Introducing expanded external lending and debt statistics

Transcription

1 Introducing expanded external lending and debt statistics

2 Crown copyright This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand licence. You are free to copy, distribute, and adapt the work, as long as you attribute the work to Statistics NZ and abide by the other licence terms. Please note you may not use any departmental or governmental emblem, logo, or coat of arms in any way that infringes any provision of the Flags, Emblems, and Names Protection Act Use the wording 'Statistics New Zealand' in your attribution, not the Statistics NZ logo. Liability While all care and diligence has been used in processing, analysing, and extracting data and information in this publication, Statistics New Zealand gives no warranty it is error free and will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by the use directly, or indirectly, of the information in this publication. Citation Statistics New Zealand (2012). Introducing expanded external lending and debt statistics. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand ISBN (online) Published in December 2012 by Statistics New Zealand Tatauranga Aotearoa Wellington, New Zealand Contact Statistics New Zealand Information Centre: Phone toll-free Phone international

3 Contents List of tables Summary and purpose Introducing the external lending and debt series... 6 Benefits and uses of the new external lending and debt series... 6 External debt defined... 8 External lending and debt series connection with other published series External lending and debt series explained Sectors in the international accounts External lending and debt relationship classification Compiling the statistics Resources Legal form Appendix Financial derivatives Debt instruments versus equity Residents and non-residents of an economy References and further reading References Further reading

4 List of tables Tables by chapter 2 Introducing the external lending and debt series Main features and principle differences between BoP s three measures External lending and debt all sectors External lending and debt by sector and relationship Note: Data for the period March 2011 June 2012 is available in Excel format in the Available files box. The quarterly external lending and debt series from June 2000 to June 2012 is available on Infoshare. 4

5 1 Summary and purpose Introducing expanded external lending and debt statistics accompanies Statistic s NZ s first release of a new series about New Zealand's international lending and debt. This paper provides information about the new statistics to assist user interpretation and analysis. It also introduces the format of the new external lending and debt tables, and explains how the new series relates to existing statistics about New Zealand's balance sheet position with the rest of the world. The new external debt and lending series shows: a time series of New Zealand's external lending and debt in total and by sector the ownership relationship between the New Zealand-resident party and the nonresident counterparty of external lending and debt positions. The new external lending and debt series differs from the existing international lending and debt series published each quarter, mainly because financial derivative assets and liabilities are excluded. The main benefits of the new series include: improved comparability of New Zealand's external debt statistics with those of other countries more information provided to assist analysis of risks associated with different categories of non-resident lenders and borrowers. The new series shows net external debt was $142.1 billion at 30 June This was mainly driven by the banking sector with a net external debt position of $109.5 billion. The net external debt position between the New Zealand banking sector and: related overseas banking enterprises for intermediation purposes was $68.0 billion related overseas banking enterprises for direct investment purposes was $8.5 billion unrelated enterprises for intermediation purposes was $33.0 billion. Most of the banking sector net external debt is held between related parties. 5

6 2 Introducing the external lending and debt series This new series measures New Zealand's lending and borrowing positions with nonresidents as at the end of each quarter. Existing data was used to backdate the series to June The new series complements the existing international investment position (IIP) and international financial assets and liabilities measures of New Zealand's international balance sheet position. It does this by: 1. presenting this position on an external debt basis. This follows the International Monetary Fund s (IMF s) external debt methodology in excluding values for financial derivative asset and liability positions. 2. adding new information about ownership relationship between the New Zealandresident party and the non-resident counterparty of external lending and debt positions. The new investment relationship data is presented at the aggregate and sector levels. After the first release of the external lending and debt (ELD) tables (see Excel tables in the Available files box), the new tables will be included in the quarterly balance of payments (BoP) and IIP releases as tables 15 and 16. Benefits and uses of the new external lending and debt series The new series raises the profile of ELD statistics by providing additional analysis of the relationship between the New Zealand-resident party and the non-resident lending and borrowing counterparties. The ELD series will support risk analysis of the relationship between resident New Zealand borrowers and lenders, and the non-resident creditor and debtor counterparties. For example, a New Zealand-resident company's liabilities to its foreign direct investor may be seen to have less rollover (refinancing) risk than liabilities to an unrelated nonresident lender. Similarly, debt channelled through a non-resident subsidiary of the New Zealand-resident ultimate borrower may be seen as having a similar rollover risk to debt arranged directly with an unrelated non-resident lender. In both cases, there may be a higher rollover risk than debt liabilities to a foreign direct investor. The new series is backdated to June This enables tracking of New Zealand's external lending and debt by investment relationship over time. This investment relationship time series helps the analysis of how these arrangements may change over time, at both the aggregate and sector level. For example, the new series shows changes in the proportions of external debt to direct investment partners versus external debt to related parties, demonstrated in the example below. 6

7 Introducing expanded external lending and debt statistics Changes to bank sector funding during the global financial crisis The new series, external lending and debt by sector and relationship (see table 3 in this paper and table 16 in the BoP and IIP release) shows changes in the proportion of debt balances between New Zealand banks and their direct investment partners, and with their unrelated lenders. Comparing the periods June 2008 and June 2009: Bank sector debt to related parties rose as a proportion of the sectors total external debt. External debt to related parties rose from 50.3 percent of the sectors total external debt to 57.2 percent. Conversely, debt to unrelated parties fell from 41.6 percent of the sectors total external debt to 34.9 percent. Within the related party debt category, the bank sectors debt to its foreign direct investors rose while debt of the New Zealand banks to their overseas subsidiaries and branches fell. Banks debt to their foreign direct investors was 45.9 percent of total related party debt at June 2008, compared with 52.7 percent at June Conversely, debt to the banks overseas subsidiaries and branches fell from 54.1 percent to 47.3 percent of total related debt over the same period. Additionally, the ELD series will increase the comparability of New Zealand s statistics with other countries. For example, the Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes an external debt series. 7

8 Introducing expanded external lending and debt statistics External debt defined External debt is defined, at a point in time, as the outstanding amount of actual, current, and non-contingent liabilities that require the payment of principal and or interest by resident debtors at some point(s) in the future to non-resident creditors. Debt instruments involve the obligation to pay principal and/or interest in accordance with predetermined terms. In contrast, equity securities (shares) represent a claim on the residual value of an entity. Shares are regarded as a liability of the issuing entity, and are therefore excluded from external debt calculations. Contingent liabilities are excluded because conditions have to be met before a debt obligation arises. Similarly, commitments are excluded until an actual obligation to repay occurs. For example, when a loan is arranged in one period but not drawn down until a later period. The loan is not recognised as a debt liability until the funds are actually drawn down. Financial derivatives are excluded from external debt statistics because there is no principle amount advanced that is required to be repaid, and no interest accrues. Financial derivative (FD) contracts serve as a way to manage risks, such as exchange rates, interest rates or other prices, which affect the underlying contracts. External lending and debt series connection with other published series With the introduction of the ELD series, there are now three measures of New Zealand's financial liabilities and assets with the rest of the world presented in the quarterly BoP and IIP releases: table 2: International investment position table 11: International financial assets and liabilities new tables 15 and 16: External lending and debt. In addition to the above measures, the hedging survey provides additional risk analysis information for New Zealand's foreign currency external debt. The main features of and principle differences between Statistics NZ s three measures of New Zealand s financial liabilities and assets with the rest of the world are summarised in table 1. Table 1 1 Main features and principle differences between BOP s three measures 1 Main features and principle differences between BoP s three measures Main features and principle differences between BoP s three measures Difference Coverage International investment position Equity and debt instruments, including financial derivatives Table continued next page Measure International financial assets and liabilities Equity and debt instruments, including financial derivatives External lending and debt Debt and lending, equity and financial derivatives are excluded 8

9 Introducing expanded external lending and debt statistics Table 1 continued International investment position International financial assets and liabilities Assets and liabilities are presented in terms of equity and debt instruments External lending and debt Classifications used Functional classification of capital is used: direct, portfolio and other investment, reserves, and financial derivatives Directional basis of recording Modified functional classification of capital to describe creditor / debtor relationships Balance sheet basis Presentation Balance sheet basis International investment position In the IIP, a functional classification of capital is used: direct investment, portfolio investment, other investment, reserves, and financial derivatives. The significance of the functional classification is that the motivation behind, and behaviour of, the functional types of capital differs. This classification allows the relative benefits, risks, and behaviours of each type of instrument to be assessed and monitored. Direct investment in the IIP is classified as either equity, or direct investment other capital. The distinction between debt and equity is discussed in the appendix. Direct investment is typically associated with control or significant influence, exercised in a lasting relationship. In BoP and IIP methodology, a lasting relationship is established when a company owns 10 percent or more of the voting capital of another enterprise. The instruments included in direct investment include debt and equity securities, and nonnegotiable instruments such as loans and trade finance. Direct investment other capital includes all debt instruments, including negotiable debt instruments and non-negotiable instruments such as loans, and trade finance. Portfolio investment is associated with accessing capital markets to provide liquidity, flexibility, and generating a return. Portfolio investors usually attach less significance to control and lasting relationship motivations compared with direct investors. Portfolio investment is often seen as having a greater risk of, for example, sudden withdrawal (capital flight). All equity and debt positions (except for banks) that are not subject to a direct investment relationship are classified to either portfolio or other investment. Classification between these latter two categories depends on instrument type. Negotiable instruments (debt and equity securities) are classified to portfolio investment. Non-tradable instruments, for example, loans, trade finance and deposits, are classified to other investment. One of the functions of reserve assets is to provide options in times of foreign exchange market stress. The functions and motivation for holding reserves are quite different compared with the motivations of direct and portfolio investors, and is likely to result in different behaviour of the series. The IIP uses a directional basis of recording. Within direct investment, some assets and liabilities are included on each side of the account. This approach shows a direct investor's investment in a subsidiary (claims) less any liabilities to that direct investment entity (reverse investment). The value of foreign direct investment in New Zealand represents the foreign direct investor s net interest in the New Zealand enterprise. The same principles apply to New Zealand direct investment abroad. 9

10 Introducing expanded external lending and debt statistics International financial assets and liabilities The data captured in the IIP is used to produce the international financial assets and liabilities series, but is presented on a balance sheet basis, and with additional breakdowns. The additional international financial assets and liability breakdowns group the data into equity and debt assets and liabilities, enabling analysis taking account of the different characteristics and contractual obligations associated with each. A sectoral breakdown of asset and liabilities is provided, facilitating analysis of sector risks and behaviour. Also provided is international lending and debt by instrument type, currency of denomination, and residual maturity, enabling analysis of the associated behaviours and risks. External lending and debt The new external debt series complements the existing IIP and international financial assets and liabilities series by focusing only on debt instruments and extending the range and type of analysis available to users. Compared with the other two measures, the ELD excludes equity assets and liabilities, and financial derivative asset and liability positions. The series views debt and lending using the same sectors of the New Zealand resident transactors as the international financial asset and liability series, but adds a further dimension. This is done by viewing the data in terms of the relationship between the New Zealand-resident transactors and the non-resident counterparties. This relationship classification is explained further in the External lending and debt relationship classification section of chapter 3. Like the international financial assets and liabilities series, the new series uses a balance sheet approach to present data. External debt has been presented as supplementary information for limited time periods in the BoP and IIP information release for some time. A full series from June 2000 June 2012 is now available. Format of new external lending and debt tables The ELD series is presented in two tables, examples of which are presented below as tables 2 and 3 of this paper. In the BoP and IIP quarterly information release, the new tables will be labelled: External lending and debt all sectors, table 15. This series shows New Zealand external lending and debt as the aggregate of all sectors, with investment relationship breakdowns. External lending and debt by sector and relationship, table 16. This series presents data for individual sectors: the bank sector, other sector, monetary authority, and general government, with additional detail about the relationship between the New Zealand party and the non-resident party to the lending and debt positions. 10

11 Introducing expanded external lending and debt statistics Table 2 (table 15 in the BoP and IIP quarterly release) 2 External lending and debt all sectors External lending and debt all sectors At end of quarter NZ$(million) External lending Direct investment lending Lending to direct investors Lending to direct investees Related party lending, bank sector Lending to direct investors Lending to direct investees Unrelated lending External debt Direct investment debt Debt to direct investors Debt to direct investees Related party debt, bank sector Debt to direct investors Debt to direct investees Unrelated debt Net external debt External lending External debt Net position Series ref: IIPQ S5XDAA1A S5XDAA1A1 S5XDAA1A11 S5XDAA1A12 S5XDAA1A2 S5XDAA1A21 S5XDAA1A22 S5XDAA1A3 S5XDAL1A S5XDAL1A1 S5XDAL1A11 S5XDAL1A12 S5XDAL1A2 S5XDAA1A21 S5XDAA1A22 S5XDAL1A3 S5XDAA3A Quarter Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun 11

12 Introducing expanded external lending and debt statistics Table 3 (table 16 in the BoP and IIP quarterly release) 3 External lending and debt by sector and relationship External lending and debt by sector and relationship At end of quarter NZ$(million) External lending Direct investment lending Lending to direct investors Lending to direct investees Related party lending Lending to direct investors Lending to direct investees Unrelated lending External debt Direct investment debt Debt to direct investors Debt to direct investees Related party debt Debt to direct investors Debt to direct investees Unrelated debt Net external debt External lending Direct investment lending Lending to direct investors Lending to direct investees Unrelated lending External debt Direct investment debt Debt to direct investors Debt to direct investees Unrelated debt Net external debt External lending Direct investment lending Lending to direct investees Unrelated lending External debt Direct investment debt Debt to direct investees Unrelated debt Net external debt Table continued next page Quarter Series ref: IIPQ Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Bank sector S5XDAA2A1 S5XDAA2A11 S5XDAA2A111 S5XDAA2A112 S5XDAA2A12 S5XDAA2A121 S5XDAA2A122 S5XDAA2A13 S5XDAL2A1 S5XDAL2A11 S5XDAL2A111 S5XDAL2A112 S5XDAL2A12 S5XDAL2A121 S5XDAL2A122 S5XDAL2A13 S5XDAA3A1 Other sector S5XDAA2A2 S5XDAA2A21 S5XDAA2A211 S5XDAA2A212 S5XDAA2A22 S5XDAL2A2 S5XDAL2A21 S5XDAL2A211 S5XDAL2A212 S5XDAL2A22 S5XDAA3A2 Monetary authority S5XDAA2A4 S5XDAA2A41 S5XDAA2A411 S5XDAA2A42 S5XDAL2A4 S5XDAL2A41 S5XDAL2A411 S5XDAL2A42 S5XDAA3A4 12

13 Introducing expanded external lending and debt statistics Table 3 continued External lending Direct investment lending Lending to direct investees Unrelated lending External debt Direct investment debt Debt to direct investees Unrelated debt Net external debt Quarter Series ref: IIPQ Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun General government S5XDAA2A3 S5XDAA2A31 S5XDAA2A311 S5XDAA2A32 S5XDAL2A3 S5XDAL2A31 S5XDAL2A311 S5XDAL2A32 S5XDAA3A3 13

14 3 External lending and debt series explained Sectors in the international accounts Sector classifications group together units that have similar economic objectives, functions, and behaviour. The sectoral classification used in the international accounts describes the sector of the New Zealand-resident party that has the international lending or debt. The sectoral classification uses the New Zealand Standard Institutional Sector Classification. The sectors used are: banks includes registered banks and other financial corporations included in the broad monetary aggregate (M3) general government comprises central and local government. The statistics principally reflect the New Zealand Treasury, along with local government, and government insurance and pension schemes that have overseas lending and borrowing monetary authorities (Central Bank) comprises the Reserve Bank of New Zealand other sectors comprises all other sectors. Principally, non-bank corporations including state-owned enterprises and non-bank financial corporations such as insurance companies External lending and debt relationship classification Relationship classifications are a key focus of the ELD series. This classification extends the functional classification applied to the IIP. Direct investment other capital is split into lending and debt positions between New Zealand-resident entities and their non-resident direct investors and direct investees. A new classification is introduced in the ELD for the special role of banks as financial intermediaries. It offers improved opportunities for analysing the risks associated with various funding relationships. The classification, applied only to banks, is related party external lending and debt. This is funding and claims between a bank and its direct investment related partners where the purpose is financial intermediation; borrowing to lend. Related direct investment partners comprise both the banks foreign direct investors, and the banks own subsidiaries and branches located overseas; its direct investees. Direct investment Direct investment is the key classification within the ELD relationship. Borrowing and lending is categorised in terms of whether there is a direct investment relationship 14

15 Introducing expanded external lending and debt statistics between the debtor and creditor. For all sectors except the bank sector, if the investment relationship between the debtor and creditor is not direct, then the debt and lending is classified as 'unrelated'. For the bank sector, the additional classification related is introduced. Related (bank sector only) Banks occupy a special position in BoP, IIP, and ELD statistics because of their role as financial intermediaries. The classification of financial assets and liabilities between a bank and non-resident direct investment parties depends on the purpose of the claims and liabilities. In general, the purpose is either direct investment (ie of a 'permanent' nature as characterised by ownership and control purposes) or intermediation (incurring liabilities in order to create claims). In respect of intermediation, the principle instruments are debt securities, loans, and deposits. In the international accounts, banks do carry some international assets and liabilities such as trade credits that are not of an intermediation nature, but these are not material in the context of bank sector international assets and liabilities Unrelated Setting aside the bank sector, all debt and lending positions between residents and nonresidents that do not have a direct investment relationship are classified as unrelated. Unrelated external lending and borrowing comprises tradable and non-tradable debt instruments classified as portfolio investment, other investment, and reserves in the IIP. For the bank sector, unrelated captures all positions in all debt instrument types which are not under a direct investment or related relationship. 15

16 4 Compiling the statistics Resources The IMF s External debt statistics: Guide for compilers and users (2003) sets out the principles determining debt, equity, and residence. These principles are compatible with the IMF's Balance of Payments Manual, and are used by Statistics NZ in collecting data and compiling the IIP and BoP statistics. The conditions defining the existence of debt, the distinction between debt and equity, and determining the residence of transactors in financial instruments, are the same in each of the three measures: IIP, international financial assets and liabilities, and ELD. Data for all three outputs is collected in the same vehicles, the quarterly and annual international investment surveys. The data sources use BPM5 (Balance of payments manual, fifth edition, 1993) principles in the collection framework. The IMF BPM5 principles carry over to the External Debt Guide, but with some differences. The External Debt Guide emphases nominal value, while the IMF's BoP Manual focuses on market value. The Debt Guide places market value basis as a secondary measurement basis for negotiable instruments. In addition, the Debt Guide recommends an original maturity basis as opposed to the residual maturity basis adopted in the New Zealand BoP framework. Statistics NZ regards its BPM5-based data as compatible with the External Debt Guide framework for the production of external lending and debt statistics. The balance sheet approach used in the ELD series is consistent with that taken in BPM6 to present direct investment data on a gross basis in place of the directional approach. Statistics NZ plans to introduce the BoP and IIP series on a BPM6 (Balance of payments manual, sixth edition, 2010) basis from the June 2014 quarter forward. Legal form Statistics NZ uses legal form to identify counterparties, residency, and the nature of financial instruments. Attribution of financial asset and liabilities depends on the legal form of the arrangements. If the accounts of the New Zealand entity recognise a liability to an offshore subsidiary or branch, then that liability is recognised in the BoP, IIP, and ELD accounts as a liability to a direct investment-related offshore counterparty. The ELD series will record: 1. if the resident entity is a bank, and the funding is not of a direct investment nature: external debt, related debt, direct investee 2. if the resident entity is a non-bank: external debt, direct, direct investee. Where the New Zealand-resident entity issues debt securities abroad purchased by unrelated parties, and its offshore entity has either no role or acts in an agency capacity (does not record a liability or claim), then the entry is the same for both banks and nonbanks: external debt, unrelated debt. 16

17 Appendix Financial derivatives Financial derivatives derive their value from an underlying contract in financial instruments, commodities, or indicators. For example, the proceeds of a USD loan raised by a resident New Zealand entity are exchanged into NZD to finance its New Zealand operations. Where the loan is repayable in USD, foreign exchange risk arises from the likelihood that the quantity of NZD (required to purchase the USD) to settle the loan will exceed the original amount. This will occur if the NZD has depreciated against the USD when the loan is due to be repaid. This exchange rate risk to the borrower can be limited by the use of a financial derivatives (FD) contract. A contract can fix the amount of NZD needed to settle the underlying loan contract in USD. The value of the FD contract is then determined by reference to the current USD:NZD exchange rate and the terms of the FD contract. The FD contract can be traded separately from the underlying USD loan. The surveys collecting data about New Zealand's international financial transactions and positions measure financial positions and transactions according to the terms of original contracts, regardless of any FD / hedging contract. The marked-to-market value of FD contracts is requested separately in the international investment surveys. Financial derivative asset and liability positions are classified in the IIP and international asset and liability series as separate items, but excluded from the external lending and debt series. Debt instruments versus equity Equity shares represent a claim on the residual value of an entity; the amount of owner s funds left after the claims of all creditors (lenders) have been met. Conversely, debt instruments involve the obligation of the borrower (debtor) to repay to the creditor a predetermined amount of principal and or interest. Returns on debt, usually interest, is payable by the debtor to the creditor according to a predetermined formula (eg an annual rate of interest). Conversely, returns to holders of equity securities, usually dividends, are dependent on the performance of the entity that issued the shares. Hybrid instruments are financial instruments that have both debt and equity characteristics (for example, preference shares, which are often classed as equity in company accounts). In the international accounts, such instruments are treated as debt securities if they: do not have the same voting rights as ordinary shares do not have a claim on the residual value of the issuing entity, there is an obligation to repay according to a predetermined formula pay a fixed income, but which may have provision for interest rate resets under specified criteria. Residents and non-residents of an economy An economy comprises all the institutional units that are resident in a particular economic territory. An economic territory is usually considered to be the area under the effective control of a single government. Institutional units are households (persons or groups of 17

18 Introducing expanded external lending and debt statistics persons) and entities that are recognised as separate from the people or entities that created them. This includes corporations, non-profit, and government entities. Individuals are resident in an economy if they usually reside in that economy. An actual or intended presence of 12 months or more is the normal criteria for establishing residence of individuals. In borderline cases, factors such as evidence of a centre of interest in the economy (eg principal dwelling), citizenship, and tax status are used to determine residence. Entities are resident in an economy if they engage in the production of goods and or services from a location in that economy. Evidence of a presence in an economy includes having a physical presence in the economy (eg factory, office), and being subject to the tax and other laws of that economy. Resident entities include New Zealand-located companies that are partly or wholly owned by overseas located (non-resident) companies. For example, a New Zealand-located business that is 100 percent owned by an Australian-located company is a New Zealandresident company. New Zealand-located branches of foreign companies are residents of New Zealand, even though branches are not legally separate from their head office. Therefore, financial transactions and positions between New Zealand-resident entities and non-resident direct investor parents and branch head offices, and the offshore subsidiaries and branches of resident New Zealand investors, are included in the international financial accounts. 18

19 References and further reading References International Monetary Fund (1993). Balance of payments manual, fifth edition (BPM5). Available from International Monetary Fund (2003). External debt statistics: Guide for compilers and users. Available from International Monetary Fund (2010). Balance of payments manual, sixth edition (BPM6), Available from Further reading Statistics NZ (2004). Balance of payments Sources and methods. Available from Statistics NZ (nd). Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Information releases. Available from 19