IPAA: Managing Debt in Troubled Times Surviving 2016
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1 IPAA: Managing Debt in Troubled Times Surviving 2016
2 Public Capital Markets E&P Issuance E&P High Yield, Investment Grade and Public Equity Issuance ($bn) $35 High Yield Investment Grade Public Equity $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $ Sources: Bloomberg, Morgan Markets 2
3 U.S. Oil & Gas Eroding Asset Coverage Total Debt vs. PV-10 [1] $350 $105 $300 $90 $250 $75 Debt & PV-10 ($ in billions) $200 $150 $60 $45 WTI ($/Bbl) $100 $30 $50 $15 $ Total Debt PV-10 WTI Annual Average $0 [1] Aggregate of 19 public E&P companies (APA, APC, AR, CLR, COG, COP, CXO, DVN, EOG, EQT, FANG, HES, MRO, NBL, NFX, OXY, PXD, RRC, XEC); PV-10 After Tax; Source: EnerCom 3
4 U.S. Oil & Gas Cash Flow Based Leverage Debt to TTM EBITDA [1] [2] 5.0x $ x 4.0x $ x 3.0x $75 2.5x 2.0x $50 1.5x 1.0x $25 0.5x $0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2016E 2017E Debt/TTM EBITDA WTI Quarterly Average [1] Debt/TTM EBITDA is an aggregate of 48 Large, Mid, Small, and Micro cap companies [2] Q Debt numbers are a mix of actuals and holding debt constant and 2017 debt numbers assume no change from Q4 2015; Q EBITDA numbers are a mix of actuals and Bloomberg estimates, 2016 and 2017 are Bloomberg estimates; Source: EnerCom 4
5 E&P Equity Market Performance E&P Index vs. S&P 500 Index Relative Change Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 EPX SPX Sources: Bloomberg, Morgan Markets 5
6 E&P High Yield Market Performance Historical High Yield Index Yields 28.0% 23.0% 2008 Highs: HY - All: 20.98% HY - Energy: 17.84% HY - E&P: 18.99% 2016 Highs: HY - All: 10.44% HY - Energy: 19.88% HY - E&P: 26.60% 18.0% Yield 13.0% 8.0% 3.0% Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 HY - All HY - Energy HY - E&P Sources: Bloomberg, Morgan Markets 6
7 Select Producer Trading Levels As of 7/15/2014 As of 11/30/2014 As of 2/11/2016 As of 4/14/2016 Amount Ratings Price YTW Price YTW Price YTW Price YTW Newfield Exploration 5.625% Sr Notes due '24 $1,000 Ba3 / BB % % % % Antero Resources 5.375% Sr Notes due '21 $1,000 Ba3 / BB % % % % Concho Resources 5.500% Sr Notes due '23 $1,550 Ba2 / BB % % % % Range Resources 5.000% Sr Sub Notes due '23 $750 B1 / BB % % % % Diamondback Energy 7.625% Sr Notes due '21 $450 B2 / BB % % % % Gulfport Energy 7.750% Sr Notes due '20 $600 B2 / B % % % % Rice Energy 6.250% Sr Notes due '22 $900 B3 / B % % % % SM Energy 5.000% Sr Notes due '24 $500 B3 / B % % % % Oasis Petroleum 6.875% Sr Notes due '23 $400 Caa1 / B % % % % Whiting Petroleum 5.750% Sr Notes due '21 $1,048 Caa2 / B % % % % Denbury Resources 5.500% Sr Sub Notes due '22 $1,250 Caa3 / CCC % % % % Approach Resources 7.000% Sr Notes due '21 $230 Caa3 / CCC % % % % Chesapeake Energy 5.750% Sr Notes due '23 $384 Caa3 / CC % % % % Bonanza Creek Energy 6.750% Sr Notes due '21 $500 Ca / CC % % % % Sources: Bloomberg, Dealogic 7
8 E&P Public Capital Issuance E&P High Yield, Investment Grade and Public Equity Issuance ($bn) $35 High Yield Investment Grade Public Equity $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $ YTD 2016 Sources: Bloomberg, Morgan Markets 8
9 E&P Universe: Distressed Exchanges, Missed Coupons, Defaults & Bankruptcies E&P Defaults and Distressed Exchanges Volume ($mm) Count Volume ($mm) Count Volume ($mm) Count Defaults $0.0 0 $10, $7, Distressed Exchanges $0.0 0 $13, $1, Missed Coupon Payments Delayed Auditor Going Issuer Debt Payment Concern Qualification Issuer Filed Chapter 11 Filing Date SandRidge Energy 2/16/2015 Chaparral Energy 3/1/2016 M idstates Petroleum 4/1/2016 Ultra Petroleum 4/1/2016 Goodrich Petroleum Penn Virginia Quicksilver Resources 3/17/2015 American Eagle Energy 5/8/2015 Saratoga Resources 6/18/2015 Sabine Oil & Gas 7/15/2015 Samson Resources 9/17/2015 Swift Energy 12/13/2015 M agnum Hunter 12/17/2016 Venoco 3/18/2016 Energy XXI 4/14/2016 Sources: Bloomberg, Dealogic Data only includes companies that have issued High Yield Debt Data as of April 14,
10 Rating Actions in the E&P Sector Rating Action Activity Since Number of Actions Upgrade to Downgrade Ratio More Downgrades More Upgrades Upgrade Downgrade Upgrade to Downgrade Ratio Breakeven 0.00 Sources: Bloomberg, Dealogic 10
11 Spring BB Redetermination Season Lender & Borrower Requests While the number of issuers seeking covenant relief is relatively small (but increasing), a number of common elements across the requests have emerged In exchange for covenant relief (principally leverage and coverage), pricing across the grid has markedly increased with lenders seeking additional protective provisions, including anti-cash hoarding and reductions in various investment & debt baskets Denbury [1] Gulfport Legacy CRC Eclipse Private Clayton Williams Amendment Date: 2/17/16 2/19/16 2/19/16 2/23/16 2/24/16 3/1/16 3/8/16 BB Reduction: $1.6 to $1.5bn - $900 to $725mm $3.0 to $2.3bn - $295 to $280mm $450 to $100mm Lender Requests Borrower Requests Covenant Relief: Lev erage X X X X Interest Cov erage X X X X X Current Ratio Spending / Basket Approval: CapEx X Bond Repurchase X X X Debt / Lien Incurrence X X X X X Other Requests: LC Limit Increase X General Requests: Pricing Grid Increase 75.0 bps bps 75.0 bps 50.0 bps bps New Pricing Grid Range: ( bps) ( bps) ( bps) ( bps) ( bps) ( bps) ( bps) Mortgage Threshhold Increase 80% to 85% 85% to 90% 80% to 85% 80% to 90% Anti-Cash Hoarding X X X X Added Cov enant(s) X 13 Week Cash Flow Reporting X X Deposit Account Control Agmt. X X Basket Reductions / Eliminations X X X X [1] BB Reduction reflects the decrease in commitments, not borrowing base, for Denbury 11
12 Spring BB Redetermination Season Lender & Borrower Requests (cont d) Private Range Whiting Company A Company B Company C [1] Amendment Date: 3/15/16 3/17/16 3/25/16 In Market In Market In Market BB Reduction: - - $4.0 to $2.75bn ~25% ~15% Increase ~15% Borrower Requests Covenant Relief: Lev erage X X Interest Cov erage X X Current Ratio Spending / Basket Approval: CapEx Bond Repurchase Debt / Lien Incurrence X X X Other Requests: LC Limit Increase Lender Requests General Requests: Pricing Grid Increase bps 50.0 bps TBD 50.0 bps New Pricing Grid Range: ( bps) ( bps) ( bps) ( bps) TBD ( bps) Mortgage Threshhold Increase 80% to 90% 80% to 90% 75% to 90% Anti-Cash Hoarding X X X Added Cov enant(s) X 13 Week Cash Flow Reporting Deposit Account Control Agmt. X X X Basket Reductions / Eliminations [1] BB Reduction reflects the decrease in commitments, not borrowing base, for Company C 12
13 Fallen Angels Join the High Yield Market Recent Rating Actions Fallen Angels $mm Bonds Ratings Average Bond Price Issuer Outstanding Previous Current July 2014 Current Moody's Anadarko Petroleum $17,257 Baa2 / BBB Ba1 / BBB Canadian Oil Sands $1,962 Baa3 / BBB- Ba3 / BBB Cenovus Energy $6,075 Baa2 / BBB Ba2 / BBB Continental Resources* $5,800 Baa3 / BBB- Ba3 / BB Devon Energy* $9,425 Baa1 / BBB+ Ba2 / BBB Encana Corporation $6,012 Baa2 / BBB Ba2 / BBB Hess $5,650 Baa2 / BBB Ba1 / BBB Marathon Oil $6,300 Baa1 / BBB Ba1 / BBB Murphy Oil $2,250 Baa3 / BBB Ba3 / BBB Southwestern Energy* $3,867 Baa3 / BBB- B1 / BB S&P Newfield Exploration $2,450 Ba1 / BBB- Ba3 / BB Issuers with 'BBB' Rating and Negative Outlooks $mm Bonds Ratings Average Bond Price Issuer Outstanding Current Outlook July 2014 Current Apache Corporation [1] $8,831 Baa3 / BBB Negative Canadian Natural Resources [1] $11,462 Baa3 / BBB+ Negative ConocoPhillips $25,693 Baa2 / A Negative Noble Energy $6,190 Baa3 / BBB Negative Repsol Oil & Gas $1,854 Baa3 / BBB- Negative Sources: Bloomberg, Dealogic Note: * Denotes a rating action by both Moody s and S&P [1] Given stable outlook from S&P 13
14 Potential High Yield Supply on the Rise Outstanding High Yield Volume ($bn) $400 Outstanding from E&P 'BBB' Issuers with Negative Outlook Outstanding E&P Fallen Angels Outstanding High Yield E&P $300 $200 $100 $ YTD 2016 Sources: Bloomberg, Dealogic 14
15 Disclosure DISCLOSURE OF PARTIES, DUAL EMPLOYEE STATUS AND RELATED MATTERS KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which the corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC, and KeyBank National Association ( KeyBank N.A. ), are marketed. Securities products and services are offered by KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and by its licensed securities representatives. Banking products and services are offered by KeyBank N.A. A number of our corporate and institutional team members are employed by both KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and KeyBank N.A. These dual employees are licensed securities representatives of KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., and they are there to better serve your needs, by making available both securities and banking products and services. Further, in connection with our effort to deliver a comprehensive array of banking and securities products and services to you in a seamless manner, from time to time KeyBank N.A. and KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. will share with each other certain non-public information that you provide to us. Of course, as always, this information will not be shared or otherwise disclosed outside of the KeyCorp organization without your express permission. Please also be assured that, as with other banks and broker-dealers, KeyBank N.A. and KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. adhere to established internal procedures to safeguard your corporate information from areas within our organization that trade in or advise clients with respect to the purchase and sale of securities. THE OBLIGATIONS OF KEYBANC CAPITAL MARKETS INC. ARE NOT OBLIGATIONS OF KEYBANK N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATE BANKS, AND NONE OF KEYCORP S BANKS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR, OR GUARANTEE, THE SECURITIES OR SECURITIES-RELATED PRODUCTS OR SERVICES SOLD, OFFERED OR RECOMMENDED BY KEYBANC CAPITAL MARKETS INC. OR ITS EMPLOYEES. SECURITIES AND OTHER INVESTMENT PRODUCTS SOLD, OFFERED OR RECOMMENDED BY KEYBANC CAPITAL MARKETS INC., IF ANY, ARE NOT BANK DEPOSITS OR OBLIGATIONS AND ARE NOT INSURED BY THE FDIC. 15
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