Future of Insurance 2020

Transcription

1 Future of Insurance 2020 Dr. Anand S. Rao Partner, US FS Advisory September, 2012

2 Agenda 01. STEEP Drivers 02. Implications for Insurance 03. Preparing for the Future 1

3 The future isn t what it used to be The environment in which executives have spent most, if not all, of their careers is changing 2

4 STEEP Drivers 3

5 32 STEEP Drivers Social Customer Behaviors Demographic Shifts Social Networking Changing Middle Class Customer Expectations New Family Structure Risk Awareness Dependency Ratio Health Aging Talent Drain Stakeholder Trust Corporate Social Responsibility Economic Urbanization New Growth Opportunities Fiscal Pressure Inflation/Deflation Risk Sharing & Transfer Social Security & Benefits Distributor Shift Partnerships Technology Information & Analytics Devices & Sensors Software & Applications Medical Advances Environmental Climate Change & Catastrophes Sustainability Pollution Political Regulatory Reform Geo-political Risk Rise of State-Directed Capitalism Terrorism Tax Treatment Sharia Compliance (Takaful) 4

6 Future Scenarios by Sector 5

7 Global Mega-Trends in Insurance 6

8 1 Two-Speed Global Growth 1 Two-Speed Global Growth Distribution Information Disruption 2 Advantage and 3 through Customer Big Data Revolution Evolving Business Models Big and Fast 4 Changing Global demographics Rising middle class in developing countries; shrinking middle class in developed countries Developed economies: Shrinking life insurance & auto insurance Growth in Retirement Income Developing economies: Huge potential for personal and commercial Growth in life insurance, disability, retirement savings 7

9 1 Two-Speed Global Growth Increasing Share of Developing Countries Comparative Forecast Highlights Two-Speed Growth Across the Globe Economic and unemployment impact Shrinking middle class Fight for market share Margin extension Spain France UK Germany GDP Growth Forecast (2011) % 0,5 1,4 1,9 2,3 US 3 Large working population Rising middle class Top-line growth Turkey Brazil India 4,4 4,7 8,5 Market expansion China 9,6 Sources: OECD projections. Apply long-term growth projections to historical PPP-based estimates for 29 O.E.C.D member countries and 129 non-member economies.

10 2 Distribution Disruption & Customer Revolution 1 Two-Speed Global Growth Distribution Information Disruption 2 Advantage and 3 through Customer Big Data Revolution Evolving Business Models Big and Fast 4 P& C Insurance: Growing direct channel and aggregators Self-forming affinity groups Customer transparency, ease of use and speed of fulfillment Life Insurance & Retirement: Simplicity, advice, and transparency Holistic income solutions - Insurers, Asset managers, Banks 9

11 2 Distributor Destruction and Customer Revolution From Product-centric to Customer-Centric Models 10

12 2 Distributor Destruction and Customer Revolution Changing Role of Advice Delegated Assisted Self-Directed 11

13 1 Distributor Destruction and Customer Revolution Holistic Income Solutions Life & Retirement The Customer Life-Cycle Managing Wealth, Health and Standard-of-Living Customer Life-Cycle Stages Asset Cycle Dependents Single & Rich Growing Family Pre-Retiree Retiree 1 New Generation Advice Asset Depletion Asset Depletion Asset Creation Asset Creation Product Portfolio Mix Insur ance 5% Savin gs 20% Debt 75% Asset Protection Insur ance 20% Savin gs 30% Debt 50% Asset Preservation Insur ance 20% Savin gs 60% Debt 20% Insur ance 40% Asset Transfer Savin gs 30% Debt 30%

14 3 Information Advantage through Big Data and Smart Analytics 1 Two-Speed Global Growth Distribution Information Disruption 2 Advantage and 3 through Customer Big Data Revolution Evolving Business Models Big and Fast Sophisticated unstructured data capture for real-time insights More sophisticated predictive modeling and interpretive intelligence Advanced use of mobile and sensor devices Automation of advice (i.e., TurboTax of investment advice) 4 13

15 3 Information Advantage through Big Data Big Data, Smart Analytics and Sensor Devices Analytic Techniques and Data Sources Increasing Sophistication Computational Power Types of Data 80 s-90 s Multivariate Analysis 90 s-00 s Data driven predictive modeling 00 s-10 s Interpretation, Simulation & Visualization Social Media Unstructured Data and Insights Sensors Video Audio Structured Data and Solutions Database Websites Source: Property & Casualty Predictive Modeling Survey Results and Implications." Towers Perin Predictive Modeling, Analysis 14

16 3 Information advantage through Big Data Real-time data from sensors - Reactive to proactive model Vehicle Telematics Crop Insurance to Yield Management 15

17 3 Information advantage through Big Data Advances in medical technology, devices and preventative care Body Area Networks & Embedded Devices Pricing Granularity Product Design Simplicity 16

18 4 Evolving Business Models Big and Fast 1 Two-Speed Global Growth Distribution Information Disruption 2 Advantage and 3 through Customer Big Data Revolution Reactive to preventative models Product-centric to customer-centric business models Automate and Informate models Balancing economies of scale, local flexibility and innovation Evolving Business Models Big and Fast 4 17

19 4 Evolving Business Models Big and Fast Third Wave of Capitalism Scale 2 nd Wave 3 rd Wave Competitors 1 st Wave Speed 18

20 4 Evolving Business Models Big and Fast Structural and Disruptive Innovation Operational Innovation Structural Innovation Operational Innovation Best Practice Product/Service Innovation - Product/Service Innovation

21 4 Evolving Business Models Big and Fast Disruptive Innovation Short-term Scenario V2V Communications SARTRE Vehicle Platooning Self-Parking Cars increased safety increased capacity convenience

22 4 Evolving Business Models Big and Fast Disruptive Innovation End-game Scenario Driverless Cars Implications Liability: Driver to Product Distribution: Consumers to Manufacturers Ownership: Owning to sharing/renting Death Spiral: Lower claims, lower premiums and eventually the death of the auto insurance industry

23 The Future may be hard to predict but not impossible to prepare for!! 22

24 Call to action 23

25 Summary Outside-in not Inside- Out Automate & Informate Sense & Predict Preventative model Big & Fast 24

26 For Additional Information Contact: Anand Rao Confidential Information for the sole benefit and use of 's Client PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. PricewaterhouseCoopers refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network, each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.