CO 2 EMISSIONS FROM PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN INDIA: TO

Transcription

1 CO 2 EMISSIONS FROM PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN INDIA: TO Sanjay Kumar Singh Associae Professor of Economics, Indian Insiue of Managemen Lucknow, India ([email protected]) Absrac The main aim of his sudy is o forecas he level of raffic mobiliy and CO 2 (carbon dioxide) emissions from he land-based passenger ransporaion in India up o he year There are ypically wo ways o esimae fuure raffic mobiliy. The firs approach is generally based on independen projecions of raffic volume per mode of ranspor over ime. Typically, each modal projecion is buil on a differen mehod, and he oal raffic volume becomes simply an aggregae of he independen esimaes for he various modes. The second approach is based on projecion of moorized mobiliy in a firs sep, and he relaed modal spli is compued aferwards. The second approach is a beer one for developing long-erm scenarios since i akes ino accoun he compeiion beween modes. This paper follows he second approach o allow formulaion of aggregae and long-erm scenarios. This aggregae approach will be useful when we analyze he ranspor sysems impac on he environmen. The forecasing model used in his paper is mainly buil on wo explanaory variables: Gross Domesic Produc (GDP) and populaion. Annual daa from o 2-1 are used o esimae he fuure raffic volume in India. I is found ha he moorized raffic volume in India will very nearly ouch he mark of 13 billion passenger-km in 22-21, ou of which 91.7% will be provided by he roads and he res by railways. Based on he projeced values of aggregae raffic volume and modal spli, he paper esimaes he level and growh of CO 2 emission from passenger ranspor secor in India. If here is no reducion in modal CO 2 inensiies, CO 2 emission is projeced o increase from 19.8 million meric ons of carbon equivalen in 2-1 o million meric ons of carbon equivalen in Even when we assume a reducion of 1% per year in CO 2 inensiy of all modes of ranspor, CO 2 emission is projeced o increase a he rae of 7% per year beween 2-1 and Keywords: passenger ranspor, India, CO 2 emission 1. Inroducion Passenger mobiliy in India relies heavily on rail and road. Passenger ravel by air and waer is negligible in comparison o rail and road. On an average, an Indian raveled 285 Kms in a year during , ou of which 185 Kms was by rail and 1 Kms by road. In a span of five decades heir annual ravel figure jumped o 347 Kms 449 Kms by rail and 321 Kms by road. From o 2-1, passenger ravel per ia (measured in erms of passenger-kilomeers per ia; PKm/) by road and rail aken ogeher increased a he rae of 5.13% per annum agains he per ia Gross Domesic Produc (GDP) growh of around 2.23% per annum. The growh of road-based passenger mobiliy (PKm) during he las 5 years has been around 9.17% per year agains he corresponding compound annual growh rae of 3.93% by rail. Consequenly, he road share in passenger mobiliy increased from 35% in o 87% in 2-1. Rapid increase in ravel demand and increasing reliance on road ranspor has serious implicaions for environmen. Already, ranspor secor is he major cause of air polluion in urban areas. I conribues significanly o major environmenal challenges boh a local as well as global levels. Designing and implemenaion of effecive sraegies o reduce ranspor secor s impac on environmen require a reliable projecion of moorized mobiliy for he forhcoming years. This paper lays he foundaion for he same. The paper is organized as follow. Secion 2 presens he aggregae as well as mode-wise raffic volume daa from o 2-1. Secion 3 deals wih he model, model esimaion, projecion of per ia as well as absolue mobiliy, and esimaion of modal spli changes from 2-1 o Secion 4 describes he CO 2 emission scenarios. The paper s findings are summarized in Secion 5.

2 2. Passenger mobiliy in India during he pas five decades Time series daa of land-based raffic volume in erms of passenger-kilomeer from o 2-1 are esimaed. The daa sources and esimaion mehods are summarized in he Appendix. These daa accoun for he five major modes of ranspor, namely cars (including jeeps and axis), wo-wheelers, auo-rickshaws, buses and railways. Passenger raffic volume in India increased from 12 billion passenger-kilomeers (BPKm) in o 3536 BPKm in 2-1 due o a fold increase in annual disance raveled by he people (from 285 Kms in o 347 Kms in 2-1), and a 2.84-fold rise in populaion (from 359 million in o 119 million in 2-1). Analysis of per ia mobiliy daa shows ha he average annual disance raveled by he people riples in every wo decades (Figure 1). Alhough a large proporion of he mobiliy need is sill caered o by he buses, here is increasing reliance on auomobiles in recen years. For example, during 199s per ia mobiliy by wo-wheelers, auo-rickshaws and cars increased by 124%, 13% and 9% respecively, agains he corresponding increase of 6% for buses and a meager 27% for railways. Thus, mobiliy share of privae- and para-ransi modes increased from 16.2% in o 21.2% in 2-1, whereas share of boh buses and railways declined during he same period (Figure 2). Figure 1. Mode-wise moorized mobiliy per ia in India Buses Trains Two-wheelers Cars Auo-rickshaws PKm/ Year Alhough railways had played a dominan role in providing passenger mobiliy from he second half of he nineeenh cenury o he early 195s, he rail-sysem has been coninuously loosing is ground from he lae 195s. Beween and 2-1, rail-based passenger mobiliy increased a he rae of 3.93% per annum agains he corresponding annual growh rae of 9.17% for roads. This was largely due o remendous increase in he moor vehicle populaion in he las hree decades or so. Currenly, moor vehicle populaion in India is growing a a rae of around 1% per annum. In here were abou 21 million vehicles in he counry. Afer 1 years in 2-1, his number increased by more han 2.5 fold o 55 million. The vehicle populaion in India is growing faser in he caegory of wo-wheelers and hreewheelers (auo-rickshaws). During o 2-1, he wo-wheeler and hree-wheeler populaion grew a an average annual rae of 15.6% and 14.9% respecively. The growh in populaion of car was relaively modes. In he las five decades, car populaion increased a he rae of 7.9% per year. The corresponding figure for buses was 5.7%. If we compare he growh rae in recen years, say from o 2-1, we find ha boh cars as well as wo-wheelers were growing a he rae of around 1.5%

3 per year, and hree-wheelers (auo-rickshaws) increased a he rae of 11.3% per annum. During he same period bus populaion increased only a he rae of 4.5% per annum, whereas oal moor vehicle populaion increased a he rae of 1.2% per annum. As income of he people increases demand for personalized modes of ranspor is expeced o increase more rapidly. The modal spli indicaes ha in , abou 31% of he oal vehicles were wo-wheelers, which increased o 7% in a span of jus hree decades. As a resul, he percenage share of buses in oal moor vehicle populaion declined from 4.9% in o 1.% in 2-1. Figure 2. Share of differen modes in providing passenger mobiliy in India Mobiliy share (%) Year Buses Privae- and para-ransi modes Railways 3. Passenger mobiliy in India during he nex wo decades 3.1. The model The demand for mobiliy depends on various socio-economic facors such as age disribuion and household composiion, employmen, educaional level, supply of public ranspor services, infrasrucure availabiliy, governmen policy owards auomobiles and ranspor, prices of differen ranspor services, fuel and vehicle prices, income of he people, ec. A he naional level, he relaionship beween per ia mobiliy and facors influencing he same can be wrien as: PKm = f (X ) (1) where PKm is passenger-kilomeers per ia (represening per ia mobiliy) and X is a vecor of variables deermining he level of per ia mobiliy. Using equaion (1), i is possible o esimae he fuure level of mobiliy if daa for each of he variables on he righ hand side are available. However, ime series daa for many of hese variables are no readily available for India. In his siuaion, i is imporan o find ou he key deerminans of mobiliy for which ime series daa are available. Schafer (1998), Dargay and Gaely (1999), Schafer and Vicor (2), Preson (21) and many ohers have shown ha here is a close relaionship beween income and demand for mobiliy. The srong relaionship beween income and mobiliy is found for boh cross-

4 counry as well as ime-series daa. Figure 3, which presens he relaionship beween per ia mobiliy and per ia GDP for India, reieraes he same. Therefore, in his paper, per ia GDP is used as he main explanaory variable o projec fuure passenger mobiliy in India. Assuming ha ime ures he effecs of he omied variables, equaion (1) can now be approximaed by PKm GDP = f (, ime) (2) In a pracical forecasing problem, he saisical naure of he daa-generaing process is unknown and he forecaser s ask is o selec a model ha bes approximaes he real life daa generaing process. For a ime series like he per ia passenger mobiliy, i is conceivable ha he series converges o a maximum as income reaches a cerain level. If we plo level of passenger mobiliy per ia agains GDP per ia, he graph is expeced o look like some sor of a S-shaped curve. Passenger mobiliy is expeced o increase slowly a he lowes income levels, and hen more rapidly as income rises, finally slow down as sauraion is approached. There are a number of differen funcional forms ha can describe such a process; for example, he logisic, Gomperz, logarihmic logisic, log reciprocal and cumulaive normal funcions (Dargay and Gaely, 1999). An overview of such funcional forms is given in Meade and Islam (1998); see also Meade and Islam (1995), Bewley and Fiebig (1988), Franses (22), and Mohamed and Bodger (25). Applicaion of such funcional forms o projec he raffic mobiliy in India can be seen from Ramanahan (1998), Ramanahan and Parikh (1999), and Singh (2). These sudies in he Indian conex have used ime as he only explanaory variable o projec he fuure mobiliy in India. Among various funcional forms, he logisic and Gomperz funcions are he wo mos widely used ones o describe a process represened by a S-shaped curve. This paper also uses hese wo funcions o model and forecas passenger mobiliy in India. The logisic model can be wrien as PKm ) α = GDP 1+ γ exp( β ( ) ( (3) λ( ime) + ε ) where α is he sauraion level and ε is an error erm a period. All he parameers α, β, γ and λ are posiive. Similarly, he Gomperz model can be wrien as PKm ) GDP = α exp( γexp( β ( ) λ( ime) )) + ε ( (4) where α is he sauraion level and ε is an error erm a period. All he parameers α, β, γ and λ are posiive. Parameers γ, β and λ define he shape or curvaure of he funcion. Models (3) and (4) need o be ransformed ino a linear form in order o esimae hem using Ordinary Leas Squares (OLS) mehod. The logisic model (3) can be ransformed in a linear form as follows α GDP ln( 1) = β + β1( ) + β 2 ( ime) PKm ( ) + ε (5) where α is he sauraion level and ε is an error erm a period. Parameer β is posiive and boh β 1 and β 2 are negaive. Similarly, he Gomperz model (4) can be ransformed as α GDP ln[ln( )] = β + β1( ) + β 2 ( ime) PKm ( ) + ε (6) where α is he sauraion level and ε is an error erm a period. Parameer β is posiive and boh β 1 and β 2 are negaive. Models (5) and (6) can be esimaed by OLS provided we know he sauraion level α. Alhough i is possible o esimae he sauraion level, here is no guaranee ha he final esimae of he sauraion level, α, is close o he global opimum (Heij C. e al., 24). Therefore, o esimae he models, i is

5 essenial o ge a reliable esimae of he sauraion level of per ia mobiliy. I s possible o ge a reliable esimae of he sauraion level by making a reasonable assumpion abou he ime spen on ravel per person per day (i.e., ravel ime budge) and average speed of vehicles. For example, if all demands are me a an average speed of 3 km/hour and he ravel ime budge is fixed a 1.1 hour/ia/day, he oal annual disance ravel would be around 12 km/ia. Schafer (1998) shows ha he ime spen on ravel per person per day are virually unchanged wih respec o per ia income across he counries. Alhough he reason for ravel ime budge sabiliy is no very clear, Marchei (1994) argued ha a ravel ime budge of around one hour per ia per day reflecs a basic human insinc. He argued ha perhaps securiy of he home and family, he mos durable uni of human organizaion, limis exposure o he risk of ravel. Also, raveling is naurally limied by oher aciviies such as sleep, leisure, and work. Even when ime spen on any of hese aciviies changes, here is evidence ha he ravel ime budge remains consan (Marchei, 1994). Time-use and ravel surveys from numerous ciies and counries hroughou he world sugges ha ravel ime budge is approximaely 1.1 hour per person per day (Schafer and Vicor, 2). So, if we assume ha all demands are me a a maximum possible (average) speed of 3 km/hour, mobiliy per ia of 12 will be he sauraion level. Considering he socio-economic characerisics of India (such as populaion densiy, rapid increase in elephone densiy, expeced boom in informaion echnology, greaer reliance on public ranspor, high fuel prices, ec.) and he level as well as growh in per ia mobiliy in he developed world, 12 PKm per ia appears o be he appropriae sauraion level for India. Figure 3. Moorized mobiliy (car, wo-wheeler, auo-rickshaw, bus, and rail) per ia vs GDP per ia in India beween and PKm/ GDP/ 3.2. Model esimaion The logisic model (5) and he Gomperz model (6) are esimaed using he economeric sofware LIMDEP Version 8.. Boh he models have been esimaed for hree differen sauraion levels: 12, 16 and 2 PKm/ia. Annual daa of passenger mobiliy per ia (PKm/ia) and GDP/ia (Rs. in housand a prices) from o 2-1 are used for he esimaion of he models. The variable ime akes he following values: 1 for , 2 for , 3 for ,, and so on. Table 1 repors he esimaion resuls. According o he R 2 values, he models fi he daa very well. We also compare he prediced values wih he acual values of PKm/ia over he sample period and found he same. The Mean Absolue Percenage Error (MAPE) presened in Table 1, is in he range

6 of 3.86 o 3.93 for he logisic models and 5.77 o 6.8 for he Gomperz models. All he esimaed parameers have he expeced signs and mos are highly significan. To projec he fuure per ia mobiliy up o he year 22-21, we have o make reasonable assumpions abou he per ia GDP growh rae. Beween and 23-4, per ia GDP in India increased a he rae of around 4.3% per annum. Assuming ha GDP/ia will increase a he same rae up o 22-21, passenger mobiliy per ia has been projeced for he fuure (Figure 4). Since according o MAPE he logisic model is a beer model han he Gomperz, and as discussed in he Secion 3.1, sauraion level is expeced o be around 12 PKm per ia, he nex sage of he discussion will be based on he esimaed logisic model wih sauraion level a 12 PKm per ia. Table 1. Parameer esimaes of he logisic and Gomperz models (wih -saisic in parenheses) Model Esimae Sauraion level, α = 12 Logisic (5) β = (127.9), β 1 = (8.2), β 2 = (34.3); R 2 =.996; MAPE = 3.93 Gomperz (6) β = (11.1), β 1 = (15.), β 2 = (17.3); R 2 =.993; MAPE = 6.8 Sauraion level, α = 16 Logisic (5) β = (14.), β 1 = (7.1), β 2 = (35.7); R 2 =.996; MAPE = 3.89 Gomperz (6) β = (115.9), β 1 = (13.7), β 2 = (18.9); R 2 =.993; MAPE = 5.9 Sauraion level, α = 2 Logisic (5) β = (149.4), β 1 = (6.5), β 2 = (36.5); R 2 =.996; MAPE = 3.86 Gomperz (6) β = (128.4), β 1 = (13.), β 2 = (2.); R 2 =.993; MAPE = 5.77 Figure 4. Assumpions and projecions of land-based per ia mobiliy in India 13 PKm/ Logisic (sa.: 2) Logisic (sa.: 16) Logisic (sa.: 12) Gomperz (sa.: 2) Gomperz (sa.: 16) Gomperz (sa.: 12) Year

7 3.3. Projecion of per ia as well as absolue mobiliy up o On he basis of he esimaed logisic model for 12 PKm per ia sauraion level and assumpions concerning populaion and GDP, projecions of per ia as well as absolue mobiliy up o are obained. As saed in he previous secion, per ia GDP is assumed o grow a he rae of 4.3% per annum up o Based on World Populaion Prospecs: The 24 Revision Populaion Daabase published by he Unied Naions Populaion Division, populaion of India is assumed o grow a he rae of 1.56% per annum from 2-1 o 25-6, 1.41% per annum from 25-6 o 21-11, 1.27% per annum from o , and 1.11% per annum from o Figure 5 presens he fuure mobiliy rends up o I shows ha in 22-21, average Indians will ravel abou hrice as many kilomeers as hey raveled in 2-1. Absolue passenger mobiliy in India a he end of will virually ouch he mark of 13 billion PKm. On an average, per ia mobiliy and absolue raffic volume in India are expeced o increase a he rae of 5.31% and 6.72% per annum respecively in he nex wo decades. However, growh in boh mobiliy per ia and absolue raffic volume are expeced o be higher during 2-11 han (Table 2). Figure 5. Fuure mobiliy rends in India 15 PKm/ 12 BPKm Year Table 2. Level as well as growh of land-based passenger mobiliy in India from o Per ia mobiliy (PKm/) CAGR in per ia mobiliy (since he previous period) Absolue mobiliy (BPKm) CAGR in absolue mobiliy (since he previous period) % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

8 3.4. Modal spli changes As shown in Figure 3, increase in per ia GDP resuls in rise in per ia moorized mobiliy. Assuming ha an average person spends some fixed ime (approximaely 1.1 hour per day) on ravel, mean ravel speed has o increase wih he increase in per ia mobiliy. Because differen ranspor modes operae wih differen ranges of speed, increase in mobiliy changes he modal spli owards flexible and faser ranspor modes. Thus, as per ia mobiliy and per ia GDP increase, raffic share of public ranspor modes such as buses and rains decrease and share of privae- and para-ransi modes increase. Figure 6 shows he relaionship beween mobiliy and share of low speed public ranspor. The share of public ranspor modes wen down from 93.4% in o 78.8% in 2-1 in a linear fashion as per ia mobiliy increased from 285 Km in o 347 Km in 2-1. Similar relaionship is found beween share of public ranspor modes and per ia GDP (Figure 7). Boh provide somewha idenical fuure values for he share of public ranspor modes up o I is esimaed ha he share of low speed public ranspor (buses and rains) in India will be around 52% during (Figure 8). Since he share of buses and rains in he public ranspor modes are virually unchanged from onwards a around 84% and 16% respecively, we assume ha he same paern will be followed up o he year Based on his assumpion, he share of buses and rains in meeing he passenger ravel demand in fuure has been projeced. I is esimaed ha 43.6% of raffic mobiliy in India in will be provided by he buses and 8.3% by he rains (Figure 8). Similarly, we projeced he share of high speed privae- and para-ransi modes (cars, wowheelers, and auo-rickshaws) up o Figure 9 presens he same along wih he share of individual modes. I is esimaed ha he combined share of hese modes in India would be around 48% during he year Since, in his case also, he share of cars, wo-wheelers, and auo-rickshaws wihin he privae- and para-ransi modes are virually unchanged from onwards a 37%, 49%, and 14% respecively, we assume ha he same paern will be followed ill Based on his assumpion, he share of individual high speed modes in meeing he passenger ravel demand in fuure has been projeced (Figure 9). I is esimaed ha, during he year 22-21, 17.8% of he land-based raffic mobiliy in India will be provided by he cars, 23.6% by he wo-wheelers, and 6.7% by he auorickshaws. Figure 6. Traffic share of public ranspor modes (buses and rains) a differen level of per ia mobiliy beween and 2-1 Traffic share of public ranspor modes (%) Share = (PKm/ia); R 2 = PKm/ia

9 Figure 7. Traffic share of public ranspor modes (buses and rains) a differen level of income beween and 2-1 Traffic share of public ranspor modes (%) Share = (GDP/ia); R 2 = GDP/ia (Rs. in housand a prices) Figure 8. Share of public ranspor modes (buses and rains) during he nex wo decades 1 Share (%) Aggregae share of public ranspor modes Share of buses Share of rains Year

10 Figure 9. Share of privae- and para-ransi modes (cars, wo-wheelers, and auo-rickshaws) during he nex wo decades 75 Share (%) 5 25 Aggregae share of privae- and para-ransi modes Share of wo-wheelers Share of cars Share of auo-rickshaws Year CO 2 emission from passenger ranspor secor The problem of climaic change is one of he mos serious consequences of he emission of large quaniies of CO 2 and oher greenhouse gases ino he amosphere. Transpor in general and road ranspor in paricular consiues a major share in he CO 2 emissions. Vehicles using fossil fuels (diesel and gasoline) produce CO 2 emissions in quaniies ha depend on he carbon presen in he fuel molecule. Globally, he ranspor secor now conribues 25% of all he CO 2 emissions released ino he amosphere. Approximaely 8% of hose emissions are from road ranspor. Alhough, currenly, India is one of he lowes per ia emiers of CO 2, a.27 meric ons of carbon equivalen, energy secor s carbon inensiy is high, and he counry s oal CO 2 emissions rank among he world s highes. In 22, CO 2 emission in India was around 28 million meric ons of carbon equivalen which was around 4% of he world oal (Inernaional Energy Annual 22). Beween 198 and 22, India s carbon emission increased a an asonishing rae of 5.7% per annum agains he world average of 1.26%. The aim of his secion is o esimae he presen as well as fuure CO 2 emission from he passenger ranspor secor in India. For his, we have o esimae he CO 2 emission inensiies for all he major modes. Table 6 and 7 summarizes he esimaed 2-1 CO 2 inensiies and heir projeced values for along wih he level of CO 2 emission from he secor (2-1 CO 2 inensiies by mode have been esimaed on he basis of he daa provided by Ramanahan and Parikh (1999)). Here, wo scenarios, business as usual and efficiency gain, are discussed Business as usual (BAU) scenario In he BAU scenario, he CO 2 inensiies of all ground ranspor modes excep rail are assumed o remain a 2-1 levels. The rail CO 2 inensiy is differen because we assume ha he elecrified roues will caer o he need of 8% of he rail passenger raffic in raher han he curren level of 4%. In he BAU scenario, CO 2 emission is projeced o increase from 19.8 o million meric ons of carbon equivalen in a span of 2 years beween 2-1 and (Table 6). Figure 1 presens he per ia CO 2 emission from passenger ransporaion during he year 2-1 and In he BAU scenario, CO 2 emission per person is projeced o increase a he rae of 6.63% per year from kilograms of carbon equivalen in 2-1 o 7.17 kilograms of carbon equivalen in Efficiency gain scenario In he efficiency gain scenario, he CO 2 inensiies of all modes decline a he rae of 1% per year up o by assuming ha his may happen due o he echnological change (fuel efficiency improvemens and ransporaion fuels wih lower carbon conen), improvemen in ransporaion sysem managemen and/or some combinaion of hese wo. Emphasis on efficiency improvemens is expeced o reduce he

11 CO 2 emission significanly. In his scenario, he CO 2 emission in is esimaed o be million meric ons of carbon equivalen, around 18% less han he emission in he BAU scenario (Table 7). Similarly, per ia CO 2 emission in in his scenario is projeced o be kilograms of carbon equivalen raher han 7.17 (Figure 1). One should noe ha even if here is a reducion in CO 2 inensiy of all modes by 1% per year, he level of CO 2 emission from passenger ransporaion in India will increase a he rae of around 7% per year from 2-1 o Figure 1. Per ia CO 2 emission from differen modes of ranspor (kilograms of carbon equivalen) Kgs of carbon equivalen Privae- and para-ransi modes (Business as Usual Scenario) (Efficiency Gain Scenario) Buses Trains Toal Table 6. Inensiies and he level of CO 2 emission from differen modes of ranspor; business as usual scenario Mode of ranspor (Business as Usual Scenario) Privae and pararansi modes (car, wo-wheeler, and auo-rickshaw) BPKm CO 2 inensiy (grams of carbon equivalen per PKm) CO 2 emission (million meric ons of carbon equivalen) BPKm CO 2 inensiy (grams of carbon equivalen per PKm) CO 2 emission (million meric ons of carbon equivalen) Bus Rail Toal

12 Table 7. Inensiies and he level of CO 2 emission from differen modes of ranspor; efficiency gain scenario Mode of ranspor (Efficiency Gain Scenario) Privae and pararansi modes (car, wo-wheeler, and auo-rickshaw) BPKm CO 2 inensiy (grams of carbon equivalen per PKm) CO 2 emission (million meric ons of carbon equivalen) BPKm CO 2 inensiy (grams of carbon equivalen per PKm) CO 2 emission (million meric ons of carbon equivalen) Bus Rail Toal Concluding remarks In his sudy, we projeced he level of raffic mobiliy and CO 2 emission from land-based passenger ransporaion in India up o The level of land-based passenger raffic in India increased a he rae of 7.75% per year during las wo decades from 794 BPKm in o 3536 BPKm in 2-1 and is expeced o increase a he rae of 6.72% per year during he nex wo decades. Land-based raffic volume in is projeced o be nearly 13 BPKm, ou of which, 91.7% will be provided by road and he res by rail. Analysis of modal spli reveals ha he share of public ranspor modes (buses and rains) in providing passenger mobiliy in India will decline from 78.8% in 2-1 o 51.9% in 22-21, whereas share of privae- and para-ransi modes will increase from 21.2% o 48.1% during he same period. The expeced rapid increase in mobiliy and greaer reliance on privae- and para-ransi modes will have huge implicaions for CO 2 emissions from passenger ransporaion in India. In he business as usual scenario (i.e., assuming ha he CO 2 inensiy of all modes remains unchanged), CO 2 emission is projeced o increase from 19.8 o million meric ons of carbon equivalen in a span of wo decades beween 2-1 and In he efficiency gain scenario (i.e., assuming ha he CO 2 inensiy of all modes declines a he rae of 1% per year), he CO 2 emission in is projeced o be million meric ons of carbon equivalen. One should noe ha even in efficiency gain scenario, he level of CO 2 emission from passenger ransporaion in India is expeced o increase a he rae of around 7% per year during he nex wo decades. Apar from CO 2, subsanial amoun of local polluans like carbon monoxide (CO), unburn hydrocarbons (HC), nirogen oxides (NO x ), sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), lead (Pb), and suspended pariculae maers (SPM) are also emied by he passenger ranspor secor. The air polluion problem due o vehicular emission in mos of he meropolian ciies in India is aking serious dimension and worsening people s qualiy of life (Singh, 25). Polluans from vehicular emission have various adverse healh effecs. One of he main polluans SPM, paricularly fine PM, has serious healh effecs, especially in he form of respiraory diseases. The ambien air polluion in erms of SPM in all meropolian ciies in India exceeds he limi se by World Healh Organizaion (WHO). India faces significan challenges in balancing is increased demand for mobiliy wih he need o proec is environmen from furher damage. Populaion growh and urbanizaion make he ask all he more difficul. Rapid increase in vehicle ownership will aggravae he already exising air polluion problem and urbanizaion will increase he healh risks from ha polluion. In he absence of coordinaed governmen effors, including sricer enforcemen, air polluion is likely o coninue o worsen in he coming years. India s abiliy o safeguard is environmen will depend on is success in promoing policies ha keep he economy growing while fulfilling he energy demand in a susainable manner. Noe:- Anoher version of his paper iled as Fuure mobiliy in India: Implicaions for energy demand and CO 2 emission has been published in he Transpor Policy (26; Vol. 13, Issue 5; pp ).

13 References (1) Bewley, R., and Fiebig, D. (1988), Flexible logisic growh model wih applicaions in elecommunicaions, Inernaional Journal of Forecasing, 4(2), (2) CMIE daabase on Energy and Infrasrucure (various issues), Cenre for Monioring Indian Economy (CMIE) Pv. Ld., Mumbai, India. (3) Dargay, J., and Gaely, D. (1999), Income s effec on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: , Transporaion Research Par A, 33(2), (4) Franses, P.H. (22), Tesing for residual auocorrelaion in growh curve models, Technological Forecasing and Social Change, 69(2), (5) Heij C. e al. (24), Economeric Mehods wih Applicaions in Business and Economics, Oxford Universiy Press, New York; pp 29. (6) Inernaional Energy Annual 22, Energy Informaion Adminisraion, Washingon DC, USA. Available on hp:// (7) Marchei, C. (1994), Anhropological invarians in ravel behavior, Technological Forecasing and Social Change, 47(1), (8) Meade, N., and Islam, T. (1998), Technological Forecasing Model Selecion, Model Sabiliy, and Combining Models, Managemen Science, 44(8), (9) Meade, N., and Islam, T. (1995), Forecasing wih growh curves: An empirical comparison, Inernaional Journal of Forecasing, 11(2), (1) Mohamed, Z., and Bodger, P. (25), A comparison of Logisic and Harvey models for elecriciy consumpion in New Zealand, Technological Forecasing and Social Change, Forhcoming issue. (11) Naional Accouns Saisics of India: o 22-3, EPW Research Foundaion, Mumbai, India. (12) Preson, J. (21), Inegraing Transpor wih Socio-economic Aciviy A Research Agenda for he New Millennium, Journal of Transpor Geography, 9(1), (13) Ramanahan, R., and Parikh, J.K. (1999), Transpor Secor in India: An analysis in he conex of susainable developmen, Transpor Policy, 6(1), (14) Ramanahan, R. (1998), Developmen of Indian Passenger Transpor, Energy The Inernaional Journal, 23(5), (15) Schafer, A. (1998), The Global Demand for Moorized Mobiliy, Transpor Research: Par A, 32(6), (16) Schafer, A., and Vicor, D.G. (2), The Fuure Mobiliy of he World Populaion, Transpor Research: Par A, 34(3), (17) Singh, S.K. (25), Review of Urban Transporaion in India, Journal of Public Transporaion, 8(1), (18) Singh, S.K. (2), Esimaing he Level of Rail- and Road-based Passenger Mobiliy in India, Indian Journal of Transpor Managemen, 24(12), (19) TERI Energy Daa Direcory & Yearbook (various issues), TERI, New Delhi, India. (2) World Populaion Prospecs: The 24 Revision Populaion Daabase, Unied Naions Populaion Division, Unied Naions. Available on hp://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=3.

14 APPENDIX: Daa descripions Alhough, annual ime series daa of he level of rail-based passenger mobiliy in India from o 2-1 is readily available (e.g., in Saisical Absrac of India published by he Cenral Saisical Organizaion, Minisry of Saisics and Programme Implemenaion, Governmen of India, New Delhi), similar series for road-based passenger raffic volume is no offered by any source. Therefore, i is decided o esimae he level of road-based passenger raffic from o 2-1 on he basis of services provided by he differen modes. The esimaes are based on he following passenger vehicles: (i) Cars (ii) Two-wheelers (iii) Auo-rickshaws and (iv) Buses. Cars include jeeps and axis as well. Table A1 repors caegory-wise moor vehicle populaion in India for seleced years beween and 2-1. This is based on daa given in he Moor Transpor Saisics published by he Minisry of Road Transpor and Highways, Governmen of India, New Delhi and Saisical Absrac of India published by he Cenral Saisical Organizaion, Minisry of Saisics and Programme Implemenaion, Governmen of India, New Delhi. The raffic mobiliy provided by he differen caegories of vehicles has been compued afer making reasonable assumpions regarding heir average annual uilizaion and average occupancy. These assumpions are based on sudies like Naional Transpor Policy Commiee Repor (198), Planning Commission, New Delhi; Road Developmen Plan (1984), Indian Road Congress, New Delhi; Esimaion of Road Transpor Passenger and Freigh Demand (1986), Sudy Repor of Minisry of Surface Transpor, New Delhi; Repor of Seering Group on Transpor Planning (1987), Planning Commission, New Delhi; and Singh M. and Kadiyali L. R. (199) wrien book on Crisis in Road Transpor published by he Konark Publishers Pv. Ld., New Delhi. Annual uilizaion of cars, wo-wheelers, and auo-rickshaws are assumed o be 126, 63, and 335 Kms respecively. Average occupancy of a car, wo-wheeler, and auo-rickshaw are assumed o be 3.18, 1.5, and 1.76 respecively. Accordingly, he level of passenger mobiliy provided by hese modes has been compued and presened in Table A2. Esimaion of raffic mobiliy provided by he buses requires daa on bus populaion, average annual uilizaion, occupancy raio (raio of number of passengers o he seas offered), and average seaing aciy. These daa are aken from various sources such as Sae Transpor Underakings: Profile and Performance (various issues) published by he Cenral Insiue of Road Transpor, Pune; TERI Energy Daa Direcory & Yearbook (various issues) published by he TERI, New Delhi; and Singh M. and Kadiyali L. R. (199) wrien book on Crisis in Road Transpor published by he Konark Publishers Pv. Ld., New Delhi. Table A3 presens hese daa. Assuming ha he average seaing aciy is 52, he level of passenger mobiliy provided by he buses has been compued and presened in boh Table A2 and A3. Rail-based passenger mobiliy daa is readily available from onwards. Passenger mobiliy daa for rail, road, and land (aggregae of rail and road) for seleced years beween and 2-1 have been repored in Table A4. Table A1. Moor vehicle populaion in housand and is compound annual growh rae in percenage since previous period (in parenheses) Year Cars Two-wheelers Auo-rickshaws Buses Toal passenger vehicles Toal moor vehicles (-) 26.9 (-) 1.7 (-) 34.4 (-) (-) 36.3 (-) (5.) 41. (8.8) 2.5 (8.8) 46.5 (6.2) (5.7) (6.8) (8.8) 88.4 (16.6) 6.2 (19.9) 56.8 (4.1) 461. (9.5) (9.3) (8.) (2.6) 16.1 (2.8) 73.2 (5.2) 77.8 (1.8) (1.6) (8.4) 576. (2.6) 36.7 (17.9) 91.4 (4.5) (12.5) (11.2) (2.7) 157. (12.9) 59.4 (1.1) (4.6) 29.6 (7.7) 272. (7.8) (8.3) (19.9) (19.) (6.2) 474. (15.2) (14.7) (8.9) (19.) (18.9) (8.1) (16.1) (14.4) (1.7) 142. (17.9) (12.9) (7.8) (16.1) (15.1) (7.3) (1.4) 19. (1.3) 449. (6.3) (9.8) (9.6) (1.9) (1.6) (11.3) 56. (4.5) (1.6) (1.2)

15 Table A2. The level of passenger mobiliy provided by differen modes of road ranspor during seleced years (in BPKm) Year Cars Two-wheelers Auo-rickshaws Buses Road ranspor Table A3. Growh of Indian bus indusry; o 2-1 Year Bus populaion Average annual uilizaion (Kms) Occupancy raio (percen) BPKm Table A4. Trends in rail, road, and land-based passenger mobiliy in India Year Rail pass.-km (in billion) CAGR in percenage wr previous period (Rail) Road pass.- km (in billion) CAGR in percenage wr previous period (Road) Land pass.-km (in billion) CAGR in percenage wr previous period (Land)