SOME ISSUES IN THE FULLY-WASHED COFFEE CHAIN IN RWANDA
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1 SOME ISSUES IN THE FULLY-WASHED COFFEE CHAIN IN RWANDA February 9 th 2015 Kigali Rocco Macchiavello Warwick University & IGC Ameet Morjaria Harvard University
2 Questions MAIN QUESTIONS Is FW coffee profitable for Rwanda? YES If yes, why only 30-40% of coffee is exported as such? LOW CAPACITY UTILIZATION Why such a low capacity utilization? MKT FAILURES, ESPECIALLY IN SOURCING & FINANCE Why did it take us 2 years to get back with results? 2
3 Questions MAIN QUESTIONS Is FW coffee profitable for Rwanda? YES If yes, why only 35-40% of coffee is exported as such? LOW CAPACITY UTILIZATION Why such a low capacity utilization? MKT FAILURES, ESPECIALLY IN SOURCING & FINANCE Why did it take us 2 years to get back with results? 3
4 Questions MAIN QUESTIONS Is FW coffee profitable for Rwanda? YES If yes, why only 35-40% of coffee is exported as such? LOW CAPACITY UTILIZATION Why does this happens? MKT FAILURES, ESPECIALLY IN SOURCING & FINANCE Why did it take us 2 years to get back with results? 4
5 Questions MAIN QUESTIONS Is FW coffee profitable for Rwanda? YES If yes, why only 35-40% of coffee is exported as such? LOW CAPACITY UTILIZATION Why does this happens? MKT FAILURES, ESPECIALLY IN SOURCING & FINANCE What can be done about it? TODAY S CONFERENCE 5
6 COFFEE WASHED CHAIN FARMERS STATIONS EXPORTERS FOREIGN BUYERS 6
7 COFFEE WASHED CHAIN What is (and isn t) the subject of the study? FARMERS STATIONS EXPORTERS FOREIGN BUYERS 7
8 DATA Survey of 178 CWS Managers Workers Farmers Collectors Administrative datasets from NAEB Export contracts Sourcing and prices Quality samples Stations census 2009 coffee census (at the farmer level) GIS data matched to all data above Roads, rivers, rainfall, soil, drainage, 8
9 AGENDA FOR TODAY 1. Comparison of FW and ORD value chains 2. Dispersion in Efficiency, Capacity Utilization and Management Competition Access to finance 3. Links to the conference agenda 9
10 VALUE ADDED ALONG THE CHAIN 10
11 VALUE ADDED ALONG THE CHAIN 11
12 VALUE ADDED ALONG THE CHAIN 12
13 VALUE ADDED ALONG THE CHAIN Yet, only 35-40% of coffee is sold as FW. Why? 13
14 SECTOR EXPANSION < 2002 Coffee Producing Sector: No. of Trees No data CWS Country boundary District boundary
15 SECTOR EXPANSION 2006 Coffee Producing Sector: No. of Trees No data CWS Country boundary District boundary
16 SECTOR EXPANSION 2011 Coffee Producing Sector: No. of Trees No data CWS Country boundary District boundary
17 CAPACITY INSTALLED % of Stations at Given Capacity Capacity (Tons of Cherries) 15% < 150 Tons.; 15% => 150 Tons. ; 30% => 250 Tons. ; 30% => 500 Tons; 10% => 1000 Tons Note: estimates from NAEB data.
18 Entry vs. Capacity Utilization 18
19 Variable: Dispersion in Efficiency ( 1 / Unit costs) Unit Costs Physical Efficiency Cherry Prices Other Unit Costs p75 - p25 Ratio p90 - p10 Ratio % Variation Explained by: Geography Technology Physical Efficiency [ 4 ] [ 3 ] Cherry Prices 5 [ 4 ] -- [ 7 ] % Variation Unexplained: For Cherry costs: R75/25=1.15; R90/10= rho(physical Efficiency, Cherry Prices)=0.33*** Significant dispersion in efficiency Management is key driver 19
![34 % Variation Explained by: Geography 27 34 41 30 Technology 8 6 7 4 Physical Efficiency 10 -- [ 4 ] [ 3 ] Cherry Prices 5 [ 4](/docs-images/44/13033777/images/page_19.jpg "] -- [ 7 ] % Variation Unexplained: 50 60 52 57 For Cherry costs: R75/25=1.15; R90/10= 1.28.")
20 Utilization and Relationship with Farmers
21 Why? SELF-REPORTED CONSTRAINTS TO OPERATION Competition for Cherries Transport & Roads Lack of Finance
22 Why? SELF-REPORTED CONSTRAINTS TO OPERATION Competition makes it harder to sustain and develop relationships Competition for Cherries Transport & Roads Lack of Finance
23 Financing Working Capital Working capital requirements = 70-80% of cash flows (against typical 20-40% for SMEs in manufacturing) Providing loans to CWS is also difficult, costly and risky WHERE DO CWS IN RWANDA GET FINANCE FROM?
24 ACCESS TO FINANCE Financial Institutions Internal Funds Service Providers Cherries Purchased on Credit
25 Financing Working Capital Working capital requirements = 70-80% of cash flows (against typical 20-40% for SMEs in manufacturing) Providing loans to CWS is also difficult, costly and risky As a result, we estimate approx. 60% of CWS to be credit constrained WHAT TO DO? Expanding Supply Value Chain Financing
26 Financing Working Capital Working capital requirements = 70-80% of cash flows (against typical 20-40% for SMEs in manufacturing) Providing loans to CWS is also difficult, costly and risky As a result, we estimate approx. 60% of CWS to be credit constrained WHAT TO DO? Expanding Supply Value Chain Financing Lowering Demand Buy on credit from farmers (strengthening relationships)
27 ACCESS TO FINANCE Second payments Saving is the main reason farmers process at home Financial Institutions Internal Funds Service Providers Cherries Purchased on Credit
28 REGULATORY OPTIONS Anarchy State Monopoly 28
29 REGULATORY OPTIONS Anarchy Zoning Regulations State Monopoly Marketing Regulations 29
30 REGULATORY OPTIONS Anarchy Market Supporting Institutions: Contract Enforcement Zoning Regulations State Monopoly Marketing Regulations 30
31 REGULATORY OPTIONS Uganda Costa Rica Burundi Kenya Anarchy Contract Enforcement Zoning Regulations State Monopoly Marketing Regulations Ethiopia 31
32 REGULATORY OPTIONS Uganda Costa Rica Burundi Kenya Anarchy Contract Enforcement Zoning Regulations State Monopoly Marketing Regulations Which role for IT in helping regulation? Ethiopia 32
33 WRAP - UP Issues: Washed coffee is profitable for Rwanda Strengthening relationships btw. farmers and stations Regulating competition and/or enforcing contracts Access to finance Session 2 33
34 WRAP - UP Issues: Washed coffee is profitable for Rwanda Strengthening relationships btw. farmers and stations Regulating competition and/or enforcing contracts Access to finance Session 2 Experience from other countries: Costa Rica, Burundi, Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Way forward Session 3 & wrap-up 34
35 Few Final Words 1. NAEB 2. IGC 3. Numerous stakeholders (private sectors, NGOs, financial institutions, ) and today s participants THANKS! 35
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