Leasing in Europe & Beyond: State of Play & Outlook. Bucharest November 2014

Transcription

1 Leasing in Europe & Beyond: State of Play & Outlook Bucharest November 2014

2 Agenda 1 - Leasing in Europe & beyond 2 - State of the industry 3 - Industry performance 4 - Outlook for the future

3 1- Leasing in Europe & beyond

4 Global Leasing Markets in 2013 Canada 8% 5% CFLA 17 bil US ELFA 186 bil -11% 1% Brazil ABEL 4 bil New equipment leasing volumes. ELFA figures do not include passenger car leasing. Leaseurope 252 bil Source: Leaseurope 2013 Annual Survey, local leasing associations, Leaseurope estimates China CLBA 239 bil Australia AELA & AFLA 32 bil Japan JLA 40 bil 8% 33% -13% 4

5 % YoY Evolution of the European Leasing Market European leasing market - new volume growth (% YoY) 25% Total outstandings: (2012 vs 2013) 0.5% 15% 5% -5% % -15% -25% 0.7% -17.4% -35% Total volumes Real Estate Equipment incl vehicles bil 13.5 bil bil New Volumes 2013 Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year & are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations 2007 onwards Source: Leaseurope Annual Surveys

6 Annual growth of new leasing volumes per country 2013/ % European Leasing Market in 2013 Over 10% 5 to 10% Members not reporting & non - members 0 to 5% -5 to 0% -10 to -5% Under - 10% Leaseurope s 2013 Annual Survey Growth rates are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations

7 European Leasing Market in 2013 Leased assets Total new lease volumes per asset category, % 6% 11% % Real estate Machines & equip 6% 10% % 16% CVs Cars 16% 7% 43% ICT Big/other 5% 45% Source: 2013 Annual Survey 63% Automotive

8 European Leasing Market in 2013 New lease volumes per asset type % period on period (2013/2012) Machinery ICT CVs Cars Big Other 20% Total 20% Real estate Movables 25% 20% 15% 15% 15% 10% 5% 0.7% 10% 5% 1.9% 10% 5% 5.2% 5.0% 0% -5% 0% -5% 0% -5% -1.9% -0.3% -10% -15% -10% -15% -17.4% -10% -15% -20% -7.4% -8.8% Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year & are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations Source: 2013 Annual Survey based on 33 members reporting

9 European Leasing Market in 2013 Regional performance by movable asset category New business growth - annual % change (2013/2012) 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% Germany UK France Italy Mediterranean Benelux, AT & CH CEE Nordic & Baltic countries Russia -60% -80% -100% -120% Machinery & Industrial Equipment ICT Big Other Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting & are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations Source: Leaseurope 2013 Annual Survey

10 European Leasing Market in 2013 RE leasing vs total leasing by region (2013/2012) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% Germany France Italy Mediterranean Benelux, AT & CH CEE Nordic & Baltic countries Russia Real estate Total Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting & are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations Source: Leaseurope 2013 Annual Survey * Real estate for IT includes some renewable energy assets

11 European Leasing Market in 2013 Regional performance automotive sector New business growth - annual % change (2013/2012) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Benelux, AT & CH Germany UK France Italy Mediterranean CEE Nordic & Russia Baltic countries Leaseurope (2013) New business 6.8 million units 129 billion 36.8% of new car sales Fleet 16 million units Passenger cars Commercial vehicles Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting & are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations Source: Leaseurope 2013 Annual Survey

12 European Leasing Penetration Share of equipment investment financed by leasing (2013) > 30% 25% to 30% 20% to 25% 15% to 20% Equipment penetration 22% 10% to 15% < 10 % NA Lease penetration is the share of total investment financed by leasing calculated as new leasing volumes (excluding consumers)/ gross fixed capital formation in equipment

13 European Leasing Market in 2013 Leasing clients New movables leasing volumes by client sector (2013) Public sector 3% 2% Other Consumers 22% % movable leasing volumes Businesses 73% Source: 2013 Annual Survey

14 2- State of the industry

15 Characteristics of European Market Players Rank Company name 1 Country New business 2013 ( bil) Société Générale Leasing Solutions (incl. ALD Automotive) France 11,966,354 2 BNP Paribas Leasing Solutions (incl. Arval) France 11,920,580 3 Volkswagen Leasing Germany 10,366,097 4 De Lage Landen Netherlands 9,735,033 # of European countries 29 * * * 5 UniCredit Leasing Italy 8,807,820 6 Deutsche Leasing Germany 7,387,000 7 Nordea Finance Sweden 5,089,070 8 LeasePlan Corporation N.V. Netherlands 4,460,192 9 Alphabet Germany 4,292, OJSC VEB Leasing Russia 4,154, Credit Agricole Leasing & Factoring France 4,002,907 Companies with volumes > 4 billion are shown here, incl. number of countries inside Europe in which they operate *These companies also have operations outside Europe (e.g. in 2013, DLL granted 11 billion in new volumes outside Europe) Source: Leaseurope s Ranking Survey 2013 of Top European Leasing Firms * * * *

16 # of firms reporting Characteristics of European Market Players Market concentration: % of total new volumes reported in 2013 Ranking Survey New entrants unlikely Trends: Some large firms downscaled Consolidation amongst existing top players All firms in Ranking All new volumes reported 130 bil TOP 20 TOP % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % of total new volumes reported in Ranking TOP 10 TOP 20 % of all new volumes reported 60% % of all new volumes reported 81% Source: Leaseurope 2013 Ranking Survey of Top European Leasing Companies

17 3 - Industry performance

18 Characteristics of European Market Players The Leaseurope Index median ratios (Q Q2 2014) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Profitability ratio 36,1% 39,0% 31,9% 37,1% 29,8% 41,2% 45,2% 2013 Q Q Q Q Q Q (full year) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cost / income ratio 46,8% 45,0% 45,3% 46,4% 49,4% 45,0% 43,7% 2013 Q Q Q Q Q Q (full year) 0,8% 0,6% 0,4% 0,2% 0,0% Source: Leaseurope Index Cost of risk ratio 0,5% 2013 (full year) 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,7% 0,4% 0,3% Q Q Q Q Q Q2 2014

19 Characteristics of European Market Players The Leaseurope Index median ratios (Q Q2 2014) RoA 2,0% 1,8% 1,8% 40% 35% RoE 34,2% 1,6% 1,4% 1,2% 1,0% 0,8% 1,0% 1,3% 1,4% 1,3% 1,0% 1,4% 30% 25% 20% 15% 24,2% 25,5% 22,3% 25,5% 16,5% 25,2% 0,6% 0,4% 0,2% 10% 5% 0,0% 2013 (full year) Q Q Q Q Q Q % 2013 (full year) Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Leaseurope Index

20 Leaseurope Index Profitability per asset segment, medians ( ) 45% 42,1% 40% 35% 32,5% 31,1% 32,6% 35,2% 34,9% 36,1% 31,3% 35,6% 31,9% 30% 25% 26,1% 27,8% 29,1% 27,6% 20% 16,9% 15% 10% 7,7% 5% 0% Equipment Real estate Passenger cars & LCVs Commercial vehicles Source: Leaseurope Index

21 4 - Outlook for the future

22 Biannual growth of new leasing volumes per country European Leasing Market in H H1 2014/ % Over 10% 5 to 10% Members not reporting & non - members 0 to 5% -5 to 0% -10 to -5% Under - 10% Source: Leaseurope Member Associations 29 Member Associations reporting; growth rates adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations

23 % Survey respondents European Leasing Market in 2014 Profitability is recovering slowly Past Expectations H Expectations for H % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Survey date Decrease No change *% change period on same period a year ago Source: Business Confidence Survey, June 2014; Leaseurope Index Q Q Q Pre-tax profit (% change*) 16.0% 15.1% Profitability ratio % 32.7% 33.3% Increase 58% of respondents expect profit June '12 Dec '12 June '13 Dec '13 June '14

24 European Leasing Market in 2014 Balance of expectations for business over next six months New Business Volumes Margins Bad Debt Net Profit Balance between respondents expressing positive and negative opinions of the outlook over the next six months Source: Leaseurope/Invigors Business Confidence Survey June 2014

25 Concluding remarks The European market is one of the largest leasing markets in the world. Leasing plays a central role at the heart of the real economy. Future trends Develop services and solutions (mobility ) Finance new markets (cloud, third platform, new energy ) Foster innovation (big data ) Asset focus and specialisation (new energy ) Support customers and vendors globally Looking ahead, the European leasing industry must be a at the forefront of innovative financing solutions in order to take advantage of the shift from ownership to usage

26 Leasing in Europe & Beyond: State of Play and Outlook Barcelona October 2014