UNIVERSITY of TORONTO. Faculty of Arts and Science

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1 UNIVERSITY of TORONTO Faculty of Arts and Science AUGUST 2005 EXAMINATION AT245HS uration - 3 hours Examination Aids: Non-programmable or SOA-approved calculator. Instruction:. There are 27 equally weighted questions on 8 pages. Please check if you have all the pages before proceeding. 2. o not spend too much time on one single question. Page of

2 . 2. A An insurance company estimates that 40% of policyholders who have only an auto policy will renew next year and 60% of policyholders who have only a homeowners policy will renew next year. The company estimates that 80% of policyholders who have both an auto and a homeowner s policy will renew at least one of those policies next year. ompany records shows that 65% of policyholders have an auto policy, 50% of policyholders have a homeowner s policy, and 5% of policyholders have both an auto and a homeowner s policy. Using the company s estimates, calculate the percentage of policyholders that will renew at least one policy next year. A) 20 B) 29 ) 4 ) 53 E) 70 An insurance company examines its pool of auto insurance customers and gathers the following information: i. All customers insure at least one car ii. 64% of the customers insure more than one car iii. 20% of the customers insure a sports car iv. Of those who insure more than one car, 5% insure a sports car. What is the probability that a randomly selected customer insures exactly one car, and the car is a sport car? A) 0.0 B) 0.02 ) 0.03 ) 0.04 E) None is correct An insurer offers a health plan to the employees of a large company. As part of this plan, the individual employees may choose exactly two of the supplementary coverages, A, B, and, or they may choose no supplementary coverage. The proportions of the company s employees that choose coverages A, B and are 4, 3, and 5 2, respectively. etermine the probability that a randomly chosen employee will choose no supplementary coverage. A) 0 B) ) 2 ) E) 7 9 An insurance company pays hospital claims. The number of claims that include emergency room or operating room charges is 85% of the total number of claims. The Page 2 of 2

3 5. 6. B 7. number of claims that do not include emergency room charges is 25% of the total number of claims. The occurrence of emergency room charges is independent of the occurrence of operating room charges no hospital claims. alculate the probability that a claim submitted to the insurance company includes operating room charges. A) 0.0 B) 0.20 ) 0.25 ) 0.40 E) 0.80 An insurance company issues life insurance policies in three separate categories: standard, preferred, and ultra-preferred. Of the company s policyholders, 50% are standard, 40% are preferred, and 0% are ultra-preferred. Each standard policyholder has probability 0.0 of dying in the next year, each preferred policyholder has probability of dying in the next year, and each ultra-preferred policyholder has probability 0.00 of dying in the next year. A policyholder dies in the next year. What is the probability that the deceased policyholder was ultra-preferred? A) B) 0.00 ) ) 0.04 E) Upon arrival at a hospital s emergency room, patients are categorized according to their condition as critical, serious, or stable. In the past year: i. 0% of the emergency room patients were critical; ii. 30% of the emergency room patients were serious; iii. the rest of the emergency room patients were stable; iv. 40% of the critical patients died v. 0% of the serious patients died; vi. % of the stable patients died. Given that a patient survived, what is the probability that the patient was categorized as serious upon arrival? A) 0.06 B) 0.29 ) 0.30 ) 0.39 E) 0.64 The number of days that elapse between the beginning of a calendar year and the moment a high-risk driver is involved in an accident is exponentially distributed. An insurance company expects that 30% of high-risk drivers will be involved in an accident during the first 50 days of a calendar year. What portion of high-risk drivers is expected to be involved in an accident during the first Page 3 of 3

4 E days of a calendar year? A) 0.53 B) ) ) E) A large pool of adults earning their first driver s license includes 50% low-risk drivers, 30% moderate-risk drivers, and 20% high-risk drivers. Because these drivers have no prior driving record, an insurance company considers each driver to be randomly selected form the pool. This month, the insurance company writes 4 new policies for adults earning their first driver s license. What is the probability that these 4 will contain at least two more high-risk drivers than low-risk drivers? A) B) 0.02 ) 0.08 ) E) The lifetime of a machine part has a continuous distribution on the interval (0, 40) with probability density function f, where f(x) is proportional to (0 + x) -2. What is the probability that the lifetime of the machine part is less than 5? A) 0.03 B) 0.3 ) 0.42 ) 0.58 E) 0.97 A study is being conducted in which the health of two independent groups of ten policyholders is being monitored over a one-year period of time. Individual participants in the study drop out before the end of the study with probability 0.2 independently of the other participants. What is the probability that at least 9 participants complete the study in one of the two groups, but not in both groups? A) B) 0.92 ) ) E) Let X be a continuous random variable with density function alculate the expected value of X. A) 5 B) x 2 x 4 f (x) = 0 0 otherwise 3 5 ) ) 28 5 E) 2 5 A device that continuously measures and records seismic activities is placed in a remote region. The time, T, to failure of this device is exponentially distributed with mean 3 years. Since the device will not be monitored during its first two years of service, the time Page 4 of 4

5 to discovery of its failure is X = max(t, 2). etermine the expected value of X. A) e6 B) 2 2e e ) 3 3 ) 2 + 3e E) 5 3. A 4. A probability distribution of the claim sizes for an auto insurance policy is given in the table below: laim Size Probability What percentage of the claims is within one standard deviation of the mean claim size? A) 45% B) 55% ) 68% ) 85% E) 00% A company agrees to accept the highest of four sealed bids on a property. The four bids are regards as four independent random variables with common cumulative distribution function: F(x) = 2 ( + sin x) 3 2 x Which of the following represents the expected value of the accepted bid? A) B) ) ) E) x cos xdx 6 ( + sin x)4 dx 6 x( + sin x) 4 dx 4 x cos x( + sin x)3 dx 4 cos x( + sin x)3 dx 5. E An investment accounts earns an annual interest rate R that follows a uniform distribution on the interval (0.04, 0.08). The value of a 0,000 initial investment in this account after one year is given by V = 0,000e R. etermine the cumulative distribution function F(v) of V for values of v satisfying 0 < F(v) <. A) 0000ev/ B) 25e v/ ) v ) 25 v v E) 25 ln Let T denote the time in minutes for a customer service representative to respond to 0 Page 5 of 5

6 E telephone inquires. T is uniformly distributed on the interval with end-points 8 and 2 minutes. Let R denote the average rate, in customers per minute, at which the representative responds to inquiries. 7. A Which of the following is the density function of the random variable R on the interval 0 2,0 8 A) 2 5 B) 3 r ) 3r 5ln(r) 2 ) 0 r 2 E) 5 2r 2 laim amounts for wind damage to insured homes are independent random variables with common density function: 3 x > f (x) = x 4, where x is the amount of a claim in thousands. 0 otherwise Suppose 3 such claims will be made. What is the expected value of the largest of the three claims? A) 2,025 B) 2,700 ) 3,232 ) 3,375 E) 4, xy 0 x, x y 2x E f (x, y) = 3 0 otherwise alculate the conditional expectation of Y, given X = 0.5 A) 2 B) 2 3 ) 3 4 ) 5 7 E) For a group of car insurance policies, a loss X is assumed to be a random variable whose distribution follows the density function: f (x) = 8,000,000 x > 0 (x + 2,000) 3 If no deductible amount is applied to a loss, the expected number of claims paid in the next year is 2,500. alculate the deductible amount d to be applied to each loss that would reduce the expected NUMBER of losses in the next year by 36%. A) 00 B) 250 ) 400 ) 500 E),000 Page 6 of 6

7 E 24. B For claims involving two cars, an auto insurance policy will pay for the damage to both the policyholder s car and the other car involved in a collision, if the policyholder is responsible. The damage (in thousands) to the policyholder s car, X, is uniformly distributed on the interval [, 4]. Given that X = k, the damage to the other car follows a uniform distribution on the interval [k 0.5, k + 2.5]. alculate the expected total cost to the insurer for an accident that is the responsibility of one of their policyholders. A) 5.0 B) 5.5 ) 6.0 ) 6.5 E) 7.0 The owner of a car purchases insurance against collision damage to his vehicle. If a collision occurs, the repair cost is uniformly distributed on the interval [500, 5000]. The policy limits repair reimbursements up to 2,500 per collision. Given that a collision occurs, calculate the mean plus two standard deviations for the insurance reimbursement. A) 2,056 B) 2,650 ) 3,33 ) 3,478 E) 3,652 Let X and Y denote the values of two stocks at the end of a five-year period. X is uniformly distributed on the interval (0, 2). Given X = k, Y is uniformly distributed on the interval (0, k). etermine covariance of X and Y according to this model. A) 0 B) 4 ) 6 ) 2 E) 24 The time (in days) until failure of a certain electronic device follows the probability density function: f (t) = 20, where t > 20 and >. t + alculate the probability that the device will fail within 30 days if the mean failure time is 30 days. A) B) ) ) E) A model for the lifetime of a new small business gives the probability of failure in the n th month as n- for n =, 2, 3,. etermine the largest number of whole months after which there is at least a 5% chance that a new small business will still be operating. A) 2 B) 3 ) 4 ) 5 E) 6 Page 7 of 7

8 25. B B Let X and Y be continuous random variables with joint density function: f (x, y) = 5y x2 y x 0 otherwise alculate Pr(Y 0.25) A) 0.0 B) 0. ) 0.2 ) 0.3 E) 0.4 An insurance policy reimburses a loss up to a benefit limit of 0. The policyholder s loss X follows a distribution with density function: 2 x > f (x) = x 3 0 otherwise What is the expected value of the BENEFIT paid under this insurance policy? A).0 B).3 ).8 ).9 E) 2.0 An actuary determines that the claim size for a certain class of accidents is a random variable X with moment generating function: M X (t) = ( 2500t) 4 etermine the standard deviation for the claim size for this class of accident. A),340 B) 5,000 ) 8,660 ) 0,000 E),80 Page 8 of 8