July 2012 (1) States With Negative Growth 22 States With Positive Growth 25

Transcription

1 Respondent Coverage: 100% July 2012 Current Month Current Month New England 9.5% Connecticut -3.3% Maine 3.6% Massachusetts 24.1% New Hampshire -0.1% Rhode Island 13.3% Vermont -0.3% Middle Atlantic -3.5% New Jersey -12.7% New York 2.4% Pennsylvania -5.2% South Atlantic 4.5% Delaware -14.6% Florida 17.3% Georgia -0.3% Maryland -5.7% North Carolina -10.9% South Carolina 18.0% Virginia 6.7% West Virginia -4.7% East North Central -7.1% Illinois -6.3% Indiana 13.2% Michigan -11.5% Ohio -3.0% Wisconsin -5.2% East South Central 2.3% Alabama 11.7% Kentucky -2.3% Mississippi -8.8% Tennessee 5.2% West North Central 16.0% Iowa 7.3% Kansas 23.4% Minnesota 39.7% Missouri -4.3% Nebraska 11.2% North Dakota 28.0% South Dakota 25.3% West South Central 6.0% Arkansas -5.7% Louisiana -2.5% Oklahoma 9.9% Texas 7.7% Mountain 8.8% Arizona 7.2% Colorado 7.0% Idaho -0.5% Montana -4.8% Nevada 22.6% New Mexico 24.6% Utah 3.5% Wyoming 16.9% Pacific 11.8% California 16.5% Oregon -5.6% Washington -5.4% Current Month U.S. Total 4.9% States With Negative Growth 22 States With Positive Growth 25 Data withheld due to disclosure restrictions but included in District and U.S. totals. Implied YTD estimates are calculated by appending PCA member data for the current month to actual U.S.G.S data if available for the previous months in the year and comparing against the same YTD period of the previous year. If U.S.G.S. data is delayed, two previous months will be estimated and noted. Association assumes no legal responsibility for the outcome of decisions or commitments made on the basis of this information Portland Cement 1 Association

2 Weather can have a significant impact on cement/concrete consumption and can temporarily distort sales trends. The following National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) precipitation maps may provide some regional and state-by-state insight into monthly and year-to-date trend distortions in consumption activity caused by weather anomalies. Extreme weather such as tornadoes and hurricanes are not neccassarily included in these maps and could indicate a much larger impact on cement consumption in their occurance. July 2012 Statewide Ranks National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA July 2012 Percent Difference From Average National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA 2

3 July 2012 Implied Year-to-Date New England 19.2% Connecticut 12.5% Maine 10.1% Massachusetts 28.2% New Hampshire 15.4% Rhode Island 3.5% Vermont 24.4% Middle Atlantic 12.1% New Jersey 12.3% New York 18.2% Pennsylvania 6.7% South Atlantic 8.9% Delaware -24.6% Florida 9.7% Georgia 8.7% Maryland 6.8% North Carolina 1.5% South Carolina 5.4% Virginia 17.5% West Virginia 16.8% East North Central 17.5% Illinois 12.5% Indiana 28.9% Michigan 17.3% Ohio 18.7% Wisconsin 12.4% East South Central 8.6% Alabama 5.7% Kentucky 13.4% Mississippi -5.7% Tennessee 16.8% Implied Year-to-Date West North Central 28.2% Iowa 25.6% Kansas 34.3% Minnesota 38.0% Missouri 10.4% Nebraska 16.9% North Dakota 86.3% South Dakota 21.7% West South Central 12.3% Arkansas 12.2% Louisiana -17.6% Oklahoma 12.1% Texas 19.7% Mountain 14.1% Arizona 9.5% Colorado 16.1% Idaho -10.5% Montana 22.9% Nevada 24.9% New Mexico 10.0% Utah 19.5% Wyoming 9.6% Pacific 8.8% California 13.3% Oregon -18.0% Washington 1.3% Implied Year-to-Date U.S. Total 13.3% States W ith Negative Grow th 5 States With Positive Growth 43 Data withheld due to disclosure restrictions but included in District and U.S. totals. Implied YTD estimates are calculated by appending PCA member data for the current month to actual U.S.G.S data if available for the previous months in the year and comparing against the same YTD period of the previous year. If U.S.G.S. data is delayed, two previous months will be estimated and noted. Association assumes no legal responsibility for the outcome of decisions 3 or commitments made on the basis of this information Portland Cement Association

4 Weather can have a significant impact on cement/concrete consumption and can temporarily distort sales trends. The following National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) precipitation maps may provide some regional and state-by-state insight into monthly and year-to-date trend distortions in consumption activity caused by weather anomalies. Extreme weather such as tornadoes and hurricanes are not neccassarily included in these maps and could indicate a much larger impact on cement consumption in their occurance. January-July 2012 Statewide Ranks National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA Precipitation 4

5 July June 2012 New England Connecticut 98.8% Maine 99.8% Massachusetts 99.9% New Hampshire 100.0% Rhode Island 100.0% Vermont 99.9% Middle Atlantic New Jersey 99.4% New York 98.4% Pennsylvania 96.7% South Atlantic Delaware 97.6% Florida 92.8% Georgia 90.3% Maryland 99.4% North Carolina 91.6% South Carolina 91.0% Virginia 99.0% West Virginia 97.8% East North Central Illinois 97.8% Indiana 98.7% Michigan 92.8% Ohio 99.6% Wisconsin 99.3% East South Central Alabama 96.4% Kentucky 97.1% Mississippi 96.9% Tennessee 98.7% West North Central Iowa 98.4% Kansas 98.8% Minnesota 95.5% Missouri 99.6% Nebraska 98.6% North Dakota 99.7% South Dakota 97.2% West South Central Arkansas 99.4% Louisiana 97.1% Oklahoma 99.0% Texas 96.2% Mountain Arizona 92.7% Colorado 96.0% Idaho 99.1% Montana 100.0% Nevada 91.3% New Mexico 95.0% Utah 98.6% Wyoming 92.2% Pacific California 95.0% Oregon 99.6% Washington 99.4% U.S. Total 99.0% Data withheld due to disclosure restrictions but included in U.S. total. Historical accuracy rating is based on an average absolute differences in percentage growth between data reported by the U.S.G.S and estimates generated by PCA using the methodology described previously. A 99% accuracy rating, for example, indicates that recent estimates using the PCA methodology were incorrect by an average plus or minus one percent swing in percentage growth rates. The accuracy rating is based on a 12 month rolling average of historical data. Association assumes no legal responsibility for the outcome of decisions or commitments made on the basis of this information Portland 5Cement Association

6 July June 2012 New England Connecticut 100.0% Maine 100.0% Massachusetts 100.0% New Hampshire 100.0% Rhode Island 100.0% Vermont 100.0% Middle Atlantic New Jersey 100.0% New York 100.0% Pennsylvania 100.0% South Atlantic Delaware 91.7% Florida 66.7% Georgia 75.0% Maryland 100.0% North Carolina 66.7% South Carolina 66.7% Virginia 100.0% West Virginia 100.0% East North Central Illinois 91.7% Indiana 91.7% Michigan 83.3% Ohio 100.0% Wisconsin 100.0% East South Central Alabama 100.0% Kentucky 91.7% Mississippi 91.7% Tennessee 83.3% West North Central Iowa 100.0% Kansas 100.0% Minnesota 100.0% Missouri 100.0% Nebraska 100.0% North Dakota 100.0% South Dakota 91.7% West South Central Arkansas 100.0% Louisiana 100.0% Oklahoma 91.7% Texas 91.7% Mountain Arizona 83.3% Colorado 100.0% Idaho 100.0% Montana 100.0% Nevada 91.7% New Mexico 91.7% Utah 100.0% Wyoming 66.7% Pacific California 91.7% Oregon 100.0% Washington 100.0% U.S. Total 100.0% Data withheld due to disclosure restrictions but included in U.S. total. Directional accuracy determines how accurate PCA member data correctly matches the directional movement to monthly U.S.G.S. actuals on a percent change basis only. A 90% accuracy rating, for example, means that PCA member data correctly indicated the direction of change (either negative or positive) as later reported by U.S.G.S. in 9 out of 10 instances. The accuracy rating is based on an analysis of the monthly direction of change for the most recent 12 months for which U.S.G.S. has reported data. Association assumes no legal responsibility for the outcome of decisions or commitments made on the basis of this information Portland 6Cement Association

7 Explanatory Notes Current Month Growth Rates These estimates provide a preliminary view of state and district monthly cement consumption trends, pending confirmation of those trends by the U.S. Geological Survey. Estimates are based upon shipments by destination data which PCA member companies normally submit both to PCA and to the U.S. Geological Survey. Where PCA has not received data from a member company as of the publication date, that company s shipments are excluded from these estimates. These estimates are also adjusted to account for changes in PCA reporting membership. Estimates are reported in such a manner as to protect the confidentiality of individual company data, which is maintained by PCA in the strictest confidence. Implied Year-to-Date Growth Rates These estimates provide a preliminary view of YTD data on a state and district basis. Implied YTD estimates are calculated by appending PCA member data for the current month onto actual U.S.G.S. data, for the previous months in the year. If U.S.G.S. data is delayed, two previous months will be estimated and noted. These estimates provide an indication of the risks associated with using PCA s preliminary data. Historical accuracy rating is based on an average of absolute differences in percent growth between data reported by the U.S.G.S. and estimates generated by PCA using the methodology described previously. A 99% accuracy rating, for example, indicates that recent estimates using the PCA methodology were incorrect by an average plus or minus one percent swing in percentage growth rates. The accuracy rating is based on a 12 month rolling average of historical data. Directional accuracy determines how accurate PCA member data correctly matches the directional movement to monthly U.S.G.S. actuals on a percent change basis only. A 90% accuracy rating, for example, means that PCA member data correctly indicated the direction of change (either negative or positive) as later reported by U.S.G.S. in 9 out of 10 instances. The accuracy rating is based on an analysis of the monthly direction of change for the most recent 12 months for which U.S.G.S. has reported data. The accuracy of the estimates presented in this report cannot be guaranteed. Coverage may be incomplete and revisions may occur. Portland Cement Association assumes no legal responsibility for the outcome of decisions or commitments made on the basis of this information. 7