Inequality by Demographic Factors
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1 Inequality by Demographic Factors Findings from Individual-Level Cantonal Tax Data The Evolution of Economic and Social Inequalities in Switzerland (and Beyond): International Conference, Switzerland Oliver Hümbelin und Rudolf Farys
2 Introduction Income inequality is often understood as a result of an unequal market outcome (economic factors e.g. wages), which is more or less moderated by redistribution (institutional factor e.g. tax system ). But research on the role of demographic factors is gaining attention. (1) Von Weizsäcker (1996) argues that ageing of society affects income inequality. It potentially increases when inequality among retired is higher than among workforce (Grabka and Kuhn, 2012). (2) Change in the «way of people living together» affects inequality. People marry later and divorce more often, which results in an increase of single-earner-hh and therefore increases income inequality (Peichl et. al, 2011; Daly and Valetta, 2006). Research Question: Is Income inequality affected by demographic change, when looking at age groups and household types?
3 Data Statistical «case studies» with individual cantonal Tax Data Individual cantonal Tax Data which are collected as part of the SNF-Project ( Tax data is administrative data, which means it s a process generated, nonreactive data source (Diekman 2009:653) Nice, because data coverage is good (full sample, no sample bias) Basel-City Urban canton German speaking Time period: Income measure: Net income (Reineinkommen) + Income from labor + Income from property + Direct social transfers - Deductions, but no social deductions
4 Rise in overall inequality in Basel-City Is rise of inequality affected by demographic factors? Changes are possible due to (a) Changing shares (e.g. poor group got bigger) (b) Groups diverge (mean of subgroups differ stronger) (c) Changing within subgroup inequality (e.g. something non demographic happened)
5 Method Decomposing Overall inequality into within and between group components (Hao & Naiman 2010) Theil-Index, an inequality measure developed from information theory (General Entropy class), is additively decomposable (Gini is not). Theil can be expressed as the between-group inequality plus the weighted sum of the inequality within each group T ; ) Population-weights ;,,, ; ) within between By decomposing the Theil-Index we partitioned the total income inequality into between-group inequality (e.g. between age groups and household types) and within-group inequality. Hence we see, how the differences between and within each group contribute to overall inequality
6 Age groups - Share of age groups and change over time Three age groups -25: young adults (education is important) 26 65: working population (wages) 65>: Retired (pensions) Agegroup Population Shares Change ( PP) (share) (share)
7 Age groups - Between and within group inequality On average young adults lost, while workforce and especially retired gained But: Inequality within workforce and among young adults increased
8 Age groups - Contribution of within and between inequality to overall inequality Agegroup Contribution to overall inequality Between-group Overall Theil Inequality among Workforce (26-65) contributes most to overall inequality (big group) and relevance of inequality within this age group did rise. Small increase of between-group component is because young adults lost relatively
9 Households - Share of Household types and change over time Global trend is reflected in cantonal data: decline of married and rise of single households Household Population shares 1991 (share) 2011 (share) Change ( PP) Married w. kids Married no kids Single mom Single dad Single man Single woman
10 Households- Between and within inequality Between group differences are high between married and single married HH gained more on average But: Between group Inequality reaches a maximum at a singleshare of 63%
11 Households - Contribution of within and between inequality to overall inequality Married HH gained more on average (pronunciation of between group differences) But: Between group Inequality reaches a maximum at a singleshare of 63% Inequality increase within all subgroups is the main driver Household Basel-City Married w. kids Married no kids Single mom Single dad Single man Single woman Between group Overall Theil
12 Counterfactual Distribution How would inequality look like, if demographic structure wouldn't have changed? Method Weighting of 2011 distribution with 1991 weights calculated with inverse probability weighting Result Inequality would be smaller 19% of rise of inequality is due to change in demographic variables (age, household)
13 Conclusion Von Weizsäcker (1996) assumes that ageing of society leads to higher income inequality Indeed, people within workforce and retired gained on average, while young adults lost (groups diverge). Overall inequality is strongly affected (61%) by inequality within workforce (25-65). Inequality among retired is highest. Ageing of society is associated with increase of inequality? Rise in inequality in the US due to more people living alone (Daly/Valetta (2006) People indeed live less and less in married households Contribution of within single inequality and importance of between component to overall inequality did rise does a single equal a single household? Further analyses with Bern data
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