Experiments in Complex Stands
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1 Experiments in Complex Stands Valerie LeMay, Craig Farnden and Peter Marshall March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 1
2 The Challenge Design an experiment based on an objective Constraints: Must have three blocks; treatment is a cutting pattern; two or three treatments Variations, then: Variables of interest Treatments applied Numbers of replicates (i.e., experimental units) Subsampling of experimental units Data: 50 m X 800 m area, mixed species, unevenaged, measured in 1985, 1993 and 001 Assumed: There is an interest in testing for a treatment effect as well as getting an estimate of this effect March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall
3 The Experimental Design: Generalized RCB Block 1 Block Block 3 C TR1 TR1 TR1 TR TR TR C TR C TR1 C TR1 TR C TR C TR1 March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 3
4 Analysis of Variance (n=replicates) Source Df MS Effect F test Block MS BL Random Treatment MS TR Fixed MS TR / MS BL X TR Block X Treatment 4 MS BL X TR Random Replicates nested in BL X TR 3 X 3 X (n-1) MS E Random Total March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 4
5 Analysis of Variance (m=subsamples) Source Df MS Effect F test Block MS BL Random Treatment MS TR Fixed MS TR / MS BL X TR Block X Treatment Replicates nested in BL X TR Samples 4 MS BL X TR Random 3 X 3 X (n-1) MS E Random 3 X 3 X n X (m-1) MS SE Random Total March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 5
6 Generalized RCB: Expected Values J=#blocks, n=#replicates σ E[MS TR ]= σ EE E[MS BL X TR ]= E[MS E ]= EE σ + n σ K B T + Jn τ k ( K k = 1 + σ EE n B T 1) If no Block by Treatment interaction, MS E can be used in the F-test March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 6
7 E[MS TR ]= E[MS BL X TR ]= E[MS E ]= Generalized RCB with subsampling: Expected Values J=#blocks, n=#replicates, m=#subsamples σ SE + mσ σ SE σ SE + mσ EE K EE + nmσ BLK TR + Jnm τ k ( K k= 1 m σ EE + nm BLK TR + σ Often experimental units are comprised of a number of individuals (e.g. trees) Subsamples within experimental units increase both the numerator and denominator of the F- test March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 7 1)
8 Sizes of Experimental Units and Numbers of Subsampling Units As the size of the experimental unit increases, the variance of experimental units decreases to a minimum for the treatment As the number of subsamples per experimental unit increases and/or the size of subsamples increases, the variance of the experimental units decreases to the same value as when the entire experimental unit is measured March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 8
9 Power Analysis Need a good estimate of variance among experimental units within treatments and blocks for a given size of experimental unit Vary the number of replicates (n) & size of the effect to obtain power Choose an experimental unit size and number of replicates based on power and cost This choice will likely vary among variables of interest March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 9
10 Particular Issues with Complex Stands When spatial/structural complexity is increased via cutting, there will be very high variability among small-size experimental units within a specific treatment For very complex stands will need large experimental units and/or many units to obtain an acceptable level of power There are many possible treatments can only include a few in the experiment likely need to include the extremes March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 10
11 Simulated Experiment Objective: To assess the results of two treatments relative to a control in terms of average tree size Other variables of interest: Diameter and height growth rates Average tree size Volume per ha Tree regeneration Understory vegetation March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 11
12 Treatments Simulated Control: No cutting Wildlife Habitat (WH): Remove trees in regularly spaced 0 X 0 m patches to permit understory vegetation regrowth to enhance sites for wildlife Growth Release (GR): Remove 5% of trees randomly to promote growth of residual stems March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 1
13 Issues in Choosing Treatments Wildlife Habitat (WH): Regular patches vs. randomly located patches? Patches plus removal of stems in patches to promote growth response? Growth Release (GR): What level of removal? Which trees? Even species & size targeted? Recovery (value) of removed stems? March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 13
14 Process Used to Assess Power 1. Simulate the treatment over the entire study area. Break each area into experimental units 3. Calculate the variance between experimental units within a treatment 4. Use this as the experimental unit variance (within a block and treatment) 5. Forecasted changes in variance discussed but not explicitly simulated, since WH requires a spatially explicit model. March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 14
15 Control, 1985 March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 15
16 GR, 1985 March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 16
17 WH,1985 March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 17
18 C or GR K function, 1985 K function, WH K(r) border theo K(r) border theo r (m) r (m) March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 18
19 C or GR March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 19
20 Post-Cutting Statistics C WH GR DBH Mean St. Dev Volume/ ha Volume/ Tree Mean Mean March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 0
21 What Variances Can We Expect? Divided each simulated treatment into experimental units: 40 X 40m (N=10); 80 X 80 m (N= 30) Calculated the variance between all possible plots for mean dbh (i.e., variance among cell means) St.Dev. 40 X 40 m: 3.1 (C); 5.3 (WH); 3. (GR) St.Dev. 80 X 80 m: 1.5 (C);.8 (WH); 1.6 (GR) Changes in time: might expect these to increase, particularly for WH. May become heteroscedastic between treatments over time March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 1
22 Simulated Power Analysis Fix α =0.05 Size of differences for practical importance Mean dbh: 5 cm Other Variables (not done): Dbh Increment: 0.5 cm Volume/ha: 0 m 3 /ha Understory vegetation: 30% increase in desirable species Standard deviation of experimental units in each block X treatment: Assumed no block by treatment interaction March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall
23 n=3 n=8 March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 3
24 Overall Comments What about using a model to assess outcomes instead? Models can be used to assess a wider range of treatments If already available, this is a cheap option Downside: Really need a spatially explicit, process model? Models have unknown accuracy Still need experiments to build models for: 1) data and ) knowledge of the processes Very hard to get estimates of treatments effects and accuracies of those affects March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 4
25 What is important in experiments in complex stands? Treatments: Should be extremes? Very large experimental units are needed: For some variables, such as spatial patterns For spatially variable treatments (e.g., WH) Should do power analysis via assumed variances of experimental units Complexity of the design: For repeated measures, better to keep this simple Use covariates to reduce between experimental unit variability Consider using covariates instead of using blocks, since blocks do not explicitly help in examining the process of why variation occurs? March 8 to April 3, 009 LeMay, Farnden, Marshall 5
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