Product and Distribution Update: Looking Beyond the Headlines

Transcription

1 HIGHLIGHTS OF A WEB SEMINAR FOR SEI CLIENTS Product and Distribution Update: Looking Beyond the Headlines Mutual funds, ETFs, managed accounts and alternatives all of these product categories enjoyed robust growth last year. But managers who want a real handle on opportunity need to consider the many stories behind those headlines. Those include continuing fragmentation, patterns of concentration, new products, and an accent on product innovation. This may also be the year when platformitization enters every investment manager s lexicon. SEI PANELIST SEI KNOWLEDGE PARTNERSHIP Mutual Funds: Robust Growth, Shifting Opportunity Despite strong challenges from other product packages, mutual funds remain the industry s dominant investment vehicle. The good news is that overall assets under management and net flows are at an all-time high, and about half of all complexes are enjoying positive net inflows (see Exhibit 1). A closer look reveals: Increased concentration of flows. Fewer than half of all fund portfolios, distinctly separate from fund complexes, had positive net flows in This may reflect a broader shift whereby intermediaries and investors are no longer buying fund complexes so much as selecting specific strategies within them. As this trend takes hold, fund complexes may see positive flows concentrated in relatively fewer of their portfolios. Exhibit 1: Mutual Fund Assets and Net Flows 1 Size is no guarantee of success. When the top 25 organizations are ranked in terms of 2006 net flows, we see complexes of all types and sizes. The three-year rankings are much the same, showing an eclectic group of winners with a variety of strategies, products, and distribution The SEI Knowledge Partnership is an ongoing source of action-oriented business intelligence and guidance for SEI s investment manager clients. It helps clients understand the issues that will shape future business conditions, keep abreast of changing best practices, and develop more competitive business strategies. The Partnership is an initiative of SEI s Investment Manager Services unit, which delivers operating solutions including fund accounting and administration, hedge fund services, and separate account services.

2 schemes. On the other hand, the list of lowest-ranking 25 organizations in terms of 2006 net flows is dominated by large, diversified complexes. It s clear that size and product breadth do not guarantee success. Rotation at the top. The top five complexes now account for some 43% of all mutual fund assets 3, but it s important to note that the winners list continues to rotate. Barclay s Global Investors for example, moved up from 229th in AUM in 1996 to number 5 in Dodge and Cox rose from 53rd to 9th place. Thinking about what is driving this concentration trend, it may be less a natural industry phenomenon than the result of a changing field of competitors. When we see some organizations making large gains and strong asset flows in areas with relatively fewer competitors, such as international investments, it s no surprise to see some increase in concentration. Overall mutual fund assets under management and net flows are at an all-time high, and about half of all complexes are enjoying positive net inflows. Shifting product demand. Flow data make three trends clear: A decided tilt toward the international and global category and away from domestic equity. As measured by portfolio count vs. flows, the world allocation category is in the highest demand relative to supply one indicator of an area where opportunity may lie. A rising level of interest in asset allocation funds and other outcome-oriented products. Prepackaged advice products in particular are taking off. Growth in alternative-style long-short funds, as investors continue to seek non-correlated alpha. While this category still accounts for a tiny percentage of overall mutual fund AUM, it is growing quickly and may represent one of the best areas of opportunity for small and boutique managers who are willing and able to adapt culturally. Exchange-Traded Products: A Surge of New Entrants The exchange-traded product market continues to set records for growth of assets and flows. ETF assets under management grew by 46% during 2006, reaching $423 billion as of the end of the year 4. It will be interesting to see how this fast-growing market shapes the industry, especially as new approaches such as actively-managed ETFs emerge. Historically, this market has been dominated by three key players: Barclay s Global Investors, which represented 70% of all flows and 55% of AUM in 2006, distantly followed by State Street and Bank of New York. Now we are seeing a surge in new players, new products, and new portfolio strategies (see Exhibit 2). Nearly 400 new funds were filed with the SEC in 2006 and another 63 in January of 2007 alone. Clearly, ETFs are already having a strong influence, and it will be interesting to see how this market shapes the industry, especially as new approaches such as activelymanaged ETFs emerge. Will ETFs become more prominent building blocks within portfolios? Will investors begin substituting them for active portfolios or use them as larger components of an investment mix? We are also likely to see regulatory impacts from the growth in new types of ETFs. Exhibit 2: Growth of Exchange Traded Funds and Products 2 In terms of the ways funds are priced and sold, we continue to see solid asset growth in no-load funds along with a modest increase in funds offering A-shares. The number of back-end load funds continues to fall. Product and Distribution Update: Looking Beyond the Headlines 2

3 Managed Accounts: Expansion Continues This market includes SMAs, mutual fund wrap-fee accounts, and unified managed accounts all those products involving management of an investment account for the client on a fee-only basis. The Unified Managed Account concept is gaining traction, with nearly 38,000 accounts and assets reaching $10.8 billion as of the second quarter of Continued overall growth. Managed accounts of all types continue to attract assets, with AUM rising to more than $1.5 trillion by mid Wirehouses continue to dominate the market with 70% of AUM, or $794 billion, although independent broker-dealers and third-party sponsors are gaining ground 6. Citigroup and Merrill Lynch have the largest presence with a combined market share of 41%. The top ten sponsors account for most of the assets. Manager concentrations are also high, especially in the SMA space, where the top ten managers represent 31% of total assets and the top 25 hold 45% of AUM. Emergence of the Unified Managed Account (UMA) 7. The UMA concept is gaining traction, with nearly 38,000 accounts and assets reaching $10.8 billion as of the second quarter of 2006; $9.1 billion of that was held in the Morgan Stanley Personal Portfolio Program. Approximately 81% of all UMA assets are held in separate accounts with the remainder in mutual funds and ETFs. Investment minimums and fees are being lowered, which will lead to wider acceptance and continued growth of these programs. Some managers are likely to exit the business, however, given already low margins and the introduction of model Exhibit 3: Growth in Direct-Strategy Hedge Funds and Funds of Funds 3 portfolios that could cut management fees by almost 30%. Alternatives: Into the Mainstream We at SEI have often described alternatives as the new face of active management. They continue to grow rapidly, with total hedge fund AUM approaching the $1.5 trillion mark (see Exhibit 3). Key trends include: Rising institutional flows. A growing share of hedge fund asset growth is coming from the institutional side, as pension plans increasingly add alternative products to their asset allocations. Despite speculation that they were losing momentum, flows to hedge funds of funds rebounded in 2006, bringing their assets under management to an all-time high of more than $105 billion. Continued proliferation of funds. Both direct-strategy funds and hedge fund of funds are growing in number, despite some speculation that hedge fund of funds were losing momentum. While flows to hedge fund of funds dipped from 2003 to 2005, they rebounded in 2006, bringing AUM to an all-time high of more than $105 billion. Signs of maturation and consolidation. New fund launches slowed in 2006, and over the last two years more than 1,400 funds were closed or liquidated in a shake-out of underperforming strategies (see Exhibit 4). Product proliferation. While macro strategies dominated the hedge fund industry back in 1990, today we see a growing variety of investment approaches. Still, the product landscape is dominated by the top three strategies: equity hedge, relative value arbitrage, and event driven. All in all, we believe hedge funds remain a major market opportunity as fund structures and strategies continue to evolve. Our traditional siloed view of the world is quickly becoming obsolete. Convergence is the reality shaping our future. Product and Distribution Update: Looking Beyond the Headlines 3

4 Thinking About Competitiveness Today Understanding these investment product trends helps managers think about the opportunities ahead. But it s equally important to consider broader trends that are reshaping the product distribution landscape: The era of convergence. Industry studies and media coverage tend to focus on product categories that are growing quickly and taking market share from others. But this 4 Exhibit 4: Hedge Funds Launched vs. Funds Liquidated dueling products perspective misses the critical point: the lines among customer segments, product categories, and packaging types are increasingly blurred. Our traditional siloed view of the world is quickly becoming obsolete. Convergence is the reality shaping our future. Looking beyond traditional boxes. In order to compete and innovate in a converging world, managers need to open up their thinking to a more investor-centric and intermediary-centric view. Rather than targeting product segments, managers need to engage in a more dynamic and strategic thought process, considering: Which pools of assets are most attractive? Which pools will continue to grow? Where is there a high level of demand relative to the number and strength of competitors? Which products are we best equipped to distribute in those pools? How well do our strengths and expertise fit what investors and intermediaries are seeking? In which market segments is there the greatest effective demand for our products? Within the traditional institutional pool, does it make sense to target corporate defined benefit plans, public plans, or endowments and foundations? Which is the best target in the institutional gatekeeper space, defined contribution plan alliances or variable annuity sponsors? In the individual market, are the best opportunities in the ultra high net worth, affluent, or emerging / mass affluent segment? Which distribution channels will enable us to reach those targeted segments? Is it best to go direct or to go through consultants, alliances, family offices, RIAs, or brokers? The answers will point managers to the best ways of packaging their investment expertise, whether it be as a mutual fund, ETF, SMA, or commingled fund. Packaging dictated by distribution channels. Ultimately, how an investment product is distributed will determine the best ways to package it. In the traditional institutional market, the best bet may be a separate account or a partnership. In the individual market it may be an ETF, mutual fund, or SMA. Packaging types such as mutual funds and separate accounts have long been described as business segments or channels in our industry. But these aren t channels; they are ways of packaging investment expertise. There is no such thing as an ETF or mutual fund or SMA channel because these packaging types are used in all investment pools and market segments (see Exhibit 5). Infrastructure demands. Once managers decide how to package their expertise for a given distribution channel, they must consider demands for customization and the related needs for operating technology and infrastructure. Platformitization of distribution. Open architecture has triumphed. But intermediaries now must do more than simply offer expanded product and manager choice. To differentiate their offerings, they need to add another layer of value with financial planning and asset allocation services. Power is shifting to intermediaries that build wealth management platforms providing one-stop shopping for a full range of products and services. These intermediaries are using institutional gatekeeper-type investment models and assessments to pick and choose the investment products they wish to offer. The effects are already being Product and Distribution Update: Looking Beyond the Headlines 4

5 seen in, for example, the declining number of funds per complex receiving positive net asset flows. The critical point is that while investors and intermediaries still want access to a variety of products, they will be cherry-picking the managers and products that best fit their models, as opposed to offering all the products a supplier provides. Given this and the trend toward bundling services for a single fee, pricing distinctions continue to fade and no-load funds continue to exhibit the fastest growth. A tilt toward outcomes. Overall, investor preferences are moving away from benchmarked, relative-return products and toward those with an absolute-return or outcome orientation. This means we can expect growing emphasis on asset allocation or lifestyle funds and other types of prepackaged investment advice products. The financial wellness bundle. More and more, investors are seeking to meet all their wealth management needs with a single bundle of products and services one going beyond investment performance to include tax and estate planning, insurance, and accounting. Those of us who manufacture investment products are now challenged to find ways of being embedded in this wealth management bundle. This process is driven by intermediaries based on financial goals, plans, and asset allocations specific to each client. This is the same trend that has spawned the Unified Managed Account, and it will continue to reshape the investment landscape. Exhibit 5: Investors and Channels Determine Product and Packaging Conclusion: Key Points to Keep in Mind The investment market remains fragmented with opportunities in all segments, but more and more investors and intermediaries will be focusing on investment outcomes and results rather than on relative performance and benchmarks. The product map continues to move away from accumulation-oriented vehicles to those aimed at capital preservation and retirement income. New market and product opportunities such as managed accounts will require different competitive attributes. The platformitization trend is both affecting shelf space and leading to deconstruction of the fund complex, since platform gatekeepers are increasingly inclined to select individual funds rather than fund families. The trend is also reshaping distribution opportunities. In this environment, small managers with specialized product offerings can be just as competitive as large organizations with broad capabilities. Major opportunities remain in alternatives, in exchange-traded products, and in international and global investing. Product and Distribution Update: Looking Beyond the Headlines 5

6 Sources 1-4. Source: SEI, Strategic Insights 5. Source: SEI, Pensions and Investments (December 25, 2006), Morgan Stanley Investment Strategies, Bloomberg, SIMFUND 6. Cerulli Associates, Source: SEI, Hedge Fund Research, Inc Source: SEI, Hedge Fund Research, Inc. ISSUES FOR 2007 Legal and regulatory change Business operations and outsourcing Marketing, sales, distribution Business strategy For more information, please contact: your SEI Relationship Manager or the SEI Knowledge Partnership at The Investment Manager Services unit is an internal business unit of SEI Investments Company. This information is provided for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide legal advice. SEI does not claim responsibility for the accuracy or reliability of the data provided. Information provided by SEI Global Services, Inc SEI Investments Developments, Inc. Product and Distribution Update: Looking Beyond the Headlines 6