Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service

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1 Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service Integrated Risk Modelling 2013/14

2 Contents Contents... 1 Introduction... 2 Our Legal Responsibilities... 2 Integrated Risk Management... 3 Integrated Risk Assessment Overview... 4 Stage 1 - Identifying Risks... 5 Stage 2 - Estimating Risk Levels... 8 Stage 3 - Comparing Options Stage 4 - Deciding on Targets and Response Time Standards Appendix A: Risk Based Targeting of Prevention Activities Appendix B: GMFRS Response Time Standards Glossary

3 Introduction Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service (GMFRS) purpose is to protect and improve the quality of lives of everyone living, working and visiting Greater Manchester. This document has been produced to illustrate how we assess the likelihood of fire and rescue related incidents within Greater Manchester. It also provides a summary of how this information is used to identify high risk geographic areas, and subsequently inform the prevention, protection and response activities we deploy to reduce this risk. Whilst the methodology to identify risk is still based on the occurrence of dwelling fires and the casualties involved, GMFRS has recently developed the approach to incorporate fire incidents which occur in non-domestic buildings. This supports the targeting of fire safety enforcement activities and allows for a more comprehensive assessment of risk in any given area. We now also include data from the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) as this reflects our knowledge of factors that contribute to the likelihood of fires and other emergencies, allowing the model to be more predictive of risk. Our Legal Responsibilities The primary duties of the Fire and Rescue Authority are contained in The Fire and Rescue Services Act They require the provision, training and equipping of the Service to undertake: Fire fighting Protection of people and property from fire Fire safety promotion Road traffic collision rescues Other emergency responses to civil emergencies The Authority also plays a major role in wider civil protection and resilience arrangements and ensuring there is an integrated approach to handling larger civil emergencies. The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 defines the roles and responsibilities of the Fire and Rescue Authority in this regard, alongside those of other regional public bodies, including: police, ambulance, local authorities and some private sector organisations; for example, utility companies. The Authority is also responsible for: Ensuring that buildings remain safe from fire by enforcing the Regulatory Reform (Fire Safety) Order The safe operation of petrol stations through the Petroleum (Consolidation) Act Licensing the storage of explosives (including fireworks) through the Manufacture and Storage of Explosives Regulations The production and testing of off site COMAH plans through the Control of Major Accident Hazards Regulations 1999 (amended 2005). Working with local partners to ensure preparedness for radiation and pipeline incidents (Radiation (Emergency Preparedness and Public Information) Regulations 2001 & Pipeline Safety Regulations 1996). 2

4 In addition to these statutory obligations, the Authority is also required to have due regard to the Fire and Rescue National Framework for England which sets out the Government s priorities and objectives for fire and rescue authorities. The priorities within the latest, 2012 National Framework include: Identifying and assessing the full range of foreseeable fire and rescue related risks within Greater Manchester (GM) and making provision for prevention and protection activities and to respond to incidents appropriately. Working in partnership with communities and a wide range of partners locally and nationally to deliver the Service. Being accountable to communities for the Service we provide. Responding to emergencies is selfevidently a reactive activity and although the Service must be able to provide this response extremely well, we also endeavour to do everything within our span of control to target our resources in preventing the need for a response in the first instance. Understanding risk is crucial to achieving this. Our Prevention, Protection and Operational Response Strategies provide further detail about how the risks we face are changing and how the Service is developing its approaches not only to ensure we have appropriate resources available to respond to incidents, but also, as far as possible, prevent them from occurring at all. Whilst providing the capacity to respond to foreseeable fire and fire related incidents across our region is a statutory requirement and to many, the core purpose of a Fire and Rescue Service, the role of the Service is much broader than simply putting out fires. Integrated Risk Management The Government s expectations of fire and rescue authorities to manage their responsibilities in an integrated way are clearly expressed in the Fire and Rescue National Framework for England. Integrated risk management was first established as a concept within fire and rescue services in 2003, and sets out to ensure that all the services delivered by fire and rescue services align to reduce fire and rescue related risks that could affect the community. Integrated risk management can be said to focus on hazard risks to communities, these are risk events that can only result in negative outcomes, and include events such as fires causing death, injury and damage, road traffic accidents, flooding and other adverse weather events, the release of hazardous materials affecting people and the environment, and even terrorist attacks. GMFRS combines corporate and integrated risk management to ensure we deliver our core purpose in the most effective way, and whilst integrated risk management largely determines the Service s corporate aims, corporate risk management supports their achievement. Integrated risk management is supported by the use of risk modelling, which is discussed in the following sections. 3

5 Integrated Risk Assessment Overview Risk assessments are based on the best available evidence and take account of previous incident trends. GMFRS s Risk Model has four main stages: Figure 1 illustrates this four stage approach and the following sections of this document discuss each stage in more detail. Stage 1 - Identifying Risks Stage 2 - Calculating Risk Levels Stage 3 - Comparing Options Stage 4 - Deciding on Targets & Response Standards Figure 1: Four Stage Approach to Integrated Risk Assessment 4

6 Stage 1 - Identifying Risks We assess the risks to both life and property for which we have statutory responsibility. These statutory risks are defined by the Fire and Rescue Service Act Analysis of the incidents we have statutory responsibility for helps us to identify our predominant or most commonly occurring risks. These risks can readily be identified by a review of historical incidents in Greater Manchester. We have conducted analysis based on the previous three-years of incident data, pertaining to life threatening (or potentially life threatening) fires. This data has been separated into fires in dwellings and fires in commercial and public buildings. Additionally, in order to predict the likelihood of future occurrences of these fires, we have also used IMD. This is a social and economic measure that demonstrates the strongest link to the likely incidence of fire (and consequent injury). Our approach to risk assessment identifies and estimates the predominant risks for which response is required by statute, or needed as an accepted responsibility by GMFRS; and for which prevention and protection activity can reduce those risks. Figure 2 illustrates the data components that are identified as the best indicators of risk. Figure 2: Data Inputs to the Risk Calculation Dwelling Fire Rate Number of dwelling fires / Number of dwellings Dwelling Fire Casualty Rate Number of casualties / Size of Population Non Dwelling Fire Frequency Number of Fires in Commercial & Public Buildings IMD 2010 Score Produced by CLG and updated every three-years 5

7 Incident Types Not included The current risk model doesn t take into consideration major or large incidents. Due to the low volume of incidents of this nature it is difficult to model the likelihood of these incidents occurring. As a result, we have assessed the most appropriate location for our special appliances based on the geography of the County and location of previous incidents. Major Infrastructure Risks The following list provides an overview of risks which have the potential to cause a major incident, major emergency or large scale incident. COMAH sites (23 lower tier and 13 top tier sites across the conurbation) Power networks (e.g. National grid) Road networks (approx. 100 miles of motorway) Rail networks (approx. 200 miles of rail track) Sports stadia Shopping/commercial sites/ Large industrial sites (64,000 commercial and Industrial risks) International Airport Oil terminals Major hospitals Telecom networks Major hotels Major waterways and flood basins Major incidents and large fires: defining scenarios to resource and plan for Response time standards are not determined for major incident risks because the risk is uncertain and the scale of response is as important as the time of the response. The risk assessment therefore is used to indicate which types of major incidents should be planned for, the level of need for resourcing resilience and the type of resources needed. In some cases major incident risks may be localised, in which case this may influence the location of any specialist resource. For each type of major incident the composition and magnitude of resources will be based on a defined scenario. The scenario would reflect the scale of incident that can reasonably be foreseen in Greater Manchester. As a guideline, a major response that supports rescue of people and containment of the incident within one hour is planned for singular events, such as train collisions. For example, the assessment may lead to a proposal that for protracted incidents, such as flooding, the response should plan to simultaneously rescue people from two to three locations as soon as possible whilst also assisting hundreds of people to evacuate from multiple locations within two hours. This requires specific contingency planning and preparation. 6

8 Major Incident Risk Guidelines The Civil Contingencies Secretariat 1 has provided guidance on the rating of civil contingencies. Furthermore, definitions of the risk ratings have been provided and can be used to guide decisions on the level of preparation and resources for each level of risk. Complementary Risk Modelling As previously mentioned, the risk model largely takes into consideration the risk to human life resulting from dwelling and commercial building fires. This is reflective of the high proportion of calls for service that we receive and the primacy of assessing life risk incidents. The risk modelling described in Stage 1 doesn t include some common incident types, such as road traffic collisions (RTCs), special service calls and secondary fires. Instead, we undertake specific risk modelling using historical incident data and specialist software to determine areas of higher risk for each incident type. As a result this ensures our prevention, protection and response activities are appropriately allocated / resourced. Further information about the range of other risk modelling can be found in the current version of our Corporate Plan

9 Stage 2 - Estimating Risk Levels Combining Data Inputs As previously detailed, the predominant risks in GMFRS have been identified via the review of historic data and are: Dwelling fires and the associated risk of casualties; Economic loss from fires in other buildings. We geographically assign these incidents to the Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) in which they occur in order to be able to calculate area specific risk. LSOAs each contain approximately the same number of households and have been selected as a suitable level of geography as they also contain a sufficient number of incidents to allow for robust analysis and risk grading. Within these areas we can identify pockets of at risk communities, and subsequently target resources. Furthermore, this level of geography is also compatible with IMD. During this stage we assess the frequency of incidents and their magnitude in terms of the number of resulting casualties. Because the frequency of these incidents varies from one (LSOA) area to another, approaching it in this way allows our prevention and protection activity to be better targeted. (See Appendix A) We utilise a standard approach, including a degree of sensitivity analysis, to calculate the risk in each LSOA. This approach is also adopted by other Fire and Rescue Services in the North West. Figure 3 illustrates the way in which the approach combines the data inputs. Figure 3: Combination of Data Inputs to Calculate Risk Dwelling Fire Rate Dwelling Fire Casualty Rate (x4) Non Dwelling Fire Rate IMD (x2) = Final Risk Score Assigning Risk Categories Once the data inputs have been combined, the total risk score for each LSOA is then banded into one of four categories using a statistical approach of standard deviation. These risk categories inform the priority in which response, prevention and protection resources will be allocated. There are four risk categories, as depicted in figure 4. Figure 4: LSOA Risk Bandings Risk Score Risk Grading 59+ Risk Category Risk Category Risk Category 3 20 and Below Risk Category 4 8

10 Risk Mapping As well as producing risk categories, this information can be used to produce a geographical risk map by LSOA and is illustrated in figure 5. Figure 5: GMFRS Risk Map 2013/14 9

11 Stage 3 - Comparing Options Having estimated our risks we evaluate options to address them. This comparison assesses the benefits of different prevention and protection activity to determine how best to integrate the use of all of our resources to deliver the greatest benefit, whilst at the same time offering value for money and being practical. This requires consideration of the impact of each intervention (prevention, protection and response) along with resource levels. We do this by assessing risk at an LSOA level which allows us to readily determine where and to what extent we need to focus our HSC activity, campaigns (both at a corporate and local level) and initiatives. The level, type and distribution of our prevention, protection and response resources will aim to reduce risk as low as reasonably practicable by utilisation of the resources available to GMFRS, as well as those that may be deployed by engaging in partnership with others. These activities will be applied in such a manner as to be proportionate to the identified risk. The highest risks will attract the highest priority. The following key principles are taken into consideration when determining the best option: Preventing an incident is the first option. We will determine community safety priorities including community fire safety work delivered by our own staff and in partnership with other agencies. Risk category one and two LSOAs will be prioritised for targeted prevention and protection activity as part of this integrated approach. public buildings as well as advice to owners. Risk category one and two LSOAs will inform the inspection programme for fire safety enforcements. Response remains an element of our risk model. A proportionate emergency response standard will be determined in relation to the other risk control measures we will employ. Evaluation Approach When considering our approach for a locality we consider the options of prevention, protection and emergency response, and combinations of these. It is also important to consider: Risk levels and how they compare to guidelines on public safety and civil contingency resilience. Value for money - how much benefit may be achieved by delivering a particular strategy and level of resource. The level of overall funding available to GMFRS and how best to allocate finite resources to reduce risk in each locality. Resilience considerations and professional judgement. For example, workloads may influence the type of crewing needed at a station. Effectiveness of HSCs - We will continue to assess the impact of HSCs on reducing dwelling fire risk within Greater Manchester. Protecting people through better fire detection and means of escape is the second option. This may be achieved by inspection and enforcement of fire safety legislation applied to commercial and 10

12 Stage 4 - Deciding on Targets and Response Time Standards Emergency Response Times Response time standards are based upon the risk category of each LSOA. Figure 6 illustrates our current response times that are reflective of the risk category and will have the maximum impact in terms of reducing loss of life and property. The response time standards are measured for all incidents that pose the predominant risk to life or significant economic loss. Response time standards are categorised as category one, two, three and four. As time is the critical factor we also set targets and standards for dealing with 999 calls and for turnout of the appliances (See Appendix B). Resourcing and performance targets are supported by LSOA and locality specific risk information. Having determined the risk in each LSOA and considered the varying impacts of different levels of prevention or protection activity we make decisions for each locality about: the optimum prevention activity; the optimum protection activity; the optimum response standard. This enables us to determine how best to integrate our approach to deliver greatest benefit, whilst at the same time offering value for money and being practical. Corporate Resourcing This integrated assessment provides an indication of risk in each locality and for GMFRS as a whole. This can be used to inform corporate level prioritisation of prevention, protection and response across Greater Manchester. Monitoring and Review of Risk Incident rates and outcomes are reviewed annually, which feeds into an iteration of the risk assessment each year to support a process of continued risk assessment and management. This annual review is completed internally for the purpose of monitoring the changing risk levels in the LSOAs. Figure 6: GMFRS Current Response Standards Risk Category Guideline Response Time (on 95% of occasions) Risk Category 1 Less than 5 minutes Risk Category 2 Less than 7 minutes Risk Category 3 Less than 12 minutes Risk Category 4 Less than 17 minutes 11

13 Appendix A: Risk Based Targeting of Prevention Activities We aim to increasingly engage with Greater Manchester s communities, particularly those considered to be hard to reach or at increased risk of fire. This is with a view to inform and educate people as to how to reduce the risk of fires and other emergencies. In addition to referrals received from our partners and individual requests, we identify households suitable for HSC targeting through the analysis of Mosaic lifestyle data which can indicate increased fire risk and also through performance monitoring of our response standards: Priority HSC Allocation Our current approach to prioritising HSCs involves the use of Mosaic lifestyle data and accidental dwelling fire incidents to identify groups of households that are more likely to be at risk of fire. However, as there are 1.18 million households in Greater Manchester, compared with operational crews capacity to complete HSCs in just 5% of the housing stock, those households considered high risk are ranked based on the duration since they last received a HSC i.e. the longer the timescale the greater the risk. Response Time Performance Standards By monitoring response time standards performance against the risk categories defined in the Risk Model we are able to identify specific households that are in areas that are at risk from fire but that are also in areas where our Emergency Response crews find it difficult to achieve our response standards. Analysis conducted on this response time data helps us to ascertain the location and number of households there are in each of these areas of risk. We aim to reduce the risk to those people that live within these communities through the prioritisation of these households for HSCs to be completed by operational crews. Further information regarding our approach to risk based targeting of prevention activities is provided in the HSC Prioritisation Methodology for GMFRS 2012/13 and also in the Home Safety Strategy. This is then supplemented with the geographical area based risk (identified in the Risk Model 2013/14) to further prioritise our HSC activities. Indeed, as per the Home Safety Strategy, households that meet the aforementioned criteria and are in either category one or two LSOAs are allocated to crews for the completion of a HSC. Whilst those high risk households in category three or four LSOAs are allocated to Community Safety Advisors, who are supported by volunteers. 12

14 Appendix B: GMFRS Response Time Standards 2 GMFRS uses Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to monitor the progress we make to towards achieving our delivery goals. The response time standards sit within the response measures that are monitored throughout the year and published on our website. Measure Answering 999 Emergency Calls Processing 999 Calls Turnout of Appliances Risk Category 1 Risk Category 2 Risk Category 3 Risk Category 4 Non-Emergencies Response Standard 96% of 999 Emergency Calls answered within 7 seconds % 3 of risk to life and property calls answered within 120 seconds The target for turning out wholetime crewed appliances is less than 60 seconds from the time the call has been passed to the station. The target for turning out retained crewed appliances is 5 minutes. We will respond to a life threatening emergency / building fire and aim to arrive in less than 5 minutes on 95% of occasions We will respond to a life threatening emergency / building fire and aim to arrive in less than 7 minutes on 95% of occasions We will respond to a life threatening emergency / building fire and aim to arrive in less than 12 minutes on 95% of occasions We will respond to a life threatening emergency / building fire and aim to arrive in less than 17 minutes on 95% of occasions When we respond to a non-emergency incident we aim to arrive as soon as practicable whilst still observing normal road speed/driving conditions. We treat Automatic Fire Alarms as non-emergencies unless a fire is confirmed by a caller. Outdoor fires are treated as a non-emergency unless a person is reported to be at risk. 2 Response times are from the time the appliance is mobilised to the time of arrival of the first appliance at the location of the incident (i.e. travel time). 3 The target percentage of risk to life and property calls answered within 120 seconds is currently under review. 13

15 Glossary Home Safety Check (HSC). This is a service offered by GMFRS in collaboration with our partners to identify and reduce many risks present in the homes of our most vulnerable people. Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). IMD 2010 provides a relative measure of deprivation at a lower super output area level across England. The domains used to calculate IMD are: income deprivation, employment deprivation, health deprivation and disability, education deprivation, crime deprivation, barriers to housing and services deprivation, and living environment deprivation. Areas are ranked from least deprived to most deprived based on an overall composite measure of the domains. Integrated Risk Management Planning. This is the process of determining how prevention, protection and response activities can be best used to mitigate the impact of risks on communities, in a cost effective way. Large Incidents. These type of incidents can be the sole responsibility of a single emergency service. Such incidents would include a large serious fire (major fires are defined as those requiring the mobilisation of 10 or more fire engines). Lower Super Output Area (LSOA). LSOAs are built from groups of four to six output areas, which were originally created for the Census. LSOAs are automatically generated to be as consistent in population size as possible, each containing an average of 705 households in Greater Manchester. Major Incidents. This is any emergency (including known or suspected acts of terrorism) that requires the implementation of special arrangements by one or all of the emergency services, and will generally include the involvement, either directly or indirectly, of large numbers of people. Under the Civil Contingencies Act it is any event or situation which threatens serious damage to human welfare, environment or security. Mosaic Data. This is a dataset produced by Experian that classifies UK households into 15 groups and is subdivided into 69 types. GMFRS matches this typology information with historic incidents of fire in order to understand household characteristics and behaviours that can increase the risk of fire. Partners. These are organisations with which we share the responsibility for preventing incidents such as Police involvement in detecting and preventing arson, or Local Authority Adult Service Departments to mitigate factors that contribute to higher risk from fire; and in responding to incidents, such as Police and Ambulance Services. Phoenix. Phoenix is a workload model that calculates what happens when fire appliances are removed from service. When an appliance becomes unavailable the incidents that it would have attended have to be passed to the next nearest appliance, this in turn means that this appliance may not be able to attended all the incidents it would have originally, these incidents are passed on to the next nearest appliance. This ripple effect goes out from the centre of the removed appliance affecting every other appliance with a decreasing degree. The Phoenix model measures these effects and displays the results in terms of the effect on overall attendance times. Predominant Risk. This term is used to refer to those public safety incidents which pose a significant risk to life and property and on which we base our resource planning. Prevention. This is defined in the Fire and Rescue Service Act 2004 as the provision of information, publicity & encouragement in respect of the steps to be taken to prevent fires and death or injury by fire. 14

16 Protection. This is defined as the provision of information, publicity and encouragement in respect of the steps to be taken to detect fires and enable escape from fire. Response. This is the provision of emergency response resources for the purpose of extinguishing fire, protecting life and property, rescuing people in the event of Road Traffic Collisions. It includes the resources for receiving emergency calls, mobilising a response, the equipment and firefighters that attend an incident. Risk. In the context of Fire and Rescue Services and integrated risk management planning the term risk is used to refer to the likelihood (frequency) of incidents and their potential outcome (injury and damage). Incidents that are more likely and can cause more injury or damage are high risk. Risk Assessment. This is the process of considering issues such as whether a risk level is high or low, the priority to be awarded to the risk, whether the level of risk is tolerable or not. It does involve a value for money assessment, as defined below. Resilience. This refers to the capacity of the Fire and Rescue Service to sustain an acceptable level of function in the event of an emergency or other major event. Secondary Fires. Any fire started intentionally confined to non-property locations such as derelict buildings, single trees, refuse containers, abandoned vehicles etc. attended by four or fewer fire appliances and which did not involve casualties, rescues or any form of escape. Special Service Calls. These are incidents which the Fire and Rescue Service may not have a statutory duty to respond to, but which might be responded to as a special service. Standard Deviation. This is a statistical technique that tells you how tightly all the risk scores are clustered around the mean in a set of data. Value for Money. This involves consideration of costs, making the most of money spent, and making sure that services meet the needs of communities and authorities' priorities. Road Traffic Collisions (RTC). This is a collision involving one or more vehicles on a road or in a place to which the public have access. 15

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