Senior Debt for Renewable Project Financing 2 nd Renewable Energy Finance Forum. Capital Investment in Renewable Energy

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1 Senior Debt for Renewable Project Financing 2 nd Renewable Energy Finance Forum June 23, 2005 John C. S. Anderson Head, Power & Project Finance Team, Boston Capital Investment in Renewable Energy A Debt Investor s Perspective -- Hancock Investor Profile in the Power Sector Q2 2005: Investor Perspectives on the Power Industry Keys to Mobilizing Project Financing How Renewable Projects are Different 2

2 Hancock is an active investor across the Power Industry Large & Diverse Portfolio US$ 11.3 billion bond and equity portfolio US$ 9 billion in Power Invested in more than 215 power companies Power & Project Finance Portfolio Total = $11.3 billion Non-Power Project Finance, $1.3 US$ 900 million in renewable energy, one of the larger portfolios in the market US$ 4.6 billion in Project Financing Power, $9.0 Gas Utilities, $0.7 Third Party Investments, $0.3 One of the larger project finance portfolios in the market US$ 1 billion in Private Equity 3 US$ 1.2 billion invested in Renewable Energy Boston renewable portfolio dominated by hydro, waste-toenergy, geothermal, and biomass. Hancock/Manulife Renewable Power Investments, Million $US Waste-to-Energy, $220 Geothermal, $115 Toronto portfolio focused on wind & hydro investments. Hydroelectric, $593 Bio-Mass, $100 Landfill Gas, $15 Solar, $14 Wind, $136 4

3 2004 was a very good year for debt investors in Power No. of Companies Power Company Ratings Actions: upgrades downgrades Spread to Treasuries 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% Utility Bond Trading Spreads: (YTD) Utilities A Utilities BBB Jun-01 Oct-01 Feb-02 Jun-02 Oct-02 Feb-03 Jun-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Credit defaults and downgrades have slowed dramatically, and upgrades have started to match downgrades The repair is strongest at utility holding companies Many of the remaining merchant energy players not in liquidation are significantly over-levered, but have good access to capital With the stabilization of credit, and the tightening of yields, debt investors have seen the trading values of their portfolios improve dramatically. This experience has driven a tremendous recovery in market sentiment from the nadir of September Project Finance Markets Strong into 2005 The credit experience of has validated the project finance model Classic IPP financing, secured by plant assets, with repayment from a power purchase agreement with a loadserving entity, performed well during the power crisis: We have seen project bonds experience lower rates of default than unsecured bonds of the power companies that were buying their power: Pacific Gas & Electric We have seen projects experience better post-default recovery than unsecured bonds of the power companies that were buying their power: National Energy & Gas Transmission also saw the expansion of the PF investor base Foreign bank appetite for projects came back to the market, reversing the pull-back in 2002, and increasing availability and reducing cost of capital Hedge fund involvement in the project finance bond markets opened up unprecedented capacity for High Yield project structures: Astoria, Tenaska Oklahoma, Juniper, FPL Wind II Hedge fund involvement in the investment-grade project finance bond markets expanded the investor base and liquidity for investment-grade projects: Tenaska Alabama, Kiowa Power Partners 6

4 Keys to Mobilizing Project Financing: Why is debt financing important: Delivered cost of power is dominated by cost of capital, then cost of fuel, then other costs Illustrative Power Project Equity Returns Unlevered Equity Return 12% Debt financing structure has the biggest single impact in lowering overall cost of capital for a project With Corporate Debt Leverage 14% What debt investors like: Project Finance Debt Leverage 20% Sponsor track record and readiness to put capital at risk Proven technology Long-term contracts with fixed profit margin Credit-worthy counterparties Project Finance Debt Pricing 18% What is hard to lend against: Commodity price risk Spot market volatility Regulatory out clauses Upside in renewable energy credits or undefined renewable portfolio standards 7 How are Renewable projects different? Cost of delivered power more heavily dominated by cost of capital increasing the importance of debt financing Capital Cost/MWh High, 95% Resource risk for hydro, geothermal, and wind that you don t face in a thermal plant High, 65% Low, 70% offset by free fuel and a strong ultimate-recovery lending rationale. Merchant risk can be easier to take Example: all Hancock merchant energy investing in 2004 was in renewable portfolios Low, 25% Thermal Renewable Renewable development is a bigger share of the market than in the past Example: 10% of the Hancock power portfolio, 14% of our investments in 2004 Having Tax Appetite Matters 8

5 Contact John C. S. Anderson Managing Director Head, Power & Project Finance Group John Hancock Financial Services, Inc. 200 Clarendon Street, 58 th Floor Boston, MA Phone: (617)