A Lee County Economic Impact Study Prepared for

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1 A Lee County Economic Impact Study Prepared for PRIVATE EQUITY GROUP, LLC Dr. Gary Jackson Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Lutgert College of Business Florida Gulf Coast University January 3, 2014

2 Executive Summary This study provides a forecast of the economic impacts on Lee County of a new land development project, CenterPlace, near Alico Road, Gulf Coast Town Center, and Florida Gulf Coast University. It is a mixed use project that will include residential, commercial, and research and development areas. The property is currently in the University Community Future Land Use Category. The overall economic impacts are estimated to be: Employment increases to a peak of 1,207 by 2021 with an average annual increase of 771 jobs per year during the development period of 2016 through Value added (overall income) increases to a peak of $75.3 million in 2021 with an average annual value added of $48.4 million per year for the period of 2016 to Labor income increases to a peak of $56.7 million in 2021 with an average annual increase of $36.3 million for the period of 2016 to Expenditures increase to a peak of $172.7 million in 2021 with average annual increases of $110.1 million for the period of 2016 to Property tax collections are projected to grow from $1.5 million in 2017 to over $12 million per year by Sales tax collections increase gradually by $1.8 million in 2021 before declining to $528,922 in P a g e

3 Project Overview The planning documents provide a description of the proposed Compact Community Planned Development (CCPD) CenterPlace: The proposed CCPD will create a mixed use residential, office/research development park, and retail commercial project adjacent to Florida Gulf Coast University (FGCU), Miromar Lakes, and the Tradeport Future Land Use Category. The proposed development is intended to establish an economically viable mixed-use, live-work development with retail, office, research and development, residential, civic and recreational uses. 1 The economic impact analysis takes a conservative approach since it is based on planned construction expenditures and not on the projected overall sale or market values of the residential, commercial, and institutional buildings and facilities being developed. The projected construction expenditures over the life of the development project are expected to be almost $1.0 billion. Table 1 provides a breakdown of expenditures by activity and time period. A proposed site development map is shown in Figure 1. Table 1 Planned Construction Expenditures Activity Expenditure Years Master Approvals $ 2.1 million 2013 to 2016 Construction Soft Costs $13.7 million 2015 to 2028 Master Site Development $41.5 million 2015 to to 2023 Residential Construction $455.0 million 2016 to 2025 Commercial Construction $240.0 million 2018 to 2028 Research Park/Institutional $225.0 million 2019 to 2028 Total $997.2 million 2013 to CenterPlace Compact Community Planned Development Overview, provided by Private Equity Group, LLC, December 26, P a g e

4 Figure 1 Map of Proposed Development Economic Impacts The overall economic impacts on Lee County include an increase in: Employment from 10 in 2013 to 1,207 by 2021 before declining to 354 in 2028; Value added (overall income) from $654 thousand in 2013 to $75.3 million in 2021 before declining to $21.7 million in 2028; Labor income of $517 thousand in 2013 increasing to $56.7 million in 2021 before declining to $16.2 million in 2028; and Expenditures from $1.2 million in 2013 to $172.7 million in 2021 before declining to $50.4 million in Local and state sales and property tax collections are projected to increase by approximately $12.5 million per year by P a g e

5 Study Results The economic impact model, IMPLAN, provides four measures of economic impact for Lee County. Employment represents the additional employment created in Lee County as a result of the new development. Value added represents the additional labor income, proprietary income, other property income, and indirect business taxes created within Lee County. Labor income represents the wage, salary, and benefits paid to workers in Lee County. Expenditures is a measure of additional expenditures resulting from the construction of the new development. The model accounts for the direct construction and the indirect impacts created by other firms which are suppliers of services and products to the development (indirect) and the economic impact of expenditures created by increased household incomes (induced) for housing, food, and other goods and services. Development Project's Economic Impacts on Lee County The employment impacts of the new development are shown in Figure 2. Appendix A provides tables with the forecast economic impacts that correspond to the figures shown here. The blue bars in Figure 2 represent the direct employment by the developer and the red bars represent the additional employment created in Lee County due to additional business-to-business expenditures and the increase in household income and expenditures. Master approvals began in 2013 and are expected to be completed in Master site development is expected to begin in 2015 and end by Residential construction is expected to begin in 2016 and end in Commercial construction is planned to start in 2018 and end in Construction work on the institutional/research park is planned to begin in 2019 and also end in Overall additional Lee County employment as a result of the new development would be 10 in 2014 increasing to 640 in Employment continues rising to 1,207 by 2021 before declining to 354 employees by Once the project is complete, the construction impacts on the economy would end, but the operation and maintenance of the development would continue, creating additional employment. 5 P a g e

6 Figure 2 Chart of the Projected Employment Changes (Number of Employees) The value added to Lee County from the development is shown in Figure 3. Value added is considered to be one of the most important measures of the overall economic impact on the county since it primarily represents the additional income created within the county and includes wages and salaries, profit, dividends, rent, and interest generated as a result of the development project. The overall value added grows from $653,287 dollars in 2014 to $75.3 million in 2021 and gradually declines over the remaining life of the development project ending with $21.7 million in The blue bars represent the direct value added created by the development project and the red bars represent the additional value added created within Lee County by the additional business-to-business activity and increase in household income and expenditures. The value added impact from the construction would end with the construction expenditures in Once the project is complete, the construction impacts on the economy would end, but the operation and maintenance of the development would continue, creating additional value added for Lee County. 6 P a g e

7 Figure 3 Chart of the Projected Value Added Changes (Dollars) Additional labor income generated as result of the development project is shown in Figure 4. The labor income represents the wages, salaries and benefits paid to workers in Lee County and is one part of the value added measure described earlier in the paper. Overall labor income rises from an estimated $516,780 dollars in 2014 to $56.7 million in 2021 before declining to $16.2 million in Figure 4 Chart of the Projected Labor Income Changes (Dollars) 7 P a g e

8 Expenditures resulting from the development project are shown in Figure 5 and represent a substantial construction investment in the county over the 13 years. The initial Lee County direct expenditures for master approvals started at $640,000 in 2013 and rises to $111.3 million in 2021 before gradually declining to $33.1 million in These expenditures are shown by the blue bars in Figure 5. The overall expenditures started at $1.2 million in 2014 and rise to $172.7 million in 2021 before declining to $50.4 million in 2028, the last year of the planned construction. Figure 5 Chart of the Projected Expenditure Changes (Dollars) Sales and property tax increases resulting from the development project are shown in Figure 6. These are conservative estimates since they are based on construction expenditures. Additional property tax collections are estimated to be over $12 million in 2028, the projected completion year for the CenterPlace development project. Additional state and local sales tax increases are estimated at $930,000 in 2016 increasing to $1.8 million in 2021 before declining to $528,922 in 2028 with the completion of the project. 8 P a g e

9 Figure 6 Chart of the Projected Sales and Property Tax Changes (Dollars) Summary The overall development plan for CenterPlace contains a mix of residential, commercial, retail, office, and research and development areas. The economic impact analysis takes a conservative approach since it is based on planned construction expenditures and not on the projected overall sale or market values of the residential, commercial, and institutional buildings and facilities being developed. By any measure, this is a large investment in the overall community and would be expected to create additional employment, income and expenditures. The additional employment varies with the project's timing, but the overall employment associated with the project averages approximately 771 for the period of 2016 to The value added to the county primarily represents the additional income created within the county. The study shows value added rising to $43.6 million by 2016 and $75.3 million by 2021 before declining to $21.7 million in the last year of the project, Labor income rises to $31.8 million in 2016 and $56.7 million in 2021 before declining to $16.2 million in Expenditures are $92.0 million in 2016, rising to $172.7 million in 2021 before declining to $50.4 million in State and local sales taxes gradually increase to $1.8 million per year in 2021 before declining to $528,922 in Additional property taxes are estimated to be $6.1 million by 2021 and increase to over $12 million per year by The additional tax 9 P a g e

10 collection estimates provide part of the information necessary to complete a cost-benefit analysis. The additional residents, firms, and employees will require services from the county which would be expected to increase county costs. 10 P a g e

11 Appendix A Projected Economic Impacts of Alico West Development Table A-1 Projected Lee County Employment Change As a Result of the Development Project Year Direct Employment Indirect & Induced Employment Total Employment , , , P a g e

12 Table A-2 Projected Lee County Value Added Change as a Result of the Development Project Year Direct Value Added Indirect & Induced Value added Total Value Added 2013 $346,353 $306,934 $653, $346,353 $306,934 $653, $2,357,471 $1,195,715 $3,553, $23,195,566 $20,379,400 $43,574, $20,514,075 $19,194,358 $39,708, $21,154,152 $20,841,104 $41,995, $29,107,738 $28,447,688 $57,555, $34,677,856 $32,080,851 $66,758, $39,238,433 $36,103,671 $75,342, $34,979,524 $32,214,168 $67,193, $31,196,740 $27,619,282 $58,816, $27,509,690 $25,989,850 $53,499, $27,293,219 $25,798,016 $53,091, $15,163,526 $12,934,881 $28,098, $11,712,076 $9,987,993 $21,700, $11,712,076 $9,987,993 $21,700, P a g e

13 Table A-3 Projected Lee County Labor Income Change as a Result of the Development Project Year Direct Labor Income Indirect & Induced Labor Income Total Labor Income 2013 $341,416 $175,364 $516, $341,416 $175,364 $516, $1,516,602 $706,344 $2,222, $19,830,972 $11,936,704 $31,767, $18,264,057 $11,228,732 $29,492, $19,618,926 $12,203,233 $31,822, $27,209,094 $16,719,675 $43,928, $31,271,025 $18,890,915 $50,161, $35,372,485 $21,282,288 $56,654, $31,447,303 $18,970,562 $50,417, $27,458,093 $16,290,995 $43,749, $25,303,585 $15,317,532 $40,621, $25,090,200 $15,207,929 $40,298, $13,361,416 $7,680,735 $21,042, $10,311,601 $5,932,499 $16,244, $10,311,601 $5,932,499 $16,244, P a g e

14 Table A-4 Projected Lee County Expenditure Change as a Result of the Development Project Year Direct Expenditures Indirect & Induced Expenditures Total Expenditures 2013 $640,000 $516,079 $1,156, $640,000 $516,079 $1,156, $3,430,000 $2,004,266 $5,434, $58,178,160 $33,856,515 $92,034, $54,458,160 $31,872,266 $86,330, $60,137,488 $34,813,128 $94,950, $85,545,462 $48,100,270 $133,645, $97,864,784 $54,364,528 $152,229, $111,338,766 $61,375,138 $172,713, $98,283,284 $54,587,756 $152,871, $85,355,336 $46,975,732 $132,331, $80,240,336 $44,247,389 $124,487, $79,840,336 $43,924,840 $123,765, $42,696,963 $22,485,544 $65,182, $33,057,635 $17,366,902 $50,424, $33,057,635 $17,366,902 $50,424, P a g e

15 Table A-5 Projected State and Local Sales and Property Tax Increases as a Result of the Development Project Year Sales Tax Property Tax 2013 $10,240 $ $10,240 $ $54,880 $ $930,851 $ $871,331 $1,525, $962,200 $2,307, $1,368,727 $3,419, $1,565,837 $4,691, $1,781,420 $6,139, $1,572,533 $7,416, $1,365,685 $8,526, $1,283,845 $9,569, $1,277,445 $10,607, $683,151 $11,162, $528,922 $11,592, $528,922 $12,021, P a g e

16 Appendix B IMPLAN Pro: An Economic Impact Analysis Model This study was completed using an established and accepted economic impact model, IMPLAN, that is currently in use by over a thousand licensed model users in the United States, including universities, government agencies, and private companies. The model is based on an understanding of inter-industry relationships and the work of Wassily Leontief. He developed the concept of multipliers from input-output tables and received the Nobel Prize in 1973 for his work. 2 The model was originally developed for the United States Department of Agriculture and in the late 1980s was refined and enhanced with the assistance of the University of Minnesota. The model includes a mathematical input-output (I-O) data set for Lee County that allows one to forecast the economic impacts of new construction expenditures and added employment on other Lee County businesses. The new construction project and employees will need various products and services leading to additional expenditures, jobs, and labor income. The includes employee compensation, proprietary income, other property type income, and indirect business taxes. Indirect business taxes consist of excise taxes, property taxes, fees, licenses, and sales taxes paid by businesses. The additional demand for goods and services in Lee County as a result of the new development will lead to additional business-to-business activity and the additional household incomes will increase business activity for household goods and services. 2 "User's, Analysis, and Date Guide," IMPLAN Professional 2.0, Stillwater Minnesota, 16 P a g e

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