Estimating Markups From Plant-Level Data *
|
|
|
- Brittney Baker
- 9 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Estimating Markups From Plant-Level Data * Sergio Aquino DeSouza Resumo Este artigo investiga as conseqüências de ignorar a heterogeneidade dos preços na estimação de markups com uso de microdados. Demonstra-se que, ao ignorar tal heterogeneidade, as estimativas de markups são severamente tendenciosas em direção a um, independente do nível de competição. Para demonstrar tal resultado, constrói-se um modelo econométrico sob a hipótese de competição monopolística e uma função demanda CES, em um mercado de produtos diferenciados. Este modelo leva em conta a heterogeneidade não observada dos preços e mostra-se simples de estimar, dado que mesmo o método dos Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários é válido. Usando dados de fábricas Colombianas, o modelo de produtos diferenciados revela estimativas de markups consideravelmente acima da unidade, o que reea a hipótese de mercados em competição perfea. Abstract This paper investigates the consequences of ignoring price heterogeney on the estimation of markups using micro-data. I show that ignoring output price heterogeney yields markup estimates severely biased towards one regardless of competiveness levels. To do so, I set up an econometric model that assumes monopolistic competion and a CES demand function in a differentiated product market. This model controls for unobserved price heterogeney and is easy to estimate since OLS is applicable. Using data from Colombian plants, the differentiated product model reveals markup estimates considerably higher than one, reecting the hypothesis of competive markets. Keywords: Markups, Industrial Economics, Production Function, Imperfect Competion, Microdata. Palavras-Chave: Razão Preço-Custo, Economia Industrial, Função de Produção, Competição Imperfea, Microdados. JEL Classification: L,D2,D24. Classificação da ANPEC: Área 8 * I am thankful to James Tybout and Mark Roberts for useful comments and CAPES for financial support. Author s affiliation: Curso de Pós-Graduação em Economia (CAEN), Universidade Federal do Ceará, Av. da Universidade, 2700, segundo andar, Fortaleza, Brazil. [email protected]
2 I. INTRODUCTION Is a certain industry competive? If not, what is the degree of market power in this industry? Answering theses questions has always been a central concern in industrial organization. One of the most important contributions in this research subect was formulated by Hall (988, 990), who proposed an interesting framework where markups, returns scale and productivy can be estimated from a simple production function. Most studies using Hall s approach used industry level data. However, the need to study firms behavior (e.g, entry and ex patterns, markups and productivy) at more disaggregate levels turned necessary the use of plant-level data. The advantages of utilizing more disaggregated data are twofold. First, avoids the aggregation bias inherently present in industry level panel data. Second, is more consistent wh the underlying theoretical models where the decision un is a firm, not an industry. However, poses an addional difficulty, often neglected, in the estimation of production functions that is particular to the use firm-level data: unobserved quanties. Most practioners ignore this problem and uncover output by simply deflating revenue by an aggregate price index. For the manufacturing sector, however, this may not be a suable assumption since for even narrowly defined industries one might expect some degree of price dispersion. This paper shows that ignoring price heterogeney in a differentiated good market yields price-cost ratio estimates severely biased towards one regardless of competiveness levels and that an econometric model that embodies firm specific prices implies much higher markups. To set up the econometric model, I add to the production function assumptions about firms and consumer behavior. In this context, this model is a natural extension to previous studies that used a similar framework but emphasized different obects. Klette and Griliches (996) argued that simple OLS estimates of internal returns to scale that ignored the ratio of firm-specific price to the aggregate price index are asymptotically downward biased. They assumed monopolistic competion and identified the internal returns scale and the elasticy of substution in a price adusted revenue production function. Focusing on the productivy measure but using the same framework, Melz (2000) finds that the productivy index is also downward biased and spuriously procyclical. Building on this methodology defined as KGM from now on- I develop a technique for estimating markups that assumes monopolistic competion and a CES demand function in a differentiated product market. This model controls for unobserved price heterogeney and is easy to estimate since OLS is applicable. These nice features, however, comes at a cost: strong assumptions on the firm s decision model. For this reason a separate section is set aside to analyze the robustness of the 2
3 conclusions once these assumptions are relaxed, at least for the capal input. All regressions are performed wh data on Colombian plants at the three-dig level classification according to ISIC from the period of 979 to 987. This paper is organized as follows. In the next section, a simple model that highlights the consequences of omting output price variation is derived. Section III describes the data and the construction of variables. The estimation results are presented and discussed in section IV. Further, this paper devotes a separate segmentsection V- to evaluate the sensivy of our conclusions once the strong assumption on the input decision process is relaxed. And finally, the last section presents some concluding remarks. II. MODEL I begin by assuming monopolistic competion in industry where firm i faces a demand function given by () Q P = Pt σ R P t t Where R t is the total revenue of industry, P t is an aggregate price index and σ (σ>) is the demand elasticy, which is also the elasticy of substution. It is straightforward to show that the markup is constant across firms and equal to σ /( σ ). This formulation is intuively appealing. As goods become more substutable (σ goes to infiny) the markup approaches the competive outcome. In this economy gross output Q is generated wh capal X, labor X 2 and materials X 3 adusted by a term W that indexes the productivy levels and a random error N. r 2 3 Therefore, after defining X ( X, X, X ) ( K, L, M ), the following production function can be wrten as r (2) Q = F X, W, N ) ( Where F is homogeneous of degree γ in capal, labor and materials, and of degree one in W and N. Note that the assumption of linear homogeney in W is made whout loss of generaly since this is ust an index. 3
4 Log differentiating (2), defining the lowercases as the log of the variables defined above and dropping the time index yield F X i (3) dqi = dxi + Fwdw + FN dn Q i It s also assumed that firms dynamic optimization problem can be well approximated by successive and independent static decision problems and that factor markets are competive. Then, wh the demand equation () firm s input choice problem imposes the following equaly at each period t σ (4) P i F = ri σ P i, r, and F represent respectively firm i s output price, the price of the - th factor of production and the derivative of F wh respect to this factor. Now, is possible to derive the simple expression for the inputs coefficients since F X i (5) = µα i Q i Where µ is the markup and α i is the revenue share of input. Substuting (5) into (3) yields (6) dq i = µ α idx + dwi + dni This equation, first derived by Hall (988) implies that the output elasticy wh respect to the -th input is ust this input s revenue share adusted by a measure of firms market power. It contains the Solow residual formulation as a particular case. Indeed, in a competive environment the Total Factor Productivy 2 3 reduces to a simple deterministic relation dw + dn = dq αdx α 2dx α 3dx. 4
5 Equation (6) can be rewrten to express output growth as a function of returns to scale and a cost-share weighted bundle of input growth (Hall,990) as follows (7) dq i = γ cidx + dwi + dni The symbols γ and c represent returns to scale and cost share respectively. To derive the equation above note that the definion of returns to scale implies F X (8) γ = = µ α Q and that cost and revenue shares values are constrained by the following relation TCi α = c (TC i represents firm s i total cost). From this equation and (8) easy to PQ i i show that (6) implies (7). Obviously, is possible to work backwards and obtain (7) from (6). Hall s formulation - equations (6) and (7) - became a widely used technique. It allowed researchers, using data sets at various aggregation levels, to obtain output elasticies, returns to scale, productivy indexes, as well as a measure of market power (µ) from simple production function estimations. However, in most data sets, firms report revenue, not absolute quanties nor prices. A usual way to proxy output is to divide firms revenues by an aggregate price index, common to all firms. This approach is ustified by the assumption of a homogeneous product market. In this case, the price index coincides wh firms individual prices and the proxy is a perfect measure of each firm production level. However, ignoring fluctuations of firm-specific prices relative to the price index in a differentiated product industry can yield severe econometric problems as mentioned in the introduction. In this way, I shall develop a model that takes this potential distortion into account. Controlling for unobserved output Taking the log-difference of () and rearranging the revenue identy (R =P.Q ) allow us to wre (9) dq = σ dp dp ) + ( dr dp ) ( t t t (0) dr = dq + dp 5
6 The KGM methodology controls for unobserved output by combining the demand equation (9), the revenue identy (0) and the cost-share based production function (7), yielding () dr σ dpt = σ γ cdx + ( drt ) + σ ( dw + dn ) σ σ This equation illustrates the importance of controlling for unobserved prices for the estimation of returns to scale γ and productivy dw. It introduces the elasticy of substution parameter σ and therefore a markup (µ=σ/(σ-)) measure in the model. Thus, if firms have some market power (µ>) and produce heterogeneous goods, γ and dw will be downward biased. Departing from this framework, I shall demonstrate that using the revenue share in lieu of the cost share production function (7) yields an interesting equation that circumvents some of the problems in estimating () and identifies a source of bias in the markup estimation. Indeed, combining (6), instead of (7), wh (9) and (0) results in (2) dr σ dpt = σ µ α dx + ( drt ) + σ ( dw + dn ) σ σ Note that the parameter on the input bundle cancels out, such that: (3) dr α dx = [( drt )] + ( dw + dn ) σ µ The estimation of (3) has several advantages over the KGM method - equation (). First, since the factor inputs variables appear on the LHS we do not have to worry about their potential correlation wh the productivy term. Therefore, even the OLS estimator is consistent. This avoids the notoriously difficult task of searching for good instruments in micro data studies. The equation above also contains the Solow residual as a particular case. If the market is in perfect competion, i.e the coefficient on (dr t dp t ) is zero, equation (3) is ust the computation rule for the Solow residual. Roeger (995) also develops a strategy to estimate production function parameters that avoids instrumentation and that controls for unobserved nominal prices. However, his methodology only works under the hypothesis of constant See Konings and Vandenbussche(2004) for a firm level application of Roegers s methodology. 6
7 returns to scale. Omting variations in this parameter can cause an upward (downward) bias in the markup estimate if returns to scale are decreasing (increasing) as shown by Basu and Fernald (997). Ignoring price heterogeney Suppose we are trying to measure markups by proxying unobserved output wh the ratio of output revenue to a common aggregate price index. Then, equation (6) becomes (4) dr = µ α dx + dw + dn Estimating variations of (4), several plant level data studies have supported markets wh low markups, usually close to one. For example, Klette (999) using establishment data from the manufacturing sector in Norway finds markups ranging from to.088. Although his estimates are statistically different from one, they are incredibly close to this number. Using a large sample of Italian firms, Botasso and Sembenelli (200) find results of the same order of magnude for the markup estimates. Below, I argue that these results are driven by a misspecification of the production function 2. Indeed, if we believe that (3) is the true data generating process, those estimates are not so surprising at all. By comparing (3) to (4) and defining µ ) as a consistent estimator of µ as appears in (4) easy to show that plim µ ) =. That is, the markup measure should be one regardless of competive levels, or at least evolve around one after considering different sources of biases from standard econometric techniques. III. DATA The data set analyzed in this paper was obtained from the census of Colombian manufacturing plants, collected by the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica (DANE), and was cleaned by Roberts (996). It covers all plants in the manufacturing sector for the period and plants wh ten or more employees between 982 and 987. This study considers six different sectors at the three dig level: 3 (Food Products), 322 (Clothing and Apparel), 38 (Metal Products), 342 (Printing and Publishing), 383 (Electronic Machinery and Equipment) and 384 (Transportation Equipment). It should be noted that I randomly selected these industries for this study and that I paid no attention to the idiosyncrasies of neher of them. This is ustified here on the basis that the obective in this paper is to 2 These papers actually use a different representation of the production function where capal is held fixed. However, specification (4) serves as a better introduction to the problem caused by the omission of price heterogeney. In later section, I shall argue that similar arguments arise once fixed capal is assumed. 7
8 illustrate the methodological problems of ignoring price heterogeney rather than providing a detailed study for each industry. However, an application of this methodology to study a particular industry in the Colombia manufacturing sector would be a natural extension of this work. Input data are available for book value of capal, number of employees and book value of intermediate inputs. Intermediate inputs include material, fuel and energy that are bundled together to form a unique measure M entering the equations defined in the last section. The value of gross output is also reported. Price deflators for the inputs and aggregate output are taken form Colombian National accounts and the capal data are constructed wh the usual perpetual inventory method. IV. ESTIMATION This section presents the markup estimates according to the misspecified model (4) and the true model (3) for selected 3-dig industries in the Colombian manufacturing sector. The strategy in this section consists of estimating both models through OLS and verifying the claim that ignoring price heterogeney by deflating output wh an aggregate price index yields markup estimates whose asymptotic value should be one regardless of competion levels. One problem arises in this strategy. OLS estimation of (4) does not yield consistent estimators of the true value of µ (µ 0 =) in (4) due to the posive correlation between input choices and productivy. It is a standard exercise to show that OLS result in the overestimation of the relevant parameter. Alternative methods to remedy this problem could be applied, e.g IV and the Olley an Pakes (996) estimators. Nonetheless, OLS results proved to be sufficient to validate the argument I am trying to put forward. As presented in the first column of Table the magnudes of the markups are close to one although statistically different from uny for all industries except for 342. Thus, even though we do not control for the sources of upward biases, the basic prediction that OLS estimates of the markup estimates based on (4) should be close to one still comes through. If we were to have controlled for these biases the coefficient would presumably be lower and even less plausible as markups. The remaining task is to compare these results wh the estimation of markups according to the assumed true model, represented here by equation (3). Since the input data are placed on the LHS of equation (3), I do not have to worry about the simultaney bias. Thus simple OLS regressions can beapplied whout strong assumptions on the co-movements of productivy and input use. Note that a significant /σ estimate implies imperfect competion (σ is fine) whereas a insignificant estimate supports the alternative hypothesis of perfect competion.the implied markups (σ/σ-) reported in the Table show firms wh high market power, considerably above one in most sectors contrasting wh the previous markup estimates that are close to one. This is a strong result. Controlling for price 8
9 heterogeney yields markups much higher that those implied by the misspecified model, which already contains an upward bias. V. Fixed Capal Although the econometric model represented by (3) is informative wh respect to consistent estimation of markups, relies heavily on the assumption that firms choose their inputs levels in a sequence of static problems and that factor markets are competive. These assumptions are certainly more problematic for capal. In order to decide how much to invest in a given period, agents take into account past levels of capal. Indeed, dynamic models of firm s decisions problems have emphasized capal as a state variable, which enters as a parameter in the choice of investment, employment, and materials levels. Hence, these assumptions, crucial to derive (3), may be leading us to wrong conclusions about markups. Yet, as I shall argue below, the basic predictions of last section remain and the data also supports the same claims as before when weaker assumptions on the capal input decision are taken into consideration. Model Now, I assume that capal is fixed in the short-run. Thus, (5) does not hold for this input such that (3) is no longer valid. Obviously, the advantages of the simple econometric model discussed in the previous sections cannot be claimed in this new set up. Wh fixed capal and assuming that (5) holds for the remaining inputs the log differentiated production function can be wrten as (5) dq i = γdx i + µ αi ( dxi dx i) + dwi + dni = 2, 3 Specification (5) is the most commonly used in the lerature. Not only relaxes the strong assumptions on capal but also perms the simultaneous estimation of internal returns and markups. However, neglecting price heterogeney still leads to spurious estimates of markups. 9
10 Equation (5), (9) and (0) form a system that yields the following revenue production function σ (6) dr α ( dx dx ) = γ ( dx ) + [ drt ] + dw + dn σ σ = 2,3 µ Instead of performing inference wh equation (6) most researchers simply deflate output revenue by a common industry price, resulting in the following equation (7) dr = γdx + µ α m ( dx dx ) + dw + dn Again, if we believe that (6) is the true model becomes clear that µ ), now the estimator of µ as appears in (7), converges in probabily to one regardless of competion levels. Note that (6) is similar to (3). The difference is the coefficient on capal (dx ) which cannot be placed on the LHS of the estimating equation and, since dx is expected to be correlated wh the error term, OLS is no longer consistent. In the absence of good disaggregate instruments researchers started searching for alternative methods to deal wh the simultaney problem. Leading this recent lerature, the Olley and Pakes (996) method OP henceforth- proposes an innovative technique that avoids the difficult task of searching for instruments. This method can be briefly summarized as follows. Using the information that investment levels are a deterministic function of productivy levels and by inverting this relationship, is possible to uncover the unobservable productivy term as a nonparametric function of investment and the state variable capal. In this way, the only unobservable error term left in the estimation is not expected to be correlated wh the regressors. Another way to deal wh this problem was developed by Levinhson and Petrin (2000)-LP hereafter. They argue that investment may only respond to the nonforecastable part of the productivy term since the capal input may have already adusted to s forecastable part. Therefore some correlation would still remain between the regressors and the error term. By using intermediate inputs to proxy the productivy term they are able to develop a simpler methodology that improves on the OP methodology since intermediate inputs respond to the whole productivy shock. It also avoids a maor drawback of the OP method, which is the necessy to drop information on industries that report zero investment in a given period. 0
11 The availabily of intermediate input in our data set and the arguments discussed above make LP our natural choice for estimating equation (6). It is worth pointing out however two limations concerning the LP method. First, does not control for the selection bias. That is, unlike OP, does not use information on firms shut down decision rule in the estimation process. Second, assumes competive and homogeneous product markets to validate the intermediate output as proxy for the unobservable term. While the effects of former limation can be partially attenuated by the use of the full-sample instead of a balanced panel, the effects of the latter requires a more careful look into the technique self, for our model assumes a differentiated product market. The basic result that supports LP is the monotonic relation between productivy and the optimal intermediate input level. In a competive framework is straightforward to prove that. Wh fixed output and input prices an increase in productivy implies a higher intermediate input marginal product at the existing input levels. Therefore, firms will decide to expand production so that marginal product reduces to equal the intermediate input price. Therefore as output goes up demand for inputs also increases. In an oligopolistic market this monotonic property may not hold. The marginal product still follows the same qualative movements as before, but now firms realize that prices decrease as output goes up. Thus, the net effect of a supply expansion will ultimately depend on the elasticy of demand. It is possible to set up a scenario where one firm facing higher demand elasticy actually reduces output whereas another firm facing less responsive prices increases production levels. In a monopolistic competive environment, however, the proof of the monotonic condion is very similar to the one presented in Levinsohn and Petrin (2000) and, therefore, will be omted here. From the monotonic property we can wre w =w(x,x 3 ). Expressing this equaly in differences and dropping the firm specific and time subscripts yields dw=dw(x,dx,x 3,dx 3 ). Following OP (996) a third order series approximation to this function is used. Plugging as a regressor in (6) implies σ (8) Y = 3 γ ( dx ) + [ drt ] + dw ( x, dx, x, dx 3 ) + dn σ σ Where Y = dr dp α ( dx dx ). Since the observable variables t x,dx,x 3,dx 3 control for the productivy term, /σ can be consistently estimated by OLS. If we were interested in pinning down the coefficient on dx the LP technique becomes more involved since is not identified in the equation above.
12 Again, as shown in Table 2 the estimates are not greatly affected once the hypothesis of flexible capal is relaxed. The only exception is the 384 sector 3, which shows /σ estimate (0.069) contrasting wh the OLS estimate (0.63) of equation (3). For the other sectors the implied markups are considerably above one, providing further evidence that the estimation of the misspecified production function yields misleading assessments about competion levels. VI. Final Remarks This paper shows that neglecting output price heterogeney in plant or firm level studies can be misleading, yielding spurious markup estimates. Assuming a differentiated product market, a competive factor market and flexible inputs yields an econometric model that demonstrates that a misspecified version of Hall s equation implies markups equal to one regardless of the market environment. Furthermore, this model avoids the search for reliable disaggregated instruments, usually difficult to find, and can be consistently estimated by OLS. These consistent estimates, in turn, show markups much higher than one. In a separate section, I recognize that these results are derived under restrictive assumptions on the model. Yet, relaxing the most disputable assumption imposed in the first part of the paper (flexible capal) does not change the basic result of this paper that the simple deflation of revenue by an aggregate price index whout an adustment for price heterogeney yields misleading measurements of market power. The framework developed here is restrictive in at least one dimension. The monopolistic competion may not be a reasonable model for many industries. It assumes that firms are not big enough to influence the aggregate market variables and therefore a price change by one firm has an irrelevant effect on the demand of any other firm. This assumption says that each product has no neighbor in the product space, which strongly restricts cross-effects and strategic interaction between products (Tirole, 988). The discrete-choice based demand function wh oligopolistic competion relaxes some of the undesirable results of the monopolistic setup. Consumers choose among N products given the product s prices and characteristics. Producers, in turn, set optimal prices in a Bertrand fashion. This allows for a richer model of cross-effects patterns and interactions among firms. Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (996) develop an econometric methodology to estimate such model using market level data on prices and quanties. Along the same lines, but dealing wh a data set that reports only revenue and total costs, Katayma, Lu and Tybout (2003) use a nested log model to uncover firm-specific prices, marginal costs and other measures of firm behavior. This is certainly the path to be followed by those looking for more interactive market setups. Therefore, this paper s message about spurious markup estimates should be taken wh caution since lims self to raise a red flag 3 More information on this sector would be necessary to interpret this result. 2
13 for practioners who are willing to measure markups wh limed data under the monopolistic competive market assumption. References Aken, B. and Harrison, A. (999), Do Domestic Firms Benef from Foreign Direct Investment? Evidence from Panel Data American Economic Review, 89(3), pp Basu, S. and Fernald, J. (997). Returns to Scale in U.S production: Estimates and Implications Journal of Polical Economy 05, pp Bartelsman, J., Caballero, R. (99), Short and Long Run externalies, NBER Working Paper No Botasso, A. and Sembenelli, A. (200) Market Power, Productivy and the EU Single Market Program: evidence from a panel of Italian firms. European Economic Review 45, pp Caballero, R. and Lyons, R..(99). Internal Versus External Economies in European Industry. European Economic Review 34, Cooper, R. and Johri, A. (997) Dynamic Complementaries: A Quantative Analysis Journal of Monetary Economics 40, pp Griliches, Z. (957), Specification Bias in Estimates of Production Functions, Journal of Farm Economics, 39, pp Griliches, Z. and Mairesse, J. (995) Production Functions: the Search for Identification, NBER Working Paper No Hall, R.(988). The Relation Between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry Journal of Polical Economy 96. Hall, R. (990). Invariance Properties of Solow s Productivy Residual, In P. Diamond (ed.), Growth, Productivy, Unemployment, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Harrison, A. (994) Productivy, Imperfect Competion and Trade Reform: Theory and Evidence. Journal of International Economics 36, Klette, T.J. (999): Market Power, Scale Economies and Productivy: Estimates from a Panel of Establishment Data Journal of Industrial Economics, 47, pp
14 Klette, T. and Griliches, Z. (996), The Inconsistency of Common Scale Estimators When Output Prices Are Unobserved and Endogenous, Journal of Applied Econometrics, (4), pp Krizan, C. J.(995). External Economies of Scale In Chile, Mexico and Morrocco: Evidence from Plant-level Data. Georgetown Universy, Washington, D.C. Konings and Vandenbussche(2004). Antidumping Protection and Markups of Domestic firms: Evidence from Firm-Level data. LICOS Discussion Paper No.4. Levinsohn, J.(993). Testing the Imports-as-Market-Discipline Hypothesis. Journal of International Economics 35, pp Levinsohn, J. and Petrin, A. (2003), Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables Review of Economic Studies, 70(2), pp Lindstrom, T. (997). External Economies at the Firm Level: Evidence from Swedish Manufacturing Mimeo. Lucas, R. (988) On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, pp Melz M. J.(2000) Estimating Firm-Level Productivy in Differentiated Product Industries. Mimeo. Harvard Universy. Mundlak, Y. and Hoch, I. (965) Consequances of alternative Specifications of Cobb-Douglas production functions, Econometrica,33, pp Olley, S. and Pakes, A. (996), The Dynamics of Productivy in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry, Econometrica, 64(6), pp Roberts, Mark (996). Colombia, : Producer Turnover,Margins, and Trade Exposure. In Mark Roberts and James Tybout, edors, Industrial Evolution in Developing countries. New York: Oxford Universy Press. Roeger, W. (995) Can imperfect Competion Explain the Difference between Primal and Dual Productivy Measures? Estimates from US Manufacturing. Journal of Polical Economy, 03(2). Tirole, J. (988), The Theory of Industrial Organization, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Tybout, J. (forthcoming) Plant and Firm-level evidence on the New Trade Theories in James Harrigan (ed.) Handbook of International Trade, Oxford: Basil-Blackwell. 4
15 Table : Parameters Estimates Method OLS OLS Specification Equation (4) Equation (3) µ estimates /σ Estimates Implied markups (0.0078) (0.0277) (0.0060) (0.0325) (0.024) (0.0374) (0.0204) (0.046) inconsistent (0.022) (0.068) (0.0205) 0.63 (0.0328).20 Table 2: Fixed Capal Method OLS OLS Specification Equation(8) /σ Estimates Implied Markups (0.254) (0.26) (0.944) (0.042) (0.350) (0.576).08 5
Markups and Firm-Level Export Status: Appendix
Markups and Firm-Level Export Status: Appendix De Loecker Jan - Warzynski Frederic Princeton University, NBER and CEPR - Aarhus School of Business Forthcoming American Economic Review Abstract This is
Do Institutions Matter for FDI Spillovers?
Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 5757 WPS5757 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Do Instutions Matter for FDI Spillovers? The Implications of China s Special
The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share. by Michael Elsby (University of Edinburgh), Bart Hobijn (FRB SF), and Aysegul Sahin (FRB NY)
The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share by Michael Elsby (University of Edinburgh), Bart Hobijn (FRB SF), and Aysegul Sahin (FRB NY) Comments by: Brent Neiman University of Chicago Prepared for: Brookings
FDI as a source of finance in imperfect capital markets Firm-Level Evidence from Argentina
FDI as a source of finance in imperfect capital markets Firm-Level Evidence from Argentina Paula Bustos CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra September 2007 Abstract In this paper I analyze the financing and
How To Calculate Export Earnings
Do Jobs In Export Industries Still Pay More? And Why? by David Riker Office of Competition and Economic Analysis July 2010 Manufacturing and Services Economics Briefs are produced by the Office of Competition
Total Factor Productivity
Total Factor Productivity Diego Comin NewYorkUniversityandNBER August 2006 Abstract Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is the portion of output not explained by the amount of inputs used in production. The
Measuring total factor productivity for the United Kingdom
Measuring total factor productivity for the United Kingdom By Charlotta Groth, Maria Gutierrez-Domenech and Sylaja Srinivasan of the Bank s Structural Economic Analysis Division. (1) A good understanding
ECON20310 LECTURE SYNOPSIS REAL BUSINESS CYCLE
ECON20310 LECTURE SYNOPSIS REAL BUSINESS CYCLE YUAN TIAN This synopsis is designed merely for keep a record of the materials covered in lectures. Please refer to your own lecture notes for all proofs.
TEXTO PARA DISCUSSÃO N 265 ECONOMIC GROWTH, CONVERGENCE AND QUALITY OF HUMAN CAPITAL FORMATION SYSTEM. Luciano Nakabashi Lízia de Figueiredo
TEXTO PARA DISCUSSÃO N 265 ECONOMIC GROWTH, CONVERGENCE AND QUALITY OF HUMAN CAPITAL FORMATION SYSTEM Luciano Nakabashi Lízia de Figueiredo Junho de 2005 Ficha catalográfica 330.34 N63e 2005 Nakabashi,
The Loss in Efficiency from Using Grouped Data to Estimate Coefficients of Group Level Variables. Kathleen M. Lang* Boston College.
The Loss in Efficiency from Using Grouped Data to Estimate Coefficients of Group Level Variables Kathleen M. Lang* Boston College and Peter Gottschalk Boston College Abstract We derive the efficiency loss
Overview of Violations of the Basic Assumptions in the Classical Normal Linear Regression Model
Overview of Violations of the Basic Assumptions in the Classical Normal Linear Regression Model 1 September 004 A. Introduction and assumptions The classical normal linear regression model can be written
Trade Liberalization, Exit, and Productivity Improvements: Evidence from Chilean Plants
Trade Liberalization, Exit, and Productivity Improvements: Evidence from Chilean Plants Nina Pavcnik * Department of Economics Dartmouth College and NBER Abstract This paper empirically investigates the
Do R&D or Capital Expenditures Impact Wage Inequality? Evidence from the IT Industry in Taiwan ROC
Lai, Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, 6(1), June 2013, 48-53 48 Do R&D or Capital Expenditures Impact Wage Inequality? Evidence from the IT Industry in Taiwan ROC Yu-Cheng Lai * Shih
Econometric analysis of the Belgian car market
Econometric analysis of the Belgian car market By: Prof. dr. D. Czarnitzki/ Ms. Céline Arts Tim Verheyden Introduction In contrast to typical examples from microeconomics textbooks on homogeneous goods
Response to Critiques of Mortgage Discrimination and FHA Loan Performance
A Response to Comments Response to Critiques of Mortgage Discrimination and FHA Loan Performance James A. Berkovec Glenn B. Canner Stuart A. Gabriel Timothy H. Hannan Abstract This response discusses the
Intermediate Macroeconomics: The Real Business Cycle Model
Intermediate Macroeconomics: The Real Business Cycle Model Eric Sims University of Notre Dame Fall 2012 1 Introduction Having developed an operational model of the economy, we want to ask ourselves the
Inflation. Chapter 8. 8.1 Money Supply and Demand
Chapter 8 Inflation This chapter examines the causes and consequences of inflation. Sections 8.1 and 8.2 relate inflation to money supply and demand. Although the presentation differs somewhat from that
Marketing Mix Modelling and Big Data P. M Cain
1) Introduction Marketing Mix Modelling and Big Data P. M Cain Big data is generally defined in terms of the volume and variety of structured and unstructured information. Whereas structured data is stored
Foreign Direct Investment in Services and Manufacturing Productivity: Evidence for Chile. Caroline Paunov b The World Bank OECD
Foreign Direct Investment in Services and Manufacturing Productivy: Evidence for Chile Ana M. Fernandes a Caroline Paunov b The World Bank OECD March 2011 Journal of Development Economics forthcoming Abstract
Chapter 1. Vector autoregressions. 1.1 VARs and the identi cation problem
Chapter Vector autoregressions We begin by taking a look at the data of macroeconomics. A way to summarize the dynamics of macroeconomic data is to make use of vector autoregressions. VAR models have become
Does Tougher Import Competition Foster Product Quality Upgrading?
WPS4894 Policy Research Working Paper 4894 Does Tougher Import Competion Foster Product Qualy Upgrading? Ana M. Fernandes Caroline Paunov The World Bank Development Research Group Trade Team April 2009
How Much Equity Does the Government Hold?
How Much Equity Does the Government Hold? Alan J. Auerbach University of California, Berkeley and NBER January 2004 This paper was presented at the 2004 Meetings of the American Economic Association. I
FORECASTING DEPOSIT GROWTH: Forecasting BIF and SAIF Assessable and Insured Deposits
Technical Paper Series Congressional Budget Office Washington, DC FORECASTING DEPOSIT GROWTH: Forecasting BIF and SAIF Assessable and Insured Deposits Albert D. Metz Microeconomic and Financial Studies
ESTIMATING AN ECONOMIC MODEL OF CRIME USING PANEL DATA FROM NORTH CAROLINA BADI H. BALTAGI*
JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS J. Appl. Econ. 21: 543 547 (2006) Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/jae.861 ESTIMATING AN ECONOMIC MODEL OF CRIME USING PANEL
Endogenous markups, international trade and the product mix
Endogenous markups, international trade and the product mix Carlo Altomonte y (Università Bocconi) Alessandro Barattieri (Boston College) [This version: November 2006] Abstract We investigate the e ects
VI. Real Business Cycles Models
VI. Real Business Cycles Models Introduction Business cycle research studies the causes and consequences of the recurrent expansions and contractions in aggregate economic activity that occur in most industrialized
Asymmetry and the Cost of Capital
Asymmetry and the Cost of Capital Javier García Sánchez, IAE Business School Lorenzo Preve, IAE Business School Virginia Sarria Allende, IAE Business School Abstract The expected cost of capital is a crucial
The VAR models discussed so fare are appropriate for modeling I(0) data, like asset returns or growth rates of macroeconomic time series.
Cointegration The VAR models discussed so fare are appropriate for modeling I(0) data, like asset returns or growth rates of macroeconomic time series. Economic theory, however, often implies equilibrium
1 National Income and Product Accounts
Espen Henriksen econ249 UCSB 1 National Income and Product Accounts 11 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Can be measured in three different but equivalent ways: 1 Production Approach 2 Expenditure Approach
Comments on \Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stag ation? A Monetary Alternative", by Robert Barsky and Lutz Kilian
Comments on \Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stag ation? A Monetary Alternative", by Robert Barsky and Lutz Kilian Olivier Blanchard July 2001 Revisionist history is always fun. But it is not
Keynesian Macroeconomic Theory
2 Keynesian Macroeconomic Theory 2.1. The Keynesian Consumption Function 2.2. The Complete Keynesian Model 2.3. The Keynesian-Cross Model 2.4. The IS-LM Model 2.5. The Keynesian AD-AS Model 2.6. Conclusion
On the Growth Effect of Stock Market Liberalizations
On the Growth Effect of Stock Market Liberalizations Nandini Gupta and Kathy Yuan July 2008 Nandini Gupta (Email: [email protected]) is at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. Kathy Yuan
Sample Midterm Solutions
Sample Midterm Solutions Instructions: Please answer both questions. You should show your working and calculations for each applicable problem. Correct answers without working will get you relatively few
Do Commodity Price Spikes Cause Long-Term Inflation?
No. 11-1 Do Commodity Price Spikes Cause Long-Term Inflation? Geoffrey M.B. Tootell Abstract: This public policy brief examines the relationship between trend inflation and commodity price increases and
FIXED EFFECTS AND RELATED ESTIMATORS FOR CORRELATED RANDOM COEFFICIENT AND TREATMENT EFFECT PANEL DATA MODELS
FIXED EFFECTS AND RELATED ESTIMATORS FOR CORRELATED RANDOM COEFFICIENT AND TREATMENT EFFECT PANEL DATA MODELS Jeffrey M. Wooldridge Department of Economics Michigan State University East Lansing, MI 48824-1038
The consumer purchase journey and the marketing mix model
Dynamic marketing mix modelling and digital attribution 1 Introduction P.M Cain Digital media attribution aims to identify the combination of online marketing activities and touchpoints contributing to
Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Africa Using Dynamic Panel Estimates
The Empirical Economics Letters, 5(1): (January 2006) ISSN 1681 8997 Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Africa Using Dynamic Panel Estimates Seetanah Boopen 1 School of Public
The Elasticity of Taxable Income: A Non-Technical Summary
The Elasticity of Taxable Income: A Non-Technical Summary John Creedy The University of Melbourne Abstract This paper provides a non-technical summary of the concept of the elasticity of taxable income,
What s New in Econometrics? Lecture 8 Cluster and Stratified Sampling
What s New in Econometrics? Lecture 8 Cluster and Stratified Sampling Jeff Wooldridge NBER Summer Institute, 2007 1. The Linear Model with Cluster Effects 2. Estimation with a Small Number of Groups and
Testing for Granger causality between stock prices and economic growth
MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive Testing for Granger causality between stock prices and economic growth Pasquale Foresti 2006 Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2962/ MPRA Paper No. 2962, posted
MULTIPLE REGRESSION AND ISSUES IN REGRESSION ANALYSIS
MULTIPLE REGRESSION AND ISSUES IN REGRESSION ANALYSIS MSR = Mean Regression Sum of Squares MSE = Mean Squared Error RSS = Regression Sum of Squares SSE = Sum of Squared Errors/Residuals α = Level of Significance
Working Paper Research. No 268. Import competition, productivity and multi-product firms. October 2014
Import competition, productivity and multi-product firms Working Paper Research by Emmanuel Dhyne, Amil Petrin, Valerie Smeets and Frederic Warzynski October 2014 No 268 Editorial Director Jan Smets, Member
Integrated Resource Plan
Integrated Resource Plan March 19, 2004 PREPARED FOR KAUA I ISLAND UTILITY COOPERATIVE LCG Consulting 4962 El Camino Real, Suite 112 Los Altos, CA 94022 650-962-9670 1 IRP 1 ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING 1.1
Chapter 11. Market-Clearing Models of the Business Cycle
Chapter 11 Market-Clearing Models of the Business Cycle Goal of This Chapter In this chapter, we study three models of business cycle, which were each developed as explicit equilibrium (market-clearing)
ELASTICITY OF LONG DISTANCE TRAVELLING
Mette Aagaard Knudsen, DTU Transport, [email protected] ELASTICITY OF LONG DISTANCE TRAVELLING ABSTRACT With data from the Danish expenditure survey for 12 years 1996 through 2007, this study analyses
IDENTIFICATION IN A CLASS OF NONPARAMETRIC SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS MODELS. Steven T. Berry and Philip A. Haile. March 2011 Revised April 2011
IDENTIFICATION IN A CLASS OF NONPARAMETRIC SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS MODELS By Steven T. Berry and Philip A. Haile March 2011 Revised April 2011 COWLES FOUNDATION DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 1787R COWLES FOUNDATION
Should we Really Care about Building Business. Cycle Coincident Indexes!
Should we Really Care about Building Business Cycle Coincident Indexes! Alain Hecq University of Maastricht The Netherlands August 2, 2004 Abstract Quite often, the goal of the game when developing new
The Effects of Unemployment on Crime Rates in the U.S.
The Effects of Unemployment on Crime Rates in the U.S. Sandra Ajimotokin, Alexandra Haskins, Zach Wade April 14 th, 2015 Abstract This paper aims to analyze the relationship between unemployment and crime
2. Real Business Cycle Theory (June 25, 2013)
Prof. Dr. Thomas Steger Advanced Macroeconomics II Lecture SS 13 2. Real Business Cycle Theory (June 25, 2013) Introduction Simplistic RBC Model Simple stochastic growth model Baseline RBC model Introduction
INDIRECT INFERENCE (prepared for: The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition)
INDIRECT INFERENCE (prepared for: The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition) Abstract Indirect inference is a simulation-based method for estimating the parameters of economic models. Its
On the Dual Effect of Bankruptcy
On the Dual Effect of Bankruptcy Daiki Asanuma Abstract This paper examines whether the survival of low-productivity firms in Japan has prevented economic recovery since the bursting of the financial bubble
Lecture Notes on Elasticity of Substitution
Lecture Notes on Elasticity of Substitution Ted Bergstrom, UCSB Economics 210A March 3, 2011 Today s featured guest is the elasticity of substitution. Elasticity of a function of a single variable Before
Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment
Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment Written for the Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy (Princeton University Press) By Linda S. Goldberg 1 Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of New
How To Analyze The Effect Of Innovation On Productivity In Chilean Manufacturing
IDB WORKING PAPER SERIES No. IDB-WP-190 Innovation, R&D Investment and Productivity in Chile Roberto Alvarez Claudio Bravo-Ortega Lucas Navarro October 2010 Inter-American Development Bank Department of
ON THE ROBUSTNESS OF FIXED EFFECTS AND RELATED ESTIMATORS IN CORRELATED RANDOM COEFFICIENT PANEL DATA MODELS
ON THE ROBUSTNESS OF FIXED EFFECTS AND RELATED ESTIMATORS IN CORRELATED RANDOM COEFFICIENT PANEL DATA MODELS Jeffrey M. Wooldridge THE INSTITUTE FOR FISCAL STUDIES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, UCL cemmap working
The (mis)allocation of capital
The (mis)allocation of capital Abhijit V. Banerjee Esther Duflo Kaivan Munshi September, 2002 Abstract Is capital allocated so that its marginal product is equated to the market interest rate? Is the marginal
Export Pricing and Credit Constraints: Theory and Evidence from Greek Firms. Online Data Appendix (not intended for publication) Elias Dinopoulos
Export Pricing and Credit Constraints: Theory and Evidence from Greek Firms Online Data Appendix (not intended for publication) Elias Dinopoulos University of Florida Sarantis Kalyvitis Athens University
ECON 312: Oligopolisitic Competition 1. Industrial Organization Oligopolistic Competition
ECON 312: Oligopolisitic Competition 1 Industrial Organization Oligopolistic Competition Both the monopoly and the perfectly competitive market structure has in common is that neither has to concern itself
Cost implications of no-fault automobile insurance. By: Joseph E. Johnson, George B. Flanigan, and Daniel T. Winkler
Cost implications of no-fault automobile insurance By: Joseph E. Johnson, George B. Flanigan, and Daniel T. Winkler Johnson, J. E., G. B. Flanigan, and D. T. Winkler. "Cost Implications of No-Fault Automobile
I. Basic concepts: Buoyancy and Elasticity II. Estimating Tax Elasticity III. From Mechanical Projection to Forecast
Elements of Revenue Forecasting II: the Elasticity Approach and Projections of Revenue Components Fiscal Analysis and Forecasting Workshop Bangkok, Thailand June 16 27, 2014 Joshua Greene Consultant IMF-TAOLAM
Testing The Quantity Theory of Money in Greece: A Note
ERC Working Paper in Economic 03/10 November 2003 Testing The Quantity Theory of Money in Greece: A Note Erdal Özmen Department of Economics Middle East Technical University Ankara 06531, Turkey [email protected]
INDUSTRY GROWTH, FIRM SIZE AND THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
INDUSTRY GROWTH, FIRM SIZE AND THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT SEPTEMBER 2008 THIS MICROREPORT WAS PRODUCED FOR REVIEW BY THE UNITED STATES AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT. IT WAS PREPARED BY THE IRIS CENTER,
Case Study of Unemployment Insurance Reform in North Carolina
Case Study of Unemployment Insurance Reform in North Carolina Marcus Hagedorn Fatih Karahan Iourii Manovskii Kurt Mitman Updated: March 25, 2014 Abstract In July 1, 2013 unemployed workers in North Carolina
Gains from Trade: The Role of Composition
Gains from Trade: The Role of Composition Wyatt Brooks University of Notre Dame Pau Pujolas McMaster University February, 2015 Abstract In this paper we use production and trade data to measure gains from
Testing the Taste-Based Discrimination Hypothesis: Evidence from Data on Japanese Listed Firms* Shinpei Sano
Testing the Taste-Based Discrimination Hypothesis: Evidence from Data on Japanese Listed Firms* Shinpei Sano Kobe Universy Using the market test methodology, we examine the employer discrimination theory.
Lecture 3: The Theory of the Banking Firm and Banking Competition
Lecture 3: The Theory of the Banking Firm and Banking Competition This lecture focuses on the industrial organisation approach to the economics of banking, which considers how banks as firms react optimally
Testing predictive performance of binary choice models 1
Testing predictive performance of binary choice models 1 Bas Donkers Econometric Institute and Department of Marketing Erasmus University Rotterdam Bertrand Melenberg Department of Econometrics Tilburg
The Real Business Cycle model
The Real Business Cycle model Spring 2013 1 Historical introduction Modern business cycle theory really got started with Great Depression Keynes: The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money Keynesian
individualdifferences
1 Simple ANalysis Of Variance (ANOVA) Oftentimes we have more than two groups that we want to compare. The purpose of ANOVA is to allow us to compare group means from several independent samples. In general,
Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs
Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs Andrew Gelman Guido Imbens 2 Aug 2014 Abstract It is common in regression discontinuity analysis to control for high order
Do Supplemental Online Recorded Lectures Help Students Learn Microeconomics?*
Do Supplemental Online Recorded Lectures Help Students Learn Microeconomics?* Jennjou Chen and Tsui-Fang Lin Abstract With the increasing popularity of information technology in higher education, it has
Social Security Eligibility and the Labor Supply of Elderly Immigrants. George J. Borjas Harvard University and National Bureau of Economic Research
Social Security Eligibility and the Labor Supply of Elderly Immigrants George J. Borjas Harvard University and National Bureau of Economic Research Updated for the 9th Annual Joint Conference of the Retirement
A Theory of Capital Controls As Dynamic Terms of Trade Manipulation
A Theory of Capital Controls As Dynamic Terms of Trade Manipulation Arnaud Costinot Guido Lorenzoni Iván Werning Central Bank of Chile, November 2013 Tariffs and capital controls Tariffs: Intratemporal
Consumer Price Indices in the UK. Main Findings
Consumer Price Indices in the UK Main Findings The report Consumer Price Indices in the UK, written by Mark Courtney, assesses the array of official inflation indices in terms of their suitability as an
A Review of the Literature of Real Business Cycle theory. By Student E XXXXXXX
A Review of the Literature of Real Business Cycle theory By Student E XXXXXXX Abstract: The following paper reviews five articles concerning Real Business Cycle theory. First, the review compares the various
Natural Gas market in Spain before market liberalization. Jesús Muñoz San Miguel. Yolanda Hinojosa Bergillos
ABSTRACT: Natural Gas market in Spain before market liberalization Jesús Muñoz San Miguel Yolanda Hinojosa Bergillos Universidad de Sevilla. Spain In this paper we analyze the natural gas market in Spain
A.2 The Prevalence of Transfer Pricing in International Trade
19. Transfer Prices A. The Transfer Price Problem A.1 What is a Transfer Price? 19.1 When there is a international transaction between say two divisions of a multinational enterprise that has establishments
Is Infrastructure Capital Productive? A Dynamic Heterogeneous Approach.
Is Infrastructure Capital Productive? A Dynamic Heterogeneous Approach. César Calderón a, Enrique Moral-Benito b, Luis Servén a a The World Bank b CEMFI International conference on Infrastructure Economics
Online Supplementary Material
Online Supplementary Material The Supplementary Material includes 1. An alternative investment goal for fiscal capacity. 2. The relaxation of the monopoly assumption in favor of an oligopoly market. 3.
