Tokyo Office THOUGHT PIECE 15 / 02. Ali Miremadi. March 2015

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1 15 / 02 Tokyo Office Ali Miremadi Last year we visited Tokyo twice up from our typical annual visit and were struck by the opportunity represented by the office market there. In summary: rents are low by historical and international standards but are starting to rise; vacancies across the five central wards are low; new supply is low; the cash flow of corporate Japan (the tenants) is high; the positive carry available for developers and owners of prime office space over their cost of funding is the highest in the developed world; government and Bank of Japan policy is highly accommodative; and the fall in the value of the Yen compared to other international currencies helps make prices appealing to the international investor while also making Japan more competitive. There is a slow but structural shift away from manufacturing to services in the economy which favours central Tokyo. Japan is also becoming more welcoming to foreign visitors, whether tourists coming for the shopping, food, skiing, history and natural beauty or Asian investors looking to buy inexpensive real estate in a perceived safe haven Asian nation. We have made investments in three developers which will benefit from these trends: Mitsubishi Estate, Mitsui Fudosan and Tokyu Fudosan. GLOBAL COMPARISON OF OFFICE RENTAL RATES Rent per sqf (USD) Source: CBRE Global Research and Consulting, Q Tokyo is a visibly flourishing city which continues to grow in headcount and wealth even as the country as a whole suffers from a falling population. Famously the Emperor s Palace in the bubble years of the late 1980s was valued more highly than the state of California (one wonders quite how the latter calculation was done it has now become a financial factoid). After the twenty five years of financial famine which followed that bubble, Tokyo land prices are still around two-thirds below their peaks. However more recently, after a small dip following the global credit crisis, land prices have started to rise in both commercial and residential sectors. THS THOUGHT PIECE 01

2 MAP OF KEY SITES/DEVELOPMENTS FOR MITSUBISHI ESTATE, TOKYU FUDOSAN AND MITSUI FUDOSAN NIHONBASHI MITSUI TOWER AKASAKA BIZ TOWER IMPERIAL PALACE Mitsubishi Estate (Marunouchi development) Tokyu Fudosan (Shibuya development) TOKYO MIDTOWN GRANTOKYO NORTH TOWER Mitsui Fudosan (Primary sites) Source: THS, company websites, Map data 2015 Google, ZENRIN Tokyo s downtown is demarcated by the Yamanote Line, a circular metro line which runs through Tokyo Station on the East Side (where Mitsubishi Estate owns the prime Marunouchi office area), down to Shinagawa station in the South, around to Shibuya and Shinjuku on the West Side and then up to Ueno Park in the north, where many of the national museums are located. All five central wards of Tokyo lie within or around the line Chuo, Chiyoda, Minato, Shinagawa and Shibuya. The best known Tokyo areas are also within the Yamanote Line, such as Roppongi, Ginza and Akihabara. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RENTAL RATES AND VACANCY RATES AVERAGE RENTAL RATES ( /TSUBO) AVERAGE VACANCY RATES Source: Daiwa, Vacancy rate data as at 5 February 2015 THS THOUGHT PIECE 02

3 The entire area has very little available space, with vacancies in the office market in the five central wards around 5% 1, and in the portfolios of our investments even lower than this. Capitalization rates vary from 2.5% to 5%, which compares to funding rates for well established players below 1% 2. Rents are well off their 2007 peaks, though they are starting to move higher. The wellestablished monetary policy driven by a combination of Prime Minister Abe and Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda is focused squarely on increasing money supply while keeping interest rates low. The longer this persists, the greater the attraction of positive carry on prime real estate assets. International real estate investors have noticed this positive carry already, and its appeal has increased by a considerable degree (depending on their base currency) as the Yen has fallen by an average of 50% 3 against its major trading partners. Prime Tokyo office space is in short supply, enjoys positive carry and is internationally reasonably priced compared to other major cities. London (both West End and City), Hong Kong, Beijing, Moscow, New Delhi and midtown Manhattan prime office rents are all higher than those in Tokyo. In addition the spread between yields available on prime space and the cost of funding is higher in Japan than in any other international market. RECENT TRENDS IN VACANCY RATES AND RENTAL RATES BROKEN DOWN BY WARD Source: Miki Shoji, Tokyo (5 Central Wards) Office Building Market Research Reports, January 2015 THS THOUGHT PIECE 03

4 BASIC FINANCIALS AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Source: Goldman Sachs, Tokyo correspondence, 3 February 2015, THS analysis Mitsubishi Estate We have met with Mitsubishi Estate several times over the years, and indeed have held the stock during the past decade. Mitsubishi Estate is one of the two largest listed Japanese real estate developers. It has a collection of prime office property in Marunouchi and Otemachi, adjoining areas just next to the Emperor s Palace and Tokyo Station. It owns the most high grade office area in Tokyo. The estimated current market value of Mitsubishi Estate s rental properties is 5.4tr ($50bn) 4. The market capitalisation at a share price of 2389 is 3.3tr ($30.5bn) and a current enterprise value of 5.4tr 5. Today Mitsubishi Estate lets out its prime office space at 23,500/tsubo/month ($75/square foot per year) 6, a discount not just to London s West End but to the City, and also a discount to Manhattan s midtown district. Vacancy rates are a reported 6.4% 7 but are more realistically around 3%, given not every last tsubo can be utilised. Meanwhile Mitsubishi Estate is into the second ten-year plan of renovating six of its thirty Marunouchi banner buildings, which has a demonstrated programmatic effect of facilitating higher rents. The first ten year plan which ran to 2008 covered a period in which operating cash flow from the relevant six buildings rose almost three times. Expectations for the current plan the ones which will follow are for a comparable increase. In addition to that around 20-30% of current tenants are paying sub market rents, partly because of rent concessions given by Mitsubishi Estate to keep existing tenants during the financial crisis of The renegotiations of these rents (which are currently ongoing) add a positive kicker to this increase. THS THOUGHT PIECE 04

5 There is also deregulation under the current Abe government which has relaxed planning permission in central Tokyo which will allow existing landowners to extend and redevelop beyond previous limits. Since 2012 tenants in Marunouchi have begun to accept rent increases of 5-10% 9. With vacancies at their current very low levels, management is confident further rent increases will be achieved. Mitsubishi Estate does have other businesses beyond the Marunouchi/Otemachi properties. It has a condo development business in Tokyo, on a build-and-sell model; it controls the management company for an affiliated JREIT (Japan Real Estate Investment Trust) into which it sells developed projects; there is an international business, concentrated in New York (Rockefeller Centre) and London (Paternoster Square has been sold and some of the assets transferred to Petty France and Victoria); and a retail shopping centre joint venture with Simon Properties diversified across Japan. Cap rates have fallen across the Japanese businesses since 2010, as might be expected, and Mitsubishi Estate now estimates them at 4% in Marunouchi, 4.25% in Ginza retail property, 4.75% in Roppongi offices, 4.9% in Shinjuku offices, 5.2% in residential property and 6.25% in suburban shopping centres 10. These cap rates are at a significant premium to borrowing costs in Japan, creating very real carry opportunities. This both creates a basis from which the value of prime Tokyo real estate is likely to increase and also an ongoing value opportunity for development by Mitsubishi Estate itself. A sovereign wealth fund investor is reported to have paid 170bn for a mixed use building close to Tokyo Station this year at a reputed cap rate of 2.8% 11. If we apply this to the 60% of Mitsubishi Estate s portfolio which is broadly comparable and then take the blended cap rate for the portfolio to 3.3% this would raise the pre-tax value of the property portfolio to 6.5tr around double the current market capitalisation. Total interest bearing debt stands at 60% of total capital 12. The equity component of this is however the stated balance sheet equity, which includes real estate assets at cost, rather than the considerably higher market value. Using market prices total debt stands at a rather more conservative 28% of total capital. Loan to value is 40% 13. Recent bond issues have been at maturities of between 5 and 10 years and at interest rates of between 0.187% and 1.067% 14. We assume some contraction in capitalisation rates (to 3.2% on offices and 4.7% in retail) along with modest rent increases over the next few years which gives a 2016 NAV of 3,520, compared to a price today of 2,389, though there is plenty of room for that NAV to grow. MAP OF MARUNOUCHI DISTRICT Source: Mitsubishi Corporation website as at 23/02/2015 THS THOUGHT PIECE 05

6 Tokyu Fudosan Tokyu Fudosan is a real estate company which has the bulk of its existing estate around Shibuya station, with properties also in the prime shopping area of Ginza and the electronics dominated area of Akihabara. Shibuya Station is Japan s second largest terminal station (after Tokyo station), has the largest agglomeration of IT companies in Japan and is the number one destination for foreign visitors, just ahead of Shinjuku and Ginza. Tokyu Fudosan has a parent company, Tokyu Corp, which owns 17% of Fudosan s shares. Tokyu Corp is primarily a railway company which operates the line running west from Shibuya down to the residential area of Yokohama. Tokyu Fudosan is the product of a combination of three formerly separately listed companies: Tokyu Land (a landlord and property developer), Tokyu Livable (an estate agency) and Tokyu Community (a condominium and office management agency). Tokyu Fudosan also manages two JREITS, Activia Properties and Comforia Residential, into which it sells development properties which it then continues to manage. There are three core areas of exposure within Tokyu Fudosan s portfolio which are highly attractive. First is an existing and development portfolio of office buildings around Shibuya, where vacancies are even lower than elsewhere in central Tokyo at around 2% 15, with strong demand and the potential for rent rises over the next several years. Vacancies in the five central wards across the industry are around 5%, with the 23 wards of greater Tokyo having a vacancy level of 4.5% 16. Rents in Shibuya are currently around 18,000/tsubo ($66/square foot) 17. Secondly there is an inbound tourism shopping portfolio, with a new development within Ginza which will feature Tokyo s largest duty-free shopping destination on schedule to be delivered in Finally Tokyu Fudosan has a condo business which delivers around 2,500 condos a year, where typical 70m 2 apartments sell at prices ranging from 30mm in the Osaka region ($250k) to 50mm ($423k) in metropolitan Tokyo to 100mm for more luxurious 100m 2 apartments in central Tokyo 18. Tokyo is flourishing with a combination of strong demand for office space, limited supply, a sharp increase in inbound tourism and the longer term excitement of the 2020 Olympic Games along with the increased flow of travellers from Haneda Airport. Tokyu Fudosan stands to gain from these trends with its existing portfolio of Shibuya office space along with prime retail space. CBRE s research team forecast rents in Grade A Tokyo offices to rise by 24% from current levels by the end of There are four specific projects being delivered over the next four years which will enhance this. In 2016 the Ginza 5-chome project is due to be delivered, which will include the largest duty free shopping mall in Tokyo at the heart of the most blue-chip shopping district. Then three development projects around Shibuya station covering office space, retail and serviced apartments are also on track. The total investment required by these four projects is around 820bn, of which the bulk will be financed through capital recycled from the JREITS, with the next slice paid for by free cash flow from the existing portfolio along with 100bn of new debt. Tokyu Fudosan currently borrows either from banks or through corporate bonds at rates below 1%, while using a 4.5% capitalisation rate to value their own existing tenanted portfolio and using a 5% benchmark for new development projects. Tokyu Fudosan is one of the more levered developers, with a 59% loan to value ratio as it works on its new projects. Using cap rates of 3.7% for their offices and 4.5% for their retail assets as well as some modest rental increases we calculate a NAV per share in 2016 of 1,170, which compares to a current share price of 800. THS THOUGHT PIECE 06

7 SHIBUYA DISTRICT Source: Tokyu Land website as at 23/02/2015 Mitsui Fudosan Mitsui Fudosan is the second largest of the Tokyo developers by assets, after Mitsubishi Estate. The company was carved out of the Mitsui zaibatsu during the Second World War and built the first skyscraper in Japan (the Kasumigaseki Building). Mitsui Fudosan s leasing business is two-thirds office building, one third retail. Leased buildings include many of central Tokyo s landmark buildings, including SMBC s head office in Marunouchi, the GranTokyo North Tower, and the Tokyo Midtown building. In addition they have a number of prime buildings in Nihonbashi, a premium area in Chuo ward just to the east of Tokyo Station. They also have some prime retail properties, including the LaLaport property in Tokyo Bay. Mitsui Fudosan did its first equity raise in over thirty years during 2014 raising 329bn at 3,138 a share to fund developments, some of which will be overseas. There are two office blocks going up in Manhattan. The two biggest current Tokyo office developments are in Mitsui Fudosan s core area of Nihonbashi and in Hibiya, an area just at the southern tip of Marunouchi. THS THOUGHT PIECE 07

8 The property sales business delivered 6,500 condominiums in the past twelve months condo development is a bigger part of Mitsui Fudosan s business than for our other two holdings. A shortage of labour has pushed up costs in condos, which along with the recent increase in consumption tax has led to a slowing of demand. In the Tokyo area however affordability of condos remains good, with mortgage loan repayments below 30% of annual income. Absolute prices are also reasonable, with a luxury 100 square metre condo in central Tokyo costing 100mm ($847k), a 70m 2 flat in metropolitan Tokyo costing 50mm ($423k) 20. As well as being affordable for the domestic buyer these prices are attracting demand from Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore who see Tokyo property as being both very attractively priced compared to their domestic markets and also of course becoming cheaper thanks to the fall in the value of the Yen. Mitsui Fudosan s property management business is 70% property management, 30% brokerage. The condominium business is also heavily focussed on Tokyo, with most of the projects due to be delivered over the next three years in Chiyoda, Shinagawa, Minato and Shibuya wards. Mitsui Fudosan manages three J-REITS (Nippon Building Fund, Nippon Accommodation Fund and Frontier Real Estate Investment Corporation) as well as two private funds. Mitsui Fudosan s loan to value ratio is 41% 21. If we apply a cap rate of 3.2% to its office portfolio and 5.4% to retail the 2016 NAV per share is 4,360, comparing to a current share price of 3,100. The dividend yield is around 70bps. GRANTOKYO TOWER NIHONBASHI MITSUI TOWER Source: Mitsui Fudosan website as at 23/02/2015 THS THOUGHT PIECE 08

9 Conclusion: There are risks to balance when considering our thesis. Abenomics is a project which has been framed within the narrative of the three arrows: monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and structural reform. The first arrow has been fired, the second can be reloaded but the third is a complex, multi year affair comprised of changes to the labour market, a different view on immigration, integrating more women into the workplace, encouraging changes in corporate behaviour to facilitate raising wages and incentivising growth capex, introducing a new code of corporate stewardship, deregulation in general and specifically around agriculture, perhaps the industry most protected in many countries around the world. None of these are easy to achieve and, more qualitatively, changing the mind-set of a country and culture is no simple task. Real estate is a function of general economic activity rents can normally only rise when buildings are full so the success of our theme to some extent relies on the fortunes of this project. Another risk to our expected scenario is the currency. Many people are very negative on the future prospects for the Japanese Yen, exacerbated by the Bank of Japan s clear aim to continue to expand the money supply. Our view is that having fallen from 75 to the US$ to a level of 120, or from 95 to the Euro to around , the Yen has already moved from being substantially overvalued to being somewhere a little below fair value now. Japan is a noticeably good value place to visit now for the international traveller, compared to London, Paris or New York. Purchasing power parity estimates for the USD/JPY level are around The Economist s Big Mac index shows the Yen to be undervalued compared to the USD 24. Also while there are several groups who benefit from the weaker Yen (such as large exporters and the tourism industry) more numerous groups of Japanese, such as most SMEs and domestic consumers, do not do so well. The government is no longer calling for a lower currency and very importantly the world s currency speculators are heavily committed to positions which will benefit from a rising US dollar against most other G7 currencies. We therefore have taken off the Yen hedge which we had held for several years in those accounts which allow for currency hedging. The Japanese economy has been moribund since the end of the excesses of the late 1980s. But two and a half decades is a long time for those excesses to move through the system. The valuation point from which we are starting in terms of the equities and the underlying properties which they control is highly attractive. We do not need the Japanese economy to boom for the theme to work. The underlying dynamics of attractive rents, low vacancies and high positive carry mean that even a low level of economic growth will allow these holdings to flourish. Predicting the exact timing of cherry blossom season in Japan each year is an art. The economic conditions in the Tokyo office market mean that now the blossoming has begun it should be long lived and healthy. TAUBE HODSON STONEX PARTNERS LLP MARCH 2015 THS THOUGHT PIECE 09

10 1 Daiwa, Vacancy rate data as at 5 February Goldman Sachs, Tokyo correspondence, 3 February Bloomberg Data, as at 26 January 2015, covering Q to January Goldman Sachs, Tokyo correspondence, 3 February Bloomberg Data, as at 26 January Management meeting, Mitsubishi Estate, 16 September CBRE Global Research and Consulting, Q Management meeting, Mitsubishi Estate, 16 September Management meeting, Mitsubishi Estate, 16 September Management meeting, Mitsubishi Estate, 16 September Wall Street Journal, October Mitsubishi Estate 2014 annual report 13 Goldman Sachs, Tokyo correspondence, 20 January Bloomberg Data, as at 26 January Miki Shoji, Tokyo (5 Central Wards) Office Building Market Research Reports, January CBRE research, Japan Market Overview and Outlook, December Miki Shoji, Tokyo (5 Central Wards) Office Building Market Research Reports, January Management meeting, Tokyu Fudosan, 3 December CBRE research, Japan Market Overview and Outlook, December Nomura, Tokyo correspondence, 9 February Goldman Sachs, Tokyo correspondence, 20 January Bloomberg Data, as at 26 January Bloomberg Data, as at 26 January THS THOUGHT PIECE 10

11 Information This report was prepared exclusively for the benefit and use of the intended recipient and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure other than to the aforementioned and should not be used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of the Manager. Reference in this document to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities but is included for illustration purposes only. It should also be noted that the views expressed may no longer be current and may already have been acted upon by the Manager. Unless otherwise stated, all data is sourced from the Manager s own research. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and the figures and returns in this report are purely to illustrate the author s points. The value of investments can go down as well as up and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Investments in a currency other than an investor s own currency will be subject to movements in foreign exchange rates. The ideas and conclusions in this report are for general interest only and are not intended to provide advice of any kind and should not be used as the basis of any investment decision, nor should they be treated as a recommendation for any investment. In preparing this report, we may have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources or which was provided to us by related parties. No warranty or representation is given to this effect and no responsibility can be accepted by the Manager, to any intermediaries or end users for any action taken on the basis of the information. Issued by Taube Hodson Stonex Partners LLP, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered address: Cassini House, 1st Floor, St. James s Street, London, SW1A 1LD. THS THOUGHT PIECE 11

12 Taube Hodson Stonex Partners LLP 1st Floor, Cassini House 57-59, St James s Street London SW1A 1LD United Kingdom T: E: [email protected] W: