Session 7 A Comparison of U.S. and Canadian Practice: The Economic Loss Expert Witness. Craig A. Allen, FCIA, FCAS Commonwealth Research Group, Inc.

Transcription

1 Session 7 A Comparison of U.S. and Canadian Practice: The Economic Loss Expert Witness Craig A. Allen, FCIA, FCAS Commonwealth Research Group, Inc.

2 A Comparison of U.S. and Canadian Practice, The Economic Loss Expert Witness Focus here is on damages in personal injury and wrongful death Actuaries role in evidence Worklife expectancy Annuity Certain vs. Actuarial Present Value Method ASOP 17 cf. Series 4000, Form 53

3 Actuaries Role in Evidence No U.S. counterpart within actuarial organizations to AE Committee Actuarial expert witnesses are most frequently subject-matter experts on insurance, pensions and actuarial practice Position in the marketplace of economists, accountants cf. actuaries National Association of Forensic Economics (NAFE) Quarterly meetings Publishes Journal of Forensic Economics Promulgates a Statement of Ethical Principles and Principles of Professional Practice for its membersl Fewer than 10 credentialed actuaries, out of 600 members

4 Worklife Expectancy Average number of years that a person will participating in the labour force Expected value that varies by Age Sex Education Current participation in labour force Used as a deterministic value in an annuity certain of lost earnings Some tables are of average years in employment, not labour force participation Implicitly shortens worklife below time to normal retirement age, for multiple contingencies, averaged across the selected population, including: Death Disability Full time child care Retraining, return to school Exit from the labour force due to discouragement

5 Worklife Expectancy Tables Published in the Journal of Forensic Economics by NAFE Authored by Krueger, Ciecka, Skoog All contingencies but death based on BLS statistics, collected by the U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Survey (CPS) a monthly survey of 60,000 households, available to the public on DataFerrett.census.gov CPS returns to same households, and identifies household members allowing a tracking of labour force transitions by individuals Death contingency based on U.S. Life Tables, CDC Markov process based on transitions into and out of the labour force, vs. snapshot participation rate

6 Some Pluses-Minuses of U.S. Worklife Expectancy Tables Markov process allows classification by current labour force participation Simultaneous calibration of multiple contingencies - reduces the extent of double-counting Exception is Death contingency Most tables are of labour force participation needing further adjustment for the unemployment contingency Memory of transition probabilities is only 1 year Transition probabilities are calibrated cross-sectionally, not longitudinally Published as expected values, applied as an annuity certain

7 Annuity Certain vs. Actuarial Present Value Annuity certain widely accepted in the U.S. Worklife expectancy tables list expected values, not probabilities Markov process transitions both out of and into labour force Fewer actuaries in the practice Argument re balance of probabilities in favour of the use of annuity certain for the median life expectancy

8 ASOP 17 cf. Series 4000 Advocacy ASOP 17 Expert Testimony by Actuaries, Section 3.4: Nothing in this standard prohibits the actuary from acting as an advocate. However, acting as an advocate does not relieve the actuary of the responsibility to comply with the Code of Professional Conduct and to use reasonable assumptions and appropriate methods (unless using prescribed or alternative methods or assumptions and so disclosing in accordance with section 3.6). CIA SOP Section The actuary s role as an expert should be to assist the court or other entity in the dispute resolution proceeding in its search for truth and justice, and the actuary should not be an advocate for one side of the matter in dispute.

9 Form 53 Ontario Acknowledgement of Expert s Duty Acknowledges duty to provide opinion evidence that is: fair, objective and non-partisan within expert s area of expertise additional assistance needed by court Survey of NAFE members no such form known in U.S.

10 Ohio Jury Verdict, June 2014 Brain hemorrhage sustained at birth Award against hospital and physician Verdict of $14.5 million $8 million for cost of future care $5 million for pain and suffering $1 million for mother s cost of services $500,000 for past economic losses Lost earning capacity?