INFO5990 Professional Practice in IT Lecture 04A Dr Geoffrey Kennedy

Transcription

1 INFO5990 Professional Practice in IT Lecture 04A Dr Geoffrey Kennedy Are Information System projects any harder than others? What is project management? INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 1 Kennedy 2013

2 By the end of this lecture you will be able to: Comment on failure rates in Information System projects Suggest causes for high failure rates in Information System projects Appreciate the need for project management Explain the nature and purpose of a work breakdown structure Understand the difficulty of determining task dependencies INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 2 Kennedy 2013

3 But first, a story INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 3 Kennedy 2013

4 The NZ Police INCIS * project 1992 Annual cost of crime to the nation estimated at $NZ 4.8 Billion. Concept: 3,125 PC-workstations linked to central database Reduction in paper-work and staff Expected benefits $NZ 5.3 Billion over its lifetime Plan Total cost $NZ 203 million over 8 years 25 staff and 125 contractors To replace the Wanganui computer, a mainframe based system operating since 1976 *Integrated National Crime Investigation System INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 4 Kennedy 2013

5 The NZ Police INCIS project Initial estimate $NZ30 Million 2 phases 1994 April Cabinet approved project. Contract awarded to IBM 4000 page specification 1995 Revised user requirements Phase I projected finish: April 95, Phase II July 95 (roughly 15 months) Gauld, R and Goldfinch, S with Dale, "Dangerous Enthusiasms: E-Government, Computer Failure and Information System Development", 2006, Otago University Press INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 5 Kennedy 2013

6 The NZ Police INCIS project 2 Gauld, Goldfinch and Dale, Major changes to architecture Change in operating system from OS/2 to NT. Network protocol changed from token ring to Ethernet Projected finish: Phase I Dec 96, Phase II Jun 97 (i.e. 18 months delayed) 1997 Project 12 months behind, $7 million over Further change to system architecture Variation to contract signed, budget increased by $20m INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 6 Kennedy 2013

7 The NZ Police INCIS project 3 Gauld, Goldfinch and Dale, Revised estimate $NZ118 Million i.e. 4 times original estimate Project manager resigned 1999 March: Phase 1 complete (3000 PCs) cost estimate now $NZ126.7 Million August: the hardware supplier (IBM) pulled out Decision made not to proceed to Phase II INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 7 Kennedy 2013

8 The NZ Police INCIS * project 4 Gauld, Goldfinch and Dale, August Project cancelled (after 5 years) Only phase one completed: little more than ! NZ Government paid IBM $18 million IBM paid NZ Government $25 million Hardware (cost $7.6 million) sold for $1 million $66 million write down on other equipment Cost to NZ Government over $NZ100 Million INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 8 Kennedy 2013

9 What do you think went wrong? Who was to blame? INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 9 Kennedy 2013

10 Formula for failure Over ambitious expectations for Information Systems Use of new, un-proven technology Inadequate management reporting structure Faith in contracts Increasing system complexity Changes to specifications and scope ( scope creep ) INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 10 Kennedy 2013

11 History of success of IS projects 20-25% total failures 30-60% partial failures 30-40% exhibit some degree of escalation Success rate varied with total budget < US$ the success rate was 55% > $10 million, no projects were successful Cost overruns averaged ~200 % in Gauld, R and Goldfinch, S with Dale, "Dangerous Enthusiasms: E-Government, Computer Failure and Information System Development", 2006, Otago University Press INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 11 Kennedy 2013

12 Information System projects in the US, 1995 overall success rate about 26% 59% in the retail sector 32% in the financial sector 27% in manufacturing 18% in government. 46% projects had problems over budget, behind schedule, delivered with fewer functions / features than specified. 28% failed altogether or were cancelled in Gauld, R and Goldfinch, S with Dale, "Dangerous Enthusiasms: E-Government, Computer Failure and Information System Development", 2006, Otago University Press INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 12 Kennedy 2013

13 Standish Group's CHAOS Report 1995* 31% of software projects will be cancelled before they ever get completed 53% cost 189% of their original estimates Only a few people at The Standish Group and any one of the 360 people who received and saved the T-shirts we gave out after they completed the first survey in 1994 know what the CHAOS letters represent. Many people have tried to guess. These are grim words, and the situation has not improved since then. * INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 13 Kennedy 2013

14 In 2004 the cost of project failure across the European Union was 142 billion A study in project failure by John McManus and Trevor Wood-Harper, projects studied Average duration of projects 26 months Average budget 6 million Number of projects completed % Number of projects cancelled % Number of projects overrun (schedule and/or cost) 69* 32.4% * 37 of these projects were over 18 months late and more than 4 million over budget INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 14 Kennedy 2013

15 Reported Reasons for Project IT Failure Computing Technology Industry Association (CTIA) Survey of 1,000 respondents, 2007 INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 15 Kennedy 2013

16 Four most common reasons Incomplete project requirements (10%) Unrealistic schedules (13%) Insufficient resource planning (18%) Poor communications (28%) These are four areas that are central to the practice of PROJECT MANAGEMENT INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 16 Kennedy 2013

17 Critical success factors for project success* Rank Factor 3 clear vision and objectives 3 focussed and hardworking staff 6 user ownership 6 smaller project milestones 8 competent staff 10 realistic expectations 11 proper planning 15 clear statement of requirements 16 top management support 19 user involvement * Young, R. and E. Jordan (2008). "Top management support: Mantra or necessity?" International Journal of Project Management 26(7): INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 17 Kennedy 2013

18 Other projects with problems Sydney Opera House, 1973 Danish architect, Jørn Utzon, won a competition with an original concept, but provided no detailed plans. Initial cost estimate was $7million Final cost was $107 million, over 15 years Significant engineering challenges blamed for over-run INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 20 Kennedy 2013

19 But, there have been successes too! Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric scheme ( ) Budget $820 million employed over 100,000 people from over 30 countries entire project was completed on time and within budget Kurnell desalinisation plant Budget $1,896 million delivered in January 2010 on time $60 million under budget INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 21 Kennedy 2013

20 Light at the end of the tunnel for IS projects? Latest Standish Group Report, CHAOS Manifesto, March 3, 2011 more projects are successful and less failing than in INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 22 Kennedy 2013

21 What can we do about the problem? Project management INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 23 Kennedy 2013

22 Project Management Profession PMI: Project management institute ( world s leading not-for-profit association for the project management profession, more than half a million members and credential holders in 185 countries. PMBOK: Project management body of knowledge A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, PMI Standards Committee* * e.g. INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 24 Kennedy 2013

23 The PMBOK Guide identifies that subset of the project management body of knowledge generally recognized as good practice. provides and promotes a common vocabulary within the project management profession for discussing, writing, and applying project management concepts. INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 25 Kennedy 2013

24 What is a project? A project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product, service, or result. temporary = a definite beginning and end end = objectives have been achieved, or, the project is terminated because its objectives will not or cannot be met, or when the need for the project no longer exists. temporary does not necessarily mean short in duration. A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, PMI Standards Committee INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 26 Kennedy 2013

25 The project manager s task The aim of a project manager is to have the project completed on time and within budget, whilst at the same time satisfying the quality of work required. The project manager is bound by the so-called Triple Constraint : Time INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 27 Kennedy 2013

26 The PMBOK The PMBOK ( Project Management Body Of Knowledge ) is divided into three sections: 1. Process groups 2. Knowledge areas 3. Deliverables (outputs) INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 28 Kennedy 2013

27 The Five Process Groups 1. Initialising 2. Planning 3. Executing 4. Monitoring & Controlling 5. Closing INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 29 Kennedy 2013

28 The Five Process Groups INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 30 Kennedy 2013

29 Mnemonic: The Nine Knowledge Areas 1. Integration Management 2. Scope Management 3. Time Management 4. Cost Management 5. Quality Management 6. Human Resource Management 7. Communications Management 8. Risk Management 9. Procurement Management Ivan s steaming tea cools quickly. Howard can read poetry. INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 31 Kennedy 2013

30 What are the benefits of PMBOK framework? Covers all of the important issues for managing projects Helps you not to forget important matters or make obvious mistakes Standard across countries, industries and organisations Support is available in form of guidelines, templates etc. INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 32 Kennedy 2013

31 The key to effective project management Planning & Integration Ivan s steaming tea cools quickly. Howard can read poetry. INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 35 Kennedy 2013

32 The PMBOK matrix (Guide 2004) Five Process Groups Nine Knowledge Areas Initialising Planning Executing Monitoring & Controlling Closing Integration Management X X X X X Scope Management X X Time Management X X Cost Management X X Quality Management X X X Human Resource Management X X X Communications Management X X X Risk Management X Procurement Management X X X X INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 36 Kennedy 2013

33 Knowledge Area: Scope Management Work Breakdown Structure Estimation Ivan s steaming tea cools quickly. Howard can read poetry. INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 37 Kennedy 2013

34 Project Planning: four steps 1. Determine work breakdown structure 2. Determine dependencies between activities (tasks) 3. Estimate amount of effort required for each activity Project plan 4. Devise project schedule INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 38 Kennedy 2013

35 Work breakdown structure (WBS) a deliverable-oriented grouping of project elements that organizes and defines the total scope of the project Project Management Book of Knowledge; Project Management Institute; 1996 INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 39 Kennedy 2013

36 Work breakdown structure Lists all of the work that needs to be done Helps define the scope of the project (can also state what is NOT to going be done) Basic input to all aspects of the planning and scheduling process Lowest level of subdivided work should be small enough to permit adequate control and visibility without creating an unwieldy administrative burden. (Charles C. Martin) INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 40 Kennedy 2013

37 Elements of work breakdown structure Activity A major work category. Usually lasts no less than one day and no longer than 30 days. Task Small unit of work that makes up an activity (usually between 40 and 80 person-hours) Deliverable A unit of output that is to be delivered as the result of an activity or task INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 41 Kennedy 2013

38 Arriving at a suitable work breakdown Choose most appropriate point of view e.g. by logical or physical component, by group Achieve appropriate granularity Responsibility for each task to one person Work parcels not too big/small to manage INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 42 Kennedy G J Kennedy

39 The granularity problem (1) How much detail is enough? Does this breakdown have enough detail? Why not? Week Task Hours Buy balsa 1 <-> Build bridge 8 < > Test bridge 2 <-> INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 43 Kennedy 2013

40 The granularity problem (2) Is this enough? How do you know? INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 44 Kennedy 2013

41 Work breakdown view (1) Bridge Research Procure Build Test Theory Tools Road Clearance Plans Balsa Structure Load Design INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 45 Kennedy 2013

42 Work breakdown view (2) Bridge Plan Materials Constructio n Research Tools Road Design Balsa Structure Drawing Testing INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 46 Kennedy 2013

43 Work breakdown view (3) Bridge Bob Lisa Kurt Research Design Construction Tools Drawing Check Balsa Test INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 47 Kennedy 2013

44 Which breakdown is right? Which is correct? Are they all correct? Which is better? INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 50 Kennedy 2013

45 2. Determining dependencies Sequencing activities. Which task(s) must be completed before others can begin? INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 52 Kennedy 2013

46 Possible Task Dependencies e.g. installation cannot begin until system testing is complete e.g. software testing cannot start until programming begins e.g. documentation cannot finish until programming is finished e.g. cutover must start before you can finish operating old system INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 56 Kennedy 2013

47 Parallel activities Important to identify activities/tasks that can take place in parallel Otherwise the schedule has no flexibility It may be necessary to decompose a large activity into several smaller activities/tasks which are independent and therefore can be undertaken in parallel INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 57 Kennedy 2013

48 Milestones target dates when key project events should be completed. a clearly defined activity or deliverable may have precedents but no actual work scheduled at regular, manageable time intervals important for monitoring and communicating progress INFO5990 Lecture 04A - 58 Kennedy 2013