Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling -Markets
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1 Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling -Markets Adaptive Drift Modeling William S. Mallios Craig School of Busines California State University, Fresno Fresno, California WILEY A JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC., PUBLICATION
2 Contents Preface ix 1. Introduction Favorable Betting Scenarios / Gambling Shocks / The Dark Side of Sports: The Fixes / 9 2. Market Perspectives: Through a Glass Darkly Changing Paradigms / Modeling Commentaries / Sports Hedge Funds / Gambling Markets: Prohibition, Repeal, and Taxation / Quantifying the Madness of Crowds in Sports Gambling Markets / Statistical Shocks: Alias Variables / Opacity and Present-Day Dynamics Dilemmas between Social and Economic Efficiency / Toward a More Visible Hidden Hand / Hedge Funds, Galapagos, and Evolution / Lotteries: Market for Losers / 32
3 VI CONTENTS 4. Adaptive Modeling Concepts in Dynamic Markets Quant Funds and Algorithmic Trading / Market Volatility and Fat-Tailed Distributions / Adaptive ARMA(1, 1) Drift Processes / Time-Varying Volatility / Studies in Japanese Candlestick Charts Bullish and Bearish Configurations from Chartist Perspectives / Black Monday / A Matter of Alleged Insider Trading / Commodity Bubbles and Volatility / Short Selling / Terrorist Attacks and the Markets / A Hollywood Romance: Spiderman and Tinkerbell / Copenhagen and Climate Change: Exxon Mobile Buys XTO Energy / Pseudo-Candlesticks for Major League Baseball The 2008 World Series: Philadelphia Versus Tampa Bay / The 2008 Chicago Cubs: Visions of 1908 Heroics / A Strange Set of Coincidences: A Plate Umpire's Affinity for a Pitcher / Single-Equation Adaptive Drift Modeling Adaptive ARMA Processes / Variable Selection: Identifying the Reduced Model / Reduced Model Estimation: Single Equations / Reduced Model Empirical Bayesian Estimation: Single Equations / Single-Equation Volatility Modeling: Adaptive GARCH Processes / Modeling Monetary Growth Data / Modeling GNP Deflator Growth / 102
4 CONTENTS VII 8. Single-Equation Modeling: Sports Gambling Markets Effects of Interactive Gambling Shocks / End of an Era: Modeling Profile of the Los Angeles Lakers / Spread Betting / Modeling Profile of a Dream Team: The San Francisco 49ers / Major League Baseball: A Data-Intensive Game / While Still Under the Curse: Modeling Profile of the 1990 Boston Red Sox / Portrait of Controversy: Modeling Profile of Roger Clemens with the 1990 Red Sox / Pitcher of the Year in 1990: Modeling Profile of the Oakland's Bob Gibson / Simultaneous Financial Time Series The Curse of Higher Dimensionality / From Candlesticks to Cointegration / Cointegration in Terms of Autoregressive Processes / Estimating Disequilibria through Factor Analysis / Simultaneous Time Series: Adaptive Drift Modeling / Simultaneous Time Series: Adaptive Volatility Modeling / Exploratory Modeling: Marathon Oil Company / The High-Tech Bubble of 2000 / Twenty-Five Standard Deviation Moves / The March 2009 Nadir / Modeling Cointegrated Time Series Associated with NBA and NFL Games Modeling Transitions / The New York Giants: As Unexpected as Katrina / Misery for the Patriot Faithful / The Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl 2005 / 190
5 VIII CONTENTS 10.5 Miami's First NBA Title: / The San Antonio Spurs: Unexpected Titlists / Monitoring NBA Referee Performances / Categorical Forecasting Fisher's Discriminant Function / Bayesian Discriminant Analysis / Logistic Regression Analysis / Allocating Betting Monies in the Sports Gambling Markets / Financial/Mathematical Illiteracy and Adolescent Problem Gambling The Call for Financial/Mathematical Literacy in 21st-century America / Data, Information, and the Information Age / The Companion Epidemic of Adolescent Problem Gambling / Results of a Pilot Study on Adolescent Problem Gambling and Financial/Mathematical Literacy / The Influenza Futures Markets Markets for Expert Information Retrieval / Adaptive Seasonal Time Series Modeling / Forecasting Weekly Influenza and Pneumonia Deaths / References ' 247 Index 255
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