The Demography of Floodplain in Gloucestershire

Transcription

1 The Demography of Floodplain in Gloucestershire Research Team Chief Executive s Support Unit Gloucestershire County Council December 2007

2 For more information about the report, please contact: Louise Li Senior Research Officer Research Team Gloucestershire County Council Peter Whalley Research Officer Research Team Gloucestershire County Council

3 Table of Contents Executive Summary 4 1. Introduction 8 Background Purpose of Report Content of Report 2. Floodplain Catchments in Gloucestershire. 10 What is a Floodplain Why Analyse 1 in 100 Year Floodplain Floodplain Areas in Gloucestershire Floodplain Areas in Districts 3. Floodplain Population. 19 Population on Floodplain Geographic Distribution of Population on Floodplain Floodplain Population in Districts Local Concentration of Floodplain Population Children and Older Population on Floodplain School and Communal Care Population on Floodplain 4. Socio-Economic Characteristics of Population Clusters on Floodplain.. 29 Population Clusters Socio-Economic Characteristics and Population Hotspots - a Summary 5. Residential Development Commitments on Floodplain.. 33 Introduction Development Commitments on Floodplain in Gloucestershire 6. The Business Community on Floodplain.. 35 Number and Type of Businesses on Floodplain - Gloucestershire Geographic Distribution of Businesses on Floodplain =========================================================== Appendix 1 Appendix 2 Appendix 3 Technical Notes Number and Proportion of Population on Floodplain in Wards Socio-Economic Profile of Population Clusters on Floodplain 3

4 Executive Summary This report aims to establish the size, distribution and characteristics of the population and businesses on the 1 in 100 year floodplain (see Chapter 2 on definitions) in Gloucestershire with a view to anticipating the needs that may arise should a 1 in 100 year flooding event occur. The main purpose of the study is to provide demographic evidence to inform flood response strategies of local authorities and emergency service agencies, in particular the Gloucestershire Flood Warning Planning Group and District Flood Management Groups. The key findings of the study and their implications are summarised as follows: Floodplain Areas and Population 1. The 1 in 100 year floodplain in Gloucestershire covers approximately 270 sq km of area, representing 10% of the total area in the county. 2. An estimated 8,700 homes are currently located on the 1 in 100 year floodplain, with a population of around 20,000. This represents 3.5% of the total population in the county. 3. The majority (94%) of the county s floodplain population are located within the fluvial floodplain. By comparison, the demographic impact of tidal floodplain in the county is far less, which currently accommodates only 6% of the floodplain population. 4. Nearly a third of the county s floodplain population is in Gloucester (6,500 people) despite that the floodplain area in the city accounts for only 3% of the total floodplain area in Gloucestershire. Floodplain Population in Districts No. Homes No. People Cheltenham 1,300 2,900 Cotswold 1,900 4,400 Forest of Dean 700 1,700 Gloucester 1,800 6,500 Stroud 1,200 2,900 Tewkesbury 800 1,800 Gloucestershire 8,700 20, The geographic distribution of population on the floodplain is highly uneven with a population density of 22 people per sq km in the floodplain in the Forest of Dean for instance, rising to 1,500 people per sq km in Cheltenham. The highly concentrated floodplain population in urban areas means that even a flooding that is 4

5 confined in a small locality could affect a large number of homes and population and require large-scale rescue, evacuation and recovery operations. 6. Three of the local council wards have over 1,000 people living within the floodplain catchments; they are Severn ward in Stroud, Barton and Tredworth in Gloucester and Cirencester Park in Cotswold. 7. Our estimates suggest that there are about 1,000 infants and toddlers living in the 1 in 100 year floodplain area across the county whose families would need extra support and assistance during a flood. 8. A further 2,000 elderly people aged 75 or above are also estimated to be currently living within the floodplain catchments. Over half of these (56%) have a disability or long-term illness that might affect their mobility during an evacuation. An estimated 58% are also living alone and may not have immediate access to family support in the event of an emergency. 9. A total of 13 primary schools/nurseries and 15 care and retirement homes are known to be locating on the 1 in 100 year floodplain in the county. A flooding of these buildings will affect on average 200 children in a primary school, 50 infants/toddlers in a preschool or nursery and 25 older people in a care/retirement home. Level of Needs in Local Floodplain Population Hotspots 1. There are a total of 530 postcodes in the county (just over a third of all postcodes in the floodplain) where at least 75% of people live within the 1 in 100 year floodplain catchments. 2. Based on these postcodes, 33 population clusters totalling 12,000 people and their associated socio-economic characteristics are compiled to assess the level of needs in the event of a flood, using age, care needs and economic capacity as criteria. 3. As a result this report identifies the following local floodplain hotspots/clusters as showing a high level of needs in a flood emergency. The support requirements of these communities are likely to extend beyond rescue and into the recovery stage, e.g. health aftercare for the young and elderly and grant aid for lowincome families. These areas can also be specifically targeted for a tailor-made flood guide to provide extra information and guidance. 1) Charlton Kings/Charlton Park in Cheltenham 2) Bourton on the Water in Cotswold 3) Northleach in Cotswold 4) Andoversford in Cotswold 5

6 5) Western sub Edge in Cotswold 6) Lechlade in Coswold 7) Fairford in Cotswold 8) Cirencester North in Cotswold 9) Somerford Keynes in Cotswold 10) Westbury Walmore in Forest of Dean 11) Sedbury in Gloucester 12) Hucclecote in Gloucester 13) Tredworth in Gloucester 14) Abbeydale/Matson in Gloucester 15) Quedgeley in Gloucester 16) Bristol road in Gloucester 17) Elmore Longney in Stroud 18) Arlingham in Stroud 19) Tewkesbury Town in Tewkesbury Development Commitments on Floodplain 1. Many more homes could be built on the county s floodplain over the next 5 years as a total of 103 floodplain developments have been granted permission (committed) to build. This could bring in an additional 1,460 dwellings and a further population of 3,400 into the floodplain. 2. The largest numbers of dwelling commitments are in Gloucester, Cheltenham and Stroud. Businesses on Floodplain 1. Just under 1,000 business units are located within the county s 1 in 100 year floodplain, representing around 4% of all businesses in Gloucestershire. The total number of employees affected is estimated to be around 19, Any flooding will almost certainly affect more micro businesses (with less than 10 employees) than larger companies as they account for 64% of all companies at risk. 3. The majority of businesses at risk are small retailers, wholesalers and small companies in real estates, financial and other business activity sectors. 4. The geographic distribution of businesses at flood risk is broadly consistent with the distribution of population on floodplain, suggesting that flooding in an area is likely to have dual residential and commercial impact. 5. There is a high concentration of businesses at risk in two wards; College ward and Lansdown ward in Cheltenham. Other council wards that also have a significant number of businesses at risk are 6

7 Podsmead and Westgate in Gloucester, Rodborough and Severn in Stroud and Swindon Village in Cheltenham. 7

8 1. Introduction Background 1.1 Flood risk is identified in an Environment Agency report 1 as one of the most critical environmental issues facing the South West region. Floods are predicted not only to continue to happen but to worsen across the region due to climate change, current and future spatial planning and development, and changes in agricultural practices. 1.2 Projected higher flood risks in the future means that an increasing number of people and businesses will be locating within a flood zone. 1.3 Currently around 100,000 properties in the region are estimated to be at risk from the most serious floods (1 in 100 year flood) and the Environment Agency report identifies Gloucester, along with eight other towns/cities in the region 2, as at particular risk. 1.4 The Environment Agency is the lead organisation on flood defence. Local Authorities are however required to work together with the Environment Agency and the emergency services to protect people and property through pre-planned emergency response arrangement. Lead responsibilities for emergency response and recovery planning rest with the Local Authorities 3. Purpose of Report 1.5 This report aims to establish the size and characteristics of the population and business community currently locating on the county s 1 in 100 year floodplain, with an aim to anticipating the needs that may arise should a 1 in 100 year flooding event occur. 1.6 The main purpose of the report is to provide demographic evidence to inform pre-planned flood response strategies across County and District Councils and emergency services agencies in the county, in particular the Gloucestershire Flood Warning Planning Group and District Flood Management Groups. Content of Report 1.7 This report consists of the following main themes of analysis: 1 The State of the Environment in the South West 2006, Environment Agency 2 The other eight towns/cities are Weston-super-Mare, Bridgewater, the Somerset Levels & Moors, Bristol, Taunton, Exeter, Christchurch and Truro. 3 Major Flooding Emergency Plan, Emergency Management Service, Gloucestershire County Council, February

9 1) To identify the 1 in 100 year floodplain catchment areas in Gloucestershire and provide an estimate of the size and geographic distribution of population on the floodplain at county, district and local level 2) To compile a basic age structure of the population living within the catchments to identify the number of children and older people. This includes an estimate of the size of pupil population and the number of communal care residents who are at risk 3) To identify clusters of population living in the 1 in 100 year floodplain and construct a socio-economic profile of these populations. This is to identify floodplain population hotspots and establish the level of needs in the event of a flood 4) To assess the scale of residential development commitments on the county s floodplain in the next few years 5) To estimate the number of local businesses at flood risk in Gloucestershire. This is followed by an analysis of type of trade and business size to understand emerging needs in case of a flood 9

10 2. Floodplain Catchments in Gloucestershire What is a Floodplain 2.1 A floodplain is the area that would naturally be affected by flooding if a river rises above its banks, or high tides and stormy seas cause flooding in coastal areas There are two types of floodplains in Gloucestershire - river (fluvial) floodplains and coastal (tidal) floodplain. 2.3 River floodplains are land adjoining river channels that have a limited capacity for water and when this is exceeded, flooding occurs. The floodplains then act to convey and store this water. 2.4 Coastal floodplains are areas of low-lying land along the coast that can be flooded by the sea. They act as a buffer to help protect the coastal hinterland from tidal flooding. Tidal floodplains in estuaries can be flooded from either raised sea levels or floodwater from rivers, or a combination of both. Why Analyse 1 in 100 Year Floodplain 2.5 This report focuses on the demographic analysis of the population living within the catchments of the 1 in 100 year floodplain. 2.6 The 1 in 100 year floodplains are the flood risk areas identified by the Environment Agency that could be flooded from a river that has a 1% (1 in 100) or greater chance of happening each year, or from the sea that has a 0.5% (1 in 200) or greater chance of happening each year, if there were no flood defences. 2.7 An understanding of the size, geographic distribution and demographic characteristics of the population living in the 1 in 100 year floodplain area is important as these are the areas where most of the Environment Agency s flood defence schemes are built to protect against flood risk. 2.8 Planning Policy Statement 25: Development & Flood Risk (2006) also identifies areas with a 1 in 100 year or greater flood risk as being High Probability zones, where specific planning policies should apply, and where development should proceed only following a Flood Risk Assessment. 4 Source: Environment Agency 10

11 Floodplain Areas in Gloucestershire 2.9 The 1 in 100 year floodplain in Gloucestershire cover approximately 270 sq km of area in the county. This represents 10% of the total area of Gloucestershire Whilst fluvial (river) floodplain in the county are susceptible to flood risks following a substantial amount of rainfall (as seen in the recent July floods in Gloucestershire), it is believed that climate change would pose a longer term flood threat to local tidal (coastal) floodplains as sea level rises About 58% of floodplain in Gloucestershire is fluvial floodplain (157 sq. km) and the remaining 42% of the county s floodplain is tidal (115 sq. km), as illustrated in the map below. Figure

12 Floodplain Areas in Districts Overview 2.12 Of all districts, the Forest of Dean and Stroud have the largest floodplain in the county covering about 75 sq km respectively, together accounting for half of the total floodplain areas in the county. The majority of floodplains in the Forest and Stroud are of tidal type Cotswold and Cheltenham are the only two districts where floodplains are entirely fluvial While the identified 1 in 100 year floodplains in Cheltenham and Gloucester are the smallest in the county (1.9 and 9 sq. km respectively), both districts have a large population living within floodplain catchments due to the concentration of large population in these two districts (Chapter 3 Floodplain Population). Figure 2.2 1/100 Years Flood Plain Area sq. km Tidal Fluvial Cheltenham Cotswold Forest Gloucester Stroud Tewkesbury Table 2.1: 1/100 Year FloodPlain Areas (sq. km) Fluvial Floodplain Tidal Floodplain All Floodplain Sq km % Sq km % Sq km % Cheltenham Cotswold Forest Gloucester Stroud Tewkesbury Gloucestershire

13 Floodplain in Cheltenham: Total 1/100 years floodplain area 1.9 sq km Fluvial 1.9 sq km Tidal -- Environment Agency Flood Warning Areas 5 No specific warning areas Major watercourses River Chelt Southfield Brook Hatherley Brook Mill Stream Noverton Brook Wymans Brook Figure Flood Response Plan, Cheltenham Borough Council Annex 1, January

14 Floodplain in Cotswold: Total 1/100 years floodplain area 50.8 sq km Fluvial 50.8 sq km Tidal -- Environment Agency Flood Warning River Churn Areas 6 Amney Brook River Coln River Leach Upper Windrush Upper Evenlode River Thames (Somerford Keynes to Lechlade) River Thames (Lechlade to Eynsham Lock) Figure Flood Response Plan, Cotswold District Council, October

15 Floodplain in Forest of Dean: Total 1/100 years floodplain area Fluvial Tidal 76.1 sq km 22.3 sq km 53.8 sq km Environment Agency Flood Warning River Wye in Lydbrook Areas 7 Lower Wye and River Wye in Tintern River Wye in Chepstow Severn Estuary between Gloucester and Westbury Severn Estuary between Westbury and Aust Figure Flood Response Plan Annex 3, Forest of Dean District Council, November

16 Floodplains in Gloucester: Total 1/100 years floodplain area Fluvial Tidal 9.0 sq km 3.6 sq km 5.4 sq km Environment Agency Flood Warning Tidal Severn Areas 8 Fluvial Severn Figure Flood Response Plan Annex 4, Gloucester City Council, November

17 Floodplain in Stroud: Total 1/100 years floodplain area Fluvial Tidal 75.9 sq km 28.3 sq km 47.6 sq km Environment Agency Flood Warning Tidal Severn at Gloucester Areas 9 Severn Estuary between Gloucester and Westbury Severn Estuary between Westbury and Aust Severn Estuary between Aust and Avonmouth, including Severn Beach Figure Flood Response Plan, Stroud District Council, October

18 Floodplain in Tewkesbury: Total 1/100 years floodplain area Fluvial Tidal 57.4 sq km 49.7 sq km 7.7 sq km Environment Agency Flood Warning River Severn at Gloucester (Fluvial) Areas 10 River Severn at Gloucester (Tidal) Severn Estuary between Gloucester and Westbury (Tidal) Figure Flood Response Plan Annex 6, Tewkesbury Borough Council, October

19 3. Floodplain Population Population on Floodplain 3.1 The number of people living in the county s 1 in 100 year floodplain is estimated in this report by mapping known residential addresses to the identified floodplain catchment areas 11, and an estimated population size is then derived It is estimated that approximately 8,700 homes are currently situated in the 1 in 100 year floodplain in Gloucestershire, housing around 20,000 people. This is equivalent to 3.5% of all population in the county. 3.3 The big majority of these homes (8,200 homes) are locating on fluvial floodplain, affecting a population of 19,000. By comparison, the demographic impact of tidal floodplain in the county is far less, which currently accommodates only around 400 homes and 1,000 people. Table 3.1: 1/100 Years FloodPlain Population Fluvial and Tidal Fluvial Tidal Total Estimated Number of Homes Estimated Population Estimated Number of Homes Estimated Population Estimated Number of Homes Estimated Population 8,200 19, ,100 8,700 20,200 Gloucestershire 11 The number of homes is estimated by comparing the number of all addresses identified on floodplains (9,932 addresses) (see Appendix 1 Technical Notes) with the number of non-residential addresses identified from the Community Facilities Survey database (1,254 addresses) of Research Team, Gloucestershire County Council. 12 Total population on floodplain in Gloucestershire is the sum of population estimated for each district, applying district s average household size to the number of homes on floodplain for the district. Average household size is derived from the ONS Mid-2006 Population Estimates and the DCLG Household Projections. 19

20 Geographic Distribution of Population on Floodplain 3.4 In the more rural parts of the county, many floodplain areas are agricultural lands and have a very small presence of population. This is in contrast with more urban areas where a much higher proportion of floodplains are populated with housing. 3.5 As a result, across the county and within a district, the number of homes and associated population on floodplains are not in proportion to the size of local floodplain areas. 3.6 Table 3.2 and Figure 3.1 illustrate the uneven distribution of population on floodplains. The population density on floodplains in Cheltenham, for instance, is 1,530 people per sq. km while in Forest of Dean, 22 per sq km. 3.7 The highly concentrated floodplain population in urban areas means that even a flooding that is confined in a small locality could affect a large number of homes and population and require large-scale rescue, evacuation and recovery operations. TABLE 3.2: POPULATION DENSITY ON FLOODPLAIN, BY DISTRICT Floodplain Area (sq No. People on km) Floodplain Population Density on Floodplain (people/sq km) Cheltenham 1.9 2,900 1,526 Cotswold , Forest of Dean , Gloucester 9.0 6, Stroud , Tewkesbury ,

21 Figure

22 Floodplain Population in Districts Of all districts, Gloucester has the single largest number of homes and population at flood risk (2,800 homes and 6,500 people). It accounts for nearly 33% of the total floodplain population in the county despite the fact that its floodplain areas, at 9 sq km, represent only 3% of the total floodplain areas in the county. 3.9 Cotswold has the second largest floodplain population (4,400 people) in the county, followed by Stroud and Cheltenham (2,900 people each). Figure 3.2 7,000 1/100 Years Floodplain Population in Districts 6,000 5,000 no. 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Cheltenham Cotswold Forest Gloucester Stroud Tewkesbury Estimated no. Homes on Floodplain Estimated Floodplain Populaiton Table 3.3.: 1/100 Years Floodplain population by District Estimated Number of Homes on Estimated Floodplain Population Floodplain No. % No. % Cheltenham 1, , Cotswold 1, , Forest , Gloucester 2, , Stroud 1, , Tewkesbury , Gloucestershire 8, , Population on floodplain in districts is estimated by applying district s average household size to the number of homes on floodplain for the district. Average household size is derived from the ONS Mid Population Estimates and the DCLG Household Projections. 22

23 Local Concentration of Floodplain Population 3.10 Mapping results show that at a local level, three council wards in the county have a substantial number of people living on floodplain: the Severn ward in Stroud (1,700 people), the Barton and Tredworth ward in Gloucester (1,150) and Cirencester Park in Cotswold (1,100). In both Severn ward and Cirencester Park, the numbers of people living within the floodplain catchments represent a third of the ward population There are a further 11 council wards where at least 500 people are living on the 1 in 100 year floodplain. They are College, Westgate, Coombe Hill, Cirencester Watermoor, Hucclecote, Elmbridge, Water Park, Abbey, Barnwood, Grange and Charlton Park 14. Figure See Appendix 2 for detailed estimates of the number and proportion of people living within the 1 in 100 years floodplain for each ward in the county. 23

24 Figure 3.4 Population on 1 in 100 Years Floodplain Top 25 Wards 1,800 no. people 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Severn Barton And Tredworth Cirencester Park College Westgate Coombe Hill Cirencester Watermoor Hucclecote Elmbridge Water Park Abbey Barnwood Grange Charlton Park Longlevens Moreland Tidenham St Peter's Kempsford-Lechlade Fairford Matson And Robinswood Lansdown Newnham And Westbury Swindon Village Campden-Vale 24

25 Children and Older Population on Floodplain General Age Profile 3.12 In the absence of other accessible data, the age structure of the county s population living within the 1 in 100 year floodplain is estimated by the overall age distribution of the population in the county 15. The resultant age profile is to serve as a guide to highlight the possible number of people in need of special measures in the event of a flood because of their age The following chart shows the approximated age structure of the population on floodplain, assuming that the age distribution of this population is broadly similar to that of the wider population in the county. Figure 3.5 1/100 Years Floodplain Population in Gloucestershire - Age Profile aged under 5 5% aged 5-9 6% aged % aged 75+ 9% aged % aged % Children and Older People 3.14 Children and older people are identified in the county and districts flood response plan as two vulnerable groups of residents who may require special help in the event of a flood rescue The numbers of children and older people living within the 1 in 100 years floodplain catchments in the county and districts are estimated by using the approximated age profile 16 as described above. 15 The age distribution is obtained from the ONS Mid-2006 Population Estimates. 16 Age distribution by district is obtained from the ONS Mid-2006 Population Estimates to estimate the number of children and older people on floodplain in each district. 25

26 3.16 Altogether around 4,800 children (0-15 year-olds) and 3,700 older people (aged 65+) are estimated to be currently living in the county s 1 in 100 year floodplain areas About 1,000 of the children are infants and toddlers whose families would need extra support and assistance during a flood It is estimated that 2,000 of the older people are elderly aged 75 or above. Of particular importance perhaps is the numbers who live on their own or with disabilities. Our estimates suggest that 58% 17 of these elderly people are currently living on their own who may not have immediate access to family support in the event of a flood. An estimated 56% 18 also have a disability or limiting illness, who would require special facilities and assistance during and after a flood. Table 3.4: Estimated Floodplain Population Selected Age Groups Total Floodplain population Aged under 5 Aged 5-9 Aged Aged Aged 75+ Cheltenham 2, Cotswold 4, Forest 1, Gloucester 6, Stroud 2, Tewkesbury 1, Gloucestershire 20,200 1,100 2,300 1,400 1,800 1,900 School and Communal Care Population on Floodplain 3.19 The number of schools and care and retirement homes that are located on the 1 in 100 year floodplain in Gloucestershire are identified to provide additional data on the number of pupils and people in care/retirement homes who will be affected in the event of flooding of the buildings. This information is important as flooding of any of these buildings could result in an evacuation of two of the most vulnerable groups of the population in the county; children and elderly people (many are infirmed) A total of 13 schools and 15 care and retirement homes in Gloucestershire are found to locate 19 on floodplain (see maps and tables over the next page) in the county All 13 schools are either primary schools (7 of them) or preschools/nurseries (6), representing a total of 1,700 pupils of whom all 17 HouseGroup Forecasting, Research Team, Gloucestershire County Council 18 Estimated from the Census Source: Community Facilities Survey database, Research Team, Gloucestershire County Council 26

27 are under the age of 11. A flooding of these schools will affect on average 200 children in a primary school and 50 infants/toddlers in a preschool or nursery The total number of people (mostly elderly) accommodated in the 15 care/retirement homes is estimated to be around 300 and a flooding will affect on average 25 elderly people per home. Figure 3.6 Table 3.5: Schools on 1/100 Years Floodplain District Parish Post Code Type Cheltenham Lansdown GL50 1JS Day Nursery Cheltenham Avening GL53 7PX Day Nursery Cotswold All Saints GL8 8NF Primary School Cotswold Cirencester GL7 2DJ Primary School Cotswold Moreton-in- GL56 0LQ Primary School Marsh Cotswold Chipping GL55 6LD Day Nursery Campden Cotswold Cirencester GL7 1BW Pre School Playgroup Gloucester Barton GL1 4NY Early Years Centre Gloucester Hucclecote GL3 3RT Pre School Playgroup Gloucester Westgate GL1 5BD Primary School Forest of Dean Newland NP5 4LY Primary School Stroud Kingswood GL12 8SP Day Nursery Stroud Longney GL2 6SL Primary School 27

28 Figure 3.7 Table 3.6: Communal Care Establishments on 1/100 Years Floodplain District Ward Post Code Type Cheltenham Lansdown GL50 3DT Sheltered Accommodation Cheltenham Charlton Park GL53 7QH Sheltered Accommodation Cheltenham Charlton Park GL53 7QH Sheltered Accommodation Gloucester Barton and Tredworth GL1 4UR Sheltered Accommodation Gloucester Westgate GL1 2QX Hostel Gloucester Abbey GL4 9FD Sheltered Accommodation Forest Awre GL15 4EB Sheltered Accommodation Stroud Severn GL2 7HE Sheltered Accommodation Cotswold Fairford GL7 4AH Nursing Home Cotswold Cirencester GL7 1EZ Sheltered Cotswold Watermoor Cirencester Watermoor GL7 1PB Accommodation Sheltered Accommodation Cotswold Cirencester Park GL7 2DL Sheltered Accommodation Cotswold Cirencester Park GL7 2EN Nursing Home Tewkesbury Highnam with Haw Bridge GL2 8JJ Residential and Retirement Home Tewkesbury Coombe Hill Ward GL19 4BS Residential and Retirement Home 28

29 4. Socio-Economic Characteristics of Population Clusters on Floodplain Population Clusters 4.1 This chapter identifies local clusters of communities where the majority of homes, and hence population, locate within the 1 in 100 years floodplain. The aim is, by using a range of available data, to establish the socio-economic characteristics of these clusters and hence identify floodplain population hotspots and the level of needs in the event of a flood. 4.2 In view of the nature of the available data, clusters are identified in two steps; by postcodes and then by geographic proximity. 4.3 A postcode is selected if at least 75% of homes within the postcode are locating on the 1 in 100 years floodplain catchments. A total of 530 postcodes are identified as a result of this process, representing more than a third of all postcodes in the floodplain. 4.4 Individual postcodes are then grouped with adjacent postcodes to form a cluster, using population and community/ward as a guide. Isolated postcodes with very small population are not included in the cluster analysis to avoid possible identification of individuals details. 4.5 A total of 33 clusters of population are subsequently established, covering a total population of 12,000, of these at least 75% live within the 1 in 100 years floodplains. 4.6 A range of data sources 20 is then collated to establish the socioeconomic characteristics of these population clusters, with an aim to identifying hotspots and anticipating emerging needs. 4.7 The focus is to highlight the hotspots in the floodplain where a disproportionate number of vulnerable people or household exists, so that special measures could be taken during, for instance, rescue, evacuation and recovery in the event of a flood in these areas. 20 These include the Exeter database (GP Register), community and adult care records, CACI Household Income data and Maiden matrices 29

30 Socio-Economic Characteristics and Population Hotspots - a Summary 4.8 Three sources of data are used to inform the demographic analysis of the clusters, they are 1) the Exeter database (or GP register) which provide data on the number and age of residents. 2) the social care monitoring records which provide data on the number of people with care needs (due to learning, mental or physical disabilities) 3) the CACI household income data which provide family income data 4.9 All data, which are recorded at postcode level, are aggregated to cluster level and analysed. This provides an overall picture of the level of needs in each cluster and hence identifies the population hotspots on floodplain Needs are established if there is a disproportionately 21 large number of young children (CH), old people (OP) or people with social care needs (CN) in the cluster, or if the average family income in the cluster is at least 10% below the district average (IN) As a result, the following local floodplain hotspots/clusters are identified as showing a high level of needs among residents if an emergency of flood occurs. It is considered that the support requirements of these communities are likely to extend beyond rescue and into the recovery stage, e.g. health aftercare for the young and elderly and grant aid for low income families. These areas can also be specifically targeted for a tailor-made flood guide to provide extra information and guidance. 1) Charlton Kings/Charlton Park in Cheltenham (OP) 2) Bourton on the Water in Cotswold (OP, IN) 3) Northleach in Cotswold (OP, CN) 4) Andoversford in Cotswold (IN) 5) Western sub Edge in Cotswold (CH) 6) Lechlade in Cotswold (OP) 7) Fairford in Cotswold (OP) 8) Cirencester North in Cotswold (OP) 9) Somerford Keynes in Cotswold (CH) 10) Westbury Walmore in Forest of Dean (OP, CN) 11) Sedbury in Gloucester (OP, IN) 12) Hucclecote in Gloucester (OP) 13) Tredworth in Gloucester (CH) 14) Abbeydale/Matson in Gloucester (IN) 15) Quedgeley in Gloucester (CH, OP) 16) Bristol road in Gloucester (CH) 17) Elmore Longney in Stroud (IN) 21 If the proportions are higher than 15% for children, 30% for the 65 plus and 20% for people with care needs 30

31 18) Arlingham in Stroud (IN) 19) Tewkesbury Town in Tewkesbury (OP, IN) 4.12 Table 4.1 overleaf summarises the socio-economic characteristics of the 33 clusters as described. Details of individual cluster s location, postcodes and profile are available in Appendix 3. 31

32 District TABLE 4.1: SUMMARY SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF POPULATION CLUSTERS ON FLOODPLAIN Population Cluster on 1 in 100 Year Floodplain Total Populatio n in Cluster No. Children aged under 10 No. Older people aged 65 plus No. People with social care needs Average Household Income Cheltenham (1) Charlton Kings / ,549 Charlton Park (2) College / Sandford ,792 (3) Lansdown < 5 33,253 (4) St Peters < 5 33,168 (5) Swindon Village < 5 38,672 Cotswold (1) Bourton on the 108 < 5 47 < 5 23,800 Water (2) Northleach ,893 (3) Andoversford < 5 29,356 Forest of Dean (4) Weston sub Edge ,250 (5) Lechlade < 5 36,138 (6) Fairford ,386 (7) Cirencester North ,741 (8) Cirencester ,869 Siddington (9) Somerford Keynes ,031 (1) Westbury ,844 Walmore (2) Cinderford < 5 31,751 Blakeney (3) Parkend Lydney < 5 30,114 (4) Wye Valley < 5 36,232 Redbrook (5) Sedbury < 5 21,380 Gloucester (1) Hucclecote ,468 (2) Longlevens / 1, ,157 Elmbridge (3) Abbeydale / ,836 Matson (4) Tredworth 1, ,190 (5) Quedgeley < 5 28,104 (6) Sandhurst / ,878 Longford / Isle of Alney (7) Bristol Road < 5 27,182 Stroud (1) Stroud and < 5 34,560 Valleys (2) Berkeley Vale < 5 29,737 Cambridge (3) Elmore Longney < 5 27,120 (4) Frampton Saul 1, ,250 (5) Arlingham < Tewkesbury (1) Hawbridge < 5 34,607 Apperley (2) Tewkesbury town ,088 Note: Cells highlighted in Red indicate a disproportionately large number of children, older people or people with social care needs in the cluster. With household income, Red indicates at least10% below the district average, Amber within +/-10% of average, Green at least 10% above average 32

33 5. Residential Development Commitments on Floodplain Introduction 5.1 The increased demand for housing due to demographic pressure has resulted in an increased number of developments in flood risk areas across the region. The Environment Agency reported that in some areas in the South West, the rate of development has more than doubled in the past 50 years. 5.2 The effect of development on flood risk occurs when a poorly designed development reduces the space available to store floodwater. This would increase the flood risk not just to the development itself but also to surrounding areas. Further risk will also happen if the development did not incorporate a river management system According to Planning Policy Statement 25: Development & Flood Risk (2006), local floodplain areas with a 1 in 100 years or greater flood risk are High Probability zones, where specific planning policies would apply. Development in these areas should proceed only following a Flood Risk Assessment. 5.4 Across the region, 92% of planning applications in the floodplain objected to by the Environment Agency in 2004/2005 went on to incorporate Environment Agency advice and 8% of planning applications across the region were approved contrary to the advice of the Environment Agency. 23 Development Commitments on Floodplain in Gloucestershire 5.5 A total of 103 floodplain developments in Gloucestershire have been granted permission (committed) to build, as at This could bring in an additional 1,460 dwellings and a further population of 3,400 into the floodplain over the next few years. 5.6 The scale of developments will be unprecedented with 2 sites having permission to build more than 100 homes and 1 site more than The largest numbers of dwelling commitments are in Gloucester (694 dwellings), Cheltenham (361) and Stroud (229). 22 State of the Environment in the South West 2006, Environment Agency 23 State of the Environment in the South West 2006, Environment Agency 33

34 Table 5.1: Outstanding Commitments on 1/100 Years FloodPlain As at 2006 Outstanding Development Total No. No. Large Development (100+ properties) Outstanding Dwellings Total No. Cheltenham Cotswold Forest Gloucester Stroud Tewkesbury Gloucestershire ,457 Figure

35 6. The Business Community on Floodplain Number and Type of Businesses on Floodplain - Gloucestershire 6.1 Just under 1,000 business units 24 are identified to be located within the county s 1 in 100 year floodplain, representing around 4% of all businesses in Gloucestershire. The total number of employees affected is estimated to be around 19, Any flooding will almost certainly affect more micro businesses (with less than 10 employees) than larger companies as micro companies account for 64% of all businesses at risk. By contrast, large employers with more than 100 employees on site only account for 4% (38 businesses) of all businesses on floodplain. 6.3 The main business sectors on floodplain are wholesale and retail trade and real estate, renting and other business activities, accounting for nearly half of all business on floodplain. 6.4 Table 6.1 provides a listing of the main types of businesses on floodplain in the county. The majority of them are small retailers, wholesalers, and small companies in real estates, financial and other business activity sectors. Figure 6.1 Businesses on 1 in 100 Year Floodplain in Gloucestershire by Employment Size No. businesses less than employees employees employees 100+ employees employees 24 The number is derived form mapping floodplain Business area with Size business data based on IDBR data ONS Crown Copyright Reserved and Business Link data 35

36 Figure Businesses on 1 in 100 Year Floodplain by Industrial Sector Manufacturing and other Construction Wholesale and retail trade Hotels and restuarants Transport, storage and communications Financial intermediation Real estate, renting and business activities % Businesses Public administation, Education and Health Other community, social and personal service activities Manufacturing and other: Other industries include agriculture, gas, electricity and water industries. TABLE 6.1: MAIN BUSINESSES ON 1 IN 100 YEAR FLOODPLAIN BY SECTOR AND SIZE Sector and Size 25 Number of Businesses on Floodplain Small retailers / wholesalers 245 Small financial intermediation, real estates and other 208 business activities Small manufacturers 106 Small construction companies 82 Small organisations in education, health and social work 53 Small hotels and restaurants 52 Small organisations in other community, social and person 45 service activities 25 Company size referred to: small: less than 25 employees, medium-sized: employees, large: 100+ employees 36

37 Geographic Distribution of Businesses on Floodplain 6.5 Figure 6.3 below illustrates the geographic distribution of businesses that are at flood risk in the county. It can be seen that the spread is broadly consistent with the distribution of population on floodplain (see Figure 3.1), suggesting that flooding in an area is likely to have dual residential and commercial impact. Figure The largest numbers of businesses at flood risk are located in Cheltenham (34%), Stroud (23%) and Gloucester (21%). The dominance of small companies on floodplain can be seen across districts with the exception of Forest of Dean. While the Forest has one of the fewest companies at flood risk in the county, 30% of these are larger employers with at least 25 employees on site, twice the rate of the county average (15.8%). 6.7 At a more local level, there is a high concentration of businesses at risk in two of the council wards in the county; College ward and Lansdown ward in Cheltenham. Figure 6.6 illustrates the concentration of businesses that are at flood risk at ward level. 37

38 6.8 Other council wards that also have a significant number of businesses at risk are Podsmead and Westgate in Gloucester, Rodborough and Severn in Stroud and Swindon Village in Cheltenham. Figure 6.4 Number of Businesses on 1 in 100 year Floodplain by District no. businesses Cheltenham Cotsw old Forest of Dean Gloucester Stroud Tew kesbury Figure 6.5 Businesses on 1 in 100 Year Floodplain by District and Business Size 100% 90% 80% % % businesses 60% 50% 40% % 20% 100+ employees employees 10% Less than 25 employees 0% Cheltenham Cotsw old Forest Gloucester Stroud Tew kesbury 38

39 Figure

40 Appendices 40