SNCF GROUP 2013 ANNUAL RESULTS

Transcription

1 SNCF GROUP 2013 ANNUAL RESULTS MATHIAS EMMERICH EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, SNCF GROUP FINANCE, PURCHASING & INFORMATION SYSTEMS 13 FEBRUARY SNCF GROUP 2013 ANNUAL RESULTS 1

2 HIGHLIGHTS In a difficult economy, SNCF Group s 2013 revenue was up (+0.5%) EBITDA proved very resilient Recurring net profit was a robust 582 million Negative net profit was due to write-down of TGV rolling stock High investment Free cash flow rose sharply Debt was stable 2

3 3 BACKGROUND

4 THE ECONOMY WAS DIFIFICULT IN 2013 LIMITED GROWTH IN GDP WEAK GROWTH IN CONSUMER SPENDING +0.3% +0.2% 4

5 THERE WERE MAJOR CONSTRAINTS RISE IN TRACK ACCESS CHARGES ENGINEERING WORKS +13.5% NATIONWIDE, WITH A PARTICULAR FOCUS ON UPGRADES IN THE GREATER PARIS REGION 5

6 THAT HIT GROUP BUSINESS ACROSS THE BOARD CONTINUED RECESSION IN FREIGHT DECLINE IN PASSENGER TRAFFIC TREND % CHANGE IN REVENUE TREND % CHANGE TGV Intercités TER Transilien -0.7% -1.4% -1.4% -1,8% SNCF Geodis -5.6% TGV Intercités TER Transilien 6

7 7 SNCF GROUP IN 2013

8 WARNING CHANGES IN ACCOUNTING STANDARDS APPLIED TO CONSOLIDATION (IFRS 10, 11 AND 12) Since January 1, 2013, SNCF has applied new IFRS accounting standards for consolidation. Joint ventures, previously consolidated under the proportionate method, are now consolidated using the equity method. These include: SNCF Proximités division: Keolis UK joint ventures (including London Midland, First, London South Eastern Railway and Southern Railway) SNCF Voyages division: Eurostar, Westbahn SNCF Geodis division: Chemfreight GmbH within Ermewa unit (equipment management) The revenue and expenses of these joint ventures thus no longer appear in SNCF Group s consolidated income statement. Instead, their net result alone appears as a line item: Share in results of companies consolidated under the equity method. 8

9 IN THIS DIFFICULT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, REVENUE EDGED UP +0.5% REVENUE IN BN* +0,5 % 32,22 32, % rise (vs projected +2.5%) Steep rise for SNCF Infra division (+4.2%) and moderate rise for SNCF Proximités (+1.1%) Declines for SNCF Voyages (-1.4%) and SNCF Geodis (-1.8%) Excluding SNCF Infra division, international business represents 24% of the total** * At constant scope of consolidation and exchange rates * * Including Keolis in the UK and Eurostar in particular 28% of total business volume is outside France 9

10 REVENUE BY DIVISION M +1.1%*** 11,964 11, % +4.2%** 6, % , , %** * * * * * 2013 SNCF INFRA SNCF PROXIMITÉS SNCF VOYAGES SNCF GEODIS GARES & CONNEXIONS * Pro forma ** Restated for the transfer of SNCF building maintenance previously managed by the SNCF Infra division to the Gares & Connexions division effective January 1, 2013 *** Excludes the impact of accounting for the new agreement between Transilien (Paris Region Railway services) and STIF (Paris Region Transport Autoritie), and the sale of receivables. 10

11 GROUP REVENUE EDGES UP GROWTH IN REVENUE AT CONSTANT SCOPE OF CONSOLIDATION AND EXCHANGE RATES 7.3% 5.9% 5.3% 6.0% 6.1% 3.5% 3.6% 3.9% 3.5% 2.0% 2.3% 2.4% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% -0.8% -2.8% -2.5% -1.9% -7.4% -3.9% +4.1% +5.8% +3.0% +0.5% T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T (*) Data excludes Cézembre effect starting in Q (*) 2013 vs 2012 applying IFRS and IAS 19 (revised) T (*) T T (*) (*) 11

12 EBITDA PROVES RESISTANT THANKS TO FIRM CONTROL OF COSTS EBITDA BN 2,75 2,80 Altogether, gross profit (EBITDA) rose from 8.5% of revenue in 2012 to 8.7% in 2013 Variable performance: rise at SNCF Geodis including Fret SNCF, decline at SNCF Voyages Performance plan generated 225 million in savings on structural costs

13 EBITDA BY DIVISION M 2011 proforma (1) 2012 proforma (1) % of revenue % of revenue 11.4% of revenue % of revenue % of revenue SNCF INFRA SNCF PROXIMITÉS SNCF VOYAGES SNCF GEODIS GARES & CONNEXIONS (1) 2012 and 2011 data including impact of new IFRS Rail Freight (TFM) SNCF GEODIS excl. Rail Freight (TFM)

14 FIRM CONTROL OF INTERNAL OPERATING COSTS HELPS OFFSET STAGNANT SALES COMPARISON OF TRENDS AT CONSTANT SCOPE OF CONSOLIDATION AND EXCHANGE RATES(1) OPERATING COSTS AND GROUP REVENUE 2012 PRO FORMA VS 2013 % CHANGE Revenue +0.5% Track access charges +3.1% Energy / fuel -0.2% External costs: +1.2% Tax and duties -3,2% Personnel costs Other expenses excluding income from CICE(*) ** -0.3% +2.0% * Internal costs: +0.9% (excl. CICE) Total operating expenses +0.2% * Incl. Impact of CICE (new tax credit: Crédit d Impôt pour la Compétitivité et l Emploi). other expenses are down -2.3% (1) Excluding book impact of agreement between Transilien and STIF and sale of financial receivables 14

15 DECLINE IN NET PROFIT DUE MAINLY TO IMPAIRMENT LOSS ON TGV ROLLING STOCK RECURRING NET PROFIT M NET PROFIT (ATTRIBUTABLE TO EQUITY HOLDERS OF THE PARENT COMPANY EN M * * 2013 * Pro forma 15

16 NON-RECURRING ITEMS CUT NET PROFIT BY MILLION IN 2013 M M recurring net profit Additional Impairment loss on TGV assets Reversal of impairment loss on SNCF Infra assets Other 2013 Net profit 16

17 TGV PROFITABILITY, SUFFERING FROM ECONOMIC CRISIS SINCE 2008, WORSENED BY ONGOING RISE IN TRACK ACCESS CHARGES 18% 20% 14% TGV TRACK ACCESS FEES +7.4% / year from 2007 to % % 12.6% % EBITDA / REVENUE TGV TRACK ACCESS FRANCE (RFF) IN M SNCF VOYAGES EBITDA EXCLUDING TRACK ACCESS FEES SNCF VOYAGES EBITDA SNCF VOYAGES DIVISION INITIATIVES IMPROVED EBITDA (EXCLUDING TRACK ACCESS FEES)/ REVENUE RATIO IN 2013 (+0.5%) 17 Pro forma: EBITDA excluding Eurostar

18 2013 DECLINE RESULTS FROM 5 FACTORS 1 CRISIS Revenue down sharply due to sluggish growth: GDP, household spending and inflation indicators all declined significantly from 2011 to For 2014: Projected 0.6% rise in GDP in 2013 test**simulation? (vs 1.6% in 2011 test**) Projected 0.3% rise in household spending in 2013 test** (vs 1.1% in 2011 test**) 2 TRACK FEES Mechanical impact of the steep, steady and ongoing rise in track access charges boosted TGV s contributions to network financing 3 ASSETS Rise in value of TGV assets of M from 2011 (post impairment loss) to 2013 with acquisition of new trainsets. Negative impact on cash flows of agreement signed with Alstom in 2013 and early** renewal (future TGV) 4 FARES Rise in VAT rate (7% to 10% starting in 2014) Development and launch***ok? of promotional fares to offset stagnant household spending Reduction in subsidies received for low social fares** 5 NEW DES- TINATIONS Cost of adding additional trains on the new Southern Europe-Atlantic seaboard line for 2017 launch 18

19 INVESTMENT REMAINS HIGH, FREE CASH FLOW IS POSITIVE AND DEBT IS STABILIZING INVESTMENT BN FREE CASH FLOW M NET INDEBTEDNESS BN 2,1 2,2 251 * 464 7,52 7, * Excluding the exceptional sale of financial recievables related to Transilien rolling stock ( 952 million) 19

20 INVESTMENT POLICY VERY SUBSTANTIAL OUTLAYS CONTINUE 3,171 M TOTAL INVESTMENT INCLUDING OUTLAYS FINANCED BY TRANSPORT ORGANIZING AUTHORITIES 2,240 M INVESTMENTS MADE BY SNCF ROLLING STOCK Francilien trains in the Greater Paris region Tram-Train trainsets TGV high-speed trainsets Locomotives Rolling stock for Keolis, Geodis, STVA, Akiem and Ermewa 66% 34% OTHER FIXED ASSETS Station renovations incl. Greater Paris Technicentres and repair shops Passenger information systems Maintenance equipment for tracks and bridges Business information systems 20

21 FREE CASH FLOW UP M FROM 2012, REACHING M IN 2013 CHANGE IN GROUP FREE CASH FLOW FROM 2012* M 1, PRO FORMA ,232 1,344 1, M ** M ** Taux de couverture par CAF 91% Taux de couverture par CAF 100% CAF - 2,077 Investment / Own funds - 2,240 Disposals FCF CAF Investment / Disposals FCF Own funds 21 * Pro forma ** Excludes book impact of agreement between Transilien and STIF and sale of receivables

22 NET INDEBTEDNESS OF 7.4 BN AT YEAR-END 2013, DOWN M CHANGE IN GROUP NET INDEBTEDNESS ( M) M Free cash flow reducing debt by M Endettement Financier Net 12/2012 publié Impact normes Endettement Financier Net 12/2012 proforma Effets périmètre Encaissements cessions CAF Investissements sur fonds propres Dividendes versés à l'etat Autres (dont variation du BFR Impôt) Endettement Financier Net 12/2013 Endettement Financier Net Budget 12/

23 2013 GEARING: 1.1, UNCHANGED FROM 2012 RESTATED NET INDEBTEDNESS/EBITDA RATIO: 4.6, BETTER THAN IN NET INDEBTEDNESS / OWN FUNDS (GEARING) (GROUP) 2013 Gearing of 1.1: unchanged from Pro forma 2012 Pro forma 2013 SNCF Group Excl. Fret SNCF Pro forma 2012 Pro forma 2013 RESTATED NET INDEBTEDNESS* / EBITDA (GROUP) Improved ratio in 2013 (4.6 vs 4.8 in 2012) (*) Restated by rating agencies (S&P) 23

24 TARGETS

25 2014 OUTLOOK: SEVERE CONSTRAINTS AHEAD Economy shows signs of a moderate recovery, but outlook tempered by severe constraints: PUBLIC FUNDING Transport Organizing Authorities under increasing pressure TAXES VAT on domestic passenger fares up from 7% to 10% Corporate profits tax up from 36.1% to 38.0% TRACK ACCESS FEES Up +4.8% 2014 projections: Freight volumes stagnant Modest growth in passenger rail travel, with slight contraction possible (-0.3%) for SNCF Voyages division 25

26 2014 OUTLOOK: SEVERE CONSTRAINTS AHEAD Yet SNCF s financial targets for 2014 are in line with the financial performance defined for the first year of its Excellence 2020 programme: REVENUE GROWTH > +2.0% Thanks to strong momentum at SNCF Infra and international growth for Keolis (major calls for tender in Britain, Australia and North America) GROWTH IN GROSS PROFIT (EBITDA) at SNCF Geodis and Keolis offsetting difficulties at SNCF Voyages INVESTMENT HIGH AT 2.3 BN Continued acquisition and renovation of rolling stock and refurbishment of stations in the Greater Paris region BALANCED FREE CASH FLOW AND FIRM CONTROL OF DEBT To meet these 2014 targets, SNCF must pursue its performance programme relentlessly, generating 350 million in savings including nearly 2/3 in structural costs 26

27 THANK YOU. SNCF GROUP 2013 ANNUAL RESULTS 13 FEBRUARY