After a turnaround, DSB is ready to pursue topline growth

Transcription

1 Executive Summary Unlocking growth from business travelers, through loyalty programs and seamless connectivity - business travel can set off DSB on a sustainable growth path towards 2030 After a turnaround, DSB is ready to pursue topline growth After a series of troubled years, DSB is now firmly back on track, ready to transport Danes to and from their jobs, families and friends. Despite internationally high punctuality, DSB still hold an unfavorable reputation in the Danish population. Nevertheless, the ambition is to grow the total number of traveled km by 7.5 % in three years. Extra travelers needed to reach growth goal While the needed growth is not far from what has been seen in recent years, DSB has a unique opportunity to explore new sources of growth, helping them reach the ambitious 2030 target, while satisfying their social and political obligations. However, for the next few years, no major improvements in infrastructure can be expected, so growth must come from better utilization of idle capacity. While business travel is currently a small area, it holds the most promising, unexploited growth opportunities of the segments Although commuters have previously driven growth, rush-hour travels have reached the capacity limit, and improvements can not be expected within the next three years. Business Leisure Commuters The most promising opportunity is therefore to focus on an underserved segment, in the form of business travelers. While today, they make up only a small share of total travels, there is considerable potential in brining more car travelers aboard the trains. Forecasted impact Business growth can be unlocked by improving customer experiences through a loyalty program and seamless connectivity While DSB launched a business travel offering, WorkPlus, in 2009, it has not realized its growth potential yet. Crucially, to attract larger firms, the reputation and status of business travelling has to increase. bn km/year 2,4% 6,2 6,3 6,5 6,7 4,0% 7,9 0,5 11,4 0,8 We propose to let WorkPlus be inspired by the business airline industry, and introduce a loyalty program for business travelers. Together with complementary initiatives, it will create stronger brand affiliation, and foster an employee-driven push to convert business car trips towards rails Gain Base The strategy will put DSB on a sustainable growth towards 2030 The plan for capturing a larger share of business travelers, will shine on each of DSB s three bottom lines. Economically, the segment is highly profitable. Reputationally, large fossil fuel emissions can be avoided by bringing single car travelers aboard trains. Politically, DSB will set off on its ambitious growth path, without compromising its societal obligations. Team PowerPoint Rangers Mail: oskar.harmsen@gmail.com Ask Nørgaard Heje, Economics and Management, Aarhus University Thyge Ryom Enggaard, Quantitative Economics, Aarhus University Oskar Harmsen, Economics, University of Copenhagen Peter Aagaard Nielsen, Finance, Aarhus University

2 Unlocking growth from business travelers, through loyalty programs and seamless connectivity PowerPoint Rangers Ask Nørgaard Heje, Economics and Management, Aarhus University Thyge Ryom Enggaard, Quantitative Economics, Aarhus University Oskar Harmsen, Economics, University of Copenhagen Peter Aagaard Nielsen, Finance, Aarhus University

3 Executive Summary By improving high-end customer experiences, DSB can penetrate the business travel market to initiate a new growth path Situation Goal Complications DSB is through a turnaround and ready to focus on topline Reputation in DK population is less than perfect Increase total passenger km by 7.5% over three years by improving customer experiences Capacity is severely constrained and growth in coming years will have to come with existing infrastructure DSB should unlock a new source of growth in the business segment, by improving customer experiences through seamless connectivity and a loyalty program While business travel is currently a small area, it holds the most promising, unexploited growth opportunities of the segments which DSB can unlock through focus on high-end customer experiences and a loyalty program Extra travelers needed to reach growth goal Excess capacity Potential demand Business putting DSB on a sustainable growth towards Leisure Commuters bn km/year 2,4% 6,2 6,3 6,5 Gain 4,0% 7,9 0,5 6,7 11,4 0,8 Base

4 What are segment potentials? The key challenge is to get more heavy users for each segment, both capacity and demand should be evaluated Only heavy users are relevant for growing the annual number of kilometres Question is whether each segment has sufficient growth possibilities Yearly transport*, (km / person / year) Heavy users Medium users Light users Average trip, km / trip Required CAGR, to reach growth goal Extra heavy travelers needed to reach growth goal** Business % Leisure % Commuters % Share of total km traveled 75% 12% 13% Key questions for each segment: a) Is there sufficient demand? b) Is there idle capacity? Source: Case material, team analysis, *average across motivation groups, **if average trip length is held constant

5 Why can we not grow with commuters? Commuter segment growth is constrained by limited capacity in the short term, but promises long-term potential towards 2030 Is there sufficient demand? While segment has grown during last years, and demand may continue to grow Is there available capacity? commuters typically travel in rush hours, where trains have reached maximum capacity Why can t the growth barriers be broken short term? No possibility of buying more trains Existing trains have already reached maximum capacity What will be done long term? Future investments will increase network capacity The Danish parliament has agreed to invest more than 100 billion DKK in the rail infrastructure More frequent departures are not possible Network capacity is limited by a number of traffic bottlenecks and old technology A new signaling program will make the track-usage more efficient. DSB and BaneDanmark have scheduled a new signaling program, but work is not to start soon Travelers can not be spread during work day Commuters are limited to certain travel times due to work Price discrimination is restricted by the government More use of price differentiation will be permitted. Making price incentives for people to travel in non-rush hours will smoothen out utilization during rush hours, making room for more commuters Source: DSB Case Material

6 Why can we not grow in leisure segment? Leisure segment has available capacity, but is currently unattractive due to increasing competition and rigid demand Is there sufficient demand? There is a high competition within the segment based on the demands of the customers New competitors are simultaneously threatening DSB on price and flexibility Flexibility High Is there available capacity? even though we have available capacity, as most travels are outside of rush hours.. making competitors better aligned with leisure travelers preferences Leisure passengers are particularly price sensitive since: They travel longer distances, making the trip more expensive They don t travel because of urgency, and thus have the opportunity to cancel if traveling becomes to expensive and drivers for demand are exogenously given Low High > New competitive landscape Low Price Drivers for leisure travel demand is to a large extend given by external factors as: Family members and close friends living in other parts of the country # of leisure events e.g. concerts and sports events.making it difficult for DSB to impact short term demand Source: Team analysis

7 How large a market share should be captured? Only a minor share of the total business travels by car have to be won over in order to reach the growth goals Is there sufficient demand? High demand for business travels - already accounting for ~1/3 of all cross belt travels by car Is there available capacity? business travels are independent of rush-hours and thus create a natural daily smoothing Business travelers by segment (%) Increase in customer kilometres per route (m. km) (target) % > Business Travels Train Flight Car Other Aalborg -CPH Aarhus -CPH Vejle -CPH Odense -CPH Total Travellers by car accounts for approximately 74% of all business travellers ~ business people. DSB offers clear value adds to this segment including +time and WorkPlus Source: Case material, Transportministeriet Targeting ~15% of car business customers travelling between key hubs reaches target of 488 m. customer kilometres Long distance business travellers are more likely to appreciate DSB value propositions as +time, WorkPlus and enjoying refreshments while travelling

8 What does it take to grow in business travels? DSB already has a business travel offering, WorkPlus, but an unfavorable perception of DSB inhibits further growth The current offering is inadequate Growth should come through improved customer experiences Current status of business offering Launched in 2009 Offers company deals with ticket price reductions and possibly tax advantages to travelers Provides simple and central administration of travel expenses Around 8,000 customers with average customer per company of 8 (2012). Little focus on customer experiences has limited the service to mostly smaller public offices New offerings should focus on perception and travel information & ease... Impact of marginal improvement Ease of marginal improvement 5 Comfort Total travel time Punctuality & Frequency Perception Travel information & ease Work possibility but also requires a stronger sales efforts focused on large accounts Decision to use WorkPlus rests at least partially with corporate controllers. The bottom-up approach has proven unsuccessful to penetration. Penetration should be supported through focused sales effort 1. Put together a team of experienced key account managers 2. Map highest value potential customers (location, #traveling, etc) 3. Approach key decision makers with tailored offerings, after customer experiences initiatives have been set in place See next slide Source: DSB, Bates Y&R (ad agency who worked on WorkPlus)

9 What changes are needed to grow the business segment? Through initatives on improving both perception and customer experience, DSB can attract more business travelers Objective: Creating a flight experience for business travellers The growth engine for the business segment should be a focus on improving customer experiences through strengthening the sense of exclusivity Elements How it works Intended impact Catering options Integrated planning Free beverages and, on longer term, lunch possibilities on board New part of DSB app, will enable taxi ordering, and live travel information Extra advantage relative to car travel will help customer acquisition Increased ease of use ensures seamless connectivity Remodel DSB 1 and WorkPlus around a more exclusive flight concept Preventive action on delays Scheduled delays are informed on favorite routes Unscheduled delays will resolve a free ticket voucher Employee-driven push for rail transportation Loyalty Program Points are earned by kilometres with bonus for cross-belt-travels see next slide

10 What will the loyalty program be? With the loyalty program for business travelers, DSB can create an employee-driven push for more rail travel Elements How it works Intended impact Points earned by kilometres Points are earned by kilometres with bonus for cross-belt-travels Extra points are earned on off-peak hours Employee-driven push for rail transportation Push for better capacity utilisation Points can be exchanged for; Taxa service (limited km) Seasonal trips with bringyour-family Special events (e.g. Tivoli-access) through points Push to give teasers of DSB products Stimulate brand affiliation Membership levels Member Gold Diamond Km/year: No restriction Free coffee, snacks, Wifi Access to taxi services Invitation to special cultural events Km/year, > 8,000 Free upgrade to DSB 1 on leisure travels Free seat reservation Km/year, > 20,000 Bring a companion Free lunch on long distance (>200 km) travels Will help create basic brand affiliation Cutoff slightly above avg. heavy users to boost travels Only for the most frequent travellers

11 What is the impact of the strategy? DSB will reach the growth target while securing performance on both political, reputational and economic bottom-line 1 Political bottom-line 2 bn. km. 6,2 Effect from proposal Base case 6,3 2,4% 6,5 0,3 6, ,9% 7, ,4 0.8 Reputational bottom-line CO2 emission in kg. (example: one trip from Aalborg to CPH) -75,6% Economic/financial bottom-line Bil Source: DSB.dk Tog m. DKK Profit Cost Inv Relatively high profit margins caused by utilization of unused capacity lead to positive incremental profit Assumptions Marginal profit margin ~ 30% Investment break down: 40 m. in development of customer loyalty program 10 m. in enhancement of equipment 30 m. in implementation of IT-system underlying loyalty program Revenue per km. ~ 1 DKK Source: Team analysis