Contents. About the author. Introduction

Transcription

1 Contents About the author Introduction 1 Retail banks Overview: bank credit analysis and copulas Bank risks Bank risks and returns: the profitability, liquidity and solvency trade-off Credit risk Liquidity risk Interest rate risk Leverage or solvency risk Operational risk Other risks Bank failures Creating stability CAMELS analysis Sources of information Capital adequacy Capital adequacy: principal ratios Market approach Regulatory approach Asset quality Credit risk management Investment and loan portfolio Asset quality: principal ratios Management Management competence Management quality: measurement Principal ratios Management measure Efficiency ratio (Non-interest expense/total income) Management measure Profitability ratios (ROA and ROE) Sources of information on management Direct interviews Market perceptions Peer bank opinions Bank regulators Customers Accounting companies Rating agencies Characteristics of successful bank management Earnings How banks make profits Earnings analysis trail Earnings analysis trail steps Step 1: net interest income Step 2: other income Step 3: operating expenses (overhead expenses) Step 4: provision for loan losses Step 5: income before taxes Step 6: net extraordinary items Step 7: net income

2 Liquidity Depositor confidence Measuring constraints Liquidity factors Types of liquid assets Back-up lines of credit Measuring liquidity levels Liquidity: principal ratios Other ratios Cash flow analysis of banks The statement of cash flows: US GAAP and IFRS comparison Objectives of the statement Statement of cash flows: SFAS No. 95 model Cash and cash equivalents Contents of the statement The direct and indirect methods Guidelines specific to financial institutions Worksheet for preparation of the statement Using the statement Cash flow ratios International Accounting Standard (December 1992 and as further amended) Cash flow statements Presentation of a cash flow statement Operating activities Investing activities Financing activities Net reporting by financial institutions Differences between the SFAS No. 95 and IAS 7 models Case Study 1: Credit Bank: cash flow analysis Other analytical tools and issues Common size financial statements Sensitivity to market risk The flow approach to liquidity measurement Interest rate risk measurement methods Measurement system approaches Gap analysis Example 1: maturity gap analysis Example 2: interest rate gap analysis Simulation analysis Duration analysis Value at risk IFRS and market risk Other market risk factors Limitations of ratio analysis CAMELS summary Appendix 1.1 BIS core principles for effective banking supervision Supervisory powers, responsibilities and functions Prudential regulations and requirements Appendix 1.2 The Basel Pillars Market risk Operational risk Appendix 1.3 Good credit practices Character Capacity Capital Conditions

3 Collateral Character lending Risk concentrations Appendix 1.4 Advanced topics: RAROC Appendix 1.5 Selected rating agencies Appendix 1.6 Market ratios Appendix 1.7 Bank profitability: the DuPont model ROA decomposition PM decomposition AU decomposition The DuPont model: a financial institution application Case study 2: Credit Bank Part 1: DuPont analysis Verification Appendix 1.8 IFRS applications to banks IAS 32 Financial Instruments: Presentation Scope Key definitions Classification as liability or equity Example preference shares Example issuance of fixed monetary amount of equity instruments Example one party has a choice over how an instrument is settled Contingent settlement provisions Puttable instruments and obligations arising on liquidation Classifications of rights issues Compound financial instruments Treasury shares Offsetting Costs of issuing or reacquiring equity instruments Disclosures IFRS 7 Financial Instruments: Disclosures Scope Balance sheet Income statement Other disclosures Accounting policies Hedge accounting Fair value Day 1 profit or loss Qualitative risk disclosures Quantitative risk disclosures Credit risk Liquidity risk Market risk IAS 1 amendment IFRS 9 Financial Instruments (Phase 1: Classification and Measurement) Overview of IFRS Financial Instruments Fair value option 2 Insurance companies Insurance company business model Financial and sovereign debt crisis: lessons learned Scope of insurance business Insurance concepts Types of insurance companies Stock insurers Mutual insurers Lloyd s Associations American Lloyd s Health plans and organisations

4 Agents and brokers Agents Brokers Types of insurance Life insurance Variable life insurance Universal life insurance Property-casualty insurance Health insurance Types of marketing systems Life insurance marketing systems General agency system Managerial (branch office) system Direct-response system Property-casualty insurance marketing systems Independent agency system Exclusive agency system Direct writer Direct-response system Mixed systems Life insurance companies Investment policies Return objectives Risk constraints Liquidity constraints Time horizon constraints Best policy Investment policies of property-casualty insurance companies Return objectives and risk constraint profile Return objectives Risk constraints Liquidity constraints Time horizon Best policy Regulation of insurance companies Maintain insurer solvency Compensate for inadequate consumer knowledge Ensure reasonable rates Make insurance available Specific areas of regulation Formation and licensing of insurers Financial regulation Admitted assets Reserves Surplus Risk-based capital Investments Limitation on expenses Dividend policy Reports and examinations Liquidation of insurers Rate regulation Policy forms Sales practice and consumer protection Asset and liability management Liabilities and capital Assets Risk Portfolio strategy Insurance company insolvency

5 Increased need for bank funds Credit analysis Knowing management and the nature of the life insurer s business Basic tools for credit analysis The difficulty of comparing life insurance companies Risk categories for life insurance companies Investment risk: what to look for Quality of investment assets Poor average yield Policy loans Quoted market values versus original cost Underwriting risk: what to look for Profit margin Change in product mix Lapse rate Profitability Net losses High spending levels Rate of change in premium revenues Other factors Factors affecting surplus Change in the surplus account Reinsurance agreements and non-admitted assets Condition of subsidiaries Cash flow Cash flow deficits Analysing the financial statements of life insurance companies Important factors Property-casualty insurance Consumer lines Commercial lines Credit analysis and primary risks of property-casualty insurers Property-casualty insurance companies interpreting the numbers Basic unpredictability of property-casualty insurance Influence of regulation and statutory accounting IFRS and US GAAP accounting Credit analysis of property-casualty companies Cash flow Premium growth Underwriting experience Underwriting cycles Reinsurance Capital adequacy Investment income Investment holdings Structuring of portfolios Investments in other companies Performance measures Reserving and reserve analysis Other strength and stability factors Liquidity Change in surplus Non-admitted assets and non-insurance subsidiaries Management Ratio analysis Life insurer ratios Growth in net premiums written Investment income/total investments Payments to policyholders/total income Surrenders/premium income

6 Expenses/premium income Investment reserve/premium income Surplus/total assets Property-casualty insurer ratios Growth in net premiums written Net premiums written/gross premiums written Claims ratio: paid losses/earned premiums Total loss ratio Expense ratio: commissions, underwriting and operating expenses/net premiums written Combined ratio: total loss ratio + expense ratio Operating ratio: combined ratio investment income/net premiums written Paid losses/incurred losses Incurred loss ratio: incurred losses/earned premiums Unearned premiums reserve/net premiums written Outstanding claims reserve/net claims incurred Premium solvency ratio: net worth/net premiums written Reserves solvency ratio: outstanding claims reserves/net worth Premiums surplus ratio: net premiums written/net worth Appendix 2.1 Insurance companies and IFRS Financial statement presentation Optional exemptions Mandatory exceptions Appendix 2.2 Sample comparison of insurance companies 3 Investment banks How investment banks make money Types of activities Investment banking Corporate finance and financial engineering Securities trading Mergers and acquisitions Fund and asset management Venture capital Asset securitisation Risk management Market risk Credit risk Operating risk Liquidity risk Other risks Credit analysis of investment banks The statement of financial condition (the balance sheet) Cash and equivalents Customer and broker receivables Financial instruments owned Resale agreements Bank loans Repurchase agreements Payables Trading liabilities Long-term debt and equity The statement of income Ratios Financial statements: a hypothetical example Appendix 3.1 VaR analysis The definition of VaR VaR methodologies Parametric (statistical) analysis (also called the variance/covariance method)

7 Historical analysis Historical simulation analysis Stochastic (Monte Carlo) simulation analysis Stress simulation analysis Problems associated with VaR analysis Applications of VaR for the investment manager Using VaR to help construct more efficient portfolios Use of VaR in performance measurement Summary: VaR versus standard deviation as a measure of risk 4 Finance companies Finance company analysis Types of activity Retail passenger automobile paper Mobile home/trailer financing Revolving consumer instalment credit Second-mortgage loans Example Evaluating consumer credit applications Credit scoring Importance of receivables Business receivables wholesale paper Business receivables retail Consumer receivables Types of debt Liability management Bank loans Money market funds Bonds and other long-term debt financing Equity capital Ratio analysis Preliminary indicators Asset quality ratios Leverage ratios Earnings ratios Risks Credit risk Interest rate risk Liquidity risk Operational risk Foreign exchange risk Finance company balance sheet structure Assets Liabilities and equity Income statement structure Case study: analysis of finance company ratios Consumer finance companies Diversified finance companies Outlook Appendix 4.1 Finance company balance sheet strength Assets quality Asset quality ratios Receivables growth rate and portfolio characteristics Market risk and interest rate risk Value at Risk index Funding/liquidity Capital and leverage Double leverage at the holding company Operating performance Core earnings trends and quality

8 Effective tax rate Individual business line profitability Yields on average assets by niche segments Various costs of funds Overall return and profitability 5 Leasing companies Types of leases Sale and leaseback Operating leases Direct financing leases Leveraged lease Financial statement effects: lessee Analysing the balance sheet Accounting note Receivables Residual values Reserve for losses Investment tax credit Other assets Liabilities Shareholders equity Economics of leasing Analysing the income statement Acquisition income Quality of earnings Residual history Delinquency Extension policy Charge-off policy Gross margins Use of ratios Appendix 5.1 Deferred taxes Deferred tax illustration Appendix 5.2 Accounting for leases: lessor Operating leases Sales-type leases Direct financing leases Example of accounting for a direct financing lease Leveraged leases Disclosure requirements under IAS 17: lessor Appendix 5.3 International Accounting Standard 17 (IAS 17): Leases Background Objective of the proposed revision to IAS 17 Current financial statement presentation Operating lease option Finance lease option Accounting for lessee Lessee recognition of the lease (lessee model) Accounting for lessor Lessor recognition of the lease (lessor model) 6 Investment management companies Investment company Investment policies for investment companies Investment company s balance sheet Cash and cash equivalents Investment securities Receivables Goodwill and intangible assets Long-term debt

9 Equity Investment company s income statement (profit and loss statement) Revenues Operating expenses: underwriting and distribution Performance Mutual fund performance Mutual fund categories Fund credit analysis: sources of information Investment fund financial statements Fund credit analysis: open-end funds Net asset value Evaluating performance Payment of dividends Payment of capital gains distributions Increase in NAV Calculating performance Fund expenses Hedge funds Key characteristics of hedge funds What is a fund of hedge funds? Hedge fund strategies Hedge fund credit analysis Appendix 6.1 GIPS Why is a global standard needed? GIPS vision statement Objectives Overview Scope Historical performance record Compliance Implementing a global standard Basic elements Scope and purpose of verification 7 Pension funds Introduction Investment policies for pension plans Best investment policies for pension funds Credit analysis of pension funds Pension funding contributions Return on assets Benefits Service cost Interest cost Actuarial gains and losses Prior service cost Benefits Quantitative assessment Qualitative assessment