Stephen G. Brozak (908) UPDATING COVERAGE NEOPROBE CORPORATION (NYSE-AMEX: NEOP)

Transcription

1 WBB Securities, LLC Stephen G. Brozak (908) UPDATING COVERAGE NEOPROBE CORPORATION (NYSE-AMEX: NEOP) REITERATING STRONG BUY RATING AND 12-MONTH PRICE TARGET OF $9.00 DECEMBER 13, Month Target Price $9.00 Market Capitalization (Mil) $ Shares Outstanding (Mil) Avg. Daily Volume 466,839 L. T. Debt (Mil) $0.06 Dividend/Yield N/A Book Value P/S $ Month Price and Trading Volume Current Price $ Month Trading Range $ $5.48 Rating Legend: NASDAQ Composite 2, S&P 500 1, Source QUODD -- Historical Performance on Page 4 Strong Buy Should be aggressively purchased. Buy - Should be purchased on market weakness. Hold - Fairly valued. Sell - Stock should be sold on market strength. Sell Short - Should be aggressively sold. Speculative Buy For aggressive accounts only. Neoprobe In-Licenses Alzheimer's Disease Radiopharmaceutical Imaging Candidate Neoprobe Corporation (NEOP) announced on December 12, 2011 that it has in-licensed the worldwide exclusive rights to the radiopharmaceutical imaging candidate, AZD4694, from AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) for aiding Alzheimer s Disease (AD) diagnosis. AD is a virtual epidemic. Practically everyone has a relative or knows of someone with AD. The World Health Organization estimates that AD affects over 24 million people worldwide. According to the Alzheimer s Association there are now over 5 million Alzheimer s patients in the U.S. and by 2050, as many as 16 million Americans could have the disease. Clinical studies in more than 70 patients suggest that AZD4694 can image patients for AD quickly and safely with high sensitivity. AZD4694, combined with fluorine-18, (a radionuclide with 110 minute halflife) binds to beta-amyloid plaques in AD patients and renders the plaque deposits radio-opaque in Positron Emission Tomography (PET) studies. Patients who are negative for amyloid pathology do not have AD. NEOP says it intends to initiate a Phase III clinical trial of AZD 4694 in early Patents and patent applications filed around the world related to AZD4694 are effective until We believe this is a significant and extremely positive step for NEOP. The company has demonstrated that it is highly capable of guiding a candidate product through the arduous and complex clinical trial process leading to an NDA and with the divestiture of its gamma detection probe business, NEOP is now strategically focused on another evolving and important candidate. We are therefore reiterating our Strong Buy recommendation for NEOP and reiterating our 12-month price target of $9.00

2 Valuation We believe that until all the details of the agreement with AZN become fully known, it is too soon to understand all of the ramifications of the in-licensing of AZD4694. We fully expect the in-licensing to have a positive effect on NEOP's value and want to make sure we do not undervalue its impact. Therefore, at the present time, we are maintaining our $9.00 per share 12-month price target for NEOP, again basing it on a sum of the parts valuation model. We still calculate a $2.40 per share value for the RIGS technology and combine it with forward-looking revenue expectations for Lymphoseek beginning in Our model continues to estimate 2013E Lymphoseek revenue at approximately $300 million. We still apply a 5-times sales multiple and a discount rate of 15 percent to derive a Lymphoseek value of $6.60 per share. We estimate cash from sale of the gamma detection probe and value of the newly in-licensed radiopharmaceutical pipeline product at a preliminary $30 million, and expected royalty revenue of $21 million, thus adding a value of $.50 per share. We still assume approximately million fully diluted shares and arrive at our current 12-month price target of $9.00 per share. With that, we reiterate our Strong Buy rating on shares of NEOP. Financial Terms of Agreement Financial terms of the in-licensing agreement include an upfront payment of $5 million to AZN and a series of contingent milestone payments including up to $6.5 million based on the achievement of clinical development and regulatory filing milestones and up to additional $11 million following regulatory approvals and initiation of commercial sales. NEOP also will pay AZN royalties on net sales of the approved product. AZN retains the right to use AZD4694 in clinical trials to support development of potential treatments for Alzheimer s disease. Name Change In a December 8, 2011 announcement, NEOP reported it will change its name to Navidea Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. The Company also is scheduled to begin trading under a new ticker symbol (NAVB) on the NYSE Amex exchange at market open on January 5, In connection with the sale of the neoprobe GDS medical device business and related brand name (Neoprobe) to Devicor Medical Products in August 2011, the Company commenced a corporate re-branding initiative reflecting its business pursuits in the precision diagnostics space. Navidea was chosen as the new name to reflect the Company s dedication to NAVigating IDEAs that translate cutting edge innovation and precision diagnostics technology into novel products to advance patient care. WBB SECURITIES, LLC 2

3 Management Mark J. Pykett, V.M.D., Ph.D., President and Chief Executive Officer since April He served as Vice President and Chief Development Officer of Neoprobe from November 2010 to April Prior to joining Neoprobe, Dr. Pykett served as Founding CEO of Talaris Advisors LLC, a strategic drugdevelopment company serving the biotech industry, from 2009 to November Prior to Talaris, Dr. Pykett was President and Chief Operating Officer of Alseres Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (formerly Boston Life Sciences, Inc.), President and a Director of CyGenics, President of Cordlife, and President and Chief Executive Officer and a Director of Cytomatrix. Dr.Pykett has also served as a Director of ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals since 2004 and currently serves on the Boards of Directors of several private and not-for-profit organizations. Dr. Pykett graduated Phi Beta Kappa, summa cum laude from Amherst College, earned a veterinary degree, Phi Zeta, summa cum laude, and a Ph.D. in molecular biology from the University of Pennsylvania and holds an M.B.A., Beta Gamma Sigma, from Northeastern University. In addition, Dr. Pykett completed post-doctoral fellowships at the University of Pennsylvania and Harvard University. Thomas Tulip, Ph.D. Executive Vice President, Chief Business Officer since June Prior to joining Neoprobe, Dr. Tulip held senior leadership positions at Alseres Pharmaceuticals, Lantheus Medical Imaging, Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) and DuPont, where his roles spanned product discovery and development, business and technology planning, brand and alliance management and international business management. Dr. Tulip earned a B.S. from the University of Vermont, and an M.S. and Ph.D. from the Northwestern University. He was a visiting scholar at Osaka University and served as adjunct professor at Northeastern University. He serves on the Board of Directors of the Medical Imaging Technology Association (MITA) and leads its PET Working Group in the Molecular Imaging Section. He was recently Chairperson of the Institute for Molecular Technologies (IMT). He served on the Board of the Academy of Molecular Imaging, including as its Treasurer. Dr. Tulip was Chairperson for the Society of Nuclear Medicine (SNM) Corporate Advisory Board and has been active in a number of Council on Radionuclides and Radiopharmaceuticals (CORAR) committees, now serving on its Board of Directors. Rodger A. Brown - Vice President, Regulatory Affairs / Quality Assurance since November 2000 and prior to that, Director, Regulatory Affairs from July 1998 to March Prior to joining NEOP, Mr. Brown served as Director of Regulatory Affairs/QA for Biocore Medical Technologies, Inc. from April 1997 to April From 1981 through 1996, Mr. Brown served as Director, Regulatory Affairs/Quality Assurance for E for M Corporation, a subsidiary of Marquette Electronics, Inc. Frederick O. Cope, Ph.D. Senior Vice President, Pharmaceutical Research and Clinical Development since February Dr. Cope brings a wealth of experience in clinical management and medical product development to Neoprobe, including six years of overseeing the oncology collaborative research programs at The Ohio State University medical research facilities. Brent L. Larson - Senior Vice President-Finance and Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Secretary Mr. Larson has served as Senior Vice President-Finance, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer since February He has served as Secretary to Neoprobe since He served as Vice President, Finance from July 1998 to January 1999 and as Controller from July 1996 to June Before joining Neoprobe he was employed by Price Waterhouse, LLP. He has a B.B.A. degree in accounting from Iowa State University of Science and Technology and is a Certified Public Accountant. WBB SECURITIES, LLC 3

4 Historical Performance EPS Q1 (0.03)A (0.05)A Q2 (0.64)A (0.02)A Q3 (0.03)A (0.21)A Q4 (0.02)A Year (0.72)A 0.00E* (0.16)E P/E NM NM NM EPS Growth NM NM NM FY Rev. (Mil) $10.7A $27.26E* 15.0E** FY:DEC *27 mm net excluding taxes from Gamma Detection Probe Sale and.26 in grants **$10mm GDS revenue,.$5mm in early Lymphoseek sales. Other companies mentioned in this report: AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) WBB SECURITIES, LLC 4

5 Distribution of Ratings and Disclosure of Banking Relationships: The following table shows WBB s ratings distribution expressed as a percentage of all securities rated as of the end of the most recent calendar quarter, as well as the percentage of subject companies within each rating category for whom WBB has provided investment banking services within the previous 12 months. WBB has provided investment banking services within the previous 12 months. WBB Securities currently has an equity position in Neoprobe Corporation. Percentage of Covered Securities Percentage of Banking Clients Buy 66% 12% Hold 16% 0% Sell 18% 0% The research analyst who is primarily responsible for the research contained in this research report and whose name is listed on this report: (1) attests that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect that of the research analyst's personal views about any and all of the securities and issuers that are the subject of this research report; and (2) attests that no part of that research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in this research report. All WBB Securities, LLC ("WBB") employees, including research associates, receive compensation that is based in part upon the overall performance of the firm, including revenues generated by WBB's investment banking department, but not directly related to those revenues. Although information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. Opinions and estimates may be changed or withdrawn without notice. This report is not intended as an offer or solicitation, or as the basis for any contract, for the purchase or sale of any security, loan or other instrument. We or our affiliates or persons associated with us or such affiliates ( Associated Persons ) do maintain a long position in securities, loans or other instruments referred to herein or in other securities, loans or instruments of issuers named herein, or in related derivatives; we may purchase or sell, make a market in, or buy or sell on a principle basis, or engage in other transactions involving such securities, loans or instruments of such issuers; and/or provide investment banking, credit, or other services to any issuers named herein. The author of this report and the officers of WBB do own options, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities of the issuer whose securities are recommended, unless the extent of ownership is nominal. The past performance of securities, loans or other instruments does not guarantee or predict future performance. This report may not be reproduced or circulated without our written authority. WBB SECURITIES, LLC 5