Marcellus Acreage Acquisition Conference Call Presentation June 10, 2016

Transcription

1 Marcellus Acreage Acquisition Conference Call Presentation June 10, 2016

2 DISCLAIMERS This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of All statements, other than statements of historical facts, included in this presentation that address activities, events or developments that Antero Resources Corporation and its subsidiaries (collectively, the Company or Antero ) expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. The words believe, expect, anticipate, plan, intend, estimate, project, foresee, should, would, could, or other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that the statements are not forward-looking. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, forward-looking statements contained in this presentation specifically include estimates of the Company s reserves, estimated reserves and locations associated with acreage proposed to be acquired, average single well estimated ultimate recovery (EUR), expectations of plans, strategies, objectives and anticipated financial and operating results of the Company, including as to the Company s drilling program, production, hedging activities, capital expenditure levels and other guidance included in this presentation. These statements are based on certain assumptions made by the Company based on management s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, anticipated future developments and other factors believed to be appropriate. Such statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those implied or expressed by the forward-looking statements. These include the factors discussed or referenced under the heading Item 1A. Risk Factors in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015 and in the Company s subsequent filings with the SEC. The Company cautions you that these forward-looking statements are subject to all of the risks and uncertainties, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond our control, incident to the exploration for and development, production, gathering and sale of natural gas and oil. These risks include, but are not limited to our ability to successfully complete the pending acquisition and integrate the assets with our own and realize the benefits from the transaction, commodity price volatility, inflation, lack of availability of drilling and production equipment and services, environmental risks, drilling and other operating risks, regulatory changes, the uncertainty inherent in estimating natural gas and oil single well EURs and reserves and in projecting future rates of production, cash flow and access to capital, the timing of development expenditures, and the other risks described under the heading Risk Factors in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015 and in the Company s subsequent filings with the SEC. Additionally, the consummation of the acquisition is subject to customary closing conditions, and that there can be no assurances that the acquisition will be consummated or that the expected benefits of the acquisition will be realized. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made and the Company undertakes no obligation to correct or update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. Antero has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus) with the SEC for the offering to which this communication relates. Before you invest, you should read the prospectus in that registration statement and other documents Antero has filed with the SEC for more complete information about Antero and the offering. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC Web site at Alternatively, the issuer, any underwriter or any dealer participating in the offering will arrange to send you the prospectus if you request it by contacting Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC at Antero Resources Corporation is denoted as AR and Antero Midstream Partners LP is denoted as AM in the presentation, which are their respective New York Stock Exchange ticker symbols. 1

3 ASSET ACQUISITION SUMMARY Purchase Price: $450 million Assets: 55,000 net acres primarily located in Wetzel, Tyler and Doddridge Counties, WV 100% Marcellus and 75% of acreage includes Utica rights stacked pay 14 MMcfe/d of net production Pro Forma Acreage Position Midstream Rights: No third party dedications or commitments on 95% of the acreage Uncommitted acreage will be fully dedicated to Antero Midstream (NYSE: AM) for gathering, compression, processing and water infrastructure Closing: 3Q 2016 Tag-Along Right: A third party has the right for 30 days following signing of the PSA to sell its working interest share of the acreage on the same terms Tag-along right would add an estimated $110 million to the purchase price and 13,000 net acres and 3 MMcfe/d of production to the transaction Acquisition Acreage Districts with 3,000+ Antero Net Acres Antero Horizontal Marcellus Wells Industry Horizontal Marcellus Wells 2

4 LEADERSHIP IN MARCELLUS HIGH-GRADED CORE High- Graded Core Areas: Northern Rich Gas Southern Rich Gas Antero s internal reserve engineers have analyzed over 3,000 wells in southwest Marcellus, which led to the highgraded core outlines to the right Average wellhead recovery including condensate but before processing is as follows: Most Active Operators RRC, CNX, NBL AR, EQT, SWN Dry Gas EQT, CVX, RRC, CNX % Undeveloped (1) Advanced Completions (>1,300 lbs/ft) EUR / 1,000 Wells All Completions EUR / 1,000 Wells 58% % % Best Rock Washington and Greene Counties, PA and Wetzel, Tyler and Doddridge Counties, WV all have significant areas that average 1.9 to 2.2 Bcf/1,000 of recoveries at the wellhead using advanced completions (>1,300 lbs per foot and 33 Bbls of water per foot) Pro forma for the transaction, Antero controls approximately 237,000 undeveloped gross acres in the High-Graded areas Controls 53% of the undeveloped Southern Rich Gas area and 13% of the undeveloped Dry Gas area 1,600 undeveloped locations Southwest Marcellus High-Graded Core High-Graded Northern Rich ~200,000 acres 1.9 Bcf / 1,000 OHIO High-Graded Southern OHIO Rich ~375,000 acres 2.0 Bcf / 1,000 Potential for high-graded core outlines to expand as advanced completions are applied more broadly across the Marcellus core 1) % undeveloped calculation considers urban areas as developed. High-Graded Dry Gas ~900,000 acres 2.2 Bcf / 1,000 Southwest Marcellus Core ~4 Million Acres ~71% Undeveloped (1) Antero Acquisition Acreage EQT / STO Acquisition Acreage (May 2016) Vantage / Alpha Acquisition Acreage (May 2016) Districts with 3,000+ Antero Net Acres Antero Marcellus Wells Industry Marcellus Wells Antero Marcellus Rig Industry Marcellus Rig 3

5 ANTERO HAS THE LARGEST UNDEVELOPED CORE POSITION Pro forma for the acreage acquisition, Antero has nearly double the gross undeveloped acreage in the high-graded core areas of the Marcellus versus its next closest peer 500, , , ,000 Gross Southwest Marcellus High-Graded Core Acreage (1) High-Graded Southern Rich Gas Acres High-Graded Northern Rich Gas Acres High-Graded Dry Gas Acres Total SW Marcellus Core Acreage 350, , , , , , ,000 50, ,000 97,000 70,000 69,000 63,000 44,000 43,000 44,000 33,000 31,000 17,000 Antero Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 Peer 7 Peer 8 Peer 9 Peer 10 Peer 11 Peer Based on Antero geologic interpretation supported by state well data, company presentations and public land data. Includes C3+ NGLs and oil, but assumes ethane remains in gas stream. Operators with undeveloped High-Graded Core acreage include Ascent, CNX, CVX, EQT, Jay-Bee, MHR, RICE, RRC, SWN, Trans-Energy, Vantage & XTO. 2,000 4

6 LARGE INCREASE IN HIGHLY ECONOMIC WELL LOCATIONS The acquisition acreage is primarily located in areas where Antero is observing EURs of 2.0 Bcf/1,000 and higher driven by improved sand placement and now higher proppant loading Adds or enhances 310 Highly- Rich Gas / Condensate locations with estimated EURs in excess of current 1.7 Bcf/1,000 type curve ($MM) $16.0 $14.0 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 Pre-Tax PV-10 35% $ See detailed assumptions in appendix. 2. Excludes ethane. 3. Breakeven NYMEX price for 15% pre-tax rate of return. Assumes TCO differentials to NYMEX based on strip pricing. Highly-Rich Gas/Condensate ( BTU) Pre-Tax ROR 45% $ % $14.7 $0.0 AR Type Curve 1Q16 Average Upside Case Wellhead: 1.7 Bcf/1,000' 2.0 Bcf/1,000' 2.3 Bcf/1,000' Processed (2) : 2.3 Bcfe/1,000' 2.7 Bcfe/1,000' 3.1 Bcfe/1,000' Breakeven NYMEX Gas Price ($/MMBtu) (3) : $1.67 $1.40 $1.18 Adds or enhances 265 Highly-Rich Gas locations with estimated EURs in excess of current 1.7 Bcf/1,000 type curve ($MM) $16.0 $14.0 Pre-Tax PV-10 Pre-Tax ROR 733 Locations Pro Forma Highly-Rich Gas ( BTU) $12.0 1,154 38% Locations $ % Summary Assumptions: (1) Pro Forma $8.0 24% Well Cost: $8.5 million $6.0 Includes opex, FT and $1.2 million for $4.0 $10.1 $7.7 road, pad and production facilities $2.0 $5.2 Natural Gas & Oil 3/31/2016 strip $0.0 NGLs 37.5% of Oil Price 2016; 50% of AR Type Curve 1Q16 Average Upside Case Oil Price Wellhead: 1.7 Bcf/1,000' 2.0 Bcf/1,000' 2.3 Bcf/1,000' Processed (2) : 2.1 Bcfe/1,000' 2.5 Bcfe/1,000' 2.8 Bcfe/1,000' Breakeven NYMEX Gas Price ($/MMBtu) (3) : $2.31 $2.05 $ % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5

7 ANTERO MIDSTREAM VALUE CREATION OPPORTUNITY A unique opportunity as most Appalachian core acreage is already dedicated to third party midstream providers Increases Antero Midstream footprint and identified 5-year investment opportunity set by 15% to ~$3.5 billion (1) Attractive organic investment opportunities at 4x 7x build-out EBITDA Gathering, compression, processing and water infrastructure opportunity Additional adjacent third-party midstream opportunities Antero Resources participates in upside of full value chain buildout through 62% LP interest in Antero Midstream Antero Midstream Buildout AM Gross Dedicated Acreage (000 s) 1, /31/2015 Pro Forma Dedicated Acreage: Gathering & Compression 1. Includes projects currently under construction Dedicated Acreage: Water Services Acquired Acreage Districts with 3,000+ Antero Net Acres Existing Gathering Line Planned Gathering Line Planned Gathering Line Acquired Acreage Existing Fresh Water Line New Platform for Antero Midstream Infrastructure Buildout Compressor Station In service Compressor Station Planned on Existing Acreage Compressor Station Planned on Acquired Acreage Fresh Water Delivery Take Point Fresh Water Impoundment Planed Fresh Water Line 6

8 WETZEL COUNTY NEW PLATFORM FOR DEVELOPMENT AND CONSOLIDATION Establishes new platform for development and consolidation in Wetzel County, WV 22,000 core Marcellus liquids-rich net acres and 11,000 high-graded dry net acres Stacked pay potential with Marcellus and 18,000 highly prospective dry Utica acres Adds 435 undeveloped Marcellus locations with average lateral length of 9, high-graded liquids-rich locations 135 high-graded dry gas locations 2.5 Tcfe of Marcellus unaudited 3P reserves Latest vintage advanced completions in Wetzel County average 2.1 Bcf/1,000 estimated wellhead recoveries based on third party well results (above 1.7 Bcf/1,000 Antero type curve) 2.9 to 3.4 Bcfe/1,000 assuming ethane recovery Pre-hedge rates of return of 30% to 45% based on strip pricing as of March 31, 2016 Further upside potential with increased proppant loading Creates opportunity for further consolidation By example, Antero became the dominant player in Tyler County after consolidating nearly 85,000 gross acres (>50% of the total county acreage) since 2012 Industry - 13 Well Average Wellhead: 2.0 Bcf/1,000 Processed: 2.4 Bcfe/1,000 C2 Recovery: 2.9 Bcfe/1,000 Southern Rich 2.0 Bcf / 1,000 Acquisition Acreage Districts with 3,000+ Antero Net Acres Antero Horizontal Marcellus Wells Industry Horizontal Marcellus Wells Industry - 18 Well Average Wellhead: 1.9 Bcf/1,000 Processed: 2.3 Bcfe/1,000 C2 Recovery: 2.9 Bcfe/1,000 Industry - 17 Well Average Wellhead: 2.2 Bcf/1,000 Processed: 2.6 Bcfe/1,000 C2 Recovery: 3.4 Bcfe/1,000 Industry - 8 Well Average Wellhead: 2.6 Bcf/1,000 Processed: 2.8 Bcfe/1,000 C2 Recovery: 3.4 Bcfe/1,000 Dry Gas 2.2 Bcf / 1,000 Industry - 34 Well Average Wellhead: 2.1 Bcf/1,000 Processed: 2.3 Bcfe/1,000 C2 Recovery: 2.9 Bcfe/1,000 7

9 TYLER COUNTY STRATEGIC INFILL ACREAGE Builds upon existing footprint in Tyler County, WV 12,000 core Marcellus liquids-rich net acres acquired Stacked pay potential with Marcellus and 12,000 highly prospective dry Utica acres Adds or enhances 307 undeveloped locations with an average lateral length of 8, new locations averaging 7,700 lateral length 57 laterals extended from 5,000 to 9,700, on average Increasing working interest in 176 planned laterals from 70% to 82% 900 Bcfe of Marcellus unaudited 3P reserves Latest Antero completions in Tyler County, WV average 2.1 Bcf/1, to 3.9 Bcfe/1,000 assuming ethane recovery Pre-hedge returns of 30% to 45% based on strip pricing as of March 31, 2016 Results supported by adjacent third-party wells Further upside potential with increased proppant loading Industry - 4 Well Average Wellhead: 2.0 Bcf/1,000 Processed: 3.2 Bcfe/1,000 C2 Recovery: 3.9 Bcfe/1,000 Antero - 6 Well Average (Pierpoint Pad) Advanced Bcf/1, Bcfe/1,000 Wellhead: Processed: C2 Recovery: 3.2 Bcfe/1,000 Southern Rich ~375,000 acres 2.0 Bcf / 1,000 Antero - 5 Well Average (Coastal Pad) Advanced 1200 Wellhead: 2.0 Bcf/1,000 Processed: 2.3 Bcfe/1,000 C2 Recovery: 2.9 Bcfe/1,000 Antero - 3 Well Average (Diane Davis Pad) Advanced 1500 Wellhead: 2.3 Bcf/1,000 Processed: 2.8 Bcfe/1,000 C2 Recovery: 3.5 Bcfe/1,000 Acquisition Acreage Districts with 3,000+ Antero Net Acres Antero Horizontal Marcellus Wells Industry Horizontal Marcellus Wells Antero - 4 Well Average (RJ Smith Pad) Advanced 1200 Wellhead: 2.2 Bcf/1,000 Processed: 2.6 Bcfe/1,000 C2 Recovery: 3.2 Bcfe/1,000 Antero - 4 Well Average (Melody Pad) Advanced 1200 Wellhead: 2.1 Bcf/1,000 Processed: 2.5 Bcfe/1,000 C2 Recovery: 3.1 Bcfe/1,000 8

10 INCREASES MARCELLUS HIGH-GRADED DRY GAS INVENTORY Adds significant high quality Marcellus dry gas inventory to Antero portfolio EURs on wells with advanced completions proximate to acquired acreage range from 2.0 Bcf/1,000 to 2.6 Bcf/1,000 based on third-party well results Adds or enhances 225 dry gas locations 198 new locations averaging 9,600 lateral length 17 laterals extended from 3,500 to 10,700, on average Increasing working interest in 10 planned laterals from 92% to 99% Acquisition Acreage Districts with 3,000+ Antero Net Acres Antero Horizontal Marcellus Wells Industry Horizontal Marcellus Wells Industry - 8 Well Average Wellhead: 2.6 Bcf/1,000 Processed: 2.8 Bcfe/1,000 C2 Recovery: 3.4 Bcfe/1,000 High-Graded Dry Gas 2.2 Bcf / 1,000 Industry - 6 Well Average Wellhead: 2.2 Bcf/1,000 Marcellus Dry Gas Economics Summary (1) Estimated EUR/1, Well Cost: $8.5 $8.5 $8.5 Pre-Tax NPV-10 ($MM): $2.8 $4.8 $8.1 Pre-Tax ROR: 18% 23% 32% Payout (Years): Bcf/1000 Wellhead Type Curve (Not Inclusive of Advanced Completion Techniques) Industry - 34 Well Average Wellhead: 2.1 Bcf/1,000 Processed: 2.3 Bcfe/1,000 C2 Recovery: 2.9 Bcfe/1,000 Acquisition adds or enhances 225 undeveloped locations in dry gas areas primarily in Wetzel, Marion and Harrison Counties (<1,100 BTU) Breakeven NYMEX Gas Price ($/MMBtu): (2) $2.75 $2.48 $ /31/2016 pre-tax well economics based on a 9,000 lateral, 3/31/2016 natural gas strip pricing for , flat thereafter, and applicable firm transportation and operating costs including 50% of Antero Midstream fees. Well cost estimates include $1.2 million for road, pad and production facilities. 2. Breakeven NYMEX price for 15% pre-tax rate of return. Assumes TCO differentials to NYMEX based on strip pricing. 9

11 ACQUISITION DRIVES FIRM TRANSPORT UTILIZATION Incremental gas production from accelerated development will flow to favorably priced indices through AR s existing firm transportation portfolio Rich gas production in Tyler and Wetzel Counties will access TCO pool or Gulf Coast pricing via firm transportation commitments already in place Dry gas production in Wetzel County to flow on either AGS/Stonewall or Columbia and obtain TCO pool or Gulf Coast pricing Accelerated development would reduce future net marketing expenses Integrated Firm Transportation Portfolio Acquired Acreage Districts with 3,000+ Antero Net Acres (MMBtu/d) 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - Marcellus Firm Transport Marcellus Gross Gas Production (MMBtu/d) Marcellus Gross Gas Production Target (2) EQT M3 TGP Mid-Atlantic Columbia (TCO) 10

12 ACQUISITION SUMMARY Expands Largest Core Liquids-Rich Position in Appalachia Acquisition of 55,000 core net acres with 4.1 Tcfe of unaudited Marcellus 3P reserves Further strengthens Antero s position as the largest pure play in Appalachia and the holder of the largest core liquids-rich acreage and drilling inventory in the Marcellus Enhances Current Development Plan Establishes significant footprint in Wetzel Co, WV with 33,000 net acres, an area that has delivered average wellhead EURs of 2.0 Bcf/1,000 (rich) to 2.6 Bcf/1,000 (dry) Builds upon existing footprint in Tyler Co, WV with 12,000 net acres where Antero s early well results average 2.1 Bcf/1, production target increased to 20% 25% Provides Midstream Value Chain Bolt-on Opportunity Approximately 95% of acreage NOT dedicated to 3 rd party midstream providers, delivering significant value creation opportunity to Antero Midstream Antero has a 62% LP ownership Acquisition acreage will be dedicated to Antero Midstream $500 million of incremental midstream expansion capital identified over next 5 years, generating rates of return, on average, of 25% to 30% Optimizes Firm Transportation Portfolio Development of assets will accelerate Antero s utilization of its industry leading firm transport portfolio Substantially all incremental production accesses favorably priced markets Improves Credit Profile Equity proceeds used to fund transaction and incremental one rig program throughout 2017 Deleverages the balance sheet 11

13 CAUTIONARY NOTE Regarding Hydrocarbon Quantities The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserve estimates (collectively, 3P ). In this presentation, Antero has provided internally generated estimates for proved, probable and possible reserves in this presentation in accordance with SEC guidelines and definitions. Estimates of Antero s actual proved, probable and possible reserves as of December 31, 2015 included in this presentation have been audited by Antero s third-party engineers. Estimates of proved, probable and possible reserves of the acquired acreage and of Antero pro forma for the acquisition were not audited by third party engineers. Unless otherwise noted, reserve estimates as of December 31, 2015 assume ethane rejection and strip pricing. In this presentation, Antero uses estimated ultimate recovery, EURs, resource potential and similar terms to describe potentially recoverable hydrocarbon quantities that are not permitted to be used in filings with the SEC. Antero includes these estimates to demonstrate what management believes to be the potential for future drilling and production on our properties. These estimates are by their nature much more speculative than estimates of proved reserves and would require substantial additional capital spending over significant number of years to implement recovery. Actual quantities that may be ultimately recovered from Antero s interests may differ substantially from the estimates in this press release. Factors affecting ultimate recovery include the scope of Antero s ongoing drilling program, which will be directly affected by commodity prices, the availability of capital, drilling and production costs, availability of drilling services and equipment, drilling results, lease expirations, transportation constraints, regulatory approvals and other factors, and actual drilling results, including geological and mechanical factors affecting recovery rates. Certain reserve quantities included in this release assume partial ethane rejection where sales demand for ethane is not available. Ethane rejection occurs when ethane is left in the wellhead natural gas stream when the natural gas is processed, rather than being separated out and sold as a liquid after fractionation. When ethane is left in the gas stream, the Btu content of the residue natural gas at the outlet of the processing plant is higher. Producers will generally elect to reject ethane at the processing plant when the price received for the ethane in the natural gas stream is greater than the price received for the ethane being sold as a liquid after fractionation, net of fractionation costs. When ethane is recovered in the processing plant, the Btu content of the residue natural gas is lower, but a producer is then able to recover the value of the ethane sold as a separate natural gas liquid product. In addition, natural gas processing plants can produce the other NGL products (propane, normal butane, isobutene and natural gasoline) while rejecting ethane. In this presentation: 3P reserves refer to Antero s estimated aggregate proved, probable and possible reserves as of December 31, The SEC prohibits companies from aggregating proved, probable and possible reserves in filings with the SEC due to the different levels of certainty associated with each reserve category. EUR, or Estimated Ultimate Recovery, refers to Antero s internal estimates of per well hydrocarbon quantities that may be potentially recovered from a hypothetical future well completed as a producer in the area. These quantities do not necessarily constitute or represent reserves within the meaning of the Society of Petroleum Engineer s Petroleum Resource Management System or the SEC s oil and natural gas disclosure rules. Condensate refers to gas having a heat content between 1250 BTU and 1300 BTU in the Utica Shale. Highly-Rich Gas/Condensate refers to gas having a heat content between 1275 BTU and 1350 BTU in the Marcellus Shale and 1225 BTU and 1250 BTU in the Utica Shale. Highly-Rich Gas refers to gas having a heat content between 1200 BTU and 1275 BTU in the Marcellus Shale and 1200 BTU and 1225 BTU in the Utica Shale. Rich Gas refers to gas having a heat content of between 1100 BTU and 1200 BTU. Dry Gas refers to gas containing insufficient quantities of hydrocarbons heavier than methane to allow their commercial extraction or to require their removal in order to render the gas suitable for fuel use. 12