1 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT APRIL 2015 Statistics Botswana. Table of contents Introduction Gross Domestic Product...3

Transcription

1

2 Table of contents Introduction Gross Domestic Product Revisions in this release Fourth quarter GDP Annual National Accounts Annual Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Expenditure Compensation of Employees by Economic Activity GDP by Income approach Gross National Income (GNI) Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) Gross Savings Capital Stock by type of assets...9 Figure 1: Real GDP growth rates (over four quarters)...4 Figure 2: Components of Gross Domestic Expenditure at 2006 prices...4 Figure 3: Annual percentage change in real GDP...6 Figure 4: Components of Gross Domestic Expenditure at constant 2006 prices...6 Figure 5: Relations between Value Added, Compensation of employees and Operating Surplus...8 Figure 6: Relations between GNI, GNDI and Savings GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT APRIL 2015 Statistics Botswana

3 1. Introduction This statistical release contains preliminary Gross Domestic Product estimates at current and constant prices for the fourth quarter of 2014, as well as 2014 annual preliminary estimates. The 2014 estimates are basically a summation of the four quarters based on limited data and as such are subject to change. Botswana s national accounts are compiled according to the 1993 System of National Accounts (1993 SNA). The accounts presented in this brief adhere to the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which sets out standards on coverage, periodicity and timeliness of data. This publication contains other national accounts aggregates which were last published in These are compensation of employees by economic activity, Gross Domestic Product by type of income, Gross National Income, Gross National Disposable Income, Gross Savings, Gross Capital Formation by type of assets and Capital Stock by type of assets. The estimates are provisional and subject to change. First estimates are normally based on limited data and hence cannot be precise and absolute. The figures are revised after receiving finalized or audited data from companies in which some differences and inconsistencies in the previously published data may be observed. These estimates are not seasonally adjusted hence the variations may differ depending on the quarters. Statistics Botswana acknowledges and appreciates contribution of all stakeholders in the production of this quarterly report. For more information and further enquiries, contact the Directorate of Stakeholder Relations at All Statistics Botswana outputs/publications are available on the website at and at the Statistics Botswana Library (Head-Office, Gaborone). Anna N. Majelantle Statistician General April GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT APRIL 2015 Statistics Botswana

4 2. Gross Domestic Product 2.1 Revisions in this release Revisions have been made to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates published in December The changes were due to the updated source data and have affected all the industries from the year 2010 onwards with the exception of diamond mining which was revised from The diamond output was substantially revised downwards by 22.7 percent in 2010 due to a downward revision of the inventories figures. The release contains annual and quarterly estimates. The new developments in the accounts were the inclusion of the new mines in the GDP estimates. These are Lucara (Karowe) diamond mine, Boseto (Discovery Metals Limited) and Misssana copper mines. Lucara and Boseto were included from 2013 while Missana was included from In 2013, Diamond mining contributed 78.2 percent to total mining sector compared to 75 percent in Key figures Real Gross Domestic Product Total Final Consumption Gross Fixed Capital Formation Real Gross Domestic Product Percentage Change Total Final Consumption Year-on Year Gross Fixed Capital Formation Quarter-on Quarter Real Gross Domestic Product Year-on Year Total Final Gross Fixed Consumption Capital Formation Quarter-on Quarter Year-on Year First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Fourth quarter GDP The estimated GDP at current prices for the fourth quarter of 2014 was P million compared to a revised level of P million registered in the third quarter of The estimated GDP at constant 2006 prices for the fourth quarter of 2014 was P million compared to P million registered in the third quarter of 2014, amounting to an increase of 3.3 percent (see table 3). Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to 6.9 percent accrued in the same quarter in At industry level, most of the increase was attributed to General Government, Trade, Hotels & Restaurants and Transport & communications sectors which increased by 8.1, 7.8 and 7.0 percent respectively. All other industries recorded a positive growth of at least 1.5 percent over the period with the exception of Water and Electricity which recorded a decrease of percent. Mining increased by 2.5 percent compared to 20.5 percent realized in the fourth quarter of The slow growth rate was attributed to a decline in diamond production by 5.7 percent compared to 16.9 percent registered in Copper/Nickel production increased by 7.6 percent compared to a significant increase of 39.5 percent in the same quarter last year. The increase in the real value added of the General Government was mainly due to the increase in central government by 8.9 percent. Trade, Hotels & Restaurants growth was attributed to the increase in real value added of Petrol stations and Retail Trade by 9.3 percent and 7.1 percent respectively. The increase in the real value added of Transport and Communications was mainly due to the increase in Post and Communications by 6.1 percent. 3 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT APRIL 2015 Statistics Botswana

5 There was a significant decrease in the value added by the Water and Electricity sector of percent realized in the fourth quarter of the year under review. The decline is largely by the Electricity sector which has been contributing negatively to the economy since the first quarter of 2012 due to a substantial increase in intermediate consumption. Local production of Electricity decreased by 20.1 percent while imports increased by 49.0 percent. Imported Electricity is included in the intermediate consumption. Figure 1: Real GDP growth rates (over four quarters) Total final consumption expenditure recorded an increase of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, whereas in the same quarter of the previous year it increased by1.7 percent. However, household final consumption increased by 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 while Government final consumption rose by 2.3 percent in the same quarter. Fixed capital formation recorded an increase of 16.2 percent in the quarter under review compared to a decrease of 7.3 percent in the same period in Real exports of goods and services went up by 25.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to an increase of 30.7 percent recorded in the same quarter of 2013, while imports of goods and services registered an increase of 8.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to a 4.5 percent increase registered in the same quarter of Figure 2: Components of Gross Domestic Expenditure at 2006 prices 4 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT APRIL 2015 Statistics Botswana

6 4. Annual National Accounts 4.1 Annual Gross Domestic Product Key figures at constant 2006 prices Total final consumption Gross fixed capital formation Exports Imports Gross domestic product GDP per Capita GDP at current prices increased to P141, million in 2014 compared to a revised level of P125, million in 2013, recording an increase of 12.8 percent. Real GDP increased by 4.4 percent in 2014 compared to a revised growth rate of 9.3 percent in The increase in real GDP was mainly due to Transport & Communications, Trade, Hotels & Restaurants and Mining which recorded an increase in value added of 7.4, 7.1 and 4.5 percent respectively. The slow growth rate of the Mining sector is attributed to 6.6 percent increase in diamond production compared to a high increase of 12.2 percent in the previous year. Contribution to GDP by industry is shown in table 2. Mining remains a major contributor to GDP, its contribution went up to 22.9 percent in 2014 compared to 21.9 percent recorded in In the third quarter of 2014, there was a strong performance at Jwaneng mine, where higher grade carats were produced. Mining contribution was also improved by the inclusion of other mines in the accounts namely Lucara diamond mine, Boseto copper mine and Missana copper mine. Table A 1: Annual percentage change in Real GDP by Economic Activity Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Water & Electricity Construction Trade, Hotels & Restaurants Transport and Communication Business Service General Government Social and personal Services Total Value Added Taxes Less Subsidies Total GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT APRIL 2015 Statistics Botswana

7 Figure 3: Annual percentage change in real GDP 4.2 Gross Domestic Expenditure Real gross domestic expenditure increased by 6.8 percent in 2014 compared to a increase of 1.6 percent in Real exports increased by 0.6 percent in 2014, compared to an increase of 16.0 percent in 2013, while real imports in 2014 declined by 5.8 percent as opposed to an increase of 6.5 percent in Table A 2: Annual percentage change in Real Domestic Expenditure Total final consumption expenditure Household final consumption expenditure Final consumption of NPISH Government final consumption expenditure Gross Capital formation expenditure Gross Domestic expenditure Figure 4: Components of Gross Domestic Expenditure at constant 2006 prices 6 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT APRIL 2015 Statistics Botswana

8 Table A 3: GDP per capita Year Nominal GDP per capita Real GDP per capita , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Compensation of Employees by Economic Activity Compensation of employees is the total remuneration payable by an enterprise to the employees for work done during the accounting period. There are three main components of compensation of employees; being wages and salaries in cash, wages and salaries in kind, and employer s social contributions (consists of social contributions payable by the employer for the benefit of their employees) Compensation of employees increased by 5.2 percent from P26, million in 2013 to P27, million in All the industries recorded positive growths except for Water & Electricity and General government which recorded a decrease of 0.01percent and 0.6 percent respectively. 4.4 GDP by Income approach GDP by income approach is the sum of primary incomes distributed by resident producer units. This is calculated as the sum of compensation of employees by economic activity plus taxes on production plus consumption of fixed capital and operating surplus which is calculated as a residual. Operating surplus increased by 14.1 percent in Figure 5: Relations between Value Added, Compensation of employees and Operating Surplus 7 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT APRIL 2015 Statistics Botswana

9 4.5 Gross National Income (GNI) Gross domestic product is an aggregate measure of production; it refers to production of all resident units within the borders of a country, which is not exactly the same as the production of all productive activities of residents. Some of the productive activities of residents may take place abroad. The contribution of labour is accounted for through the compensation of employees paid to non-residents and received by the economy. In addition, some primary income generated within the country may go to non-residents. GNI is derived as Gross Domestic Product plus net primary incomes from abroad (net compensation of employees from abroad plus net property income from abroad). Net compensation of employees is income earned by Botswana residents abroad minus income earned by non residents in Botswana. Net property income is Botswana Investment abroad minus foreign investment in Botswana. Gross National Income increased by 10.7 percent in 2013 while Gross Domestic Product increased by 11.6 percent the same year. In 2013 GNI was estimated at P124, million while GDP was P125, million. 4.6 Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) Gross National Disposable Income measures income available to the total economy for final consumption and gross saving. GNDI is derived as Gross National Income plus inflow of current transfers minus outflows of current transfers. Current transfers inflows include SACU receipts. GNDI increased by 10.0 percent to an amount of P138, million in Gross Savings Gross Saving represents excess of current income over current expenditure. It is derived as Gross National Disposable Income minus final consumption expenditure which comprises of government consumption expenditure, household consumption expenditure and Non Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH). In 2013 gross saving of the nation increased by 8.1 percent from P45, million in 2012 to P49, million. Figure 6: Relations between GNI, GNDI and Savings 8 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT APRIL 2015 Statistics Botswana

10 4.8 Capital Stock It is generally accepted that the level of gross fixed capital formation, and hence the growth in fixed capital stock, has a material influence on an economy s labour productivity, business competitiveness and ultimately the rate of increase in the standard of living. Estimates of capital formation and the stock of physical capital are therefore key indicators for assessing macro-economic performance. An estimate of the capital stock refers to a value that is attached to the total physical capital in existence at a specific point in time in an economy. In addition, the estimates of the value of capital stock reflect the actual physical capacity available for repeated use in the production of other goods and services. In practice, it is usually calculated as gross or net capital stock in real terms and the perpetual inventory method (PIM) is one of the methods frequently used to produce estimates of the stock of tangible reproducible assets. According to the guidelines of the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA), the capital account records the values of non-financial assets and distinguishes between the following five classifications: - Gross fixed capital formation; - Consumption of fixed capital; - Changes in inventories; - Acquisitions less disposals of valuables; and - Acquisitions less disposals of non-produced, non-financial assets (e.g. mineral deposits). Gross fixed capital formation, comprises the value of acquisitions less disposals of new or existing fixed assets. Fixed assets consist of tangible and intangible sets produced as outputs from production processes and used repeatedly or continuously in other production processes over a period of more than one year. Capital stock recorded an increase of 7.0 percent compared to 9.0 percent realized in GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT APRIL 2015 Statistics Botswana

11 Table 1: Value Added by Kind of Economic Activity at Current Prices (P million) Calendar year Mining Agriculture Manufacturing Water & Electricity Construction Trade, Hotels &Restaurants Transport & Communication Finance & Business Service General Government Socila & Personal Services Value Added Taxes on Import Other Taxes on products Subsdies Total GDP , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,253.2 Q , , , , , ,073.4 Q , , , , , ,476.7 Q , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,342.9 Q , , , , , ,126.6 Q , , , , , ,187.9 Q , , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,001.8 Q , , , , , ,209.8 Q , , , , , ,216.0 Q , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,733.6 Q , , , , , , , ,774.3 Q , , , , , , , ,514.2 Q , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , ,484.8 Q , , , , , , , ,286.9 Q , , , , , , , , , ,148.8 Q , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , ,595.9 Q , , , , , , , , , , ,731.5 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,472.0 Q , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,617.6 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,914.4 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,107.0 Q , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , ,480.0 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,640.8 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,181.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,947.3 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,531.9 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,985.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,783.5 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,852.1 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,027.1 Q , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,435.4 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,650.3 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,978.4 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,878.2 Note: estimates are provisional 10 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT APRIL 2015 Statistics Botswana

12 Table 2: Contribution of Gross Value Added to GDP by Kind of Economic Activity at Current Prices Calendar year Mining Agriculture Manufacturing Water & Electricity Construction Trade, Hotels &Restaurants Transport & Communication Finance & Business Service General Government Socila & Personal Services Value Added Taxes on Import Other Taxes on products Subsdies Total GDP Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT APRIL 2015 Statistics Botswana

13 Table 3: Value Added by Kind of Economic Activity at Constant 2006 Prices (P million) Calendar year Mining Agriculture Manufacturing Water & Electricity Construction Trade, Hotels &Restaurants Transport & Communication Finance & Business Service General Government Socila & Personal Services Value Added Taxes on Import Other Taxes on products Subsdies Total GDP , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,174.0 Q , , , , , ,353.3 Q , , , , , ,726.4 Q , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,839.3 Q , , , , , ,019.8 Q , , , , , ,185.0 Q , , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,405.2 Q , , , , , ,372.3 Q , , , , , ,353.4 Q , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,336.8 Q , , , , , , , ,087.7 Q , , , , , , ,317.6 Q , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , ,398.0 Q , , , , , , , ,065.3 Q , , , , , , ,607.5 Q , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , ,844.2 Q , , , , , , , , ,812.4 Q , , , , , , , , , ,783.5 Q , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , ,504.1 Q , , , , , , , , ,642.0 Q , , , , , , , , , ,598.3 Q , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , ,489.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , ,986.1 Q , , , , , , , , , ,918.4 Q , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , ,760.3 Q , , , , , , , , , , ,652.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,497.0 Q , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,424.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,636.5 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,546.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,157.1 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,340.6 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,651.8 Q , , , , , , , , , , , ,364.5 Note: estimates are provisional 12 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT APRIL 2015 Statistics Botswana

14 Table 4: Percentage Change in Gross Value Added by Kind of Economic Activity at constant 2006 Prices Calendar year Mining Agriculture Manufacturing Water & Electricity Construction Trade, Hotels &Restaurants Transport & Communication Finance & Business Service General Government Socila & Personal Services Value Added Taxes on Import Other Taxes on products Subsdies Total GDP Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT APRIL 2015 Statistics Botswana

15 Table 5: Gross Domestic Product by Type of Expenditure at Current Prices (P million) Government Final Consumtion Household Final Consumption Gross Fixed Capital Formation Calendar year Central Govt Local Govt Total Non-Profit Institutions Household Consumption (Mkt) Household Consumption (Non- Mkt) Total Construction Machinery & Equipment Transport Equipment Mineral Prospecting Total , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Q1 1, , , , , ,764.2 Q2 1, , , , , ,939.6 Q3 1, , , , , ,960.5 Q4 1, , , , , , Q1 2, , , , , ,188.8 Q2 1, , , , , ,998.2 Q3 1, , , , , ,293.7 Q4 2, , , , , , Q1 1, , , , , ,560.8 Q2 1, , , , , ,753.2 Q3 2, , , , , , ,052.9 Q4 2, , , , , , , Q1 2, , , , , , ,198.8 Q2 2, , , , , , ,628.8 Q3 2, , , , , , ,171.7 Q4 2, , , , , , , Q1 3, , , , , , ,416.4 Q2 3, , , , , , ,547.9 Q3 3, , , , , , ,713.9 Q4 3, , , , , , , , Q1 3, , , , , , ,041.9 Q2 3, , , , , , , ,478.1 Q3 3, , , , , , ,543.1 Q4 3, , , , , , , Q1 3, , , , , , , ,746.7 Q2 3, , , , , , , ,067.2 Q3 3, , , , , , , ,673.6 Q4 3, , , , , , , , Q1 4, , , , , , , ,469.9 Q2 4, , , , , , , ,543.6 Q3 4, , , , , , , ,798.0 Q4 4, , , , , , , , Q1 4, , , , , , , ,720.9 Q2 4, , , , , , , ,712.0 Q3 4, , , , , , , ,024.0 Q4 4, , , , , , , , Q1 5, , , , , , , ,905.3 Q2 4, , , , , , , ,312.3 Q3 5, , , , , , , ,290.5 Q4 4, , , , , , , , Q1 5, , , , , , , ,703.3 Q2 4, , , , , , , ,586.9 Q3 5, , , , , , , ,135.8 Q4 5, , , , , , , , GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT APRIL 2015 Statistics Botswana

16 Table 5: Gross Domestic Product by Type of Expenditure at Current Prices (P million) cont d Change in Inventories Exports Imports Calendar year Livestock Minerals Others Total Gross Domestic Expenditure Goods Services Total Goods Services Total Erreors & Omissions Total GDP , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , ,253.2 Q , , , , , , ,073.4 Q , , , , , , ,476.7 Q , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , ,342.9 Q , , , , , ,126.6 Q , , , , , ,187.9 Q , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , , ,001.8 Q , , , , , , , , , ,209.8 Q , , , , , , , , , ,216.0 Q , , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , ,733.6 Q , , , , , , ,774.3 Q , , , , , , , , , , ,514.2 Q , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , ,484.8 Q , , , , , ,286.9 Q , , , , , ,148.8 Q , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , ,595.9 Q , , , , , , , ,731.5 Q , , , , , , ,472.0 Q , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , ,617.6 Q , , , , , , , ,914.4 Q , , , , , , , , ,107.0 Q , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , ,480.0 Q , , , , , , , , , ,640.8 Q , , , , , , , , , ,181.7 Q , , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , ,947.3 Q , , , , , , , ,531.9 Q , , , , , , , , ,985.7 Q , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , , , ,783.5 Q , , , , , , , ,852.1 Q , , , , , , , ,027.1 Q , , , , , , , , , Q , , , , , , , ,435.4 Q , , , , , , , ,650.3 Q , , , , , , , ,978.4 Q , , , , , , , , , GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT APRIL 2015 Statistics Botswana