Income Statement +4% Revenue 3,406 3,272. Operating profit Interest (25) (49) +11% Profit before tax Taxation (141) (127)
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1 Introduction
2 Income Statement Revenue 3,406 3,272 Operating profit Interest (25) (49) +4% +11% Profit before tax Taxation (141) (127) Profit after tax EPS 188.5p 156.0p
3 Income Statement Revenue 3,406 3,272 +4% Operating profit % Interest (25) (49) One Offs Profit before tax Taxation Increase to profit (141) (127) Extra (53 rd ) week 7m Profit after tax NSL provision 2m Decrease to profit London Olympics 5m Int l goodwill 2m EPS 188.5p 156.0p Int l impairment 3m Total 9m Total 10m
4 Income Statement Revenue 3,406 3,272 Operating profit Interest (25) (49) Profit before tax Average Taxation Debt Balance (141) 750m (127) Profit after tax m EPS 188.5p 156.0p Rate 5.0% Rate 6.3%
5 Income Statement Revenue 3,406 3,272 Operating profit Interest (25) (49) Profit before tax Taxation (141) (127) +4% +11% +18% 28.0% 29.5% Profit after tax EPS 188.5p 156.0p +21%
6 Income Statement The Times, 20th April 2009 m Revenue Operating profit Interest Profit before tax TaxationDebt Balance Average ,406 3, (25) 478 (49) 505 (141) m (127) Profit after tax 28.0% m 29.5% 302 EPS 188.5p 156.0p Rate 5.0% Rate 6.3% % +21%
7 Balance Sheet Fixed assets Goodwill Stocks Debtors Creditors (886) (842) Derivatives 4 66 Pension fund deficit (50) (69) Buyback commitments (90) - Net debt (400) (629) -3% -1% Net assets
8 Balance Sheet Fixed assets Goodwill Stocks Debtors % Directory Debtors January m + 5.0% January m Sales increase + 7.0%
9 Balance Sheet Fixed assets Goodwill Stocks Debtors Creditors (886) (842) Derivatives 4 66 Pension fund deficit (50) (69) Buyback commitments (90) - Net debt (400) (629) + 5% Net assets
10 Cash Flow Profit before tax Depreciation / impairment Capital expenditure (99) (121) Acquisitions - (14) Working capital / other 13 (18) Dividends paid (109) (107) Tax paid (115) (126) Share buybacks (102) (55) Net cash flow
11 Cash Flow Profit before tax Depreciation / impairment Capital expenditure (99) (121) Warehouse / other Stores 99m 20m 79m 121m 19m 102m NEW 46m EXT 7m REFITS 26m NEW 60m Jan 10 Jan 09 REFITS 42m
12 Cash Flow Profit before tax Depreciation / impairment Capital expenditure (99) (121) Warehouse / other Stores 121m 34m 87m 99m 20m 79m NEW 46m EXT 17m REFITS 24m Jan 11(e) NEW 46m EXT 7m Jan 10 REFITS 26m
13 Cash Flow Profit before tax Depreciation / disposals Capital expenditure (99) (121) Acquisitions - (14) Working capital / other 13 (18) Dividends paid (109) (107) Tax paid (115) (126) Share buybacks (102) (55) Net cash flow Operational cash flow
14 Cash Flow m Profit before tax Depreciation / disposals Capital expenditure Acquisitions Working capital / other Dividends paid Tax paid Share buybacks Net cash flow (99) - 13 (109) (115) (102) (e) (121) (70) (132) (150)
15 Debt and Facilities Net debt 2010 Sept 2010 peak(e) 295m 800m 2013 Bank January 2011(e) Inc. completed buybacks 600m 255m 2013 Bond 320m 250m 2016 Bond Net debt Facilities
16 Cash Generation and Buybacks Shares purchased since 4 th Jan 2010 Cash used 190m Share Price Earnings enhancement m of Buybacks 5.0% 9.5m shares Dividend saving(e) 6.8m
17 Dividends Jan 2011(e) Jan 2010 Jan 2009 At least 10% increase +20% 66p COVER 2.8x 55p COVER 2.8x Retail average 2.4x FTSE 100 average 1.8x
18 Retail
19 Retail Revenue 2,274 2, % Operating profit % % to revenue 14.2% 13.1%
20 Retail 52 v 52 Revenue 2,274 2, % 3.5% Operating profit % % to revenue 14.2% 13.1%
21 Retail : Sales Analysis 52 v 52 Revenue 2,274 2, % 3.5% Operating profit % % to revenue 14.2% 13.1% Sales Analysis 52 week full price LFL Net sales from new space 52 week full price sales Impact of extra week Markdowns Total Sales + 0.5% + 3.2% + 3.7% + 1.5% -1.7% + 3.5% Inc. Directory + 1.7%
22 Retail : Profit Analysis Revenue 2,274 2, % Operating profit % % to revenue 14.2% 13.1% Margin Movement FX impact - 5.0% Better sourcing + 3.7% VAT reduction + 0.5% Lower freight + 0.4% Bought in gross margin - 0.4%
23 Retail : Profit Analysis Index Revenue 79 2,274 2, % Operating profit % Brand surplus stock % to revenue 14.2% 13.1% 2010 Margin Movement Bought in gross margin - 0.4% Markdowns + 1.4% Achieved gross margin + 1.0%
24 Retail : Profit Analysis Revenue 2,274 2, % Operating profit % % to revenue 14.2% 13.1% Margin Movement Achieved gross margin + 1.0% Rent 0.0% Rates - 0.1% Depreciation - 0.1% Utilities & other + 0.5% Occupancy + 0.3%
25 Retail : Profit Analysis Revenue 2,274 2, % Operating profit % % to revenue 14.2% 13.1% Margin Movement Achieved gross margin + 1.0% Occupancy + 0.3% Branch payroll 0.0% Warehouse & distribution + 0.5% Overheads / other - 0.7%
26 Retail : Space Expansion Stores Sq Ft (k) January ,506 New Mainline New Home Re-sites (11) 0 89 Extensions (10) 0 26 Closed (13) (45) January , % New Store Performance Mainline Home Total Performance vs target + 15% + 43% + 20% Payback (months) Net branch contribution 21% 19% 21%
27 Retail : Space Expansion Stores Sq Ft (k) New Mainline 8 70 New Home Re-sites (11) (1) 70 Extensions (12) 0 50 January 2011(e) 536 6, % January ,763
28 Directory
29 Directory : Sales Analysis Revenue % Operating profit % % to revenue 21.0% 19.3% Sales Drivers Active customers 2.28m 2.20m + 3.6% Printed pages 3,968 3, %
30 Directory : Sales Analysis 52 v 52 Revenue % 7.0% Operating profit % % to revenue 21.0% 19.3% Sales Drivers Active customers 2.28m 2.20m + 3.6% Printed pages 3,968 3, %
31 Directory : Profit Analysis Revenue % Operating profit % % to revenue 21.0% 19.3% Margin Movement Bought in gross margin - 0.4% Markdowns + 0.9% Achieved gross margin + 0.5%
32 Directory : Profit Analysis Revenue % Operating profit % % to revenue 21.0% 19.3% Margin Movement Achieved gross margin + 0.5% Bad debt reduction + 0.7% Service charge - 0.3% Book creation / marketing + 0.7% Warehouse & distribution + 1.0% Other - 0.9%
33 International (NextDirect.com) 1. Direct trading in 36 countries 2. Delivery operations robust 3. Advantages over Retail Low start up costs Low fixed overheads Central stock location Scalability Turnover 2009/10 2.5m Turnover(e) 2010/11 7.0m
34 International Revenue % Operating profit % % to revenue 1.8% 13.2% Profit Trading profit One offs Operating profit 2010 International Franchise partners LFL sales - 7% Central Europe LFL sales - 14% Poor start for Scandinavian stores
35 International Revenue % Operating profit % % to revenue 1.8% 13.2% Profit Trading profit One offs Operating profit 2010 International NextDirect.com* Total * Within Directory
36 International Revenue % Operating profit % % to revenue 1.8% 13.2% Profit International NextDirect.com* Total Operating profit Operating profit 2011(e) * Within Directory
37 Sourcing USD Intra-group sales % % Operating profit % Increased competition Lower commission income Includes 2m profit share release 2010/11(e) profits circa 30m
38 Ventura Revenue % Operating profit % % to revenue 4.1% 3.1% Profits up and ahead of expectations Contracts renewed and new business won Expect some sales and profit growth in 2010/11
39 Other Lipsy 0.1 (1.4) Property Associates Group / other (22.0) (14.5) Total (20.7) (14.2)
40 Lipsy Part year Sales Profit 0.1 (1.4) Profit includes 400k of integration costs
41 Lipsy Part year Sales Profit 0.1 (1.4) Profit includes 400k of integration costs 13 stores open
42 Lipsy Part year Sales Profit 0.1 (1.4) New Store Performance Performance v target + 6% Payback (months) 21 Net branch contribution 15%
43 Lipsy Part year Sales Profit 0.1 (1.4) 11 stores planned for 2010/ /11(e) profits circa 2m
44 Other Lipsy 0.1 (1.4) Property Associates Group / other (22.0) (14.5) Total (20.7) (14.2)
45 Outlook
46 Better Than Expected... Jan m NO. OF EMPLOYED DOWN 500K Jan m +51% -1.8% NO. OF UNEMPLOYED UP 900K 28.9m BENEFITS UP MORTGAGE COSTS DOWN 1.6m Source: HM Treasury
47 BUT... Interest Rates Annualise 8% Average Mortgage Interest Rate 6% 4% 2% 0% JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN Source: Bank of England
48 THE CHALLENGE... Gov t Debt Tax increases? Spending cuts? Job losses?
49 Quarterly Retail Full Price LFLs* Tougher comparisons going forward + 4.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4-0.2% -0.3% -2.4% * Excluding VAT
50 Next Sales Outlook for 1 st Half LFL Retail (VAT inc)* - 1.5% to + 1.5% Total Retail (VAT inc) + 1.5% to + 4.5% Directory (VAT inc) + 2.0% to + 5.0% * Like for like sales excluding Direct sales
51 Next Sales Outlook for 1 st Half LFL Retail (VAT ex)* - 1.5% 2.5% to + 1.5% 0.5% Total Retail (VAT ex) % 1.5% to + 3.5% 4.5% Directory (VAT ex) + 2.0% 1.0% to + 5.0% 4.0% * Like for like sales excluding Direct sales
52 Annual Sales and Profit Scenario (NOT forecast!) IF... Annual LFL Retail (VAT ex) -2% Annual Total Retail (VAT ex) Flat (52 vs 53) Annual Directory (VAT ex) Flat (52 vs 53) THEN Group profit circa ~ 540m +7% + 1%
53 Year End Statement Better design Growth opportunities Good cost control Strong cash generation New product development Profitable new space Increase UK Directory sales NextDirect.com 5% EPS growth (buybacks) 10%+ dividend increase
54 Year End In Summary In summary Continued progress expected in an uncertain environment
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