General Obligation Limited Tax
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- Millicent Murphy
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1 New Issue: Moody's assigns Baa1 rating to the City of Mansfield's (OH) $2.3 million Various Purpose Refunding Bonds (General Obligation - Limited Tax), Series 2013; negative outlook removed Global Credit Research - 15 Jan 2013 MANSFIELD (CITY OF) OH Cities (including Towns, Villages and Townships) OH Moody's Rating ISSUE RATING Various Purpose Refunding Bonds, Series 2013 (General Obligation - Limited Tax) Baa1 Sale Amount $2,270,000 Expected Sale Date 01/23/13 Rating Description General Obligation Limited Tax Moody's Outlook NOO Opinion NEW YORK, January 15, Moody's Investors Service has assigned a Baa1 rating to the City of Mansfield's (OH) $2.3 million Various Purpose Refunding Bonds (General Obligation - Limited Tax), Series Concurrently, Moody's affirms the Baa1 rating on the city's outstanding general obligation limited tax debt and removes the negative outlook. SUMMARY RATINGS RATIONALE Debt service on the bonds is secured by the city's general obligation limited tax pledge, subject to the State of Ohio's (general obligation rated Aa1/stable) 10 mill limitation. Proceeds from the bonds will refund the city's Various Purpose Bonds, Series 2002 for estimated net present value savings. Assignment and affirmation of the Baa1 rating reflects the city's effective implementation of its fiscal recovery plan related to its fiscal emergency declaration by the state of Ohio; an improved financial position that is likely to still face revenue and expenditure pressures in the near term; a challenging broader economy as the moderately-sized and mature tax base continues to recover from the economic downturn; and manageable debt profile. STRENGTHS - Under fiscal emergency with recovery plan adopted - Consecutive General Fund operating surpluses that helped to build reserves - Improvement and some stabilization in economically sensitive income tax collections CHALLENGES - Ongoing fund deficit in the Safety Services Fund - Challenging broader economy across the city as it recovers from economic downturn - Narrow overall reserve levels DETAILED CREDIT DISCUSSION PLACED UNDER FISCAL EMERGENCY IN 2010; RECOVERY PLAN ADOPTED AND IMPLEMENTED BY CITY
2 On August 19th, 2010, the state of Ohio (Aa1/stable outlook) placed the City of Mansfield in fiscal emergency status under the Ohio Revised Code. There are six conditions that may qualify a municipality for fiscal emergency. One of those conditions is when the aggregate of deficit amounts of all funds exceeds one-sixth of the total of the general fund budget for that year and the receipts available to those deficit funds during that year, which was found to exist in Mansfield as of December 31, As part of the fiscal emergency status, Mansfield is required to work with the Fiscal Emergency Supervision Commission to put together a comprehensive recovery plan to bring the aggregate fund balances up to code. The recovery plan was initially adopted in February 2011 and updated in April Management reports that the plan is being implemented, which involved staffing reductions, fire fighter collective bargaining concessions, revisions to healthcare benefits, reduction of street lighting usage, the implementation of a license plate fee, as well as others cost reductions across the city's operations. MULTI-YEAR BUDGET SURPLUSES HAVE IMPROVED FINANCIAL POSITION; DEFICIT IN MAJOR GOVERNMENTAL FUND REMAINS The city's financial operations, while improved, are expected to remain pressured for the near to medium term given the ongoing deficit balance in city's Safety Services Fund and dependence on significant expenditure reductions and/or revenue enhancements for balanced operations going forward. The city accounts for the majority of its public safety expenditures, which make approximately two-thirds of total fiscal 2011 operating expenditures, in its Safety Services Fund. The Safety Services Fund is maintained outside the General Fund with a budget over twice as large as the General Fund and is primarily funded by income taxes, which comprised 89.8% of revenues for the Safety Services Fund and 63% of total operating revenues for the combined General and Safety Services Fund in The city experienced operating shortfalls in its General Fund between fiscal 2007 and fiscal 2009, with the Safety Services Fund posting operating shortfalls since fiscal Income tax receipts declined 3.3% in fiscal 2008, followed by an 8.5% decline in fiscal The city also experienced declines in the General Fund's largest revenue stream, intergovernmental sources, which account for 45% of General Fund revenues and 14% of total combined General and Safety Services Fund revenues in fiscal This revenue stream experienced an even steeper decline of 22.9% in 2009, though we note this calculation is somewhat skewed as the city received a large estate tax settlement in fiscal 2008, which artificially inflated 2008 receipts. In reaction to the revenue shortfalls, the city implemented a series of substantial expenditure reductions in 2009, including the elimination of 55 general staff positions, as well as nearly 40 police and fire positions. Despite these adjustments, the city ended fiscal 2009 with a combined $2.5 million accrual basis operating shortfall in the General Fund and Safety Services Fund, which led the Safety Services Fund to have a deficit fund position on both a cash and accrual basis. The General Fund extended a $1.8 million interfund loan to the Safety Services Fund to eliminate its cash basis deficit position, though the fund maintained a -$1.0 million deficit on an accrual basis. Collectively, the General Fund and Safety Services Fund ended fiscal 2009 with a -$1.0 million GAAP basis deficit fund balance, or -3.7% of revenues, and an unreserved balance of -$3.4 million, or -12% of revenues. The larger unreserved balance accounts for the interfund loans made by the General Fund. For fiscal 2010, the General Fund posted an operating surplus of approximately $848,000, while the Safety Services Fund posted another operating deficit of approximately $456,000. The deficit balance of the Safety Services Fund rose to $1.5 million; the two funds combined ended fiscal 2010 with a nearly -$671,000 GAAP basis deficit fund balance, or -3.1% of revenues. Income tax revenues demonstrated a measure of stabilization by increasing $172,000 or 0.7% over fiscal 2009 collections, with management projecting continued gains in fiscal 2011 due to an increase in net profits for local businesses. For fiscal 2011, the General Fund posted a sizable operating surplus of nearly $2.5 million, increasing General Fund reserves to $3.4 million. The Safety Services Fund posted a $1.0 million surplus, which reduced the deficit in the fund from $1.5 million to less than $500,000. The combined General and Safety Services fund reserves at the end of fiscal 2011 were $2.9 million or an adequate 9.7% of combined revenues. This reduction in the Safety Services Fund deficit has occurred on an accelerated timeline. This improved budgetary performance was aided by continued savings from previously instituted expenditure reductions, coupled with growth in income tax collections. The city collects a 1.75% income tax, of which 1% is permanent and for general use, 0.5% is voted (expiring on 12/31/2015) for Safety Services and 0.25% is voted (expiring on 6/30/2013) for Street Improvements. Most recently, income tax collections in 2011 increased by 3% over 2010, establishing a modest trend of improvement. Management does estimate 2012 collections to be slightly down from 2011 however. For fiscal 2012, the city estimates closing the year with cash basis reserves of $3.5 million in the General Fund and a deficit of $400,000 in the Safety Services Fund. For fiscal 2013, the city had to institute additional 8-10% cuts in the General Fund to compensate for a $1 million increase in the contract for jail services with Richland County (A2/negative outlook). The state oversight board approved a onetime use of reserves of approximately $400,000 to help balance
3 outlook). The state oversight board approved a onetime use of reserves of approximately $400,000 to help balance operations. Additionally, the city is currently considering a one-time transfer of General Fund reserves in the current fiscal year to permanently eliminate the Safety Services Fund deficit. During the November 2011 election, three of the city's highest level positions were replaced, which included the mayor, finance director, and law director. This management team has continued to work with the state oversight board to implement the adopted recovery plan and has looked for ways to stabilize financial operations as pressures arise. Certain factors that weigh on the city's medium term financial health include uncertainty of state revenues, soon to expire union contracts, as well as exposure to the levy cycle. While the effective transition to the new management team and implementation of the recovery plan have improved the city's financial position and reduced the likelihood of negative pressure on the city's rating, management's ability to navigate these upcoming challenges while maintaining balanced operations and eliminating its deficit fund balances will remain the focus of future credit reviews. MODESTLY SIZED TAX BASE WITH BELOW AVERAGE SOCIOECONIMIC INDICES The city is located in Richland County and is the largest city in the county, serving as the county seat. The primarily manufacturing based local economy has been particularly challenged through the broader economic downturn. The city's modestly-sized $1.6 billion tax base has seen assessed value declines for five consecutive years, with an average annual decline of -3.6% over the last five years. Most of the decline can be attributed to the state of Ohio's phasing out of tangible personal property tax, which was completely phased out as of 2009, as well as limited new construction. In 2006, tangible personal property had an assessed value of $110.4 million, which equaled a substantial 14.9% of the city's assessed value. Assessment of that property has now been fully phased out and while the state's distribution of a commercial activity tax replaced the city's lost revenues, holding it harmless, that transfer will begin to be phased out by the state during its 2012 fiscal year. Over the same time period, real property has declined, falling from a 2006 assessed valuation of $612.4 million to a 2012 assessed valuation of $555.2 million. Management reports operations at the city's largest employers, including Med-Central Hospital (2,500 employees; 12.8% of total city employment) and Richland County (1,474 employees; 7.6% of total city employment), have begun to stabilize and slowly add jobs in recent years. Additionally, a General Motors (corporate family rating Ba1/positive outlook) stamping plant in nearby Ontario (A1) closed in early The plant had employed 2,800 people in That plant has recently been sold to redevelopers and it is expected that as many as 1,100 jobs will be located there by the summer of Unemployment numbers for the city have historically been higher than state and national medians, however recent unemployment levels have improved. As of October 2012, the city's unemployment rate of 7.0% represents a significant decline from 11.0% compared to one year ago. The city's unemployment rate has fallen from its peak of 12.4% in 2009, due in part to AK Steel reopening its plant following a 2009 shutdown, which resulted in 261 employees returning to work. Despite this recent recovery, we expect the city's local economy will continue to be challenged over the near term due to the ongoing struggles facing the large manufacturing sector in the region. MANAGEABLE DEBT PROFILE WITH NO ADDITIONAL BORROWING PLANS The city's debt profile is expected to remain manageable over the near to medium term given its modest direct obligations, average amortization of principal payments with no plans to borrow for capital purposes for the next five years. The city's overall debt burden is manageable at 1.6%, with direct obligations at a more modest at 0.4%. Principal amortization is average with 70.6% repaid in ten years. All of the city's debt is fixed rate and officials have no plans to issue additional debt over the near term. What could change the rating - UP: - Successful economic development efforts resulting in stabilization of employment base and improvement of other economic indicators - Improved financial operations leading to satisfactory liquidity levels and positive operating fund balances across all funds What could change the rating - DOWN: - Declining overall liquidity resulting in an inability to meet cash flow needs - Material declines in operating fund balances resulting in continued deficit fund positions
4 KEY STATISTICS 2010 Population: 47,821 (3.1% decline since 2000) 2012 full valuation: $1.6 billion (3.6% average annual decline since 2007) 2012 full value per capita: $34, Median Family Income (American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates): $47,295 (72% of OH, 68% of US) Per Capita Income (American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates): $17,377 (69% of OH, 64% of US) October 2012 Unemployment Rate: 7.0% (OH: 6.3%; US: 7.5%) Fiscal 2011 General Fund balance: $3.4 million (34.7% of revenues) Fiscal 2011 Combined General and Safety Service Fund balance: $2.9 million (9.7% of combined revenues) Debt burden: 1.6% (0.5% direct) General Obligation Limited Tax Debt outstanding: $5.8 million PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY USED The principal methodology used in this rating was General Obligation Bonds Issued by U.S. Local Governments published in October Please see the Credit Policy page on for a copy of this methodology. REGULATORY DISCLOSURES For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on Please see for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating. Analysts Chandra Ghosal Lead Analyst Public Finance Group Moody's Investors Service Genevieve Nolan Backup Analyst Public Finance Group Moody's Investors Service Contacts Journalists: (212) Research Clients: (212)
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