Enrollment Strategies Implementation Plan (ESIP) Phase I. Table of Contents. I. Context, Alignment and Steering Committee

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2 Enrollment Strategies Implementation Plan (ESIP) Phase I Table of Contents I. Context, Alignment and Steering Committee II. Market Analysis III. Enrollment Data and Trends IV. Fall 2014 Enrollment Targets V. Fall 2014 Enrollment Enhancement Strategies CONTEXT, ALIGNMENT AND STEERING COMMITTEE

3 Context The Enrollment Strategies Implementation Plan (ESIP) will be completed in two phases. Phase I will prescribe targets and strategies for Fall 2014 and Phase II will address targets and strategies for the next two to five years. This document specifically addresses Phase I and will provide opportunities to increase enrollments in Fall Phase II will provide a more in-depth study of NKU s enrollment landscape and will also include a student housing component. Work on Phase II will begin in January ESIP Alignment The Enrollment Strategies Implementation Plan (ESIP) is a subcomponent of NKU s new Strategic Plan. NKU s Strategic Plan outlines five primary goals with accompanying objectives. The ESIP most closely aligns with goal 1 - Student Success and goal 2 - Talent Development. Specifically, the ESIP will address the following objectives detailed in NKU s Strategic Plan: 1) Enroll more students to increase educational attainment levels and 2) Recruit more transfer students into baccalaureate programs. ESIP Steering Committee Members: Interim Associate VP for Enrollment Management, Chair (Joel Robinson) Vice Provost (Pat Moynahan) Director of Undergraduate Admissions (Melissa Gorbandt) Executive Director of Educational Outreach (Vicki Berling) Senior Director of Budget Office (Ken Kline) Director of University Housing (Arnie Slaughter) Assistant VP for Student Success & Assessment (Ryan Padgett) Associate Dean/Director of African American Programs & Services (Dannie Moore) Associate Provost for Research, Graduate Studies, and Regional Stewardship (Jan Hillard) Director of Business Operations and Auxiliary Services (Andy Meeks) Student representative (Elizabeth Ruwe, Junior, Public Relations and Spanish major) Interim Dean of the College of Education and Human Services (Carol Ryan) Interim Chair of History and Geography (Bill Landon) Resource Members: Executive Director of Planning & Performance (Vickie Natale) Vice President for Planning, Policy & Budget (Sue Moore) Director of Academic Planning & Assessment (Sandi Gillilan) Executive Director of Institutional Research (Katie Bontrager) Each member of the Steering Committee and Resource Team has worked diligently to complete the following plan. The plan was developed utilizing and inclusive, collaborative and cross-divisional approach.

4 MARKET ANALYSIS NEW FRESHMEN Demographic Outlook Demographics by State: o According to the Western Interstate Commission of Higher Education (WICHE), the number of high school graduates in Kentucky will decrease by 3,708 from Fall 2011 to Fall (Appendix A) o According to WICHE, the number of high school graduates in Ohio and Indiana will decrease by 10,443 from Fall 2011 to Fall (Appendix B) o According to WICHE, the number of high school graduates in Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio will decrease by 14,201 from Fall 2011 to Fall Therefore, the pool of potential new freshmen in NKU s primary recruitment states will decrease by 5.6% in this three year span. (Appendix C) The reduced availability of high school graduates in these three key states will intensify competition for new freshmen. Growth in new freshmen will require NKU to increase market share. o All of the states surrounding Kentucky, Ohio and Indiana are expected to have similar declines in high school graduates. This will further expand competition for new freshmen. (Appendix D) Demographics by Feeder High Schools: o According to data provided by NKU s feeder high schools - the number of projected high school graduates at NKU s top 30 feeder high schools (in Kentucky, Ohio and Indiana) will remain flat in 2014 and modest growth is expected in 2015 and Unfortunately, these projections are based on the number of current sophomores and juniors at these schools. Not all students will graduate so it is likely that the graduation numbers will actually be flat through Competitors will target our region due to the stable high school graduate numbers. (Appendix E) o The number of projected high school graduates at NKU s top feeder schools in Northern Kentucky will remain flat in 2014 and modest growth is expected in 2015 and Unfortunately, these projections are based on the number of current sophomores and juniors at these schools. Not all students will graduate so it is likely that the graduation numbers will actually be flat through (Appendix F) Demographics by County: o According to data reported by the area high schools - Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky will produce a flat number of high school graduates in 2014 (when compared with 2013). Each will experience modest growth in 2015 with some significant growth potential in Boone County by (Appendix G) Fall 2013 Market Share Analysis (defined by students sending ACT scores to NKU) Market Share by County o According to ACT s 2013 Enrollment Information Service (EIS), 2,015 of the 4,564 ACT test takers in Boone, Campbell and Kenton Counties had their ACT scores sent to NKU. Therefore, 44% of all test-takers in these counties had their scores sent to NKU. o According to ACT s 2013 EIS, 9% of all test takers in Hamilton County in Ohio sent scores to NKU and 22% of those in Clermont County sent scores to NKU.

5 Market Share by Feeder High School (Top 5 score senders by percentage) o Campbell County High School 56% of all test-takers sent scores to NKU. o Boone County High School 52% of all test-takers sent score to NKU. o Simon Kenton High School 52% of all test-takers sent scores to NKU. o Dixie Heights High School 49% of all test-takers sent scores to NKU. o Conner High School 45% of all test-takers sent scores to NKU. Market Share by Diversity o According to ACT s 2013 EIS, only 159 of the 4,564 ACT test-takers in Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties were African-American (therefore, only 3.5% of the testtakers were African-American). 56 of the 159 African-American test-takers in these three counties sent scores to NKU (35%). o According to ACT s 2013 EIS, only 148 of the 4,564 ACT test-takers in Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties were Hispanic (therefore, only 3.2% of the test-takers were Hispanic). 62 of the 148 Hispanic test-takers in these three counties sent scores to NKU (42%). Inquiry Analysis Fall 2014 Royall and Company has generated over 11,000 inquiries for the Fall 2014 class. Inquiries are students who have expressed an interest in NKU and are projected to meet our admission standards based on standardized test results. These inquiries have been generated through direct marketing efforts that Royall began when these students were high school sophomores. Prior to the partnership with Royall, NKU generated approximately 6,000 inquiries by this time in the recruitment cycle. (Appendix H) Competitor Analysis Fall 2013 According to research conducted by Royall and Company with students who chose not to attend NKU - 40% of our non-enrolling students chose to attend the following competitors (University of Cincinnati, University of Kentucky, University of Louisville, Eastern Kentucky University and Western Kentucky University) instead. Historical ACT data confirms that these five schools are our top competitors (based on where students send their test results). The top 2 reasons that students chose to attend elsewhere were academic reputation and campus environment. However, a significant percentage of students cited cost-related reasons for not attending NKU. (Appendix I) NEW TRANSFERS Two-Year Feeder College Outlook New domestic and international transfers to NKU were down to 799 in fall 2013, from 886 in This decrease is primarily due to a drop in enrollments from the University of Cincinnati branch campuses (Blue Ash and Clermont), Cincinnati State Community and Technical College, Ivy Tech and international students. This also reflects increased recruitment of transfers from these institutions by the University of Cincinnati. Based on the KCTCS Fact Book, the system as a whole showed a decrease of 10.5% or 11,388 students system wide. Our top feeder KCTCS institutions (Bluegrass, Gateway, Jefferson and Maysville) saw a decrease of 2,888 students from Fall 2011 to Fall 2012.

6 Ivy Tech reports overall enrollment decline of 6% from Fall 2011 to Fall 2012 at our primary Ivy Tech sites of Lawrenceburg and Madison. On the other hand, transfers to NKU from Gateway Community and Technical College were up in fall The newly signed Gateway2NKU pathways agreement holds much promise for increasing transfers from Gateway. In the first two weeks since the agreement was signed, 16 Gateway students have applied to the program. Ultimately, the pathways approach will be extended to all institutions in the KCTCS system. This includes a comprehensive advising model with Norse Advising and Transfer Center. A similar strategy is underway with Cincinnati State with the goal to launch 3-5 programs beginning Spring 2014 with additional pathways available in Fall Further, NKU recently entered into an articulation agreement with the state of Ohio public institutions that allows anyone graduating with an AA/AS degree from a regionally accredited institution in Ohio to enter NKU fully general-education certified. Opportunities to utilize Reverse Transfer models are being explored by NKU and Gateway. Competitor Analysis The University of Cincinnati recently announced a new program Cincinnati Pathway Scholars. This agreement strengthens academic partnerships, includes academic pathways and merit based scholarships. Additionally, a handful of colleges/universities are offering baccalaureate programs at Cincinnati State. The University of Cincinnati is expanding the baccalaureate programs available at Blue Ash and Clermont campuses. Indiana University Southeast is now offering baccalaureate programs on the campuses of Ivy Tech in Lawrenceburg and Madison Transfer students in the Greater Cincinnati marketplace are heavily recruited by a wide variety of institutions. Local institutions, including Thomas More College, Xavier University, The College of Mt. St. Joseph, and Wilmington College, have long offered adult-specific programs. New entrants with physical sites in Northern Kentucky are Indiana Wesleyan University, University of the Cumberlands, Strayer University, and Indiana Tech. Many online institutions heavily advertise in this market, including the University of Phoenix, Southern New Hampshire University, Arizona State University, and Colorado Tech. These new entrants tend to offer more flexible degree programs in high-demand majors like business and nursing. GRADUATE STUDENTS The Context for Viewing Graduate Program Marketing and Enrollments Historically, NKU s graduate programs have enjoyed organic growth, meaning we benefited from strong regional support coupled with the addition of new degrees on an almost yearly basis. As a result, there has not been a strong mandate to strategically assess the marketplace and respond to enrollment challenges. In a nutshell, we were somewhat spoiled and happy. We now must do business differently. This will take both strategic thinking and new resources. NKU has relied extensively on Program Directors for market information and recruitment. While programs are indeed close to their student market, program director s workloads in administering their programs present challenges to more intentional, robust recruitment efforts. New successful approaches to enrollment growth will require relying not only on Program Directors and the limited resources allocated to the Office of Graduate Programs, but leveraging existing resources (i.e. marketing to alums), investing in social media and developing an employer-based recruitment and cohort cultivation process.

7 As we more systematically approach graduate enrollment, we will find that NKU occupies a very small share of the Greater Cincinnati regional market, except for several programs in which we are distinctive or exclusive (i.e. Industrial/Organizational Psychology, Public History) or for which demand far outstrips supply (i.e. Masters of Science in Nursing). Context is of course important given the presence of the University of Cincinnati and Xavier in this market. Market Characteristics Tuition Re-imbursement o In general, businesses across the board, as well as the P-12, public and nonprofit sectors, have been reducing their budgets for tuition remission or eliminating this employee benefit altogether. Some employers have forged contractual relationships with service providers. Many of these agreements include on-site delivery and discounted tuition. At the same time, some businesses that have continued to offer tuition support find that employees are not taking advantage of these programs. General Perceptions of Graduate Degrees o Increasingly employers are raising questions about the value of Masters degrees. This is summed up in the expression, The Masters degree is the new Bachelors degree. To address these concerns and meet the market perception will take concerted awareness building and more importantly providing employers with opportunities to have voice in the development of our graduate programs. In addition, NKU needs to explore valueadded elements that provide distinction to our graduate program array and meet employers concerns and demands. This may include developing companion curricula that provide students with non-technical skills. These are the very skills employers routinely cite as a deficiency among both bachelors and masters level graduates. Degree-specific Market Factors o Two areas of graduate study have been particularly impacted by market changes. The first is Education and the second Business. In the case of Education, across the country, enrollment in MAT and MEd programs have been in ongoing decline. This is typically attributed to the ongoing public conversation about P-12 education, a conversation that has encouraged continual revising of licensures, trying new models, etc. These factors have led to the perception that P-12 is not a stable field, a field associated with low pay, and ongoing turmoil. This has impacted the market for these programs. In addition, the market has been impacted by the growing lack of tuition support for teachers from their school districts and the move away from salary schedules related to graduates degrees. Also, new competitors have entered the market who offer tuition that is 50% or more below NKU (i.e. the University of the Cumberlands). This is a price point NKU cannot and should not compete with. o The second area significantly impacted by market factors is Business, particularly the MBA. Starting a number of years ago, employers reported a glut of MBAs and wondered about the value of the traditional MBA. In response universities, including NKU, took bold steps to examine their MBA programs with an eye towards rigor and innovation, framing the new programs around cohort models. As a result, these universities are seeing lower enrollments in the revamped programs. This includes NKU. With some time, enrollments in these programs should recover. Programs that have incorporated new value-added curriculum such as business informatics seem to be recovering more quickly.

8 INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS Competition for International Students International student recruitment competition is increasing every semester. Universities in the UK, Canada, and Australia are increasing their efforts and students are responding to scholarships, perceived safety, world rankings, changing immigration laws, and the world economy. NKU is not only competing with the almost 4,000 US universities when recruiting international students, we are competing with countless universities around the world. NKU International Demographics More than 400 of the 630 international students enrolled at NKU are from Saudi Arabia. We are currently working to diversify the international student population through recruitment efforts in Asia (primarily China). The difficulties we are facing in China include, but are not limited to: rank driven audience, increased competition from other universities/ countries, lack of attraction to the Midwest, lack of name recognition, lack of program offerings, over saturated market (competition from universities with recruitment offices, etc. in country). POST TRADITIONAL STUDENTS Demographic Outlook Demographics in state and Cincinnati Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA): o Learners aged 23+ have comprised at least 50% of the total college population in the United States for the past decade. o At NKU, students aged 23+ comprise 35-39% of the undergraduate degree-seeking population. The largest enrollment was 5,156 (39% of total undergraduate enrollment) in Enrollment in 2013 was 4,907 (37% of total undergraduate enrollment). (Appendices J & K Total Enrollment by Year and Age by Year) Inquiries, applications and enrollments by students 23+ in campus-based academic programs have steadily declined since (Appendix L: Enrollment Stages) Enrollment in fully online undergraduate degree programs has grown by 77% since 2009 from 393 students to 694 students in fall 2013.Inquiries for fully online undergraduate programs is up slightly in the first quarter of , compared to the previous year. (Appendix M: Online Headcount by Year) Enrollment in PACE has grown by 67% since 2009 from 246 to 416 students in fall However, PACE headcount enrollment only grew by 3% from fall 2012 to fall 2013, the smallest rate of growth since the program was introduced in fall A greater percentage of PACE students are now enrolled on a part-time basis than in past years, which has resulted in a slight drop in total duplicated enrollment in PACE sections. (Appendix N: PACE Headcount by Year) o Recently released Lumina Foundation data indicates 516,394 (22.8%) of Kentuckians, aged 25-64, have some college but no degree; 186,589 (8%) have an associate degree (total: 702,983 Kentuckians without a bachelor degree). o According to a 2012 CPE analysis, only 6% of the adult population in KY is currently being served. The need for continued education of post-traditional students in Kentucky is heightened by the fact that 54% of all jobs in Kentucky will require some level of postsecondary education by 2018.

9 o The bachelor-degree-attainment in Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties approximates that of the country as a whole, but degree-attainment in the southern counties in the NKU service area dramatically lags behind. Similarly, degree attainment in Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio exceed the national average. Butler County is slightly below the national average, while the remaining Clermont and Brown counties are well below the national average. The bachelor-completion rates in all three counties in Indiana are significantly below the national average. o Overall, the bachelor-completion rate in Greater Cincinnati is 29.3% of the population. Based on 2010 census data, approximately 407,000 adults in the market do not have a bachelor degree. Competitor Analysis Fall 2013 o Post-traditional students in the Greater Cincinnati marketplace are heavily recruited by a wide variety of institutions. Local institutions, including Thomas More College, Xavier University, The College of Mt. St. Joseph, and Wilmington College, have long offered adultspecific programs. New entrants with physical sites in Northern Kentucky are Indiana Wesleyan University, University of the Cumberlands, Strayer University, and Indiana Tech. Many online institutions heavily advertise in this market, including the University of Phoenix, Southern New Hampshire University, Arizona State University, and Colorado Tech. These new entrants tend to offer more flexible degree programs in high-demand majors like business and nursing.

10 FALL ENROLLMENT DATA FIVE YEAR TRENDS Total Enrollment 15,405 15,748 15,738 15,661 15,283 Undergraduate Total 13,206 13,517 13,322 13,345 13,116 Freshmen 3,946 4,061 4,017 3,765 *3,485 Sophomore 2,222 2,276 2,297 2,359 *2,362 Junior 2,302 2,250 2,322 2,514 *2,455 Senior 3,604 3,638 3,554 3,603 *3,569 New Freshmen 2,275 2,337 2,271 2,108 2,226 New Transfers School-Based Scholars Graduate Enrollment 1,593 1,615 1,841 1,768 1,661 Applications ** 1,122 1,129 1,189 1,145 1,115 New Enrollments ** Law Enrollment Fall to Fall Retention Freshmen Cohort (First-time, Full-time, Bachelor Degree, Fall Semester) Number in Cohort Returned Following Fall Retention Rate Fall ,963 1, % Fall ,159 1, % Fall ,211 1, % Fall ,200 1, % Fall ,843 1, % All data is final as reported by IR (except where noted). * Indicates data reported by BW reporting. ** Indicates data reported by Graduate Programs Office.

11 Specific Populations (All Students) Post-traditional (23 or older) 5,095 5,023 5,023 5,156 4,907 International *** Veteran Benefit Recipients **** KY Residents 10,899 11,102 10,784 10,507 10,187 Full-time Students 10,555 10,712 10,704 10,760 10,605 African-American Hispanic Fall to Fall Retention Rate of All Students Total enrolled in Fall ,661 Baseline (less degrees conferred) 13,007 Returned in Fall ,334 (71.76%) Fall 2014 Projection of All Students (assumes graduation numbers and inputs remain the constant) Total Enrolled in Fall ,283 Projected baseline (less degrees conferred) 12,693 Projected return in Fall ,108 (71.76%) Projected drop in overall enrollment in Fall 2014: 226 students All data is final as reported by IR (except where noted). ***Indicates data was provided by the Office of International Students and Scholars **** Indicates data was provided by Veterans Resource Station

12 ENROLLMENT TARGETS FALL 2014 Assumptions Based on the most recent all-student retention (71.76%), NKU s overall enrollment is projected to be down by approximately 226 students in Fall Therefore, we must address this shortfall before enrollment growth can be achieved. Based on current progression-related efforts, it is believed that all-student retention will increase slightly. Consequently, we are projecting a decline of 216 instead of 226. All strategies recommended by the Enrollment Strategies Implementation Plan (ESIP) Steering Committee will be implemented and funded appropriately. Target Development Targets are based on a thorough review of enrollment trends and market analysis. Targets represent the number increase/decrease using Fall 2013 as a baseline. Targets Population Increase/Decrease over Fall 2013 First to Second Year Retention New Freshmen New Transfers + 35 School Based Scholars Stop-out Campaign + 40 Total Undergraduate +418 Total Graduate New Students (1% increase) Flat Flat Law -27 Total Enrollment +391 Anticipated Decrease in Enrollment Net Enrollment Increase (based on all student retention rate) Targeted Populations (Increases below have been calculated into the projections above) International - 30 Post-Traditional + 60 Veterans (including dependents) Graduate Assumptions/Target Development: see next page

13 GRADUATE ASSUMPTIONS / TARGET DEVELOPMENT Assumptions Fall 2014 graduate enrollment targets assume that the factors historically influencing selectivity and yield rates will remain constant. There will be no new marketing funds through Fall Therefore the impact of general marketing will be assumed to be a constant. Marketing funds were drastically reduced in 2010, eliminating a number of effective approaches, including regional advertising in business publications. Retention rates are assumed to be constant. While these have not been analyzed for graduate programs, since the quality of incoming graduate students has remained constant and there are no major factors driving more stop out, no change in retention rates is anticipated going forward to Fall There is only one new program that will be rolled out in the Spring 2014 (HAS). The program has an anticipated enrollment of 8-10 students. Predicting graduate enrollments is made more difficult since prior to Fall of 2011 graduate enrollments were growing at a steady pace. Disentangling the two year decline is imprecise at best. There are several factors that the decline may be attributed to. Knowing the independent impact of each is difficult to quantify. Regional factor impacts include: 1. The general economy 2. Employers offering less tuition re-imbursement 3. Reported perception of the questionable value of a masters degree 4. Potential market saturation as NKU s programs age 5. Ongoing challenges associated with the future of Education degrees 6. Significant undercutting of tuition by online institutions, especially in Education degrees. Internal (NKU) factors associated with the enrollment decline include: 1. Redesign of the MBA to a cohort model with Fall only admission and higher entrance requirements (higher GMAT and 5 years work experience). 2. Issues faced with the roll out of the online DNP to other states (regulatory). 3. Enrollment caps for high demand programs such as the MSN. Target Development Targets were developed after reviewing the predicted impact of the following: Selectivity rates (% apply who are admitted) have been constant = 63% Yield rates (% enrolled who were admitted) have been constant = 76% Spring 2014 applications are currently down 17% as compared to this time last Spring Admission standards have been constant across all programs with the exception of the higher standards for the new MBA Pattern of enrollment from growth that averaged 7% per year. Beginning in Fall 2012 growth in enrollment declined by 3% followed by a second year decline in Fall 2013 of 6.3%. (Headcount drop: 2011 (1825) 2012 (1769) 2013 (1657). The headcount change from Fall 2011-Fall 2012 was 168 students. It should be noted that the growth in 2011 was almost 8%, the second highest single year growth since New program impact. The Health Sciences program will be rolled out in the Fall with a projected enrollment of 8-10.

14 APPENDIX A PROJECTED KENTUCKY HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES * * Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education

15 APPENDIX B OHIO HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION DATA * * Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education

16 APPENDIX B INDIANA HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION DATA * * Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education

17 APPENDIX C TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION DATA (KENTUCKY, OHIO, INDIANA) * Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education

18 APPENDIX D TENNESSEE HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION DATA * * Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education

19 APPENDIX D ILLINOIS HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION DATA * * Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education

20 APPENDIX D MICHIGAN HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION DATA * * Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education

21 APPENDIX D PENNSYLVANIA HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION DATA * * Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education

22 APPENDIX D VIRGINIA HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION DATA * * Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education

23 APPENDIX D WEST VIRGINIA HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION DATA * * Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education

24 APPENDIX E TOP 30 FEEDER HIGH SCHOOLS GRADUATION DATA (NORTHERN KY, OHIO, INDIANA)

25 APPENDIX F NORTHERN KY FEEDER HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION DATA

26 APPENDIX G NORTHERN KY HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION DATA BY COUNTY Boone County Campbell County Kenton County

27 Achieve success year after year Appendix H NKU is positioned well for enrollment growth Search Campaign Generated Inquiries Entering Classes Seniors Seniors Juniors 1

28 Achieve success year after year 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Appendix I Non-attender responses why they chose to attend elsewhere 17.6% 14.0% 10.0% 9.6% 8.6% 8.2% Northern Kentucky University N = % of students cite cost-related reasons 7.3% 4.8% 4.8% 4.2% 3.3% 2.9% 2.5% 1.9% 0.2%

29 Appendix J Total Enrollment by Year, Ages

30 Appendix K Age by Year, Ages

31 Appendix L Enrollment Stages for Post-Traditional Students, Note: 2013 is through fall semester, as of 11/1/13 only Inquiry Applicant Decision 800 Confirmation Enrolled

32 Appendix M Undergraduate Online Headcount by Year Fall 13 Fall 12 Fall 11 Fall 10 Fall

33 Appendix N PACE Headcount by Year