Volkswagen and the Chinese Automotive Market

Transcription

1 Volkswagen and the Chinese Automotive Market Dr. Bernd Leissner Agenda Volkswagen Group China Summary 1

2 Volkswagen Group Production and Assembly Facilities Region Europe Region North America Region China Asia - Pacific Sales Region Production Assembly Region South America / Africa Volkswagen Group Deliveries to Customers Ranking 2003 (in 1,000)

3 Volkswagen Group - Structure VOLKSWAGEN GROUP AUTOMOTIVE DIVISION FINANCIAL SERVICES DIVISION Volkswagen brand group Audi brand group Commercial Vehicles Remaining companies Financial Services Europcar Dealer and customer financing Leasing Insurance Rental business Fleet business Volkswagen Group Key Figures Q1 Q vs. Q1 Q Q1 Q Q1 Q Deliveries to customers ( 000 units) 3,711 3,747 Production ( 000 units) 3,742 3,865 Workforce ( 000) Revenues (Mio. ) 64,112 67,396 Operating profit before special items (Mio. ) 1,850 1,466 Operating profit after special items (Mio. ) 1,730 1,242 Profit before tax (Mio. ) 1,

4 Outlook Interim Report January September 2004 Economic conditions have proved to be difficult so far in This is particularly due to persistently high oil prices and the ongoing adverse exchange rate situation for an automobile manufacturer generating a high proportion of its value added in Europe. Although we expect slight volume growth in the global automobile market for the year as a whole, given surplus capacity worldwide this will only be achieved via intense competition in terms of price and conditions. Despite this challenging environment, we are continuing our successful global model initiative to secure a leading position in all key vehicle segments. We are well on the way to achieving this goal with the Škoda Octavia, Audi A6, Audi A3 Sportback, SEAT Altea and Caddy Life models launched this year, as well as the planned launch of new Golf GTI, Audi A4, SEAT Toledo and Škoda Octavia Combi models. Deliveries to Volkswagen Group customers will probably be slightly over the previous year, but fall short of our original expectations. Our ForMotion program made a contribution to earnings at Group level of over 850 million in the first nine months of the year. For the year as a whole, we expect additional savings from sustained cost-cutting measures, combined with a restriction on capital expenditure and improvements in sales performance, to increase the amount to well over 1.0 billion. However, this will be partly offset by upfront expenditures, special product-related measures, structural and process changes linked to ForMotion; these special items will reduce earnings by up to 400 million. Taking into account these unchanged unfavorable conditions, we continue to expect a full-year 2004 operating profit of 1.9 billion before special items. Highlights of Volkswagen History Shanghai Volkswagen FAW-VW

5 Sales Volkswagen Group in China , , , , , , , , Explicit increases year by year Foreign Car Manufacturers in China Sanjiang-Renault Dongfeng Citroen Wuhan Fengshen (Nissan) Xiangfan Chang an Automotive Chongqing FAW-Toyota Chengdu Guizhou-Yunque Daimler Crysler / Mitsubishi / Hyundai Beijing D-C Zhengzhou-Nissan Jinbei-GM / BMW- Brilliance Shenyang Volkswagen / Audi / Toyota / Mazda Changchun Toyota Tianjin Daewoo / GM Yantai Yueda-Kia Yancheng Fiat Nanjing Volkswagen / GM Shanghai Jiangling Nanchang Shanghai-GM Liuzhou Mazda Haikou Mitsubishi Changsha Dongnan Mitsubishi Fuzhou Honda / Nissan Guangzhou 5

6 Pro-Active Product Strategy Volkswagen Group China Local Production >90% Import Vehicles Emotion, Trend Local Production >90% Import Vehicles Emotion, Trend Polo Hatch- / Notchback Gol Jetta GP Santana B2 New Beetle / Cabrio Golf GTI A6 Limousine TT Cabrio/ Roadster S6 Golf A4 Bora A4 Touareg A4 Limousine A4 Cabrio A6 Avant Passat Santana 3000 Sharan A6 Allroad Touran Caddy Phaeton A8 Sales and Marketing Strategy in China 6

7 Volkswagen Experience in Beijing Opportunities in the Chinese Market Strongest growth world wide, averaging 7 8% (2004: 9%) Export promotion particularly in special economic zones with majority shareholding Promotion of private owned cars New business area for foreign car makers car financing Development of used car market with international standards Negotiations to create a free trade area until 2010 between China and ASEAN 7

8 ASEAN and China Free Trade Union between China und ASEAN until 2010 Mongolia China Japan ASEAN Australia Import Tax after China s Joining WTO Component FBU Import FBU Import >3.0L % * * * WTO = World Trade Organization, FBU = Fully Built Up; average * Reduction from middle of the year 8

9 Challenges in the Chinese Market Currency fluctuations due to pegging to the US-Dollar Restriction of credits by state owned banks Limited resources: oil, electricity etc. Increasing social tensions and unemployment High material cost Challenge and Opportunity Nearly 80% Chinese Car Buyers are First-time Buyers First-time car buyers (percent of respondents) Ratio of average cost of compact car to average household income Experienced buyers 21% 2.3** First-time buyers 79% 95% China (N=900) 5% Japan (N=900) China Tier 1* Japan *Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou ** Does not include unreported income Source: McKinsey Automotive Branding Survey (December 2002); Chinese Statistical Yearbook; World Bank 0.2 9

10 New Auto Development Policy by the Government Protection of intellectual property Promotion of product development Promotion of increasing Local Content in China Duty to obtain a permit for new projects New Auto Development Policy by the Government Development of national suppliers including JV s Increase international competitiveness of Chinese suppliers Increase the ability to develop products independently Increase the ability to export 10

11 China is becoming an Auto Society in Mio. vehicle PC density per 100 people in 2002: Germany: Mexico: South Africa: China : % GDP growth 7% GDP growth Market in total Estimated car density per 100 people in 2020 in China 5 Volkswagen Group China became the official Partner of Automobile for the Olympic Games