Small & Big Data - Risks & Opportunities Lloyd s Data & Intelligence Day, 15 October 2014 Nick Beecroft, Markus Gesmann
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1 < Picture to go here > & Big Data - Risks & Opportunities Lloyd s Data & Intelligence Day, 15 October 2014 Nick Beecroft, Markus Gesmann Lloyd s 1
2 Agenda Emerging risk & opportunities Nick Beecroft Practical perspective Markus Gesmann Lloyd s 2
3 impact What is an Emerging Risk? Lloyd s defines an emerging risk as: an issue that is perceived to be potentially significant but which may not be fully understood or allowed for in insurance terms and conditions, pricing, reserving or capital setting. In practical terms, the defining feature of an emerging risk is uncertainty Its essential features are novel (cyber risk, synthetic biology) It exhibits emergence i.e changes to one or more components which generate important new characteristics (flooding and climate change) emerged risks uncertainty emerging risks This means that the traditional risk assessment metric of likelihood is of limited value Lloyd s 3
4 Systemic shock: Thailand floods, 2011 No recent history of severe flooding in Thailand not covered by catastrophe models. Business parks developed on flat, affordable land: flood plain! Cascade effects throughout global supply chains generated economic loss of $45.7bn and loss in the Lloyd s market of $2.2bn. The challenge for risk transfer: we and insurers can t actually formulate the potential scope of liability and how to calculate loss the biggest issue is that insurers want complete information, whilst we as a buyer want cover for the unknown (Airmic review of the supply chain insurance market, 2012). Source: RSA (2014) Environmental Systemic Risk & Insurance White Paper Lloyd s 4
5 Emerging technologies Risk transfer is a key enabler of technology innovation Lloyd s marine underwriters provided the first motor car insurance policy in 1904, written as a ship navigating on land Risk must be quantified In the absence of historical, scientific research is applied to assess hazard, vulnerability and exposure Early in a technology s development, risk transfer appetite will be limited Lloyd s 5
6 While we have lots of numbers, we don t necessarily have lots of information. Patrick Burns Source: Lloyd s 6
7 Evolution of business functions Insurance Business/ Accounting Modelling Technology Lloyd s 7
8 Evolution of business functions Insurance Underwriters Analysts Actuaries Business/ Accounting Accountants Statisticians/ Scientists Modelling Business Analysts Data Scientists IT Developers Technology Lloyd s 8
9 Evolution of business functions Lloyd s 20 years ago Insurance Underwriters Analysts Actuaries Business/ Accounting Accountants Statisticians/ Scientists Modelling Business Analysts Data Scientists IT Developers Technology Lloyd s 9
10 Evolution of business functions Lloyd s 10 years ago Insurance Underwriters Analysts Actuaries Business/ Accounting Accountants Statisticians/ Scientists Modelling Business Analysts Data Scientists IT Developers Technology Lloyd s 10
11 Evolution of business functions Lloyd s today Insurance Underwriters Analysts Actuaries Business/ Accounting Accountants Statisticians/ Scientists Modelling Business Analysts Data Scientists IT Developers Technology Lloyd s 11
12 Evolution of business functions Lloyd s in 10 years Insurance Underwriters Analysts Actuaries Business/ Accounting Accountants Statisticians/ Scientists Modelling Business Analysts Data Scientists IT Developers Technology Lloyd s 12
13 Lloyd s 13
14 Connecting small sets Lloyd s 14
15 Big Lloyd s 15
16 Data is the new raw material Today: Business Centric Data in silos Data is collected and managed for specific business processes Future: Data Centric Data flows Data is a curated central resource, with pipelines to business functions Lloyd s 16
17 Challenges Stronger governance on small required Particular the slowly changing reference They are the linchpins! Lloyd s 17
18 How to overcome those challenges? Need Capabilities Culture Idea taken from Ian Branagan: All Models Are Wrong, But Some Are Useful Lloyd s 18
19 "Information isn t what s scarce; it s the willingness to do something with it." Tyler Cowen Lloyd s 19
20 Never stop thinking, even when you have lots of Source: Lloyd s 20
21 Thank you Questions Lloyd s 21
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