VISION ZERO: COMBATING PEDESTRIAN CASUALTIES DUE TO TRAFFIC IN NEW YORK CITY

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1 VISION ZERO: COMBATING PEDESTRIAN CASUALTIES DUE TO TRAFFIC IN NEW YORK CITY by Eric M. Richardson University of Denver Institute for Public Policy Studies Spring 2015 Capstone Policy Memorandum for the Degree of Master of Public Policy (MPP) Faculty Advisor: Dr. Lapo Salucci Cost-Benefit Analysis Advisor: Dr. Andy Sharma

2 Table of Contents Executive Summary Introduction Problem Definition Methods Issue Analysis... 9 A. History and Politics of Vision Zero... 9 B. Stakeholders C. Diagnosing the Causes of Pedestrian Casualties D. Current and Future Trends Associated with Pedestrian Casualties Alternatives A. Alternative One: The Status Quo B. Alternative Two: Speed Bumps and Lighting C. Alternative Three: Speed Limit Reduction to 20 mph D. Alternative Four: Dutch- Style Intersection Redesign Cost- Benefit Analysis A. Explanation of Cost- Benefit Analysis: B. Sensitivity Analyses: Strategic Recommendations Weaknesses and Limitations Conclusion Appendix Appendix A: CBA Statistical Inputs Appendix B: Individual Cost- Benefit Analysis (Years 0-5) Appendix C: Sensitivity Analyses Bibliography

3 Executive Summary In 2012, there were 135 pedestrian fatalities, over 1,400 serious injuries, and 10,303 total pedestrian injuries due to traffic on New York City (NYC) streets. Data from 2013 shows a notable increase in those killed or seriously injured (KSI). Clearly, there are too many pedestrian casualties due to traffic in NYC. Pedestrian casualties due to traffic devastate families, hurt businesses and employers, and cost NYC's economy $1.38 billion every year. NYC has begun to address pedestrian casualties with the Vision Zero plan, which has helped reduce traffic and pedestrian fatalities in Sweden. The Vision Zero plan institutes street infrastructure changes, more effective enforcement techniques, public education campaigns, and a lower speed limit, all in an effort to prevent traffic and pedestrian casualties. This model is being copied in other large cities, including London and Paris. Bill de Blasio, the new mayor of NYC, campaigned on Vision Zero and has been aggressive in his implementation of pedestrian safety policies. NYC is now an important national test case for Vision Zero. A new 25 mph speed limit was recently enacted, along with a number of initiatives that have been proven to prevent pedestrian casualties, including intersection and street redesign, greater police enforcement, and infrastructure enhancements. This policy memorandum reviews a number of alternatives to help prevent pedestrian casualties, including: 1) The status quo (enforcement of existing policies); 2) Speed bumps near schools and enhanced street lighting; 3) A 20 mph speed limit; and 4) Intersection redesign. Except for the 20 mph speed limit, these policies are currently being implemented as part of Vision Zero. The goal of this policy memorandum is to look at the effectiveness of each policy measured in lives saved. Cost is also a factor, and through a cost-benefit analysis, this policy memorandum makes an effort to identify the most effective policy enhancements a budget-limited municipality can introduce to help curtail pedestrian casualties. After analysis, a speed limit reduction to 20 mph is the favored policy alternative. It saves the most lives, and costs very little to implement. Quite simply, science says that slower cars are less likely to kill people. Only 5% of pedestrians struck by vehicles going 20 mph or less are killed, compared to a 40% 2

4 fatality rate for pedestrians struck by cars going 30 mph, and an 80% fatality rate for pedestrians struck by cars going 40 mph. Politically, this is the most difficult alternative to introduce. However, other large cities, including London and Paris, have introduced 20 mph speed limits, allowing NYC the opportunity to study its effects. The status quo is also recommended, due to the future introduction of autonomous vehicles, which will save lives, although integration into the existing vehicle fleet will take decades (this policy memorandum has only a five-year scope). This policy memorandum finds that broad, overarching policies, instead of narrowly targeted infrastructure policies, are cheaper and more effective in reducing pedestrian casualties. 3

5 1. Introduction On Christmas Day, 2011, 23-year old Josbel Rivera was crossing the Mosholu Parkway in the Bronx on foot when a vehicle struck and killed him. 1 The driver, who had a suspended license, fled the scene of the crime and burned his vehicle in an attempt to hide the evidence. Detectives from the New York Police Department (NYPD) went to Josbel's house on Christmas night to tell his family what had happened. The detectives gathered the family together, and through one of the children present, translated from English to Spanish the horrifying details of Josbel's death. Belkys Rivera, Josbel's mother, wept upon hearing the news. The detectives present were also "heartbroken". Ms. Rivera said about her son: "The world will be denied Josbel s contribution." These types of needless tragedies occur every day in New York City. However, government officials, non-profit organizations, and community leaders are attempting to eliminate pedestrian fatalities due to traffic. Mayor Bill de Blasio has started to institute Vision Zero, a platform of traffic and pedestrian engineering policies that have reduced pedestrian fatalities in Sweden by 30% since It is the boldest attempt yet by a large U.S. city to reduce pedestrian casualties, and if successful, will usher in broad public policy advancements in large cities throughout the country. 4

6 2. Problem Definition Reducing pedestrian injuries/deaths (casualties) due to traffic is an increasingly publicized New York City (NYC) government policy. In 2013, data shows that NYC had 183 pedestrian fatalities due solely to traffic accidents, 3 an increase from 2012, which saw 135 deaths, 1,400 serious injuries, and over 10,000 total pedestrian injuries. 4 While these numbers have decreased since 1990, which saw 365 pedestrian fatalities, they are once again beginning to rise. 5 Walking rates, which have increased 12.9% since 2007, are leading to more pedestrian casualties. 6 An NYC pedestrian dies five times more often than the U.S. average (52% of all NYC traffic fatalities are pedestrians, versus 11% nationwide). 7 Pedestrian KSI's (deaths/serious injuries) are a problem that Mayor Bill de Blasio has addressed with Vision Zero, a plan to reduce fatalities from traffic to zero. In addition to pedestrian casualties, New York City traffic crashes killed 119 drivers and passengers in 2012, along with 17 bicyclists. 8 Although NYC has a low pedestrian fatality rate nationwide (3.49 per 100,000 people, versus in Atlanta, for example), it pales in comparison to other major international cities, such as Stockholm (1.23), Berlin (1.60), and Tokyo (1.70). 9 Traffic accidents are the third leading cause of death for New Yorkers from age Pedestrian traffic accidents cost New York City's economy $1.38 billion per year, 11 while they cost London $800 million, 12 and San Francisco $76 million (see Figure 1 below). 13 Throughout the country, "non-occupant injury problems account for an estimated 14% of annual U.S. highway crash costs". 14 Pedestrian casualty numbers need to be reduced and will be the main focus of this policy memorandum. They are a problem that may necessitate government action. While pedestrian casualties are not a market failure, they are a problem because the direct costs of pedestrian casualties to victims and their families are high and avoidable in many circumstances, as this policy memorandum will detail. Pedestrian casualties also create negative externalities by increasing insurance rates for all New Yorkers. One of government's main functions is to save lives. Increasing NYC population and walking rates are likely to result in more pedestrian casualties and "crashes due to preventable factors", unless action is taken. 15 Alternatives to reduce casualties for pedestrians include: 1) Status quo (enforcement of existing 5

7 speeding and jaywalking statutes); 2) More speed bumps and lighting; 3) Lowering the speed limit to 20 mph; and 4) Dutch-style intersections to cordon off pedestrians and bicyclists from traffic. This policy memorandum will next discuss the methods of measuring pedestrian casualties before investigating the issue in depth, discussing the alternative policies to prevent pedestrian casualties, calculating a costbenefit analysis, making strategic recommendations, and finally, describing the memorandum's weaknesses and limitations. Economic Impact of Pedestrian Casualties (Per Year) $1,600,000,000 $1,400,000,000 $1,200,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $800,000,000 $600,000,000 $400,000,000 Economic Impact $200,000,000 $0 New York City London San Francisco [Figure 1: Economic Impact of Pedestrian Casualties (Per Year).] Problem Definition: There are too many pedestrian injuries and fatalities due to traffic in New York City. 6

8 3. Methods This policy memorandum will measure the total monetary cost of NYC pedestrian casualties. In each alternative policy presented, studies from NYC and other cities around the world where the alternatives have been implemented will measure a percentage difference in casualties. Any monetary savings for each alternative from reduced casualties will be measured and applied to the benefits section of the cost-benefit analysis (CBA). While monetary benefits and quality of life factors will be utilized as part of the final policy recommendation in this memorandum, the main criterion for success will be a reduction of casualties from each alternative. Therefore, the CBA will show both monetary benefits and casualties saved for each alternative over a five-year period. This policy memorandum will use 2012 New York City casualty numbers as a baseline for study. The NYPD releases initial casualty totals soon after a calendar year. Later in the year, the New York State Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) releases final, and official, casualty data for the previous year for both New York State and New York City. The casualty numbers in this policy memorandum's Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) reflect final 2012 DMV casualty totals for NYC. The NYC Department of Transportation (DOT) released an influential August 2010 study called "New York City Pedestrian Safety Study & Action Plan", which will provide a number of key data points for this policy memorandum. The study, encompassing data from , looks at the places where pedestrian casualties occur, when they occur, and how they occur. Because of the multiple years studied by the DOT, percentages from this 2010 study can be reliably estimated to measure instances of pedestrian casualties using this policy memorandum's 2012 baseline data. For instance, the study says that 74% of pedestrian casualties take place at intersections, while 60% of casualties occur on arterial roads. 16 Also, while Manhattan contains a greater rate of pedestrian KSI's per mile of road, Brooklyn has a greater number of pedestrian casualties. 17 Therefore, a decision was made to study pedestrian casualties for NYC in total, as the problem extends to all of NYC's boroughs. To find the costs to pedestrians for casualties (the bulk of the CBA), this policy memorandum 7

9 uses a 2004 study by Ted R. Miller, et al, titled "Pedestrian and Pedalcyclist Injury Costs in the United States by Age and Injury Severity". This study uses year 2000 costs over 18 months (which this policy memorandum adjusts for inflation) to come up with medical costs for each pedestrian casualty, quality of life costs, and the costs of future wage losses. There are two sections to this study, for those ages 15 and above, and those below age 15. Because the costs per casualty were similar ($138,000 for adults, 80% of casualties, versus $127,000 for children), this policy memorandum uses the adult numbers. As expected, most of the costs are derived from fatalities. However, because the fatality rate for all casualties in the study is much higher, 3.5%, than the NYC pedestrian fatality rate of 1.5%, the total costs were reweighted lower for this policy memorandum. After proper inflation is applied, the cost per casualty in NYC for medical expenses, quality of life factors, and wage losses is $105, Other costs and benefits, limited compared to the costs to pedestrians, will be added to the CBA and explained while addressing stakeholders in this policy memorandum. This policy memorandum uses casualties in total (injuries and fatalities) for two reasons. First of all, the majority of costs tied up in pedestrian casualties stem from fatalities. Transalt measures each NYC fatality cost at $16 million. 19 Secondly, because of the high number of injuries and limited number of fatalities, injuries are a better "barometer" of NYC's progress in limiting pedestrian casualties, as they are less subject to chance, unlike fatalities, according to Streetsblog. Injuries increased by 1% from 2011 to 2012, with only 47 pedestrian fatalities in 2012 due to pedestrian error. 20 Both fatalities and injuries are vital in addressing the issue of pedestrian casualties due to traffic. This policy memorandum makes an important assumption. If a given study uses a percentage to explain reduced traffic, KSI's, fatalities, or injuries, this percentage is often times used for other related measurements. In many cases, studies used in this policy memorandum to look at alternatives have similarly reduced percentages of fatalities, KSI's, and injuries, providing high confidence in transferability from one category to another. If a study mentions a percentage reduction in KSI's, often times there will be a similar percentage reduction in overall casualties. Therefore, this policy memorandum applies percentages to all casualties, even if a study only mentions a percentage reduction in fatalities or KSI's. 8

10 4. Issue Analysis A. History and Politics of Vision Zero In 1997, the Swedish Parliament first implemented Vision Zero, an innovative plan to eliminate all traffic and pedestrian fatalities through careful planning. The country believed it was unprepared for 21st century traffic challenges, and due to a rising population, envisioned rising traffic and pedestrian fatalities. Today, Stockholm has a fatality rate due to traffic of 1.1 per 100,000 citizens, less than onethird of NYC. 21 Fatalities have decreased 30% since London also began addressing pedestrian fatalities in the previous decades, which "have dropped by over 75% since the late 1980s", more than NYC (see Figure 2 below). 23 [Figure 2: New York City vs. London Fatality Rate, from NYC's Vision Zero document] 9

11 The Dutch have utilized new intersection design and lower speed limits since the 1970's, with pedestrian fatalities falling by 75% during that period. 24 Paris recently lowered speed limits to 19 mph (30 km) for one-third of its streets in an effort to reduce pedestrian casualties. 25 The Paris Public Safety Campaign resulted in a 19% reduction in pedestrian casualties from Other areas in the European Union (EU) have also taken notice of Vision Zero. The EU Green Party is currently pushing to have 30 kph enacted as the default speed limit for all EU countries. NYC began addressing traffic fatalities in earnest during the administration of Mayor Michael Bloomberg, which began in 2002 (see Figure 3 below). Various changes, including speed cameras, new street parking regulations, and bicycle lanes, were implemented. 27 However, new intersection design was the major alteration. Since 2001, traffic deaths have decreased by 26% in NYC. 28 Timeline of Major Events Affecting Pedestrian Safety Early&1970's:" The" Netherlands" reduces" speed"limits" and"changes" intersec4on" design;" Pedestrian" casual4es" fall"75%"over" decades" 1997:& Swedish" Parliament," seeing" popula4on" increases," ins4tutes" Vision&Zero;" Pedestrian" fatali4es" have"fallen" 30%"since" 2002:&NYC" Mayor" Michael" Bloomberg" begins" addressing" pedestrian" casual4es"by" focusing"on" intersec4on" redesign;" casual4es" begin"to"fall" November" 2013:"Bill"de" Blasio" elected" Mayor"of" NYC"on"a" promise"to" ins4tute" Vision&Zero& January& 2014:"Paris" reduces" speed"limit" to"20"mph;" pedestrian" casual4es" fall"over"15%" from"2013" 1990:&NYC" reaches"701" traffic" fatali4es;" 365"are" pedestrian" fatali4es" 2001:" London" ins4tutes"20" mph"zones," where" pedestrian" casual4es" have"fallen" by"40%"since" 2012:&10,438" pedestrian" casual4es"in" NYC,"135" fatali4es" 2013:&183" pedestrian" fatali4es"in" NYC" October& 2014:&NYC" Speed"Limit" Reduced"to" 25"mph" [Figure 3: Timeline of Important Events in Pedestrian Safety.] NYC's new Mayor, Bill de Blasio, was inaugurated in early Because NYC still sees 4,000 KSI's due to traffic accidents a year (1,400 for pedestrians), 29 he campaigned on Vision Zero. After inauguration he began implementing his initiatives, adding an extra $28.8 million to the FY budget for Vision Zero. 30 NYC has recently reduced its lowest speed limit to 25 mph from 30 mph on arterial streets in an effort to slow down traffic. Enforcement of existing speed limits and jaywalking has increased. More speed cameras are being implemented near schools, a previous policy. Speed bumps and 10

12 new lighting, part of Vision Zero, are being increased. Intersection alterations are continuing en masse, especially near high incident areas. Ticketing drivers for pedestrian accidents, previously rare, has been an increasing occurrence. A change in toll structure is once again being considered in an effort to reduce traffic and increase mass transit, biking, and walking (a congestion pricing plan had previously failed to be approved during the Bloomberg administration). Stricter taxi regulations, including data collection of taxi movements, are part of the plan. 31 However, NYC is looking to work with private organizations that operate large vehicle fleets, such as taxis, in an effort to come up with mutually beneficial ideas to prevent pedestrian casualties. Mayor de Blasio has been both aggressive and prudent in his pursuit of Vision Zero. [Figure 4: From The NYC Pedestrian Safety Study & Action Plan, August 2010] According to the NYC DOT, traffic crashes have cost the U.S. 2.3% of GDP since State and local governments recognized a problem. The U.S., through states and municipalities, is currently attempting to implement solutions. Mayor de Blasio and NYC are taking the lead in total implementation 11

13 of Vision Zero, and are putting these policies to the test in the U.S. However, other states and municipalities have also implemented Vision Zero principles. Minnesota, Utah, and other states that have endorsed and enacted Vision Zero policies have seen their fatality rates plummet 25% more than states without Vision Zero policies. 33 Washington State is implementing Vision Zero principles, including reduced speed limits to 20 mph, 34 and Colorado has taken notice. 35 Progressive cities such as San Francisco 36 and Chicago 37 are beginning to look at Vision Zero policies, especially a reduction of speed limits. However, the first true test of Vision Zero is taking place in NYC through Mayor de Blasio's policies. If it is deemed a success, other large cities in the U.S. and around the world will take notice. Other international cities utilizing Vision Zero principles have seen a decrease in fatality rates, though some American cities, such as Atlanta, have yet to take notice (see Figure 4 above). Los Angeles is a large city with high driving and pedestrian fatality rates that has finally started to enact Vision Zero policies. 38 Mayor de Blasio's Vision Zero efforts, if successful, will produce a new trend in traffic policy nationwide. [Figure 5: from The NYC Pedestrian Safety Study & Action Plan, August 2010] Figure 5, from a 2010 NYC DOT report, provides a good summary for pedestrian casualties in each borough. Figure 6, from the New York Times, is a visualization of 2013 pedestrian fatalities. While pedestrian KSI's are most intense in Manhattan, the absolute number of KSI's is highest in Brooklyn. Queens and the Bronx each have a high number of pedestrian KSI's. Therefore, NYC felt the need to address pedestrian casualties in each borough. City politics makes choosing one borough difficult, although more money is being spent in the larger boroughs (Brooklyn and Manhattan). Employment patterns also force NYC to address this issue in each borough, as many citizens commute to other 12

14 boroughs for work each day, increasing travel and opportunities for accidents. Some citizens who live in Brooklyn may be injured in Queens or Manhattan. This policy memorandum chooses to address pedestrian casualties for NYC as a whole, not leaving out a particular borough. Political conditions and the balance of power between New York State (NYS or Albany) and NYC affect traffic ordinances in NYC. Due to state law, Albany has veto power over new initiatives by the New York City Council that circumvent state law. The recent speed limit reduction from 30 mph to 25 mph needed approval from Albany, first, before NYC [Figure 6: "Where Pedestrians and Bicyclists are Injured, And Why" - New York Times, May 2, 2014] approved the change. 39 Also, new speed camera implementation in NYC needed state approval, even though some speed cameras already existed. 40 Any new congestion tax or toll alteration will need both state and city approval before implementation. Obviously, the will of the people matters as well. Also, NYC borough politics comes into play, as each borough has its own political base and power. Some worry that funding increases for Vision Zero and a partial reallocation of NYPD attention from crime prevention to traffic enforcement will cause an increase in NYC crime rates. Some politicians and advocacy groups represent "spenders", willing to use the NYC budget for their own purposes, while other politicians and city officials represent "guardians", who are reluctant to create budget deficits and use unlimited resources to fight this problem. Taken together, new changes in NYC law need to go through many hurdles before they are cleared for implementation. Making matters more difficult is the political and personal tension between Governor Andrew Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio, both Democrats who are looking to be the face of their party. Governor Cuomo has looked to block another important de Blasio initiative, increasing taxes on the wealthy to pay for increased access to pre-school. 41 Although Cuomo was able to find funding for the initiative in the state budget, tensions remain between the state's two most important political leaders. 13

15 B. Stakeholders For this policy memorandum, stakeholders are separated into three main categories: citizens, businesses, and government. Citizen stakeholders include drivers, pedestrians, and bicyclists. These stakeholders carry the most weight and importance in this policy memorandum, as they are most prone to life-changing injuries. These stakeholders are citizens from NYC who travel to work, socialize, and shop. They include metro-area residents who commute into the city from the suburbs and who are included in official pedestrian casualty statistics. These statistics also include tourists who visit NYC, often times from overseas. The CBA will not include direct costs to bicyclists involved in traffic accidents with cars (absent pedestrians), however reductions in pedestrian accidents associated with the alternatives in the policy memorandum will produce positive externalities associated with bicyclists that will be added to the CBA. Due to the complexities of measurement and the focus of the policy memorandum on pedestrians, the costs of regular traffic accidents between cars (absent pedestrians) will not be included in the CBA costs and benefits. However, the alternatives presented in this policy memorandum that reduce pedestrian casualties are also likely to produce corresponding reductions in traffic accidents. London saw a reduction in "injury accidents" of 43% after introduction of its 20 mph zones. 42 The costs for citizen stakeholders due to pedestrian traffic casualties include medical costs and healthcare, quality of life costs, wage losses, insurance and legal costs, money paid to government due to alternatives (enforcement of laws), and car/property damage for drivers due to pedestrian accidents. Although all medical costs are applied to citizens in this policy memorandum, it should be noted that in reality these costs are paid by various sources. Insurance companies, the government, and businesses cover many medical costs, some of which are passed onto other consumers. Hospitals also end up paying for medical care for citizens without insurance, although in some instances these debts are passed onto other consumers in the form of fewer services and budget cuts

16 [Figure 7: Stakeholders in NYC Crossing the Street. Pond5.com.] Reduced casualties due to the alternatives lead to benefits, in the form of cost savings, for citizen stakeholders. Benefits also include fewer labor disruptions. Positive externalities include savings for bicyclists who are not involved in accidents due to the alternatives. Lower health and automobile insurance rates are also a likely positive externality, although they will not be added to this CBA. The second main stakeholders are businesses in NYC. Pedestrian casualties affect businesses in various ways. When there is construction near a business, it has been proven to reduce revenue for the business by as much as 25%, as consumers are driven away from construction zones to spend money elsewhere (due to noise and traffic). 44 Businesses are forced to pay workers compensation claims for employees injured on the job, which costs over $21,000 per claimant, according to an NCCI study. 45 Truck drivers involved in accidents or getting ticketed are also a part of business stakeholders. Finally, businesses lose money due to employee dislocations after a pedestrian casualty. Benefits to businesses include reduced costs of the above factors due to reduced pedestrian casualties. Also, some government policies may increase walking rates amongst citizens, thereby increasing economic gains for business. It is noted that walkers are 40% more likely to spend money than those citizens in cars

17 The third main stakeholder is NYC government, which sees costs from emergency services and outlays for policy alternatives, such as intersection alterations. Opportunity costs for NYC policies, from rising crime rates due to the police focusing on pedestrians, to opportunities for other government programs, will also be included in the CBA. Benefits for government include increased revenue from the alternatives (in the form of tickets or tax revenue from businesses), reduction in emergency services outlays, and cost savings due to LED lights and other policy initiatives. Economically, a low up front "Willingness to Pay" for citizen stakeholders make many of the alternatives to reduce pedestrian casualties viable, as money for the alternatives either comes from taxes or from select citizen stakeholders who receive tickets. Nevertheless, Kaldor-Hicks (a policy should be enacted if citizens who gain can fully compensate citizens who will lose and still be better off) will be difficult to guarantee, as some citizen stakeholders may be unhappy to lose money from speeding or jaywalking citations. However, if policy alternatives are successful, monetary transfers via better mass transit services, less congestion, fewer delays due to accidents, and lower auto and medical insurance rates can make the alternatives effective. Pareto improvement (the policies provide sufficient net gains so that all losers can be compensated) is likely due to these potential transfers. * C. Diagnosing the Causes of Pedestrian Casualties NYC contains upwards of 12,300 intersections, making the task of assuring pedestrian safety immense. Between 2007 and 2013, the city has implemented "safety design on 137 street corridors and 113 intersections". 47 Also, 350 miles of bicycle lanes have been added to NYC streets since These tasks are expensive, costing millions of dollars for major renovations. NYC finds infrastructure areas to address through statistics, much of it put together by the DOT in the influential August 2010 "New York * In an efficient insurance market with relatively equal costs from providers and full coverage of consumers, fewer pedestrian casualties will reduce the 4-9% of pedestrian accident costs associated with insurance administration, with savings passed onto all consumers. Alas, the U.S. does not have an efficient insurance market, and even though NYC pedestrian casualties have fallen the last 25 years, insurance rates continue to rise, albeit for other structural reasons. 16

18 City Pedestrian Safety Study and Action Plan". 49 Who? In the 2010 study, the DOT relates that "vulnerable roads users" accounted for 71% of all traffic fatalities, pedestrians accounting for 52% of the total. The second leading cause of death for children ages 5-14 and adults over the age of 45 in NYC are pedestrian crashes. This is due to the "fragility" of seniors and children. Although educated (college-educated and higher) New Yorkers "make up 48% of the population", they only account for 30% of fatalities among adults. Low-income citizens, due to a lack of car ownership, must rely on walking, biking, and mass transit to reach their destination. This puts these pedestrians at greater risk of being injured or killed in a traffic accident. Inordinately, many of these low-income citizens are minorities, exacerbating existing inequalities. [Figure 8: The New York City Pedestrian Safety Study & Action Plan. August 2010.] On the driver side of pedestrian accidents, according to the 2010 DOT study, passenger cars make up 79% of vehicles involved in pedestrian accidents, the rest being primarily taxis and trucks (see Figure 8 above). Taxis make up only 2.1% of registrations in NYC, but account for 13% of total KSI's. Although this policy memorandum does not study an alternative directly for taxis, policies may need to be studied and implemented to reign in the recklessness of taxi drivers. Trucks, involved in 4% of pedestrian accidents, are making right turns 31% of the time, while only 6% of truck/pedestrian accidents happen on left turns. This is due to the length of trucks, which sometime overlap pedestrian walkways on right turns (trucks making left turns are more likely to hit other vehicles). Where? According to the 2010 DOT study, major two-way streets in Manhattan account for 47% of pedestrian fatalities and 34% of severe injuries, although these two-way streets only represent 12% of streets in Manhattan. Due to extensive jaywalking, especially in Manhattan, two-way streets represent more detail for pedestrians to worry about when crossing. This problem also occurs on busy streets in 17

19 other boroughs. Multiple-lane two-way streets (four or more lanes total), allow for higher speeds, making a pedestrian's task more difficult. Proper intersection signaling is necessary on these streets, but jaywalkers put themselves in great danger by attempting to illegally cross the street. Arterial streets, containing many of these two-way, multiple-lane streets, represent "only 15% of the road network", but 60% of pedestrian fatalities citywide. These streets contain "large volumes of traffic at higher speeds", and often follow important subway and bus routes in NYC. The DOT notes that streets with bike lanes, including arterials, produce fewer pedestrian and bicycle rider casualties due to a change in driver behavior. As was previously noted from the [Figure 9: New Left Turn Signal on 96th St. and Broadway in Manhattan. Photo Taken by Author.] 2010 DOT study, 74% of pedestrian KSI crashes were at intersections. Nationwide, this number is only 24%, signifying the importance of intersection design in NYC (see Figure 9 left). In 2008, 47% of all pedestrian KSI's were at "signal intersections". 57% of these intersection KSI's were when the pedestrian had the right of way, meaning that cars failed to yield properly. 43% of these accidents were the fault of the pedestrian (see Figure 10 below). According to the DOT, 12.9% of all pedestrian casualties in NYC were due to jaywalkers who illegally crossed the middle of a street. 50 When? The 2010 DOT study notes that pedestrian KSI's nationally take place mostly between the hours of 8pm and 4am (46%). NYC has a "different crash profile", with 40% of pedestrian KSI's clustered between the hours of 3pm and 9pm (see Figure 11 below). The study believes this profile stems from 18

20 pedestrian behavior due to commuting, along with late afternoon shopping and the typical NYC "Happy Hour", which takes place between 5pm-9pm. The study also says that fatality rates are twice as high Jaywalking (Middle of Street) 13% Sidewalk/Side of Road/Other 13% Signal Intersections (Pedestrian Failure- to- Obey) 20% Where Pedestrian KSI's Occur Non- Signal Intersections 27% Signal Intersections (Driver Failure- to- Yield) 27% [Figure 10: "Where Pedestrian KSI's Occur". Information Gathered From NYC DOT.] during the hours of 12am-6am as during other time periods. The DOT believes that less traffic during these hours leads to higher vehicular speeds, along with the assumption by drivers that there is little pedestrian "volume" during the early morning. Finally, the 2010 DOT study notes that there are 20% more pedestrian KSI crashes during the holiday months of November and December. This is due to higher alcohol consumption during holidays, more "shopping activity", and worsening road conditions [Figure 11: Pedestrian KSI's and Fatalities by Time of Day. NYC DOT.] 19

21 due to winter weather. Darkness itself is not a factor, as January and February "are among the lowest crash months of the year". Why? Diagnosing the reasons for pedestrian crashes, which the 2010 NYC DOT study provides, is a prime method for figuring out how to combat pedestrian casualties. The study collected information from NYPD crash reports from to determine the cause of pedestrian accidents (see Figure 12 below). Driver inattention caused 36% of all pedestrian KSI crashes, with a driver failure to yield causing 27% of crashes. A "small proportion" of failure to yield crashes is "strict red light running". Sadly, in [Figure 12: Why Do Pedestrian Casualties Occur? Information Taken From NYC DOT.] 2001 failure to yield crashes accounted for only 14% of fatal crashes, which means the problem has grown relative to other causes (up 93%) in the last decade. More than likely, increased walking and biking rates are causing a greater proportion of failure to yield crashes. Ticketing these drivers may have to increase in order reduce pedestrian casualties. Pedestrians themselves cause 20% of KSI's by crossing against a signal. Left turns by cars also lead to more pedestrian crashes than right turns. Cars that are double-parked lead to blind spots for drivers, which increase the chances of pedestrian accidents. Bicyclists, especially, are vulnerable to drivers when cars are double-parked, as they are forced to venture 20

22 off bicycle lanes and further into the road. Cars are three times more likely to hit pedestrians while making left turns, as the "A-Pillar" connecting the driver's side window to the windshield restricts viewing and causes blind spots. More mental effort and the propensity of driver errors increase on left turns. According to the 2013 NYC DOT Sustainable Streets study, NYC has installed 175 left turn bans between 2007 and One boy, Cooper Stock, (see Figure 13 below) was killed in front of his father at 97th Street and West End Avenue in January 2014 by a taxi making a left turn, causing an uproar. 52 A particularly problematic intersection at 96th Street and Broadway, which resulted in numerous pedestrian accidents in a short period of time in early 2014, helped lead to efforts to protect pedestrians citywide, and eventually Mayor de Blasio's call for Vision Zero. A left turn only light was recently enacted at this controversial intersection to prevent cars and pedestrians from interactions (see Figure 9 above). Speeding cars lead to 21% of pedestrian KSI's. The DOT notes that these crashes are twice as likely to lead to a fatality. Speed kills. Interestingly, most New Yorkers were unaware that the previous city speed limit, unless otherwise specified, was 30 mph. Since the speed limit was changed to 25 mph in 2014, drivers are more likely to be aware of the minimum/baseline speed limit, as it has been in the news. Speed limits can be higher on some streets, if the city desires. [Figure 13: Cooper Stock, the Boy Killed on West End Avenue. His Death Partially Led to Vision Zero. 53 ] 21

23 D. Current and Future Trends Associated with Pedestrian Casualties There are numerous other issues that need to be taken under consideration when thinking about current and future traffic policies. The first and most important is population in NYC, which has seen an increase three years in a row, moving past 8.4 million people in The 2010 census had close to 8.2 million people, meaning there has been a large increase in only three years. In the 2000 census, NYC had a population of 8 million, an increase of 700,000 since It is clear that NYC's allure and wealth attract migrants from all over the world. This is unlikely to change. However, unlike other metropolises, NYC, with its physical geography mainly on islands, has no room to grow. Mayor Bloomberg believes NYC's population will reach 9 million by Increasing population density will continue to create problems with housing and real estate, education, infrastructure, and traffic management. Unless NYC is proactive, higher population density will create more interactions on the streets between cars and pedestrians, likely increasing the raw total of pedestrian casualties. Also increasing the opportunities for pedestrian casualties are the increase in NYC walking rates over the previous decade. According to the Move NY plan, mass transit use has increased 11% in NYC since 2003, with a decline in traffic by 6.3%. This creates more walkers coming off the mass transit system. Walking rates have increased by 12.9% since 2007 throughout the city. In the Central Business District (CBD - Manhattan below 59th Street), walking rates increased by 2.5% in 2011 and 1.8% in 2012, during the economic recovery. 57 An improving economy will likely lead to higher walking rates in the coming years, increasing the chances of pedestrian casualties. Some New Yorkers are unenthusiastic about increased traffic enforcement, even starting protests, although enforcement may be necessary. 58 Jaywalking and speeding citations have increased dramatically in 2014 (see alternative one below), creating more interactions between police and citizens. Some citizens believe more police interactions will lead to more arrests due to petty crimes. More NYPD/citizen interactions could exacerbate already tense relations between the two parties, especially after the Eric Garner chokehold death on Staten Island in July 2014 made national news. 59 Also, privacy violations due 22

24 to traffic cameras are a concern for some constituents, believing their use will lead to an Orwellian society. 60 American citizens have a constitutional right to face their accuser, an opportunity that cameras do not afford. Americans do not want to live in a police state. Some constituents believe the 190 red-light and 140 speed cameras NYC deploys are simply revenue generators. 61 Revenue from these sources is due to increase by 50% to $62 million for FY 2015, from $41 million for FY 2014, which was also a massive increase from the previous year. 62 The speed limit reduction to 25 mph is also being looked at as a consequence of the "nanny-state", an increasing talking point in NYC politics after the attempted banning of large sugar sodas by Mayor Bloomberg. 63 All of these enforcement concerns from citizens create political difficulties for NYC when implementing tactics to reduce traffic and pedestrian accidents. Political infighting, creeping government power, and costs associated with some of the expensive alternatives to address pedestrian casualties are the main objections to the new policies addressed in this policy memorandum. There are very few investigations of accidents in NYC, which creates unintended consequences. In 2011, the Accident Investigation Squad, containing 19 people, investigated only 304 traffic crashes in NYC. 64 This number is a pittance, as there were over 10,000 pedestrians alone injured, many seriously, and 143 killed. 65 If drivers are aware that their actions may have significant legal ramifications, they will be more likely to pay strict attention to the law and traffic rules. Robust deterrence can prevent some drivers from entering the vehicle. Most drivers in pedestrian accidents have no ill intentions, and should not be treated as criminals. However, unlicensed drivers knowingly commit a crime when entering a vehicle ("mens rea"), and should be prosecuted harshly in the public sphere when they cause injury to others. 66 Other drivers flee the scene of accidents, which only more NYPD investigatory resources can remedy. 67 Deterrence policies are controversial. Many criminologists do not believe they are effective. 68 The NYPD, expending minimal resources toward investigations, does not believe harsh deterrence after an accident is useful. However, as evidenced by the data presented in alternative one of this policy memorandum, proper deterrence for traffic violations can be effective in changing behavior. Preventative measures presented in alternatives two, three, and four are also helpful in reducing pedestrian casualties. 23

25 A. Alternative One: The Status Quo 5. Alternatives The first alternative to study in this policy memorandum is the status quo, which consists of pre- Vision Zero enforcement policies that are global in nature (i.e. they affect every area of the city at all times). NYC has already enacted policies to prevent pedestrian casualties, but they will be enforced to a greater degree. The three policies that consist of this alternative include: 1) Greater enforcement of jaywalking by the NYPD; 2) Greater enforcement of the existing speed limit; and 3) Implementation of new speed cameras. NYC and the NYPD began carrying out these three policies in earnest beginning in The three individual effects of these policies will be combined to find a percentage reduction of casualties (and costs) that will be added to benefits on this policy memorandum's CBA. The goal of this alternative is to enforce existing statutes in order to alter human behavior, thereby preventing pedestrian casualties. Enforcement will likely prevent the excessive speeding of vehicles, which cause 21% of all pedestrian casualties according to the 2010 NYC DOT study, and reduce the instances of jaywalking, which contributes to 12.9% of all pedestrian casualties. 69 Citing drivers who cause pedestrian casualties to a greater degree may also cause a shift in behavior, although this policy memorandum does not study these effects. Jaywalking is a problem nationwide, but an especially unique problem for NYC, which relies less on cars than many other cities. NYC has a car ownership rate of 43.5%, 70 while a city like Los Angeles has an ownership rate of 86.4%. 71 NYC sees 50 jaywalking fatalities per year, costing the city millions of dollars. 72 The DOT measured jaywalking on one street in midtown Manhattan during a weekday, and found that 1,200 pedestrians an hour crossed "midblock". 73 This is an extraordinary finding, presenting challenges to NYC policymakers. Summonses for jaywalking are up 150% in 2014, according to the NYPD's Chief of Transportation Thomas Chan. 74 This increases revenue for the city and takes money from citizens, at $50 per ticket, while at the same time altering behavior. A 2003 study called "Quality of Life Policing: Do 24

26 Richardson Offenders Get the Message?" measured a 16.5% reduction in jaywalking by the intended targets after an enforcement increase in NYC, which will be used as the estimation in this policy memorandum. While this is a police study, it compares favorably to an influential 1973 study by Donald C. Shoup, which saw a reduction in petty crime by 13% when offenders are "merely" approached, and not ticketed.75 This reduction in petty crime shows that an increased police presence can have a positive effect on behavior. Dallas uses strong jaywalking enforcement to prevent crimes in other areas in a "Broken Windows" style of policing, to the consternation of citizens.76 Enforcement is not popular in NYC, as citizens have complained about the NYPD's tactics in 2014 and believe it is simply a revenue generator. More robust ticketing can also create more petty criminals, as some citizens are unable to pay their fines.77 Although ticketing jaywalkers is official NYC policy, summonses may not be necessary to prevent pedestrian casualties. Regardless of the tactic, seven to eight lives per year can be saved, with dozens of injuries that can be prevented. [Figure 14: The NYPD at Work Protecting Citizens. (Wikipedia)] 25

27 The second policy in this alternative is to reinforce the existing speed limit through more NYPD officer ticketing of drivers. Because 21% of pedestrian casualties are due to speeding, according to the 2010 DOT report, this effort is likely to pay dividends. The effort to ticket more drivers, reduce speed, and prevent pedestrian casualties has already begun. "The New York Police Department has issued 94,677 speeding tickets as of Oct. 24, up 37% from 69,032 by the same time last year." 78 There are many studies that look at the effects of speed on the frequency of traffic crashes, most of which find a direct causality. 79 Lower speed equals fewer crashes. This policy memorandum will use a study based out of Oxford, England, which began a crackdown on speeding using the existing speed limit. Following a 2001 speed limit reduction to 20 mph, Oxford saw an increase in traffic casualties, as enforcement was sporadic and undisciplined. However, the city began enforcing the speed limit to a greater degree in Enforcement of existing speed limits led to an 18% decrease in accidents. This reduction will be used as an estimation for reduced pedestrian casualties in this policy memorandum to measure the effects of greater police enforcement of existing speed limits. 80 Many of the same factors of jaywalking enforcement apply to speed enforcement, including a concern over increased police/citizen interactions, the public's annoyance at the NYPD's tactics, the goal of the NYPD to alter behavior through enforcement, and concern over the tactic as a revenue generator. Some worry that greater NYPD attention to speeding will produce opportunity costs in the form of higher crime rates. However, there are zero opportunity costs, as 2014 crime rates continue to decrease, meaning the NYPD is still able to do their job in crime prevention while focusing on more speed enforcement. 81 The third policy to be used for the status quo alternative is the use of 120 new speed cameras near schools to reduce speeding. NYC, which had 20 existing speed cameras close to schools, was recently given the right by Albany to introduce 120 more speed cameras. 82 The issues of privacy and citizen concern over revenue generation led Albany to restrict speed camera usage to streets near schools, in an effort to prevent pedestrian casualties to children. Officials worry about speeding cars near schools, as children who go about their day playing are more vulnerable than other pedestrians. Revenue generation from cameras is expected to increase by 50% for FY 2015, mostly from 26

28 speed cameras (at $50-70 per infraction, according to the New York Times). 83 Revenue from NYPD ticketing was only one-third that of cameras in FY 2014, meaning that NYC is becoming more reliant on cameras for both enforcement and revenue generation. 84 This is important in the wake of an NYPD "slowdown" in enforcement beginning in December 2014, in the wake of the Eric Garner death. 85 More reliance on cameras will mitigate the effects of police officer actions and stabilize NYC revenue. Speed%Camera%Studies Territory Casualty%Reduction Comments United'Kingdom 28% Privacy'concerns Barcelona 8846% Cameras'more'effective'on'highways'rather' than'arterial'roads Belgium 8829% Study'took'place'on'highways New'York'City 40845% Cameras'placed'near'schools;'2003'study'had' 2.2'casualties'per'school'per'year High%estimate%results%in%one%pedestrian% This%Policy%Memo 40% casualty%reduced%per%school [Figure 15: Data From Worldwide Speed Camera Studies.] In the United Kingdom, a four-year study by the Department of Transport on its camera program found that pedestrian injuries decreased by 28%. 86 However, the issue for citizens was privacy. A study in Barcelona found that speed cameras caused a reduction of pedestrian KSI's by 8-46% depending on the area studied. 87 Highways were deemed more effective than "slower arterial roads". Another study in Belgium saw an 8% reduction in injuries, with a 29% reduction in KSI's on highways. 88 The NYC DOT believes a 40-45% reduction in pedestrian KSI's will occur near schools with speed cameras. 89 Although the data cited have varying results, this memorandum will use the high estimation of a 40% reduction in pedestrian casualties due to speed cameras, as this will reflect a one pedestrian casualty per school reduction due to the policy (see Figure 15 above). A 2003 NYC DOT study found 300 pedestrian casualties per year near 135 priority schools, a rate of 2.2 casualties per school. 90 This status quo alternative, comprising the three policies of jaywalking enforcement, speed enforcement, and the use of speed limit cameras which were implemented in NYC in 2014, is expensive, as cameras cost on average $100,000 each. 91 Also, the NYPD is planning to increase enforcement personnel by 147 in their FY budget to implement Vision Zero, costing $13.3 million. 92 The use 27