Estimate Agile Projects and Improve Success

Transcription

1 Estimate Agile Projects and Improve Success David DeWitt Director Commercial and International Programs Galorath Webinar August 5 th 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 2015

2 In The Beginning. Thirty-five years ago Dr. Barry Boehm wrote the wildly successful book Software Engineering Economics The Cone of Uncertainty Gave Visibility to Cost Risk! 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 2

3 Jump Into The Time Machine A name is given to the collection of loose, iterative, customer centric development methods - Agile -.. and the challenge of estimating Agile began! 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 3

4 But.. Agile is a Development Methodology Not a Cost Model Iron Triangle of Software Development did not change Agile Challenges How We Look At Iron Triangle 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 4

5 Estimating Agile Shouldn t Be More Difficult It s Just Another Methodology Just like Waterfall Agile precision comes over time! Evolving Complexity Maximum Uncertainty ROM Detailed Estimate Cost Estimation Approach Remains the Same 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 5

6 Root Causes Of Bad Estimates In Agile Projects Team not really doing Agile Everyone seems to have their own hybrid which is code for management controls Immature process No one with previous experience, i.e.: no Scrum Master No training in the process being used Management gets in the way Micromanage the burn down chart Want to use velocity as productivity Assume Ideal Days = Capacity Days 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 6

7 Root Causes Of Bad Estimates In Agile Projects - Continued Bad Story Counting Trying to use counts across teams Using historical story point counts for new work Bad User Stories Ambiguous stories Stories with unchallenged assumptions Untestable stories Teams combine iterations Work exceeds the sprint so the sprint is exceeded Team locks into a repeatable time-box that is not practical Lack of good definition for Done No clear definition of when to move on or to keep going Team afraid to stop a sprint when done (literally boxed ) Product Owner or Customer non-responsive No way to remove ambiguity No way to push back against priorities 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 7

8 Are Agile Estimates Different? a Little Traditional Estimate Phases During Feasibility During Concept After Requirements After Design After Drops if Incremental Agile Estimate Phases During Feasibility Planning is the same Usually analogous During Concept Forecasts use Features, User Stories, etc. After Requirements This phase does not really exists After Design No, team is busy working Estimates typically become more accurate and less uncertain as the project progresses Estimate Each Release Working Estimates Are Critical 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 8

9 So-When Can an Estimate be Built? Planning Estimate (ROM) You still need to know how big it is likely to be Use Analogies to previous projects of similar scale and complexity or use historical data You still need to know Who, Where, and How Reread the principles of the Manifesto Don t expect good results if outsourcing part, using distributed teams, no qualified lead, or little buy-in from the customer Very similar to any traditional Top-Down estimate In fact build it the same way. Likely to rely on legacy experts 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 9

10 When Can an Estimate be Built? (continued) Forecast Estimate: (Backlog) You ve established your backlog (deliverables) Identified what incremental deliveries can be provided that make your customer happy A premise for delivered functionality has been established You ve identified the release cycle The number of iterations per delivery cycle are understood The number of days that comprise an iteration are known The exit criteria for a deliverable (feature) is established Handling of incomplete deliverables is understood Your team is known and customer fully engaged You know how many teams and ready to assign functionality The thrill of discovery is negotiated (Scope creep) 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 10

11 When Can an Estimate be Built? (continued) Working Estimate: (Release Planning) You have assessed your team and customer Is the customer proactive, distracted, or hyper-active? Are you really performing as an Agile project? Is management of Quality Control helping or hurting? You understand the individual team ability to deliver How likely is your velocity to increase on the next iteration? Is one team out performing another? Can you learn from that? Time to refactor the estimate Update the working estimate with the known velocity Consider any of the negatives and their impact 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 11

12 Reality Of Estimating Agile Projects Estimates still need to be generated for the total project Funding needs to be set aside Some assurance to management that it is feasible Consider Two Deliverable Estimates: Planning Estimate High level Rough Order Magnitude High level features, analogies to other projects, etc. Working Estimate - Iteration Planning Story Point count of User Stories or Features Refined over time as backlog burns down and discovery is made A third (and internal) is the Sprint Planning Estimate Commitment driven based upon team s capacity These are not management delivered estimates 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 12

13 But Initial Backlog is Fraught with Uncertainties Known & Unknown Constraints People Skills Process Knowledge New Technology Customer Availability Market Uncertainty Agile Can Only Help Mitigate This These Questions Are Best Answered By Parametric Models 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 13

14 What Do Parametric Models Provide Understand if all the work will fit in the release or sprint (Productivity doesn t lie) Compare productivity across teams regardless of sizing method Understand how many latent defects will be in the release/sprint Backlog prediction Know the impact of immature teams or good teams Instant visibility to offshore or vendor engagements Identify the impact of complex applications Tradeoff what should be done Waterfall or Agile Compare expected performance to historical data Dozens of additional project indicators Not Using A Parametric Model Is Flying (Almost) Blind 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 14

15 Models Give Instant Visibility What is the Real Story? Work Does Not Fit In Sprint Lots of Latent Defects Team B All Work Fits Twice the work Less Complex? 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 15

16 An Array of SEER Tools Support Agile Agile Knowledge Bases Specify by team s experience Sizing Template Manage team experience and different team velocities Size using Stories, Features, Ideal Days or any scale you like Activity and Labor Naming Schemas Custom life cycle activity naming Describe the roles of team members User Story Management Load stories into database for easy Sprint alignment 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 16

17 Parametric Allocations For Agile Are Built Into Knowledge Bases SEER Knowledge Bases drive parameter setting Simply pick the one that best characterizes your team/effort 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 17

18 To Build an Agile (Scrum) Estimate Four Simple Steps: 1. Set up the Environment 2. Convert the work to an appropriate SEER volume measure How much can we get done? 3. Determine how the estimate will be generated Perform a traditional early estimate using analogies Or load the database with User Stories, Use Cases, Features. Or generate a proxy for Scrum teams 4. Generate the Estimate Build Top Down estimate for total estimate of cost/effort/schedule Or build Bottom Up estimate to load sprints with work Or BOTH! 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 18

19 Not Limited To User Stories User Stories are the predominant Agile method used to capture desired product features Can just as easily use Function Points, Use Case Points, or any other volume collection approach SEER will identify possible Velocity per Sprint As the intent of Agile is to discover functionality for the estimate - need to know how fast it can be delivered but you choose the sizing approach Story Points per Sprint Function Points per Sprint Use Case Points per Sprint Requirements per Sprint Even Lines of Code per Sprint 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 19

20 Estimate the Full Life Cycle Costs Generate a high level estimate to ask questions How many releases or sprints are needed What is the total Cost/Effort/Schedule/Quality, etc. SEER Agile Knowledge Bases supply the parametric values Nothing has changed One still needs a rough order understanding of the size be it an analogy or list of features 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 20

21 When Ready to Generate Release Estimates Break the Model into Releases (and Sprints if desired) Allocate size by User Stories,Story Points or Manage Sprints in greater detail Easy to separate Sprints into multiple teams 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 21

22 One Moment On My Soap Box My Observed Pet Peeves 1. Agile is not Scrum 2. Scrum best for Complex 3. Hybrid Scrum is not Hybrid Agile 4. Avoiding Estimates 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 22

23 What Agile Method Are You Doing? Adaptive Software Development (ASD) Agile Modeling Agile Unified Process (AUP) Crystal Clear Methods (Crystal Clear) Disciplined Agile Delivery Dynamic Systems Development Method (DSDM) Feature Driven Development (FDD) Lean software development Kanban Scrum-ban XP TDD Lean Scrum But Most People Think Agile = Scrum Only 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 23

24 Agile is a Mindset NOT a methodology So what was Scrum intended for. The COMPLEX The inventors of Scrum say they intended it for here! Source: Strategic Management and Organizational Dynamics by Ralph Stacey in Agile Software Development with Scrum by Ken Schwaber and Mike Beedle Copyright Galorath Incorporated 24

25 Are Agile Projects Successful? In a recent Galorath post, World s Largest Agile Program Goes Back To Waterfall The UK s Universal Credit Welfare System, a complex IT project that involves switching off multiple benefits and reworking them into a new tax credit system was, by most accounts, the most ambitious agile software development project in history. Suppliers include Accenture, Cap Gemini, HP, and IBM. Quoting Computer Weekly DWP drops agile from flagship government software project Best assumption is that they were not doing Agile! 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 25

26 Hybrid Scrum vs. Hybrid Agile Hybrid Scrum is likely what the UK Credit Welfare System did and blamed their failures on Agile. Hybrid Agile is probably what should have been done. Some industry practices around Hybrid Agile. Break Agile practices into four layers: Technical Skills, Iteration Management, Products and Projects, and Portfolio Governance. Multiple methods can be successfully deployed by layers, especially when one Agile method may be more appropriate than another 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 26

27 Motley Fools Uses A Mix of Agile Methodologies: Scrum and XP to exploit technical design issues and iterative releases for new systems; Kanban for enhancements and systems maintenance, as it allows workflows to be streamlined. So are you Agile.. Or are you Scrum? 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 27

28 Some in Agile Community Declared War On Estimates Story Points And Velocity Are Powerful Root Level Management Techniques but. They don t provide Business case analysis Ability to verify outsource bids Risk analysis Outside view Moving away from Story Points Not scalable and only locally usable Have seen more success by teams adopting Task centric sizing Perfect Days, Hour Blocks, Function Points 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 28

29 Are Agile Estimates Needed Yes - And It s not hard.. Be Agile! 2015 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 29

30 In Closing and to Reinforce. Applying proven estimation methods to Agile projects brings greater clarity and understanding of the nuances introduced in Agile projects An estimation model removes many ambiguities and uncertainties by providing greater insight into the likeliness of achieving project cost and schedule Parametric cost estimates for an Agile project can: - Help with release planning - Deliver backlog indicators - Help understand impact of ever changing environmental factors Galorath provides a One-Day hands on workshop for building Agile estimates in SEER for Software and a Workshop on Story Points Thank you for your time and your attention Feel free to contact us with any questions info@galorath.com Copyright Galorath Incorporated 30