California Low Carbon Fuel Standard: Opportunities and Obstacles. Provided to:

Transcription

1 California Low Carbon Fuel Standard: Opportunities and Obstacles Provided to: October 10, 2013 Gregory Staiti Director, Energy Compliance Services Weaver and Tidwell, L.L.P.

2 Overview Program Basics Annual Carbon Intensity (CI) Standards Credits / Deficits Reporting and Registration Regulatory and Legal Update Opportunities Credit generation Credit demand / price escalation Parallel programs Obstacles Rudimentary credit transfer system Enforcement / oversight Credit validation 1

3 Why Do We Care It s the law of the land (in California) California historically is on the leading edge of environmental regulations Possible federal LCFS to succeed or replace for RFS2? Similar initiatives in other states / provinces Bottom line impacts: CI credits have been / will be monetized $76-to-$77 per MT CI credits (OPIS Oct 8, 2013) 2

4 Program Basics LCFS Compliance Obligations for Diesel and its Substitutes (Source: 17 CCR 95482, Table 2) Year Annual CI Standard * *

5 Program Basics Compliance obligation is conceptually simple: Fuel CI > annual standard = compliance deficit Fuel CI < annual standard = compliance credit The devil is in the details! Obligations (and benefits) accrue to the regulated party Applicable to transportation fuel ; includes: California RFG (including CARBOB) California Diesel Fossil- or biogas-based CNG or LNG Electricity (used as vehicular fuel) Denatured fuel ethanol Neat biomass-based diesel But not: aircraft, military, racing, ocean-going vessel or certain locomotive applications 4

6 Program Basics Carbon Intensity: rating based on well-to-wheels analysis of GHG emissions Factors include: Feedstock cultivation/harvesting Production processes Energy inputs (process heat, electricity consumed) Transportation emissions Combustion emissions Indirect land use changes Default CI values established for variety of fuel pathways Must use these values for CARBOB and diesel, and for other fuels that closely correspond to the fuel pathway described in the LCFS Lookup Tables Procedures for modifying or adopting new pathways if fuel does not closely correspond to an established pathway 5

7 Program Basics Selected CI Values for Diesel and Certain Substitutes Fuel Path ID Description Diesel ULSD001 ULSD based on avg crude oil delivered to CA refineries CI Value (gco2e/mj) (Source: 95486(b) Table 7) Biodiesel BIOD001 Conversion of Midwest soybeans Biodiesel BIOD004 Conversion UCO in Midwest to FAME biodiesel Biodiesel BIOD006 Conversion of North American canola to FAME biodiesel Biodiesel BIOD007 Conversion of corn oil, from DG pre-drying 4.00 Biodiesel BIOD008 Conversion of U.S. mixed animal fats biodiesel RD RNWD001 Conversion of Midwest soybeans RD RNWD002 Conversion of tallow

8 Program Basics Quarterly and Annual Reporting Submission via LCFS Reporting Tool (LRT) LRT account is the only required registration Upload generation/transaction information each quarter Facility Registration Voluntary, but difficult to generate credits without it Two key components: Identify fuel CI pathway(s) for product(s) produced CARB will verify; be prepared to provide supporting documentation Identify physical pathway for product(s) produced Maps showing fuel entry into CA Documentation supporting entry (contracts; B/Ls) 7

9 Regulatory and Legal Update Amendments Package Expected this Fall. May include: Cost Containment Options one or more of the following: Credit Window: CARB would sell credits at pre-set price to RPs Funds would be distributed to parties who use or produce low CI fuels Reinvestment: Capital projects that lower CI in lieu of buying credits Credit Multiplier: Favored low-ci fuels would earn extra credits Credit Clearance: Window for buying credits pledged by 3 rd parties, would allow RP to carry deficit > 10% Pre-established fines for non-compliance Online Credit Transfer System (CBTS) Reporting / PTD Changes Mandatory reporting of production facility otherwise, default (punitive) CI Effectively mandates facility registration, tracking of volumes by origin ILUC? 8

10 Regulatory and Legal Update Legal issues are (for the near-term) resolved Ninth Circuit decision last month largely upheld the program s constitutionality Reversed lower court findings that the program is facially discriminatory against out-of-state commerce and impermissibly regulates out-of-state commerce Remanded to lower court to apply additional tests of constitutionality Case will continue, but this is a victory for CARB 9

11 Opportunities Credit Generation Biodiesel and renewable diesel are credit eligible Generally better credit per gallon return than credit-eligible ethanol pathways New pathways under consideration by CARB Facilities can apply for unique pathway(s) if they outperform a comparable CARB default pathway or are materially different Credit Price Escalation Prices were ~$15-20 per MT in early December Now above $75 per MT Growing appreciation of future costs to comply Credits do not expire today s surplus is tomorrow s necessity 10

12 Opportunities 2,500, Deficit Obligations and Credit Opportunities for Different Fuel Types* CARBOB (99.18) 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 1,915, ,969 1,525,732 1,331,592 1,284, , ,429 Corn Ethanol (81.75) Corn Ethanol (90.1) CARB Diesel (98.03) 500, , ,150 Midwest Soy Biodiesel (83.25) 0 Midwest Soy Renewable Diesel (82.16) (500,000) (325,498) CA UCO Biodiesel (with cooking) (15.84) (1,000,000) (1,500,000) *Assumptions billion gasoline demand (E10) billion diesel demand (B5) Midwest UCO Biodiesel (with cooking) (18.72) Corn Oil Biodiesel (4) (2,000,000) (1,903,037) Per 2012 CA BOE Tax Figures U.S. Tallow (FAME) Biodiesel (40.18) (2,500,000) U.S. Tallow - Renewable Diesel (high energy) (39.33) 11

13 Opportunities 2,500, Deficit Obligations and Credit Opportunities for Different Fuel Types* 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 (500,000) (1,000,000) (1,500,000) (2,000,000) (2,500,000) (3,000,000) (2,667,372) 1,857, ,057 (488,247) 218, ,115 *Assumptions 1,517,697 1,323,558 1,276, , , billion gasoline demand (E10) billion diesel demand (B5) Per 2012 CA BOE Tax Figures CARBOB (99.18) Corn Ethanol (81.75) Corn Ethanol (90.1) CARB Diesel (98.03) Midwest Soy Biodiesel (83.25) Midwest Soy Renewable Diesel (82.16) CA UCO Biodiesel (with cooking) (15.84) Midwest UCO Biodiesel (with cooking) (18.72) Corn Oil Biodiesel (4) U.S. Tallow (FAME) Biodiesel (40.18) U.S. Tallow - Renewable Diesel (high energy) (39.33) 12

14 Opportunities LCFS developments at state / province level Oregon: implemented Phase 1 of their LCFS program Dec 2012 British Columbia Renewables mandates for gasoline and diesel CI targets less favorable to ethanol and biodiesel Northeast States: coordinating LCFS development via NESCAUM Possibility of federal action? 13

15 Obstacles Enforcement / Oversight No attest audit requirement Recent changes open up participation to out-of-state entities, including: Non-California producers of ethanol and biomass-based diesel Entities between the non-california producer and the importer into California Can CARB effectively police this program (particularly out-of-state participants)? Biofuel exports out of California No express requirement for exporter to retire credits 14

16 Obstacles Credit validation Probability of industry-lead push for credit due diligence LCFS QAPs focus on different issues from RFS QAPs Production consistent with registered CI value(s) Tracking commingled feedstocks/volumes Physical pathway verification Verifying no duplicative credit generation Who will bear the cost? Where s the benefit? Will CARB relax penalties for verified credits? 15

17 Political challenges Obstacles WSPA s legislative agenda targets LCFS Predict refiner cost increase >$2.50 per gallon by through combination of LCFS and Cap-and-Trade Arguments parallel debate at the national level against RFS While AB32 still enjoys broad-based support in Sacramento, biofuel interests may need to step up advocacy 16

18 Questions? Thank you for your time and attention. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me: Greg Staiti Director, Energy Compliance Services Weaver LLP D: M: E: 17