2 Day In House Demand Planning & Forecasting Training Outline

Transcription

1 2 Day In House Demand Planning & Forecasting Training Outline On-site Corporate Training at Your Company's Convenience! For further information or to schedule IBF s corporate training at your company, please contact us at: Tel: [email protected] I. Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecasting: People, Processes and Technology Demand Planning & Forecasting is a combination of art and science. When done properly, it can provide a true competitive edge, and financial benefit to the company. In this module you will learn about key basic forecasting & planning concepts, how forecasting relates to planning, and how to consider and use forecasting error. Furthermore, we will discuss forecasting & demand planning in regard to people, processes and technology. We will show you how they are used for optimal results. Key terminology and concepts will also be discussed in this module. Learn how to structure a demand planning process to get the best results for your forecasting & planning efforts. Learn how the forecasting process impacts forecast accuracy and how to gain forecast buy in/ acceptance within the organization. Learn the roles and responsibilities of key participants in the process and how to coordinate them. Learn how forecasts impact management decisions. Learn the types of forecasting to be considered in developing a demand planning process. 1

2 Learn about the needs, goals, and perspectives of the key participants and users of the demand forecast. Learn approaches to handling products and data patterns, which are easy to forecast, as well as those that are difficult to forecast. Learn how to manage and deal with bias across business functions and people toward forecasting & planning Learn when to use shipment forecasts, unit forecasts, revenue forecasts as compared to order(demand) forecasts Learn the benefits of consumption based forecasting, also known as POS data forecasting II. The Demand Planning & Forecasting Process: Basics of Demand Forecasting and Their Drivers for Operations/ Supply Chain Planning This module will delve deeper and cover forecasting and planning processes in more detail, including how they impact supply chain planning to minimize operating costs and free up working capital, and more. The forecasting process drives and supports the key decisions and planning processes of a company. An important part of this module will include the consensus meeting and benefits of a single number forecast. Also, you will learn how to compute safety stocks with demand forecasts and to better manage inventory. Key process concepts and terms will also be covered in this session. But most importantly, you will learn process best practices that can be used to improve your demand planning process and achieve the best forecasting results. Learn what the bullwhip effect is, its effect on forecasting & planning, and how to prevent this from happening Learn about the key drivers and the considerations in operations planning/ supply chain management, and the role forecasting plays Learn about the related inventory and customer fulfillment issues that will be of concern to your company operations, and how to manage and hedge against them Learn how to design a demand planning & forecasting process that is goal and decision driven. Learn how to integrate management and user needs into the process. Learn how to establish priorities for forecasting & planning, how much time to spend and where to spend it, as well as how to hedge against the Unforecastable Learn how to setup a demand planning consensus meeting and be driven by a single number forecasts III. Collaborative Processes: Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) and Collaborative, Planning, Forecasting, & Replenishment (CPFR) 2

3 A key use of the demand plan is its input into Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) and other planning processes. This process is used to coordinate the company s operations in order to balance supply with demand, and to achieve key company goals. Also, Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, & Replenishment (CPFR) is used by many companies with key accounts to better and more efficiently manage their business. This has been especially successful for many suppliers that have utilized CPFR with retailers. In this module, you will hear the pros and cons of CPFR driven by POS/ Syndicated data for consumer centric forecasting, and how to use it. Plus, success factors and common challenges, along with how to deal with them, will be discussed. Learn how to design an optimal S&OP process and manage it effectively Learn the relationship and interaction of demand planning and supply chain planning Learn how to structure and manage the monthly S&OP cycle Learn how to organize and manage S&OP meetings and ensure top management support Learn Demand Sensing & Demand Shaping for balancing supply with demand to achieve company goals Learn what are supply & demand planning operational levers Learn the basics of CPFR, success factors, and challenges Learn the nature of POS & Syndicated data, and the valuable market intelligence they provide Learn how to use POS/ syndicated data for consumer centric forecasting to support CPFR activities Learn the sources of syndicated data such as AC Neilson and IRI Learn how to pilot and launch CPFR with key accounts/ customers Learn CPFR process steps and supporting elements, such as the business plan, handling of exceptions, and order policy IV. Data Management, Forecasting & Planning Error, and Measurement Metrics The heart of forecasting and planning is improving demand forecast accuracy that ultimately leads to favorable inventory levels, improved customer service, an optimized supply chain, and greater profits. But, how does one know what to improve if nothing is measured? In this module you will learn how to measure performance, and learn what the contributing forces to the error in your forecasts and plans are. You will also learn how to calculate the cost of error to your business and truly show upper management what it means to the bottom line to improve each percentage of error. Also, demand planning & forecasting efforts are based upon the availability of reliable, relevant, standardized, and usable data. This module will also discuss processes for getting your data ready for demand forecasting in turn bringing you better results. 3

4 Learn how to define and locate important data for your forecasting effort Learn how to analyze data to determine patterns that are useful for your planning and forecasting processes. Learn how to cleanse data and deal with data outliers, missing data, promotional effects, events, unit of measure mismatches, seasonal and trend effects, and other considerations in ensuring that you have usable and relevant information Learn how to identify and measure the outside forces affecting your business in order to create better forecasts and plans. Learn about different error measurement metrics, and their pros and cons, that can be used to better understand your forecasting and planning performance Learn how to develop Key Performance Indicators (KPI s) that are most appropriate and applicable to your organization s needs Learn about the cost of error, calculating the impact of error on your business, and how to reduce error in your forecasts and plans Learn how to use error as information feedback to improve your future plans and forecasts, as well as a source of business information for your company s management V. Forecasting Models: Time Series Methods, & How to Select Which One to Use The right model for the right data is vital to accurate forecasting and business planning. In this module, you will learn how to develop forecast models that achieve your accuracy goals. Essential principles of model evaluation and selection will be discussed, along with which model to use and when. Furthermore, various forms and techniques used in time series models will be covered. As of 2008, according to IBF's benchmarking research, 61% of companies use time series methods for forecasting. In this module, you will learn what types of time series models are available, and how to measure their performance. Furthermore, the characteristics, benefits, and limitations of exponential smoothing will also be discussed during this here. Key forecast model concepts and terminology will be discussed throughout the module. Also, data sets, templates, and exercises will be provided to optimize the learning. Learn how to evaluate and match data patterns with forecast models. Learn the fundamental differences between time series forecasting and using cause and effect/ regression models. Learn how to evaluate accuracy in selecting your model, and how to establish in advance, the expected accuracy and range of forecasts Learn key concepts and terminology of time series forecasting models and methods 4

5 Learn how to estimate seasonal factors, and improve forecast accuracy Learn how to disaggregate your best category level forecasts into their respective SKU forecasts Learn how to track and prepare forecasts using the sales ratio method Learn how prepare forecasts using several models based on averages, as well as exponential smoothing VI. Cause & Effect/ Regression Models for Forecasting & When They are Most Appropriate For longer term forecasting, what if scenario, sensitivity analysis, and for situations where it is important to explain what is affecting your business, regression forecasting models, otherwise known as cause and effect forecasting models, are a powerful tool. For example, regression models allow you to quantify and determine the impact of your marketing promotions on sales; quantify and determine the impact of product price changes on sales; and much more. Plus, in this module, data sets, templates, and exercises will be provided to optimize the learning. Learn the benefits of cause and effect models as well as when and how to use them Learn how to build a cause and effect model and prepare forecasts that meet your needs Learn the necessary data requirements, and transformations that can make your cause and effect models more effective Learn how to validate and gain confidence in your cause and effect forecasts by evaluating and putting the model through diagnostic testing such as ex post forecasting & more VII. New Product Forecasting & Planning: Making Decisions When Little or No Data is Available How do you forecast for products when you have little or no history? New product forecasting is a unique forecasting challenge due to absence of data, as well as the higher degree of uncertainty associated with them. In particular, this module will show you the role of judgment and how to use it more effectively to improve the chances of success in forecasting new products & services. The common qualitative and quantitative models used in new product forecasting will be discussed including characteristics, benefits, and risks. Plus, you will hear how new product forecasting & planning is incorporated in the S&OP process, and more. 5

6 Learn what to expect when developing and forecasting for new products & services Learn what models are available to forecast new products and how to use them in combination, e.g. cause and effect model and diffusion model. Learn how to use both quantitative and qualitative methods in combination to get better results in your forecasts Learn how to structure a new product development planning and forecasting process Learn who should be involved and when in the new product forecasting & planning process Learn how to modulate your forecasts and forecast methods as the new products approach their launch time Learn the role of judgment and how collaborative efforts improve new product forecasts & plans. VIII. Demand Planning & Forecasting Software Systems: Selection, Audits, and More Forecasting & planning is made easier with the support of a dedicated demand planning & forecasting software and systems. After making sure you have the proper process in place, the next step is automating the process with technology. As the sources for forecasting input increase, along with the number of SKUs that require forecasts, it is an absolute must to invest in technology to speed up the forecasting process. In this module, we will talk about the pitfalls in software selection and what to look for in an application that is right for you. The IBF is an objective organization: it doesn't support one vendor over another. Therefore, you will receive unbiased direction on how to meet your technology needs in Demand Planning & Forecasting for achieving greater business performance. Learn why it is important to determine the process first and then decide on the system that aligns with the process Learn who should be involved in identifying the process you need as well as validating the process prior to a software application roll out Learn the pros and cons of using software to automate processes Learn what attributes to look for in a forecasting software/ system that is best for you Learn how to determine the need for a forecasting & demand planning application IX. Corporate Benchmarks, Best Practices, and Gaining Buy in Through Better Communication in Demand Planning & Forecasting 6

7 An important frame of reference is what has emerged as benchmarks and best practices by successful companies. Using information gathered over many years through contributors to IBF conferences and publications, as well as through surveys completed by IBF members, best practices and benchmarks have been developed covering many areas of the forecasting & planning discipline. Along with benchmarks, this module will also cover how demand planning and forecasting professionals should present their forecasts and plans to gain organizational buy in. This will include guidelines for effective meetings, reports, behavior, presentations, and more. Learn about dealing with difficult people, resolving conflict, dealing with a range of people who have different needs and priorities Learn the basics of running an effective review meeting, how to structure an appropriate agenda, and how to prepare the most effective presentation materials. Learn how to more effectively communicate with different levels of management and professionals and managers in different functional areas of the company Learn some of the most important characteristics in communicating forecasts based upon the experience of demand planners & forecasters at best in class companies Learn how to use benchmarking for all dimensions of your forecasting & planning activities Learn about the success factors and best practices in the forecasting & planning process. Learn about the best practices of companies in developing models and accurately forecasting with them Learn how best practices/ best in class companies use software to support their forecasting models and data needs, as well as how they track their accuracy over time For further information or to schedule IBF s corporate training at your company, please contact us at: Tel: [email protected] 7