Contingency Planning Guidelines A PRACTICAL GUIDE FOR FIELD STAFF. UNHCR Division of Operations Support. August 1996

Transcription

1 Contingency Panning Guideines A PRACTICAL GUIDE FOR FIELD STAFF UNHCR Division of Operations Support August 1996 Contents The Purpose This section covers the "when" and "why" of contingency panning. It ooks at the popuar misconceptions surrounding this activity. It considers the reationship to eary warning, operations panning and needs assessment and identifies indicators which wi suggest when it is prudent to initiate the panning process. The Process This section covers the "how" of contingency panning emphasising the importance of the process necessary to arrive at an effective pan. It describes an approach which is participatory and ongoing and suggests mechanisms which can be estabished in-country to update the pan and maintain the preparedness process. This process is not dissimiar to any effective panning process and as such may be appied equay to operations panning. The Partners This section identifies, and considers the roe of, the various agencies in the panning process. It is a kind of a checkist to ensure that the appropriate actors are invoved at the right stage. The Pan This section sets out a mode format for a contingency pan. These Guideines stress that the pan is simpy a product of the process and as such is constanty changing and requiring update. Nevertheess the pan has an importance as a working too and thus some guidance on the best approach to setting out the document is required. Annexes Annex A UNHCR's Standby Resources Annex B Eary Warning Indicators Annex C Questionnaire for Sector Panning Annex D Exampe Contingency Pan Annex E Overhead Transparencies for Training Annex F Additiona Reading The Preface These Contingency Guideines are written with UNHCR fied staff in mind. The typica reader of this document might be a programme officer or protection officer in a UNHCR fied office where there is considered to be a need to initiate contingency panning or to enhance existing panning processes. This being said, there are eements in these Guideines which have appicabiity to a wide range of staff in a wide range of agencies - whether UN, Government or non-governmenta agencies. Forward panning often takes more effort and perseverance than reactive action and, as such, is not aways seen as a priority. It is hoped that these Guideines wi be a stimuus to those who have hesitated at the idea of contingency panning, and be an effective too to those who are

2 aware of the need, but do not know where to commence or how to proceed. Having begun a contingency panning process one shoud not sit back with compacency. Do not confuse "output" with "impact". The panner shoud ask "Am I reay prepared if an emergency erupts tomorrow?" The honest answer in often unfortunatey negative. There is a danger that contingency panning becomes a mirage rather than a tangibe eement in preparedness. These Guideines coud equay be entited "Guideines for Contingency Actions" since panning without action is simpy ineffective, irresponsibe and even dangerous. Just as this document demonstrates that contingency panning is a process, and as such deveoping and changing over time, so too are these Guideines expected to change as staff gain new experiences and insights into the panning process. We woud wecome feed-back from staff on the Guideines and suggestions for improvements and changes. Section 1 - The Purpose What is an Emergency An emergency has been defined as: "Any situation in which the ife or we-being of refugees wi be threatened uness immediate and appropriate action is taken, and which demands an extraordinary response and exceptiona measures." As wi be noted from the fina cause in the definition, an emergency is defined not by the size or scope of an event itsef, but in the abiity of existing structures and mechanisms to dea with the event. Exceptiona measures require exceptiona panning. The impications of extraordinary and exceptiona nature of the event can be reduced through effective contingency panning. Why is Contingency Panning Important There is a growing reaisation that increasingy more attention and resources are being paid to refugee emergencies as compared with "stabe" refugee situations. The probem of refugees and dispaced persons has escaated to such an extent, and their compexity is such, that emergencies increasingy preoccupy UNHCR and other agencies. Prerequisites for rapid and effective emergency response are: 4 panning 4 avaiabiity of standby resources (financia, human and materia), 4 a mechanism for rapid decision making. A three constitute preparedness and are interdependent - one without the others wi not aow for effective response. Whie there is sti scope for enhancement, the standby resource arrangements of UNHCR and a number of UN and non-governmenta agencies have improved consideraby since the Guf Crisis in Annex A contains a summary of the standby resources deveoped by UNHCR. More detai on these resources can be found in the pubication "Cataogue of Emergency Response Resources" avaiabe for the Emergency Preparedness and Response Section (EPRS) in Geneva. This capacity to respond can often ie ide unti the decision is made to depoy. Poitica, financia, ogistica, security and bureaucratic constraints are amongst those which can deay depoyment of standby resources. An effective mechanism to address these issues is important but is beyond the scope of these Guideines. These Guideines concentrate on the first of the above prerequisites. Panning for contingencies affects the other two prerequisites since it heps identify the standby arrangements that may be required and aso assists rapid decision making, as it ensures the eary avaiabiity of reiabe information for poicy makers. Contingency Panning - A Definition

3 The component parts of this definition wi be expained in detai in these Guideines. "A forward panning process, in a state of uncertainty, in which scenarios and objectives are agreed, manageria and technica actions defined, and potentia response systems put in pace in order to prevent, or better respond to, an emergency or critica situation." For Which Contingencies do we pan? 4 new infux or sudden increase in refugee popuation 4 refouement or expusion 4 attack on a refugee camp 4 vioence within a camp or settement 4 spontaneous popuation movements within a country 4 spontaneous or organised vountary repatriation 4 camp reocation or new camp creation 4 sudden shortages of funding, food or other commodities 4 outbreak of an epidemic or serious heath probem 4 natura disaster affecting a refugee settement 4 staff evacuation, threat to staff security, attack on agency premises The answer is, for any possibe critica event. The most common in UNHCR is a new infux or sudden increase in a refugee popuation. There are many other contingencies for which one can pan. The way one approaches the panning process, the peope invoved and the content of the pan wi naturay vary according to the type of critica event. These Guideines concentrate on the refugee infux scenario, and it is up to the panner to adapt the process, if variation is required. The ist to the right is not exhaustive, but demonstrates the wide range of critica events and emergencies for which one can pan. In some cases, one may need to pan separatey for more than one event occurring in one country or region. When shoud Contingency Panning begin? A panning begins with a situation assessment and contingency panning is no exception. In most cases fied workers wi know simpy from experience when it wi be prudent to pan. One can, as is often said, "fee it in ones fingers". It need not be a sophisticated science or computer mode which triggers the panning process. Basic risk assessment and inteigence gathering anaysis is normay adequate. This being said an understanding of eary warning theory is usefu. Eary warning is "a process of information gathering and poicy anaysis to aow the prediction of deveoping crises and action either to prevent them or contain their effects." The stages in eary warning anaysis are: observe è coate è anayse è disseminate è react This task of eary warning anaysis shoud not be the responsibiity of one person aone, since accuracy is consideraby enhanced through the assimiation of information, experiences and skis of the widest possibe range of sources. Amongst these are: 4 Refugees (eaders, vunerabe groups, od and new caseoads) 4 Poitica entities (centra & oca government, opposition groups) 4 Loca popuation 4 Journaists & newspapers 4 Academic institutions, scientists, schoars 4 Internationa bodies (UN, NGOs, dipomatic staff) 4 Loca NGOs and associations There must be some trigger to commence panning and the eary warning signs of a potentia critica event may be important in initiating the process. When are the signs such that one shoud pan for contingencies? Here, there is no hard and fast rue. Often it is simpy a question of intuition mixed with experience that prompts one to recognise the need. A number of attempts

4 have been made to "scientificay" determine when an infux or some other event requiring contingency panning is ikey, but a have their imitations. Neither extreme, the intuitive nor the scientific are adequate. The best approach to eary warning ies somewhere between. Nevertheess as a rue: "It is better to pan when it is not needed, than not to have panned when it was" It is we worth understanding the dynamics of Eary Warning. There are normay three prevaiing factors: Annex B provides a ist of each of these factors. They reate to fows of refugees, but are indicative of the numerous eements which may contribute to (and deay) a mass movement of persons. For other critica events, such as a natura disaster affecting a refugee camp, probabiity may be more scientificay determined, but the timing more uncertain. Some sort of ongoing eary warning anaysis shoud be an integra part of any contingency panning process. An Understanding of "Panning" Concepts is Important There is a certain ogic to the panning process. This ogic can appy equay to major tasks, such as panning a overa operation to reativey minor day to day activities. In essence panning comprises the foowing steps. Situation assessment î Objective setting î Impementation options î Feasibiity testing î Impementation î Monitoring & evauation î Adjust objectives... Panning is an ongoing activity. As can be noted from the sequence above, the panner is constanty monitoring progress and adjusting the objectives to take account of new reaities. Panning shoud take pace in both stabe and in exceptiona circumstances. In an emergency, panning takes on an enhanced importance, since one must minimise mistakes as we as move forward in a systematic and speedy manner. Panning is not simpy theory but a pre-requisite for action. The oft quoted comment,

5 "this is an emergency, we don't have time to pan" is i-conceived. This being said, the whoe point of contingency panning is to begin the panning before the emergency begins by mapping out objectives and strategies prior to the crisis stage. The steps in panning wi be examined in more detai in Section 2. Contingency Panning and Operations Panning There is not a great dea of difference between contingency and operations panning. Both are panning activities as described above where objectives are set and a strategy to achieve these objectives deineated. The major difference between the two, is that panning for contingencies is panning in a state of uncertainty. One must make assumptions and deveop scenarios upon which panning is based. In operations panning, one observes a tangibe situation and responds to it. There are two kinds of associations between contingency panning and operations panning: The continuum mode where contingency panning is a stage before operations panning. In this mode, the eary warning signs prompt contingency panning and, shoud the event for which one panned, actuay occur, the panning process simpy changes gear and becomes operations panning. The assumptions made in the contingency panning stage are confirmed or adjusted, and then the operations panning continues, taking account of a rea situation. Eary Warning ê Contingency Panning ê Operations Panning In many cases however, contingency panning takes pace in the midst of a (sometimes compex) operation. For exampe if one is panning for a renewed infux, a natura disaster affecting a camp or a sudden spontaneous repatriation, then contingency panning becomes one eement of operations panning. Here there are eements of certainty and uncertainty mixed - the reaities of the ongoing operation are we known but future deveopments for which one needs to be prepared are to be assumed.

6 As wi be seen in the foowing sections of these Guideines, the participants in the contingency and operations panning process (normay an inter-agency group) wi often be the same in composition. This aows for continuity and consistency. For exampe, in modeî it is an easy transition for a contingency panning group to adjust their modus operandi to operations panning. Contingency Panning and Needs & Resources Assessment Needs and resources assessment is an essentia ingredient in contingency panning, indeed a panning. In order to pan effectivey one requires to understand the prevaiing situation by assessing both needs and resources. On the basis of needs (or in the case of contingency panning anticipated needs), one can set objectives. An understanding of resources can hep in the deveopment of a strategy to reach the objectives. Needs and resources assessments are essentia prior to undertaking contingency panning. This does not mean one needs to aunch a major needs and resources assessment mission. It may be sufficient to incude in the panning process persons who are sufficienty famiiar with, and technicay competent, to contribute to the panning process. Once the panning begins, ongoing needs and resources assessments are required to take account of changing reaities. UNHCR has produced a Needs and Resources Assessment Manua which is avaiabe on request from UNHCR in Geneva and which can assist practitioners in undertaking such assessments. Contingency Panning and Training Some agencies are unfamiiar with the notion of contingency panning; many are we aware of its importance but approach it in different ways. The approach outined in these Guideines has been deveoped over time and through practica experience (and is generay the accepted approach of the United Nations agencies with which UNHCR most frequenty cooperates). UNHCR beieves that it is a successfu approach to the type of critica events with which it is faced. This does not mean it is the ony approach and indeed it may not be appropriate in some circumstances. There may be times therefore when UNHCR=s approach needs to be expained to participants in the process. Training (or more appropriatey expanation and carification) may therefore be a desirabe eement in the panning process. It is important that a participants understand the approach and are abe to proceed in unison. One shoud avoid a situation where a misunderstanding on the best way to proceed undermines or detracts from the contingency panning process itsef. Poitica sensitivity, cutura factors and different agency agendas may interfere with a common approach. These issues wi be deat with in Section 2. Just as the contingency panning process might have a training eement, emergency training activities in UNHCR and other UN organisations have a contingency panning eement. UNHCR runs an Emergency Management Training Programme (EMTP). It is a course for some 35 government, NGO, UNHCR and other UN agency participants hed over a 12 day period in three

7 separate regions each year. The Department of Humanitarian Affairs (DHA) has a contingency panning eement in the Disaster Management Training Programme (DMTP) for which they are responsibe. DHA is aso the secretariat for the Compex Emergency Training Initiative (CETI), an inter-agency grouping which has stressed the importance of contingency panning training. These guideines are consistent with the approach taken in both the EMTP and DMTP training. UNHCR is producing a series of Emergency Management training modues which incude such subjects as eary warning, needs & resources assessment, operations panning as we as contingency panning. These coud be used as part of the contingency panning process to sensitise panners to the approach and ensure that a participants are taking a consistent approach. What Contingency Panning is not - frequent misconceptions As a trainer, initiator or faciitator of contingency panning, you may often hear the foowing statements. As wi be noted ater in the Guideines, these generay resut from a misunderstanding of what contingency panning invoves. 7 Contingency panning costs money - financia resources are required in advance before panning can begin 7 Externa expertise is needed - the experts must come on mission to pan. There is no oca expertise 7 It takes one major effort and once the pan is ready, itte more needs to be done - one is now prepared 7 Contingency panning is not an integra part of our work, its an exceptiona activity 7 Contingency panning is sensitive, confidentia and threatening, so shoud not be attempted or at east shoud be done in secret 7 Contingency panning creates a pu factor which encourages dispacement which may have otherwise not occurred 7 It is product oriented - stockpies, pans, budgets are an end in themseves not a means to a successfu response The Leves of Preparedness Within the ream of contingency panning, there are various eves of preparedness. There may be a goba or genera preparedness, a country or operation specific preparedness and thirdy a heightened aert. In the UNHCR context this can be expressed in the foowing manner: Œ GENERAL GLOBAL PREPAREDNESS The state of genera preparedness in which standby arrangements are in pace, staff trained, materias stockpied and access to emergency funding assured. These arrangements are not necessariy country specific. UNHCR has various goba preparedness measures in pace as described in Annex A. ENHANCED COUNTRY SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS Ž HEIGHTENED ALERT The state in which a particuar country or region can be considered to be emergency prone or vunerabe to the effects of emergencies. Accordingy, contingency panning shoud be undertaken. Whie this stage appies to many countries, at this stage, the resource investment (particuary financia) wi be imited. The state in which the panners concude that the situation has reached a critica stage and that action requiring an added investment in resources (stockpiing, training, fund-raising, staff standby etc.) is warranted. Whie it is difficut to quantify the eve of risk at each stage, it might be usefu to further concretise

8 each eve, describing eve as one in which there is at east a 1 in 2 chance of a major critica event occurring and eve Ž as one where it had reached a 1 in 2 chance. These Guideines essentiay expain the steps from the beginning of eve, and ead the reader through both eves and Ž. These stages are important to keep in mind since they wi be very practica toos in the panning process itsef. Certain preparedness tasks require few resources and are reativey easy to impement and can thus be done in stage, whie others woud ony be poiticay and financiay viabe after the heightened aert. Thus when deciding on the timing of preparedness actions one can think in terms of these "stages" or "eves" rather than in terms of "in six weeks" or "by year end" etc. Section 2 - The Process The Process - A Definition "A group of peope or organisations, working together on an ongoing basis to identify shared objectives and define respective actions." Contingency panning is primariy a process. It is not a one time event, even ess a "Pan". The panning process may we have a starting point but usuay no end. One traditiona approach to contingency panning has been to "fy in" one (or more) "experts" to draw up a pan for a potentia critica event or emergency. This has its dangers: 4 It is too much to expect one (or even severa) person(s) to effectivey cover a sectors and issues. The technica, poicy, oca and practica concerns are too diverse and compex 4 The existence of a pan "prepared by the experts" can ead to compacency and fase security 4 There is no ownership by those not invoved. That shoud rest with the organisations and persons who shoud update it and by whom it wi eventuay be impemented 4 It wi quicky become out of date if it reies on externa inputs a the time These pitfas can ceary be avoided by panning coectivey, marshaing the widest range of oca skis and compementing these by externa inputs. By reviewing and updating panning measures on a reguar basis, one ensures that the preparedness measures in pace are appropriate, adequate and compementary. Experience has ceary shown, that reiance on the Pan aone eads to a fase sense of confidence, since the Pan quicky becomes out of date. Many Pans read we but when one scratches the surface one reaises that practica response measures are merey proposas rather than reaity. The Pan without the process thus tends to be: "A security banket with a short shef ife" How is the Process Manifest As the definition above impies, contingency panning is best achieved through a cooperative and coordinated effort wherein a reevant agencies shoud work together, in the same direction (shared objectives) and over a period of time. Meeting once and producing a Pan is usuay insufficient and the product usuay inadequate. The process revoves around reguar meetings. Inputs into these meetings incude expertise, fied visits, agency poicy etc., whie outputs incude Pans, reports, budgets, actions, stockpies etc..

9 Before proceeding one shoud take stock of the state of contingency panning in your country. First decide on the kind of emergencies or critica events for which panning may be desirabe. (See the box on page 6). Then assess the state and context of panning in your country. It is ikey that you find yoursef in one of the situations beow: Contingency Panning is aready taking pace through Interagency meetings If you find yoursef in this position, much of what is written in these guideines wi be famiiar to you. There may naturay be room for improvement and these guideines may provide you with some ideas. You may ask yoursef, whether the meetings are hed frequenty enough, sufficienty focussed on the task, are the participating agencies the most reevant, is the product adequate in ight of the emergency for which one is panning, shoud one be panning for other emergencies? Have you shared your Pans with headquarters? Contingency Panning is aready taking pace but not in the context of Interagency meetings You may aready have a contingency pan. Is it up to date? Who prepared it? Was it prepared in the context of an inter-agency forum? Does the Pan incude practica measures or is it a ist of intentions? These are some of the questions you shoud ask yoursef. It may we be that the Pan and the panning needs to be revitaised. If the pan has not been deveoped in consutation with other agencies, then it may be appropriate to take a new approach on the basis of these guideines. In essence there is aways a time to evauate the effectiveness of one=s panning and take remedia action if the panning is not considered effective. No Contingency Panning is taking pace but there are inter-agency meetings

10 Where inter-agency meetings aready exist it is worthwhie deciding whether the composition of the group, the working methods and the meeting frequency can be adapted or extended to add contingency panning onto the agenda. One shoud think carefuy about this though, since the existing system may smother new initiatives in contingency panning and it may be worthwhie starting afresh with a new structure and procedures. If one chooses to use the same structure, there shoud ideay be a distinction between the processes. It may not be an adequate enough approach to simpy add contingency panning onto the agenda as a new item. If one does, it wi ose its importance and the concerted energy needed for it to be effective wi be ost. On the other hand, with skifu panning, one coud use existing interagency meetings as a sounding board and eventuay a spring board for new contingency panning initiatives. The endorsement of the inter-agency group woud thus be most vauabe. No Contingency Panning is taking pace and there are no inter-agency meetings In some cases there is no existing interagency meeting structure yet there is considered to be a patent need for some form of contingency panning. Indeed we have seen in some countries that the commencement of contingency panning through the inter-agency process has brought agencies together for the first time, abeit with a specific agenda. The efficacy of the forum has then stimuated further inter-agency consutation in other areas. The contingency panning has in fact been the ignition for broader consutation to the benefit of the country operation as a whoe. Let us assume that a new meeting structure is desirabe. The first meeting sets the tone for the way in which the process wi proceed. It does not mean that there wi not be an opportunity to change the composition, the procedures and the frequency of the meetings at a ater date, but it is we worth giving carefu thought to aying a soid foundation. The Round-Tabe Meetings come in different forms. We have deiberatey referred to contingency panning sessions as "Round-Tabes". This is to stress the importance of participation by a agencies. Each has something usefu to contribute to the panning. The views of one agency may differ from others, but this wi often be to the advantage of the panning process since it provides a usefu forum for a assumptions to be questioned and refined. The end product is thus more reaistic. Whie UNHCR may faciitate the round-tabe, the equa importance of each agency must be respected. r Suitabe meeting room r Fip chart and paper & pens r Overhead projector & screen r Tent cards for names r Refreshments r Video payer r Eectrica outets & wiring r Photocopier, computer printer r Interpreter if required The frequency of the meetings depends very much on the circumstances. In a stabe situation, meeting every 3 months is probaby the norm. If the eary warning signs are such that one is approaching or has entered the "aert" stage, then weeky meetings or monthy meetings wi be necessary to ensure enhanced preparedness. Whatever the situation, there shoud be a readiness to meet at very short notice if it is demanded by the situation. The Round-tabe wi require an optimum environment and props for it to be effective. Some guidance can be found in the UNHCR pubication "Learning to Train - An Introduction to Training Skis" and a checkist of the essentia eements is shown on the right. This ist assumes that there is a training or presentationa eement in the round-tabe, possiby a presentation on the current situation in the country of origin or on pans for refugee sites. For the inaugura round-tabe, for which a possibe agenda is discussed beow, many of these resources wi be required. The usefuness of the fipchart shoud not be underestimated since it provides a visua way for the faciitator or rapporteur

11 to take notes and wi generate, prompt and stimuate new ideas from the participants. The Agenda - the Inaugura Round-Tabe In this part we wi go into some detai of the agenda and content of the inaugura meeting in the contingency panning process. This is simpy presented as a guide and some adaptation wi aways be required. Even if the process has begun in your country, the detais beow may stimuate some new ideas and approaches to revitaise the process. + Step 1 The Preparation Decide on participants, venue, faciitator, agenda and send out the invitations preferaby with the agenda. One coud consider whether it is worthwhie incuding an experienced faciitator from your duty station or Headquarters. (Refer to Section 3 on The Partners for more guidance). + Step 2 The Introduction The faciitator can open the session and invite some brief opening remarks from the UNHCR Representative, UNDP Resident Representative and/or the most senior government officia. Try to keep the formaity to a minimum. The faciitator can expain the objectives of the round tabe, and the agenda. It woud then be appropriate to ask participants to introduce themseves and comment, if they wish on the agenda and objectives. Contingency Panning Round Tabe - Ruritania 6-7 June To introduce participants to the principes of Emergency panning and management. 2. To discuss the concepts of Emergency Preparedness and Response 3. To consider the concepts of Eary Warning, Needs & Resources Assessment, Contingency Panning and Operations Panning 4. To begin the Contingency Panning process, cuminating in the preparation of a Contingency Pan for possibe refugee infux 5. To provide an opportunity for participants to famiiarise themseves with each other and their respective agencies' capacities and needs 6. To consider the means and arrangements for future ongoing co-operation in reation to preparedness and contingency panning. Agenda

12 Part One 1. Purpose of Round Tabe 2. Participant Introductions and expectations 3. An introduction to Emergency Management - Preparedness and Response 4. Eary Warning for refugee fows 5. An introduction to Panning, Needs Assessment & Operations Panning 6. Contingency Panning - the process Part Two 7. Identifying Scenarios 8. Poicy Carifications/Strategic Objectives 9. Sector Objectives 10. Sector Activities - what, who, by when 11. The way forward Two fu days are required for this agenda. The first morning for a of part one, incuding a practica eary warning exercise, can be foowed in the afternoon by identifying the scenarios and agreeing on the poicy objectives. That wi give the faciitator the opportunity to type up these two eements and present them to the participants the next morning to seek their agreement and in part to recap on the previous day's discussion. The remainder of the second day can be devoted to proceeding in as much detai as possibe through each of the sectors, eaving a short time before cosing, deciding on the next steps and the date of the next meeting. + Step 3 The Training It wi be noted from the objectives and the agenda that there is a training eement incuded. The intention is not to say, "this is how it shoud be done" but "this is how UNHCR finds it usefu to approach contingency panning". Guidance on content and overhead transparencies for this training are avaiabe from EPRS in Geneva. Some are attached as Annex F to these Guideines. Eary Warning Worksheet Country Infux From List the factors in order of importance Factors Factors Prompting Departure

13 Intervening Factors (reasons for postponed fight) Triggering Events There are some activities within the "training" segment which wi be usefu for subsequent discussions. Under agenda item 3 the faciitator coud expain the goba emergency preparedness arrangements of UNHCR (as described in Annex A). Then ask each of the agencies present to describe their preparedness arrangements. A second exercise coud be to turn the theory of Eary warning into a practica exercise for your specific anticipated emergency. Give the participants a work-sheet ike the one to the right and take some minutes for each person to identify 3 or more factors in each section. The indicators are isted in Annex B and this wi hep participants in undertaking the exercise. Then, in penary, take say 3 indicators for each box from each participant, to arrive at an indicative pattern. Use the fip chart to record the resuts. It shoud be mentioned that this is not a scientific exercise, but is intended simpy to get a better appreciation of how eary warning factors interact. It does, nevertheess, aready introduce the participants to the actua country issues at this eary stage in the process. + Step 4 Scenario Identification Based on their own experience, eary warning indicators, reiabe commentary etc. the emergency panners shoud deveop possibe or ikey scenario(s). This activity is the most intuitive, yet one of the most important, since this ays the basis for a further panning. In estabishing scenarios one wi inevitaby make assumptions, and whie these wi be based on the experiences and knowedge of a range of persons, there wi inevitaby be an eement of unpredictabiity. "The ony predictabe thing about a scenario is that it wi be wrong" This may be true, but it doesn't reay matter that much. It is important to sette for one or more scenarios for panning purposes and if the infux is smaer, one knows one is we prepared, and if it is greater, one immediatey reaises the importance of taking urgent corrective action. The scenario is in effect a kind of benchmark. For scenario conceptuaisation: 4 consider a possibiities (be imaginative) 4 sette for a imited number of options ony (3-4 options are the norm) otherwise the panning process wi be too compicated 4 use the concept of "worst case/best case"

14 4 consider probabiity 4 decide whether to pan for muti-scenario, worst case or another option If time is avaiabe divide into two or more groups of some 6-8 persons and task each group to arrive at a ikey scenario(s). Then in penary compare and then synthesise these into one or more agreed scenarios. Aternativey immediatey begin the discussion (brainstorming) process in penary using the fip chart to record the concusions. Remember to keep scenarios to a minimum since one wi need to undertake detaied panning for a scenarios. If there are regiona variations with different scenarios for each region, the scenario setting exercise wi need to be organised to take account of these variations. t Entry points t Tota panning figure t Arriva rate t Reception & anticipated movements t Settement arrangements t Emergency response trigger t Expected refugee profie In order to structure the scenario discussions, some headings wi be desirabe. These wi of course differ depending on the type of event for which one is panning, but for a refugee infux the headings coud be those shown in the box. Annex D gives an exampe of an infux scenario. Most eements are sef expanatory, except for the "emergency response trigger" which perhaps deserves some expanation. There are various eves of preparedness which wi hep the panning process (goba preparedness, country preparedness and aert). The next stage is the actua response. It is we worthwhie to identify, in advance, the indicators which manifest this stage so that time is not ost discussing "when" the emergency actuay begins. Some ca this the decaration of the emergency. The panners need to know when to mobiise the response arrangements. In some cases it wi be quite obvious but very often there is a temptation to say "ets wait and see if the situation deteriorates further" rather than acting immediatey. There is a danger if the response threshod keeps moving, to a more extreme eve than is prudent. See Annex D for an exampe of a response trigger. + Step 5 Poicy/strategic objective Identification The panners need to have some vision of the direction of the overa operation. To the extent possibe this shoud be a shared vision. It is not unusua for the various partners to hod different poicy approaches to a particuar probem. If these can not be reconcied at east they shoud be known and understood by a parties. Nevertheess an effort shoud be made to agree on some overa principes through estabishing overa objectives for the response operation. A activities undertaken in the pan wi need to be consistent with these overa objectives. The overa objectives can simpy be accompished by brainstorming in penary. In order to divert any open confictua debate some effort may be required prior to the meeting to find a formua acceptabe to a parties. This wi not normay be necessary though, since as can be seen from the exampe in Annex D, the poicy objectives are normay of a genera nature and noncontroversia. + Step 6 Sector Objective and Activity Identification This is the most substantive and detaied part of the meeting. For each sector the participants shoud agree, in as much detai as time wi permit, on the: 4 sector objectives incuding standards 4 activities/tasks 4 who is responsibe for impementing the task 4 time frame for impementation

15 The simpest, as we as the most participatory, way to approach this task is to proceed sector by sector using the fip chart to record the views of the participants. It is a good idea to distribute the sector considerations (Annex C) before hand. Certain agencies wi ceary have a more prominent roe in some sectors (UNHCR for Protection, WFP for food and Logistics, etc.) and it may be worthwhie expaining to these agencies what wi be expected of them in the Round-tabe so that they have some time to prepare their inputs in advance. Leave the "management" sector for the end since it fas into pace more easiy once one knows what one needs to manage and coordinate. Stress that this is not a "pedging conference" and that it is not necessary for agencies to commit themseves to a task if they are unabe to at that stage. Their roe at this stage coud simpy be indicative. Having recorded the inputs on the fip chart, the rapporteur can write up the Pan, adding some background information for each. (See Annex D for an exampe.) On the next page there is an indication of the types of raw data which wi be recorded on the fip chart for ater editing into the Pan. + Step 7 The Way Forward Agree with the participants that this is simpy the beginning of the process. The notes taken during the meeting wi be compied into the Pan which wi be shared with them for amendment and endorsement. Agree on the timing of the next meeting and the agenda for that meeting. Normay the agenda of that and subsequent meetings coud have 3 standard items: 1. Review the eary warning indicators 2. Report on actions taken by agencies in the interim 3. Update the Pan by making amendments and additions The foow up process wi need to be activey managed by UNHCR (or whichever ead agency is designated).ongoing iaison is required with agencies between meetings, these meetings need to be convened as agreed and agencies ready to pay their agreed part. The roe of the Afaciitator@ is crucia here, a roe which is described further in Section 3. Process Input If reguar meetings (in penary, and if necessary, in technica or regiona sub groups) are the hub of the process, then input (see diagram on page 14) is required to ensure its effectiveness. This incudes: 4 Technica expertise and advice 4 Resuts from fied visits 4 Information from the countries of origin 4 Resuts of biatera meetings with agencies outside the inter-agency meetings 4 Poicy statements of various agencies It is important to gather technica inputs which are timey and appropriate. "Timey" in the sense that they come in the right sequence in the process. For exampe, there is itte point undertaking site panning surveys before the settement ocations are agreed by a parties. Often poitica and strategic decisions are required prior to technica inputs. Yet, care must be taken to ensure that there are sufficient technica inputs to make reasoned poitica and strategic decisions. AAppropriate@ in the sense that the site panner must be experienced in panning refugee settements. The ongoing nature of the process approach aows for this injection of expertise at the right time and gives greater scope to the right technica experts being avaiabe, since the window of opportunity for their missions is arger. Process Output Output or products from the process are the physica manifestations of the panning process. These incude: 4 The Pan 4 Projects and Budgets 4 Standby arrangements such as stockpies 4 Training of potentia impementing partners

16 4 Preparedness checkists These are constanty reviewed, vaidated and amended as the process continues. Constraints and Diemmas "That's a very nice in theory, but it won't work here. You don't understand, our situation is different." Guideines are just that, a guide. They are based on best practice often under favourabe conditions. There wi be constraints and reasons why they can not be appied "according to the book." Each scenario and country situation is different, hence the need for adaptation, perseverance, dipomacy and imagination. Some of the obvious constraints and diemmas are: The constraint Poitica sensitivity There is often a concern by the government and others that undertaking contingency panning wi convey the wrong messages and may even be a pu factor. There may be strong pressure to undertake contingency panning in secret. The Government may not participate. Indeed, you may fee that panning may provide an opportunity for some actors to overreact and pan for excusion or more restrictive measures than woud have been the case in a sudden infux. A these considerations are vaid, and this is probaby the most difficut constraint to overcome. Cutura considerations The "process" described in these Guideines is characterised by participation and horizonta agency interaction. In many countries the participatory, non hierarchica approach to panning is not a famiiar way of working. Often Pans are prepared by managers and handed down for impementation, technica staff do not necessariy pan with poicy makers, resources are centray managed etc. A these factors may not fit comfortaby with Possibe ways dea with it 1. Invoke internationa ega instruments (1951 Convention, OAU Convention, Universa Decaration of Human Rights etc.) which specify obigations. 2. Stress that contingency panning is not unique to that country but a "norma" and "expected" activity for UNHCR and the Agencies. 3. Indicate that refugees do not move from their homes without carefu consideration and considerabe pressure. Thus contingency panning in itsef wi not be a pu factor. 4. Deveop an understanding of the ines of authority and possibe probems within the hierarchy in gaining acceptance for contingency panning. Ensure approaches are made at the correct and most effective eve. 5. If the Government is hesitant in participating accept it and with their permission undertake the panning. Keep them informed and eventuay when they see that it is non threatening draw them in. There may be indirect ways they can be invoved such as during training sessions on emergency management. 6. Secrecy shoud be avoided - it has a tendency to backfire and be counter-productive. Confidentiaity is essentia however. There may be a few instances where media coverage is considered part of the strategy of the Pan, but these instances are rare. 1. Consider a separate meeting with "senior managers" to expain the process and seek their endorsement (see p 26). Give the senior officias a roe which conveys their status. 2. At the "Round Tabe", expain the ground rues so that everybody understands the method of working from the outset. In doing, so seek consensus on the agenda and the process. 3. Find the "cuturay appropriate" approach and aim for a midde way between your approach and that of the participants. 4. Where this is a new activity for the oca counterparts, there may be vaue in expaining that this is not new for UNHCR, which is drawing on experience and best practice

17 the inter-agency participatory process. Scenario compexity In many countries it may be difficut to identify one or two scenarios upon which to base the panning. The existence of numerous poitica, racia, triba groups or the varying geographic ocations, each of which manifests different panning probems, wi compicate the process. Even without this eve of compexity, finding agreement on a scenario may be iusive. Lack of Interest Motivating agencies to participate may be a chaenge. Some may not recognise the potentia probem, see the need for the panning, or think that the consutative process is necessary. They may fee satisfied with their own pan if they have one. Much of course depends on attitudes and personaities of the staff. Poicy Variations & Competing Mandates Governments, UN Agencies and NGOs have different mandates, and amongst Government departments, UN agencies and NGOs there are often different mandates, stances and approaches. "Hidden" agendas are not unusua. These must be recognised from the outset of the diaogue. These varying viewpoints wi often compicate the consutative process. Operationa Compexity Ongoing programmes wi often confuse the carity and neatness of a contingency panning process. The preoccupation with the mounting numerous tasks of the current operation may not aow time or energy to be devoted to new tasks. Agencies have expectations of the roe they may pay in panned operations because that is the roe that they currenty pay. There may esewhere, thus giving the methodoogy an endorsement. 1. Where there are different Geographic areas, separate panning processes may be desirabe. This may be accompished through different sub groups comprising regiona or district agency representatives panning separatey whie the separate parts are brought together at centra eve in one Pan with consistent eements. The separate pans wi require coordination through the participation in the regiona meetings of at east one representative from the centra panning committee. 2. Do not be tempted into seecting too many scenarios. As ong as they are representative of a possibiities, the size or intensity of a probem can be adjusted, since for panning purposes the scenario simpy needs to be indicative. 1. The beauty of an ongoing process is that the composition of the panning partners can change over time. Begin with those prepared to participate and keep others informed. They may join the process as they note its efficacy. 2. Contact Headquarters to iaise with the Headquarters of the agency which is not participating to encourage invovement and asking that the panning process be endorsed at that eve. 3. Do not take any initiatives which may ead to entrenched views which precude future invovement. 1. Dipomacy, honesty and openness are essentia in the process. If agencies are concerned with "image", experience has shown that the net benefits of this kind of coective endeavour outweigh to individua gain. 2. Focus discussions at the appropriate eve. Operationa issues are best discussed at operationa eves and may faciitate poicy-eve decisions where feedback and advice from the technicians is positive. 3. Dipomatic missions of donor governments wi be an important ay here. These governments are very concerned about inter-agency cooperation and are enthusiastic about coordination mechanisms such as those described in these Guideines. 1. One must recognise the ongoing operation and not totay ignore the existing coordination and management structures. It may be wise to begin with an anaysis of a these structures and procedures and identify those which wi contribute positivey to the process of contingency panning and those which do not. Maximise the use of the former and minimise the use of the atter. 2. Estabish Guideines or a code of conduct for the panned operation at the eariest possibe stage. This wi ensure that a participating agencies in the process accept the objectives, agree with the process and have acceptabe standards of operation. These Guideines wi have a certain

18 be reasons why, for the sake of an force if deveoped an sanctioned by an inter-agency group. effective operation there shoud be a change. Separating the contingency panning process from the current operation, stepping back and taking a fresh cean ook at the probem is not easy. Section 3 - The Partners This section assumes that the process wi invove a "group". The reasons for this have been expained earier, but it may be worth reiterating the od adages that "many heads are better than one" and that "many hands make ight work". It is not feasibe for one "expert" to prepare the pan. To be effective one shoud marsha a the possibe and avaiabe expertise so that synergy (the sum of the whoe is greater than its individua parts) resuts. There are other direct benefits, of course, such as ownership by those who must impement the pan; and indirect benefits, such as contingency panning providing an opportunity for interagency interaction, which in itsef is vauabe. This being said, the seection and management of the partners shoud not be random. The participants in the process are the key to effectiveness of the contingency panning. The seection of the organisations represented, and the individuas representing these organisations, is important. Before isting the possibe participants, there are a few issues which need to be addressed and which require consideration when arranging participation in the process. Optimum group size The size of the group wi in the first instance depend on the critica event for which one is panning. Some very specific situations, such as staff or premises security, may be better handed by a sma speciaist group, whereas a major refugee infux woud require broad representation. Normay a meeting of 20 persons woud be a maximum for the meeting to be run in a fuy participatory manner with the eve of informaity that is essentia. Larger meetings tend to be cumbersome and can ead to situations where there are set statements rather than interactive diaogue. On the other hand fewer than 10 persons does not aow for a sufficient range of views. It may be necessary to convene two eves of meetings, the arger forma meeting where statements of principe and support can be made and the second eve working group meeting which deveops the detai. Seection of participants The initia seection of participating agencies requires carefu thought. Keeping in mind the objective of the panning and the comments above on size, it is often better to be incusive than excusive. Since the group wi meet periodicay as part of the process, the composition need not be fixed for a future meetings. There must be scope for agencies to be added and for others to drop out according to the possibe contribution to the process and benefit to the agency. By erring on the side of incusion, the utiity of each agency to the process can be determined. Those which reaise that they have imited contribution vaue may sometimes decide to excude themseves from subsequent meetings. Naturay the seection of agencies wi depend on the nature of the critica incident for which one is panning. Some wi be essentia since they may be expected to have an operationa or important roe in the impementation stage whie some may ony be important in certain parts of the process. Having determined which agencies to incude, one needs to give some thought to the eve of representation from each agency. In some cases there is no choice since the agency country representation may be sma. It is of course up to the agencies to decide who from their office shoud attend. It is incumbent on the organisers to ceary expain the nature of the meeting so that the decision is based on an understanding of need. The invitation shoud therefore be as

19 expicit as possibe. In many cases agencies wi prefer to be represented, at east at the eary stages, by a senior staff member, maybe the country representative. This person coud be compemented by a speciaist. Thus 2 representatives from one reevant agency may be desirabe. Once the process becomes more practica and routine the poicy maker may withdraw. From time to time there may be considerabe vaue in seeking agency headquarters participation. The country desk officer from UNHCR in Geneva, a food and ogistics officer from WFP in Rome, various speciaists from the Programme and Technica Support Section at UNHCR in Geneva, a water speciaist from OXFAM in Engand etc., may be a vauabe catayst to moving forward in a the panning process or injecting some technica expertise. Such persons may aso be avaiabe at a nearby office in the region. In order to capitaise on the presence of these peope adequate advance notice wi be required. Loca technica expertise shoud not be overooked. Externa input into the country panning process is not aways possibe to arrange and at best wi be sporadic, thus the eary integration of oca expertise, from government or oca NGOs, is highy desirabe. Language abiities of the participants are an important consideration. Since the meetings are highy participatory, working with interpreters is cumbersome, disruptive and can ead to misunderstanding. At times this may not be avoided, but every effort shoud be made to ensure that a participants and the faciitator share a common anguage. The Foca Point, the Faciitator, and the Rapporteur These three functions are important to the success of the process and effective contingency panning. It may we be that the same person fufis a three functions or they may be spit between two or three persons. The choice depends on staff avaiabiity and skis, since each requires different competencies. Roe Function Competencies Foca Point Faciitator A process is dynamic and does not drive itsef. The foca point provides the impetus, the momentum to the process. The foca point needs to: 4 monitor the eary warning signs and ca meetings when necessary, be conscious of the composition of the group and initiate change, identify gaps in the pan and in genera maintain a watching brief over the process; 4 coordinate and share information so that a parties in the process are constanty aware of the status of the panning, have up to date copies of the pan and fee truy part of the process; 4 ca and arrange meetings and identify the faciitator (if the foca point does not assume that roe). Meetings must be effectivey managed, with an agenda and adequate meeting discipine. Minutes may not be required if a concusions are recorded in a the revised Contingency Pan. It is the faciitators roe to ensure there is a detaied agenda, that it is shared with participants in advance of the meeting and to guide the faciitator. To faciitate meetings is an art which goes beyond chairmanship. It may we be that the meetings become routine and that a competent chair person can perform that task. Nevertheess, for the first Organisationa skis, understanding of the contingency panning approach, positive pubic reations stye, appreciation of how to manage meetings. Skis at faciitation and ideay a famiiarity and expertise with refugee issues, the oca situation,

20 Rapporteur meeting there may be a vaue in arranging for a management of faciitator. Apart from ensuring that the process begins emergencies and on the correct footing, it has the added advantage of contingency panning. reeasing others to activey participate in the panning, a task which is difficut for a non-independent faciitator. Subsequenty, the ogica chairperson may we be the head of one of the organisations or the chair may rotate to foster a truy cooperative arrangement or in some cases there may be a cochair (the government and the UN). For further information on hoding effective meetings refer to the UNHCR training modue "Chairing and Faciitating Meetings". This roe invoves assimiating the comments in the meetings, receiving written inputs from the partners and writing the pan. Ideay the same person shoud update the pan to ensure some continuity. If the pan refects the discussion effectivey, separate minutes of each meeting (except to note the date of the meeting, who participated and other practica information not refected in the pan) are not particuary necessary. Drafting skis, computer iteracy desirabe Continuity and Permanency The pan, the participants and the foca point provide continuity to the process. There is a danger, particuary given constant staff changes in many organisations, that the process wi cease through negect. Of course, if the threat of a critica event or emergency diminishes there is no point sustaining the process, but that must be a conscious decision, not simpy a resut of defaut. In the seection of the participants it is worthwhie ensuring the participation of persons who wi be present for some time. They shoud ensure handover to others if there is change in an organisation and if necessary arrange for two representatives from one organisation if one is due for rotation. Checkist for Agency Participation The foowing checkist is intended as a guide to the contingency panner when compiing the ist of participants in the panning process. It is not exhaustive and each situation requires a different mix of participants. Use the ist to consider each agency and their potentia roe. In doing so it is important to ensure coverage of the foowing: 4 Are a technica sectors covered by those agencies represented? 4 Are there sufficient oca organisations with country nationas famiiar with oca conditions as we as poitica reaities? 4 Are there agencies/persons famiiar with the situation in the country of origin and eary warning indicators? 4 Are a mandated agencies represented? r UNHCR Participation wi normay invove the Representative, at east at the eary stages of the process. UNHCR wi aso provide the faciitator. To aunch the process this may be an emergency officer from UNHCR in Geneva, but this is not essentia (these guideines are intended to enabe the