Section 6 Hazard Identification, Profiling, and Ranking

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1 Section 6 Hazard Identification, Profiling, and Ranking Contents of this Section 6.1 Interim Final Rule Requirement for Hazard Identification and Profiling 6.2 Hazard Identification 6.3 Overview of Type and Location of Hazards That Can Affect Morris County Dam and Levee Failure Drought Earthquake/Geological Extreme Temperatures Cold Extreme Temperatures Heat Flood Hail Hazardous Materials Release Fixed Site Hazardous Materials Release Transportation High Wind Straight-Line winds High Wind Tornado Ice Storm Landslide (non-seismic) Severe Storm Lightning Severe Storm Winter Weather Wildfire 6.4 Methodology for Identifying Hazards of Concern 6.1 Interim Final Rule Requirement for Hazard Identification and Profiling Requirement 201.6(c)(2)(i): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the location and extent of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction. The plan shall include information on previous occurrences of hazard events and on the probability of future hazard events. Note that Appendix D includes general descriptions of all selected hazards that can affect Morris County. The present section addresses the specific requirements of the Interim Final Rule (IFR) with regard to hazards in the planning area. Page 6-1

2 6.2 Hazard Identification In accordance with IFR requirements, and as part of its efforts to support and encourage hazard mitigation initiatives, Morris County s Hazard Mitigation Steering Committee (MCHMSC) prepared this general assessment of the hazards that have the potential to impact the county. The following subsections provide an overview of past hazard events in the county and brief descriptions of the potential for future losses. Section 7 (Risk Assessment) includes much more detailed information about past and potential losses (risk) from a subset of the most significant hazards in Morris County. The term planning area is used frequently in this section. This term refers to the geographic limits of Morris County. The Risk Assessment section (Section 7) addresses the potential future damages of hazards on Morris County and its citizens. Overview of Morris County s History of Hazards Numerous federal agencies maintain a variety of records regarding losses associated with natural hazards. Unfortunately, no single source offers a definitive accounting of all losses. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) maintains records on federal expenditures associated with declared major disasters. The US Army Corps of Engineers and the Natural Resources Conservation Service collect data on losses during the course of some of their ongoing projects and studies. Additionally, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration s (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) database collects and maintains data about natural hazards in summary format. The data includes occurrences, dates, injuries, deaths, and costs. According to the NCDC database, between 1950 and June 2008, Morris County has experienced the following hazard events. 204 thunderstorm and high wind events (11 exceeding 69 mph) 142 winter storms (five major blizzards/ severe winter storms) 79 wildfires (average of 80 acres burned per year) 69 floods/flash floods 31 significant lightning events 28 hail storms (14 of which had hailstones with 1 diameter or greater) 22 extreme heat events 17 extreme cold temperature events 11 droughts 11 hurricanes or tropical storms 6 tornadoes (three F1s, one F2, and two F3s) 2 ice storms (12 freezing rain events, eight snow/ice events, and 32 wintry mix events) In addition to the events recorded in the NCDC database other sources identified three earthquakes, and 15 partial dam failures and one complete dam failure. A number of these events caused property damage, injuries, and loss of life. 1 These figures are discussed in more detail in the hazard-specific subsections that follow. 1 NOAA/NCDCD database Page 6-2

3 In the absence of definitive data on some of the hazards that may occur in Morris County, illustrative examples are useful. Table provides brief descriptions of particularly significant hazard events occurring in the county s recent history. This list is not meant to capture every event that has affected the area, rather lists some of the more significant events that have occurred here in the past. Morris County has received ten major Presidential Disaster Declarations and eight Emergency Declarations since Five of the ten major disaster declarations were the result of significant flooding. 2 The more recent major and emergency declarations are included as part of the summary in Table below. Table Recent Hazards and Declared Emergency and Major Disasters in Morris County, New Jersey ( ) (Sources: NOAA/NCDC; FEMA; and the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management) Date & Disaster (DR) 3/13/1993 (EM 3106) 1/7/1996 (DR 1088) 10/19/1996 (DR 1145) 9/18/1999 (DR 1295) Nature of Event SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING (Emergency Declaration) Event known as the Storm of the Century affected as many as 26 States from Florida to Maine, the Gulf Coast, and the Ohio Valley. This storm was one of the most intense nor easters to ever affect the United States. Snow became very heavy, changed to sleet, then back to snow. The Storm of the Century label was given to the event due to the record low pressure, wind speeds, temperature and snowfall. All 21 counties in New Jersey were included in the Presidentially Declared Disaster. Snowfall totals ranged from 13" to 20" in Morris County. BLIZZARD The winter storm event known as the Blizzard of 96 resulted in severe conditions throughout much of the east coast. In New Jersey, blizzard conditions grew stronger as high northeast winds developed around the intensifying low pressure. Road conditions were dangerous due to the high winds and drifts. Both government and contract snow plowing operations were running at a maximum. Local roads were impassable. A State of Emergency was declared and more than 400 National Guard personnel were activated for transport assistance, primarily for medic missions. In Morris County snowfall totals ranged from 23" to 28. A little more than a week after the blizzard, strong southerly winds ushered in very mild and moisture laden air that resulted in heavy rains and flash flooding. Street flooding became a major problem early on due to the rains and significant snowmelt. In Morris County, dozens of people were evacuated along the Rockaway River in Denville Township and Boonton. There were also numerous road washouts in Washington Township. FLASH FLOOD Heavy rains caused considerable urban and local drainage flooding as well flooding of most of the rivers and streams in the Passaic River Basin. The Netcong, Passaic, Rockaway, and Whippany Rivers all exceeded flood stage. The hardest hit municipalities included the Townships of Denville, Hanover, Harding, Roxbury, Long Hill and the Boroughs of Florham Park and Hopatcong. The Stirling section of Long Hill Township was hard hit by flooding where four main roads were flooded. In Roxbury Township, basements in Succasunna and Port Morris had water up to 6' deep. Elsewhere in Roxbury Township, flooding along Ledgewood Circle reached some historical buildings for the first time in 20 years. Damages countywide were estimated at $1 million. HURRICANE FLOYD This downgraded fall hurricane put the entire Eastern Seaboard on flood watch, including every county in New Jersey. Although downgraded from a hurricane by the time it hit New Jersey, the storm lasted approximately 18 hours. Tropical Storm Floyd battered New Jersey and brought with it torrential and in some areas unprecedented and record breaking, rains, damaging winds and flash flooding. Rainfall totals in Morris County were highest in Pequannock Township with 11" and Morris Plains Borough and Morristown, each with nearly 9". In the Passaic River Basin in Morris County, the Rockaway River above the Boonton Reservoir crested 6.3', estimated to be 1.3' above flood stage. In Pine Brook, the Passaic River crested at 20.8 with flood stage estimated at Public Entity Risk Institute disaster database Page 6-3

4 Date & Disaster (DR) 8/12/2000 (DR 1337) 2/16/2003 (EM 3181) 4/2/2005 (DR 1588) 4/15/2007 (DR 1694) Nature of Event SEVERE STORMS, FLOODING, AND MUDSLIDES A nearly unprecedented series of thunderstorms with torrential downpours produced rainfall totals of around 15 along the Morris/Sussex County border. Two to three inches of rain fell per hour at times and caused considerable, widespread and devastating flooding across southeastern Sussex County and western Morris County. Mud and rock slides exacerbated the damage. This was approximately a one in a thousand year event. In Morris County, three bridges were destroyed, two dams were badly damaged, four others suffered some damage and about two dozen roads were closed or damaged. The torrential rain caused a record rise in Lake Hopatcong and lakeside flooding in Jefferson and Roxbury Townships. About 1,000 homes and businesses were damaged. Two houses were destroyed, 75 suffered major damage while 727 others suffered minor damage. Vehicles drove into flood waters after several roadways collapsed. About 150 persons were rescued from flood waters. Damage in the county was estimated at $12 million. HEAVY SNOW (Emergency Declaration) The most powerful storm to affect New Jersey since the Blizzard of 1996 struck during the President's Day Weekend in February, The combination of the very cold temperatures and the approach of a strong storm system caused widespread snow to break out, starting before sunrise on Sunday, February 16. Snow continued during the day Sunday, heavy at times, and continued into Sunday night. Precipitation continued on Monday, before finally coming to an end on Tuesday. New Jersey requested and was granted a Snow Emergency Declaration for all 21 counties. The President's Day snowstorm tied or set records in all 21 New Jersey counties including Morris. Statewide, the event resulted in damages estimated at approximately $30.2 million. In Morris County, specific snow accumulations totaled 27.0 in Green Pond and 23.5 in Morristown. SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING On April 2nd and 3rd heavy rains from an intense low pressure system caused widespread flooding throughout northern New Jersey. The New Jersey Office of Emergency Management estimated that the flooding forced 6,000 residents from their homes and caused a total of $60 million in damages. More than 3 of rain was recorded by rain gages in Morris, Passaic, and Sussex Counties. Contributing to widespread flooding was rapid snowmelt, brought on by a series of moderate to heavy rainfalls that lasted for two weeks. In Morris, Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, and Mercer counties, about 1,800 homes and businesses were flooded and 25 homes were destroyed. The northeastern part of Morris County was hit the hardest by flooding along the Pequannock, Pompton and Passaic Rivers. Property damage in Morris County was estimated at around $1 million. SEVERE STORMS AND INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING A 7-day nor easter deluged New Jersey with over nine inches of rain, causing millions of dollars of damage and killing three residents. Statewide damage was estimated at $180 million. Flooding from the event forced about 1,000 people to be evacuated in Morris County. About 100 businesses along New Jersey State Route 23 suffered flood damage. In Lincoln Park Borough, flooding along the Pompton River severely affected the area. About 1,000 homes were damaged with water up to five feet in some homes. An estimated 24 roads were temporarily closed including access roads to New Jersey State Routes 23 and Interstate 80. Weather-Related Deaths and Injuries According to the NCDC, Morris County has experienced 51 deaths and 348 injuries from natural hazards in the period from 1950 to June, NOAA/NCDCD database Page 6-4

5 Section 6.3 Overview of the Type and Location of Hazards that can affect Morris County In the initial phase of the planning process, MCHMSC considered 24 natural and technological hazards and the risks they create for the county and its material assets, operations, and staff. The hazards initially considered are shown in Table Table Preliminary Hazard List Morris County Hazard Type (1) Morris County EOP Mitigation 20/20 NJSHMPU (2) Include in MC HMP Civil Disturbance I No Crime I No Dam and Levee Failure T Yes Drought N Yes Earthquake/Geological (3) N Yes Economic Crisis T No Enemy Attack /Terrorism I No Extreme Temperature Cold N Yes Extreme Temperature Heat N Yes Flood (4) N Yes Hail N Yes Hazardous Materials Release Fixed Site T Yes Hazardous Materials Release Transportation T Yes High Wind Straight-Line Winds (5) N Yes High Wind Tornado N Yes Ice Storm N Yes Landslide (non-seismic) N Yes Pandemic Disease / Infestation B No Radiological Incident T No Severe Storm Lightning N Yes Severe Storm Winter Weather N Yes Utility Failure (gas, power, sewer, telecom, water) T No Urban Fire I No Wildfire N Yes Notes: 1. Type Legend: B = Biological; I = Intentional Acts; N = Natural; T = Technological/Manmade. 2. NJSHMPU = State of New Jersey Hazard Mitigation Plan Update (Approved by FEMA in April 2008). 3. Earthquake/Geological includes effects of surface faulting, ground shaking, earthquake induced landslides and liquefaction. 4. Flood includes tidal, flash, sheet, and riverine flooding. Page 6-5

6 5. High Wind Straight-Line Winds includes winds due to Nor easters, coastal storms, hurricanes, and severe storms, but not tornadoes. In the initial identification process, the MCHMSC catalogued potential hazards to identify those with the most chance to significantly affect the county. The hazards include those that have occurred in the past and may occur in the future. A variety of sources were used in the investigation. These included national, regional, and local sources such as emergency operations plans, the State Hazard Mitigation Plan, websites, published documents, databases, and maps, as well as discussion with the MCHMSC. The MCHMSC reviewed the 24 hazards and determined that 8 of these hazards were the result of intentional acts or were due to biological or technological hazards that were not consistent with traditional hazard mitigation planning and implementation processes. These 8 hazards were referred to the Morris County Office of Emergency Management for further action as part of appropriate preparedness activities (e.g., emergency operations planning). The remaining 16 hazards, listed below, were selected for inclusion in the Morris County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan (the Plan) by the MCHMSC. 1. Dam and Levee Failure 2. Drought 3. Earthquake/Geological 4. Extreme Temperature Cold 5. Extreme Temperature Heat 6. Flood 7. Hail 8. Hazardous Materials Release Fixed Site 9. Hazardous Materials Release Transportation 10. High Wind Straight-Line Winds 11. High Wind Tornado 12. Ice Storm 13. Landslide (non-seismic) 14. Severe Storm Lightning 15. Severe Storm Winter Weather 16. Wildfire The following section profiles each of the 16 hazards listed above and includes a description of the hazard, location and extent of the hazard, severity of the hazard, impact on life and property, and past occurrences of the hazard. Page 6-6

7 6.3.1 Dam and Levee Failure Description of the Dam and Levee Failure Hazard A dam is defined by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) as any artificial dike, levee or other barrier that is constructed for the purpose of impounding water on a permanent or temporary basis, that raises the water level five feet or more above the usual, mean, low water height when measured from the downstream toe-ofdam to the emergency spillway crest or, in the absence of an emergency spillway, the top-of-dam. 4 Dam failures can result from a variety of causes including lack of maintenance, seismic activity, improper design or construction, or the effects of large storms. Significant rainfall can quickly inundate an area and cause floodwaters to overwhelm a reservoir. If the spillway of the dam cannot safely pass the resulting flows, water will begin flowing in areas not designed for such flows and failure may occur. 5 See Appendix D for a more detailed description and definition of the dam failure hazard. To prevent, or reduce the probability of a failure, existing dams are periodically inspected by professional engineers on a regular basis. Table summarizes the dam inspection schedule for New Jersey, including Morris County. Table New Jersey Dam Inspection Schedule (Source: NJDEP Dam Safety and Flood Control) Dam Class Regular Inspection Formal Inspection Class I Large Dam annually once every three years Class I Dam once every two years once every six years Class II Dam once every two years once every ten years Class III Dam once every four years only as required Class IV Dam once every four years only as required A levee is a natural or artificial slope or wall, either earthen or concrete and often parallels the course of a river. The main purpose of a man-made levee is to prevent flooding to adjacent development or farmland. Engineered levees are often reinforced with concrete and rip-rap to prevent erosion or failure. Levee failure can occur in numerous ways but the most common is breaching. A breach occurs when part of the levee actually fails and breaks away, leaving an opening for water to flood surrounding areas. A breach can occur suddenly or gradually, and can be caused either by surface erosion or by a subsurface failure of the levee. Failure can also occur when water overtops the crest of a levee. This is known as overtopping, where floodwaters exceed the lowest crest of a levee, flooding the surrounding area. 4 NJDEP 5 NJDEP Page 6-7

8 Location of the Dam and Levee Failure Hazard According to the NJDEP, there are a total of 225 dams in Morris County. The NJDEP Bureau of Dam Safety separates New Jersey dams into three hazard classifications. These hazard classifications include high hazard, significant, and low and are based upon the guidelines outlined in the New Jersey Administrative Code Dam Safety Standards (NJAC: 7-20): Dam Classifications. Of the 225 dams in Morris County, 32 are classified as high hazard. The following table lists the high hazard dams, including the municipality name, hazard classification, the river or stream the dam is located along, the last inspection date and the name of the dam. The NJDEP database does not include the data points listed as na in the table. The complete inventory of Morris County dams can be found in Appendix E. Page 6-8

9 Table Morris County High Hazard Dams (Source: NJDEP Bureau of Dam Safety and Flood Control) Municipality Name Dam Name River/Stream Height (feet) Length (feet) Last Date Inspected Kinnelon Borough Kakeout Dam Stonehouse Brook /9/2006 Jefferson Township Lake Winona Dam Musconetcong River /26/2006 Jefferson Township Oak Ridge Reservoir Dam Pequannock River /7/2006 Jefferson Township Mount Paul Dam Russia Brook-TR /14/2006 Kinnelon Borough Kakeout Dike Kakeout Brook /9/2006 Dover Town Denmark Lake Dam Green Pond Brook-TR /10/2006 Dover Town Picatinny Lake Dam Green Pond Brook /10/2006 Jefferson Township Swannanoa Lake #2 (North) Dam Rockaway River /19/2003 Jefferson Township Swannanoa Lake #1 (South) Dam West Branch Rockaway River /9/2005 Kinnelon Borough Untermeyer Dam East Ditch /4/2007 Rockaway Township Split Rock Pond Dam Beaver Brook /9/2007 Mount Olive Township Saxton Falls Dam Musconctcong River /17/2007 Mendham Township Clyde Potts Reservoir Dam Harmony Brook /10/2008 Morristown Town Speedwell Dam Whippany River /16/2007 Rockaway Township Mount Hope Lake Dam White Meadow Brook /18/2008 Rockaway Township White Meadow Lake Dam White Meadow Brook /17/2007 Mountain Lakes Borough Mountain Lake Dam Troy Brook /31/2003 Montville Township Valhalla Lake Dam Morris Canal-TR /3/2007 Denville Township Lake Estling Dam Den Brook /18/2006 Parsippany-Troy Hills Township Rainbow Lakes Dam Whippany River /20/2006 Randolph Township Shongum Lake Dam Den Brook /18/2006 Parsippany-Troy Hills Township Boonton Dam Rockaway River /8/2008 Netcong Borough Lake Hopatcong Dam Muscontcong River /12/2007 Parsippany-Troy Hills Township Powder Mill Pond Dam Whippany River-TR /20/2006 Parsippany-Troy Hills Township Parsippany Dike Rockaway River /8/2008 Mountain Lakes Borough Wildwood Lake Dam Troy Brook /31/2003 Mountain Lakes Borough Crystal Lake Dam Troy Brook /30/2003 Morristown Town Pocahontas Dam Whippany River /12/2007 Page 6-9

10 Municipality Name Dam Name River/Stream Height (feet) Length (feet) Last Date Inspected Mountain Lakes Borough Birchwood Lake Dam Troy Brook /15/2003 Netcong Borough Lake Musconetcong Dam Musconetcong River /17/2007 Mendham Township Pleasant Valley Lake Dam McVickers Brook /28/2006 Parsippany-Troy Hills Township Lake Parsippany Dam Eastmans Brook /7/2007 Page 6-10

11 The following map identifies the locations for 209 of the 225 dams in Morris County. The inventory of dams was provided by the NJDEP - Bureau of Dam Safety and Flood Control. The latitude and longitude coordinates were missing for 16 of the dams and therefore not identified on the map. Figure Morris County Dams (Source: NJDEP Bureau of Dam Safety and Flood Control) Note: 16 dams without latitude and longitude coordinates were excluded from the map: Elwood Headley Pond Dam, Jefferson Pond Dam, Lower Camp Mason Dam, Memorial Pond Dam, Mill Brook Dam, Mill Pond Dam, Moore Estate Dam, Rock Creek Crossing Detention Dam, Suntan Lake Dam, Tanners Brook Pond Dam, Triumph Square D/B #2 Dam, Triumph Square D/B #3 Dam, Upper Great Bay Dam, Upper Camp Mason Dam, Upper Mount Hope Lake Dam, and Ute Place Detention Dam. Page 6-11

12 A variety of open sources were reviewed to identify an inventory and location of levees in Morris County. Although no levees were identified, the USACE is currently in the process of developing a National Levee Database (NLD) that will inventory all federal levees in the United States. The NLD is currently in development by the USACE and any levees identifying from this effort will be included in the next scheduled Plan update. Severity of Dam and Levee Failure Hazard In 1921, the New Jersey Legislature created the Bureau of Dam Safety and Flood Control, which instituted laws relating to the construction, repair, and inspection of existing and proposed dam structures. The law was amended in 1981, and became known as the Safe Dam Act. New Jersey's Dam Safety program is administered by NJDEP s Division of Engineering & Construction, Dam Safety Section. 6 The severity of a dam failure event can depend on various aspects related to the size of the dam, the extent of the failure, the velocity of the floodwaters released, and the intensity of downstream development. The severity of the levee failure hazard can range from minor cracks along the levee wall to a complete breach. The severity of failure can be influenced by a variety of factors, such as the topography of a region, population densities, volume, depth and velocity of water released from behind the levee. After Hurricane Katrina in 2005 (in which New Orleans flooded, due mainly to failures of the levees that surround the City), Congress directed the USACE and FEMA to determine which levees in the United States pose an unacceptable risk of failure during a flood. The USACE inspected approximately 2,000 levees nationwide and in February 2007, indicated there were 122 levees in the United States that posed an unacceptable risk of failing in a major flood (mainly due to poor maintenance).7 Though many levees identified were in rural areas, some were in metropolitan regions including the District of Columbia, Springfield, Massachusetts, Stockton and Sacramento, California, and some suburbs of San Francisco. The list did not include any levees in New Jersey. Impact on Life and Property According to the National Inventory of Dams as of 2005 there were 79,500 dams in the United States. Approximately one third of these pose a "high" or "significant" hazard to life and property if failure occurs. Dam or levee failure has the potential for catastrophic impact on life and property. This risk can be reduced by proper design, construction and routine maintenance and inspection. Occurrences of the Dam and Levee Failure Hazard The NJDEP indicates there have been no previous catastrophic dam failures in New Jersey, but the number of small failures has risen over the past few years. This has been primarily due to a combination of lack of inspection and the number of dams nearing the end of their design life. 8 The NJDEP Bureau of Dam Safety and Flood Control lists dam failures in New Jersey from several major flooding events including Hurricane Floyd in September of 1999 and the Sparta storm in August, Review of these floods indentified 15 partial dam failures and one complete failure in Morris County. 9 6 NJDEP Bureau of Dam Safety and Flood Control 7 Insurance Journal. Levees in 27 States at Risk of Failing; Could Trigger Flood Mandate. Beverly Lumpkin. February 5, NJDEP Bureau of Dam Safety and Flood Control 9 NJDEP Bureau of Dam Safety and Flood Control-Historical Events Page 6-12

13 The dam failures are listed below in Table Note that with the exception of Spencer Detention Basin Dam (which completely failed), all are partial failures. See Figure for the location of the dam failures listed in the table. Table Dam Failures after Hurricane Floyd in 1999 and the Sparta Flood in 2000 (Source: NJDEP Bureau of Dam Safety and Flood Control) Dam Name Municipality Name Event Name Event Date Cozy Lake Dam Jefferson Township Sparta Flood 8/12/2000 Elwood Headley Pond Dam Jefferson Township Sparta Flood 8/12/2000 Hudsonia Dam Rockaway Township Floyd 9/16/1999 Lake Hartung Dam Jefferson Township Sparta Flood 8/12/2000 Lake Winona Dam Jefferson Township Floyd 9/16/1999 Lower Waterloo Dam Mount Olive Sparta Flood 8/12/2000 New Jersey No Name No 51 Jefferson Township Sparta Flood 8/12/2000 Oak Ridge Lake Dam Jefferson Township Sparta Flood 8/12/2000 Saffin Pond Dam Jefferson Township Sparta Flood 8/12/2000 Shawnee Lake Dam Jefferson Township Sparta Flood 8/12/2000 Shongum Lake Dam Randolph Township Floyd 9/16/1999 Spencer Detention Basin Dam (1) Morris Township Floyd 9/16/1999 Swannanoa South Dam Jefferson Township Sparta Flood 8/12/2000 Upper Waterloo Dam Mount Olive Sparta Flood 8/12/2000 Washington Forge Pond Dam Wharton Sparta Flood 8/12/2000 Winona Lake Dam Jefferson Township Sparta Flood 8/12/2000 (1) Complete dam failure occurred at this dam. No failures were identified from other events. Based on the 16 previous dam failure events in Morris County, the likelihood of a major failure occurring in the future is considered moderate. The MCHMSC determined that seven high-hazard dams should be addressed in the risk assessment (Section 7) of this Plan. See Section 7.3.4, Dam Failure Risk in Morris County, for a more detailed analysis of seven high hazard dams selected for the risk assessment. The dams analyzed include the following: Boonton Dam Kakeout Dam Kakeout Dike Lake Hopatcong Dam Swannanoa Lake #1 (South) Dam Swannanoa Lake #2 (North) Dam Valhalla Lake Dam No past levee failure events were identified for Morris County. Page 6-13

14 6.3.2 Drought Description of the Drought Hazard A drought is an extended dry climate condition when there is not enough water to support urban, agricultural, human, or environmental water needs. It usually refers to a period of below-normal rainfall, but can also be caused by drying bores or lakes, or anything that reduces the amount of liquid water available. Drought is a recurring feature of nearly all the world's climatic regions. See Appendix D for a more detailed description and definition of the drought hazard. Location of the Drought Hazard Droughts may occur anywhere in the United States. Effects seen in different regions vary depending on normal meteorological conditions such as precipitation and temperature, as well as geological conditions such as soil type and subsurface water levels. Drought is possible throughout the planning area. Severity of the Drought Hazard A drought s severity depends on numerous factors, including duration, intensity, and geographic extent as well as regional water supply demands by humans and vegetation. The severity of drought can be aggravated by other climatic factors, such as prolonged high winds and low relative humidity. 10 Due to its multi-dimensional nature, drought is difficult to define in exact terms and also poses difficulties in terms of comprehensive risk assessments. Impact on Life and Property The NCDC database indicates there have been no known deaths or injuries from past droughts in the planning area. The database also indicates no property damage from drought, but does identify $80 million in crop damages from a single event in the summer of Occurrences of the Drought Hazard According to the NCDC database, Morris County has experienced 35 drought events in the period from 1950 to All 35 events occurred between 1995 and The database provides no indication as to why there are no events prior to 1995, although presumably occurrences follow the same pattern and frequency as shown in the NCDC list. The events are listed by month. For example, if a drought lasts several continuous months, it is listed in the database as a separate event. If the continuous months are combined into single events, the number of events is reduced from 35 to FEMA, 1997 Page 6-14

15 Based on the 11 events between 1995 and 2007, on average, a drought event occurs in Morris County approximately once a year. From these previous occurrences, it is reasonable to assume that droughts will continue in Morris County, but with no previous injuries, deaths, or property damage the impacts will probably be minimal Earthquake/Geological (Includes surface faulting, ground shaking, earthquake induced landslide, subsidence, and liquefaction) Description of the Earthquake Hazard An earthquake is a sudden release of energy from the earth s crust that creates seismic waves. Tectonic plates become stuck, putting a strain on the ground. When the strain becomes so great that rocks give way, fault lines occur. At the Earth's surface, earthquakes may manifest themselves by a shaking or displacement of the ground, which may lead to loss of life and destruction of property. Size of an earthquake is expressed quantitatively as magnitude and local strength of shaking as intensity. The inherent size of an earthquake is commonly expressed using a magnitude. See Appendix D for a more detailed description of the earthquake hazard. Subsidence is the motion of the Earth s surface as it shifts downward, relative to sea-level. Land subsidence, the loss of surface elevation due to the removal of subsurface support, ranges from broad, regional lowering of the land surface to localized collapse. Page 6-15

16 Location of the Earthquake Hazard The entire planning area is susceptible to the effects of earthquakes. Figure displays the northeast portion of a United States Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake hazard map produced in The map shows peak ground acceleration (pga) with a 10% exceedence probability over 50 years is highest in northeastern New Jersey (6%g) and decreases to the south (2%g). The FEMA How-To guidance, Understanding Your Risks, FEMA 386-2, p. 1-7, suggests the earthquake hazard should be profiled if the pga is greater than 3%g.The map shows Morris County is located in the 3%g range, a slightly higher risk area than the southern part of the state. Figure New Jersey Seismic Hazard Map, showing Peak Ground Acceleration in Percent of g, with 10 % exceedance in 50 years. (Source: USGS, 2008) Morris County In November, 2005 the New Jersey Geologic Survey (NJGS) completed an Earthquake Loss Estimation Study for Morris County. The NJGS acquired and analyzed geologic, topographic and test-boring data in order to map seismic soil class, liquefaction susceptibility, and landslide susceptibility for Morris County. The soil class, liquefaction, and landslide susceptibility were then entered into the FEMA HAZUS (Hazards US) model for each census track in the county. The study completed by the NJGS identified and mapped the distribution and thickness of 12 surface materials for Morris County. Mapping the soil type for each census track identifies areas that are susceptible to soil liquefaction. Figure below is a soil liquefaction map for Morris County. The map identifies the southeastern region of Morris County as the main area of higher susceptibility for soil liquefaction. Page 6-16

17 Figure Morris County, New Jersey Soil Liquefaction Susceptibility (Source: Earthquake Loss Estimation Study for Morris County, New Jersey: Geologic Component (NJGS, 2005) Additional information about the results of the Earthquake Loss Estimation Study for Morris County can be found in Section 7.3 (Risk Assessment) of this Plan. Page 6-17

18 Land subsidence is generally found in areas of very distinct geography, such as places where there is extensive gas or groundwater (that has been extracted), or in areas of karst topography or mines. The Association of New Jersey Environmental Commissions indicates that the New Jersey Highlands area is susceptible to subsidence due to the presence of carbonate rocks. These rock formations, consisting primarly of limestone, dolmonite, and marble and may contain surface depressions and open drainage passages making such areas unstable and vulnerable to surface collapse. According to the NJDEP 59 of the 88 municipalities within the highlands region contain carbonite rocks. In Morris County 14 municipalities contain carbonite rocks and therefore considered to be the area of the County most susceptible to land subsidence. Severity of the Earthquake Hazard Although most past earthquakes in northern New Jersey have been of low magnitude, there have been several significant historical earthquake events (See Figure ). As shown in Table , the area has experienced a few events in the last 75 years, although even the most significant one (in 1927) was not particularly damaging. 11 As discussed in Appendix D, the severity of earthquakes is influenced by several factors, including the depth of the quake, the geology in the area, and the soils. The severity of liquefaction depends on various factors related to the soil, including grain size, thickness, compaction, and degree of saturation. 12 The severity of land subsidence has no generally established measure, except that it can be described in terms of change in ground elevation relative to sea level. Subsidence is generally permanent, although it can be abated with proper management methods. Land subsidence occurs slowly and continuously over time or on abrupt occasions, as in the case of sudden formation of sinkholes. Procedures for determining the probability or frequency of land subsidence have not been recommended. Impact on Life and Property There are no known deaths or injuries from earthquakes in Morris County. Some of the past earthquake events were severe enough to cause minor property damage such as broken windows or contents falling from shelves. Although the probability of a significant earthquake occurring in this region is relatively small, the effects on life and property in the area could be significant, so this hazard is included in the risk assessments in Section 7. The Mitigation Strategies in Section 9 also includes specific actions related to earthquake risk. The highlands area of Morris County is at a higher risk from land subsidence than other areas of the County. Land subsidence can impact life and property by causing the collapse or subsidence of structures, including buildings, roadways and underground utilities. As noted in Section 7.5, Morris County Future Development Trends, the Highlands Water Protection and Planning Act of 2004 divides the Highlands Region into the Highlands Preservation Area and the Highlands Planning Area, each area representing approximately half of the entire Region. In the Preservation Area, future development is severely limited. 13 With minimal development in this area, the impact from subsidence on life and property in the highlands region of Morris County is most likely minimal. 11 USGS and NJGS New Jersey earthquake history 12 NJGS 13 Morris County Comprehensive Farmland Preservation Plan - December 2007 Page 6-18

19 Occurrences of the Earthquake Hazard To identify past earthquake occurrences that have potentially impacted Morris County, the map titled Earthquake Epicenters displaying historical earthquakes was reviewed. Figure displays historical earthquake epicenters spatially across the northeast from 1737 to Although the map highlights historical earthquakes in New York State, the map also shows earthquake occurrences for surrounding states, including northern New Jersey. The map indicates there have been six historical earthquakes of 5.0 magnitude, or greater, within the New Jersey region during the period of record. This map was prepared by the Geographical Information System (GIS) division of the New York State Emergency Management Office (SEMO) using New York State Geological Survey/National Institute of Building Sciences data. Figure Earthquake Epicenters for the Northeast United States, (Sources: New York State Geological Survey, National Institute of Building Sciences) In addition to the Earthquake Epicenters map prepared by the New York SEMO, the USGS also offers earthquake history for each state. The USGS earthquake history for New Jersey indicates that there have been nine earthquakes statewide since Of the nine events in New Jersey, the earthquake descriptions provided by the USGS indicate that three have affected Morris County. Table below summarizes the past earthquake events that have impacted the planning area. Page 6-19

20 Table Morris County Earthquake History (Source: USGS) Event Date Epicenter Description June 1, 1927 Asbury Park, New Jersey The highest intensity earthquake ever observed in New Jersey occurred on June 1, 1927, in the Asbury Park area. Three shocks were felt along the coast from Sandy Hook to Toms River. Several chimneys fell, plaster cracked, and articles were thrown from shelves. September 3, 1951 Rockland County, New York Northeastern New Jersey experienced minor effects from an earthquake on September 3, 1951 that was apparently centered in Rockland County, New York. March 23, 1957 High Bridge, New Jersey On March 23, 1957, a shock affected west-central New Jersey, near the site of the 1895 earthquake. Chimneys cracked (intensity VI), windows and dishes broke, and pictures fell at Lebanon. A cracked chimney was also reported from Hamden. At Long Valley some walls were cracked and plaster fell. The felt area was small in comparison with the other shocks previously described. On average, an earthquake has impacted Morris County every 26 years, so based on the historical record, the probability of earthquakes of all magnitudes occurring in the future is moderate in the planning area. Section 7 of this Plan includes a more detailed discussion of the earthquake risk in Morris County, including HAZUS simulation results from the NJGS, and probability-based risk estimates that were performed using the FEMA Full-Data Earthquake Benefit-Cost Analysis Module. A variety of open source documents were researched to identify past land subsidence events in Morris County, The primary areas where land subsidence has occurred is at abandoned underground mines located in the highlands region of the County. The NJDEP maintains abandoned mine maps for 36 sites in Morris County. The mine maps can be useful to assist in the remediation of any subsidence or collapse events, pollution tracking and remediation, historical research, land development and open space purchases. 14 The Department of Energy (DOE) indicates that land subsidence occurred at several abandoned mines in Rockaway Township. The DOE report titled Remediation of Abandoned Iron Ore Mine Subsidence in Rockaway Township, New Jersey identified significant subsidence at the following mine locations White Meadow Mine Mt. Hope Road Green Pond Mine (Township Compost Storage Facility) 15 The degree of subsidence at the sites listed above was considered a public safety hazard and the DOE began subsidence remediation in September, The project was completed in Prior to the next scheduled Plan update, past land subsidence activity in Morris County will be further studied to research the possibility of additional events in Morris County. Any additional events identified will be incorporated into the 2013 Plan update. 14 New Jersey Department of the Environment Map Archive of New Jersey s Abandoned Mines 15 Department of Energy (DOE) The Remediation of Abandoned Iron Ore Mine Subsidence in Rockaway Township, New Jersey. Page 6-20

21 6.3.4 Extreme Temperature Cold Description of the Extreme Temperature (Cold) Hazard Temperatures that are significantly below normal are considered extreme cold temperatures. What constitutes extreme cold and its effect varies across different areas of the United States. In areas unaccustomed to winter weather, near freezing temperatures are considered "extreme cold." Freezing temperatures can cause severe damage to citrus fruit crops and other vegetation. Pipes may freeze and burst in homes that are poorly insulated or without heat. In the northeast, below zero temperatures may be considered as "extreme cold. 16 The consequences of extreme cold on humans are intensified by high winds which increase the rate of heat loss and has the effect of making it feel colder than the actual air temperature. Extreme cold temperatures combined with high winds can lead to frostbite, permanent damage to the body, or even death. See Appendix D for a more detailed description and definition of the extreme cold hazard. Location of the Extreme Temperature (Cold) Hazard The entire planning area is subject to the hazards associated with extreme cold temperatures. Severity of Extreme Temperature (Cold) The severity of extreme cold temperature events is measured by temperature, duration, and humidity. Most events are less than a week in duration but can occasionally last for longer periods up to several weeks. Impact on Life and Property The NCDC database combines the extreme cold and extreme heat into a single category called temperature extremes. The database indicates there have been seven deaths and seven injuries from 17 extreme cold events. Damages from extreme cold temperatures are generally confined to effects on humans (described above), although occasionally there may be relatively minor effects on infrastructure such as freezing pipes or electrical grids. Table lists the extreme temperature events from the NCDC for Morris County that resulted in at least one death. Periodically throughout Section 6.3, the output from the NCDC database queries has been included to summarize past events for specific hazards. 16 NOAA Winter Storms The Deceptive Killers Page 6-21

22 Table Reported Extreme Temperature Events Resulting in Deaths, Morris County, 1950 through June 2008 (Source: NOAA/NCDC) Note: Coded letters and numbers under Location or County column are a result of output from the NCDC query. Several of the column headings (the five farthest to the right) within the NCDC table above have been abbreviated and are defined as follows: Mag = Magnitude of the event for applicable hazards (Hailstorms, Tornadoes, etc.) Dth = Number of deaths Inj = Number of Injuries PrD = The dollar amount of reported property damage CrD = The dollar amount of reported crop damage Occurrences of Extreme Temperature (Cold) The NCDC database indicates there have been 17 recorded extreme cold temperature events in Morris County during the period 1950 through June, Although the query results begin in 1950, the first reported event was in Several of these events are reported within a few days of each other and were most likely from one cold air mass lingering over the area for an extended period of time, and can be combined into a single event. If these cold spells are considered one event, the number of events identified in the NCDC database is reduced from 17 to 12. There are most likely additional extreme cold events prior to 1996 that are not captured in the database. Page 6-22

23 No indication is given in the database as to why there are no events identified prior to 1996, although the pattern is most likely similar with an extreme cold temperature event occurring about once per year. Based on the 12 events between 1996 and June, 2008, an extreme cold temperature event occurs on average approximately once per year. Taking into account the historical data from the NCDC database, the probability of future extreme cold temperature events can be considered moderate to high. However, the impact on life and property in the planning area will most likely be minimal Extreme Temperature Heat Description of the Extreme Temperature (Heat) Hazard Temperatures that are significantly above normal are considered extreme temperatures. There is no specific point when air temperatures are defined as significantly above normal. However, the National Weather Service (NWS) will initiate alert procedures such as special weather statements when the heat index is expected to exceed 105 F-110 F (depending on local climate), for at least two consecutive days. 17 Heat stress can be indexed by combining the effects of temperature and humidity. See Appendix D for a more detailed description and definition of the extreme heat hazard. Location of the Extreme Temperature (Heat) Hazard The entire planning area is subject to the hazards associated with extreme temperatures from high heat. Severity of Extreme Temperature (Heat) The severity of extreme temperature events is measured by temperature, duration and humidity. Most events are less than a week in duration. In the northeastern United States periods of warmer than normal temperatures typically occur several times a summer. Extreme heat waves may occur about once every five years or so where maximum daily temperatures exceed 100 F for an extended period of time. The passing of a cold front usually moderates temperatures after a few days to a week. Impact on Life and Property The structure of the NCDC database combines the extreme cold and extreme heat into temperature extremes. The database indicates there have been 33 deaths and 256 injuries in Morris County from excessive heat-related events. Ten of the 33 reported deaths were from one event that occurred from July 4 July 6, From the description provided in the NCDC database, the 12 deaths appear to cover all parts of New Jersey impacted by the event, not just Morris County. During the July 4 July 6 heat wave, the NCDC database indicates no deaths occurred in Morris County. The combination of the temperature and humidity during this event produced heat indices of around 110 F during the afternoon of each day. 17 NOAA Heat Wave Description Page 6-23

24 Damages from the extreme high temperature hazard are generally confined to effects on humans, although occasionally there may be relatively minor effects on infrastructure such as electrical grids. Table lists the extreme temperature events from the NCDC for Morris County that resulted in injuries. Table Reported Extreme Temperature Events Resulting in Injuries, Morris County, 1950 through June 2008 (Source: NOAA/NCDC) Notes: Coded letters and numbers under Location or County column is a result of output from the NCDC query. See bullets following Table for column heading definitions. Occurrences of Extreme Temperature (Heat) The NCDC database indicates there have been 60 recorded extreme temperature events related to high heat in Morris County during the period 1950 through June, Although the query results begin in 1950 the first reported event was in There are most likely additional extreme heat events prior to 1994 that are not captured in the NCDC database. The database provides no indication as to why there are no events prior to 1994, although presumably occurrences follow the same pattern and frequency as shown in the NCDC list. Similar to droughts and other hazards, the events are listed by month. If the continuous months are combined into single events, the number of events is reduced from 60 to 22. As mentioned above, one of the worst extreme heat-related events occurred in July, A very strong and oppressive high pressure system that extended from the surface to aloft gave New Jersey a brutal heat wave that included the entire Independence Day weekend. High temperatures reached the 90s for the first time on July 3, but sweltering humidity and record breaking maximum temperatures of around 100 F occurred from Independence Day through the July 6 of the month. 18 Based on the 22 events between 1994 and June, 2008, on average, an extreme heat event occurs approximately once every 1.5 years. Based on the historical data from the NCDC database, extreme heat events will continue to occur in the county at about this frequency, but with relatively minor impacts on life and property. 18 NOAA/NCDC database Page 6-24

25 6.3.6 Flood (Includes Tidal, Flash, and Riverine Flooding) Description of the Flood Hazard Flooding is defined as a condition of partial or complete inundation of normally dry land, typically in a floodplain, due to a variety of conditions. The floodplain is the land adjoining the channel of a river, stream, ocean, lake, or other watercourse or water body that is susceptible to flooding. Hundreds of floods occur each year in the United States, including overbank flooding of rivers and streams and shoreline inundation along lakes and coasts. Flooding typically results from large-scale weather systems generating prolonged rainfall. Flooding in Morris County can be the result of the following weather events: hurricanes, thunderstorms (convectional and frontal), flash flood, or severe winter storms. See Appendix D for more detailed descriptions and definitions of the flood hazard. Location of the Flood Hazard Morris County is located in the northeastern portion of New Jersey. It is bordered to the northwest by Sussex and Warren Counties, to the east by Essex and Union Counties, and to the south by Hunterdon and Somerset Counties. The county is partially bordered to the north by Pompton and Pequannock Rivers, which creates the border between Morris and Passaic Counties. In the northeastern portion of the county the Passaic River forms the border between Essex and Morris Counties. The topography of the county is greatly varied and rises in elevation and relief from east to west. In the eastern half of the county the terrain is quite flat, with several cities and highly developed areas. The terrain in the western half of the county is less populated and mountainous. Numerous areas within Morris County are susceptible to localized flooding from excess rain events, stormwater runoff, urban flooding, local drainage problems, overbank flooding, and other sources. All of the municipalities within the county experience some degree of flooding. This section highlights several of the significant flood areas throughout Morris County. Figure shows various flood zones in Morris County (see flood zone descriptions following the map). The 100- year floodplain includes areas with a 1% annual chance of flooding, includes zones A, AE, AH, and AO. In Figure the A zone is shaded purple, the AE zone is shaded dark blue, AH is shaded red, and AO is shaded brown. The majority of 100-year floodplain areas follow the major rivers in Morris County; these include the Passaic, Pequannock, and Rockaway Rivers. The 500-year floodplain includes areas with a 0.2% annual chance of flooding. The flood zone X500 is shown on the map below in green and represents the areas between the limits of the 100 and 500-year floodplains. The unshaded area (zone X), is considered outside of the 500-year floodplain. Page 6-25

26 Figure Floodplain Map of Morris County (Sources: FEMA and NJDEP) Page 6-26

27 The flood zone designations are defined as follows: Zone A (1 % annual chance flooding). Shaded purple. Areas with a 1% annual chance of flooding and a 26% chance of flooding over the life of a 30-year mortgage. Because detailed analyses are not performed for such areas; no depths or base flood elevations are shown within these zones. Zone AE (1 % annual chance flooding). Shaded dark blue. Areas with a 1% annual chance of flooding and a 26% chance of flooding over the life of a 30-year mortgage. In most instances, base flood elevations derived from detailed analyses are shown at selected intervals within these zones. Zone AH (1 % annual chance flooding). Shaded red. Areas with a 1% annual chance flooding where shallow flooding (usually areas of ponding) can occur with average depths between one and three feet. Zone AO (1 % annual chance flooding). Shaded brown. Areas with a 1% annual chance flooding, where shallow flooding average depths are between one and three feet. X500 (0.2 % annual chance of flooding). Shaded green. Represents areas between the limits of the 1% annual chance flooding and 0.2% chance flooding. Zone X. Shaded gray. Areas outside the 1% annual chance floodplain and 0.2% chance floodplain, areas of 1% annual chance sheet flow flooding where average depths are less than 1', areas of 1% annual chance stream flooding where the contributing drainage area is less than one square mile, or areas protected from the 1% annual chance flood by levees. No Base Flood Elevations or depths are shown within this zone. 19 The following subsections highlight several of the major flood areas throughout Morris County. These include the Passaic, Pequannock, and Rockaway Rivers. Flooding From the Passaic and Pequannock Rivers The source of the Passaic River is near Mendham, New Jersey where small streams come together to form a brook, where the river then continues through open farm land and eventually winds through seven counties, 45 municipalities and into the Newark Bay. At its source it is about 600 feet above sea level. Its southeasterly flow takes it south of Jockey Hollow National Park, where it forms the boundary between Somerset and Morris Counties, east of Bernardsville and Basking Ridge and southwest of the Great Swamp National Wildlife Refuge. The river flows along for about 90 miles; in some areas the movement is slow, and at other points it overflows its banks during heavy rains. 20 When the river reaches Morris County, it passes through a wide valley, wetlands and marshes. At this point it divides the Counties of Morris and Essex, flowing slowly past Livingston, Florham Park, the Hanovers, Caldwells, Montville, Fairfield and Lincoln Park. The Rockaway River joins the Passaic at Pine Brook, at the southeast end of Hook Mountain. At this point its flow is turned directly east between Fairfield and Lincoln Park to Two Bridges, and is joined by the Pompton River. The Passaic then continues northeast to the Great Falls in Paterson. It continues north, reversing itself at Hawthorne where it flows about 25 miles to Newark Bay. At Hawthorne, it becomes the boundary between Passaic and Bergen Counties. Flowing downstream from Hawthorne, the river has been dammed, creating Dundee Lake. 19 FEMA Flood Zone Designations 20 PassaicRiver.com Page 6-27

28 Below the dam at Garfield, the Saddle River joins the Passaic and flows through heavily industrialized and residential areas of Bergen, Hudson, and Essex Counties. At Harrison it makes an S-curve northeast and then turns southeast and unites with the Hackensack River as it empties into the Newark Bay. 21 Flooding has long been a problem in the Passaic River Basin. The growth of residential and industrial development in recent years has increased the threat of serious damages and loss of life from flooding. The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE New York District) indicates more than 2.5 million people live in the basin, and about 20,000 homes and businesses are within the Passaic River floodplain. Since 1900, at least 26 lives have been lost in floods and the total losses are over $4.5 billion. Significant interruption to businesses and transportation has also resulted in hardship in the basin and region after each flood event. 22 In Morris County, flooding from the Passaic River and Pompton Rivers affects the Boroughs of Riverdale, Lincoln Park, Florham Park Borough, and the Townships of Pequannock, Montville, East Hanover, Chatham and Long Hill Townships. Figure is a map highlighting the Morris County portion of the Passaic River. 21 PassaicRiver.com 22 USACE New York District. Passaic River Mainstem and Tributaries, New Jersey. Flood Damage Reduction and Restoration Projects Page 6-28

29 Figure Floodplain Map of the Morris County portion of the Passaic River (Sources: FEMA, NJDEP) Page 6-29

30 FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) insurance claims records and the Flood Insurance Studies (FIS) for the region indicate that the most severe flooding appears to be concentrated in the municipalities of Lincoln Park Borough and Pequannock Township. These municipalities are located in northeastern Morris County, and are within the area known as the central basin of the Triassic Lowlands Province, which is characterized by relatively flat topography. In the Borough of Lincoln Park, the Passaic River forms the southern boundary of the borough and flows from west to east. The Pompton River forms the eastern boundary, flowing from north to south. Low-lying areas of Lincoln Park are subject to periodic flooding caused by overbank flows from not only the Passaic River and Pompton Rivers but also the Beaver Dam Brook, East Ditch, and West Ditch. 23 In Pequannock Township, the Pequannock and Pompton Rivers flow north to south along the eastern boundary of the township. Low-lying areas of the Township of Pequannock are subject to periodic flooding caused by the overflow of the Pompton River, the Pequannock River, the Ramapo River, East Ditch, West Ditch, and the tributaries to East Ditch. 24 The largest flood on record in Morris County occurred in The Department of the Interior estimated the flood reoccurrence interval to be 100 years; it produced an estimated peak discharge of 39,800 cubic feet per second at the mouth of the Passaic River. More recent floods in 1968, 1971, 1972, 1973, two in 1975, 1984, 1999, 2005, and 2007 were sufficiently destructive to warrant Presidential-Disaster Declarations. Table identifies the flood damages estimated by the USACE New York District, within the Passaic River Basin for past flood events in 1984, 1999, 2005 and For comparison purposes, the figures have been adjusted by the USACE to October 2006 dollar values, and shows that the April 2007 flood was the most costly of the four most recent flood events. The USACE data did not indicate why the year 2006 was selected for the adjusted dollar values. Table Estimated Damages (In Millions of Dollars) within the Passaic River Basin for Flood Events in 1984, 1999, 2005, and 2007 (Source: USACE New York District) Date of Flood Event Estimated Damages (In Millions) April 7, 1984 $642 September 16, 1999 $261 April 2, 2005 $100 April 15, 2007 $686 Note: Estimated damages adjusted to October 2006 dollars. In September 1999 Tropical Storm Floyd (DR-1295) caused significant flooding in parts of Morris County. FEMA Public Assistance (PA) Project Worksheets (PWs) indicate that infrastructure damages in Morris County totaled just over $2 million. Of this amount, slightly less than $780,000 in damages occurred within municipalities bordering the Passaic or Pequannock Rivers. The downgraded hurricane resulted in over 10 of rain in parts of northeastern Morris County, flooding the low-lying areas adjacent to the River. 23 FEMA Lincoln Park Borough Flood Insurance Study (FIS), August 19, FEMA Pequannock FIS, September 17, 1992 Page 6-30

31 Table identifies the FEMA PA funds provided to municipalities located along the Passaic River after Tropical Storm Floyd. The damage descriptions from the PWs indicate that the majority of the damages are from flooding from the Passaic and Pequannock Rivers, but some damages were also attributable to flooding from other sources, such as water intrusion into buildings resulting from high winds and rain. The table shows that the highest amount of FEMA PA funds along the Passaic and Pequannock Rivers after Tropical Storm Floyd were provided to Pequannock Township. The PA funds for this applicant totaled $355,657 and were predominately for repairs to parks and recreational facilities (Category G) after the storm. This applicant is followed by the Pequannock, Lincoln Park, and Fairfield Sewage Authority with $233,249 in utility damages (Category F). The majority of the damages were associated with a wastewater treatment plant in Lincoln Park. 25 See Section 7 (Risk Assessment) of this Plan for a more detailed summary of the FEMA PWs for Morris County. Table Project Worksheet (PW) Summary for Hurricane Floyd (DR-1295) Applicants in Morris County along the Passaic and Pequannock Rivers, ordered by PW Total (Source: FEMA Region II PA Program) Applicant Name Cat. A Cat. B Cat. D Cat. E Cat. F Cat. G TOTAL Pequannock, Township of $94,108 $47,153 $0 $5,613 $0 $208,784 $355,657 Pequannock, Lincoln Park, Fairfield Sewage Authority $0 $31,407 $0 $8,442 $193,400 $0 $233,249 Lincoln Park, Borough of $46,647 $37,179 $0 $6,924 $0 $0 $90,749 Long Hill, Township of $29,310 $4,268 $0 $22,019 $0 $0 $55,597 Chatham, Borough of $0 $8,788 $14,261 $0 $0 $0 $23,049 Chatham, Township of $0 $11,109 $0 $0 $0 $0 $11,109 Chatham School District $0 $0 $0 $10,829 $0 $0 $10,829 Total $170,065 $139,903 $14,261 $53,826 $193,400 $208,784 $780,239 Note: No damages identified for Category C (Roads and Bridges) The FEMA PA categories are generally defined as follows Category A: Emergency work, primarily debris clearance. Category B: Emergency protective measures. Category C: Permanent repair work, roads and bridges. Category D: Permanent repair work, water control facilities. Category E: Permanent repair work, public buildings. Category F: Permanent repair work, utilities. Category G: Permanent repair work, parks and recreation facilities. The USACE New York District has studied the Passaic River basin extensively and developed plans to reduce flooding in the area as far back as As part of their analysis, the USACE has evaluated more than 150 plans in cooperation with the State of New Jersey, municipalities, and local groups. These plans include a full range of nonstructural alternatives such as buying out flood prone homes to provide protection on the main stem of the Passaic River and its major basin tributaries. In 1987, the State selected a dual inlet water diversion tunnel system as the centerpiece of an environmentally sound and a comprehensive flood damage reduction program for the basin FEMA Region II, Public Assistance Program 26 USACE New York District. Passaic River Mainstem and Tributaries, New Jersey. Flood Damage Reduction and Restoration Projects Page 6-31

32 The major elements of the Passaic River Main Stem flood damage reduction project consist of two underground tunnels, a 20.4 mile-long main tunnel 42-foot diameter and a 1.3 mile-long 23-foot diameter spur tunnel. The main tunnel would carry floodwaters from an inlet on the upper Pompton River in Wayne, New Jersey down to an outlet in Newark Bay. The spur tunnel would convey central basin floodwaters from an inlet just downstream of Two Bridges in Wayne, New Jersey to an underground connection with the main tunnel. The USACE indicates that the tunnels would cause minimal disruption to development and the environment along the Pompton River and Passaic River. Channel modifications would also be required to direct the flows into the tunnel inlets and levees and floodwalls would reduce flood damage in urban pockets not protected by the tunnel. The diversion tunnels and associated surface works are generally designed to protect against floods, ranging up to the 100-year event and reduce the impact of even larger floods. 27 The project also includes the acquisition of 5,350 acres of natural flood storage areas, 5,200 acres of which are wetlands and could conceivably be developed, worsening existing flood problems. The state will also continue to protect 6,300 floodway acres, thus avoiding any secondary development. About 9,500 acres of the central basin are already protected as designated parkland, bringing the total of natural flood storage areas that would be permanently protected to 21,000 acres. Since 1996, the state has requested that the USACE proceed with three elements of the Main Stem project. They are the Preservation of Natural Flood Storage Areas, the Joseph G. Minish Waterfront Park, and the Harrison Levee/Floodwall Project. A variety of other basin projects are currently underway or recently completed as reconnaissance studies, planning or feasibility studies, or design efforts. 28 Upper Rockaway River The Upper Rockaway River is located mostly within Morris County. The headwaters originate in Jefferson Township and flow in a southwesterly and then in an easterly direction, emptying into Boonton Reservoir. The river flows through the Townships of Jefferson, Rockaway, Denville, Boonton, Randolph, and the Boroughs of Wharton, Rockaway, and the Towns of Boonton and Dover. The USACE New York District indicates development in the basin and the floodplain as well as encroachment into the river and its tributaries has resulted in flooding in several areas in the basin. Flood damages have occurred to residential, commercial, industrial, and public properties. According to the USACE, over 1,000 structures are located within the 100-year floodplain of the Upper Rockaway River. In this region, some of the more significant flood events over the last 40 years occurred in 1971, 1973, 1977, 1979, 1984, 1996, 1999, and Between August 11and 14, 2000 a series of thunderstorms deluged parts of southeastern Sussex County and northwestern Morris County. The thunderstorms produced torrential downpours that resulted in extreme rainfall totals and devastating flooding along the Morris/Sussex County border in Jefferson Township. Figure is map of northern New Jersey identifying rainfall totals at 41 USGS gage stations after the event. The map shows rainfall totals near the Morris/Sussex County border in the northweastern part of the county ranged from 12" USACE New York District. Passaic River Mainstem and Tributaries, New Jersey. Flood Damage Reduction and Restoration Projects 28 USACE New York District. Passaic River Mainstem and Tributaries, New Jersey. Flood Damage Reduction and Restoration Projects 29 USACE New York District. Upper Rockaway River, Flood Damage Reduction and Environmental Restoration Feasibility Study 30 USGS. Sparta New Jersey Flood of August 11-14, 2000 Page 6-32

33 Figure USGS Rain Gage Totals for Northern New Jersey After the August 11-14, 2000 Flood Event (Source: USGS) Page 6-33

34 The damages from the August 2000 flood were extensive enough to warrant a Presidential Disaster Declaration (DR- 1337) for Morris, Sussex, and Somerset counties in northwest New Jersey. In Morris County, the FEMA Public Assistance PWs indicate the greatest infrastructure damages occurred in Jefferson Township where the rainfall totals were highest. The total damages in Jefferson Township were estimated at just over $340,000 more than half of the total PA provided to the county. The USACE New York District is currently conducting a feasibility study that primarily focuses on data gathering, updated hydrology and hydraulic modeling of the basin, and identification of potential environmental restoration sites. The Study also included the formulation of structural and non-structural alternatives for flood damage reduction. A final report is anticipated to be released to the public sometime in Additional measures have also been taken by other agencies to reduce flooding along the Upper Rockaway River. A report prepared by the Delaware River Basin Commission in 2006 indicated that a $432,082 grant (federal share) was recently awarded through FEMAs Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) program for the buyout of four structures along the Rockaway River in Boonton Town. 32 FEMAs FMA program was created as part of the National Flood Insurance Reform Act of 1994 with the goal of reducing or eliminating claims under the NFIP. There are three types of FMA grants, one of which is considered Project Grants for NFIP-participating communities with approved Flood Mitigation Plans to implement measures to reduce flood losses, such as elevation, acquisition, and relocation of NFIP-insured structures. Severity of the Flood Hazard Flood severity is measured in various ways, including frequency, depth, velocity, duration and contamination, among others. In Morris County, the metrics used to characterize the severity of the flood hazard depends on what part of the county is being considered, but generally the most important factor is how often floods occur. Floods have been and continue to be the most frequent, destructive, and costly natural hazard facing Morris County. Most recently, the county has been impacted by five significant flood events, in 1996, 1999, 2000, 2005, and With the exception of the 1903 event, Tropical Storm Floyd in September 1999 was the most severe on record along the Passaic River. The historic peak discharge of record along the Passaic at Little Falls was 31,700 cubic feet per second (CFS) during the November, 1903 flood. 33 In northwestern Morris County one of the more severe flood events was the August 11-14, 2000 flood event. Table summarizes the flood peaks for select USGS gage stations in northwestern Morris County during the August 11 14, 2000 flood event. 31 USACE New York District. Upper Rockaway River, Flood Damage Reduction and Environmental Restoration Feasibility Study 32 Report on Delaware River Flood Mitigation. NJ Flood Mitigation Task Force, August 22, USGS. Summary of April Flooding in New Jersey Page 6-34

35 Table Summary of Flood Peaks for Select USGS Gage Stations in Morris County During the August 11-14, 2000 Flood (Source: USGS, Sparta NJ Flood of August 11 14, 2000; Table 2) Gage Station # Station Name Green Pond Brook below Picatinny Lake at Picatinny Arsenal, New Jersey Rockaway River above reservoir at Boonton, New Jersey Rockaway River at Berkshire Valley, New Jersey (Roxbury Township) Musconetcong River at outlet of Lake Hopatcong, New Jersey *Indicates new Peak of record. Drainage Area (sq. miles) Peak Discharge (CFS) Peak Gage Height (Feet) Date of Peak Discharge Recurrence Interval (Years) * 3.83* 8/12/2000 N/A 116 2, /13/ ,500* 10.86* 8/13/ ,900* 10.74* 8/13/2000 >100 Impact on Life and Property Figures maintained by NCDC indicate that Morris County has experienced one death and seven injuries from past flood events. 34 Section 7 of this Plan includes a much more detailed discussion of flood impacts on the county, in particular the history of NFIP claims, and the number of FEMA repetitive loss properties. Table summarizes the flood events in Morris County that resulted in injuries. In addition to the two events listed in the table, one additional flood event on January 27, 1996 resulted in a death when a boat capsized on the Passaic River in Lincoln Park Borough. Table Flood Events Resulting in Injuries, Morris County, (Source: NOAA/NCDC) Note: Coded letters and numbers under Location or County column is a result of output from the NCDC query. See bullets following Table for column heading definitions. 34 NOAA/NCDC database Page 6-35

36 Occurrences of the Flood Hazard The NCDC database indicates that there have been 69 flood events in Morris County in the period from 1950 to June, 2008, with damages slightly under $81 million. Of these 69 events, five flood events between 1996 and 2007 have resulted in property damage. Flooding events causing property damage have occurred in 1996, 1999, 2000, 2005, and These events are listed in Table below. Note: additional flood events listed in the NCDC database may have resulted in property and infrastructure damages. Estimated property damages for these floods may not have been listed in the database because either the data was unavailable, or the damages were only minor and therefore not reported to the NCDC. Table Flood Events Resulting in Property Damage, Morris County, (Source: NOAA/NCDC) Note: Coded letters and numbers under Location or County column is a result of output from the NCDC query. See bullets following Table for column heading definitions. In addition to the 69 flood events listed in the NCDC database between 1993 and June, 2008, several of the municipality FIS studies and the USACE indicate that significant flood events also occurred in 1903, 1955, 1968, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1979 and The bullets below summarize the more recent floods in Morris County, including six of the eight events listed in the table immediately above. All six floods caused significant property and infrastructure damage that led to a Presidential-Disaster Declaration; the FEMA disaster number is identified after the date of each event. 1/19/1996 (DR-1088) Severe Storms and Flooding. The flash flooding of the afternoon and early evening of January 19, 1996 led to larger river flooding that extended through January 21. Strong southerly winds ushered very mild and moisture laden air into the region following a blizzard that hit New Jersey just days earlier. Street flooding became a major problem early on due to the rains and significant snowmelt. The worst damage occurred along the Delaware River which crested at its highest stages in most places since the summer of Widespread flooding along the Raritan River was considered the worst in Manville Borough (Somerset County) since Tropical Storm Doria in August In Morris County, dozens of people were evacuated along the Rockaway River in Denville Township and Boonton. There were numerous road washouts in Washington Township. Page 6-36

37 The Rockaway River below the Boonton Reservoir crested at 6.34 food stage is at 5. The Passaic River at Two Bridges crested at 9.65 on January 21, flood stage is estimated at 9. In Morris County, flood damages were estimated at $10.7 million /19/1996 (DR-1145) Severe Storms and Flooding. Heavy rains caused considerable urban and local drainage flooding as well flooding of most of the rivers and streams in the Passaic River Basin. The Netcong, Passaic, Rockaway and Whippany Rivers all exceeded flood stage. The hardest hit municipalities included the Townships of Denville, Hanover, Harding, Roxbury, Long Hill and the Borough of Florham Park and Hopatcong. The Stirling section of Long Hill Township was hard hit by flooding where four main roads were flooded. In Roxbury Township, basements in Succasunna and Port Morris had water up to 6 deep. Elsewhere in Roxbury Township, flooding along Ledgewood Circle reached some historical buildings for the first time in 20 years. Damages countywide were estimated at $1 million. 9/16/1999 (DR-1295) Hurricane Floyd. This downgraded fall hurricane put the entire Eastern Seaboard on flood watch, including every county in New Jersey. Although downgraded from a hurricane by the time it hit New Jersey, the storm lasted approximately 18 hours. Tropical Storm Floyd battered New Jersey and brought with it torrential and in some areas unprecedented and record breaking, rains, damaging winds, and flash flooding. Rainfall totals in Morris County were highest in Pequannock Township with 11 and Morris Plains Borough and Morristown, each with nearly nine inches. In the Passaic River Basin in Morris County, the Rockaway River above the Boonton Reservoir crested 6.3, estimated to be 1.3 above flood stage. In Pine Brook, the Passaic River crested at 20.8 with flood stage estimated at 19. The NCDC estimated damages in Morris County were estimated at $30 million. 36 8/12/2000 (DR-1337) Severe Storms and Flooding. A nearly unprecedented series of thunderstorms with torrential downpours produced rainfall totals of around 16 along the Morris/Sussex County border. Two to three inches of rain fell per hour at times and caused considerable, widespread and devastating flooding across southeastern Sussex County and western Morris County. Mud and rock slides exacerbated the damage. The NCCD database indicated this was approximately a one in a thousand year event. In Morris County, three bridges were destroyed, two dams were badly damaged, four others suffered some damage and about two dozen roads were closed or damaged. The torrential rain caused a record rise in Lake Hopatcong and lakeside flooding in Jefferson and Roxbury Townships. About 1,000 homes and businesses were damaged. Two houses were destroyed, 75 suffered major damage while 727 others suffered minor damage. Vehicles drove into flood waters after several roadways collapsed. About 150 persons were rescued from flood waters. Damage in the county was estimated at $12 million. 37 4/01/2005 (DR-1588) Severe Storms and Flooding. On April 2 and 3 heavy rains from an intense low pressure system caused widespread flooding throughout northern New Jersey. The New Jersey Office of Emergency Management estimated that the flooding forced 6,000 residents from their homes and caused a total of $60 million in damages. More than 3 of rain was recorded by rain gages in Morris, Passaic, and Sussex Counties. Contributing to widespread flooding was rapid snowmelt, brought on by a series of moderate to heavy rainfalls that lasted for two weeks. In Morris, Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, and Mercer counties, about 1,800 homes and businesses were flooded and 25 homes were destroyed. The northeastern part of Morris County was hit the hardest by flooding along the Pequannock, Pompton, and Passaic Rivers. Damage in Morris County was estimated at $1 million. 38 4/15/2007 (DR-1694) Severe Storms and Inland and Coastal Flooding. A seven-day nor easter deluged New Jersey with up to nine inches of rain, causing millions of dollars of damage and killing three residents. Statewide damage was estimated at $180 million. Flooding from the event forced about 1,000 people to be evacuated in Morris County. 35 NOAA/NCDC database 36 NOAA/NCDC database 37 NOAA/NCDC database 38 NOAA/NCDC database Page 6-37

38 Evacuations occurred in Lincoln Park, Pequannock, Parsippany, Denville, Hanover, and East Hanover. In addition, about 100 businesses along New Jersey State Route 23 suffered flood damage. In Lincoln Park, flooding along the Pompton River severely affected the borough. About 1,000 homes were damaged with water up to five feet in some homes. An estimated 24 roads were closed including access roads to New Jersey State Routes 23 and Interstate 80. In Pequannock Township, approximately 400 homes were damaged. In Parsippany Township, about 450 homes and apartments were flooded. The Whippany River overtopped its banks and flooded backyards and basements in Morristown. In Denville Township, flooding along the Den Brook and Rockaway River closed many roads. In Montville Township, roads and properties were flooded in the Pine Brook area along the Passaic River. In Randolph Township, Shongum Lake overflowed. 39 Information provided by the NFIP can be used as an indicator of the potential for flooding in Morris County, and the amount of damage it has caused in the past. Review of prior NFIP flood claims can also help reveal areas of the county that are vulnerable to damages from flooding. In recent years, FEMA has focused considerable attention on insured, repetitive loss (RL) properties. By definition, these are properties that have had two or more flood insurance claim payments of at least $1,000 each over a ten-year period. In Morris County, 589 residential and commercial properties have been identified as repetitive loss properties. Collectively, claim holders have received payments of just over $31.4 million (the figure includes claim payments for both building and contents damages). Based on past and recent history, certain parts of Morris County clearly have a high probability of flooding repeatedly in the future. Several areas adjacent to the Passaic River and its tributaries and portions of the Pequannock River in the northeastern part of the county have flooded numerous times in the past. Severe flooding in Morris County five out of the last twelve years suggests that the repeated flooding in specific areas is likely to occur again in the future. 39 NOAA/NCDC database Page 6-38

39 6.3.7 Hail Description of the Hail Hazard Hail is a form of precipitation comprised of spherical lumps of ice. Known as hailstones, these ice balls typically range from 5 mm 50 mm in diameter on average, with much larger hailstones forming in severe thunderstorms. The size of hailstones is a direct function of the severity and size of the storm. See Appendix D for a more detailed description and definition of the hail hazard. Location of the Hail Hazard Hailstorms occur more frequently during the late spring and early summer, when the jet stream migrates northward across the Great Plains. This period has extreme temperature changes from the ground surface upward into the jet stream, which produces the strong updraft winds needed for hail formation. The land area affected by individual hail events is not much smaller than that of a parent thunderstorm, an average of 15 miles in diameter around the center of a storm. The potential for hail exists over the entire planning area, although the probability is relatively low compared to other parts of the United States. There are at least a few occurrences of hail almost every year in the planning area, although for the most part they are minor. Severity of the Hail Hazard The severity of hailstorms is measured by duration, size of the hail itself, and geographic extent. All of these factors are directly related to the weather phenomena that create the hail, thunderstorms. There is wide potential variation in these severity components. The planning area has a relatively low potential for significant hail events, based on previous records. Impact on Life and Property There are no known instances of injuries or death from hail events in Morris County. The NCDC database indicates there has been no reported property damage in Morris County from hail events. Presumably there are some damages, but most of these are likely addressed by citizens or insurance companies, and therefore there is no readily available open source record of damages. Damages that do occur are presumably orders of magnitude less than other hazards such as floods or hurricane winds. Page 6-39

40 Occurrences of the Hail Hazard The National Climatic Data Center reported 28 hail events in Morris County from the period 1950 through June, Hailstone sizes from the 28 events ranged in diameter from 0.75' to 2.75'. Table summarizes all Morris County hail events. Table Hail Events, Morris County, (Source: NOAA/NCDC) Note: See bullets following Table for column heading definitions. Based on historical records from the NCDC database, the future probability of hail events in Morris County is relatively high. Based on past events, hail events occur approximately every two years. However, property damage and impact to life in Morris County is considered minimal compared to the potential damage from other hazards. Page 6-40

41 6.3.8 Hazardous Materials Release Fixed Site Description of the Hazardous Material Release Fixed Site Hazard Hazardous materials come in the form of explosives, flammable, and combustible substances, poisons, and radioactive materials. These substances are most often released as a result of transportation accidents or because of chemical accidents in plants. Hazardous materials in various forms can cause death, serious injury, long-lasting health effects, and damage to buildings, homes, and other property. Many products containing hazardous chemicals are used and stored in homes routinely. These products are also shipped daily on the nation's highways, railroads, waterways, and pipelines. This section focuses on those hazardous materials that occur at facilities which are known as fixed site. The next section (6.3.10) addresses hazardous materials as they relate to transportation routes (off-site). See Appendix D for a more detailed description of the hazardous materials fixed site hazard. Location of the Hazardous Material Release Fixed Site Hazard Although there is no single, comprehensive source of open-source information about hazardous materials in the state, there are several specific sources that can be queried, and the results combined into a common summary. These sources include the FEMA HAZUS software, the Right-to-Know (RTK) Network (which also acts as a switchboard for access to several other related databases), and local officials responsible for administering the Right to Know Hazardous Substance List (RTKHSL) under the New Jersey Worker and Community Right to Know Act. The paragraphs below describe sources of information about hazardous materials in New Jersey. Right to Know Hazardous Substance List The 2007 RTKHSL contains 2,455 hazardous substances and can be found on the State of New Jersey Department of Health and Senior Services website at located at: FEMA HAZUS In the spring of 2008 HAZUS version MR1 (v.1.1) was queried to identify hazardous materials for each county in New Jersey. Review of the HAZUS technical manual indicates that the source data for the hazardous materials is from the United States Environmental Prorection Agency (EPA) Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) database queried for the year 1999 (see description under Right-to-Know subsection below and past occurrences of hazardous materials fixe site). The HAZUS database of hazardous material facilities is limited to facilities where large quantities of chemicals that are considered highly toxic, flammable or highly explosive are stored. 40 The technical documentation recommends that the database be supplemented by local information about hazardous material sites to perform a more detailed vulnerability assessment. Table summarizes the HAZUS results for municipalities identified as having hazardous material facilities in Morris County. Although the HAZUS database includes specific chemical and company names, the results have been summarized to include only the municipality name, number of facilities, and chemical quantities (in pounds). 40 HAZUS Technical Manual, Chapter 10 Hazardous Materials Release Page 6-41

42 More detailed information about the results of the HAZUS query can be obtained from the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management. It should be noted that because of the processes involved in updating HAZUS, data included in periodic updates is frequently not as current as what is available on various State databases. HAZUS is used in this case because it offers the only single countywide database of materials inventories. The RTK Network (described below) supports more detailed site-specific data searches, and is the recommended resource for most planning purposes. Table Morris County: HAZUS Hazardous Material Inventory (Source: HAZUS version MR1 (v.1.1)) City/Municipality Name No. of Facilities Chemical Quantities (Pounds) Boonton, Township of 8 2 Butler, Borough of 8 1 Cedar Knolls (Hanover Township) 9 1 Chatham, Township of 20 1 Dover, Town of 17 1 East Hanover, Township of 22 3 Flanders (Mount Olive Township) 10 1 Florham Park, Borough of 32 3 Long Valley (Washington Township) 6 1 Mine Hill, Township of 12 1 Montville, Township of 4 1 Morris Plains, Borough of 3 1 Morristown, Town of 4 1 Mount Olive, Township of 4 1 Netcong, Borough of 8 1 Parsippany-Troy Hills, Township of 23 3 Riverdale, Borough of 4 1 Rockaway, Township of 18 3 Total The Right-to-Know Network The RTK Network contains data related to hazardous materials that has been compiled from various EPA databases. Several databases from the RTK site include the following Toxic Release Inventory. Releases and transfers of toxic chemicals from large facilities. See Occurrences of Hazardous Materials Release Fixed Site for additional details about the TRI database and releases for Morris County. Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Information System (CERCLIS). Information on potential and actual Superfund Sites. The majority of the sites listed for Morris County are labeled as having an EPA status of No further Remedial Action Planned on the National Priority List. Page 6-42

43 Emergency Response Notification System. Toxic Chemicals and spills reported to the National Response Center. See past Occurrences of Hazardous Materials Release Transportation for additional details about this database and a list of past transportation incidents in Morris County. Facility Registry System. Names, addresses, and ID numbers of all facilities regulated by the EPA. Biennial Reporting System (BRS). The BRS is one of EPA's primary tools for tracking the generation, shipment, and receipt of hazardous waste. The BRS appears to be the best United States. hazardous waste tracking database. It contains information from the Hazardous Waste Reports that must be filed every two years under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act RCRA program. The RCRA is the Federal statute that regulates the generation, treatment, storage, disposal, or recycling of solid and hazardous waste. Facilities must report their activities involving hazardous waste to BRS if they fulfill one of two criteria: they are a Large Quantity Generator (LQG) of waste, or they treated, stored, or disposed of RCRA hazardous waste on site in units subject to RCRA permitting requirements. A Large Quantity Generator is defined as any site that generates more than 2,200 lbs of RCRA waste in a single month, accumulates more than 2.2 pounds of RCRA acute hazardous waste in any single month, or accumulates more than 220 lbs of spill cleanup material contaminated with RCRA acute hazardous waste in any month. The RTK site includes BRS records from 1989 through Each of the databases listed can be queried from the following website: Table provides a summary of the waste generated in Morris County for the years 2001, 2003, and 2005 from the BRS. The table identifies federal tons managed and generated for each of these reporting years. The database identifies the total and federal waste generated. Federal waste includes only those wastes that have a Federal EPA waste code those that do not are wastes regulated by an individual state only. The table shows that over the three reporting years the number of waste facilities has dropped from a high of 55 in 2001, to a low of 40 in For all three reporting years the highest amount of waste was produced in Flanders, an unincorporated area located in the Townships of Mount Olive and Roxbury. Page 6-43

44 Table Hazardous Waste Tons Generated and Tons Managed by Municipality: Morris County, (Source: RTKnet.org Biennial Reporting System) Federal Federal Federal Federal Federal City / Municipality Name # of # of Federal Tons # of Tons Tons Tons Tons Tons Facilities Facilities Generated Facilities Generated Managed Managed Generated Managed Boonton, Township of Butler, Borough of Cedar Knolls (Hanover Township) Chatham, Township of Chester, Borough of Denville, Township of Dover, Town of East Hanover, Township of Flanders (Mount Olive/Roxbury Townships) 2 6, , , , , , Florham Park, Borough of Hanover, Township of Jefferson, Township of Kenvil (Roxbury Township) 1 1, , Long Valley (Washington Township) Mine Hill, Township of Montville, Township of Morris Plains, Borough of , , Morristown, Town of Mount Olive, Township of Parsippany-Troy Hills, Township of Randolph, Township of Rockaway, Township of 6 1, , Roxbury, Town of Washington, Township of Page 6-44

45 Federal Federal Federal Federal Federal City / Municipality Name # of # of Federal Tons # of Tons Tons Tons Tons Tons Facilities Facilities Generated Facilities Generated Managed Managed Generated Managed Wharton, Borough of Whippany (Hanover Township) Total 55 12, , , , , , Page 6-45

46 Severity of the Hazardous Material Release Fixed Site Hazard The severity of a hazardous material release relates primarily to its impact on human safety and welfare and on the threat to the environment. Threat to Human Safety and Welfare Poisoning of water or food sources and/or supply Presence of toxic fumes or explosive conditions Damage to personal property Need for the evacuation of people Interference with public or commercial transportation Threat to the environment Injury or loss of animals or plants or habitats that are of economic or ecological importance such as; commercial, recreation or subsistence fisheries (marine plants, crustaceans, shellfish, aquaculture facilities) or livestock; seal haul outs; and marine bird rookeries Impact to recreational areas such as public beaches Impact to ecological reserves, forests, parks, archaeological, and cultural sites One method of classifying incident severity is by ranking from 1 to 4, with a Level 1 incident considered minor; a Level 2, moderate; a Level 3, major; and a Level 4 severe. Thresholds depend on the type of incident and hazards. Incidents categorized as minor or moderate are often associated with known hazardous materials and limited in the area impacted. Incidents categorized as major or severe are typically associated with a fire, explosion, or toxic cloud that impacts a large area, possibly disrupting essential services. Events of this magnitude present an immediate danger to the public, potentially causing deaths and injuries and may require the evacuation of large numbers of the population. Emergency response by local agencies will require assistance from outside resources to adequately respond to the incident. In Morris County the severity of hazardous material releases can be ranked by several methods. The EPA Toxic TRI database within the RTK Network described above ranks the top cities for on-site releases, the top chemicals released, and the top companies for releases. The following two tables (Tables and ) display the top five on-site releases and the top five chemicals released in Morris County between 1987 and The results from the TRI database show that Kenvil in Roxbury Township released approximately 6.7 million pounds during this time period, followed by East Hanover Township with roughly 2.5 million pounds. The top chemical released during this same time period was acetone. Acetone is a colorless, mobile, flammable liquid that is in nail polish remover, glues, and paint thinner. Page 6-46

47 Table Morris County: Top 5 Municipalities for On-Site Releases, (Source: RTK Network Toxic Release Inventory) City Name Quantity Releases (Pounds) Kenvil (Roxbury Township) 6,729,135 East Hanover, Township of 2,547,100 Butler, Borough of 2,358,482 Rockaway, Township of 1,313,304 Parsippany-Troy Hills, Township of 580,185 Table Morris County: Top Chemicals for On-Site Releases, (Source: RTK Network TRI) Chemical Name Quantity Releases (Pounds) Acetone 6,823,872 Methyl ethyl ketone 2,172,604 Aluminum oxide (fibrous forms) 1,763,695 Zinc compounds 1,543,500 Methyl isobutyl ketone 1,259,532 Impact on Life and Property Hazardous materials incidents (fixed sites) refers to uncontrollable releases of hazardous materials at a facility, which poses a risk to the health, safety, property, and the environment (MSP/EMD). The most well-known example of a large-scale fixed-site hazardous materials incident is that which occurred at the Union Carbide plant in Bhopal, India in This incident caused 2,500 deaths and injuries to many others. Although incidences of this scale are fairly rare, smaller-scale incidents those requiring a response and evacuation or other protective measures are relatively common. Table below illustrates the relatively small number of hazardous materials related incidents that led to a Presidentially-Declared Disaster. Page 6-47

48 Table Hazmat Related Federal Disaster Declarations (Source: FEMA) DR - Number Declared State Description /10/1998 Kansas Kansas Grain Elevator Explosion /16/1992 Rhode Island Water Contamination /04/1987 Wyoming Methane Gas Seepage /17/1981 Kentucky Sewer Explosion, Toxic Waste /21/1980 New York Chemical Waste, Love Canal /07/1978 New York Chemical Waste, Love Canal /05/1962 Louisiana Chlorine Barge Accident /10/1962 Mississippi Chlorine Barge Accident The Office of Hazardous Materials Safety (United States Department of Transportation (USDOT)) tracks hazardous materials incidents by state. New Jersey has had 65 major incidents since 2001, with 10 injuries reported, and damages totaling $5,739,540, an annual average of $819,934. Based on the moderate intensity of mixed land use in Morris County (including heavy industrial and commercial uses), the likelihood for continued hazardous material incidents to occur is high within the planning area. Section 7 of this Plan includes a more detailed discussion related to the impacts of hazardous materials within Morris County. Occurrences of the Hazardous Material Release Fixed Site Hazard To identify past occurrences for fixed sites in Morris County, the TRI Explorer database was queried from the EPA s website. Beginning in 1986, as part of the Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-know Act (EPCRA), certain industries as well as federal facilities have been required to report the locations and quantities of chemicals stored onsite to state and local governments in order to help communities prepare to respond to chemical spills and similar emergencies. EPCRA Section 313 requires the EPA and the states to annually collect data on releases and transfers of certain toxic chemicals from industrial facilities, and make the data available to the public as part of the TRI. 41 In 1990 Congress passed the Pollution Prevention Act which required that additional data on waste management and source reduction activities be reported under the TRI program. For Morris County, the TRI database was queried for the years 2000 through 2006, the most recent year available. For years , the results of the query are summarized below in Table The total onsite and off-site disposal or releases is reported in pounds, and includes facilities for all industries and chemicals in Morris County. The table results show the number of facilities reported in the TRI database for Morris County between 2000 and 2006 has remained fairly constant fluctuating from a high of 41 to a low of 36. Although the number of facilities has remained relatively constant, the quantity of the combined on and off-site disposal and releases has declined from a high of 548,878 pounds in 2000 to a low of 271,411 pounds in EPA Toxic Release Inventory Program Page 6-48

49 Table Morris County Toxic Release Inventory, Summary of On-site and Off-site Reported Disposed of or Otherwise Released (in pounds) (Source: EPA TRI Database) Year # of Facilities Reported (TRI Explorer) Total On-site Disposal or Other Releases (Pounds) Total Off-site Disposal or Other Releases (Pounds) Total On- and Off-site Disposal or Other Releases (Pounds) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,411 Total ,253 2,259,741 2,707,994 The details of the query for year 2006 are included in Appendix E. The table includes the facility address, type of chemical disposed or released, and the quantity of on and off-site releases. The Morris County results for 2006 have been included as a sample, the details for other years can be found by querying the TRI Explorer database within the EPA s website. The database can be queried by navigating to the EPA-TRI home page located at and selecting Get TRI Data from the menu on the left side of the page. Then select the link TRI Explorer, and Facility from the reports menu. The reduction in releases for Morris County can also be shown graphically by displaying the TRI trend for a list of core chemicals during the period 1987 to For standard comparison purposes, the core chemical list excludes chemicals that have been added or removed within the reporting period. The core chemical restriction is applied to all RTK bar charts that display yearly trends. Figure illustrates that over the past 20 years the pounds released in Morris County have dramatically been reduced from the peak years in The trend downward continued in the early 1990s, and remained fairly constant in the late 1990s and 2000s. Figure Morris County Toxic Release Inventory Trend (Core Chemicals), (Source: RTK Network TRI) Page 6-49

50 6.3.9 Hazardous Materials Release Transportation Description of the Hazardous Material Release Transportation Hazard As described in section 6.3.9, hazardous materials come in the form of explosives, flammable, and combustible substances, poisons, and radioactive materials. These substances are most often released as a result of transportation accidents or because of chemical accidents in plants. Hazardous materials in various forms can cause death, serious injury, long-lasting health effects, and damage to buildings, homes, and other property. Many products containing hazardous chemicals are used and stored in homes routinely. These products are also shipped daily on the nation's highways, railroads, waterways, and pipelines. This section deals those hazardous materials as they relate to transportation routes (off-site). Hazardous materials release-transportation incidents refer to uncontrollable releases of hazardous materials during transport, which pose a risk to the health, safety, property, and the environment. Small-scale incidents those that require a response and implementation of evacuation procedures or other protective actions are somewhat common along major US highways, but can also occur through other modes of transportation including rail, water transport (shipping and ferries), air, and pipelines. Data collected by the USDOT shows that transportation related hazardous materials incidents are much more likely to occur on highways than through any other mode of transport. See Appendix D for a more detailed description of the hazardous materials fixed site hazard. Location of the Hazardous Material Release Transportation Hazard In Morris County, hazardous materials are transported along the county highways, railways, utility transmission pipelines and vessels traveling navigable waterways. In addition, chemicals can also be transported throughout Morris County and the region by air transportation. Severity of the Hazardous Material Release Transportation Hazard Similar to the fixed site hazardous material releases, the severity of a hazardous material release relates primarily to its impact on human safety and welfare and on the threat to the environment. Threat to Human Safety and Welfare Poisoning of water or food sources and/or supply Presence of toxic fumes or explosive conditions Damage to personal property Need for the evacuation of people Interference with public or commercial transportation Page 6-50

51 Threat to the environment Injury or loss of animals or plants or habitats that are of economic or ecological importance such as; commercial, recreation, or subsistence fisheries (marine plants, crustaceans, shellfish, aquaculture facilities) or livestock; seal haul outs; and marine bird rookeries Impact to recreational areas such as public beaches Impact to ecological reserves, forests, parks, archaeological, and cultural sites One method of classifying incident severity is by ranking from 1 to 4, with a Level 1 incident considered minor; a Level 2, moderate; a Level 3, major; and a Level 4 severe. Thresholds depend on the sort of incident and hazards. Incidents categorized as minor or moderate are often associated with known hazardous materials and limited in the area impacted. Incidents categorized as major or severe are typically associated with a fire, explosion, or toxic cloud that impacts a large area, possibly disrupting essential services. Events of this magnitude present an immediate danger to the public, potentially causing deaths and injuries and may require the evacuation of large numbers of the population. Emergency response by local agencies will require assistance from outside resources to adequately respond to the incident. Impact on Life and Property Table shows the reported hazardous materials incidents nationwide between 1983 and Within the graphic, the transportation related incidents are shaded green. This data shows that the vast majority of hazardous materials incidents relate to highway born transport. The data also visually demonstrates that the number of hazardous materials incidents has been steadily increasing since the 1980s as the interstate commerce has increased. As northern New Jersey, and Morris County, continues to grow and maintain its importance as part of a transportation corridor, the likelihood for transportation related hazardous materials releases will continue to grow. Page 6-51

52 Table Reported Hazardous Materials Incidents, (Source: Office of Hazardous Materials Safety) Occurrences of the Hazardous Material Release Transportation Hazard To identify past hazardous material transportation incidents for Morris County the EPA Emergency Response Notification System (ERNS) database was queried from the Right-to-Know website. The ERNS database is a database of incidents reported to the National Response Center. The National Response Center is operated by the U.S. Coast Guard, and has become the central point of contact used for the reporting of many different kinds of incidents involving hazardous materials. 42 The database includes 12 incident types including vessels (ships), railroads, pipelines, and surface transportation. Table summarizes the past hazardous materials transportation incidents for Morris County between 1990 and The table lists 18 prior incidents, most of which involved tractor-trailer accidents. There are probably additional incidents (and incident types) that are not reported in the database. However, this was the best available data at the time this Hazard Mitigation Plan was developed. Future Plan updates will review the available data sources and integrate any additional incidents that may be identified. 42 Right-to-Know Network Emergency Response Notification System database Page 6-52

53 Incident Date 11/8/1990 3/4/1992 Table Morris County Transportation Incidents, (Source: RTKnet.org Emergency Response Notification System) City Near Location Incident Description Incident Location Parsippany-Troy Hills, Township of Parsippany-Troy Hills, Township of 12/20/1993 Denville, Township of 8/29/1994 Morristown, Town of Tractor-trailer fuel tank ruptured when vehicle crossed railroad tracks. Tractor-trailer tanker accident. Cardboard package leaked while being shipped. Tractor-trailer hit a curb at rest stop area and broke crossover valve on its fuel tanks. Fuel oil capacity of tractor-trailer is 200 gallons. Oil leaked into nearby storm drain. 10/17/1995 Mount Olive, Township of Semi-truck involved in an accident. 1/22/1996 Long Hill, Township of 2/14/1996 Riverdale, Borough of 9/20/1996 Montville, Township of 12/16/1996 Mount Arlington, Borough of 1/30/2001 Morris, Township of 9300 gallon tanker struck a fire hydrant. Gasoline leaking from transport tank. The saddle tanks of a tractor-trailer were released from the truck as a result of an accident. A 55-gallon drum shifted in a trailer during transport. Trade name for the product released is accelerator gallons escaped the trailer and onto the concrete. Fuel oil spilled after a traffic Accident involving a tractor-trailer. Oil leaking from a truck's fuel pump spilled onto the roadway and into an adjacent storm drain. The 3-M Company. 75 Lakawana Avenue Exit Ramp of North to 1-80 West Denville Post. 18th Church Street Amount Of Material Released Name of Material 30 gallons Diesel Oil 356 gallons Isopropyl alcohol Unknown quantity Polychlorinated Biphenyls North (Rest Area) 175 gallons Diesel Oil Highway Northbound 660 Valley Road 10 gallons Exit 23 off route 287 North 34 Cahpin Road 30 gallons 150 gallons Diesel Oil Automotive gasoline (unleaded) 200 gallons Diesel Oil Toxic Liquid Inorganic - Sodium Hydroxide 1-80 Eastbound, Exit gallons Diesel Oil Unknown 191 East Hanover Avenue 30 gallons Diesel Oil Remedial Action 3-M company hired contractor to respond and clean up site. Fire department used containment booms and pads to secure leak. Product was transloaded to another vehicle and truck uprighted. Spill isolated and material cleaned up. NJDEP responded and assisted with cleanup. Environmental cleanup contactor erected berm to prevent further oil into storm drain. Sorbents used to remove oil. Contractor responded and cleaned up site. Fire department responded to scene. Contractor responded and cleaned up site. Contractor responded and cleaned up site. The spill has been contained around the truck. Skimming the oil to avoid it from going into the adjacent river. Page 6-53

54 Incident Date 6/22/2001 Denville, Township of 1/9/2002 Unknown 8/26/2004 Roxbury, Township of 1/14/2005 Harding, Township of 5/17/2006 City Near Location Incident Description Incident Location Parsippany-Troy Hill, Township of 6/28/2006 Morristown, Town of 10/20/2006 Netcong, Borough of 10/31/2007 Morristown, Town of A gasoline tanker truck overturned and caught fire. A box truck carrying a tote with motor oil had a valve come off and the material discharged from the rear of the truck. Two tractor-trailers crashed near exit 27 on 1-80 in Roxbury Township, sending one tumbling down an embankment. One of the trucks was carrying nitrogen sulfate. One of the tractor-trailer drivers was killed. Driver was transporting nuclear medicine to a hospital when he struck a tree. The road was blocked by the tree and a fallen power line. None of the nuclear medicine was released into the environment. Radiation readings were normal in the vicinity of a vehicle. The material was stored in ammo boxes, no damage was apparent. The material was technetium 99M with a 6HR half life. No injuries or evacuations reported. Tractor-trailer was involved in a motor vehicle accident, rupturing a saddle tank and releasing diesel fuel. A tractor trailer jackknifed causing release of motor oil and diesel oil. A release of materials onto the ground and into a catch basin from a saddle tank on a vehicle due to transport accident. A release of materials onto the ground from a vehicle due to a rollover resulting in a transport accident. Milepost 39. Interstate 80- Westbound Interstate 80 Mile Marker 37.6 Westbound I-80 at exit 27 RT Southbound near MM North at Exit 36 B. Near Whippany Creek 1-80 West Bound. Mile marker 27. Route 78 and 287 Westbound Amount Of Material Released 9 gallons Name of Material Automotive gasoline 200 gallons Motor oil Unknown quantity Unknown quantity Unknown Material Unknown 175 gallons Oil, Fuel; No. 1-D 10 gallons Motor oil 122 gallons Diesel Oil 24 tons Chromium Waste Code #D007 Remedial Action Fire extinguished. Contractor responded and cleaned up site. Unknown Tree was removed from roadway. Packages were removed and recovered by owner and returned for inspection. Morris County Hazmat team used containment booms in several locations to contain spill. Storm drains were cleaned and then flushed to collect the product. Morris County Hazmat team used containment booms to contain spill. Morris County Hazmat team used containment booms and absorbents to contain spill. Unknown Page 6-54

55 High Wind Straight Line Winds (Includes Hurricane, Nor easter, Tropical Storm, and Thunderstorms) Description of the Straight Line Winds Hazard For the purpose of this hazard mitigation Plan, straight-line winds are defined as all winds that are not related to tornadoes. This includes winds from hurricanes, nor easters, tropical storms, and thunderstorms. The first three hazards noted here can all be categorized as tropical cyclones, and are defined as originating over tropical/subtropical waters and having an organized, cyclonic surface wind circulation. As discussed elsewhere in this Plan (in the present Section 6, and in Appendix D), hurricanes are defined as warm-core tropical cyclones with wind speeds of at exceeding 74 mph. Nor easters are cyclonic storms that typically track up the east coast of the United States, (often in winter) and often are first felt as a northeast wind. Tropical storms are warm-core tropical cyclones with sustained winds of at least 39 mph (but less than hurricane force winds). Thunderstorms are local storms produced by cumulonimbus clouds, and always accompanied by lightning and thunder. Notably, the first three of these hazards (in particular hurricanes and tropical storms) are measured and categorized primarily by their wind speed. This is also the case with thunderstorms, although as with the other hazards, their severity is also measured by rainfall. These four wind hazards are differentiated from tornadoes in that they are characterized by winds that tend to be in one general direction, rather than by highly localized, high-intensity cyclonic wind flows, as is the case with tornadoes (although in many cases the other events spawn tornadoes). See Appendix D for a more detailed discussion of high wind straight- line winds. Location of the Straight-Line Winds Hazard The entire planning area is subject to the wind effects from hurricanes, nor easters, tropical storms, other severe events. The hurricane and tropical storm risk in the United States extends along the entire east coast from Maine to Florida, the Gulf Coast (including Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, and Texas), and Hawaii. The northeast United States is at a moderate risk based on historical storm tracks and the number of hurricanes that have made landfall along the Atlantic coastline. Figure shows how the frequency and strength of extreme windstorms vary across the United States. The map is based on a combination of all past occurrences and shows that New Jersey falls within the hurricane susceptible region (shown as cross-hatching). New Jersey is also within wind Zone II, where wind speeds can reach as high as 160 mph Source: FEMA, Wind Zone map Page 6-55

56 Figure Wind Zones in the United States (Source: FEMA) The high wind risk from nor easters extends along the entire east coast. Nor easters typically occur during the winter months and wind speeds can potentially reach hurricane force. The entire planning area is equally at risk from severe thunderstorms. Severity of the Straight-Line Winds Hazard The severity of the wind hazard is measured primarily by velocity, although effects are clearly exacerbated by duration and the presence of windborne debris. As discussed in Section 7, inland New Jersey is not particularly prone to high wind hazards, but occasionally tropical storms or thunderstorms are severe enough to cause moderate damage in the area. The eastern portion of Morris County is potentially more vulnerable from the high winds associated with hurricanes, nor easters, and tropical storms, which often follow along the coast. Page 6-56

57 Impact on Life and Property The NCDC database indicates that Morris County has experienced 204 thunderstorm and high wind events between 1950 and June, During this period there were 13 deaths, 34 injuries and just over $8 million in property damage. The information in the NCDC database, reflect a significant part of the costs of recovery from strong winds. However, there are also very significant costs associated with interrupted business, lost wages, lost tax base, etc. that are very difficult to quantify but are nevertheless important metrics for determining the severity of the risk. Of these 204 events, a total of 11 events have exceeded 69 mph since These six events are summarized in Table below. Table High Wind Events Over 69 mph, Excluding Tornado Winds, Morris County, (Source: NOAA/NCDC) Note: Coded letters and numbers under Location or County column is a result of output from the NCDC query. See bullets following Table for column heading definitions. To protect life and property from wind events, all counties within the State of New Jersey, including Morris County, are required to comply with the design wind loads developed by the International Building Code (IBC) and the International Residential Code (IRC). The building code administered within the incorporated areas of Morris County requires all new construction to be designed and constructed to either 90 or 100 mph wind loads. 44 Figure identifies the minimum design wind speeds for New Jersey. 44 NJ Department of Community Affairs-Division of Codes and Standards: Bulletin No. 3-4 Wind Speed Map Page 6-57

58 Figure American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) New Jersey Wind Zone Map (Source: ASCE Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and other Structures) Occurrences of the Straight-Line Winds Hazard Between 1950 and 2007, there have been numerous hurricanes, nor easters, tropical storms, and severe storms that have impacted all or part of Morris County. The NCDC database shows that Morris County has been impacted by no hurricanes or tropical storm events between 1950 and June, In addition to the NCDC database, NOAA s Historic Hurricane Tracks database was also queried to identify past hurricane events that have impacted Morris County between 1960 and The query results identified 11 hurricanes or tropical storms that impacted Morris County during this time period. Most of these events were downgraded to a tropical depression or less by the time they reached New Jersey. The NWS, NOAA, and the NCDC do not specifically track nor easter events. However, the one coastal flooding event listed for Morris County within the Ocean and Lake Surf category of the NCDC database along with other open data sources indicates there have been numerous nor easters in the past that have impacted the planning area with high winds. Some of the larger nor easter events occurred in years 1993, 1996, 2006, and Page 6-58

59 As mentioned above, there have been 204 thunderstorm and high wind events between 1950 and June, Several of the hurricane, tropical storm, and nor easter events are highlighted below. September 27, 1985 Hurricane Gloria. After brushing the outer banks of North Carolina the storm moved northward just off the Atlantic coast until making landfall as a Category 2 Hurricane near western Long Island, New York. Along the coastline of northern New Jersey sustained winds were approximately 80 mph with gusts over 100 mph. Hurricane Gloria caused one of the largest single power outages at the time, including about 230,000 customers in New Jersey. March 16, 1993 (Storm of the Century). One of the most intense nor easters to ever effect the United States. The Storm of the Century label was given to the event due to the record low pressure, wind speeds, temperature and snowfall. Fallen trees from high winds left three million customers without electrical power 45. Wind gusts of over 70 mph were reported at New York City s LaGuardia airport. October 18, A five day nor easter that lasted from October 18-October 23. Record rainfall, flooding, and high winds effected parts of New Jersey from Morris County to Camden County to Hunterdon County. September 18, Tropical Storm Isabel. Isabel made landfall as a hurricane near Drum Inlet, North Carolina on the 18th and weakened as it tracked farther inland. Winds gusted were recorded up to 62 mph in New Jersey. This resulted in widespread downed trees, tree limbs and power lines. It was one of the worst power outages on record for area utilities. Jersey Central Power and Light reported that 220,000 of its customers lost power while Conectiv Energy reported about 162,000 of its customers lost power. February 12, A Nor easter that impacted the New Jersey shoreline with strong onshore winds that caused coastal flooding and beach erosion. The planning area has been impacted by 11 hurricanes or tropical storms over the last 47 years, an average of one of these events about every four years. However, as mentioned, almost all had been downgraded to tropical storm or tropical depression status by the time they reached New Jersey. The county can be considered at low to moderate risk of experiencing the high wind effects from such tropical events. The area is also at moderate risk from nor easters, which impact the state once or twice a year, although there is no exact definition of a nor easter.. Not all of these relatively common events are severe enough to cause damage or result in disaster declarations. Morris County has been impacted by high winds from four strong nor easters over the past 15 years, an average of one event approximately every four years. Note that Section 7 of this hazard mitigation Plan includes a more detailed discussion about wind risk in Morris County High Wind Tornado Description of the Tornado Hazard A tornado is a violent windstorm characterized by a twisting, funnel-shaped cloud extending to the ground. Tornadoes are most often generated by thunderstorm activity (but they also result from hurricanes and other tropical storms) when cool, dry air intersects and overrides a layer of warm, moist air forcing the warm air to rise rapidly. The damage caused by a tornado is a result of the high wind velocity and wind-blown debris. The destruction caused by tornadoes ranges from light to inconceivable depending on the intensity, size and duration of the storm. Typically, tornadoes cause the greatest damage to structures of light construction such as residential homes (particularly 45 NOAA/NCDC database Page 6-59

60 mobile homes). The Enhanced Fujita Scale for Tornadoes was developed to measure tornado strength (i.e., magnitude or intensity) and associated types of damages (Table ). Table Enhanced Fujita Scale for Tornadoes EF-Scale Number Intensity Phrase 3 Second Gust (MPH) F0 Gale F1 Moderate F2 Significant F3 Severe F4 Devastating F5 Incredible Over 200 Type of Damage Done Some damage to chimneys; breaks branches off trees; pushes over shallow-rooted trees; damages to sign boards. The lower limit is the beginning of hurricane wind speed; peels surface off roofs; mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned; moving autos pushed off the roads; attached garages may be destroyed. Considerable damage. Roofs torn off frame houses; mobile homes demolished; boxcars pushed over; large trees snapped or uprooted; light object missiles generated. Roof and some walls torn off well-constructed houses; trains overturned; most trees in forest uprooted. Well-constructed houses leveled; structures with weak foundations blown off some distance; cars thrown and large missiles generated. Strong frame houses lifted off foundations and carried considerable distances to disintegrate; automobile sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 meters; trees debarked; steel re-enforced concrete structures badly damaged. Hazard Identification The US Wind Zone Map (Figure ) shows the areas affected by extreme windstorms. Developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers, it is based on the history of 40 years of tornadoes and 100 years of hurricanes. Page 6-60

61 Figure US Wind Zone Map (Source: USACE, 7-95 and FEMA 386-2, p.2-20) According to this figure, all of New Jersey is within Zone II. The Design Wind Speed for this zone is indicated as 160 miles per hour (mph). Per Table , wind speeds of 160 mph are associated with severe conditions. Historical Occurrences According to NOAA National Climatic Data Center, there have been a total of 6 recorded tornado events in the County between the years of 1950 and June As listed in Table , 0 deaths, 14 injuries, and $1.025 million in property damages resulted from these events. The magnitude of these tornadoes ranges from F1 to F3 in intensity. The most severe tornadoes in the county occurred on the afternoon of May 28, 1973 when two F3 tornadoes caused approximately $500,000 in damages and injured 12 people. 46 Table Historical Tornado Impacts (Source: NOAA/NCDC) Location Date & Time Magnitude Deaths/ Injuries Property Damage Morris 4/29/1951 F1 0 / 2 $25,000 Morris 7/19/1971 F1 0 / 0 $250,000 Morris 5/28/ F3 0 / 0 $250,000 Morris 5/28/ F3 0 / 12 $250,000 Morris 7/20/ F2 0 / 0 $0 Morris 6/24/ F1 0 / 0 $250, NOAA/NCDC database Page 6-61

62 New Jersey currently ranks number 37 nationally for frequency of tornadoes. Tornadoes have an impact on Morris County equally and uniformly. The severity of the tornadoes identified in the NCDC database for Morris County ranged from F1 to F3. Impact on Life and Property The NCDC database reports there have been no deaths and 14 injuries from tornadoes in Morris County. Tornadoes have caused slightly more than $1 million in property damage. The most severe tornadoes in the county occurred on the afternoon of May 28, 1973 when two F3 tornadoes caused approximately $500,000 in damages and injured 12 people. 47 Location, Magnitude and Probability A recent study from NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory provided highly accurate and accessible estimates of the long-term threat from tornadoes. Using historical data, the NSSL estimated the daily probability of a tornado occurring near any location in the U.S for any tornado no matter how strong or weak (i.e., no matter what its magnitude). The NSSL map below (Figure ) can be used to obtain these estimates. For example, the NSSL estimates a probability for any tornado of about 1.3 days per year in south-central Oklahoma, and 0.4 to 0.6 days per year in southern New York. Figure Probability of a Tornado of any Magnitude (Source: 47 NOAA/NCDC database Page 6-62

63 Based on this NOAA NSSL map, the tornado probability for Morris County is about 0.4 to 0.6 tornado days per year for any tornado Ice Storm Description of the Ice Storm Hazard Although snow is the weather phenomenon most commonly associated with winter, ice storms can cause significant disruption to business and create treacherous driving conditions (See Section , Severe Storm Winter Weather, for a detailed discussion of winter weather). The freezing rain that coats all objects in a sheath of ice can cause power outages, structural damage, damaging tree falls. Freezing rain measured on a large scale is considered an ice storm. Ice storms occur when rain droplets fall through freezing air and but do not freeze until they touch objects such as trees, roads, or structures. A clear icy sheath, known as a glaze, forms around branches, structures and wires and has been known to bring down high-tension utility, radio, and television transmission towers. See Appendix D for a more detailed description of the ice storm hazard. Location of the Ice Storm Hazard All regions of Morris County have been subject to ice storms. Besides temperature, their occurrence depends on the regional distribution of the pressure systems, as well as local weather conditions. The distribution of ice storms often coincides with general distribution of snow. In Morris County, as a coastal storm moves northeastward offshore, a cold rain may be falling in the far eastern part of the county, changing to freezing rain in the central region, and snow over the extreme western portion. A locality s distance to the passing storm center is often the crucial factor in determining the temperature and type of precipitation during a winter storm. The potential for ice storms is uniform for the entire planning area. All people and assets are considered to have the same degree of exposure. Severity of the Ice Storm Hazard The severity of the ice storm hazard is dependent on a variety of factors including the surface temperature, duration of the event, and thickness of the ice. Impact on Life and Property The NCDC database indicates there have been no deaths, injuries or property damage from previous ice storms in Morris County. Although the summary results from the NCDC database indicate no damages or injuries the detailed descriptions provided for both events indicates there were at least some minor injuries from numerous traffic accidents and potential damages from downed trees and power lines (See Table ). Page 6-63

64 Occurrences of the Ice Storm Hazard The NCDC database indicates there have been two ice storms events that have impacted Morris County between 1950 and June, In addition to the two ice storms, the database indicates there have been 12 freezing rain events, eight snow/ice storm events and 32 wintry mix events. These freezing rain, snow/ice, and wintry mix event types can include a combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. The two ice storm events occurred in November, 1997 and January, Table summarizes the two ice storm events from the NCDC database. Table Morris County Ice Storm Events (Source: NOAA/NCDC) Location Date Event Type Description Northwest Morris County 11/14/1997 Ice Storm Countywide 1/15/1998 Ice Storm A coastal low and the presence of cold air supplied by a high pressure system in Canada kept temperatures near the ground at or below the freezing mark and caused precipitation to fall as mainly freezing rain in Sussex County, in northern areas of Warren County and northwest sections of Morris County. The ice brought down tree limbs and power lines and caused power outages to 2,000 customers across Northwest New Jersey. A downed tree in Randolph Township caused the greatest concentration of outages in one area. In Morris County, numerous accidents were reported along Interstate 287. A jackknifed tractor trailer shut down the eastbound lanes of Interstate 80 for more than an hour. In Hanover Township, 17 accidents were reported within 30 minutes as road surfaces became covered with ice. In Dover, 25 accidents occurred within an hour. Sections of New Jersey State Route 24 and US Route 202 were also closed. Page 6-64

65 Morris County experiences an event that includes freezing rain, sleet or ice as part of a winter storm about four times a year, based on the two ice storms, 12 freezing rain events, 32 wintry mix events, and eight snow/ice storm events between 1994 and June, The county experiences an event categorized exclusively as an ice storm about once every seven years. Based on previous data, the probability of ice storms occurring in the future is relatively high. However the overall impact to life and property throughout the planning is considered low to moderate Landslide (non-seismic) Description of the Landslide Hazard A landslide is a natural geologic process involving the movement of earth materials down a slope, including rock, earth, debris, or a combination of these, under the influence of gravity. However, there are a variety of triggers for landslides such as: a heavy rainfall event, earthquakes, or human activity. The rate of landslide movement ranges from rapid to very slow. A landslide can involve large or small volumes of material. Material can move in nearly intact blocks or be greatly deformed and rearranged. The slope may be nearly vertical or fairly gentle. 48 See Appendix D for a more detailed description and definition of the Landslide hazard. Location of the Landslide Hazard Landslides are usually associated with mountainous areas but can also occur in areas of generally low relief. In lowrelief areas, landslides occur due to steepening of slopes: as cut and fill failures (roadway and building excavations), river bluff failures, collapse of mine waste piles, and a wide variety of slope failures associated with quarries and openpit mines. 49 The NJGS has developed several landslide susceptibility maps for Morris County and the State of New Jersey. In Morris County the area most susceptible to landslides is concentrated near the eastern and southeastern portion of the county. As shown in Figure the majority of the eastern portion of the county is shaded orange, indicating that the landslide susceptibility is considered moderate in this area with low incidence. 48 Delano and Wilshusen, USGS, Landslide Types and Process, 2004 Page 6-65

66 Figure New Jersey Landslide Susceptibility/Incidence Map (Source: NJGS) In 2005, as part of the Earthquake Loss Estimation Study for Morris County, the NJGS produced a landslide susceptibility map using six landslide classes from the HAZUS model (HAZUS User Manual Table National Institute of Building Sciences). The six landslide classes are broken down into two general categories; Landslide Class A (strongly connected rock), and Landslide Class B (weakly connected rock). Figure identifies the landslide susceptibility areas in Morris County based on the color coded landslide classes. The map shows that landslide susceptible areas are concentrated in thin bands along the steep slopes of the mountainous areas of western Morris County. In this portion of the county, the majority of the landslide susceptibility areas are within the Landslide Classes A I and B III, shaded red and green respectively on the map. Class A I areas are considered to have strongly cemented rock, with a slope angle of either degrees (shaded red). Class B III areas are considered to have weakly cemented rock and soil, with slope angles of degrees (shaded green). The landslide classes are difficult to distinguish at this map scale and therefore followed by Figures and , which show a closer view of the landslide susceptibility in western Morris County. Page 6-66

67 Figure Morris County Landslide Susceptibility Map (Source: Earthquake Loss Estimation Study for Morris County, New Jersey: Geologic Component; NJGS, 2005) Page 6-67

68 Figure Southwestern Morris County Landslide Susceptibility Map (Source: Earthquake Loss Estimation Study for Morris County, New Jersey: Geologic Component; NJGS, 2005) Page 6-68

69 Figure Northwestern Morris County Landslide Susceptibility Map (Source: Earthquake Loss Estimation Study for Morris County, New Jersey: Geologic Component; NJGS, 2005) Severity of the Landslide Hazard Landslides are considered highly site-specific events and are concentrated in areas of steep slopes. The severity of the landslide hazard depends on a combination of slope angle and the geologic material underlying the slope. Impact on Life and Property According to the NJGS (as shown in the Figure ), the eastern portion of Morris County is moderately susceptible to landslides, and has experienced relatively few events in the past. There are no known instances of injuries or death from landside events in Morris County. Although portions of eastern Morris County are densely populated, with no previous deaths or injuries impacts on life and property in the planning area will most likely continue to be minimal. Future development must avoid areas where the hazard is present. Page 6-69

70 Occurrences of the Landslide Hazard The NJGS indicates there have been 160 landslides statewide in New Jersey since As shown in Figure , all of these events have occurred in the northern part of the state. In Morris County, 14 landslides have occurred since The events are categorized on the map as ten debris flows, three rockfalls, and one rockslide. Figure Landslides in Northern New Jersey (Source: NJGS) Landslide probabilities are largely a function of surface geology, but are also influenced by both weather and human activities, as noted above. Based on the data from the NJGS, on average Morris County has experienced a landslide event about every four years. There are presumably other small landslides that have occurred in the county that are not reported to the NGJS. The probability of future landslides having a significant impact on property and life in the planning area is relatively low Severe Storm Lightning Description of the Lightning Hazard Lightning events are generated by atmospheric imbalance and turbulence due to a combination of conditions. Lightning, which occurs during all thunderstorms, can strike anywhere. Generated by the buildup of charged ions in a thundercloud, the discharge of a lightning bolt interacts with the best conducting object or surface on the ground. The air in the channel of a lightning strike reaches temperatures higher than 50,000 degrees F. See Appendix D for a more detailed description of the lightning hazard. Page 6-70

71 Location of the Lightning Hazard Lightning occurs over the entire planning area, particularly during the spring and summer months. Severity of Lightning Hazard Severe lightning events can occur anywhere in the planning area. Even during common events, the lightning current can branch off to strike a person from a tree, fence, pole, or other tall object. In addition, electrical current may be conducted through the ground to a person after lightning strikes a nearby tree, antenna, or other tall object. The current also may travel through power lines, telephone lines, or plumbing pipes to a person who is in contact with an electric appliance, telephone, or plumbing fixture. Lightning may use similar processes to damage property or cause fires. Impact on Life and Property About 100 deaths and 500 injuries are reported annually across the United States from this hazard. According to the NCDC, in Morris County there were no deaths, three injuries, and $653,000 in property damages related to lightning from 1950 to June, The low injury and death rate from previous lightning events points to a relatively low vulnerability for lightning hazards in the planning area. Table identifies past lightning events in Morris County that have resulted in property damage. Table Lightning Events resulting in Property Damage, Morris County, (Source: NOAA/NCDC) Note: See bullets following Table for column heading definitions. Occurrences of the Lightning Hazard There were 31 instances of lightning reported in the NCDC database for Morris County from 1950 to June, All 31 events occurred between 1996 and The database provides no indication as to why there are no events prior to 1996, although presumably occurrences roughly follow the same pattern and frequency as shown in the NCDC list. Page 6-71

72 Clearly, there are many such events every year, but they are presumably not significant enough to reach the threshold for reporting to NOAA/NCDC for inclusion in the database. As noted, like most of the United States, Morris County is subject to numerous thunderstorm-related lightning events annually, so the probability of lightning occurring is extremely high. However, the likelihood of events significant enough to cause severe damage is low Severe Storm Winter Weather Description of the Winter Weather Hazard Winter storms bring various forms of precipitation that occur only at cold temperatures. These kinds of precipitation include snow, sleet, or a rainstorm where ground temperatures are cold enough to allow icy conditions. These cold weather storms can also take the form of freezing rain or a wintry mix. See Section , Ice Storm, for a detailed discussion of the ice storm hazard. Heavy snowfall and extreme cold can immobilize an entire region. Even areas that normally experience mild winters can be hit with a major snowstorm or extreme cold. Winter storms can result in flooding and closed highways, blocked roads, downed power lines and hypothermia. See Appendix D for a more detailed description of the severe storm winter weather hazard. Figure Heavy Snow from the 1993 Storm of the Century (Source: Popular Mechanics Science) Page 6-72

73 Location of the Winter Storm Hazard The potential for winter storms is uniform for the entire planning area. All people and assets are considered to have the same degree of exposure. Seasonal snowfall in New Jersey varies from an average of about 15 inches at Atlantic City to about 50" in Sussex County. There is, however, significant variation from year to year. February is the month when maximum accumulations on the ground are usually reached. Figure shows that in Morris County the average yearly snowfall ranges between 35" and 40". Average Yearly Snowfall PATERSON Figure Average Annual Snowfall in New Jersey (Source: New Jersey Office of Emergency Management) In Inches TRENTON 25 NEW BRUNSWICK NEWARK LONG BRANCH CAMDEN 20 SUSSEX PASSAIC VINELAND 15 ATLANTIC CITY BERGEN WARREN MORRIS ESSEX HUDSON UNION SOMERSET HUNTERDON MIDDLESEX MERCER MONMOUTH OCEAN BURLINGTON CAMDEN GLOUCESTER SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND CAPE MAY Source: Hazards Analysis NJ,NJ Office of Emergency Management, 1984 CAPE MAY Severity of Winter Storm Hazard Although the NCDC database has not categorized any previous storms in Morris County as blizzards, this is perhaps the most severe type of winter storm, characterized by low temperatures, strong winds, and heavy blowing snow. The NCDC database query results include winter storm events between 1994 and June, In mid-march 1993, the eastern United States experienced one of the most intense winter storms on record. The event, known as the storm of the century caused blizzard conditions throughout most of New Jersey dumping as much three feet of snow in some parts of the state. Impact on Life and Property The NCDC reports there have been one death, 33 injuries and slightly more than $19 million in property damage due to winter weather events in Morris County. Tables and identify the Morris County winter weather events from the NCDC database resulting in property damage followed by events resulting in deaths and injuries. Page 6-73

74 Section 7 of this Plan (Risk Assessment) includes a more detailed discussion of the severe storm winter weather hazard. Table Winter Weather Events resulting in Property Damage, Morris County, (Source: NOAA/NCDC) Note: See bullets following Table for column heading definitions. Table Death and Injury-Related Winter Storm Events, Morris County, (Source: NOAA/NCDC) Note: Coded letters and numbers under Location or County column is a result of output from the NCDC query. See bullets following Table for column heading definitions. Occurrences of the Winter Weather Hazard Winter storms occur frequently enough in Morris County to be a threat to people and property. Generally, the winter storm season in Morris County runs from December to March. The NCDC reports that in Morris County there have been 142 snow and ice events between 1950 and June, Although the query results begin in 1950 the first reported event is in It is unclear why the database does not include any events prior to Table summarizes some of the major winter storm events that have impacted Morris County in the past. Based on past history, the probability of winter weather events occurring in the future is relatively high, based on previous data. On average, two to three winter storms occur every year in Morris County. Page 6-74

75 February 7, 1978 March 13, 1993 (EM 3106) January 7, 1996 (DR 1088) Table Summary of Notable Winter Storm Events impacting Morris County (Source: NOAA NWS) Event Date Storm Type Description February 16, 2003 (EM 3181) January 22, 2005 Blizzard Blizzard Blizzard Snow Storm Snow Storm This blizzard caused an estimated $24 million in damage Statewide, primarily to dunes, beaches, and public facilities along the beachfront. Event known as the Storm of the Century affected as many as 26 states from Florida to Maine, the Gulf Coast, and the Ohio Valley. One of the most intense nor easters to ever effect the United States. The Storm of the Century label was given to the event due to the record low pressure, wind speeds, temperature and snowfall. All 21 counties in New Jersey were included in the Presidentially Declared Disaster. In Morris County snowfall totals ranged from 13"-20". A State of Emergency was declared for the blizzard that hit the State. Road conditions were dangerous due to the high winds and drifts. Both government and contract snow plowing operations were running at a maximum. Local roads were impassable. This blizzard also brought on coastal flooding with the high tides of Sunday evening and Monday morning, and there were reports of damage to dunes and beaches from the heavy wave activity. More than 400 National Guard personnel were activated for transport assistance, primarily for medic missions. In Morris County snowfall totals ranged from 24"-28". The most powerful storm to affect New Jersey since the Blizzard of 1996 struck during the President's Day Weekend in February, The combination of the very cold temperatures and the approach of a strong storm system caused widespread snow to break out, starting before sunrise on Sunday, February 16. Snow continued during the day Sunday, heavy at times, and continued into Sunday night. Precipitation continued on Monday, before finally coming to an end on Tuesday. New Jersey requested and was granted a Snow Emergency Declaration for all 21 counties. The President's Day snowstorm tied or set records in all 21 New Jersey counties including Morris. Statewide, the event resulted in damages estimated at approximately $30.2 million. In Morris County, specific snow accumulations totaled 27" in Green Pond and 23.5" in Morristown. A very potent Alberta low pressure system dropped heavy snow across northern and southwestern New Jersey and a wintry mix across southeastern New Jersey. In Morris County snowfall totals ranged from 10"-15" inches. There was also one fatality in Morris County when a man in Hopatcong died while shoveling snow. Page 6-75

76 Wildfire Description of the Wildfire Hazard Wildfires are uncontrolled fires often occurring in wildland areas, and can consume houses or agricultural resources if not contained. Wildfires/urban interface is defined as the area where structures and other human development blend with undeveloped wildland. See Appendix D for a more detailed description and definition of the wildfire hazard. Location of the Wildfire Hazard The potential for wildfires exists over the entire planning area, although the probability is relatively low because of the predominately urban nature of the planning area, as well as the fire detection and suppression capabilities that exist in the county. Severity of the Wildfire Hazard The frequency and severity of wildfires depends on both weather and human activity. In the planning area, severity has historically been very low, and duration a matter of hours to a day. The risk is increased and compounded by increasing development within the zone commonly referred to as the urban-wildland interface. Within this zone of natural landscape, buildings become additional fuel for fires when fires do occur. Most wildland fires are man-caused and occur in the interface of developed lands and forest and range lands. In particular, the dry conditions, high temperatures, and low humidity that characterize drought periods set the stage for wildfires. Impact on Life and Property There are no records of deaths or injuries and no recorded loss of property from wildfires in the planning area. Occurrences of the Wildfire Hazard The NCDC database indicates there have been two wildfires in Morris County between 1950 and June, These two events are summarized below in Table Page 6-76

77 Table Wildfire Events, Morris County, (Source: NOAA/NCDC) See bullets following Table for column heading definitions. The first event listed in the NCDC database occurred on November 6, 1997 when fires started in seven separate locations near the Troy Meadows Preserve in Parsippany, New Jersey. The dry weather throughout 1997 helped the fire spread quickly. The fire eventually burned roughly 100 acres, and forced the evacuation of 354 students from the Troy Hills Elementary School and injured a fire fighter battling the blaze. The second event in the database occurred on August 8, 1998 in Morristown. The unseasonably warm and dry weather contributed to a three-quarter acre grass and forest fire near Jockey Hollow. The fire was quickly contained and there were no reports of injuries or property damage. 50 In addition to the NCDC, data from the New Jersey Forest Fire Service indicates there have been 79 wildfire incidents in Morris County between 1996 and Tables and provide the most recent available data for the number of fire incidents in New Jersey by year and the number of acres burned, for the period 1996 to As shown in the tables, Morris County ranks 8th in average annual fire incidents and 9th in the number of acres burned per year. The same data is depicted graphically in Figures and , following the tables. The past wildfire data indicates that the probability of future wildfires occurring in the county is considered moderate, but will most likely have a limited impact on property and life in the planning area. 50 NOAA/NCDC database Page 6-77

78 Table Number of Fire Incidents per Year by New Jersey County, (Source: New Jersey Forest Fire Service) County Totals Annual Average Atlantic , Bergen Burlington , Camden , Cape May Cumberland , Essex Gloucester Hudson Hunterdon Mercer Middlesex Monmouth Morris Ocean , Passaic Salem Somerset Sussex , Union Warren Total 910 1,681 1,653 2,055 1,237 1,912 1,762 1, ,229 1,632 16,017 1,456.1 Note: (1) The number of incidents includes only those wildfires to which the NJ Forest Fire Service responded to in its designated response area. Numbers are rounded for clarity. Page 6-78

79 Table State of New Jersey Annual Number of Acres Burned* by Wildfires County, (Source: New Jersey Forest Fire Service) County Totals Annual Average Atlantic 130 2, , Bergen Burlington , ,301 1,300 Camden Cape May Cumberland , Essex Gloucester Hudson Hunterdon Mercer Middlesex , Monmouth Morris Ocean 136 1, ,806 4, , Passaic Salem Somerset Sussex Union Warren , , Total 885 2,755 1,331 16,223 1,875 4,296 5, ,460 2,668 42,000 3,818 Figures and summarize by county the average annual wildfire incidents and acres burned in New Jersey between 1996 and The New Jersey Forest Fire Service indicates there has been an average of 79 wildfire incident per year in Morris County between 1996 and During this same time period, an average of 86 acres burned per year in the county. Page 6-79

80 Figure Average Annual Wildfire Incidents in New Jersey, (Source: New Jersey Forest Fire Service) Page 6-80

81 Figure Average Annual Acres Burned from Wildfires in New Jersey, (Source: New Jersey Forest Fire Service) Page 6-81

82 6.4 Identifying Hazards of Concern The table on the following pages lists the hazards, describes the rationale for identifying (or not identifying) hazards as significant, shows sources of information that were consulted for the determination. It also indicates the hazards identified by MCHMSC for a detailed risk assessment. Table Morris County Hazard Identification Flood Hazard High Wind Straight- Line winds (Includes: Hurricane, Nor easter, Tropical Storm, and Thunderstorms) Earthquake/Geological Dam and Levee Failure Hazardous Materials Release Fixed Sites Severe Storm Winter Weather High Wind Tornado Ice Storm Identified Natural Hazard? Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes No Rationale Widespread impacts, history of occurrences in the county, significant annual damages Hurricanes: Relatively low historic probability; potential for widespread impacts Tropical Storms: Low to moderate probability; potential for widespread impacts Nor easters: Moderate probability of more extreme events, potential for moderately widespread impacts Severe Storms: High probability of occurrences, but losses are typically limited Relatively low annual probability, but potential for significant consequences Low annual probability based on historical data, but impacts potentially significant in site specific areas High annual probability with impacts potentially severe in site specific areas High annual probability, widespread impacts, but losses generally limited except in most extreme events. High annual probability, widespread impacts, but losses generally limited except in most extreme events. Low to moderate annual probability with impacts relatively limited Sources FEMA Flood Insurance Studies; FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps; FEMA PA records; FEMA NFIP claims data; USACE; NOAA studies and records NOAA and NCDC records; NJDCA- Division of Codes and Standards; New Jersey State Climatologist (Rutgers) USGS; NJGS NJDEP-Dam Safety and Flood Control EPA; FEMA HAZUS; RTK Network NOAA; NCDC; NWS; New Jersey State Climatologist (Rutgers) NOAA NCDC; New Jersey State Climatologist (Rutgers); NWS NOAA NCDC; New Jersey State Climatologist (Rutgers); NWS Detailed Risk Assessment? Yes Yes Yes Yes for Dam Failure hazard. No for Levee Failure Yes Yes No No Page 6-82

83 Drought Hazard Hazardous Material Releases Transportation Wildfire Landslide (non-seismic) Extreme Temperature Cold Extreme Temperature Heat Severe Storm Lightning Hail Identified Natural Hazard? No No No No No No No No Rationale High annual probability, but impacts generally limited Moderate to high annual probability, but impacts limited in severity and area High annual probability of sitespecific events, but impacts generally limited Low probability with losses typically limited Relatively high annual probability, but impacts are limited Relatively high annual probability, but impacts are limited High annual probability, but impacts generally limited High annual probability but impacts are limited in severity and area Erosion Hurricane/Nor easter/ Tropical Storm No Relatively high annual probability, but impacts are limited to northeastern coastal areas. Note: See Appendix B (Section 6) for a complete listing of all sources. Sources NOAA NCDC; NJDEP The RTK Network ERNS NOAA, New Jersey State Forest Fire Service; NJDEP NJGS NOAA NCDC; New Jersey State Climatologist (Rutgers); NWS NOAA NCDC; New Jersey State Climatologist (Rutgers); NWS NOAA NCDC; New Jersey State Climatologist (Rutgers); NWS NOAA NCDC, New Jersey State Climatologist (Rutgers), NWS NOAA; NJBPN; USACE Detailed Risk Assessment? No No No No No No No No No Summary As indicated in above table, six natural hazards were identified as hazards of concern. As the regulations indicate, all these identified hazards must be profiled, their vulnerability assessed, and mitigation actions developed for them. Flood High Wind Straight-Line Winds Earthquake/Geological Flooding due to Dam Failure Severe Storm Winter Weather Tornado In addition, the MCHMSC recommended including five natural hazards and one technological/ manmade hazards in the more detailed risk assessments in Section 7: Flood, High Wind Straight-Line Winds, Earthquake/Geological, Flooding due to Dam Failure, Hazardous Materials Release Fixed Sites, and Severe Storm Winter Weather. Page 6-83

84 Note on Consistency with the New Jersey State Hazard Mitigation Plan As part of the process of developing the Morris County Hazard Mitigation plan, the planning team carefully reviewed the updated New Jersey State Hazard Mitigation Plan (SHMP), with the goal of ensuring consistency between the two documents, primarily in the areas of hazard identification, risk assessment and mitigation strategy. The SHMP comprises a shorter list of hazards (and does not include hazardous materials), but the most significant hazards statewide are part of both documents, and are generally prioritized in the same way. However, the state Plan process did not include a ranking methodology. The SHMP includes all 21 New Jersey counties in the state, and the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management specifically wished to avoid suggesting that some hazards were potentially less significant than others. This was done in order to avoid the potential for local municipalities to accept the state ranking verbatim, and potentially fail to fully explore localized hazards that may be the basis for significant risks. Summary Description of the County s Vulnerability to Hazards The DMA 2000 legislation and related FEMA planning guidance require mitigation plans to include discussion of community vulnerability to natural hazards. Vulnerability is generally defined as the damage (including direct damages and loss of function) that would occur when various levels of hazards impact a structure, operation or population. For example vulnerability can be expressed as the percent damage to a building when it is flooded, or the number of days that a government office will be shut down after a wind storm, etc., assuming there is sufficient detailed data available to support the calculations. Because this Plan includes many jurisdictions and the available data is not very detailed, it is not practical to complete vulnerability assessments on the many individual assets, operations and populations in individual jurisdictions. However, it is appropriate for participating municipalities to embark on a program of addressing these data deficiencies over the next five years in anticipation of the next Plan update. In addition, it is possible to make some general observations as follows based on the hazard identifications and risk assessments that are the subjects of Sections 6 and 7 of this plan. As illustrated in Section 6 (Hazard Identification), Morris County is subject to numerous natural and manmade hazards, although in some cases the hazards have rarely impacted the area, or their effects have been relatively minor. As is the case with many parts of the mid-atlantic, although relatively localized, flooding is the most frequent and most damaging natural hazard in northern New Jersey and Morris County. However, it is important to recognize that several other hazards present significant risks (i.e. potential for future losses) to the county, even though they have occurred infrequently in the past, or have not caused much damage. In particular, earthquakes (although improbable) present risks to various communities in the county due to the number of relatively old structures that may be prone to failure if shaken by an earthquake. As noted in Section 7, in order to accurately characterize vulnerabilities (and hence risks) at a local level, it will be necessary to study assets on a sitespecific basis. Section 7 of this plan also shows that there is some vulnerability to wind in the county, mainly from hurricanes and tropical storms. While severe hurricanes are rare events in this area of the country, tropical storms and nor easters are fairly common, and many structures in the communities are vulnerable to extreme winds. However, as discussed in text, the vulnerability is widespread, hence the relatively large risk figure. Most of the other hazards are either localized or improbable, and therefore, while various elements in the communities may be vulnerable to such hazards, the likelihood of them occurring in any specific location is very small. Page 6-84