Jane's Defence Weekly. Making the break

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1 Jane's Defence Weekly Making the break [Content preview Subscribe to IHS Jane s Defence Weekly for full article] The Scottish government's long-awaited White Paper on independence has brought more detail to its defence and security plans, but as the 2014 referendum approaches, significant questions remain unanswered. Matthew Bell reports The future of the UK's armed forces beyond September 2014 is shrouded in uncertainty and a kind of fear, not because of war or civil conflict - or even the nation's dire finances - but because of a momentous decision that could send shockwaves through the country for decades to come. If the Scottish vote to become independent their new country will quickly need to plot its own course in defence and security, while the remainder of the United Kingdom will be forced to reshape its military with potentially far fewer soldiers and much less equipment. The Scottish National Party's (SNP's) White Paper, published in November 2013, revealed a lot more about what an independent Scottish force would look like, but has been criticised for unrealistic expectations and an absence of crucial detail. Defence co-operation with the rest of the UK has been assumed and would be essential, but its nature and extent will depend on a myriad of interdependent factors, most of all the talks on splitting debts and assets that would start after separation. At issue is the future of the UK's security: its soldiers, a nuclear deterrent and a Scottish defence industry that supports thousands of jobs and brings in billions of pounds each year. The stakes could hardly be higher. Force vision The SNP has now settled on an annual defence budget of GBP2.5 billion (USD6.25 billion) and therefore a defined scope for what it could afford, meaning that its White Paper raises two central questions. Firstly, are the SNP's force expectations realistic, or are there political motivations behind detailing its desired military structure, for example, to provide leverage in negotiations with Westminster? Secondly, if the plans are credible and Scotland actually gets the force the SNP desires, could it carry out the tasks required: defending Scotland and taking part in foreign peacekeeping? Page 1 of 10

2 A Scottish defence force, as envisioned by the SNP, would ensure the security of its borders and its waters but also take part in chosen international missions as a card-carrying member of the United Nations and the EU. The SNP's White Paper sets out a desired military force comprising 15,000 regular personnel and 5,000 reserve personnel in a staged development over 10 years following independence. It also details major platforms the SNP would seek to inherit from the UK. Most significantly, these include 12 Typhoon fighter aircraft (eventually rising to a possible 16), six Hercules C-130J transport aircraft, two frigates, four mine countermeasures vessels and two ocean patrol vessels, as well as several infantry and marine units to be claimed from the UK's existing force (see graphic/break-out box). Page 2 of 10

3 0ne of the UK Royal Air Force's Typhoon unit's - 6 Squadron - is based at RAF Leuchars in Scotland. The SNP would seek to inherit 12 Typhoon fighters from the UK if Scotland becomes independent. (Eurofighter) The SNP has made much of comparing a Scottish defence force to those of its Scandinavian neighbours. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) compares the SNP's proposed budget to that of Denmark (GBP2.8 billion), Finland (GBP2.3 billion) and Norway (GBP4.4 billion), as well as Croatia (GBP0.6 billion), Ireland (GBP0.7 billion), and Slovakia (GBP0.6 billion). However, it adds that, aside from Slovakia and Croatia, "none of these nations has had to contend with the costs of becoming a newly separated state, including start-up costs". Lord West, former first sea lord and security adviser to Gordon Brown during his premiership, is in little doubt about the cogency of the SNP's plans. "I think there are an awful lot of gaps there and I also think they're deluding their own people because they won't be able to have the sort of forces they're talking about," he told IHS Jane's. "I think they'll be much more like Ireland, which is down to about the GBP1 billion level of spending," he added. "The Irish forces have less troops available to deploy, and they've got no complex warships at all, just some fishing protection-type ships." Gemma Doyle, a Scottish MP and defence spokesperson for the pro-union Better Together campaign, told IHS Jane's that the SNP's plans lack detail and proper costings for the force it hopes to put together. Co-operation with the UK On one point the SNP remains adamantly clear: it would keep the Queen as Scotland's head of state and as commander in chief of its armed forces. Keith Brown, Scotland's veterans minister, told IHS Jane's : "Her Majesty and Her successors to the Crown would continue to enjoy the status and rights which attached to the Crown in Scotland immediately before Independence Day." Whether any objections are raised to this insistence remains to be seen. The White Paper assumes varying degrees of co-operation with the remaining UK in several other areas following separation, in everything from banking to defence and security. In part, the level of co-operation will depend on how good-natured separation has been, but mainly on what the Westminster government agrees to during negotiations on assets and ongoing support. Page 3 of 10

4 Brown told IHS Jane's that an independent Scottish government would establish "core government capacity for defence functions, such as strategic planning, oversight and policy functions for defence and security" straight after separation. Even so, he added that, "given the importance of ongoing shared security interests between Scotland and the rest of the UK, we will ensure a partnership approach during the period of transition to independence". This need for continued collaboration opens up new areas of potential difficulty for a separate Scotland, not least on the true level of defence independence a separate Scotland could ever achieve. Doyle said that if Scotland wanted continued collaboration with the UK "they should stay with the UK rather than set up a new country, because when you do that you can't guarantee that they would want to continue to collaborate". "It would be more important for Scotland to collaborate with the rest of the UK than for the UK to collaborate with Scotland; that would put Scotland on the back foot," she said. "The bottom line is we just don't know what would happen." Chalmers said that the more the case for independence is analysed, "the less substantial it becomes and the more it relies on some kind of dependence with the UK". The more complicated a force operated by Scotland, for example, the more it would be reliant on the UK. Chalmers added that pilot training for the Typhoon aircraft Scotland wants to operate would be carried out by the Royal Air Force (RAF), at least initially, while the SNP appears to assume that the current private-sector support that already exists for the aircraft from the likes of BAE Systems would remain in some shape after independence. Set-up costs for new Scottish defence bodies could also be huge (see box), and appear to have been little considered by the SNP, aside from plans to use Faslane as its naval base and an admission that the build-up of manpower may need to be gradual. Lord West said Scotland would have "a major training problem", in addition to having to set up its own procurement and logistics operations. Sharing troops The SNP also bases its plans on an assumed inheritance of army units mainly recruited in Scotland, with Brown believing that current personnel affected by separation "should be given a choice on the armed forces in which they wish to serve". "Just as individuals from many different nationalities serve in UK armed forces, so, too, would this Scottish government welcome current UK service personnel into the future defence forces of an independent Scotland," he added. Page 4 of 10

5 However, the MoD said in November that "an independent Scottish state could not simply co-opt existing units that are primarily recruited in Scotland, or based in Scotland". "Similarly, individual members of the UK armed forces, in whatever units they serve, could not simply be moved into the forces of a separate Scottish state," it said, although the option of transferring between the two forces "would be a matter for negotiation". Dependent on the outcome of talks, the UK would seem likely to accept Scottish troops into its ranks, just as it does soldiers from Ireland and other countries. NATO membership The SNP is determined that a separate Scotland would be, or would become, a member of NATO, despite the party's insistence that the UK should move its nuclear weapons from their current Scottish base at Faslane. This anti-nuclear stance runs against NATO's doctrine, causing serious doubt over Scotland's potential NATO membership if independent, which in turn has led the SNP to gradually soften its stance over recent months. It has now settled on a 'Don't ask, don't tell' policy, which means nuclear-armed vessels from NATO countries would be able to use its ports on a confidential basis. Brown said Scotland "would take our place as one of the many non-nuclear members of NATO" after separation, but Doyle countered that the SNP "can't have it both ways". "You can't on the one hand ask for a guarantee [against nuclear weapons] and have a 'Don't ask, don't tell' policy," she said. "That's not the basis on which NATO operates." Trident basing The re-basing of the UK's Trident nuclear ballistic missiles has become one of the most contentious elements of the independence debate, stubbornly argued by both sides as the SNP sticks to its antinuclear stance and the MoD puzzles over what it would do with its nuclear deterrent if forced to move it. In July Prime Minister David Cameron strongly denied a radical idea said to have been considered by the MoD: designating the Faslane base as sovereign UK territory, giving it the same legal status as British bases in countries like Cyprus. The mere possibility brings home the huge significance of Scottish independence to the UK's defence. Even if an alternative base were decided upon, moving Trident could take up to a decade and would cost billions of pounds, according to Defence Secretary Philip Hammond. The SNP has stuck firmly to non-specific language on the topic; Brown told IHS Jane's the party would seek "the speediest safe removal" of Trident from Faslane. Scottish Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has suggested the UK's nuclear weapons may need to be removed two years after independence, although Brown added that the SNP would aim for Page 5 of 10

6 removal of Trident "within the first term of the Scottish Parliament following independence", which would last four years following the 2016 poll. Nuclear submarine HMS Vanguard arrives back at HM Naval Base Clyde, Faslane, Scotland, following a patrol. The rebasing of Trident is a contentious element of the independence debate. (Crown Copyright) According to Chalmers, "it's not possible to relocate the nuclear weapon facilities from Scotland to England or Wales in anything but the very long term", partly because the UK "would not accept being denuclearised by Scottish independence". Negotiations The MoD admitted in November that a pro-independence vote in the referendum "would mark the beginning of a lengthy and complex set of negotiations between the Scottish and UK governments on the terms of independence. Page 6 of 10

7 "Negotiations would have to take place on a whole range of matters across government, including on assets and liabilities," it said, including the separation of armed forces, basing and potential cooperation. However, despite the potential import of a vote favouring independence, the MoD says it is not drawing up contingency plans on how to deal with separation because it has no mandate to do so; it must simply continue to represent the interests of the UK as a whole. In this wider context, the White Paper can be seen as "an initial negotiating position", said Chalmers. "One of the debates would be, if they had a yes vote, possibly questioning whether they would really want to retain these pretty high-technology assets or go back to the drawing board and buy equipment more suitable to Scotland's forces," he added. Jobs and industry The future of Scotland's defence industry is one crucial factor where both sides have limited influence. The MoD estimates that Scotland's defence sector employs 12,600 people and accounts for sales of over GBP18 billion per year (see box). Its industrial footprint ranges from the design, manufacture, assembly and maintenance of complex warships to the latest high-technology innovations in aerospace engineering, defence electronics and electro-optic systems. Page 7 of 10

8 While the SNP has proposed building new Type 26 frigates on the Clyde for Scotland and the rest of the UK, the idea was not met favourably by Westminster. (BAE Systems) Defence firms in Scotland currently enjoy priority in UK procurement competitions due to an EU exclusion relating to domestic defence procurement, but the MoD says companies based in an independent Scottish state "would no longer be eligible for contracts that the UK chose to place or compete domestically for national security reasons under an exemption from EU law". "Where they could continue to compete, they would be bidding in a competitive international market dominated by major economic powers," it added. "They would therefore see lower domestic demand for defence goods and would lose the support to exports provided in key markets around the world through the UK's considerable levels of international defence engagement." Scottish industries stand to lose out on huge amounts of business if the UK government is right. The MoD spent over GBP20 billion with UK industry in 2011/12 and in the 10 years from 2012/13 expects to spend almost GBP160 billion on new equipment and data systems and their support. A recent decision by BAE Systems to restructure its shipbuilding business may hold some sway over the outcome of the referendum. In November the company cut 1,775 jobs in Scotland and the rest of the UK, but decided to centre its main shipbuilding on the Clyde in Scotland, meaning it will end 500 years of British shipbuilding in Portsmouth. Conclusion The SNP's White Paper has brought much more detail to its defence plans although significant doubts remain on what independence would really mean for jobs and industry, especially if the UK maintained its current stance. Gaps also remain in crucial costings and the viability of running major platforms, while the extent of co-operation with the remaining UK after separation would perhaps be the most important factor for both countries. The SNP may yet have achieved its main purpose in outlining its planned inheritance, drawing lines in the sand that might be moved in wider negotiations. However, for all the talk from both sides, there is only one statement that really counts: the vote of the Scottish people in September THE SCOTTISH DEFENCE FORCE - AS ENVISAGED BY THE NOVEMBER 2013 WHITE PAPERAt the point of independence: Maritime forces One naval squadron to secure Scotland's maritime interests and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and Page 8 of 10

9 contribute to joint capability with partners in Scotland's geographical neighbourhood, consisting of: - two frigates from the Royal Navy's current fleet; - a command platform for naval operations and development of specialist marine capabilities (from the Royal Navy's current fleet, following adaptation); - four mine countermeasures vessels from the Royal Navy's current fleet; - two offshore patrol vessels (OPVs) to provide security for the 200 nautical mile EEZ. However, as the Royal Navy currently only has four OPVs, a longer lead time for procurement might be necessary; - four to six patrol boats from the Royal Navy's current fleet, capable of operating in coastal waters, providing fleet protection and also contributing to securing borders; - auxiliary support ships (providing support to vessels on operations), which could be secured on a shared basis initially with the rest of the UK. These arrangements will require around 2,000 regular and at least 200 reserve personnel. Land forces An army HQ function and an all-arms brigade, with three infantry/marine units, equipped initially from a negotiated share of current UK assets and supported by: - a deployable brigade HQ; - two light armoured reconnaissance units; - two light artillery units; - one engineer unit deploying a range of equipment for bridging, mine clearance and engineering functions; - one aviation unit operating six helicopters for reconnaissance and liaison; - two communication units; - one transport unit; - one logistics unit; - one medical unit. Special forces and explosive ordnance disposal teams will bring the total to around 3,500 regular and at least 1,200 reserve personnel. Air forces Key elements of air forces in place at independence, equipped initially from a negotiated share of current UK assets, will secure core tasks, principally the ability to police Scotland's airspace, within NATO. - an air force HQ function (with staff embedded within NATO structures); - Scotland will remain part of NATO's integrated Air Command and Control (AC2) system, initially through agreement with allies to maintain the current arrangements while Scotland establishes and develops its own AC2 personnel and facility within Scotland within five years of independence; - a quick reaction alert (QRA) squadron incorporating a minimum of 12 Typhoon jets based at Lossiemouth; - a tactical air transport squadron, including around six Hercules C-130J aircraft and a helicopter squadron; - flight training through joint arrangements with allies. In total this would require around 2,000 regular personnel and around 300 reserve personnel. Five years after independence: Maritime forces A second naval squadron to contribute to NATO and other operations outside home waters, incorporating the naval command platform, plus: - a further two frigates with tanker and support ship capacity; - maritime forces to comprise 2,400 regular and at least 270 reserve personnel. Land forces Page 9 of 10

10 MINISTRY OF DEFENCE PRIME CONTRACTORS WITH SITES IN SCOTLANDBabcock directly employs nearly 4,800 people in Scotland, including over 3,100 in its Marine and Technology Division's work at Clyde and Rosyth. BAE Systems employs around 3,600 staff in Scotland, including 3,000 on naval ship work mainly at Scotstoun and Govan but also at Rosyth supporting the assembly of the Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers, as well as employing staff at Hillend and at its regional aircraft division at Prestwick. Rolls-Royce employs over 2,100 people in Scotland in East Kilbride, Inchinnan, Thurso and Dunfermline. Selex ES directly employs over 1,900 people at its Edinburgh site hosting hi-tech capabilities for defence and security system applications based on airborne radar, advanced laser and electro-optic systems. Copyright IHS Global Limited, 2014 For the full version and more content: IHS Jane's Military and Security Assessments Intelligence Centre IHS Jane's Military and Security Assessments Intelligence Centre delivers the world's most comprehensive and reliable coverage, expert analysis and detailed reference material concerning defence, geopolitics and state stability. Subscribe to Jane s Military and Security Intelligence Centre for access to the latest news, analysis and data For advertising solutions contact the IHS Jane s Advertising team Page 10 of 10