Fundación México Estados Unidos para la Ciencia The United States Mexico Foundation for Science

Transcription

1 Final Report Project: Global Climate Change: Mexico National Greenhouse Gases Inventory Improvement Consultant: S.M. Juan Carlos Arredondo Brun July 2005

2 Acronyms CFE Comision Federal de Electridad (Federal Electricity Commission) CNA National Waters Commission (Comision Nacional del Agua) CoP Conference of the Parties FUMEC GHG Greenhouse Gases GIRESOL Integrated Management of Solid Waste (Gestion Integral de Residuos Solidos) INE National Institute of Ecology INEGI National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Informatics IPCC Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change LFC Luz y Fuerza del Centro LULUCF Land Use, Land use Change and Forestry PEMEX Petroleos Mexicanos QA Quality Assurance QC Quality Control SEDESOL National Ministry of Social Development SEMARNAT National Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources SENER National Ministry of Energy UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change USGS United States Geological Survey - 2 -

3 Executive Summary Fundación México Estados Unidos para la Ciencia The present report summarizes the objectives, activities, and results accomplished by the signing consultant responsible for the activities and procedures of Quality Assurance and Quality Control in the Global Climate Change: Mexico National Greenhouse Gases Inventory Improvement project. As Coordinator of Quality Assurance and Quality Control of the Inventory, the consultant was responsible for: Resolving the existing differences between the current and an optimal way for information collection and data gathering for the Inventory; Coordinating the information flow from governmental and non-governmental information sources to the researchers in charge of estimating GHG emissions. Designing the QA/QC procedures to be followed in the Inventory update. The Final Report is structured in three main sections: a first section describing the project objectives and the activities performed towards their accomplishment; a second section describing the products generated as part of the project and that will be used by the INE as reference in the development of future GHG emissions inventories; and a third section that includes the project results and the impact of the project in the Mexico s 2002 GHG Emissions Inventory

4 Preface The United Sates Mexico Foundation for Science (FUMEC) was created in 1992 as a bi-national non-governmental body to promote and support science and technology collaboration between Mexico and the United States of America (FUMEC 2003) 1. The Foundation manages three well established programs: 1) Environment and Health, 2) Industrial Sustainable Development, and 3) Enhancement of Human Resources in Science and Technology. One of the strategic topics within the Environment and Health Program refers to Global Climate Change. Climate change is considered by FUMEC as one of the most important and complex challenges of this century (FUMEC 2003). With sponsorship from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the partnership with the National Institute of Ecology, FUMEC is facilitating the Mexico s National Greenhouse Gases Inventory Improvement project. The project objectives are to update Mexico s national greenhouse gases emission inventory to the year 2002 using the Revised IPCC 1996 Guidelines and the 2000 Good Practice Guidelines, and to include an executive summary of the updated National Greenhouse Gases Emission Inventory in Mexico s Third National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. A number of consultants were screened and hired for this project. Each consultant participates under INE s supervision in one of the following tasks: estimate greenhouse gases emissions for a specific inventory category, coordinate quality control and quality assessment efforts, or coordinate scientific and technical performance of the inventory. 1 The United States Mexico Foundation for Science. Bi-Annual Activities Report Page

5 Table of Contents Fundación México Estados Unidos para la Ciencia ACRONYMS...2 PREFACE...4 BACKGROUND...6 OBJECTIVES...7 ACTIVITIES...7 PRODUCTS...10 The Mexico GHG Inventory Update Program...10 RESULTS...33 CONCLUSIONS...46 BIBLIOGRAPHY

6 Background Mexico is a Party to the UNFCCC as a Non-Annex I country. As such, Mexico is invited to develop a GHG Emission Inventory at the national level, where all the relevant emission sectors, as classified by the IPCC, are included. Mexico has prepared two GHG emission inventories: the first in 1995, using the 1990 IPCC Guidelines for GHG Emission Inventories, and the second in 1998, using the 1996 Revised Guidelines for GHG Emission Inventories. In the year 2000, an update to the 1998 inventory was produced, but only few sectors were included. By 2005, the INE established as a goal to develop a updated and improved GHG emission inventory covering more emission sources and incorporating scientific coordination and QA/QC activities. The INEGEI 2002 will be published in the year 2006 and an Executive Summary will be presented in late

7 Objectives Fundación México Estados Unidos para la Ciencia The Global Climate Change: Mexico National Greenhouse Gases Inventory Improvement project has three main objectives for the QA/QC Coordinator: Resolve the existing differences between the current and an optimal way for information collection and data gathering for the Inventory; Coordinate the information flow from governmental and non-governmental information sources to the researchers in charge of estimating GHG emissions. Design the QA/QC procedures to be followed in the Inventory update. Activities A strategy incorporating three working lines was set up at the beginning of the project and all the activities conducted were associated with one or more working lines. The working lines were: 1. Analyze the inventory status.- The analysis was considered in an effort to learn about information collection processes as followed in the previous GHG emissions inventories. The objective to achieve was resolving the information collection deficiencies. The analysis focused on reviewing the overall results of the information collection processes, as executed, compared to the quality attributes of the two previous GHG emission inventories. A couple of questions guided the analysis: a. Does the collection processes (as-is) increased or limited the number of emission sources considered in the inventory? b. Where are the collection deficiencies: In the way the information is requested or collected, or in the number and type of information sources considered and used? 2. Identify inventory best-practices.- the objective to achieve under this strategy was the coordination of information flow. The coordination of information flow was conceived as a cycle that begins with the identification of information needs and information sources, to - 7 -

8 data processing of the emission estimates. Knowing about best-practices on GHG emissions inventories development could give light about different ways and measures used or followed to coordinate information flow. As a second step, the strategy focused on working closely with all the Source Category Coordinators, the INE staff, and the information providers, as well as following up all the information requests. Simultaneously, another step was to identify and gather a significant amount of relevant information that could assist the Source Category Coordinators in their work. 3. Identify QA/QC best-practices.- the development of a set of QA/QC procedures needed a solid base and a sound approach considering the lack of them in previous inventories. An obvious first step was to identify the way and form in which other countries, including Annex I and Non-Annex I parties to the UNFCCC, conducted quality control and quality assurance activities. Literature on quality control, quality of information, and GHG emission inventories as well as relevant decisions taken to date by the CoP was used as reference. Internationally accepted standards on quality management and quality control were also used as reference. All these sources provided the fundamentals of what a quality plan and the QA/QC procedures had to contain and which topics had to be covered. The activities described in the monthly reports provide more details about the day-to-day operation. Figure 1 provides, in a schematic way, an overall view of the strategies, the project objectives, and the activities performed during the project; the diagram also includes (in blue) the products or deliverables developed as part of the project activities. All the activities of the QA/QC Coordinator and the Scientific Coordinator were complementary between each other. A working session took place once a week, for as long as 6 hours, where the objectives, the products, the strategies were discussed between the consultants and the Inventory Coordinator. It was always important to keep a tight working relationship in order to avoid any misunderstandings with the Source Category Coordinators and to achieve a successful completion of the project for both, the consultants and the INE

9 Figure 1: Diagram of the Project activities - 9 -

10 Products An overall framework was created to embrace al the products developed during the project. The framework was named as the Mexico GHG Inventory Update Program. The idea of creating a framework and assigning a name to it was to demonstrate to the INE and the Inventory Coordinator (as main client) all the number and type of documents that were needed to actually improve the inventory. Most of the documents included in the framework are tools that allow the INE to organize, structure, and follow up the development of a GHG emissions inventory. The framework is intended as a toolbox that know contains to types of products: the documents acting as templates to be used in future inventories and as working documents, filled down as part of the 2002 GHG emission inventory. All the documents were produced either on Microsoft Word, Excel or Power Point. The Mexico GHG Inventory Update Program The Mexico GHG Inventory Update Program comprises the following documents: An Inventory Working Plan (a Gantt diagram of the project activities) A Kick-off presentation An Information needs questionnaire A National Common Reporting Framework o A Source category report template o The IPCC tables (worksheets from the IPCC software) o The emissions report spreadsheets An Inventory Organizational Structure A Quality Plan o The Quality Plan o The QC review forms

11 A description of each product is presented below 2. Working Plan The working plan (Figure 2) summarized the activities to be followed during the inventory update in The plan is divided in 5 stages: Kick-off, Development, Compilation, Inform preparation, and Review and Publication. A description of each stage is provided below. Kick-off: This stage begins with a call for a kick-off meeting; during the meeting, the INE provides to the consultants or the personnel responsible for emission estimations, electronic copies of the annual working plan, the worksheets to be used for estimation and report, and the IPCC Guidelines to be followed. The material to be delivered shall be prepared before the meeting. Development: This stage begins with data collection and information retrieval for each category and emission source of the inventory. Each consultant should carefully review the IPCC guidelines and the methodologies to be followed; register all data and information collected; estimate emissions for corresponding category or emission source; update or generate the inventory report; follow the QA/QC procedures; and deliver the emission estimates and the report to the INE. Compilation: In this stage the INE receives and integrates all the worksheets and reports prepared by each consultant; checks for quality compliance; aggregates the results; prepares the documents for expert review; analyzes the trends in emissions; identifies the key categories; and estimates uncertainties. Report preparation: In this stage the INE collects and integrates all the texts from each category or source report; reviews and develops the complete Inventory Report; prepares the Introduction and 2 Taken from: Arredondo, J. (2005). Monthly Progress Report. FUMEC. January, The report was prepared for FUMEC as part of the Global Climate Change: Mexico National Greenhouse Gases Inventory Improvement project

12 Executive Summary sections; incorporates the results obtained from quality, key sources, and uncertainty analysis; and sends the Inventory Report for external review. Review and Publication: In this stage the INE organizes public consultation events and presents the Inventory report for review and comments; incorporates any additional comments received and prepares the document for publication

13 Figure 2: Working Plan, as used during the 2005 GHG Emissions Inventory development

14 Kick-off presentation The kick-off presentation explains the process and working plan to be followed during the inventory update. The presentation addresses issues regarding the present situation of previous inventories, the desired situation for the Mexico inventory development process, the definitions of the quality attributes, the definitions of Quality Assurance and Quality Control, the working plan, the roles and responsibilities in the inventory update process, the organizational structure around the inventory development process, and the guidelines to be used as reference. The kick-off presentation is to be used in the kick-off meeting of the inventory. Information Needs Questionnaire For previous inventories, a significant amount of time was devoted by consultants to obtain the data and information required for emission estimations. In order to speed up this process, a questionnaire (Figure 3) is included in the Program as a supporting tool for the inventory development. The questionnaire collects the information needs from each Source Category Coordinator. The questions to be answered included general data (name, phone, address), participation in previous inventories (yes/no, source category and years), participation in current year s inventory and information needs for the inventory update (information source, institution, access to the source, and required support). This questionnaire has to be handed and returned answered during the kick-off meeting. Based on the information provided, the INE shall assist each consultant on obtaining the data. Once they are answered, all the questionnaires shall be electronically kept. Although the information needs may slightly vary over the development of the inventory, the answers provided constitute a baseline on information needs

15 Figure 3: Example of answered Information needs Questionnaire

16 National Common Reporting Framework The National Common Reporting Framework is based on the Common Reporting Framework used by Annex I countries for reporting and submitting their national inventories to the UNFCCC. Essentially, the National Common Reporting Framework consists in a MS-Word template to be used by Source Category Coordinators in their report, the use of the IPCC Greenhouse Gas Inventory Software tables for emission estimations, and the use of an emission estimations reporting template. The purpose of the Word template is to standardize the way in which each Source category Coordinator reports their estimations, analysis and conclusions to the Data Management and Documentation Coordinator. The emissions report file has three spreadsheets to be filled by the Source Category Coordinator and nine spreadsheets that present the results as summaries of emissions per year in CO 2 equivalent, emissions per source, and emissions trend per GHG (for all the time frame). Figure 4: Emissions report summary table (extract). To be filled by the Source Category Coordinator

17 Figure 5: Report on methods used (extract); to be filled by the Source Category Coordinator. Figure 6: Report on uncertainty estimates (extract); to be filled by the Source Category Coordinator. Figure 7: Summary of 1990-current year of emissions per source category in CO2 equivalent. Automatically updated

18 Figure 8: Current year emissions per source. Automatically updated. Figure 9: Summary of current year emissions per source (extract). Automatically updated

19 Figure 10: Summary of current year emissions, in CO2 equivalent. Automatically updated Figure 11: Emissions trend; one table was prepared per GHG. Automatically updated. Figure 12: Summary of emissions trends per source

20 Organizational structure The organizational structure is designed to fully support the inventory development process. Five roles were defined: Inventory Coordinator (General Coordinator), Data Management and Documentation Coordinator, Source Category Coordinator, QA/QC Coordinator, and Uncertainty Analysis Coordinator. Each role has a set of defined and complementary responsibilities, as described below: Inventory Coordinator: Responsible for all the aspects of the inventory, including supervising the performance of each Source Category Coordinator, the uncertainty analysis, the inventory report and the successful completion of each stage of the working plan; the Inventory Coordinator also acts as liaison with other governmental agencies. Data Management and Documentation Coordinator: Responsible for coordinating the preparation of the inventory estimates and the report; in charge of reviewing, selecting and recommending methodologies to be applied for emission estimations; integrating the category worksheets into an aggregated one, preparing the inventory report and archiving all the files and documents. Source Category Coordinator: Responsible for obtaining and collecting all the data required for emission estimations, preparing GHG emission estimates for assigned category, documenting, developing and preparing text of the inventory, providing data and information for uncertainty analysis, and applying Quality Control and Quality Assurance procedures as indicated. QA/QC Coordinator: Responsible for developing, checking and overseeing the conformance with quality procedures; emitting recommendations on quality issues during emission estimation process;

21 coordinating corrective actions derived from quality flaws; and for calling experts, arranging meetings and preparing documents for expert review of the inventory. Uncertainty analysis Coordinator: Responsible for estimating and analyzing estimates uncertainty; identifying and analyzing key sources; and developing uncertainty chapter of the Inventory Report. Figure 13: Inventory Organizational Structure Quality Plan The development and components of the Quality Plan incorporates all the quality attributes to be followed in the development of an emissions inventory, and provides guidance on details to be

22 taken care of during the process, in order to guarantee an exact, complete, transparent, comparable, and consistent inventory. The QC review forms file includes the following sections (one per worksheet): 1. Instructions: defines which type of activities is conducted by each member participating in the GHG Emissions Inventory. Six types of activities were included: [P] for preparation and update of the document; [A] for approval of the document; [R] for document review; [U] for use of the document as specified; [C] as the person acting as official contact for each; [G] for archiving of the document. Seven types of documents were included: the Inventory report template, the Methodological Aspects guideline; the Quality Plan (Plan Q), the IPCC worksheets, the emissions report worksheets (Reporte de Emisiones INEGEI), the Category report (Informe de categoria), and the National GHG Emissions Inventory Report (Infome Nacional del INEGEI). The instructions section also specified the date of last review and update of each of the seven documents

23 Figure 14: QC activities.- instructions on activity assignment 2. Category Report control list: specifies who is acting as Source Category Coordinator per each sector, the date of Category Report delivery to the INE, and a table where the Inventory Coordinator will capture if the Source Category Coordinator delivered electronic and hardcopy of the report, the report worksheets, the IPCC worksheets, and the uncertainty analysis

24 Figure 15: Category report control list 3. Exhaustiveness review form: allows the Inventory Coordinator and his QC review team to identify any gaps on the emissions of each sector to the most disaggregated level. The form covers all the emissions categories or sources for all the 6 sectors specified by the UNFCCC, and all the years from the base year (1990) up to the most recent year (2003)

25 Figure 16: QC review form: exhaustiveness review. 4. Tier 1 QC review form: used for a Tier 1 review of each sector, according to the quality attributes as defined: transparency, consistency, comparability, completeness, accuracy, and uncertainty. Each attribute was evaluated based on a set of questions analyzing specific characteristics or features desired or to be included in the report

26 Figure 17: QC general review form During the review, each question must be answered as Yes or No in order to identify if the Category report complies with the quality attributes; for each answer, comments or

27 recommendations can be made as corrective actions. If the report partially complies the question must be answered with a No, implying that the Source Category Coordinator has to fully review the report and modify or complete it for compliance with the quality attribute. 5. Tier 2 QC review: a set of questions evaluating each sector was developed as the way to analyze the quality of the report and its estimates. One worksheet per sector was prepared. Some examples of the worksheets are presented below. Given that there are no guidelines for sector 3 (solvents) no Tier 2 review form was developed; in the case of sector 5 (LULUCF) there is great uncertainty on how the emission sources were to be catalogued in Mexico (if following the IPCC emission categories, the FAO land use classification or another developed in Mexico), thus no Tier 2 review form was neither developed. Figure 18: Tier 2 QC review form. Sector 1: Energy

28 Figure 19: Tier 2 QC review form. Sector 2: Industrial processes

29 Figure 20: Tier 2 QC review form. Sector 4: Agriculture

30 Figure 21Tier 2 QC review form. Sector 6: waste Supporting the Program a list of relevant journals and articles was also generated and delivered as product. After classifying each journal and article per its relation with IPCC emission categories, separate list per emission category were created in an effort to simplify their finding in the file

31 Figure 22: List of relevant journals: journal name, publisher, IPCC category, subscription price for

32 Figure 23: List of relevant articles (partial list)

33 Results All the documents produced during the project were used as part of the INEGEI 2002 development. The best to demonstrate how the project objectives were achieved is to include the results of the QC review process applied to five of the six emission sectors. In all cases, the QC review forms were applied and discussed by the Inventory Coordinator, the QA/QC Coordinator and the Scientific Coordinator. A working session with each Source Category Coordinator took place later where the results of the review were discussed and where recommendations for the improvement of the report and the estimates should be considered. The quality attributes were always used as conceptual references during the discussions. The criterion used in the review was strict and two possible answers could be generated in the QC review forms: a compliance (YES) or a non-compliance (NO) answer. Whenever the Source Category Coordinator had fulfilled half-way, a non-compliance was determined for the corresponding issue under analysis. When a non-compliance occurred, a note with comments was included in the form that had to be discussed and considered by the Source Category Coordinator for improving his report. The results of each QC review process are shown below. It was determined that the QA activities were to be fulfilled by sending the reviewed and improved emission estimates and reports to the relevant Secretariats of the Federal Government. Their comments, if so existed, are to be considered in the development and publishing of the National Emission Inventory INEGEI

34 Figure 24: QC general review for sector 1A: Energy-fossil fuels combustion

35 Figure 25: Tier 2 QC review for sector 1A: Energy- fossil fuel combustion

36 Figure 26: QC general review for sector 1B: Energy-fugitive emissions

37 Figure 27: Tier 2 QC review for sector 1B: Energy-fugitive emissions

38 Figure 28: QC general review for sector 1A3: Energy-transport

39 Figure 29: Tier 2 QC review for sector 1A3: Energy-transport

40 Figure 30: QC general review for sector 2: Industrial processes

41 Figure 31: Tier 2 QC review for sector 2: Industrial processes

42 Figure 32: QC general review for sector 4: Agriculture

43 Figure 33: Tier 2 QC review for sector 4: Agriculture

44 Figure 34: QC general review for sector 6: Waste

45 Figure 35: Tier 2 QC review for sector 6: Waste

46 Conclusions The incorporation of scientific coordination and QA/QC activities gave a fresh breath to the development of Mexico s GHG Emission Inventory. During the project, a number of documents, organized under the title of Mexico GHG Emission Inventory Update Program acted as tools in the process of information gathering, emission estimation, and follow up, and all the way to the preparation of an Executive Summary of the INEGEI The Monthly Progress Reports delivered to the INE include the operational details of all the activities executed during the project while the final report presents an overview of what needs to be done, on a regular basis, for a more consistent, exact, comparable, transparent, and complete emissions inventory. QA/QC must not be considered as the application of a single procedure that guarantees the compliance of a quality attribute, but rather as a process that runs in parallel with the development of the new GHG emissions inventory. Although a first application of the QC procedures occurred, it was not possible to verify that the recommendations given to the Source Category Coordinators were actually incorporated as improvements in their reports. This remains as a pending task before the editing and publication of the Mexico s National GHG Emission Inventory (INEGEI 2002) in By the time this project was finished, the emission estimations from the LULUCF sector were still on progress; they are expected to be ready by mid It is recommended that the QC review activities are applied to the LULUCF results and report. Before doing that, it must be agreed the classification system used as emission sources and the correspondent QC review form must be accordingly developed

47 Bibliography Cuatecontzi, H. INE. (2003). Inventario Nacional de Emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero. Emisiones de Metano Fugitivo y precursores de Ozono en las Industrias del Petróleo y Gas Natural, y Carbón en México México. Fernández, A. Martínez, J. Osnaya, P. (2003). Avance de México en materia de cambio climático INE-SEMARNAT. México. Gutiérrez, L., Gasca, J. INE. (2003). Inventario Nacional de Emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero. Energía. Sector Transporte INE. Potencial de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica en Materia de Cambio Climático en México. Available online: [ ] INE. Inventario Nacional de Emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero México. Available online: [ ]. IPCC (2003). Cambio climático 2001: Informe de síntesis. Norway. IPCC. (1997) Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Available online: [ ]. IPCC. (2000). Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Available online: [ ]. IPCC. (2004). Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry. Available online: [ ] Scheinbaum, C. (2000). Metodología para la elaboración del inventario de gases de efecto invernadero asociado al consumo de energía en México. México. SEMARNAP. (1990). Inventario Nacional de Emisiones de Gases de Invernadero. México. SEMARNAP (1997). México. Primera Comunicación Nacional ante la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático. México. SEMARNAP. (1999). Inventario Nacional de Emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero con cifras de México. SEMARNAT-INE. (2001). México. Segunda Comunicación Nacional ante la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático. México

48 UNFCCC (2002). A Guide to the Climate Change Convention Process. 2 ed. Germany. UNFCCC (2003). Caring for climate. Germany. UNFCCC (2004). Counting emissions and removals. Greenhouse gas inventories under the UNFCCC. Brochure. Germnay. UNFCCC (2004). Reporting on Climate Change. User manual for the guidelines on national communications from non-annex I parties. Germany. UNFCCC (2004). The first 10 years. Germany