Gold & Copper: Developer

Transcription

1 Gold & Copper: Developer YTC Resources Limited YTC RESOURCES LIMITED Nymagee a Significant Copper Discovery On-going drilling by YTC Resources Limited ( YTC, Company ) at its Nymagee project (YTC 90%), located ~100km southeast of Cobar, NSW continues to intersect high-grade copper with silver credit. Recent results have identified shallow copper mineralisation over broad intervals at the southern and northern end of the historic mine and with more high-grade copper lodes confirmed through deeper drilling. Nymagee is evolving into a significant copper discovery for the Company, with the mineralised system containing at least three high-grade copper lodes which should result in a longer mine life and potentially enable increased production rates (once developed). YTC believes that the Nymagee system may be similar to the nearby world-class CSA deposit which has yielded over 1.5Mt of copper and extends to depths over 1.5km with multiple high-grade copper lodes. Strong lead-zinc-silver lenses are also developing within the Nymagee system which has the potential to provide further credits and improve project economics once in production. Recent drilling of the western lead-zinc-silver lens has delivered some of the widest intercepts at the highest grades to date, and is located only 15m west of the Main Lens at Nymagee. Far West Lens provides more upside at Hera The Hera deposit consists of a number of sub-vertical, high grade gold-leadzinc-silver-copper lenses with zones of coarse gold. Some of the lenses are gold-rich, whereas others are more base metal rich. The deposit is still open at depth and along strike. The project has an indicated and inferred resource of 4.0g/t Au, 15.6g/t Ag, 2.8% Pb and 3.9% Zn for ~560.7koz Au Eq. However, this is likely to be updated in both size and confidence level with the current ongoing drilling as part of the DFS. The Main lens contains the bulk of the resource and has a ~600m strike. Other significant lenses include the 1530, the Far West and the Western Lead lens. Further strong gold and base metal results have been received from recently completed infill-drilling of the Far West Lens, with visible gold identified in some intervals Expanded DFS on track for mid year YTC is currently completing a DFS into the development of Hera and Nymagee. The DFS originally proposed a 350ktpa plant, producing ~50kozAuEq per annum, from the Hera project alone. However, following the exploration success at Nymagee, as well as the Far West Lens at Hera, the Company is now looking at expanded production scenarios. Drilling is continuing at Hera and Nymagee with a maiden resource due for Nymagee soon. In addition, the completion of the DFS and key project approvals for Hera are expected in mid 2011 with a decision to mine in the September quarter New Resource Estimate Soon; YTC rated a Speculative Buy The drilling at Nymagee and Hera continue to both de-risk and extend the ore bodies. The deposits have not been closed off by drilling implying further resource growth to come. We have a price target for YTC of 72cps based on our weighted valuation development scenario for Hera and Nymagee. We continue to recommendation YTC Resources Limited as a Speculative Buy. YTC.asx Speculative Buy 1 Jun 2011 Share Price (last) $0.590 Price Target $0.72 Brief Business Description Gold and Base Metals Explorer/Developer Hartleys Brief Investment Conclusion Nymagee to give Hera project scale for 2012 production Issued Capital - fully diluted Market Cap - fully diluted Cash (est) EV Main Projects Hera (NSW) Nymagee (NSW) Au, Base Metals Cu Resources 4g/t Au, 15.6 g/t Ag, 2.8% Pb & 3.9% Zn Board Mr Wenxiang Gao (Chairman) Mr Anthony Wehby (Vice Chairman) Mr Rimas Kairaitis (Dir. and CEO) Mr Stephen Woodham (Non-Exec. Dir.) Mr Robin Chambers (Non-Exec. Dir.) Mr Richard Hill (Non-Exec. Dir.) Quoqing Zhang (Non-Exec. Dir.) Ms Christine Ng (Non-Exec. Dir.) Top Shareholders Yunnan Tin Aust TDK Resources 14.8% Wonderful Investments Limited 9.0% Company Address 2 Corporation Place Orange, NSW, Jun-10 YTC Resources Author Mike Millikan Resources Analyst Ph E [email protected] 248.2m 253.6m $146.4m $149.6m $33.0m $113.4m 0.50 A$ 2.5 M Oct-10 Feb Jun-11 Hartleys has provided corporate advice w ithin the past 12 months and continues to provide corporate advice to YTC Resources Limited. See back page for full disclosure Volume - RHS Source: IRESS YTC Shareprice - LHS Sector (S&P/ASX SMALL RESOURCES) - LHS Hartleys Limited ABN (AFSL ) 141 Page St Georges 1 of 7 Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000 Hartleys does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 Hartleys Limited YTC Resources Limited 1 June 2011 SUMMARY MODEL YTC Resources Limited Share Price June 2011 YTC $0.590 Speculative Buy Key Market Information Directors Company Information Share Price $0.590 Mr Wenxiang Gao (Chairman) 2 Corporation Place Market Capitalisation $146m Mr Anthony Wehby (Vice Chairman) Orange, NSW, Week High-Low $0.82-$0.17 Mr Rimas Kairaitis (Dir. and CEO) Tel: (02) Issued Capital 248.2m Mr Stephen Woodham (Non-Exec. Dir.) Fax: (02) Issued Capital (fully diluted inc. ITM options) 253.6m Mr Robin Chambers (Non-Exec. Dir.) Web: w w w.ytcresources.com Options 0.29c Mr Richard Hill (Non-Exec. Dir.) Hedging - Yearly Turnover/Volume $95.5m/202.8m shares Liquidity Measure (Yearly Turnover/Issued Capital) 82% 1 Top 10 Shareholders m shares % Valuation $ Yunnan Tin Aust TDK Resources % Financial Performance Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F 4 Wonderful Investments Limited % 5 Yunnan Tin YTC Holdings Pty Ltd % Net Revenue A$m HSBC Custody Nom Aust Ltd % Total Costs A$m (2.8) (2.1) (5.1) (45.3) 7 ANZ Nominees Limited % EBITDA A$m (1.4) (1.9) (2.2) Locksley Holdings Pty Ltd % Depreciation/Amort A$m (0.1) (0.1) (2.3) (11.7) 9 Smiff Pty Ltd % EBIT A$m (1.5) (2.0) (4.5) (3.2) # UBS Wealth Management Aust Nom % Net Interest A$m (1.1) (6.2) B & M Jackson Pty Ltd % Pre-Tax Profit A$m (1.1) (1.8) (5.6) (9.4) Mr Ian Bruce Cooper % Tax Expense A$m NPAT A$m (1.1) (1.8) (5.6) (9.4) Resources Abnormal Items A$m Reported Profit A$m (1.1) (1.8) (5.6) (9.4) Hera (I + I) Tonnes Au g/t Ag g/t Pb % Zn % Cu % 2,180, Financial Position Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F Production Summary Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F Cash A$m *Attributable Other Current Assets A$m Payable Zinc Metal 000t Total Current Assets A$m Payable Copper Metal 000t Property, Plant & Equip. A$m Payable Lead Metal 000t Exploration A$m Payable Silver Metal 000oz Investments/other A$m Payable Gold Metal 000oz Tot Non-Curr. Assets A$m Gold Equivalent 000oz Total Assets A$m Cash Cost (AuEq) $A/oz - - 1,706 1,006 Short Term Borrow ings A$m - - (40.0) (40.0) Other A$m (0.6) (0.8) (5.6) (6.4) Price Assumptions Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F Total Curr. Liabilities A$m (0.6) (0.8) (45.6) (46.4) Long Term Borrow ings A$m Gold US$/oz Other A$m (1.4) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) Exchange Rate A$/US$ Total Non-Curr. Liabil. A$m (1.4) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) $A Gold A$/oz Total Liabilities A$m (2.0) (2.4) (47.2) (48.0) Hedging Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F Net Assets A$m Total Forw ard Sales - Gold 000oz Cashflow Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F Forw ard Gold Price $A/oz Operating Cashflow A$m (0.6) (0.2) Sensitivity Analysis Valuation ($/s) NPAT EPS ( ) CFPS ( ) Income Tax Paid A$m Interest & Other A$m (1.1) (6.2) Base Case Operating Activities A$m (0.3) (0.9) Exchange Rate +10% Exchange Rate -10% Property, Plant & Equip. A$m (0.3) (0.2) (71.2) (14.2) Gold Price +10% Exploration and Devel. A$m (5.0) (9.7) (8.0) (6.0) Gold Price -10% Investments A$m (10.9) Copper Price +10% Investment Activities A$m (16.2) (9.9) (79.2) (20.2) Copper Price -10% Operating Costs +10% Repayment of Borrow ings A$m Operating Costs -10% Equity A$m *N.B. NPAT, EPS, CFPS forecasts are for FY2011 Dividends Paid A$m Financing Activities A$m Share Price Valuation (NAV) Est. $m Est. $/share Net Cashflow A$m (10.3) 2.3 Hera & Nymagee Exploration Ratio Analysis Unit FY2010A FY2011F FY2012F FY2013F Cash Forw ards Cashflow Per Share A (0.6) (0.8) (1.1) 0.7 Corporate Overheads (9.6) (0.038) Cashflow Multiple X (92.9) (76.2) (53.5) 81.8 Total Debt Earnings Per Share A (1.4) (0.8) (1.9) (2.9) Tax Losses Price to Earnings Ratio X (43.1) (73.9) (31.1) (20.0) Options & Other Equity Dividends Per Share A Total Dividend Yield % Net Debt / Equity % (0.3) na Valuation at Spot Interest Cover X 9.4 na na - Return on Equity % na na na na (AUDUSD: Au:US$1,531/oz Ag: US$38.30/oz Zn: US$1.02/lb Cu: US$4.17/lb) Analyst: Mike Millikan Phone: Last Updated: 01/06/2011 Sources: IRESS, Company Information, Hartleys Research Page 2 of 7

3 Hartleys Limited YTC Resources Limited 1 June 2011 Fig. 1: Project Locations and Regional Deposits(LHS), Hera Long Section (RHS) The Hera and Nymagee projects are located ~100km southeast of Cobar in NSW. The Nymagee copper mine was mined between 1880 and 1917 down to a depth of 250m, producing 422kt of ore at a grade of 5.8% Cu. The mine is only 5km from Hera. Since the mine closed, the deposit has only seen limited modern exploration. Fig. 2: Nymagee Long Section (LHS), Cross Section (RHS) YTC is drilling out the deposit underneath the previous workings with a view to generating a sufficient size resource to enable the recommencement of mining at Nymagee to supplement the ore from Hera. As part of the DFS, the Company is designing the treatment circuit so as to be able to treat the Nymagee high grade copper ore with the Hera gold and base metals ore. With the two separate mines, the Company should be able to utilise a larger plant enabling higher copper output, as well as lower treatment costs. Drilling to date has identified excellent grades and widths of copper, with the high grade (+3% Cu) mineralisation appearing to be contained within sub-vertical pipes within the overall ore body. The drilling has confirmed that the mineralisation in the Nymagee Main lode has a consistent strike of at least 300m and remains open at depth. Page 3 of 7

4 Hartleys Limited YTC Resources Limited 1 June 2011 Fig. 3: CSA Cross Section (LHS), Nymagee Cross Section (RHS) Two new copper lodes discovered: 3.7 % Cu from 324m 3.75 % Cu from 471m High-grade lodes in the footwall is consistent with the world-class CSA Mine The CSA mine has yielded over 1.5Mt of copper, and has a vertical extent of over 1.8km. The Company believes that Nymagee has a number of similarities to the CSA deposit such as the lower grade halo around and above the massive sulphide mineralisation, the sub-vertical orientation of the lodes, the large and small scale zoning of the lodes, as well as the mineral assemblages of the lodes. Fig. 4: Nymagee Shallow Targets Drilling (<250m) in the upper parts of the historic mine continues to intersect strong Pb-Zn-Ag mineralisation with the potential to form a substantial target outside the main copper resource. RC drilling has discovered shallow Cu mineralisation in the northern and southern ends of the Nymagee mineralised system. Approvals have been received for deeper drill holes beneath the main Nymagee Cu system and approvals for the shallow Cu mineralised targets are pending. YTC expects to have 3 rigs active in the coming weeks. Page 4 of 7

5 HARTLEYS RESEARCH COVERAGE LIST Hartleys Research Coverage Hartleys Hartleys Name Ticker Last M. CAP Status Research Name Ticker Last M. CAP Status Research Resources Gold Price* (A$m) Recommendation Price* (A$m) Recommendation Oil & Gas Page 5 of 7 Conventional Oil & Gas 1. Intrepid Mines Limited IAU Explorer Speculative Buy 1. Woodside Petroleum Ltd WPL ,613 Major Buy 2. Beadell Resources Limited BDR Developer Accumulate 2. Nexus Energy Ltd NXS Developer / Explorer Speculative Buy 3. Gold One International Limited GDO Producer No Rating 3. Tap Oil Ltd TAP Producer / Explorer Buy 4. Integra Mining Limited IGR Producer Speculative Buy 4. Carnarvon Petroleum Ltd CVN Producer / Explorer Accumulate 5. Silver Lake Resources Limited SLR Producer Buy 5. FAR Ltd FAR Explorer / Producer Speculative Buy 6. Catalpa Resources Limited CAH Producer Buy 6. Otto Energy Ltd OEL Explorer / Producer Buy 7. Tanami Gold NL TAM Producer Speculative Buy 7. Cooper Energy Ltd COE Producer / Explorer Buy 8. Focus Minerals Ltd FML Producer Buy 8. Amadeus Energy Ltd AMU Producer / Explorer Speculative Buy 9. PMI Gold Corporation Limited PVM Developer Speculative Buy 9. Hawkley Oil and Gas Ltd HOG Producer / Explorer Buy 10. YTC Resources Limited YTC Developer Speculative Buy 10. WHL Energy Ltd WHN Explorer / Producer Speculative Buy 11. Papillon Resources Limited PIR Explorer Speculative Buy 11. Sun Resources NL SUR Explorer / Producer Hold 12. Ausquest Limited AQD Explorer Speculative Buy 13. Cortona Resources Limited CRC Developer Speculative Buy 1. Aurora Oil and Gas Ltd AUT ,150 Producer / Developer Reduce 14. Emmerson Resources Limited ERM Explorer Speculative Buy 2. Samson Oil & Gas Ltd SSN Developer / Producer Buy 15. Canyon Resources Limited CAY Explorer Speculative Buy 3. Oilex Ltd OEX Explorer / Producer Speculative Buy 16. Southern Gold Limited SAU Explorer Speculative Buy 4. European Gas Ltd EPG Producer / Explorer Speculative Buy 17. Geopacific Resources NL GPR Explorer Speculative Buy 5. Strike Energy Ltd STX Explorer / Producer Buy Iron Ore 6. Entek Energy Ltd ETE Producer / Explorer Speculative Buy 18. Atlas Iron Limited AGO ,978 Producer Buy Sub-Total 38, Centaurus Metals Ltd CTM Explorer Speculative Buy Industrials Coal Resource Services - Capital Intensive 20. Riversdale Mining Limited RIV ,203 Developer No Rating 1. Ausdrill Limited ASL Contract Drilling Buy Base Metals 2. NRW Holdings Ltd NWH Contract mining Accumulate 21. Independence Group NL IGO ,191 Gold, Ni, Zn, Cu Buy 3. Mermaid Marine Ltd MRM Oil & Gas Services Accumulate 22. Aviva Corporation Limited AVA Producer/Explorer Speculative Buy 4. Fleetw ood Corporation FWD Accomodation Hold Other metals 5. Matrix Composites & MCE Oil & Gas Services Buy 23. Kasbah Resources Limited KAS Tin Developer Buy 6. Engineering Imdex Ltd Limited IMD Drilling Supplies Buy 24. Shaw River Resources Limited SRR Manganese: Speculative Buy 7. Macmahon Holdings Limited MAH Contract mining Neutral 25. Hazelw ood Resources Ltd HAZ Tungsten Explorer/Developer Speculative Buy 8. MACA Ltd MLD Contract mining Buy Uranium 9. Pacific Energy Ltd PEA Remote Pow er Buy 26. Peninsula Energy Ltd PEN Developer Buy 10. Swick Mining Services Ltd SWK Contract Drilling Speculative Buy 27. Impact Minerals Limited IPT Explorer Speculative Buy Resource Services - Labour Intensive Source: IRESS, Hartleys Research. * 1 Jun 2011 Non Conventional Oil & Gas Sub-Total 10, Monadelphous Group Limited MND ,681 Construction Buy 12. Decmil Group Limited DCG Construction Buy 13. Lycopodium Limited LYL Engineer. & Constr. Accumulate 14. RCR Tomlinson Ltd RCR Engineer. & Constr. Buy 15. LogiCamms Limited LCM Engineer. & Constr. Speculative Buy 16. VDM Group Limited VMG Engineer. & Constr. Speculative Buy Other Industrial Companies 17. Seven West Media Limited SWM ,406 Media Accumulate 18. Austal Limited ASB Civil and Military Buy 19. iinet Limited IIN Telecommunications Vessels Buy 20. Cash Converters Internat. CCV Unsecured Finance Neutral 21. Limited Amcom Telecommunications AMM Telecommunications Buy 22. Limited RedHill Education Ltd RDH 'For profit' education Neutral Sub-Total 12, GRAND TOTAL 61,643

6 HARTLEYS CORPORATE DIRECTORY Research Trent Barnett Head of Research Mike Millikan Resources Analyst David Wall Energy Analyst Peter Gray Analyst Janine Bell Research Assistant Corporate Finance Grey Egerton- Head of Corporate Finance Warburton Richard Simpson Director - Corporate Finance Paul Fryer Director - Corporate Finance Dale Bryan Director - Corporate Finance Ben Wale Senior Manager - Corporate Finance Ben Crossing Senior Manager Corporate Finance Stephen Kite Senior Manager Corporate Finance Scott Weir Corporate Finance Exec Registered Office Level 6, 141 St Georges Tce Perth WA 6000 Australia Postal Address GPO Box 2777 Perth WA 6001 Australia Contact Details Telephone: Facsimile: Website: [email protected] Note: personal addresses of company employees are structured in the following manner: [email protected] Hartleys Recommendation Categories Buy Accumulate Neutral Reduce / Take profits Sell Share price appreciation anticipated. Share price appreciation anticipated but the risk/reward is not as attractive as a Buy. Alternatively, for the share price to rise it may be contingent on the outcome of an uncertain or distant event. Analyst will often indicate a price level at which it may become a Buy. Take no action. Upside & downside risk/reward is evenly balanced. There is unlikely to be further gains over the investment time horizon but there is a possibility of some price weakness over that period. Significant price depreciation anticipated. Institutional Sales Carrick Ryan Justin Stewart Simon van den Berg Steven Boyce Nick Wheeler Wealth Management Nicola Bond Bradley Booth Adrian Brant Nathan Bray Sven Burrell Simon Casey Tony Chien Travis Clark David Cross Nicholas Draper John Featherby Ben Fleay John Georgiades John Goodlad Andrew Gribble David Hainsworth Neil Inglis Murray Jacob Gavin Lehmann Shane Lehmann Steven Loxley Andrew Macnaughtan Christian Marriott Scott Metcalf David Michael Damir Mikulic Nicole Morcombe Jamie Moullin Chris Munro Michael Munro Ian Parker Ian Plowman Margaret Radici Charlie Ransom (CEO) Elliott Rowton Conlie Salvemini David Smyth Greg Soudure Sonya Soudure Dirk Vanderstruyf Alex Wallis Marlene White Samuel Williams No Rating Speculative Buy No recommendation. Share price could be volatile. While it is anticipated that, on a risk/reward basis, an investment is attractive, there is at least one identifiable risk that has a meaningful possibility of occurring, which, if it did occur, could lead to significant share price reduction. Consequently, the investment is considered high risk. Page 6 of 7

7 Disclaimer/Disclosure The author of this publication, Hartleys Limited ABN ( Hartleys ), its Directors and their Associates from time to time may hold shares in the security/securities mentioned in this Research document and therefore may benefit from any increase in the price of those securities. Hartleys and its Advisers may earn brokerage, fees, commissions, other benefits or advantages as a result of a transaction arising from any advice mentioned in publications to clients. Hartleys has completed a capital raising in the past 12 months for YTC Resources Limited for which it has earned fees. Hartleys has also provided corporate advice within the past 12 months and continues to provide corporate advice to YTC for which it has earned fees and continues to earn fees. Any financial product advice contained in this document is unsolicited general information only. Do not act on this advice without first consulting your investment adviser to determine whether the advice is appropriate for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Hartleys believes that any information or advice (including any financial product advice) contained in this document is accurate when issued. Hartleys however, does not warrant its accuracy or reliability. Hartleys, its officers, agents and employees exclude all liability whatsoever, in negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage relating to this document to the full extent permitted by law. Page 7 of 7