Pupil Projections for North Somerset Schools

Transcription

1 Pupil Projections for North Somerset Schools DRAFT FOR CONSULTATION North Somerset Council Children & Young People s Services Town Hall Walliscote Grove Road Weston-super-Mare BS23 1UJ

2 Introduction The Local Authority is required to produce pupil forecasting statistics to inform the strategic planning of school places. The methodology for compiling these predictions is described below but we are always happy to take account of local knowledge and anecdotal information received from consultees. Pupil Projections Methodology and Assumptions The model for calculating estimated pupil projections has been continually developed over recent years. The main reason for introducing refinements to the model has been to account for pupil yield arising from new housing developments. New developments have resulted in significant growth in the area since the Council formed in The main features of the methodology and assumptions employed to calculate the enclosed pupil projections are as follows: 1. Full time reception entry pupils for September 2012 the projected intake to infant/primary schools is based on the number of applications already received for each school. The projected intake for other years is based on Avon Health Authority data that gives us figures for the number of pre-school children in each postcode area. Pupils are then assigned to schools by looking at numbers historically opting for each school from postcode addresses. Where projected numbers are greater than the published admission number limit for a school, pupils are assumed to reallocate to other schools within the cluster (also known as a group), having spare capacity. 2. Existing pupil numbers in primary and secondary schools moving to next year group movement from one year to the next is calculated for each school. A factor based on the gains and losses in each year group during the previous year is applied for junior school intakes and secondary schools, including 6th Form stay on rates. 3. Out of area movement into individual schools this is based on two year historic trends. 4. Demand from new housing units this is established using the North Somerset Residential Land Survey. Schools affected are determined geographically, and the potential intake is again determined by looking at past trends. Previously, one pupil yield ratio for primary pupils and one ratio for secondary pupils were applied to all dwellings in a development. These projections use a pupil ratio per individual dwelling type to project the number of pupils expected to move into new residential developments. Dwelling characteristics are whether the dwelling is a flat or house, how many bedrooms it has and whether it is an affordable or market property. Children under school age who may move into a development and be of an age to require a school place within the five year lifetime of these projections are also accounted for in the estimated Reception Year (YR) pupils from new development figures. Estimates of the proportions of potential YR pupils moving into a new development from outside or within North Somerset are also used to refine the predictions of additional YR pupils. It should be stressed that the development 2

3 completion schedule is the best estimate at the time the projections were compiled, and the actual rate that new developments are completed and occupied is closely linked to the economic climate and may therefore vary significantly from that expected. 5. Junior school and secondary school intake apportionment to receiving school is based on the number of pupils moving from one school to another during the previous year. 6. Denominational school intake this is also based on historical ratios as above. It should be stressed that the projections are only indicative. For instance, where a projection for a school exceeds the capacity of that school, the projection does not imply that the school will be required to admit additional pupils. Following consultation on the projections last year, the following minor changes to how the projections are presented have been made: Tickenham school has been moved from the Clevedon cluster to the Nailsea cluster. In addition to the Roman Catholic school cluster, for reference, each of the three Roman Catholic schools is now shown below the geographical cluster in which it is located, but their pupil numbers are not included in the cluster group numbers to avoid double counting. The projections presented the projected number of any shortfall of reception class places (YR) for each cluster. The projections showed the cumulative total of YR pupils as they move through the school years who were not specifically allocated to a school within a cluster, as well as the projected shortfall per cluster per year. Following detailed analysis of pupil trends in new developments, it is now possible in the projections to show a projected number of YR pupils from new developments by cluster. The projected number of Year 1 to 6 pupils from new developments per cluster is also shown (rather than allocating them to a particular school s total, which is how the figures were presented previously). The Year 1-6 figures include factoring-in the previous year s YR pupils becoming Year 1 pupils, and the Year 6 pupils transferring to secondary school each year. In addition to the above refinements, a new table is provided after the primary school projections to show the projected YR demand by cluster for each year, as well as the number of YR pupils predicted from new developments. The Planned Admission Number (PAN) for each cluster is also given. This table can be found on page 15 and is particularly useful in identifying areas where pressure is predicted to occur based on current PANs. Secondary school projections are on page 16. 3

4 Net Capacity and school places A school s net capacity (i.e. the number of pupils it can accommodate) is calculated using a Department for Education template which is intended to provide a single, robust and consistent method of assessing the capacity of schools. Where additional temporary accommodation has been provided in some schools to meet demand, or where schools are in the process of change, the additional capacity created may not be reflected in the Net Capacity Assessment figure if an updated assessment has not yet been carried out. Although a school might have a net capacity of a certain number, it is not uncommon for schools to be organised in such a way that it is able to admit additional pupils. For instance, it is organisationally better for a school with a Net Capacity Assessment of 396 pupils to be organised to admit up to 420 pupils thus resulting in 14 class bases of 30 pupils per class base. This organisational figure is termed the number of school places. The predicted empty places per school in these projections are based on the number of school places. Strategies to address increased demand The process of compiling the projections has revealed potential need to accommodate rising numbers of reception aged children, in common with many other local authorities across the country. Actions being taken to address such affected clusters are described below. The two main areas where demand is anticipated to exceed current capacity are Portishead and Weston-super-Mare. 1. Portishead Many additional places have already been provided in Portishead in response to pupil demand: Portishead Primary School was relocated in 2003 and enlarged from 315 places to 420 places; St Peter s C of E Primary School expanded from a 315 to a 420-place school in September 2005; High Down Infant increased in size from 225 to 270 places in September 2005; and Trinity Anglican Methodist Primary School opened as a 210-place school in September 2008 and was enlarged to become a 420 place primary school from September In addition, both Portishead Primary School and St Peter s C of E Primary School accepted additional pupils in September Despite all of these changes, it became apparent that the number of YR applications for September 2012 in Portishead was likely to exceed the number of places available and in this respect arrangements are currently being made for additional YR places to be established in High Down Infant School. Demand for new school places in the town of Portishead continues to exceed supply. Despite the increase of 675 extra primary places since 2005 (less 105 places following the closure of St Barnabas C of E Primary School in August 2009), applications for places in younger year groups continues to exceed the numbers of places available within the town. An extra 822 homes are due to be delivered 4

5 by 2016 creating a possible need for around 165 new school places (primary and secondary). Whilst currently surplus primary school places in Portishead are within agreed tolerances (at 6% overall), the need for new places (especially in younger age groups) continues. As a result, officers are currently seeking the support of the CYPS Policy and Scrutiny Panel to the commencement and progression of the necessary statutory process to create two 420-place primary schools on the High Down Infant and Junior School sites, thereby increasing provision across the town in all year groups by a further 210 places overall. If agreed, this change will be made in time for the September 2013 school admission round with each school admitting up to 60 YR pupils. 2. Weston-super-Mare To support extra demand for school places in and around the Worle area and prevent children having to attend schools outside of Weston-super-Mare, the local authority has made changes at Hillside First, Mendip Green First and St Martins C of E Junior Schools to enable them to operate as all-through primary schools and to become schools with capacities of 210, 630 and 630 pupils respectively. This has resulted in 315 permanent additional places (30 at Hillside, 150 at Mendip Green and 135 at St Martins). The Pupil projections show that by 2016 the Weston-super-Mare North cluster of schools will share a deficit of 334 primary places and the Weston super-mare South schools a deficit of 171 primary places. The deficit of places is not however shared across all age ranges. Projections for new reception aged school places show that demand for the current 916 places across these two clusters will rise from the 887 applications received as at the closing date for reception places for 2012 (this figure will rise with the submission of late applications) to 929 places by To address the rise in demand for YR school places, Ashcombe Primary School will be admitting up to 90 YR pupils in September, In addition, to address the anticipated overall rise in demand for school places, a consultation is currently taking place to seek views on the Authority s proposals to expand Ashcombe Primary School from its current capacity of 420 pupils to a capacity on 630 pupils. With the proposed increase in provision at Ashcombe Primary School by 30 places per year group this will secure an additional 210 school places in the cluster. 5

6 Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May 2012) Net School Backwell Group Capacity places Backwell C of E VC Junior Birdwell Primary Court-de-Wyck VC Primary Flax Bourton Cof E VC Primary Northleaze Primary West Leigh Infant Yatton C of E VC Infant Yatton C of E VC Junior (excluding new housing) housing housing Group total 1,728 1,775 1,531 1,583 1,633 1,658 1,

7 Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May 2012) 7 Churchill East Group Net Capacity School places Dundry C of E VC Primary Winford C of E Primary (excluding new housing) housing housing Group total Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May 2012) Churchill South Group Net Capacity School places Banwell Primary Blagdon County Primary Burrington C of E VA Primary Churchill C of E Primary Sandford County Primary Winscombe County Primary (excluding new housing) housing housing Group total

8 Churchill North Group Net Capacity School places St Andrew's C of E VC Primary Wrington C of E Primary (excluding new housing) housing housing Group total Gordano/Pill Group Net Capacity School places Crockerne Primary High Down Infant* High Down Junior* Portishead Primary St Mary's C of E Primary St Peter's C of E Primary Trinity Primary (excluding new housing) housing housing Group total 2,289 2,580 2,253 2,331 2,431 2,511 2, St Joseph's RC Primary *High Down Infant and Junior empty figures need to be considered collectively due to the proposed changes mentioned earlier in this document.

9 Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May 2012) Net School Clevedon Group Capacity places All Saints C of E Primary Mary Elton Primary St John the Evangelist VA Primary St Nicholas Chantry C of E VC Primary Yeo Moor Primary (excluding new housing) housing housing Group total 1,584 1,585 1,410 1,457 1,480 1,491 1,

10 Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May 2012) Net School Nailsea Group Capacity places Golden Valley Primary Grove Junior Hannah More Infant Kingshill C of E VC Primary Tickenham VC Primary Wraxall C of E VA Primary (excluding new housing) housing housing Group total 1,407 1,425 1,249 1,205 1,132 1,082 1, St Francis RC Primary

11 Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May 2012) 11 WSM North Group Net Capacity School places Becket Primary Castle Batch Primary** Heron's Moor Hillside County First*** Kewstoke Primary Mead Vale County Primary Mendip Green First*** St Anne's C of E Primary St Mark's Primary St Martin's C of E VC Junior*** St. Georges VA Church Primary School Worlebury St Paul's (excluding new housing) housing housing Group total 3,761 4,102 3,723 3,953 4,136 4,300 4, **Castle Batch figures reflect a Speech and Language Resource Base on site which has a capacity of 19 pupils in addition to the 420 school places. ***Hillside, Mendip Green and St. Martin s figures need to be considered collectively due their change in to full primary schools, resulting in 210; 630 and 630 places respectively. Projected pupil numbers from new housing for this cluster are primarily based on expected dwelling completions in Locking Parklands and West Wick. The numbers of dwelling anticipated being completed are 299 by March 2013, 336 by March 2014, 271 by March 2015 and 250 by March This gives a total of 1156 completed dwellings out of an anticipated 4018 in total (3100 of which are Locking Parklands and 918 in the West Wick area).

12 Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May 2012) WSM Central Group Net Capacity School places Ashcombe County Primary Christ Church C of E VC Primary Milton Park (excluding new housing) housing housing Group total 1,004 1,260 1,050 1,070 1,112 1,148 1, Corpus Christi RC Primary

13 Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May2012) WSM South Group Net Capacity School places Bournville Primary Hutton C of E VC Primary Locking Primary Oldmixon Primary Uphill Primary Walliscote Primary Windwhistle Primary (excluding new housing) housing housing Group total 2,144 2,310 2,010 2,114 2,202 2,334 2, Projected pupil numbers from new housing for this cluster are primarily based on expected dwelling completions in Winterstoke Village. The numbers of dwelling anticipated being completed are 100 by March 2013, 100 by March 2014, 250 by March 2015 and 250 by March This gives a total of 700 completed dwellings out of an anticipated 2300 in total. 13

14 Primary School Projections number of pupils (figures produced May2012) Net School Roman Catholic Group Capacity places Corpus Christi RC Primary St Francis RC Primary St Joseph's RC Primary Year R not specifically allocated cumulative total, excluding new housing, (numbers per year given ion brackets) (4) 6 (2) 14 (8) 23 (9) 32 (9) Estimated Year R pupils from new housing Totals include YR pupils as detailed to the left. There is currently insufficient data available to be able to project the demand for Catholic school places as a result of the new developments. Given the scale of the planned new developments is it likely that the projected demand from new developments in the Weston and Gordano clusters will include a number of pupils who will express a preference for a Catholic school place, therefore the numbers given above for the Catholic cluster should be treated as minimum expected numbers. Estimated Years 1-6 pupils from new housing Group total Grand total 16,190 17,431 15,383 15,864 16,258 16,639 17,060 2,048 1,567 1,

15 Year R projected demand by cluster PAN (Planned Admission Number) st preference + late applications as at 04/04/12 Predicted new housing pupils* Surplus / deficit PAN (Planned Admission Number) Predicted demand Predicted new housing pupils Surplus / deficit PAN (Planned Admission Number) Backwell Churchill East Churchill North Churchill South Clevedon Gordano / Pill Nailsea WSM Central WSM North WSM South Roman Catholic** Total 2,487 2, ,465 2, ,465 2, ,465 2, ,465 2, *As first preference data has been used for 2012, it is assumed that YR children from new developments will have applied for a school place and are therefore accounted for. **Catholic school Year R deficit per school is shown in the main projections table. 15 Predicted demand Predicted new housing pupils Surplus / deficit PAN (Planned Admission Number) Predicted demand Predicted new housing pupils s Surplus / deficit PAN (Planned Admission Number) Predicted demand Predicted new housing pupils Surplus / deficit

16 Secondary School Projections number of pupils, years 7-13 (figures produced May 2012) Net Capacity School Backwell Broadoak Churchill Clevedon Gordano Hans Price* Nailsea Priory St Katherines Worle Total 13,547 12,765 12,739 12,765 12,900 13, *Hans Price Academy (previously Wyvern Community School) came into being on 1 May It was agreed that the admission number for the academy would rise from 200 to 240 places per year group in preparation for changes on the site. The Academy should benefit shortly from a 14m rebuild and remodelling programme and should, once building is complete, be able to accommodate up to 1200 pupils overall. The projection figures do not include pupils who are likely to continue to participate in education from 2013 as a result of the Spending Review and the White Paper The Importance of Teaching, where the Government made clear its continued commitment to raising the participation age to 17 in 2013 and to 18 by Raising the participation age does not necessarily mean young people must stay in school; they will able to choose one of the following options: full-time education, such as school, college or home education work-based learning, such as an Apprenticeship part-time education or training if they are employed, self-employed or volunteering for more than 20 hours a week. 16