Sport-Großereignisse und Tourismus

Transcription

1 Sport-Großereignisse und Tourismus Wolfgang Maennig Universität Hamburg INTERNATIONALE TOURISMUSBÖRSE BERLIN 5. MÄRZ 2015

2 Touristic effects of Mega Sport Events: Usually very optimistic forecasts Germany 2006: Postbank 1 mio. foreign tourists Spending 850 mio. GDP +0,3% German Federation of Hotels 3,2 mio. foreign tourists 5 mio. additional hotel beds to be sold Each tourist to spend per day 3,4 bn. additional income South Africa 2014: Grant Thornton, overseas tourists (each watching 4 matches), staying 15 days african tourists (3 matches), staying 15 days 32 teams, international media, international VIPs, 500 FIFA officials Grant Thornton, overseas tourists

3 Brazil forecast form 2010: 2.98 million additional visitors, Source:Ernst & Young (2010)

4 Olympic Games 2012, London: - loss of ca 350 thousand overnight stays in III/12 - longterm? 5,0 Besucher (in Mio.) in London pro Quartal 4,5 4,0 3,5 Besucher Gleitender Durchschnitt 3,0 2,5 5 Olympische Spiele Anzahl der Übernachtungen in Mio. in London pro Quartal

5 Mega sport events and tourism: The Case of London 2012 run-aways Source: april, 26th, 2013

6 Mega sport events and tourism: The Case of London 2012 Source: Office for National Statistics, Statistical Bulletin, October 11th, 2012

7 Mega sport events and tourism: The Case of London 2012 Source: april, 26th, 2013

8 140 World Cup South Africa 2010: Number of flights from international destinations at South African international airports April 12 th August 2 nd, J Burg International Capetown International Durban International Data Source: daily observations Taken from Du Plessis und Maennig (2011) 8

9 Seat capacity of international air arrivals to South Africa, 12 April 2 August seat capacity max seat cap typical : (daily observations), vom Taken from: Du Plessis und Maennig (2011) 9

10 South Africa: Additional overnight stays (national and international tourists) booked rooms June 2009, daily average booked rooms June 2010, daily average booked rooms, difference June booked hotel rooms additional hotel guests additional guests in B&B sum Taken from: Du Plessis und Maennig (2011) 10

11 16 Anzahl der Ankünfte von Nicht-Inländern in South Africa pro Monat ( ) Fußball WM Du Plessis and Maennig (2011): ca additional foreign tourists - Matheson and Szymanski (2012): ca additional foreign tourists - FOURIE AND SANTANA-GALLEGO (2015): Random results of play-off games affect extent of benefits of host country. Little effect on country s traditional partners, but tourism from Latin American countries. Hope for qualification of big, non-traditional countries!

12 90 Arrivals, Departures China pro Jahr Arrivals Departures Olympische Spiele

13 WM 2006 Deutschland 4,0 Ankünfte pro Monat in Mio.; Deutschland; Originaldaten und Saisonbereinigt 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 Fußball WM , Allmers and Maennig (2007): additional arrivals by non-residents

14 Soccer WC 2006: Hotel Prices Differences to June nov 3rd, 2006

15 The World Cup 2006 and sectoral employment in Germany Wholesale Trade.2 Communications Engineering.1 Construction Treatment Effect on log(employment) 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 Time Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 Time Treatment Effect on log(employment) Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 Time Retail Trade Treatment Effect on log(employment) Hospitality Treatment Effect on log(employment) Land Transportation Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 Time Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 Time Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 Time Culture, Sports, and Entertainment Publishing Treatment Effect on log(employment) Source: Feddersen and Maennig (2012) Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 Time Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 Time 15

16 The World Cup 2006 and employment in hospitality Q2/ 2006: jobs in German hospitality = +0,005% of German employment Source: Feddersen and Maennig (2012)

17 Merchant sales Germany, / Merchant sales (MS) MS, seasonally adj. 1997M M M M M M M M M M M M03 Remark: Real sales, without petrol stations and car sales, 2003=100. Data Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Lange Reihen Binnenhandel, Gastgewerbe, Tourismus Source: Du Plessis/ Maennig (2006)

18 Übernachtungen (saisonbereinigt) Ex-post evidence of economic benefits Time-Switching (the case of Portugal 2004) J F M A M J J A S O N D Quelle: Allmers und Maennig (2008); Allmers und Maennig (2009) 18

19 Lowest flight prices for alternative flight dates The case of Frankfurt J burg 1.040,00 940,00 840,00 740,00 640,00 540,00 440, ,00 Data source: daily observations Taken from: Du Plessis und Maennig (2011) 19

20 Brazil 2014: Hotel Price in Host Cities World Cup period vs other periods Double Room Category 1 star 2 stars 3 stars 4 stars 5 stars Low season High season Source: Data colected at between 5. and 7. nov (Average of all world cup cities) 20

21 World Cup 2014 Packages: The case of Germany Including flights, transfers, hotel, excursions, welcome dinner, party etc. Without Tickets 12. Jun 13. Jun 14. Jun 15. Jun 16. Jun 17. Jun 18. Jun 19. Jun 20. Jun 21. Jun 22. Jun 23. Jun 24. Jun 25. Jun 26. Jun 27. Jun 28. Jun 29. Jun 30. Jun 01. Jul 02. Jul 03. Jul 04. Jul 05. Jul 06. Jul 07. Jul 08. Jul 09. Jul 10. Jul 11. Jul 12. Jul 13. Jul 14. Jul 15. Jul 4*-Hotel 4*-EZ 3*-Hotel 3*-EZ Travel Package 1 7 days 4.140,00 995, ,00 555,00 Travel Package 2 11 days 5.770, , ,00 985,00 Travel Package 3 15 days 6.960, , , ,00 Travel Package 4 20 days 8.980, , , ,00 Travel Package 5 24 days , , , ,00 Travel Package 6 32 days , , , ,00 Travel Package 7 6 days 3.730,00 775, ,00 445,00 Travel Package 8 10 days 4.990, , ,00 835,00 Travel Package 9 15 days 7.270, , , ,00 Travel Package days 9.280, , , ,00 Travel Package days , , , ,00 Travel Package 12 6 days 3.770,00 665, ,00 395,00 Travel Package days 5.870, , ,00 895,00 Travel Package days 7.790, , , ,00 Travel Package days , , , ,00 Travel Package 16 9 days 4.270, , ,00 775,00 Travel Package days 6.960, , , ,00 Travel Package days , , , ,00 Travel Package 19 6 days 4.990, , ,00 695,00 Travel Package days , , , ,00 Travel Package days 7.950, , , ,00 Travel Package 22 6 days 7.270, , , ,

22 Summarizing runaways Couch-potatoe-effect time-switching crowding-out of normal tourism: esp. if event in high-season, and traditional touristic places shift events to off-season, non-traditional sites Price crowding out: economic impact studies and selfdefeating effects Be careful with economic impact studies! Scope for second-tier events?