Divorce in Europe: Patterns, consequences, policies

Transcription

1 Divorce in Europe: Patterns, consequences, policies Juho Härkönen Stockholm University Demography Unit Swedish Institute for Social Research

2 Contents Trends in divorce in Europe Cross-national Population sub-groups (education) Consequences Effects on adults Effects on children (Consequences of living in high-divorce societies) Policies

3 I Trends

4 Crude divorce rates, ,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 GER FR UK SWE SP POL Source: Council of Europe (2004)

5 Crude divorce rates, ,5 2 1,5 1 GER SWE IT 0, Source: Eurostat (2011)

6 Crude divorce rates, ,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 SP POL PRT 0, Source: Eurostat (2011)

7 Crude divorce rates, ,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 UK FR EST 1 0, Source: Eurostat (2011)

8 Summing up recent trends The long-term trend has been of increasing divorce (and separation from cohabs) In some countries, divorce rates seem to have slowly leveled off or even decreased In other countries, the upward trend still ongoing Many families now formed outside marriage; less accurate information on their stability

9 Heterogeneous trends Population groups differen in divorce risks and divorce trends Recently, particular interest in divorce patterns and trends by (female) education In some countries highly educated divorce more In others, no gradient or less educated divorce more Generally, divorce on the increase particularly among the less educated

10 Heterogeneous trends Population groups differen in divorce risks and divorce trends Recently, particular interest in divorce patterns and trends by (female) education In some countries highly educated divorce more In others, no gradient or less educated divorce more Generally, divorce on the increase particularly among the less educated

11 Heterogeneous trends Population groups differen in divorce risks and divorce trends Recently, particular interest in divorce patterns and trends by (female) education In some countries highly educated divorce more In others, no gradient or less educated divorce more Generally, divorce on the increase particularly among the less educated

12 Heterogeneous trends Population groups differen in divorce risks and divorce trends Recently, particular interest in divorce patterns and trends by (female) education In some countries highly educated divorce more In others, no gradient or less educated divorce more Generally, divorce on the increase particularly among the less educated

13 Union dissolution in Sweden, odds ratios (reference: low educ in oldest cohort) 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 Low educ 1 0, Source: Härkönen & Dronkers(2006)

14 Union dissolution in Sweden, odds ratios (reference: low educ in oldest cohort) 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 Low educ Mid educ 1 0, Source: Härkönen & Dronkers(2006)

15 Union dissolution in Sweden, odds ratios (reference: low educ in oldest cohort) 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 Low educ Mid educ High educ 1 0, Source: Härkönen & Dronkers(2006)

16 % % % % Trends in single parenthood (% all mums) Great Britain Denmark Low Middle High Low Middle High West Germany Italy Low Middle High Low Middle High Source: Mannheim Eurobarometer Trend File, own calculations

17 II Consequences

18 Consequences for adults Divorcees have worse physical and psychological health Stronger for men? Maybe limited to physical health Divorce has negative monetary consequences for women Less so for men Large country variation Economic security and social support reduce the wellbeing effects of divorce

19 Consequences for kids In Europe, most single-parent households formed through parental divorce Children of divorce have More material well-being deficits Poorer schooling outcomes More problem behaviors and crime Poorer mental and physical health Less stable own relationships Weaker relationships with parents and grandparents

20 Consequences for kids Can be long-lasting (often stronger in short-run) No consistent gendered effects Effects can be stronger at early ages or around key life transitions No strong evidence that effects weakened over time Effects can also be positive: In general, very heterogeneous effects

21 Consequences for kids Proper material conditions can reduce the negative effects of divorce Parents own adjustment important Psychological well-being Parenting Kids relation to their parents Parents relations to one another Step-parenting can reduce material problems, effects on other well-being less clear

22 Consequences for kids research indicates that children function reasonably well after divorce if their standard of living does not decline dramatically, their resident mothers are psychologically well adjusted and engage in high-quality parenting, they maintain close ties to fathers, and their parents avoid conflict and engage in at least a minimal level of cooperation in the postdivorce years. - Paul Amato and Spencer James (2010), Family Science 1(1): 2-13

23 Are the effects causal? Does the fact that people who experienced divorce have poorer outcomes mean that divorce caused these? Hard to determine in absence of experiments Many studies suggest that at least partly yes Divorce should be seen as both a process and event A process that starts well before and ends well after the event itself Implications for our understanding and policy responses

24 Are the effects causal? Does the fact that people who experienced divorce have poorer outcomes mean that divorce caused these? Hard to determine in absence of experiments Many studies suggest that at least partly yes Divorce should be seen as both a process and event A process that starts well before and ends well after the event itself Implications for our understanding and policy responses

25 Strengthening of inequalities? Educational gradients in divorce and family change can strengthen the consequences of divorce Family change can become a new pathway through which intergenerational inequalities are reproduced Little research thus far, available evidence does not suggest major role for family structure for intergenerational reproduction of inequality

26 III Policies

27 Policy responses: Causes Tightening divorce laws possibly of limited effect Many families formed outside marriage Divorce laws also affect intact marriages (in good and bad) Counseling Can have positive effects

28 Policy responses: consequences Income transfers and employment support can ameliorate economic hardship due to divorce Can become especially important if class-gradients widen Do welfare policies increase divorce and single parenthood? Some evidence suggests that yes Welfare policies can also stabilize families by lowering economic strains in families

29 Policy responses: consequences Counseling can help with coping Co-parenting after divorce on the rise Good: remain contact with both parents Overall effects on child well-being not well-known; likely heterogeneous

30 Summary Divorce has increased or is increasing in European countries, but country differences prevail In many countries, especially among the least educated Divorce can create unwelcome turbulence that can have lasting effects Transfer- and employment focused policies can smoothen material consequences but likely to have limited effect on other (longer-term) outcomes

31 Thank you!

32 Standardized divorce rates, Sweden ,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0, Source: Andersson and Kolk (2011) Standardized for age, marriage duration parity, premarital childbearing, duration since 1st birth

33 Standardized divorce rates, Sweden ,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8? 0,6 0,4 0, Source: Andersson and Kolk (2011) Standardized for age, marriage duration parity, premarital childbearing, duration since 1st birth