Linking housing markets. The effect of Crossrail on housing markets in London. Crossrail. London

Transcription

1 Linking housing markets he effect of Crossrail on housing markets in London Crossrail London

2 LINKING REPOR ILE HOUSING MARKES EX RESULS HERE Contents Crossrail _ 04 Summary _ 06 A Cataylst For Change _ 08 Introduction _ 09 Shifting Journey imes _ 10 West London _ 12 East London _ 14 Central London Foreword As transport links are created and existing links enhanced, local economic activity can be improved through increased access to geographic areas by new populations and communities. here are, however, costs throughout the transport infrastructure construction process. Uncertainty in the project planning phase creates a reluctance to buy or sell. Externalities associated with construction, such as construction traffic and noise pollution, cause blight while the projects are being built again affecting the desire and ability to buy and sell. Finally, at the end of the project, changes to the landscape both visual and audible can also affect the desirability of existing and new sites. Summary of Crossrail Findings A broader recovery in the housing market over 2013 saw a positive Crossrail effect spread across domestic housing markets in both East and West London, confirming an impact in the anticipation of the scheme along most of the line. here are signs that Crossrail is already accounted for in property prices in much of Central London. he positive impact of Crossrail in Central London is limited by the quality of the existing transport options and construction work deterring buyers. Housing markets in Zones wo and hree where journey time to Central London has dropped below 20 minutes have seen big leaps in activity. ransactions within 500 metres of Crossrail stations in those areas have doubled since construction began in Less established markets further from Central London (areas beyond Zone hree) have started to see price growth in areas within 500 metres of stations. Crossrail has been a major stimulus for new build development. One in five new build homes sold in London since 2009 were within a mile of a Crossrail station. Authors JOHNNY MORRIS Head of Research FIONNUALA EARLEY Research Director DAVID FELL Research Analyst 4/5 3

3 LINKING HOUSING MARKES Crossrail Summary his research addresses the question: What impact is Crossrail currently having on local housing markets across London? By examining activity and prices in the housing markets around stations we identify the areas that are experiencing a Crossrail effect, quantify that impact and provide some pointers on how that effect may develop in future. Whilst it is difficult to divorce the impact of Crossrail from wider market factors, such as regeneration prospects and development opportunities stimulated by the project, careful examination of local market trends allows the effects to be estimated. he housing market saw a shift in gear over Economic recovery and increasing market confidence spread housing growth across the capital, leaving the previously untouchable Prime Central London markets looking a little deflated in comparison. his shift in the source and quantity of demand has also driven a step change in the performance of the housing markets surrounding Crossrail stations. here is evidence of the Crossrail effect spreading out from Central London to the East and further along the line to the West. A Crossrail effect on housing markets is apparent across the line, although in many areas it accelerated over ransactions within a mile of Crossrail stations grew by 21 per cent in 2013, well above the London average of 13 per cent. Sales within 500 metres (0.3 miles) grew a little faster at 23 per cent. One in ten home sales in London in 2013 were within a mile of a Crossrail station. Crossrail construction started in Since then, the longer term picture has seen activity perform closer to London averages. Within 500 metres of London stations transactions grew by 54 per cent, and within a mile 44 per cent. his compares to an increase in transactions of 52 per cent across London in the last five years. Prior to 2013, only a few Crossrail stations, often in the most active markets or with a head start in the regeneration race, were seeing the prospects of the future transport links impacting on local markets. Within one mile of stations across London house prices rose by 34 per cent from 2009, slightly lower growth of 27 per cent was recorded within 500 metres. his compares to price growth across London over the same period of 26 per cent. In 2013 prices around stations grew by 10 per cent, broadly in line with the wider London average of 11 per cent. Outer London stations, however, have dragged down the average price growth in some cases. While a number of individual stations have seen some very strong price growth driven by purchasers interested in medium to long term residential investments and regeneration prospects, it is market activity that is currently enjoying the most marked Crossrail effect in London. As well as the impact on existing housing markets, Crossrail continues to be a major stimulus for new build development. Since 2009, one in five new build sales across London were within a mile of a Crossrail station. While new home delivery so far has been concentrated in Central London and Canary Wharf, as the scheme progresses there will be a significant number of new homes delivered further along the line to the East and West. Crossrail s 36 housing markets in numbers Price as a percentage of Local Authority average 12 month price growth, 500m unnel 12 month transaction growth, 500m Households within 500m 118% 1% 116% 12% 72% 17% 87% 21% 67% 9% 94% 5% 319% 10% 140% 49% 31% -8% -36% -9% -34% 106% 102% 142% 94% 115% 154% 97% 138% 189% 1,400 4,300 3,400 3,000 2,900 2,200 1,500-1% 60% 3% 118% -7% 36% 16% -1% 0% 33% 7% 66% 12% -8% 36% 11% 70% -11% Stratford Forest Gate Ilford Goodmayes Romford Harold Wood Shenfield 700 2, ,800 3,000 3,300 7,300 5,100 2,300 aplow Maidenhead Slough Burnham Langley West Dreyton Hayes & Ealing Iver Harlington Hanwell Broadway Paddington Southall West Ealing Acton Main Lane Bond Street ottenham Court Road Farringdon Liverpool Street Whitechapel Maryland 105% -3% 48% 4,900 Manor Park Seven Kings Chadwell Heath 102% 85% 15% 14% 67% 44% 69% 14% 2,500 3,700-12% 3,500 Gidea Park 120% 12% 50% 2,600 Brentwood 136% 3% 53% 3,600 66% 13% 17% 2, % 4% -26% 2, % -4% 35% 1,100 82% 0% 43% 3,000 Heathrow Airport 71% 3% 100% 2, % -6% 35% 4, % -2% 60% 3, % 0% 30% 3, % 18% -13% 4,300 80% -4% 74% 6,300 Canary Wharf Custom House Woolwich Abbey Wood 150% 4% 65% 2, % 60% 73% 13% -2% 16% 76% 1% -9% 3,800 4,600 2,700 4/5

4 LINKING HOUSING MARKES EX HERE A Catalyst for Change he 37 Crossrail stations are, and will continue to be, the focal points for new build development in the capital A Catalyst for Regeneration OVER SIE DEVELOPMEN REDEVELOPMEN SCHEME C rossrail has been a significant driver of regeneration and new development. Locations close to both existing and new Crossrail stations have been the focus of efforts to stimulate development by property companies, developers, Local Authorities and the Greater London Authority. hese groups have been attempting to capitalise on the value added to the housing market by improved transport links into Central London and other areas of employment. welve major property development opportunities have even been integrated into the construction of Crossrail. hese over-site developments (OSDs) are mixed use opportunities and predominantly located in Central London. OSDs are poised to add to the transformative effect of the new Crossrail links through complementary new build development. Highlights include the 325,000 sq ft mixed use scheme above Paddington station recently granted planning permission and three sites (along with the station re-development) in ottenham Court Road, set to re-vitalise the eastern end of Oxford Street. Crossrail stations have also become the focal point of many major regeneration projects across the route outside of Central London, an accelerant to kick start long planned schemes. Maidenhead, Ealing and Southall all have notable plans to transform the areas around the Crossrail stations. In other areas of London the stations are forming the lynch pin for long running development projects, cementing the improvement in an area. Woolwich is a prime example, although the station wasn t included in the original scope of the Crossrail project. An agreement with, and funding from, Berkeley Homes and the Royal Borough of Greenwich secured the addition of Woolwich station to the route. here has already been a significant quantum of residential development around Crossrail stations since the project began in One in five new homes sold in London in the last five years were built within a mile of a Crossrail station. Canary Wharf alone has seen nearly 2,000 new build sales within a mile of the station, accounting for a quarter of all new homes built along the route so far. Central London and Canary Wharf account for two thirds of new homes sales along the Crossrail route. As the scheme progresses and large projects come out of the ground in areas such as Ealing, Southall and Stratford we will see that provision of new homes shift further out from Central London. his will be buoyed and supported by the recovering market, which has seen a surge of domestic demand return to the London housing market. he shortage of new homes and affordability pressures in Central London will mean many of these areas, with the prospect of improving transport links, will be the perfect place for frustrated demand to be realised. PADDINGON Name: Paddington riangle ype: Oversite development Scheme: 325,000 ft² of office and retail space BOND SREE Name: 65 Davies Street ype: Oversite development Scheme: 115,000 ft² of office space OENHAM COUR ROAD Name: Dean Street ype: Oversite development Scheme: 105,000 ft² of residential space (92 units) & 12,000 ft² retail space FARRINGDON Name: Cowcross ype: Oversite development Scheme: 207,000 ft² office and retail space Where: WOOLWICH Name: Arsenal Way ype: Oversite development Scheme: 398 residential units MAIDENHEAD Scheme: 150m town centre and waterway regeneration Includes: 200 flats, retail and office space SOUHALL Scheme: Redevelopment of Southall Gas works Includes: 3,750 homes, school and retail units Status: In design, completion set for 2019 EALING BROADWAY Scheme: Dickens Yard Includes: 698 flats and 22 retail units Status: In construction, completion set for 2016 OENHAM COUR ROAD Scheme: Public realm improvements and construction of 4 new mixed use blocks Includes: 500,000 ft² of retail, office and residential accommodation Status: Planning approved, construction set to start in 2017 Where: ABBEY WOOD Scheme: Cross Quarter Includes: 200 units and 81,000 ft² supermarket Status: Construction starts mid 2014 New Build Sales within a Mile of Crossrail Stations since NEW BUILD SALES MAIDENHEAD APLOW BURNHAM SLOUGH LANGLEY IVER WES DRAYON HAYES AND HARLINGON SOUHALL HANWELL WES EALING EALING BROADWAY ACON MAIN LINE PADDINGON BOND SREE OENHAM COUR ROAD FARRINGDON LIVERPOOL SREE WHIECHAPEL CANARY WHARF SRAFORD CUSOM HOUSE MARYLAND WOOLWICH FORES GAE ABBEY WOOD MANOR PARK ILLFORD SEVEN KINGS GOODMAYES CHADWELL HEAH ROMFORD GIDEA PARK HAROLD WOOD BRENWOOD SHENFIELD 6/7

5 LINKING REPOR ILE HOUSING MARKES EX HERE Introduction While Crossrail construction started in 2009 the scheme has been in the works for well over 30 years Shifting Journey imes he drop in commute time to 20 minutes is proving a significant market driver he concept of an East West rail link across London is far from new. In its current form the idea of Crossrail was first proposed in 1974 by a Greater London Council study into London s railway capacity. A tunnel linking Paddington and Liverpool Street was proposed to relieve congestion at Central London stations. Although the proposals didn t come to fruition, parts of the route and existing tunnels were safeguarded from future development. In 2005, the bill which would ultimately lead to Crossrail being built in a form that is recognisable today was introduced to Parliament. It received royal ascent in 2008 with a small number of amendments made to the route. July 2005 Crossrail Bill launched July 2008 Crossrail Act recieved royal ascent May 2009 Crossrail construction work starts Feb % of tunnelling work completed May 2018 Paddington link opens December 2019 Full service starts M arket activity around Crossrail stations has soared in areas where commuting times into central London will fall to less than 20 minutes. he areas close to Crossrail stations in Zones wo and hree have seen the largest uplift in transactions. he number of transactions within 500 metres of Crossrail stations in Zones wo and hree has risen 116 per cent since Crossrail construction began in 2009 compared to a 52 per cent increase in sales across London as a whole. With the areas around most stations in Central London already well connected, the number of buyers looking to purchase directly because of Crossrail close to stations has been more limited. In Zone One the number of sales within 500 metres of a Crossrail station remained unchanged between 2009 and 2013 despite the total number of sales rising 52 per cent in London over the same period. Other transport options and the effect of disruption around Crossrail sites have been responsible for buyers avoiding these areas. Crossrail will substantially cut the journey times from a number of stations outside London, bringing them for the first time into commuter belt territory. In the suburban confines of Zones Six and Seven, fast non-stopping intercity services allow Central London to be reached quickly. While transactions have grown in these areas the effect has so far been concentrated within 500 metres of stations. Method his research is based on an analysis of local housing markets around 36 of the planned Crossrail stations (Heathrow is excluded due to a lack of housing stock). For each station, analysis was conducted at radii of 500 metres (0.3miles) and 1 mile, taking into account access to stations, and compared to local authority performance to give a wider context. he analysis was based on price paid transactional data from the Land Registry and demographic data from the 2011 and 2001 Censuses. Where applicable, data from local agency offices as well as interviews with local managers was incorporated to test assertions developed using the analysis. Market performance was examined between 2009 and 2013 with particular focus on the performance over While the Crossrail Act was passed in 2008, because of the natural lag in Land Registry market data and the falling market in 2008, 2009 was considered to be the best starting point for the analysis. It is difficult to ascribe the fortunes of a market to any one particular effect particularly that of future infrastructure like Crossrail and over a period that has seen the market crash and recover. hrough the combination of quantitative analysis of market data and qualitative research into the behaviour of market participants we aim to shed new light on the impact of Crossrail with respect to local market performance. COS OF CONSRUCION Crossrail: 14.8bn HS1: 6.1bn HS2 phase 1: 17.2bn RACK LENGH: Crossrail: 73 miles Central Line: 46 miles ESIMAED CAPACIY: Crossrail: 200m journeys per year Central Line: 260m PEAK RAINS PER HOUR: Crossrail: Central Line: Change in transaction numbers from % 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% ZONE 1 Disruption caused by construction works puts off would be customers ZONES 2-3 Journey times cut in half. Commute cut from average of 28 minutes to % ZONE 1 ZONE 2 ZONE 3 ZONE 4 ZONE 5 ZONE 6 ZONE 7 he more established housing markets in West London have been quicker to price in Crossrail than in East London. Developers in West London secured large sites in Paddington, Acton and Ealing well in advance of Crossrail s inception. he effect of Crossrail in West ZONES 4-5 Employment is often local. Existing journey times into central London prohibitive. Crossrail will not change this sustantially 1 MILE ZONES 6-7 Commuter belt to the east home to the suburban commuter. Fast trains to Liverpool Street make commuting possible. London has, so far, been more extensive. Areas up to, and beyond, a mile from Crossrail stations have seen both prices and transactions grow at a rate well above the local authority average with buyers more confident that Crossrail will have significantly positive effect on the area. 4/5 8/9

6 REPOR LINKING ILE HOUSING MARKES West London Summary Ealing Broadway 2013 has seen the impact of Crossrail being felt much further along the line he Crossrail additions to the West of London will cut journey times to Central London by nearly half an hour on average. At peak times there will be between four and ten Crossrail trains an hour. Whilst not as frequent as East London services, the fall in travel time and direct link to central stations (removing the need for a change at Paddington) will improve the commute to London from many stations in West London significantly. he promise of a better commute is, however, only just starting to have noticeable impact in the areas beyond Ealing Broadway, as Crossrail completion is still four years away Markets around stations on the Western section of the line saw large increases in transaction activity in Within 500 metres of a Crossrail station the increase is 36 per cent, well above the 12 per cent growth recorded in West London as a whole. he growth is driven by stations further along the line led by Slough and Southall, which prior to 2013 had seen very little activity. Over 2013 prices in West London appear to have followed the wider trend, with prices within a mile of the station up 6 per cent in Lower price growth closer to stations, 1 per cent within 500 metres, is representative of stations with limited housing stock and less desirable areas immediately surrounding stations. here will be a large transformation in these areas once regeneration schemes such as those in Maidenhead and Southall take root. Since 2009 West London has benefitted from stronger price growth than East London, seeing prices rise by 20 per cent from he higher value markets in West London have been better positioned to take advantage of the recovering housing market. It is the more expensive areas in the capital that have recovered fastest in recent years. Estimate of Crossrail impact on housing markets surrounding Crossrail stations SAION PAS IMPAC FUURE IMPAC Hanwell West Ealing West Drayton Langley Southall Maidenhead Acton Main Line Ealing Broadway Slough Hayes & Harlington Burnham Iver aplow LOW IMPAC MEDIUM IMPAC HIGH IMPAC West London Key Numbers MEASURE WES LONDON 36% 23% 12% % 41% 53% FROM 2009 PRICE % 6% 7% PRICE FROM % 23% 20% Crossrail is right at the front of both buyers and sellers minds in Ealing E AVG. PRICE FLA 345,000 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - 849,000 aling Broadway already benefits from rail links to Paddington and the Central Line across London, meaning journey times will only see a 10 minute reduction with Crossrail. Interest in the scheme from local sellers and investors is still very high though. Price growth figures show that there has already been activity close to the station; from 2009 the average price of properties sold within 500m of Ealing Broadway grew by 48 per cent versus an average 23 per cent growth in the local authority. ransactions Hanwell he new line will radically transform Hanwell s links to the rest of London H anwell stands to see the biggest reduction in journey time to Central London of any Crossrail station in West London. A train from Hanwell to ottenham Court Road will only take 15 minutes with Crossrail, half an hour less than at present. Activity in Hanwell around the station has been high since 2009, within 500m of the station transactions increased by 71 per cent from 2009 and by a third over the last 12 months. Price growth has been subdued though. Prices within 500m of the station saw little Maidenhead he Crossrail effect is starting to materialise in the Maidenhead housing market W hile Crossrail only offers a small time saving on the journey from Maidenhead to Paddington, the link it provides to Central London and Canary Wharf will reduce journey times by eliminating multiple changes. A Crossrail effect on prices has not yet been seen in Maidenhead. he area closest to the station has underperformed the local averages since 2009 with prices within 500m at only two thirds of the local average. he prospect of Crossrail services coming to Maidenhead in 2019 has yet to excite owner within 500m have also picked up, doubling since Within the wider area, a mile around the station, price growth is much closer to the local averages, although activity saw a significant increase in Crossrail has become a major consideration with vendors in the area; anecdotal evidence suggests many are considering putting off selling in the expectation that prices, driven by development and the Crossrail link, will outperform the wider area. It seems Crossrail is already well on its way to being priced into the Ealing market. AVG. PRICE FLA 265,000 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - 489,000 change in A mile from the station Hanwell has outperformed the local average over the last 5 years, with prices standing at 116 per cent of the local authority average, up from 109 per cent in Hanwell has certainly benefited already from future Crossrail prospects, but the area has also been buoyed by buyers looking beyond Ealing as prices rise. Hanwell seems to be well poised to benefit from Crossrail, with increased market activity around the station yet to translate into significant house price growth. AVG. PRICE FLA 205,500 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - 395,500 occupiers in the area. But there are reports of investors looking for property in the centre in anticipation of the Crossrail link. he pick-up in demand led to higher price growth within 500 metres of the station over 2013 and a 17 per cent increase in transactions. he heady mix of Crossrail and the redevelopment of the town centre through the Kings riangle and Chapel Arches schemes will transform the centre of Maidenhead. Most value growth is likely to be realised after the redevelopment is underway and Crossrail is operational. HPI 66% 169% 27% 67% 16% 55% HPI 7% 48% 6% 25% 8% 23% HPI 33% 22% 16% HPI 0% 30% 7% 32% 8% 23% 17% 31% 15% HPI 71% 53% 55% HPI 13% 0% 6% 9% 20% 4% 14% 36% 22% 3,317 19, ,082 EALING BOROUGH 2,993 23, ,082 EALING BOROUGH 1,981 12,344 58,349 WINDSOR & MAIDENHEAD 10/11

7 LINKING HOUSING MARKES EX HERE East London Summary Stratford 2013 was the year East Enders discovered Crossrail was the year Crossrail began to be priced into housing markets across East London, the primary beneficiaries being areas close to Crossrail stations generally within 500 metres. Prior to 2013, despite the high profile nature of the Crossrail project, prices and transactions in housing markets close to Crossrail stations performed at levels similar to the wider local authority average in which they sit. he main beneficiaries of Crossrail have been the areas around stations in Zones wo, hree and Four, particularly where journey times into central London will fall below 20 minutes. For many emerging locations, price and transaction growth has so far been limited to areas immediately around Crossrail stations with market activity focussed on a street by street basis within a mile of Crossrail stations. Abbey Wood and Forest Gate are both examples where the impact of Crossrail is being felt close to stations, yet less than a mile away housing markets remain unchanged. Areas surrounding more established housing markets such as Stratford and Canary Wharf have seen Crossrail kindle stronger transaction and house price growth further away from stations. Over the last 12 months prices in the areas 500 metres around Crossrail stations in East London grew 11 per cent. his figure is higher than East London house price growth as a whole, and particularly notable as it has occurred in areas which have traditionally seen below average price growth. However, the increase in price and transactions remains limited to the areas close to Crossrail stations particularly beyond of Zone hree. A mile away, average prices across East London rose just five per cent over the same period. Estimate of Crossrail impact on housing markets surrounding Crossrail stations SAION PAS IMPAC FUURE IMPAC Woolwich Abbey Wood Forest Gate Custom House Stratford Canary Wharf Brentwood Shenfield Manor Park Illford Maryland Gidea Park Harold Wood Romford Goodmayes Seven Kings Chadwell Heath LOW IMPAC MEDIUM IMPAC HIGH IMPAC East London Key Numbers MEASURE 1 MILE EAS LONDON % 27% 18% FROM % 46% 55% PRICE % 5% 7% PRICES % 13% 13% here s more to talk about than just Crossrail AVG. PRICE FLA 250,000 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - 350,000 he impact of Crossrail on local housing markets in Stratford is yet to be felt, and is likely to remain minimal. While Stratford is a major transport and retail hub, the number of households within walking distance of the station is extremely limited. Given a lack of nearby housing, many of Stratford s residents use existing closer stations. At present four lines connect Stratford to central London, the fastest of which takes less than 10 minutes. he introduction of Crossrail, while significantly increasing Woolwich All aboard for Woolwich he regeneration of Woolwich has been taking place for a number of years. Most recently, the extension of the Docklands Light Railway opened in 2009 and the first phase of the Royal Arsenal development was completed in he original Crossrail route did not include a station at Woolwich however funding from Berkley Homes meant one was subsequently added. Significant regeneration elsewhere in the area and uncertainty about the Crossrail route has meant that it has not been until 2013 that the impact of Crossrail has begun to be felt on house prices. Abbey Wood imes are changing at the end of the line he housing market in Abbey Wood can be divided into two segments. North of the railway is hamesmead, London s second largest public housing development. Regeneration schemes, with the exception of West hamesmead, have tended to be small scale. South of the railway is the Bostall Estate built in 1900 by the Co-operative movement. Over the last five years, the impact of Crossrail has been larger on the latter than the former. In the longer term however, Crossrail will aid in the regeneration of hamesmead. capacity and enhancing Stratford s status as a transport hub, will have little impact on journey times. he majority of new residential development, most notably the conversion of the former Olympic Village into housing, will be served primarily by existing HS1 services from Stratford International which reach Central London in seven minutes. Over the last four years price growth in Stratford has been high, four times the 11% seen in Newham over the same period. he effect of Olympic regeneration and the limited effect of Crossrail now seem to be priced in. AVG. PRICE FLA 250,000 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - 300,000 Despite price rises over the last 12 months, much of Crossrail s impact is yet to be felt. Less than a third of the 4,600 households within 500m of Woolwich Crossrail station live in privately owned or rented accommodation; the majority renting from the Local Authority. he impact of regeneration in Woolwich has been to expand considerably the amount of privately owned housing stock in the area and with it the number of transactions. AVG. PRICE FLA 150,000 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - 270, was the year Crossrail began to be priced into the housing market in Abbey Wood. While there has been considerable local coverage of Crossrail, before 2012 there had yet to be an impact on house prices. Despite strong price growth over the last 12 months, prices in Abbey Wood remain well below the Greenwich average. Given Crossrail will cut journey times into ottenham Court Road from 46 to 23 minutes and the high frequency of services, the area still looks competitively priced in comparison to similar parts of London. HPI 140% 37% 85% 28% 284% 49% HPI 1% 43% 2% 20% 4% 11% 1% 29% 113% 4% HPI HPI -2% 6% 11% 20% 8% 16% 413% 51% -9% -7% 4% 4% HPI 35% HPI 16% 17% 6% 10% 8% 16% 51% 1,361 23, ,519 NEWHAM 4,592 17, ,045 GREENWICH 2,734 17, ,045 GREENWICH 12/13

8 LINKING HOUSING MARKES EX HERE Central London Summary Bond Street Wider market forces currently dwarf Crossrail in Central London he driving narrative behind the prime markets in Central London is a familiar one. Since the downturn in 2008 the market has been propelled forward by an influx of foreign investment, leading these housing markets to recover before anywhere else in the UK. In Prime Central London prices now stand 40 per cent above peak levels. High prices in Prime Central London, a lack of stock and steady increases in UK buyers in the wider Central London market have seen growth shift beyond Mayfair, Belgravia and Chelsea in he recovery in the economy has stimulated huge demand in areas such as Fulham, Islington and Hackney. In this environment it is very hard to divorce the impact of the wider market in Central London from that of Crossrail. Price growth is, however, in line with the wider area over the last 12 months and below wider averages since his growth pattern implies that the pricing in these areas is actually defined by wider forces, a concept supported by lower transaction growth. It makes sense for housing markets to behave in this manner, as many of these stations will be used by those travelling from other parts of London for work, shopping or leisure and many of the Central London stations are already very well connected. SAION PAS IMPAC FUURE IMPAC Whitechapel ottenham CR Farringdon Paddington Liverpool St. Bond St. LOW IMPAC MEDIUM IMPAC HIGH IMPAC Central London Key Numbers MEASURE CENRAL LONDON 7% 11% 12% % 27% 46% FROM 2009 PRICE % 15% 12% Farringdon PRICE FROM % 56% 46% Whitechapel he housing market around Bond Street stands little to gain from Crossrail in the short term AVG. PRICE FLA 1,244,000 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - 3,742,000 B ond Street station already has very good underground links to the rest of London. he Jubilee line and Central lines run through the station while the Bakerloo line at Oxford Circus and Piccadilly and Victoria Lines at Green Park are within walking distance. While Bond Street will undoubtedly benefit from increased traffic to and from the station, the increase in travel times or connectivity for residents is unlikely to be tangible enough to have a significant impact on purchasing decisions. A major new transport hub, but everybody already knows that F arringdon, the Crossrail poster child, has been consistently promoted as one of the areas set to benefit the most. An East West Crossrail service will supplement an upgraded North South hameslink meaning Farringdon will become exceedingly well connected not only to the rest of London but also to much of the South East. With Crossrail projected by many to have a significant impact on residential prices in Farringdon, many would-be sellers have delayed the decision. he result has been he market in Whitechapel is in full swing with Crossrail driving it along S AVG. PRICE FLA 850,000 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - 2,000,000 AVG. PRICE FLA 450,000 AVG. PRICE HOUSE - 850,000 itting on the fringe of the city less than 3.5 miles from Charing Cross, Whitechapel represents Crossrail s dividing point. From Whitechapel trains head North East to Shenfield and South East to Abbey Wood. As a result, Whitechapel will be the only station outside Zone One serviced by 24 trains per hour. Despite Whitechapel s relatively central location it is poorly connected both westwards to Central London and eastwards to Canary Wharf. he area closest to the station has underperformed in both activity and price growth. his could be attributed in part to the development work around the station causing disruption. Although transactions grew by 30 per cent within 500 metres in the station in 2013 they are still below 2009 levels. he strong price performance within a mile of the station is driven by market forces in Prime Central London rather than impact of Crossrail. A mile radius around Bond Street station includes Mayfair, Marylebone, Soho, St James and the South end of Regent s Park. a collapse in the number of transactions. he number of sales within 500m of the Farringdon station has fallen 15 per cent from 2009, itself the lowest year on record since he impact in the short to medium term has been a degree of uplift in house prices. Post 2018, once Crossrail is operational, the number of sellers may increase as households look to realise house price gains. A substantial number of sellers coming to the market could certainly slow down what would otherwise be a steady growth in value in the area. Housing markets in the 500 metres area surrounding Whitechapel station are diverse. One in two properties are owned by a Local Authority or Housing Association. Despite a significant presence by a number of national house builders, new property still only accounts for only 10 per cent of sales. Whitechapel has however seen the cost of a new build property rise at the fastest rate in London. Average new build prices increased 50 per cent over the last 12 months, as house builders increasingly target the top end of the market. HPI 30% -4% 9% 7% 11% 21% HPI 0% 38% 18% 79% 12% 46% -13% -15% 12% 20% -6% 16% HPI 18% 48% 15% 53% 12% 48% 18% 10% HPI HPI 74% 105% 30% 83% HPI 9% 30% 8% 28% 9% 18% 3,789 30, ,772 WESMINSER 4,302 40,100 93,556 ISLINGON 6,305 48, ,257 OWER HAMLES 14/15

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