IAB Discussion Paper

Transcription

1 IAB Discussion Paper 7/2013 Aricles on labour marke issues Trade and qualificaion Linking qualificaion needs o Germany s expor flows Anke Mönnig Gerd Zika Tobias Maier ISSN

2 Trade and Qualificaion Linking qualificaion needs o Germany s expor flows Anke Mönnig (Insiue for Economic Srucures Research (GWS), Osnabrück) Gerd Zika (IAB) Tobias Maier (Federal Insiue for Vocaional Educaion and Training (BIBB), Bonn) Mi der Reihe IAB-Discussion Paper will das Forschungsinsiu der Bundesagenur für Arbei den Dialog mi der exernen Wissenschaf inensivieren. Durch die rasche Verbreiung von Forschungsergebnissen über das Inerne soll noch vor Drucklegung Kriik angereg und Qualiä gesicher werden. The IAB-Discussion Paper is published by he research insiue of he German Federal Employmen Agency in order o inensify he dialogue wih he scienific communiy. The promp publicaion of he laes research resuls via he inerne inends o simulae criicism and o ensure research qualiy a an early sage before prining. IAB-Discussion Paper 7/2013 2

3 Conens Absrac... 4 Zusammenfassung Inroducion Mehodology The Modelling Framework The mulisecoral macroeconomic model IAB/INFORGE The Trade Module: Deermining Expors Modelling Occupaion and Qualificaion Design of Analysis Germany s rade in expors Expor-induced Impacs - Saus-Quo and Forecas unil Aggregae expor-induced Producion and Employmen Expor-induced Producion and Employmen on Indusrial Level Expor-induced employmen by occupaion Expor-induced employmen by qualificaion Summary and Conclusion References IAB-Discussion Paper 7/2013 3

4 Absrac Foreign markes deermine success and failure of hose indusries ha have become relian on foreign demand, impair he demand for employmen and invoke changes in occupaional fields and qualificaion requiremens. This paper aims o disclose he direc and indirec influence of major rading parners on Germany s producion, employmen, and qualificaion needs. I projecs he effecs by using he dynamic macro-economeric inpu-oupu model INFORGE. Indusrialised economies are he mos imporan deerminans for employmen in he manufacuring indusries. Business-relaed services are highly indirecly affeced. The growh impac of indusrialised naions is declining while BRICS naions are gaining momenum. A shif owards higher qualificaion needs can be observed. Zusammenfassung Ausländische Märke besimmen über Erfolg oder Misserfolg von Branchen, die von der Auslandsnachfrage abhängig geworden sind, beeinrächigen die Arbeisnachfrage und verändern Berufs- und Qualifikaionsanforderungen. Dieses Papier unersuch die direken und indireken Einflüsse der wichigsen Handelsparner auf die Produkion, die Beschäfigung und den Qualifikaionsbedarf in Deuschland. Zur Quanifizierung dieser Effeke wird das dynamische makro-ökonomerische Inpu- Oupu-Modell IAB/INFORGE verwende. Die hochenwickelen Indusrieländer sind die wichigsen Deerminanen für die Beschäfigung im Verarbeienden Gewerbe. Unernehmensbezogene Diensleisungen sind nur indirek beroffen. Das Wachsum der Indusrienaionen is jedoch rückläufig, während die BRICS Saaen an Dynamik gewinnen. Eine Verschiebung hin zu höheren Qualifikaionsanforderungen konne beobache werden. JEL classificaion: F16, F17, F14 Keywords: projecion, labour demand, occupaional field, qualificaion level, inernaional rade, inpu-oupu analysis IAB-Discussion Paper 7/2013 4

5 1 Inroducion Sudies on foreign rade and is economic impacs are numerous. Since Ricardo (1817), i is sandard economic hinking ha inernaional division of work is welfare enhancing even if a counry shows comparaive disadvanages in he producion of all goods. Based on ha, free rade has been seen as superior o proecionism alhough laer sudies e.g. Samuelson (2004) relaivised Ricardo by showing consellaions when inernaional division of work can also lead o a permanen loss in welfare. Neverheless, accompanied by he insiuional seing of he General Agreemen on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in he wake of he Second World War, he world experienced a fas increase of oal rade. Beween 1950, wo years afer GATT came ino force, and 2010, fifeen years afer he se-up of he GATT s successor he World Trade Organizaion (WTO), world merchandise expors increased on average by 6% per year, while world merchandise producion only increased by 3.7% p.a. 1 Graph 1 World merchandise in expors and producion, Source: For Germany, he rade channel has become one of he major conribuors o economic growh. In he las years, sudies on foreign rade in Germany concenraed mosly on he analysis of he phenomenon of he bazaar economy ha was firs inroduced o he German economy by Sinn (2005). Whereas some sudies concenraed more on he inernaional comparison of expor-induced performances (Ahler 2012, Brauzsch/Ludwig 2005), ohers esed he bazaar-hypohesis (Kfw 2004) or exended he analysis by is effec on he labour marke (IMK 2008). All sudies are 1 Daa aken from he webpage of he World Trade Organisaion IAB-Discussion Paper 7/2013 5

6 based on he applicaion of inpu-oupu ables as hey differeniae beween inermediae and final, direc and indirec as well as beween domesic and impored goods and services. Differen o mos oher sudies, Prognos (2011) has conneced German expors o major rading parners of Germany and measured heir direc and indirec impac on Germany s economic performance in erms of producion and employmen. The paper a hand aims o exen his analysis in wo imporan fields. 1. Firs, his paper applies a dynamic economeric inpu-oupu-model which produces a long-erm projecion and hence enables o look a fuure changes in expor srucures and is effecs on he domesic economy. 2. Second, his paper enhances he employmen analysis by connecing employmen by indusries o occupaional fields and qualificaion levels. The analysis is conduced by applying inpu-oupu analysis on a dynamic macroeconomeric forecasing and simulaion, single-counry model. The applied mehodology is inroduced in more deail in he following chaper. Then, he srucure of Germany s expor relaions is idenified. Following-up, he expor-induced effecs on producion, employmen, occupaion and qualificaion are presened. The paper closes wih a summary and implicaions of he resuls. 2 Mehodology 2.1 The Modelling Framework This paper uses a modelling approach ha exends he dynamic macro-economeric inpu-oupu model INFORGE (Maier e al. 2013, Ahler e al. 2009) in wo economic areas: Firs, German expors are linked o and deermined by a rade module ha explicily considers bilaeral rade by counries and by producs. Second, he labour marke is exended by a labour demand module ha convers employmen by economic indusries o employmen by occupaional fields and qualificaion levels. 2 Figure 1 shows an overview of he modelling framework. The economic core of he model including he rade module is represened by he macroeconomic IAB/INFORGE model. Whereas he IAB/INFORGE model iself is basically consruced as a boom-up model, he overall modelling framework follows a op-down approach wih no feedbacks from employmen by occupaional fields and/or employmen by qualificaion levels. In he subsequen secors, he macroeconomic IAB/INFORGE model and is rade module are described in deail followed by he specificaion of he ransformaion of employmen o occupaional fields and qualificaion levels. 2 Compare also IAB-Discussion Paper 7/2013 6

7 Figure 1 Simplified Illusraion of he Modelling Framework The mulisecoral macroeconomic model IAB/INFORGE The IAB/INFORGE-model has been developed by he Insiue of Economic Srucures Research (GWS) and has been esed in numerous applicaions in he field of research and policy analysis (Ulrich e al. 2012, Barker e al. 2011, Lindenberger 2010). The model belongs o he INFORUM family of modelling (Almon 1991) ha ress on wo basic fundamenals: Boom-up consrucion and oal inegraion. The former indicaes ha each indusrial secor is modeled individually and ha macroeconomic variables are calculaed hrough explici aggregaion. This approach ensures ha each individual secor is embedded wihin he economic conex and ha indusrial inerdependencies are explicily incorporaed and used o explain economic ineracion. The laer describes a complex and simulaneous soluion which akes ino consideraion iner-indusrial dependence as well as he disribuion of income, he redisribuion effecs of he sae and he usage of income for goods. Thus, he inpu-oupu ables are fully implemened in he naional accouns (Ahler e al. 2009, Diselkamp e al. 2003). Boh daases are specified for improving he idenificaion for gross fixed capial formaion, privae consumpion, sae consumpion and foreign rade. Labour marke specifics are consisenly embedded in he macroeconomic conex hrough oupu and uni coss. Macroeconomic indicaors are deermined by aggregaion of 59 indusries. INFORGE solves simulaneously, is dynamic over ime and is described by nonlinear funcions. Is basic daase consiss of inpu-oupu-ables and naional accouns. The applied model in his paper follows he school of evoluionary economics (Nelson/Winer 1982) as feaures like echnological change, imperfec compei- IAB-Discussion Paper 7/2013 7

8 ion and inerdependencies, or parially sicky prices are sandard characerisics. In INFORGE, parameers and heir elasiciy values are esimaed economerically wih given ime series for a large number of variables. An inegral elemen of inpu-oupu-modelling is he deerminaion of inermediae demand beween indusries. Inpu coefficiens represen he relaion of inermediae demand o oal producion. In IAB/INFORGE echnological change is idenified by applying variable inpu coefficiens. They are endogenously deermined by relaive prices and ime rend. Using he Leonief-inverse (I-A) -1 wih A as inpu coefficien marix and I as ideniy marix and muliplying i wih final demand (fd), gross producion (y) by 59 indusries is given. In he following equaions he noaions are as follows: Lower case leers are vecors, upper case leers are eiher imes series or marices. The dimension of vecors and marices are indicaed wih subscrips. The subscrip indicaes ime dependency. y = I A 1 fd [1] ( ) In many macroeconomic models, privae consumpion is based on he almos ideal demand sysem (AIDS) approach (e.g. Kraena/Wüger 2006), which allows for he esimaion of consumpion srucures according o uiliy maximizaion behaviour and consequenly does build upon he assumpion of a represenaive individual (Deaon/Muelbauer 1980). Differen o his approach, INFORGE esimaes consumpion paerns by 41 purposes of use (c) as a funcion of real disposable income (Y/P) and relaive prices (p/p). For some consumpion purposes, rends (T) as proxy for longerm change in consumpion behaviour or demographic indicaors (DI) like households or differen age groups are used as explanaory variables. [2] c, = c, ( Y / P, p, / P, T, DI ) l [ 1,...,41] l i l INFORGE differeniaes beween en classificaions of he funcions of governmens for modelling sae expendiures as final consumpion. 80% of oal expendiures are due o four governmen funcions alone: (i) public adminisraion, (ii) educaion, (iii) healh and (iv) social welfare. Driving forces for sae consumpion are disposable income of he governmen (YG), employmen (E) as well as demographic change (B). [3] g k, = gk, ( YG, E, B ) k [ 1,...,10] Gross fixed capial formaion is he resul of separae modelling of producion invesmen (including oher invesmens in equipmen) and building invesmen. Producion invesmens (i) by 59 indusries are deermined by indusrial producion (y). In some indusries ime lags are explicily considered. [4] i i ( y y ) i [ 1,...,59] i, = i, i,, i, 1 IAB-Discussion Paper 7/2013 8

9 Prices are esimaed economerically. Basic prices (p) which are decisive for enrepreneurs are he resul of uni coss (uc) and mark-up pricing. The exen o which mark-up pricing can be realised depends on he marke form prevailing in specific indusrial secors. In indusries wih monopolisic srucures, mark-up pricing is easier o realize han in compeiive indusrial srucures. Indusries ha are srong in expors also have o consider impor prices (pim) as hey are exposed o foreign compeiors as well. [5] = p ( uc pim ) i [ 1,...,59] p i, i, i,, i, The labour demand funcion depends on he number of hours employees work (volume of work). This approach depends on wo imporan observaions: Firs, a volume-based approach o labour demand considers he growing imporance of parime employees; second, labour policy insrumens such as shor-ime work can be explicily addressed. Working hours (h) are deermined by secor-specific producion (y). In some indusries real wages (ae/p) are also influenial. h i, = hi, ( aei, / pi,, yi, ) [6] i [ 1,...,59] Average earnings are deermined by using a Phillips curve approach. Accordingly, average earnings by indusry (ae) on he one hand depend on ariff wages (AE) (e.g. in machine consrucion) and on he oher hand on secor-specific produciviy (y/h). ae i, = aei, ( AE, yi, / h ) [7] i [ 1,...,59] Finally, he number of employees (e) is derived by definiion, dividing he number of working hours (h) by working ime per year and head (hy). The laer is prese exogenously. e i [ 1,...,59] i, = i, / i, [8] h hy The Trade Module: Deermining Expors In INFORGE, world rade iself is handled as an exogenous facor bu wih a more sophisicaed modelling approach han normally observed a sand-alone, singlecounry models. In he rading parner economies, feedback effecs via wage, price or volume adapaion are no considered. Expors are driven by exogenously given world rade dynamics for German goods which are modelled in wo dimensions: By goods and services and by expor demanding counries. This allows accouning for diverging speeds in economic developmens as well as for differen demand srucures by counries. Saring poin in INFORGE are he economic forecass (gdpf) for 54 counries and wo regions (OPEC and Res of World) aken from he Inernaional Moneary Fund 3, 3 World Economic Oulook Daabase of he Inernaional Moneary Fund (IMF). IAB-Discussion Paper 7/2013 9

10 he European Commission 4 and he Inernaional Energy Agency 5. The impor share (impq) is calculaed for each counry. The raio is assumed o remain consan over ime. The developmen of impors (impf) is specified by he economic growh pah of each rading parner. = cc [ 1,...,56] [9] impf cc, impqcc, /100* gdpfcc, Bilaeral rade marices 6 (TRAD) for Germany are applied o deermine he share of Germany in each counry s impor funcion (impqd). In he baseline scenario, hese shares remain consan. This implies ha Germany can remain is srong inernaional posiion wihin he impor porfolio of is expor parners, bu i is no in he posiion o expand is impac furher. [10] impqd cc, ( TRADg, cc, )/10000 / impfcc, = cc [ 1,...,56 ], g [ 1,...,43] g Toal expor demand for German producs can be derived by muliplying he impor shares (impqd) wih he projeced impor demand (impf) of each economy. The oal expor demand is disribued o 43 caegories of goods by using he expor shares on oal expor demand aken from he bilaeral rade marices (TRADQ). In he baseline scenario, hese shares remain consan which means ha Germany s exporing parners do no change heir produc demand srucure owards Germany. [11] TRAD g, cc, = TRADQg, cc, / 100* ( impqdcc, * impfcc, *10000) cc [ 1,...,56 ], g [ 1,...,43] The sum over all counries (exnsv) is hen used o esimae German expors (x)., cc [ 1,...,56 ], g [ 1,...,43] exnsvg = g, cc, / [12] ( TRAD ) cc, = cc [ 1,...,56 ], g [ 1,...,43] [13] x ( exnsv ) x j j, g, Modelling Occupaion and Qualificaion On he occupaional level he classificaions of he BIBB 7 occupaional fields (Tiemann e al. 2009) are applied: They consis of 54 occupaional fields which show comparable job characerisics and indusry dominance when grouped a he level of occupaional caegories (3-digi codes from he official German classificaion of occupaions 1992 (KldB 92)). On he qualificaion level a differeniaion was made on Ameco Daabase of he European Commission (EC). World Energy Oulook of he Inernaional Energy Agency (IEA). Published by he Organizaion of Economic Cooperaion and Developmen (OECD). BIBB Bundesinsiu für Berufsbildung is he Federal Insiue for Vocaional Educaion and Training. IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

11 four levels, in line wih he ISCED classificaion. The daa on occupaional fields and qualificaions is based on long ime series from he micro census, which is a one per cen sample of he oal populaion and provides resuls for he enire range of employmen (including he self-employed, assisans, civil servans and soldiers). However, only he respecive srucures (percenages) from he micro census are used for he final resuls, as he daa on he employed from he IAB/INFORGE model which is aken as a saring poin is based on he benchmark figures from he naional accouns. On he basis of daa from he micro censuses from 1996 o 2008 we generae he informaion how many people were employed in each occupaional field in each indusrial secor, and how many of hose employed in each occupaional field had which kind of qualificaion. This gives rise o shares which reflec he disribuion of occupaional fields in he economic secor for each year (share marix P), and he configuraion according o he highes qualificaion for each occupaional field (share marix Q). To forecas he fuure labour demand, hese shares are exrapolaed in ime as rends. Variaions from a long erm monoone rend are considered as random. For each share o i () here will be a long erm sauraion level a*i which will be approached asympoically by o i (). However, i mus be noed ha (1.) a*i can only have a value beween 0 and 1, and (2.) hey mus add up o 1 in every indusrial secor or occupaional field a all imes. Thus, by aking he above resricions ino accoun, 54 rends are calculaed for each of he 59 indusrial secors, and five rends for each of he 54 occupaional fields. Afer a series of analyses i was shown ha logisic rend exrapolaion delivered he mos susainable resuls for he problem area a hand. Wih regard o logisic rend esimaion, i is assumed ha he esimaed shares asympoically approach a sauraion level. A he same ime i is warraned ha boh condiions menioned above are me by he seleced esimaion procedure. [14] 1 ( 1+ exp( an, i + bn, i ) ) o n [ 1,...,54 ], i [ 1,...,59] n, i, = 54 = o n 1 n, i, Here p n,i, represens he share of labour in occupaional field (n) wihin indusrial secor (i) a ime () wih a n,i and b n,i as he parameers o be esimaed. Accordingly, he formula for he qualificaion shares is as follows: [15] 1 ( 1+ exp( am, n + bm, n ) ) q m [ 1,...,5 ], n [ 1,...,54] m, n, = 5 = q m 1 m, n, q m,n, represens he share of labour wih qualificaion level (m) in occupaional field (n) a ime () wih a m,n and b m,n as he parameers o be esimaed. IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

12 2.2 Design of Analysis The calculaion of expor-induced direc and indirec producion and employmen belongs o sandard inpu-oupu-analysis (Holub/Schnabl 1994). Similar o equaion [1], he deerminaion of expor-induced producion (y x ) needs he Leonief-inverse (I-A) -1 bu insead of muliplying i wih oal final demand, only he expor vecor (x) of equaion [13] is used. y x = I A 1 x [16] ( ) Expor-induced employmen (e x ) is rerieved by muliplying he employmen coefficien (b) lef-hand-sided wih he Leonief-Inverse and he expor vecor. e x = b* I A 1 x [17] ( ) The oal of expor-induced producion and employmen can be separaed ino direcly and indirecly induced effecs. Indirec effecs are iniiaed by iner-indusrial producion relaions and are in general higher in hose indusries ha funcion as componen supplier for oher indusries. Direc effecs are sronger in hose indusries ha produce final producs for consumers. Direc effecs of expor-induced producion and employmen can be deermined equal o equaion [16] and [17] by using he diagonal elemens of he Leonief-Inverse (Holub/Schnabl 1994). In order o deermine counry specific impulses, oal expor (x) has o be replaced in equaion [16] and [17] by counry specific expors (x cc ). 8 Counry-specific, expor-induced, direc and indirec effecs on employmen by occupaional fields and qualificaion levels are elaboraed afer he effecs on oal employmen and employmen by indusrial levels are generaed according o equaion [17]. Toal effecs on occupaional level (e xp ) are measured by using employmen effecs by indusrial levels (e x ) muliplied wih he esimaed share marix O. 9 = n [ 1,...,54 ], i [ 1,...,59] xp x [18] e * O e n, i, Accordingly, employmen effecs on qualificaion levels (e xq ) are rerieved by applying he share marix Q. = m [ 1,...,5 ], n [ 1,...,54] xp x [19] e e * Qm, n, 3 Germany s rade in expors The growh conribuion of expors in Germany, as shown in Graph 2, was mosly posiive and dominaing o he oher deerminans of GDP in he pas. Bu in 2009, 8 9 Refer back o chaper for he calculaion and inegraion of German expors by 54 counries and 2 regions in INFORGE. The share marix P and is forecasing approach were explained in chaper IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

13 he vulnerabiliy of he German economy due o is srong exposure o foreign rade became more han eviden wih a decline in real GDP of -5.1%. The negaive growh impac of expors reached he level of -6.5%. Wihin one year, he recovery process, iniiaed by worldwide simulus packages of esimaed 2,000 billion USD, le o a srong economic upswing ha persised unil Again, he expor channel was he major driving force o his developmen. Graph 2 Growh impac o GDP, Source: German Federal Saisical Office. German foreign rade is srongly concenraed on cerain regions and single economies. Laes available daa from 2009 show ha he greaes influence on Germany s rade balance wih a share of 80% comes from he leading indusrialised economies grouped in he OECD % alone is deermined by he counries of he European Union. By individual counries, France is he mos imporan rading parner for Germany. The mos imporan non-european economy in erms of expors are he Unied Saes wih a share of 6.7% on Germany s expors. The fas developing economies of he BRICS-group ask for 9.6% of German producs whereof half is solely due o demand from China. 10 Bilaeral rade marices of he OECD. IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

14 In Graph 3, he growh impac of he seven leading indusrialised economies (G7) and he major developing economies (BRICS 11 ) is shown for he period from 1995 o The G7 12 region holds a share of 40% on Germany s expors and was especially responsible for Germany s high expor growh raes in early Is growh impac is declining since hen, whereas he growh impac of he BRICS economies remains on a consan and seadily increasing pah. The downswing in 2009 in foreign rade is mosly due o declining demand in indusrialised naions. Graph 3 Growh impac of G7 and BRICS on Germany s expors, BRICS G7 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0-2,0-4,0-6,0-8,0-10, [%] Source: OECD Bilaeral Trade Marices own calculaions. On produc level, he same dominan expor srucure is eviden (Graph 4). Excep for machinery equipmen and wase, he demand from non-oecd economies exceeds 20% (compare Graph 4). 11 Brazil, Russia, India, China, Souh Africa 12 The G7-group comprises Germany, he USA, Japan, UK, Canada, France and Ialy. IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

15 Graph Expors by producs and regions of desinaion 2009 Source: OECD Bilaeral Trade Marices own calculaions. 4 Expor-induced Impacs - Saus-Quo and Forecas unil 2025 In he subsequen chapers, he resuls of he forecas are shown for a seleced number of years. The resuls have o be inerpreed according o heir underlying mehodology. The analysis described in chaper 2.2 is designed o show only he gross effecs on producion and employmen. The ne effecs of he analysis are lower as he conaining effecs of impors are considered. Furher, he analysis concenraes foremos on he disclosure of srucural changes iniiaed by expors over ime and less on he explici figures wihin a cerain year. The counry-specific, expor-induced changes are aggregaed and limied o hree regions: BRICS, NAFTA and Eurozone. The choice of regions is due o hree reasons: firs, he BRICSquine assembles hose counries wih he highes speed in economic developmen and, simulaneously, wih a comparaively high share in German expors. Second, he NAFTA region represens a counry group ha includes indusrialized economies 13 The NAFTA (Norh American Free Trade Agreemen) is a rilaeral rade bloc creaed by he USA, Canada and Mexico. 14 ROW is he abbreviaion for res of he world. 15 BRICS is he abbreviaion of he five fas-developing counries Brazil, Russia, India, China and Souh-Africa. IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

16 wih a high share in German expors. Third, he Eurozone covers a homogenous group of economies ha are no only member of he European Union bu also of he European Currency Union. 4.1 Aggregae expor-induced Producion and Employmen Direc and indirec, expor-induced producion and employmen in oal (Graph 5) and by regions (Graph 6) are shown for a seleced number of years in he following. Graph 5 illusraes ha expor-induced producion has nearly ripled from 1995 o 2007 and will furher increase unil 2025 albei o a slighly slower exen. Direc effecs on producion have exceeded indirec effecs in he pas. The raio will change a he laes in 2020 when indirec expor-induced producion will be predominan. In 2007, expor-induced direc producion held a share of 29% on oal producion; by 2025, his share will subsanially increase o slighly over 40%. The resul indicaes ha on he one hand, expor-induced producion remains he leading facor for overall growh. And, on he oher hand, inermediae producion is gaining momenum as he indirec producion effecs are dominan in he fuure. The gross effecs on employmen also show a consan and srong upswing in direcly and indirecly expordependen workplaces. The developmen is slower compared o producion in curren prices. During 1995 and 2007, he number of expor-induced employees has no even doubled. Wihin he nex fifeen years, he developmen will slow down considerably bu he oal number of expor-induced employees (gross effec) is sill increasing. By he end of he projecion horizon, he number of workplaces indirecly dependen on expor is exceeding. The slower developmen on he labour marke is explained by he sluggish labour marke. In relaion o he oal number of employees, he numbers of employees direcly exposed o expors amouned o 15% in Unil 2025, he raio will increase slighly o 18%. Graph 5 Expor-induced producion and employmen (gross) all counries Producion Direc Indirec [bn Euro] Employmen Direc Indirec [sd] Source: Own calculaions. IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

17 Wih respec o differen regions, he developmens in he pas and in he fuure differ considerably. The Eurozone, Nafa and BRICS encoun for around 60% of oal expor-induced gross producion and gross employmen. The Eurozone wih presenly 40% conribues he sronges share on expor-induced (gross) producion and employmen. However, already since he lae 1990s, he Eurozone faces a declining share on expor-induced producion and employmen and, by 2025, he share will have been subsanially reduced o 34%. The same is rue for he NAFTA region wih he USA, Canada and Mexico as leading economies. Wih currenly 8% on oal expor-induced producion and employmen, his region experienced is greaes influence on Germany s producion in he year 2000 wih a share on expor-induced producion of 12% respecively 11% on employmen. In conras, he BRICS naions sared in 1995 wih a share in producion and employmen of 5%. Unil he lae 1990s, his raio remained more or less consan bu sared o increase seadily in he early years of he 2 nd cenury. By now, he expor-induced producion and employmen share is a 12% respecively 13%. Wih ha, he impac of he BRICS naions has already exceeded he impac of he NAFTA region and is seadily closingup o he Eurozone. By 2025, i is projeced ha around 18% of expor-induced producion and 19% of expor-induced employmen is due o increasing demand for German producs in he BRICS counries. Graph 6 Expor-induced employmen by regions (gross) Eurozone Nafa BRICS [% of oal employmen] Source: Own calculaions. 4.2 Expor-induced Producion and Employmen on Indusrial Level Direc and indirec expor-induced producion for he year 2007 and 2025 is given for he fifeen larges indusries in Graph 7. Expor-induced producion is he larges for moor vehicles in 2007, followed by chemical producs and machineries. Whereas IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

18 he expor-induced producion is by majoriy direcly generaed, he expor-induced producion of chemical goods is also largely moivaed by indirec expor demand. The same holds o a lile lesser exen for machinery producs. Bu he larges indirec effec of expor-induced producion is focused on business-relaed services. Unil 2025, he producion of chemical producs becomes he larges indusry exposed o expors, followed by machineries. Relaive o he chemical and machinery indusries, moor vehicle producers reduce in comparison heir expor-dependency. Sill, he auomobile indusry increases also heir oal volume in expors. Graph 7 Expor-induced producion (gross) by producs 2007 direc indirec Moor Vehicles, Trailers and Semi-Trailers Chemicals Machinery Basic Maels Business-relaed Services Fabricaed Meal Producs Elecrical Machinery and Apparaus n.e.s Radio, Television and Communicaion Equipmen Rubber and Plasics Producs Whole Sale Food producs and Beverages Coke, Refined Peroleum Producs and Nuclear Fuel Transpor Services Medical, Precision and Opical Insrumens [bn Euro] 2025 direc indirec Chemicals Machinery Moor Vehicles, Trailers and Semi-Trailers Business-relaed Services Basic Maels Fabricaed Meal Producs Elecrical Machinery and Apparaus n.e.s Coke, Refined Peroleum Producs and Nuclear Fuel Radio, Television and Communicaion Equipmen Rubber and Plasics Producs Food producs and Beverages Whole Sale Oher Transpor Equipmen Medical, Precision and Opical Insrumens [bn Euro] Source: Own calculaions. IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

19 Direc and indirec expor-induced employmen for he year 2007 and 2025 is given for he fifeen larges indusries in Graph 8. Business-relaed services display he larges number of expor-induced employees in 2007, followed by far by machinery and auomobile indusry. Graph 8 Expor-induced employmen (gross) by producs 2007 direc indirec Business-relaed Services Machinery Moor Vehicles, Trailers and Semi-Trailers Fabricaed Meal Producs Chemicals Whole Sale Elecrical Machinery and Apparaus n.e.s Basic Meals Transpor Services Rubber and Plasics Producs Transpor-relaed Services Agriculure, Huning, Foresry Medical, Precision and Opical Insrumens Food producs and Beverages [sd] 2025 direc indirec Business-relaed Services Machinery Fabricaed Meal Producs Transpor Services Moor Vehicles, Trailers and Semi-Trailers Elecrical Machinery and Apparaus n.e.s Chemicals Whole sale Basic Maels Rubber and Plasics Producs Agriculure, Huning, Foresry Food producs and Beverages Transpor-relaed Services Medical, Precision and Opical Insrumens Radio, Television and Communicaion Equipmen [sd] Source: Own calculaions. IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

20 The large number of expor-induced employees in he business-relaed service secor is mainly due o indirec effecs which emphasises he dependency of his secor o oher indusries. This dependency can be direcly linked o he imporance of labour leasing for he manufacuring indusries. Oher indusries ha reflec a high indirec dependency on expors wih respec o employmen are he whole sale secor, he ranspor secor as well as he secor relaed o he producion of crude oil and naural gas. The expor-induced employmen in he moor vehicle indusry is mainly direcly linked o he expor channel. The same holds for he food producing indusry as well as he indusry for medical, precision and opical insrumens. Unil 2025, he business-relaed service secor remains he indusry wih he larges direcly and indirecly dependen workplaces. The indirec effec is even larger. Graph 9 Expor-induced producion by regions and seleced producs Eurozone NAFTA BRICS Auomobile Machinery Chemicals Source: Own calculaions. [in % of oal producion by goods] The major expor producs of Germany are indusrial producs. The highes expor shares hold auomobiles, machinery and equipmen and chemical producs. The following graph illusraes he share of regions on expor-induced producion by producs. 16 All hree produc caegories illusrae he same endency as oulined 16 The figures do no show he share on oal expor-induced producion! IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

21 above: The share of expor-dependen producion o he Eurozone is declining, while he share of he BRICS s expor-induced producion is increasing. Bu apar from ha, he hree produc groups differ considerably in deail. While he chemical indusry shows he highes dependency on expors ino he hree regions and he highes share of expor-induced producion by he Eurozone, he machinery indusry reveals a very srong dependence of expor-induced producion on he fas developing economies. The auomobile indusry insead shows a producion dependency somewhere siuaed beween boh exremes. Already oday he machinery indusry relies excepionally srong on expors bound o he BRICS naions. Unil 2025, he share will increase o roughly 30%, whils in he case of auomobiles or chemical producs he share will increase beween 15% and 20%. The auomobile indusry illusraes is srong dependence on he wo larges car markes of he world, he USA and China. The NAFTA region has he sronges impac on auomobile producion bu he BRICS region is gaining momenum if only recenly. 4.3 Expor-induced employmen by occupaion The effecs of he ransmission of expor-induced employmen by economic secors o expor-induced employmen by occupaional fields are displayed for he years 2007 and 2025 for he fifeen mos affeced occupaions in Graph 10. By far, clerical work is he field which mosly relaes o expor flows. This is even more remarkable, as his occupaion comprises he larges number of employees: nearly 12% of all employees are grouped in his occupaional field. Alhough boh he direc and indirec channels are he sronges compared o all oher occupaions, he indirec effecs more han double he direc effecs. This significan and mosly indirec exposure o expor is linked o he observaion made in he previous chaper: Employmen in he business-relaed service secor displays he sronges direc and indirec expor-induced employmen effec. The same holds for execuive funcions. The srong effecs on echnical occupaions are he resul of he high expor-exposure of he manufacuring indusry in oal. Noiceable is he relaively srong indirec effec on labourers in ranspor. This accouns for he high indirec expor-induced employmen effecs in he ranspor service secor. Unil 2025, expor-induced employmen effecs by occupaional fields are increasing, despie a shif in he srucural composiion. Occupaions relaed o he businessrelaed service secor and indirec effecs are geing more prominen. Parallel, more service-oriened jobs are becoming more prominen like e.g. in he field of informaion and communicaion or of ranspor services. IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

22 Graph 10 Expor-induced employmen (gross) by occupaion 2007 direc indirec Clerical workers Indusry and ool mechanics Managers Technicians Engineers Meal, machinery and relaed rades workers Cleaners and was disposal workers Labourers in ranspor Hand packers, oher ranpor workers Meal processing labourers Elecrical and elecronic rades workers Unskilled workers Clerical suppor workers Informaion and communicaions echnicians Manufacuring labourers [sd] 2025 direc indirec Clerical workers Managers Indusry and ool mechanics Cleaners and was disposal workers Technicians Engineers Labourers in ranspor Meal, machinery and relaed rades workers Hand packers, oher ranpor workers Meal processing labourers Informaion and communicaions echnicians Elecrical and elecronic rades workers Clerical suppor workers Unskilled workers Agriculural, foresry and fishery labourers Source: Own calculaions. [sd] Looking a he regional influence in Graph 11, he Eurozone is he mos imporan facor in all occupaional fields. The indirec effec is especially significan in he field of clerical workers and managers. In he case of indusry and ool mechanics and echnicians, he indirec effec is comparaively small bu sill prominen. The exporinduced employmen effecs by he regions NAFTA and BRICS are equally high and significanly smaller han in he Eurozone in By 2025, employmen effecs induced by he BRICS economies have grown much faser han he employmen effecs induced by he NAFTA counries. IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

23 Graph 11 Expor-induced employmen (gross) by seleced occupaions Clerical workers Indusry and ool mechanics direc indirec direc indirec BRICS BRICS NAFTA Eurozone BRICS NAFTA NAFTA Eurozone BRICS NAFTA Eurozone Eurozone [sd] Manager [sd] Technicians direc indirec direc indirec BRICS BRICS NAFTA Eurozone BRICS NAFTA NAFTA Eurozone BRICS NAFTA Eurozone Eurozone [sd] [sd] Source: Own calculaions. 4.4 Expor-induced employmen by qualificaion Expor-induced employmen by qualificaion levels is shown in Graph 12. The mos imporan qualificaion needed o mach expor-induced employmen demand is now and in fuure he ISCED level 3b and This qualificaion level is srongly praciceoriened wih a focus on vocaional raining. The imporance of his qualificaion level reflecs he echnical and indusrial orienaion of he employmen fields mosly affeced by expors. The educaion of clerical workers is also caegorised in his qualificaion level. Higher or eriary educaion (ISCED 5a and 6) is far less imporan han expeced. Employees wih universiy degree or higher are only lile exposed o expor-induced employmen, alhough he indirec effecs are relaively sronger han in ISCED level 3b and 4. Presenly, he expor-induced effecs for primary, secondary and upper educaion (ISECD 1, 2 and 3a) 18 are similar o higher and eriary educaion levels (ISCED 5a and 6). 17 Individuals grouped in he caegory ISCED 3b have eiher successfully compleed a vocaional raining programme or finished dual educaion (e.g. Berufsschule). ISCED 3b programmes are designed o provide direc access o ISCED 5b (addiional pracical, echnical or occupaional skills wih a minimum duraion of wo years full-ime equivalen a he eriary level) like vocaional schools (Fachschulen) or universiies of cooperaive educaion (Berufsakademien). ISCED 4 qualificaions describe pos-secondary non eriary educaion and are designed for hose individuals who have compleed ISCED This caegory covers all seps of basic educaion unil secondary level (ISCED 1 and 2) and includes programmes designed o provide direc access o ISCED 5a (programmes and professions wih high skills requiremens) like universiies. The qualificaion remains below Phd level. IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

24 The developmen unil 2025 displays ha qualificaion needs gene do no shif o a large exen. Bu i becomes eviden ha higher qualificaion increasingly maers wih respec o expor-induced employmen. Higher educaion increases faser han oher ISCED levels. Graph 12 Expor-induced employmen (gross) by qualificaion Source: Own calculaions. The regional effecs by qualificaion levels are illusraed in he following graphs. Similar o he effecs on occupaional fields, he Eurozone is he dominan driver on all four displayed qualificaion levels. In he fuure, his prominen saus remains. IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

25 Bu i is ineresing o noice ha he influence of he Eurozone on qualificaion levels increases especially in he more qualified ISCED levels 3b o 6 whereas he effecs remain more or less consan for he lower qualificaion levels. In conras, he influence arising from rade o he BRICS economies shows also impacs on lower qualificaion levels. Graph 13 Expor-induced employmen (gross) by seleced qualificaions ISCED 5a & 6 (universiy level, advanced research qualificaion) ISCED 3b & 4 (pos-secondary non eriary educaion) direc indirec direc indirec BRICS NAFTA Eurozone BRICS NAFTA Eurozone BRICS NAFTA Eurozone BRICS NAFTA Eurozone [sd] [sd] ISCED 1, 2 & 3a (primary, secondary, secondary upper educaion) direc indirec BRICS NAFTA Eurozone BRICS NAFTA Eurozone [sd] Source: Own calculaions. 5 Summary and Conclusion In he pas, Germany has become relian on he rade channel as one of he major conribuors o economic growh or degrowh. The 2009 recession as well as he recovery process in he years o follow was mainly driven by foreign rade developmens. The German rade srucure reveals ha Germany s rade flows are concenraed on indusrialised economies grouped in he OECD and wih over 60% of oal expors on he counries of he European Union. Meanwhile, he impac of he fas developing economies of he BRICS-quine is gaining momenum. On produc level, he increasing impac of he BRICS naions can already be observed a he example of machinery and equipmen, where he demand from non-oecd counries exceeds 20%. The paper a hand has applied he advanages of inpu-oupu analysis on idenifying he effecs of expor flows on he German labour marke. I has exended oher works on his subjec in wo imporan fields: Firs, i has applied a dynamic economeric inpu-oupu-model which produces a long-erm projecion and hence enables o look a fuure changes in rade srucures and is effecs on he domesic econ- IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

26 omy. Second, his paper has enhanced he employmen analysis by connecing employmen by indusries o occupaional fields and qualificaion levels. The resuls show ha he dependence of domesic producion and employmen on expor has increased significanly during he pas and are expeced o increase furher in he fuure. Indirec effecs are geing more and more prominen. Currenly, indusrialised economies are he mos imporan deerminans for employmen especially in he manufacuring indusries. Bu he growh impac is declining and he impac of he BRICS naions is geing more relevan by On indusrial level, he highes employmen and producion effecs are received in hose hree indusries ha accoun for roughly 40% of oal expors in Germany: The car indusry, machinery producers and he chemical indusry. Mosly direc effecs accoun for his resul. When indirec effecs are also considered, he business-relaed service secor becomes one of he secors sronges exposed o expors. This demonsraes he high dependency on oher expor-oriened indusries like he car indusry hrough work lease. Clerical workers are he sronges and mosly indirecly effeced occupaion by expor flows. Technicians, engineers and indusry and ool mechanics are srongly demanded occupaions bu far less significanly exposed o expors. Occupaions insead wih execuive funcions are becoming increasingly dominan and expor-exposed. Wih respec o formal qualificaion needs, he analysis shows ha mainly qualificaion levels wih a srong pracice orienaion (vocaional raining) depend highly on expor flows. The imporance of his qualificaion level reflecs he echnical and indusrial orienaion of he employmen fields mosly affeced by expors. Employees wih universiy degree or higher are only lile exposed o exporinduced changes. Bu in he fuure, a slighly sronger shif owards higher qualificaion needs in expor-oriened indusries can be observed: The demand for higher educaion is increasing faser han oher ISCED levels, alhough he dominance of he pracice-oriened qualificaion levels remains. The analysis shows, ha Germany s expor dependency has srong domesic effecs on producion and employmen. Labour demand srongly depends on rade and simulaes especially he fuure demand for MINT occupaions 19 and higher educaion. For policy implicaion, he rade effec on employmen should no be underesimaed. A shif owards a sronger domesic growh share as suggesed by for insance Peer Bofinger (2013) wih his demand o lower inernaional compeiiveness via a raise in wages and salaries of up o 5% would have implicaions on he specific labour demand. A less expor-dependen growh pah of Germany in he fuure would mos likely lower he demand for MINT occupaions and hence lower he pressure on he curren discussion on skill shorages. 19 MINT summarises occupaions relaed o mahemaics, informaics, naural science and echnology. IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

27 The resuls presened are gross effecs on producion and employmen induced by expor o 54 rading counries and 2 regions. Effecs iniiaed by impor flows are no considered. Fuure work on his opic should encouner his effec as he resuls he ne effecs are expeced o be smaller. Above ha, encounering he impor effecs migh also invoke subsanial impacs on srucural levels including indusries, occupaions and qualificaions. Hence, he implicaions of a ne effec analysis on indusrial secors, occupaional fields and qualificaion levels migh differ o he presened gross effecs no only in heigh bu also in is srucural composiion. The applicaion of he mehodology o oher componens of oal demand would help o classify he expor-induced resuls. Addiionally, he idenificaion of fuure skill shorages can only be esimaed if a full-fledged labour supply forecas on occupaional and educaional level is included in he analysis. The expansion of he FTCS wih respec o moving impor quoes, could improve he impac analysis of exporinduced changes. The applied saus-quo assumpion is likely o underesimae he described effecs as expors normally grow faser han producion. Furher, he impac is likely o be underesimaed also because indirec rade flow effecs on he rading parners are no endogenized. Bu such effecs canno be capured by a single-counry model like INFORGE. Muli-counry or muli-regional macro-economeric models such as GINFORS or GRAM are more proper insrumens o include reacion funcions of he rading parner economies. References Ahler, Gerd (2012): Analyse der exporinduzieren Werschöpfung im europäischen Konex. In: IWH (Hrsg.) (2010): Neuere Anwendungsfelder der Inpu-Oupu-Analyse. Beiräge zum Halleschen Inpu-Oupu-Workshop IWH-Sonderhef 1/1012. Halle (Saale). Pp Ahler, Gerd; Diselkamp, Marin; Luz, Chrisian; Meyer, Bernd; Mönnig, Anke; Woler, Marc Ingo (2009): Das IAB/INFORGE-Modell. In: Schnur, Peer; Zika, Gerd (Hrsg.): Das IAB/INFORGE-Modell. Ein sekorales makroökonomerisches Projekions- und Simulaionsmodell zur Vorausschäzung des längerfrisigen Arbeiskräfebedarfs. Nürnberg. IAB-Bibliohek 318. Pp Almon, Clopper (1991): The INFORUM Approach o Inerindusry Modelling. In: Economic Sysems Research. Vol 3. Pp Barker, Terry; Luz, Chrisian, Meyer, Bernd; Polli, Hecor; Speck, Sefan (2011): Modelling an ETR for Europe. In: Ekins, Paul; Speck, Sefan. (Hrsg.): Environmenal Tax Reform (ETR) - A Policy for Green Growh. Oxford Universiy Press. New York. Pp Brauzsch, Hans-Ulrich; Ludwig, Udo (2005): Ganz Weseuropa auf dem Weg in die 'Basarökonomie'? In: Wirschafsdiens. Vol. 85 No. 8. Pp Deaon, Angus; Muelbauer, John (1980): An almos ideal demand sysem. In: American Economic Review. Vol 70 No. 3. Pp Diselkamp, Marin; Hohmann, Frank; Luz, Chrisian; Meyer, Bernd; Woler, Marc Ingo (2003): Das IAB/INFORGE-Modell: Ein neuer ökonomerischer Ansaz gesamwirschaflicher und länderspezifischer Szenarien. Nuremberg. Beiräge zur Arbeismark - und Berufsforschung (BeirAB) 275. IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

28 Holub, Hans-Werner; Schnabl, Hermann (1994): Inpu-Oupu-Rechnung: Inpu- Oupu-Analyse. R. Oldenbourg Verlag. München. Wien. Insius für Makroökonomie und Konjunkurforschung (IMK) (2008): Globalisierung und Beschäfigung eine Unersuchung mi der Inpu-Oupu-Mehode. Guachen des Insius für Wirschafsforschung Halle im Aufrag des IMK in der Hans-Böckler- Sifung. Abschlussberich. IMK-Sudies 1/2008. Krediansal für Wiederaufbau (Kfw) (2004): Webewerbsfähigkei der deuschen Exporindusrie und die Theorie der Basarökonomie. Kfw-Research Nr. 15. November Frankfur a. M. Kraena, Kur; Wüger, Michael (2006): PROMETEUS: Ein mulisekorale makroökonomisches Modell der öserreichischen Wirschaf. WIFO-Monasberich 3/2006. Pp Lindenberger, Diemar; Luz, Chrisian; Schlesinger, Michael (2010): Szenarien für ein Energiekonzep der Bundesregierung. In: Energiewirschafliche Tagesfragen. Vol. 60 No. 11. Pp Nelson, Richard; Winer, Sidney (1982): An Evoluionary Theory of Economic Change Cambridge. Harvard Universiy Press. Prognos (2011): Globalisierungsrepor 2011 Welche Arbeispläze in Deuschland hängen von welchen Ländern ab? Basel. Ricardo, David (1817): On he principle of poliical economy and axaion. Samuelson, Paul Anhony (2004): Where Ricardo and Mill rebu and confirm argumens of mainsream economiss supporing globalizaion. In: Journal of Economic Perspecives. Vol. 18 No. 3. Pp Sinn, Hans-Werner (2005): Basar-Ökonomie. Deuschland. Exporwelmeiser oder Schlusslich? Berlin. Tiemann, Michael; Schade, Hans-Joachim; Helmrich, Rober; Hall, Anja; Braun, Ua; Bo, Peer (2009): Berufsfeld-Definiionen des BIBB auf Basis der Klassifikaion der Berufe Wissenschafliche Diskussionspapiere des BIBB 105. Bonn. Ulrich, Philip; Diselkamp, Marin; Lehr, Ulrike (2012): Employmen Effecs of Renewable Energy Expansion on a Regional Level - Firs Resuls of a Model-Based Approach for Germany. In: Susainabiliy. Vol. 4 No. 2. Pp Maier, Tobias; Mönnig, Anke; Zika, Gerd (2013) Labour Demand by Indusrial Secor, Occupaional Field and Qualificaion unil Model Calculaions using he IAB/INFORGE Model. In: Economic Sysems Research. Forhcoming Bofinger, Peer (2013): Peer Bofinger: Wirschafsweiser forder Lohnplus von fünf Prozen. Spiegel-Online. Sonnag, hp:// IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

29 Recenly published No. Auhor(s) Tile Dae 20/2012 Dauh, W. Südekum, J. 21/2012 Anoni, M. Heineck, G. 22/2012 Blien, U. Messmann, S. Trappmann, M. 23/2012 Kubis, A. Schneider, L. Profiles of local growh and indusrial change: Facs and an explanaion Do lieracy and numeracy pay off? On he relaionship beween basic skills and earnings Do reservaion wages reac o regional unemploymen? Human capial mobiliy and convergence: A spaial dynamic panel model of he German regions 24/2012 Schmerer, H.-J. Skill-biased labor marke reforms and inernaional compeiiveness 25/2012 Schanne, N. The formaion of expers expecaions on labour markes: Do hey run wih he pack? 26/2012 Heining, J. Card, D. Kline, P. Workplace heerogeneiy and he rise of Wes German wage inequaliy published in: The Quarerly Journal of Economics, (2013) 27/2012 Sops, M. Job maching across occupaional labour markes 28/2012 Klinger, S. Weber, W. Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlaed unobserved componens 29/2012 Osiander, Ch. Deerminanen der Weierbildungsbereischaf gering qualifizierer Arbeisloser 1/2013 Fuchs, J. Weber, E. 2/2013 Nordmeier, D. Weber, E. A new look a he discouragemen and he added worker hypoheses: Applying a rend-cycle decomposiion o unemploymen 9/12 9/12 9/12 9/12 10/12 10/12 11/12 11/12 12/12 12/12 1/13 Paerns of unemploymen dynamics in Germany 4/13 3/2013 Zabel, C. Effecs of paricipaing in skill raining and workfare on employmen enries for lone mohers receiving means-esed benefis in Germany 4/2013 Sephani, J. Does i maer where you work? Employer characerisics and he wage growh of low-wage workers and higher-wage workers 5/2013 Moczall, A. Subsidies for subsiues? New evidence on deadweigh loss and subsiuion effecs of a wage subsidy for hard-o-place job-seekers 6/2013 Schmillen, A. Umkehrer, M. As per: The scars of youh: Effecs of early-career unemploymen on fuure unemploymen experiences For a full lis, consul he IAB websie hp:// 4/13 5/13 5/13 5/13 IAB-Discussion Paper 7/

30 Imprin IAB-Discussion Paper 7/2013 Ediorial address Insiue for Employmen Research of he Federal Employmen Agency Regensburger Sr. 104 D Nuremberg Ediorial saff Regina Soll, Jua Palm-Nowak Technical compleion Jua Sebald All righs reserved Reproducion and disribuion in any form, also in pars, requires he permission of IAB Nuremberg Websie hp:// Download of his Discussion Paper hp://doku.iab.de/discussionpapers/2013/dp0713.pdf ISSN For furher inquiries conac he auhors: Anke Mönnig Phone Gerd Zika Phone