C23: NFC Mobile Payment Ecosystem & Business Model. Jane Cloninger Director

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1 C23: NFC Mobile Payment Ecosystem & Business Model Jane Cloninger Director

2 The mobile phone is the most successful communication device in history Global mobile subscribers (millions) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Over a million new subscribers a day Many developed countries over 100% penetration Rising fast in developing countries 615 million mobile wallets in 2011, growing to 1.4 B by billion subscribers 2 billion subscribers Estimated 4.5 billion subscribers 4 billion subscribers Actual Projected Data source: Wireless Intelligence 1

3 Mobile financial services are seen to bring immediate benefits to stakeholders ADVANCED PAYMENTS REPORT % of respondents in EDC s 2009 APR Survey believe that MFS are essential for customer retention and competitive differentiation 80% of respondents agree that the mobile channel will be the preferred channel for urgent financial transactions 74% agree that the mobile channel will be the primary channel for all financial transactions for younger consumers For mobile proximity payments 78% think that such payments will prove highly effective in displacing cash and cheques 87% indicated that mobile remote payments bring significant and immediate opportunities in specific merchant sectors such as parking etc. Source: Advanced Payment Survey undertaken jointly by Edgar, Dunn & Co. and Card and Mobile Payments Magazine April

4 Mobile proximity payments enable contactless payments at a point of sale (POS) using mobile phones Mobile Proximity Payments Contactless or Proximity payments Consensus NFC technology z Transactions are performed by placing the mobile handset next to receiver in-store. Communication is established between the NFC enabled handset and the POS terminal. The payment transaction is captured at the terminal, authorized and processed as a regular payment transaction Contactless payment systems being trialed/rolled-out across the globe and have particular application in high-speed low-value payments (such as mass-transit and convenience stores) Multiple entities involved in the mobile NFC payment value chain Images: Nokia 6131 NFC 3

5 Proximity payments are set to achieve significant growth in developed markets PROXIMITY PAYMENTS FORECASTS Growth Forecasts % of Subscribers Using Mobile Proximity Payments % Total Subscribers 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Developing Developed m Subscribers in 2012 Source: EDC GSMA Study 4

6 But when will NFC happen? Remote Mobile Payments Mobile Top-Up Anticipated Evolution of Mobile Payments P2P/ Remittances Mobile Bill Payment Physical Mobile Payments Existing offerings Evolving offerings 5

7 Consensus is growing that mobile payments will be a reality in the short to medium term Will mobile payments reach critical mass? Yes 82% No 18% Yes 83% No 17% Yes 89% No 11% 2006 How long will it take? Years 30% 20% 6% 5-10 years 51% 51% 40% 2-5 Years 17% 29% 44% 0-2 Years 2% 1% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: EDC MPW Study 6

8 The benefits of NFC technology reach beyond proximity payments Ticketing. NFC enabled phones will allow consumers to download ticketing mobile tickets for trains, busses, metro, ferries, and flights Information Access. Posters with smart tags are able to load information when a customer taps their phone without the need for customers to remember a website and log on later or try keying in the URL. No mistakes Mobile Marketing and Promotion. Customers can download discount vouchers and other items made available by retailers. Image Source: Ed Merritt at blog WorldPress.com 7

9 Mobile proximity payments are set to displace cash and cheque transactions Cash and check substitution Customer retention/ service differentiator Opportunity for retailers to increase revenues Profit opportunity for mobile operators KEY BENEFITS MOBILE PROXIMITY PAYMENTS Profit opportunity for banks Increase in average transaction value (halo effect) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Agree On the Fence Disagree Source: Advanced Payment Survey undertaken jointly by Edgar, Dunn & Co. and Card and Mobile Payments magazine April

10 Bank accounts and payment/prepaid cards are considered to be most suitable for mobile payments Payment cards Prepaid cards Bank accounts Prepaid accounts (proprietary e.g., PayPal) Digital currency Operator bill % Respondents Indicating the Suitability of a Payment Instrument to Mobile Payments 30% 28% 52% 61% 61% 72% Payment Cards Credit, charge, debit, prepaid Bank Account Payments Credit Transfers, Direct Debits 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Source: Advanced Payment Survey undertaken jointly by Edgar, Dunn & Co. and Card and Mobile Payments Magazine April

11 Lack of enabling infrastructure is a key hurdle in reaching critical mass for mobile proximity payments KEY ISSUES MOBILE PROXIMITY PAYMENTS Lack of POS Infrastructure Lack of NFC enabled phones Business model for all Lack of stakeholder cooperation Lack of consumer demand Regulatory & compliance issues 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% % Respondents Source: Advanced Payment Survey undertaken jointly by Edgar, Dunn & Co. and Card and Mobile Payments Magazine April Up to 3 selections allowed for this survey question 10

12 There is now broad consensus around the NFC business architecture with a Trusted Services Manager (TSM) undertaking application management NFC ECO SYSTEM Handset Manufacturer Courier service UICC Manufacturer MNO IC chip Manufacturer Card Manufacturer Card Issuing Bank Customer Secure Element TSM Card Issuing Bank Customer Payment solution company Payment solution company Terminal/ reader manufacturer Acquirer Merchants Terminal/ reader manufacturer Acquirer Merchants Payment Card POS Payment Stakeholder Schematic Mobile POS Payment Stakeholder Schematic Source: GSMA Pay-Buy-Mobile 11

13 Third-party providers are believed to be most appropriate third-party provider for over-the-air downloads % of Responses Third Parties 53% Mobile Carriers 24% Banks Card Associations 8% 11% Other 4% *Other includes: Industry consortiums Question: Who should be the third-party provider for OTA (Over-the-Air) downloads? Source: EDC MPW Study 12

14 Stakeholders will derive significant direct and indirect benefits from proximity payments STAKEHOLDER BENEFITS AND BUSINESS CASE DRIVERS Direct Revenues Operators Rental or Per Transaction Fees Banks Interchange Fee Indirect Benefits Reduced Churn Halo Effect Key Costs Handset Rental or Per Transaction Fee 13

15 Respondents believe that the most likely scenario for proximity payments is an inter-entity transaction-based pricing model 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% FEE STRUCTURE 20% 10% 0% Certainly Will Not Most Likely Will Not 50/50 Chance Likely Certainly Will Rental of SIM space based on Usage Volumes Rental of SIM Space Based on number of Accounts Hybrid: Per Transaction Charge plus Percentage of Transaction Value Percentage of Transaction Value Per Transaction Charge Source: EDC GSMA Study 14

16 Interim approaches will be necessary to move forward Barcodes RFID Stickers Voice Channel Source: Margento 15

17 * * * SUMMARY NFC offers unprecedented opportunities in payments as well as in ticketing, venue access, marketing and promotions, information access etc. Multiple trials have provided very positive results While NFC offers the right way forward there has been little progress in terms of roll outs beyond small pilots There are key issues that will further delay the commercial deployment of NFC: Operator Business Case Handset availability Roll out of POS infrastructure Overall business model for all stakeholders These issues are delaying the deployment of NFC. Some interim technologies have been suggested. However, for NFC to succeed we need to go beyond trials stakeholders should commit to rollouts 16