A Meta Analysis of U.S. Residential, Industrial, and Commercial Electricity Demand
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1 A Meta Analysis of U.S. Residential, Industrial, and Commercial Electricity Demand Prepared for the 31 st st USAEE/IAEE North American Conference Nov. 7, 1 - Austin, Texas By Carol Dahl Division of Economics and Business Colorado School of Mines and Jason Jorgensen* and Fred Joutz Department of Economics The George Washington University * Jason Jorgensen is very grateful to the NCAC for their generous support to attend and present at the Conference.
2 Objective Carol Dahl has collected over 636 articles, papers, and books published since 1951 reporting electricity elasticity estimates. We analyze a portion of the database. This presentation only focuses on electric consumption in the U.S. She intends to maintain the database and make it publically available.
3 Objective The Electricity Database contains over 8,15 ownprice, cross-price, or income elasticities collected from around the world Table 1. Complete Electricity Elasticity Database Summary Article Count Elasticities Year Min Year Max Residential USA 157 1, Residential ALL 35, Industrial USA 1 1, Industrial ALL 6 3, Commercial USA Commercial ALL Total USA 65 3, Total ALL 636 8,
4 Our Analysis We conduct a simple meta-analysis of own-price and income elasticities by: o sector, o U.S. regions, o Publication decade, o econometric methodology, o Seasonal factors, and o Appliance indicators. The sample includes 3,33 own-price and income elasticities We eliminated 31 outliers from the analysis leaving us with a total of 3, elasticities used in our analysis. This was based on economic theory and statistical evidence assuming price elasticities are negative and the income elasticities are positive.
5 Summary of Data Table 1a. Summary of Initial Total Elasticities by Sector Price Short Run Price Long Run Income Short run Income Long run Total Product Obs. Obs. Obs. Obs. Obs. El c El i El r ,73 All 1,19 1, ,33 Table 1b. Summary of Adjusted Total Elasticities by Sector Price Short Run Price Long Run Income Short run Income Long run Total Product Obs. Obs. Obs. Obs. Obs. El c El i El r ,57 All 1,15 1, , Table 1c. Summary of Outlier Elasticities Removed Price Short Run Price Long Run Income Short run Income Long run Total Product Obs. Obs. Obs. Obs. Obs. El c El i 8 El r All
6 Results We present statistics for - Short-Run Own-Price Elasticities - Long-Run Own-Price Elasticities - Short-Run Income Elasticities - Long-Run Income Elasticities 6
7 Summary of Short Run Price Elasticities 7
8 Distribution of Results for 5 Short Run Price Elasticities El-c El-c El-i El-i Histogram Kernel Normal 8
9 Summary of Long Run Price Elasticities 9
10 Distribution of Results for 1.6 Long Run Price Elasticities El-c El-c El-i El-i Histogram Kernel Normal 1
11 Summary of Short Run Income Elasticities 11
12 Distribution of Results for Short Run Income Elasticities El-c 5 El-c El-i El-i Histogram Kernel Normal 1
13 Summary of Long Run Income Elasticities 13
14 Distribution of Results for Long Run Income Elasticities El-c 1.6 El-c El-i El-i Histogram Kernel Normal 1
15 Short Run Price Elasticities by Publication Decade Histogram Kernel Normal Histogram Kernel Normal Histogram Kernel Normal Histogram Kernel Normal 15
16 Long Run Price Elasticities by Publication Decade Histogram Kernel Normal Histogram Kernel Normal Histogram Kernel Normal Histogram Kernel Normal 16
17 Short Run Income Elasticities by Publication Decade 17
18 Long Run Income Elasticities by Publication Decade 18
19 Short Run Price Elasticities by Methodology 19
20 Distribution of Results for Short Run Price Elasticities by Methodology El-c, OLQ1P1Y1Png1FloorSpc1 El-i, LE El-i, TS-Other, LE , LE-OL-P1Y1, OL-Q1P1Y1Pop1Png Histogram Kernel Normal
21 Long Run Price Elasticities by Methodology 1
22 Distribution of Results for Long Run Price Elasticities by Methodology El-c, OLQ1P1Y1Png1FloorSpc1 El-i, LE El-i, TS-Other, LE , LE-OL-P1Y1, OL-Q1P1Y1Pop1Png Histogram Kernel Normal
23 Short Run Price Elasticities by Seasonal Factors 3
24 Long Run Price Elasticities by Seasonal Factors
25 Short Run Income Elasticities by Seasonal Factors 5
26 Long Run Income Elasticities by Seasonal Factors 6
27 Conclusions We evaluated 3, elasticities by Sector, Publishing Date, Methodology, and Seasonal Factors. Results show distributions are left skewed, elasticities become more inelastic over time, Further analysis to be done: o o o o With more in-depth analysis of regional U.S. elasticities International results Sample years Regression analysis The database contains results for other types of energy such as natural gas and crude. 7
28 Thank You! Comments and Questions are Welcome 8
29 Summary of Elasticities based on Product Table a. Short Run Price Elasticities by Product Table c. Short Run Income Elasticities by Product Table c. d. a. b. Short Run Long Run Income Price Elasticities by by Product Product Mean Median Max Min Std Dev Obs Product Mean Median Max Min Std Dev Obs El c El c Product Mean Median Max Min Std Dev Obs El i El i El r El r All ,15 All El c Table b. Long Run Price Elasticities by Product Table d. Long Run Income Elasticities by Product El i Product Mean Median Max Min Std Dev Obs Product Mean Median Max Min Std Dev Obs El c El c El r El i El i El r El r All ,15 1, All ,8 All
30 Distribution of Results for 5 Short Run Price Elasticities El-c El-c El-i El-i Histogram Kernel Normal 3
31 Distribution of Results for Long Run Price Elasticities PRICE_LR by PRODUCT_SIMPLE El-c PRICE_LR byproduct_simple El-c El-i El-i Histogram Kernel Normal
32 Short Run Price Elasticities by Methodology Table a. Short-Run Price Elasticities by Product and Methodology Within Time Series Equations Only Product Model Mean Median Max Min Std Dev Obs El-Com Dynamic-Other El-Com Lagged Endogenous (LE) El-Com Lagged Q(1)P(1)Y(1)Png(1)FloorSpc(1) El-Com Time Series-Other El-Com All El-Ind Dynamic-Other El-Ind Lagged Endogenous (LE) El-Ind Time Series-Other El-Ind All El-Res Dynamic-Other El-Res Error Correction Model (EMC) El-Res Lagged Endogenous (LE) El-Res LE-Lagged P(1)Y(1) El-Res Lagged Q(1)P(1)Y(1)Pop(1)Png(1) El-Res Time Series-Other El-Res Vector ECM El-Res All All Dynamic-Other All Error Correction Model (EMC) All Lagged Endogenous (LE) All LE-Lagged P(1)Y(1) All Lagged Q(1)P(1)Y(1)Png(1)FloorSpc(1) All Lagged Q(1)P(1)Y(1)Pop(1)Png(1) All Time Series-Other All Vector ECM All All Dynamic - Other includes lagged endogenous equations or other lagged variables not specifically listed above. Time Series - Other includes equations or methodologies that do not have enough unique observations and therefore need to be combined for ease of presentation. 3
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