The Arctic Climate Change and Security Policy Conference

Transcription

1 The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece Fial Report ad Fidigs Keeth S. Yalowitz James F. Collis Ross A. Virgiia Istitute for Applied Circumpolar Policy

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3 The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece Fial Report ad Fidigs* December 1 3, 2008 Dartmouth College Haover, New Hampshire USA Sposored by the Dickey Ceter for Iteratioal Uderstadig at Dartmouth College, the Caregie Edowmet for Iteratioal Peace, ad the Uiversity of the Arctic Istitute for Applied Circumpolar Policy Keeth S. Yalowitz, Ambassador (ret.) Director, Dickey Ceter for Iteratioal Uderstadig Dartmouth College James F. Collis, Ambassador (ret.) Seior Associate ad Director, Russia ad Eurasia Program Caregie Edowmet for Iteratioal Peace Washigto, D.C. Ross A. Virgiia Dickey Ceter for Iteratioal Uderstadig Director, Istitute of Arctic Studies Professor of Evirometal Studies Dartmouth College * This coferece report summarizes the itegrated discussios that emerged from four focused paels, but its fidigs ad policy recommedatios are the sole resposibility of the authors. Istitute for Applied Circumpolar Policy

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5 Table of Cotets Executive Summary ad Key Fidigs 1 Coferece Summary 5 Sciece ad Policy 9 Ecoomics, Resources, ad Developmet 12 Political ad Security Issues 15 Goverace ad Istitutios 18 Coclusios 21 Policy Recommedatios 23 Participat List 25 Ackowledgmets 28

6 Source: Uiversity of Texas Libraries, The Uiversity of Texas at Austi

7 Executive Summary ad Key Fidigs The pace of chage i the Arctic due to global climate coditios demads that greater attetio be focused o the regio, its eeds ad the issues surroudig its developmet over the ear ad itermediate term. The implicatios for U.S. citizes i the regio ad importat U.S. security, ecoomic, evirometal, ad political iterests as a result of chages i the Arctic are profoud. The preset global fiacial crisis has relieved some of the moutig pressure for Arctic ecoomic ad resource developmet. Durig this hiatus, the U.S. should seize the opportuity to address critical eeds i ad aroud the Arctic regio to esure a sustaiable future for the Arctic eviromet ad its people. As a first priority, the U.S. should ratify the Uited Natios Covetio o the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The Presidet should create a sub-cabiet commissio o global warmig headed by the Vice Presidet that elevates the importace of Arctic issues related to climate chage ad its effect o people, ecosystems, ad ecoomies, ad esures iteragecy coordiatio ad cross-discipliary egagemet. The U.S. should support ad promote a stroger role for the Arctic Coucil as the pricipal iteratioal forum for addressig Arctic issues. New measures should iclude support for a permaet secretariat for the Coucil, alog with adequate fudig to support effective program coordiatio, scietific research priorities, ad attetio to the icreasig iteratioal iterest i the Arctic, particularly by Chia, the EU, ad Japa. The U.S. should support Arctic sub-regioal forums, such as the Norther Forum, where issues ad research of commo cocer ca effectively be addressed o a regioal basis. The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 1

8 Arctic evirometal security should receive priority attetio as the key regioal security issue. The regio s most pressig eed is the developmet of a effective mechaism ad protocol for respodig to evirometal disasters, ad cotigecy plaig to esure regioal ad iteratioal cooperatio i respose to evirometal or atural calamities. Fishig, tourism, ad eergy developmet require special attetio. Note: Sice this coferece was held, there have bee sigificat ew developmets such as the Presidetial Directive o Arctic Regioal Policy, a ew Russia Federatio Arctic policy statemet, ew scietific evidece regardig the role of black carbo/carbo soot i the Arctic, ad the first ever joit meetig of the Arctic Coucil ad the Atarctic Treaty parters. These evets do ot chage the teor or fudametal fidigs ad recommedatios of this coferece report. The Presidetial Directive o Arctic Regioal Policy (Jauary 9, 2009) icludes recommedatios cosistet with the coclusios set forth by our coferece experts. We must ow esure that the Directive s calls for chage are implemeted. We are curretly preparig a study that we hope will accelerate that process. 2 y Fial Report ad Fidigs

9 Key Fidigs A. As a major Arctic power, the U.S. has resposibility for stewardship ad protectio of vital evirometal, security, ecoomic, ad political iterests i the Arctic regio. B. The failure of the U.S. to ratify UNCLOS weakes the ability of all istitutios i the iteratioal system, as well as the America govermet, to advace U.S. iterests i developig stroger regioal goverace. C. Global warmig is acceleratig the pace at which climate chage is affectig the Arctic regio as well as climatic ad evirometal coditios i the U.S. D. While evidece that global warmig is affectig both the Arctic regio ad the world s eviromet is icotrovertible, the scietific basis for uderstadig these pheomea ad the iformatio available for makig policy decisios remais iadequate. E. I order to defie issues for decisio ad set priorities for actio, govermets should demad accelerated scietific study of issues critical to iformed policy makig ad should be willig to fud eeded research. The scietific commuity must work i closer coordiatio with policy ad political decisio makers to reach a better mutual appreciatio ad uderstadig of each other s eeds ad processes. F. The preset global ecoomic slowdow provides a much-eeded hiatus i Arctic commercial pressures durig which importat Arctic powers could work o developig coordiated rules ad best practices by which to gover the developmet of Arctic resources. G. While global warmig is expadig the opportuities available for Arctic resource extractio, the pace of developmet will be govered more by ecoomic cosideratios, commodity pricig i particular, tha by possible greater access due to climate chage. Moreover, sice ice cover will remai for much of the year, eve shippig will remai difficult ad treacherous. H. Global warmig will sigificatly affect regioal ecoomies, their fish ad wildlife resources, ad the livelihood of peoples livig i the Arctic. These cosequeces already have begu to affect the lives of idigeous peoples egaged i subsistece ecoomies ad large-scale Alaska developmet projects. I. Despite alarmist predictios of a ew great game, the prospect for a sigificat cofrotatio amog Arctic powers over resources, boudaries, or claims is ow low. The Uited Natios Covetio o the Law of The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 3

10 the Sea (UNCLOS) provides a sigificat body of rules ad precedet to adjudicate the majority of disagreemets. Most regios with resources at stake are govered uder the rules of the 200-mile ecoomic zoe. Where there are disputed regimes or boudaries, these remai subject to accommodatio by the parties ivolved, i particular the U.S. ad Caada. J. The key security issue cofrotig the Arctic powers will be evirometal ad political. Rules cotrollig shippig, emissios, pollutio, ad lad use are weak, ad eforcemet mechaisms are iadequate. The eed for large-scale ecosystem-based maagemet regimes to protect the itegrity of the Arctic Ocea is receivig icreasig attetio, icludig proposals for a Arctic Treaty or Park i order to maage ad protect the Arctic Ocea as a iteratioal commos. K. The Arctic does ot led itself to a ew treaty regime similar to that which has govered Atarctica (Treaty System). However, there is a clear eed for more robust istitutioal goverace to address issues that are becomig more acute as evirometal chage accelerates ad regioal developmet pressures rise. L. The rights ad lifestyle of idigeous peoples demad cotiuous attetio from govermets, ad the voice of Native peoples must be cetral to decisios o maagemet of Arctic issues ad claims. M. A key issue i Arctic goverace is fidig the appropriate balace betwee atioal iterests ad actios ad the iterests ad role of the iteratioal commuity. N. Curretly the istitutio most broadly supported by the Arctic states is the Arctic Coucil, which addresses the rage of goverace issues arisig i the regio. It works o the basis of cosesus ad has o role o security issues. However, the Coucil eeds stroger support ad backig from leadig coutries, icludig the U.S. Sub-regioal orgaizatios withi Arctic atios have become importat sources of support for developmet ad coordiatio of Arctic policy. 4 y Fial Report ad Fidigs

11 Coferece Summary Sciece has provided overwhelmig evidece of huma-iflueced Arctic climate chage ad the likelihood that the pace of chage is acceleratig. The effects are ad will be felt aroud the world i the eviromet, weather ad oceaographic coditios, commercial shippig ad fishig, exploitatio of atural resources ad eergy, agriculture, ad wildlife. Idigeous peoples way of life is chagig, ad ew health ad disease cocers are arisig as climate chages i the North. If this were ot sufficiet cause for the urget attetio of policy makers, cocers also have arise about whether the Arctic could become the focal poit for a ew great game of power politics if the pricipal Arctic coastal states the U.S., Russia, ad Caada seek to escalate their claims to rich Arctic resources ad sea beds through political or military meas. I short, the issue may be stated as follows: The Arctic is curretly experiecig rapid systemic chage with multiple ecoomic, social, political, ad security implicatios that are still imprecisely uderstood. Whether this plays out amog the states ad parties cocered through iteratioal cooperatio, or competitio ad possible coflict, is a vital ad debated questio. Are the curret istitutios, treaties, ad forums for Arctic goverace adequate to deal with these challeges? Do o-state parties, pricipally idigeous peoples ad NGOs, as well as o-arctic states ad bodies such as Chia, Japa, ad the EU, have adequate represetatio i the deliberatios? How has the global fiacial ad ecoomic crisis impacted the pathway ad timig of the developmet of Arctic resources? Ad fially, ca the dialogue betwee scietists ad the policy commuity be improved to help address these multiple issues? These ad related questios were the subject of a coferece held at Dartmouth College i Haover, New Hampshire, December 1 3, 2008, o the subject of Arctic climate chage ad security policy. The three co-sposorig orgaizatios were the Dickey Ceter for Iteratioal Uderstadig at Dartmouth ad its Istitute of Arctic Studies, the Caregie Edowmet for Iteratioal Peace, ad the Uiversity of the Arctic. The coferece brought together a iteratioal group of academics, scietists, govermet officials, The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 5

12 6 y Fial Report ad Fidigs ad represetatives of idigeous peoples for a free-ragig, multi-discipliary discussio of the sigificat scietific, ecoomic, political ad security, ad goverace issues facig the Arctic over the ext years. The coferece was the iaugural evet for the Uiversity of the Arctic Istitute for Applied Circumpolar Policy (IACP), established by Dartmouth ad the Uiversity of Alaska at Fairbaks, i collaboratio with Urbaa Uiversity. I keepig with the missio of the Istitute, the meetig was shaped to create iterdiscipliary dialog amog scietists, policy makers, ad idigeous peoples i a eviromet that ecouraged ope ad frak discussio of issues ad solutios.

13 Paels ad specific questios addressed durig backgroud presetatios ad discussio: PANEL I: Climate Chage The Chagig Arctic What are the curret major areas of scietific research about the Arctic ad what are the kowledge gaps? What do scietists see as the most importat issues ad research priorities? What scietific judgmets will policy makers eed to make iformed decisios? What is the state of dialog betwee sciece ad policy makers ad how best ca sciece iform them? Do the priorities match? PANEL II: Ecoomic Opportuities What is the kowledge base o resources (e.g., oil, gas, fish) i the North that are uder pressure at the preset, or i the ear future? What is happeig already i terms of ecoomic activity, shipbuildig, port costructio, ivestmet, ad developmet as a result of climate chage ad ew marie coditios? What are the major atioal ad iteratioal cocers i developig shippig, tourism, ad eergy exploratio ad the impact o idigeous peoples? What are the effects of the curret fiacial crisis o the prospects ad timig for Arctic developmet? PANEL III: The Political ad Security Dimesios Maagig Future Challeges Is a ew great game amog coutries over resources ad boudaries comig or will cooperatio ad cosesus prevail? What ca we lear from how coutries are already pursuig their iterests? What isights do sciece ad political sciece provide? How do we get policy makers to focus o these issues? The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 7

14 PANEL IV: Istitutioal ad Goverace Challeges What are the relevat iteratioal istitutios, orgaizatios, ad agreemets that deal with the Arctic? What are the legal ifrastructure ad eforcemet mechaisms? Are these mechaisms adequate i view of the challeges foresee ad, if ot, what may be eeded? Are these istitutios ad mechaisms broad eough to ecompass the iterests of o-member coutries ad parties such as Chia, Japa, ad the EU, ad various orgaizatios represetig idigeous peoples ad other stakeholder groups? What if the U.S. does or does ot joi the Law of the Sea Treaty? This coferece summary is ot iteded as a exhaustive ad fully documeted aalysis of Arctic climate chage ad associated security issues. I respose to this report, a more focused aalysis of policy optios ad goverace structures for the Arctic is i preparatio. Rather, we attempt to provide a syopsis of the most pressig policy issues idetified by a diverse ad highly qualified set of experts. This summary is followed by a set of policy recommedatios that we feel give the accelerated rate of evirometal chage i the Arctic, the chage i leadership i the U.S. govermet, ad the worldwide ecoomic dowtur are pressig. 8 y Fial Report ad Fidigs

15 Sciece ad Policy Climate sciece is uambiguous our plaet is a set of closely liked physical systems of lad, water, ad atmosphere i which the Arctic is itegral. Global warmig is affectig the world s weather, ad sea ice i the Arctic is meltig ad thiig rapidly, decliig 15% every decade over the recet past. Moreover, the pace of chage is acceleratig. Greehouse gas emissios from idustrial pollutio ad lad use chages are the key factors. Recet studies suggest that black carbo emitted from idustrial combustio ad boreal forest fires are resposible for up to half of the observed warmig i the Arctic. Aalysis of ice core records shows that, i the past, abrupt, sigificat chages i Arctic temperatures occurred over short time scales, years to decades. Some scietists argue that we are already approachig or have reached tippig poits i the climate system where large chage is possible agai, with serious cosequeces for coupled huma-atural systems. As the scietific uderstadig of climate chage advaces, policy makers are iudated with crisis maagemet decisios. The Arctic ad climate chage must compete for their attetio. To date, a commuicatio gap persists amog scietists ad policy makers. Thus, there is a eed for sciece to commuicate more effectively ad accurately ad to develop better qualitative ad quatitative models ad frameworks with which to iform policy makers. Models, as abstractios of complex atural ad coupled huma systems, are amog the most effective meas to preset the best sciece to decisio makers. The latter, however, must be aware of the assumptios, limitatios, ad ucertaities of models, ad the modelers must do their best to explai ad quatify these ukows. Ideed, eve the models used i the most recet (2007) Itergovermetal Pael o Climate Chage report did ot capture the accelerated chages observed i the behavior of sea ice ad ice sheets that scietists are recordig. Greater participatio by ative observers ad coordiatio of the extesive etwork of weather observig statios ad field research statios, if adequately fuded through programs such as AON (Arctic Observig Network) ad SAON (Sustaied Arctic Observig Networks), could provide ew opportuities to icrease the empirical base for scietific modelig. These models of real world problems are essetial aids for meetig the eeds of The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 9

16 10 y Fial Report ad Fidigs Arctic shippig ad resource developmet ad for ecouragig meaigful commuicatio betwee the sciece ad policy commuities. Sciece policy decisios are made i a fluid political eviromet i which trade-offs are costatly required at differet levels of scale ad with differig iterests ad stakeholders. I this cotext, sciece must be relevat if it is to meet people s eeds ad help sustai iterest i the set of issues facig policy makers. Scietific iformatio eeds to be provided o a timely basis (keepig pace with evirometal ad political chages) ad i a precise fashio, with a objective aalysis of the cosequeces of differet approaches clearly spelled out. If the goal of sciece is to iform policy, the political ad research timelies also must be uderstood. Policy makers, o the other had, should be literate i sciece ad committed to usig sciece i reachig decisios. Both policy makers ad scietists eed to uderstad their respective time costraits for reachig decisios. I order to compete for fudig of the best basic ad applied sciece, scietists must uderstad ad appreciate the decisio makers ad what their skills ad motivatios are for watig scietific iformatio. Scietists must tailor their messages to treasuries, which icreasigly are playig a importat decisio-makig role. More broadly, the pressig challege we cofrot is to wi sufficiet attetio from policy makers to push Arctic sciece ad policy issues closer to the top of the list of atioal ad iteratioal policy priorities. Amog the most cetral scietific research eeds for uderstadig Arctic chage ad its huma dimesios are better iformatio o 1) chages i sea ice, sow coverage, ad ice sheet behavior, 2) regioal scale variatio i climate chage, 3) emissios, trasport, ad accumulatio of idustrial pollutats, 4) global likages betwee the Arctic Ocea ad Arctic climate, 5) ecological ad social idicators of the health of the Arctic, 6) mechaisms causig abrupt climate chage, ad 7) modelig of lad, ocea, ad atmosphere iteractios. We must determie whether we are reachig tippig poits beyod which these systems are o loger resiliet. To achieve these iformatio eeds, more fudig for iteratioally-coordiated programs is required to provide moitorig for climate chage ad chages i idustrial pollutats that affect the health of ecosystems ad humas. Meetig these goals requires policies that coordiate the research programs of the Arctic states. Idigeous peoples are cetral stakeholders i the process of scietific assessmet ad policy for a sustaiable Arctic. Idigeous observers ad their traditioal kowledge are a uderutilized asset i evaluatig ad uderstadig the processes cotributig to rapid evirometal chage. Wester researchers eed to egage further with idigeous commuities ad orgaizatios to

17 build bods of commuicatio ad trust ad together develop a body of scietific iformatio that values ad itegrates idigeous kowledge o climate chage ad adaptatio. Likewise, Wester scietists must make their research accessible ad uderstadable to idigeous peoples ad fully ivolve them i formulatig research questios ad i coductig the work. Orgaizatios such as the Iuit Circumpolar Coucil (ICC) ad the other idigeous groups represeted at the Arctic Coucil provide a gateway for brigig Wester sciece expertise together with idigeous sciece. Iovative educatioal programs are eeded to esure that the ext geeratio of polar scietists ad egieers will have the scietific kowledge ad commuicatio skills to coduct research that beefits Arctic residets. The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 11

18 Ecoomics, Resources, ad Developmet If there is to be a ew great game i the Arctic, the the large eergy resources of the regio ad coflictig claims over the sea beds cotaiig them may be the triggerig aget. Questios aboud. What is the resource potetial of the Arctic? Are these resources already beig tapped? Does climate chage offer greater accessibility ad developmet? Is the curret ecoomic ad fiacial world crisis affectig the pace of developmet? The Arctic regio is ideed a storehouse of atural riches gas, oil, diamods, coal, iro ore, gold, zic, ickel, ad others. Developmet of oreewable resources has bee goig o for four decades. I terms of shippig, globalizatio of the Arctic ad the coditio of the global ecoomy are the biggest issues, ot climate chage. Large umbers of ships are already i the Arctic for may reasos, more tha 6,000 aually for tourism, fishig, ad trasport, mostly i summer. Tourism ad fishig i the Barets ad Berig Seas are rapidly icreasig ad few of these ships are ice-hardeed. Also, fishig patters ad locatios are chagig i respose to climate ad the altered sustaiability of some fish stocks. Much of today s Arctic shippig is withi the North ad ot itercotietal, ad prospects for log-distace trasportatio are still ucertai. There has bee great public fafare about orther sea routes ad the Northwest Passage opeig up for loger time periods due to sea ice melt ad cheaper coectios betwee Asia ad Europe. I fact, there is much ucertaity amogst shippig experts about whether or uder what coditios these routes will be ecoomical. Eve uder accelerated climate warmig, sea ice will remai i place for 6 8 moths, ad potetially dagerous floatig ice will remai year roud, ecessitatig the use of ice breakers for witer shippig routes ad ships desiged to meet the rigors of the Arctic Ocea eviromet. But there are importat safety ad evirometal issues. Arctic shippig today is regulated by volutary guidelies ad icosistet ad ad hoc goverace regulatios. There is a pressig eed for stable, rule-based regimes based o the UNCLOS ad IMO (Iteratioal Maritime Orgaizatio) rules for iteratioal marie coordiatio i the Arctic o safety, emissio, ad ifrastructure 12 y Fial Report ad Fidigs

19 issues. The specter of a major icidet with loss of life o a cruise ship i the Arctic is real ad caot be igored. Miig, extractio, ad eergy exploitatio i the Arctic have bee goig o for some time. The largest zic mie i the world (Red Dog Mie i Northwester Alaska) ad the largest ickel mie i the world (Norilsk Mie i orther Siberia) are located there, ad prospects are good for developmet of gold, diamods, ad cocetrated ores i Greelad ad elsewhere. Climate chage affects the timig of these projects ad creates ucertaities i forward plaig. I this area, sciece ca play a major role. Firms eed good scietific data to calculate shippig ad commodity prices. But the most importat factors affectig short-term ecoomic developmet are prices ad costs, ot climate chage, ad here the curret severe ecoomic dowtur is havig major effects. Charters for large ore carriers are ruig at oe percet of ormal rates, ad ew or expaded Arctic projects are beig delayed by paralysis i global credit markets. It is importat to ote that idigeous corporatios are a major factor i Arctic ecoomic developmet, ad resource developmet projects i may of the Arctic states caot go ahead without the approval ad participatio of idigeous peoples. There remais, however, a great eed to esure that idigeous stakeholders are full participats i decisios regardig resource developmet, trasport, ad commerce. The mai ecoomic prizes i the Arctic are oil ad gas ad mieral resources. The primary reserves belog to Russia, ad the major exploratio activity also is theirs. Recet estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey are that 30% of the remaiig world reserves of atural gas ad some 10% of the oil are i the Arctic. To date, uresolved issues ivolvig demarcatio of sea beds uder the UNCLOS are ot a major issue i the pace of eergy developmet; rather, the key factors are costs of developmet ad the price cycle of oil ad gas. Offshore projects are the most costly ad evirometally dagerous, ad most of the kow reserves of oil ad gas are withi atioal Exclusive Ecoomic Zoes (EEZs), which exted 200 autical miles from the coastlie. Thus, immediate prospects for iterstate coflict over oil ad gas reserves appear small. Of the Arctic coastal states, Russia, Caada, Norway, ad the U.S. are the most focused o Arctic resource developmet. As the ew Russia Arctic policy statemet (September 18, 2008) uderscores, this regio is of major importace for eergy productio, the ecoomy, ad atioal security. Russia is begiig to focus o off-shore developmet, but it eeds foreig techology to succeed over the short term. Their curret regulatios ad procedures, however, do ot favor foreig ivolvemet ad ivestmet. They could succeed over time without iteratioal parters, but they will edure short-term problems i doig so. The potetially eormous Shtokma off-shore oil ad gas field is scheduled for first drillig i 2010 ad exploitatio i 2015, but this could be delayed. Shtokma is iterestig because of the role of Statoil/ The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 13

20 14 y Fial Report ad Fidigs Hydro ad Total. It has a uique owership procedure that allows some scope for foreig ivolvemet. The iteratioal fiacial crisis will impact Arctic eergy developmet. Fuel prices are volatile ad fallig overall, but so are may developmet costs. The balace betwee ivestmet ad retur is ot favorig large ew projects i the Arctic. This situatio could cause the idustry to focus o more o-shore developmet i North America ad i locatios with more hospitable climes where productio ad trasportatio costs are lower. O the other had, the revaluig of the ruble might icrease Wester iterest i Russia parterships, especially if the Russias make their regulatios more attractive to foreig ivestors. Regardless of cost, there are strog icetives for private oil compaies to seek leases ad develop oil ad gas resources i the North because that it is oe place they ca still go. The political/ecoomic outlook o Arctic developmet is mixed. Cocers for eergy security will ultimately push developmet of Arctic oil ad gas, but the fiacial crisis ad slowig of world ecoomic activity is depressig eergy prices ad cosumptio ad makig it very difficult to predict the pace ad extet of developmet. As a result, there likely will ot be pell-mell developmet i the North over the ear term. This pause due to the slowdow i the global ecoomy gives the iteratioal commuity the chace to develop evirometal ad developmet rules of the game, a opportuity that should ot be lost. The challege is to wi the attetio of policy makers for implemetatio of ecoomic ad evirometal adaptatios i the North, ot just short-term mitigatio to avert a crisis. This likely decrease i the pace of ecoomic developmet affords the opportuity to better uderstad the impacts of climate chage ad developmet o the subsistece way of life for may idigeous peoples. The ecoomic ad social viability of Native commuities such as those i rural Alaska is seriously i questio. Residets are leavig those commuities for the cities, ad ecoomic adaptatio for those who remai is very problematic.

21 Political ad Security Issues What are the political ad security ramificatios of climate chage o the Arctic? Durig the Cold War the Arctic was a security flashpoit with U.S. ad Soviet uclear submaries patrollig uder the North Pole ad bombers airbore over the regio. Today, the Arctic is disassociated from great power politics, but will that remai the case? How will govermets defie their iterests i the regio i cooperatio with other states, or will they see the Arctic as a zoe of competitio ad possible coflict? How ca the attetio of policy makers be directed to Arctic issues without stokig competitio? The press has highlighted recet actios by states to ehace their territorial claims, but is the situatio really heatig up? Coutries with military/security iterests ad aval capacity i the Arctic are Russia, Caada, Norway, Demark, ad the U.S. Russia has bee the headlie grabber with the Chiligarov expeditio platig a Russia flag o the sea bed uder the North Pole ad the resumptio of bomber overflights. Russia s activities could be disruptive to the regio if its recet focus o politics ad territorial claims retais priority over icreased attetio to sciece ad iteratioal cooperatio. The drivig factors may be Russia prestige, idetity, ad image, which coverge o borders ad territorial claims. For Russia, sovereigty i the Arctic is a hard security issue. Russia military iterests ceter o the Kola Peisula, home to the Russia uclear submarie fleet, ad o rebuildig the Norther fleet. A ukow factor is whether the submitted Russia seabed territorial claims uder the UNCLOS will be upheld. A egative decisio might provide icetive for Russia to act uilaterally, although this prospect is ulikely. Eve if this happes, we do ot foresee clashes over resources, or is a full-blow arms race i the Arctic likely. Ad there will be o uclear testig. Russia Arctic policy ivolves may actors ad iterests with a clear policy lie ot always evidet. Russias agree that evirometal security is a importat Arctic issue ad that pollutio from outside the Arctic must be reduced. They are ot iterested i a ew iteratioal fault lie over the Arctic. Caada has ever had sigificat military capabilities i the Arctic, but over the past two years it has coducted operatios there to build capacity ad presece utilizig Iuit kowledge. This reflects a overall icrease i Caadia The Arctic Climate Chage ad Security Policy Coferece y 15

22 16 y Fial Report ad Fidigs iterest i the Arctic maifested also i the Caadia IPY (Iteratioal Polar Year) program, mappig for developmet purposes, costructio of ew icebreakers, ad opeig ew research statios. I additio, Caada has iitiated the 2030 North plaig process to reshape its Arctic policies. Developmet of oil ad gas resources has depeded o world prices ad the cost of ifrastructure developmet. Caada, however, is lookig beyod the curret ecoomic dowtur to, for example, exploitatio of gas hydrates twety years i the future. It has made great progress i settlig Norther lad claims with First Natios groups. The key issue with the U.S. is whether the Northwest Passage sea route is Caadia iteral water or a iteratioal strait as claimed by the U.S. But the dispute is froze for ow by mutual agreemet. Caada is also defedig its political iterests, for example, by makig vessel otificatios i the Northwest Passage madatory ad makig clear it will ot cede aythig i the North. Will military meas be used? Probably ot. Caada aims to make its case for Arctic Ocea resources uder Article 76 of the UNCLOS. Caada is ot seekig a lad grab, ad its sovereigty claims should ot be exaggerated. Ideed, may Caadias believe that i the future the mai Arctic issue will be evirometal, ot military. Release of the revised U.S. Arctic Regioal Policy occurred i Jauary At the time of the coferece, curret policy, writte i 1994, listed meetig post Cold War atioal security ad defese eeds as a U.S. goal i the Arctic. The ew U.S. policy statemet reiterates this goal. The decliig coditio ad capacity of the U.S. ice breaker fleet, however, is a sig of disiterest o Washigto s part about military or security threats emaatig i the regio from curret disputed issues. It is also a serious limitatio o U.S. sciece i the polar regios. For Greelad, which has just approved a ew self govermet relatioship with Demark, the focus is o developig a cooperative ifrastructure i the Arctic, i.e., through the Arctic Coucil ad the Iteratioal Maritime Orgaizatio (IMO). The Ilulissat Declaratio of the five Arctic coastal states i May 2008, which pledged to use UNCLOS to resolve overlappig exteded cotietal shelf claims, has reduced some of these atioal tesios. Icelad, however, has objected to its exclusio from these discussios. Russia ad Caada have uresolved issues, but these are ot military i ature. Greelad s desire to have direct participatio i the deliberatios of Arctic states is complicated by Daish policies, which are focused o Europe ad ca be at odds with the iterests of Greeladers. The EU, Chia, ad Japa are amog the parties with growig Arctic iterests that eed to be recogized i the Arctic Coucil. Territorial claims uder UNCLOS leave some of the Arctic Ocea uclaimed ad larger zoes where there are overlappig claims. The latter icludes the Barets Sea, where for the past thirty years claims by Russia ad Norway