The office property market of Hong Kong: an econometric analysis

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1 Title The office property market of Hong Kong: an econometric analysis Author(s) Kempf, Simon P. Citation Issued Date 2004 URL Rights The author retains all proprietary rights, (such as patent rights) and the right to use in future works.

2 Chapter 9: Bibliography and References Armstrong, J.S. (1978). Long-Range Forecasting. New York, Wiley. Ball, M., Lizieri, C. & MacGregor, B.D. (1998). The economics of commercial property markets. London, Routledge. Booth, P.M. (1997). "Property forecasting in actuarial modelling and asset management". Journal of Property Finance, 8(4), Brown, G.R. (1996). "Buy-sell strategies in the Hong Kong commercial market". Journal of Property Finance, 7(4), Brown, G.R. & Chau, K.W. (1997). "Excess Returns in the Hong Kong Commercial Real Estate Market". Journal of Real Estate Research, 14(1/2), Brown, J., Fraser, W.D., MacMillan, N. & Asquith-Charlton. (2001). "An investigation of the relationships between demand, take-up, supply and rents of industrial property in Central Scotland".), Census and Statistic Department. (2003). Monthly Digests, various issues. Hong Kong. Chaplin, R. (1999). "The predictability of real office rents". Journal of Property Research, 16(1), Chau, K.W. (1998). "The implication of the differences in the growth rates of the prices of building resources and outputs in Hong Kong". Engineering, Construction and Architectual Managment, 5(38-50). Chin, W. (2003). "Macro-economic Factors Affecting Office Rental Values in Southeast Asian Cities: The case of Singapore, Hong Kong, Taipei, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok" at PRRES in Brisbane, Australia

3 Chow, G.C. (1960). "Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions". Econometrica, 52, Clapp, J.M. (1993). Dynamics of Office Markets: empirical findings and research issues. Washington, D.C., Urban Institute Press. Clark, D.L. & Dannis, C.G. (1992). "Forecasting Office Rental Rates: Neoclassical Support for Change". The Appraisal Journal, January 1992, Colin, J. (1995). "An economic basis for the analysis and prediction of local office property markets". Journal of Property Valuation & Investment, 13(2), D'Arcy, É., McGough, T. & Tsolacos, S. (1999). "An econometric analysis and forecasts of the office rental cycle in the Dublin area". Journal of Property Research, 16(4), Dobson, S.M. & Goddard, J.A. (1992). "The Determinants of Commercial Property Prices and Rents". Bulletin of Economic Research, 44(4), Dunse, N., Jones, C., Orr, A. & Tarbet, H. (1998). "The extent and limitation of local commercial property market data". Journal of Property Valuation & Investment, 16(5), Elliot, C.J. & Trevillion, E.A. (1997). Cutting Edge 1997: A systems approach to the property market. London, The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. Evans, M.K. (2003). Practical Business Forecasting. Oxford, UK, Blackwell Publishers. Gardiner, C. & Henneberry, J. (1988). "The development of a simple regional model of office rent prediction". Journal of Property Valuation & Investment, 7(36-52). Gaynor, P.E. & Kirkpatrick, R.C. (1994). Introduction To Time-Series Modeling And

4 Forecasting in Business and Economics. Singapore, McGraw-Hill Book Co. Granger, C. & Newbold, P. (1986). Forecasting Econmomic Time Series. San Diego, Academic Press, CA. Guissani, B. & Tsolacos, S. (1993). "The office market in the UK: modelling the determinants of rental values" at International Real Estate Research session of the 1993 ASSA/AREUEA Conference in Anaheim, CA Gunnelin, A. & Södelberg, B. (2002). "Term Structures in the Office Rental Market in Stockholm". Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 26(2/3), Hanke, J.E. & Reitsch, A.G. (1998). Business Forecasting. Prentice Hall, Inc. Hastings, E.M. (1995). "The Changing Face: An Examination of the Profile of P.R.C. Involvement in the Hong Kong Real Estate Market". Discussion paper series No. S0028. Hekman, J.S. (1985). "Rental adjustment and investment in the office market". Journal of American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 13(1), Hendershott, P. (1996). "Rental Adjustment and Valuation in Overbuilt Markets: Evidence from the Sydney Office Market". Journal of Urban Economics, 39, Hendershott, P., Lizieri, C. & Matysiak, G. (1999). "The Workings of the London Office Market". Real Estate Economics, 27(2), Hendershott, P., MacGregor, B. & White, M. (2002). "Explaining Real Commercial Rents Using an Error Correction Model with Panel Data". Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 24(1), Hoesli, M. & MacGregor, B. (2000). Property Investment: principles and practice of portfolio management. Harlow, Longman

5 Howarth, R.A. & Malizia, E.E. (1998). "Office Market Analysis: Improving Best Practic Techniques". Journal of Real Estate Research, 16(1), Investorwords.com 2004, 16th March 2004, 2004,< Irons, J. & Armitage, L. (2003). "The Future of Office Property" at Ninth Annual Pacific-Rim Real Estate Society Conference in Brisbane, Queensland Jones Lang Wotton Hong Kong. Lethbridge, D. & Chen, E.K.Y. The Economic Setting. MacFarland, J. & Moon, S. (2000). "Characteristics of Australian Commercial Property markets: Towards an Improved Forecasting Model" at Pacific Rim Real Estate Society Conference in Sydney, Australia Makridakis, S. & Whellwright, S.C. (1989). Forecasting Methods for Management. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Matysiak, G. & Tsolacos, S. (2001). "Identifying Short Term Real Estate Rental Performance Leading Indicators". Real Estate Finance and Investment Research Paper, ), McClure, K. (1991). "Estimating Occupied Office Space: Comparing Alternative Forecast Methodologies". The Journal of Real Estate Research, 6(3), McGough, T., Olkkonen, O. & Tsolacos, S. (2000). "The predictability of office property returns in Helsinki". Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 18(6), McGough, T. & Tsolacos, S. (1995). "Forecasting commercial rental values using

6 ARIMA models". Journal of Property Valuation & Investment, 13(5), Mitchell, P. & McNamara, P.F. (1997). "Issues in the development and application of property market forecasting: the investor's prespective". Journal of Property Finance, 8(4), Mushkat, M. (1990). The Economic Future of Hong Kong. Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc. Pecar, B. (1994). Business forecasting for management. Londong, McGraw-Hill Book Company. Peng, W. & Fan, K. (2003). "Real Estate Indicators in Hong Kong". Hong Kong Monetary Authority Quarterly Bulletin, March 2004, Perry, M., Yeung, H. & Poon, J. (1998). "Regional Office Mobility: the Case of Corporate Control in Singapore and Hong Kong". Geoforum, 29(3), Pollakowski, H., Wachter, S. & Lynford, L. (1992). "Did office market size matter in the 1980s? a time series cross-sectional analysis of metropolitan area office markets". AREUEA Journal, 20(2), Poon, T.N.T. & Chan, E.H.W. (Eds.) 1998, Real Estate Development in Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Pace Publishing Ltd. Rating and Valuation Department. (2003a).). Rating and Valuation Department. (2003b). Property Review Technical Notes. Hong Kong, Rating and Valuation Department. Ross, S.A., Westerfield, R.W. & Jaffe, J. (2002). Corporate Finance. New York, McGraw-Hill

7 Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (1989). "The Application Of Forecasting Techniques To The Property Market" at Technical Seminars held by the Society of Property Researchers and the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors in Spring Shilling, J.D., Sirmans, C.F. & Corgel, J.B. (1987). "Price Adjustment Process for Rental Office Space". Journal of Urban Economics, 22, Shilling, J.D., Sirmans, C.F. & Corgel, J.B. (1992). "Natural Office Vacancy Rates: Some Additional Estimates". Journal of Urban Economics, 31, Sivitanides, P.S. (1997). "The Rent Adjustment Process and the Structural Vacancy Rate in the Commercial Real Estate Market". Journal of Real Estate Research, 13(2), Standard Chartered Bank 2003, Asian Economic Focus - SARS masks underlying strength, < Stevenson, S. & McGarth, O. (2002). "A Comparison of Alternative Rental Forecasting Models: Empirical Tests on the London Office Market". Centre for Real Estate Research Graduate School of Business, Working Paper The Chinese Manufacturers Associations of Hong Kong 2002, Hong Kong Eonomic Outlook for 2002, < Theil, H. (1966). Applied Economic Forecasting. Amsterdam. Tse, R. (1997). "An application of the ARIMA model to real-estae prices in Hong Kong". Journal of Property Finance, 8(2), Tse, R. & Fischer, D. (2003). "Estimating Natural Vacancy Rates in Office Markets using a Time-varying Model". Journal of Real Estate Literature, 11(1), Tsolacos, S. (1998). "Econometric modelling and forecasting of new retail

8 development". Journal of Property Research, 15(4), Tsolacos, S., Keogh, G. & McGough, T. (1997). "Modelling use, investment and development in the British office market". Aberdeen papers in Land Economy Voith, R. & Crone, T. (1988). "National Vacancy Rates ant the Persistence of Shocks in U.S. Office Markets". AREUEA Journal, 16(4), Wheaton, W. (1987). "The Cyclic Behaviour of the National Office Market". Journal of American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 16(4), Wheaton, W. (1999). "Real Estate "Cycles": Some Fundamentals". Real Estate Economics, 27(2), Wheaton, W., Torto, R. & Evans, P. (1997). "The Cyclic Behavior of the Greater London Office Market". Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 15(1), White, H. (1980). "A Heteroscedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroscedasticity". Econometrica, 48(4), Whitley, J.D. (1994). A Course in Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting. Manchester. Wit, I.D. & Dijk, R.V. (2003). "The Global Determinants of Direct Office Real Estate Returns". Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 26(1), Wong, J., Ip-wing, Y., Law, E. & Fung, L. (2001). "Corporate Restructuring in Hong Kong in the Aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis". Hong Kong Monetary Authority Quarterly Bulletin, May 2001, Wong, S.-k.S. 1997, 'An analysis of the Hong Kong office property market', Master of Economics, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

9 Zhu, H. (2002). "The case of the missing commercial real estate cycle". BIS Quarterly Review, September 2002), :

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