CRIME IN MOBILE HOME COMMUNITIES IN DURHAM, NC

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1 1 CRIME IN MOBILE HOME COMMUNITIES IN DURHAM, NC INTRODUCTION: Mobile home units and trailers are often perceived as ugly in today s society, and the people who live there have been accused of not paying their fair share of taxes. There are also many negative stereotypes associated with being poor, such as higher crime rates, but there is very little research on mobile home communities and virtually no research on crime within mobile home communities. This research explores the relationship between crime and the existence of mobile home communities in the city of Durham, North Carolina. Through the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and publically available crime data, I provide an outline of the crime rates in select mobile home communities in Durham and explain why it appears that incidents of crime are smaller in them. Crime near mobile home communities appears to be much lower than crime near nonmobile home communities in Durham, NC. Taking into account the fact that mobile home communities tend to be located in the outskirts of Durham, it may be the case that mobile home communities have less crime because crime tends to be focused in the center of the city. This means that if a mobile home community which currently has less crime were to be relocated to the center of the city, its crime rate might increase to match or even exceed the area around it. Further economic analysis in a different location is necessary to determine whether crime rate is lower in mobile home communities, because there are no centrally located mobile home communities in Durham, NC. CURRENT MOBILE HOME RESEARCH: A mobile home community can be defined as a multiunit community of prefabricated housing units. This places them somewhere in between apartment buildings and traditional singlefamily homes (Becker). Mobile homes began to appear in the United States in the 1920 s and 1930 s and became more popular when the government installed them during World War II for the use of temporary employees. After World War II, the typical resident of a mobile home unit shifted from temporary mobile workers to younger, less educated individuals. Today, there are at least 8.8 million mobile homes in the United States. This accounts for 8.4% of all housing units (McCarty).

2 2 There are many negative stereotypes associated with living in a mobile home park that are similar to those associated with being poor, but 8.8 million families still choose to live in one. The main benefit to living in a mobile home park is that it provides an affordable housing option. They are lower cost with more square footage, and according to the 2011 American Housing Survey (AHS), 25% fewer mobile home owners have a mortgage than do traditional homeowners. Since the median income of a mobile home owner is $30,000 less than a traditional homeowner and they have fewer mortgages, it seems likely that mobile homeowners finance the purchase of a mobile home through personal property or chattel loans (Becker). This means that mobile home units are cheaper and can be financed in different ways than the traditional home. Some of the other benefits for the mobile homeowner include the ability to relocate, the feeling of homeownership that is not felt with renting an apartment, and the community which the mobile home is located in (although, as with any form of housing, this could be a negative depending on the community). The stereotype associated with mobile home parks that I am going to examine is that they are associated with higher crime rates. There is an abundance of research that affirms a statistical correlation between crime and poverty (Blau, Kelly, and Ludwig to name a few), but hardly any on mobile home parks. Since mobile home parks are more affordable and tend to house individuals with a lower median income, the logic follows that there is or may also be a statistical correlation between crime and mobile home parks. It is possible however, that mobile home communities have lower or comparable incidents of crime. Perhaps individuals in mobile home communities are different (have different beliefs or personalities) than those of similar socio-economic status who do not live in a mobile home community; or that mobile home parks create a community that leads to residents being more familiar with each other and are therefore more likely to report and deter suspicious activity on behalf of their neighbors. It could also be that there are fewer entrances into a mobile home community and that this deters criminals. Little academic research exists regarding criminal activity with relation to mobile home parks, and though it may be difficult to understand the amount of safety benefit or dis-benefit of living in or near a mobile home community, it is beneficial to look at recent criminal activity in Durham to better understand the situation of crime in Durham mobile home communities. CRIMINAL ACTIVITY IN DURHAM:

3 3 According to City Data, both violent crime (murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) and property crime (burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft) in Durham have steadily decreased from Furthermore, The Herald Sun reports a 20% decrease in crime from The City Data statistics can be found in figure 1 in the appendix. Even though property crime accounts for the majority of all reported crime in Durham at about 80% (shown for data in 2012 in a pie chart as figure 2 in the appendix), property crime is at its lowest level in 2012 and since 2002 has decreased by 44%. This is mainly due to the decrease in larceny and burglary and can be seen in the statistics reported in the appendix in figure 1. I will be analyzing the number of crimes within a one mile radius of mobile home communities and include a map of where crimes have occurred in the past two years. On this map, I will highlight the locations of mobile home communities to provide a visual that will help determine whether more crime occurs near mobile home communities in Durham, NC. METHODOLOGY: Using Google Maps, I began by identifying 13 mobile home communities in Durham. I was able to find mobile home communities from four different zip codes: 27703, 27704, 27705, and The majority of mobile home communities were located in the northwest region of Durham in the zip code and therefore had overlapping sets of data. I used a random number generator to select half of them for analysis, but still include the location of the others on the map in figure 4 in the appendix. I then used both the Durham Police Department and their Geographical Information Systems (GIS) software, and Busted Maps to locate each of the 13 mobile home communities and pinpoint any property crime that had occurred within a mile of it in the last five years. By using multiple resources, I had hoped to find more accurate data, but unfortunately the data from 2012 and 2013 seemed to be inconsistent with the City Data I mentioned earlier. City Data says that crime has consistently decreased in Durham for the past ten years, but GIS and Busted Maps show lower crime levels before 2012, a spike in crime in 2012, and a 10% decrease thereafter. This leads me to believe that there is either insufficient crime data in GIS and Busted Maps in Durham before 2012, or that there is very little crime in the outskirts of Durham where a majority of the mobile home communities are located. Figure 3 in the appendix shows the

4 4 crime data from , figure 4 in the appendix shows a crime map of Durham from , and figure 5 shows the 13 mobile home communities assessed, and a number of other mobile home communities in Durham. This approach is not ideal because if fails to show changes over time (due to using only data from the last two years), it only provides information about crime near a mobile home community as opposed to within one (which means data gathered for non-mobile home communities that are also on the outskirts of the city would tend to almost completely overlap with data for mobile home communities; this would lead to mobile home communities and non-mobile home communities having the same data and provide no insight about safety differences), and it lacks data from a mobile home community in the center of the city where most of the crime is located. With this being said, I chose not to find data from non-mobile home communities and instead include a crime map and a map with the location of mobile home communities drawn on it. The table of crime near mobile home communities accompanied by the crime map and map of mobile home communities provide valuable information about crime near mobile home communities in Durham, NC. FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS The data is summarized in the appendix in figure 3. In total, there were 74 property crimes committed within a mile of the 13 selected mobile home communities. There was a 10% decrease in crime in the selected communities from , and higher crime on average in the zip code which has mobile home communities closest to the center of the city. The 74 property crimes committed within the selected communities reflect less than 1% of the total crime committed in Durham. This shows that crime is not evenly dispersed throughout Durham and should not necessarily be attributed to mobile homes being safer; they may just not be located in crime dense regions of the city (such as in the center). I did not analyze data for Durham communities that were not near a mobile home community, because they tend to be located in the center of the city or included in the data already generated for mobile home communities. This means that most of the data I could gather for nonmobile home communities would be likely to reflect their center locations instead of the fact that it is a non-mobile home community, or that the data would appear to be the same for mobile home communities and non-mobile home communities.

5 5 Figure 4 in the appendix shows the trend of higher crime toward the center of the city, figure 5 highlights the location of the selected mobile home communities and other mobile home communities in Durham. It is clear that mobile home communities form a ring around Durham and that much of the crime is within that ring. This tells us that it is safer to live in one of the mapped mobile home communities in Durham if the alternative is somewhere in the center of the city; but it is not necessarily safer to live in a mobile home community if the alternative living option is also in the outskirts of the city. In other cities it may be possible to find a mobile home community located in the center of the city where crime rates appear to be higher, and this data would tell us nothing about whether that mobile home community located in the center of the city is safer than alternative housing options also located in the center of the city. DISCUSSION: The data I ve gathered tells us that mobile home communities in Durham are much safer than the average location in Durham, but correlation does not equal causality and this data (figure 3 in the appendix), does not include other variables such as where the mobile home is located. The data in figure 3 shows crime within a mile of the listed mobile home community. This makes it difficult to compare non-mobile home communities that are also on the outskirts of the city because the data already encompasses such a large area and the two different communities would overlap. It is also difficult to compare non-mobile home communities that are nearby but in the center of the city because being in the center of the city seems to already be a large factor in contributing to higher crime. While figure 3 tells us nothing about the safety of mobile homes in general, it does provide insight into the fact that living in a mobile home community is far less of a predictor of safety than where you live in that city. If you re looking for a safe home above all other factors, do not look for one in the center of the city; a mobile home community on the outskirts of the city appears to be safer than renting an apartment or buying a home in the center. Further economic analysis is needed in a different city to be able to say whether mobile home communities themselves are safer or not. It could be that because residents in a mobile home park live closer together, form a tight-knit community and are therefore more likely to report and deter suspicious activity on behalf of their neighbors. It could also be that those living in a mobile

6 6 home community are self-selecting and seek the benefits and style of living that is associated with living in a mobile home community. With all the negative stereotypes about mobile home living, this may at first seem unlikely, but perhaps for those of a lower socio-economic status, living in a mobile home is very desirable compared to renting on a low income street or in the center of a city. In some cases, mobile home communities are even in the better school district or may seem more family oriented than other options and this could lead to the aforementioned self-seeking behavior. Mobile home communities also tend to have minimal entrances which could deter criminals. It is extremely valuable for individuals to understand the safety consequences of where they decide to live, and since there are 8.8 million mobile homes in the United States, and an increasingly limited selection of affordable housing options, more research on the safety in mobile home communities is necessary. Durham is not the target city for looking at mobile home community safety because there are no mobile home units in the center of the city and there is not enough data on crime in the outer ring of the city. It is also likely that not all crime is reported within a mobile home community because cops are not required to do regular patrols since the land is owned and rented out by an individual. The ideal research would involve an analysis in a city with more mobile home communities, with each individual mobile home community providing data for crimes. Perhaps neighborhood polls of how safe individuals feel could prove to be useful as well. PUBLIC POLICY: The responsible public policy strategist should continue to use GIS data to better understand spatial differences related to mobile home communities and other spatial features. Public policy should also include further research in other cities in North Carolina, and work with specific mobile home communities on identifying the types and rates of crime and comparing it to areas of similar socio-economic status. After analyzing Durham, it is also clear that in order to compare crime in mobile home communities to non-mobile home communities, they must be of similar distance to the center of the city, and perhaps even next door to one another. Crime analysis is very important and the ultimate goal is to perform better policing and reduce crime.

7 7 APPENDIX: Type Murders Rapes Robberies Assaults ,011 Burglaries 3,088 3,528 3,249 3,157 3,098 3,490 3,643 3,652 3,874 3,284 Thefts 8,483 9,027 8,040 7,944 7,617 7,584 7,366 6,987 6,768 6,291 Auto Thefts 1,080 1, , Arson Crime Rate Figure 1: A table taken from City Data on crime in Durham, NC. Figure 2: Crime breakdown for Durham in 2012 taken from City Data

8 8 Name Zip Code and 2013 Maple Ridge Park Euglina Junction Mobile Home Park Fuquay Mobile Home Park Mineral Springs Village Stonegate Eno Mobile Home Park Green Valley Mobile Home Park Whispering Pines Birchwood Mobile Home Park Wood Mobile Home Park Cedar Terrace Mobile Home Park Gorman Village Munns Mobile Home Park Total Crime Figure 3: A table of select mobile home parks, their zip codes, and the number of crimes committed in 2012 and Figure 4: A map of crime in Durham using GIS software

9 9 Figure 5: A map of mobile homes in Durham, NC reveals that the majority of them are in the Northern region of Durham. When compared to figure 4, it is apparent that mobile homes fall outside of the crime heavy region.

10 10 REFERENCES: Becker, Charles. "The Price of Tornado Proofing: A Hedonic Model for Pricing Manufactured Homes. "Crime Rate in Durham, North Carolina (NC): murders, rapes, robberies, assaults, burglaries, thefts, auto thefts, arson, law enforcement employees, police officers, crime map." City Data. N.p., n.d. Web. 20 Mar < Durham Crime Map, retrieved on Mar 20, 2014 from bustedmaps.com Durham Police Department. Crime Mapper Online Software. Durham, Map of Durham, retrieved on Mar 20, 2014 from website McCarty, William. "Trailers and Trouble? An Examination of Crime in Mobile Home Communities." Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and Research (2010): Web. 20 Mar < Platt, Wes. "Sheriff Reports Crime Decrease in Unincorporated Durham." Herald Sun. 12 JAN 2014: n. page. Web. 20 Mar